BBA Ballot: NL Willie Mays Award

A 20-year-old Willie Mays won the Rookie of the Year Award way back in 1951 with a line that looks eerily like those of this year's major candidates, Jason Heyward and Buster Posey:

Mays: 464 AB, 59 R, 127 H, 22 2B, 5 3B, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 7 SB, .274/.356/.472
Heyward: 520 AB, 83 R, 144 H, 29 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 11 SB, .277/.393/.456
Posey: 406 AB, 58 R, 124 H, 23 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 0 SB, .305/.357/.505

Clearly, based on the standard-bearer for the BBA's award for rookie excellence, Heyward and Posey are both excellent candidates.  Heyward's appearance of similarity is even boosted by the fact that he's an African-American outfielder who was also 20 years of age for the majority of his rookie season.  As he's substantially larger than Mays and plays right field for the Braves, the even more tempting comparison is Hammerin' Hank Aaron, who also broke in at age 20, in 1954, and although he lost the Rookie of the Year to Wally Moon, his stats for that season will look pretty familiar:

Aaron: 468 AB, 58 R, 131 H, 27 2B, 7 3B, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 2 SB, .280/.322/.447

Am I proposing that Heyward and Posey are destined to be the rivals of two of the best players in the history of the game?  Certainly not.  Plenty of rookies have equaled, or even surpassed these stats only to have their development fizzle after a couple seasons in the majors.  But to produce in such a fashion, at such a young age, while hitting at the center of playoff-bound lineups, is a pretty exceptional feat, and both have sparked the imaginations of their fan bases to an extent which warrants this lofty comparison.  The drama is further heightened by the face they their teams are currently squaring off in the NLDS.  So, who do I give precedence in my second-annual BBA Awards ballot?

First off, the best of the rest:

Honorable Mention: Jhoulys Chacin (Rockies), Starlin Castro (Cubs), Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Jonny Venters (Braves), Daniel Hudson (D-Backs), Tyler Colvin (Cubs), Neil Walker (Pirates), Mike Stanton (Marlins), Travis Wood (Reds), Pedro Alvarez (Pirates), Hisanori Takahashi (Mets), Gaby Sanchez (Marlins), Ike Davis (Mets), John Axford (Brewers), Logan Morrison (Marlins), Chris Johnson (Astros)

Third Place: Jaime Garcia (Cardinals)

Because Garcia faltered a little in September and was prematurely shut down, I was tempted to make a case for Jhoulys Chacin, who actually got better as the year went on, finishing off the regular season with a 1.44 ERA in his last eight starts, and was superior to Garcia in both strikeouts and WHIP.  But although Chacin is probably much closer than many people think (according to FanGraphs he trails Garcia by only 0.2 in WAR), Garcia still has the edge, thanks mainly to his truly extraordinary ERA (2.70) and the fact that he made seven more starts than Chacin (who spent part of the season in Colorado's bullpen) and threw 26 more total innings.  It has been a long, long time since an NL rookie posted an ERA like Garcia's.  No pitcher with 120+ innings has done it in the 21st century (Roy Oswalt came fairly close, 2.73, way back in 2001).

And now, the main event:

Second Place: Jason Heyward (Braves)
First Place: Buster Posey (Giants)

In the end, what it came down to for me was the Posey should not be penalized for Brian Sabean's mistakes.  The Braves were very adamant this spring that they were going to put their top prospect in the Opening Day lineup because they considered themselves legitimate contenders and they didn't want to jeopardize wins in Bobby Cox's final year just so they could get one more year of arbitration at the backend of Heyward's tenure in Atlanta.  The Giants, unfortunately, went the opposite route, leaving Posey in the minors until June and renting Bengie Molina for a couple unhappy months.  It's probably safe to say that Posey would've been worth one or two wins had he joined the team in April, but the Giants nonetheless edged into the postseason, so I guess they got the best of both worlds.  My point is, had Posey gotten the approximately 20% more ABs that Heyward has, he definitely would've beaten him in the majority of the counting categories.  Heyward only has a healthy lead in runs, steals, and triples.  In addition to having superior rates stats, for the most part, Posey plays a far more valuable position.

Imagine if the Giants had been forced to put Posey, probably their best hitter, at first base or in right field.  It would've limited their ability to use the outfield platoons which were so successful for them in the second half, instead leaning on light-hitting catchers like Molina or Eli Whiteside.  Posey was no Mike Piazza either.  His 37.1 CS% trails only Yadier Molina, Miguel Olivo, and Russell Martin among NL catchers who played at least 62 games, and his 3.18 Catcher's ERA was second to Yorvit Torrealba.  I don't mean to suggest that Heyward was a slouch (3rd in UZR among NL right-fielders), but no outfielder can possibly equal the defensive contribution of an outstanding catcher.

R.I.P. 2010 Rockies?

Most obituaries for the Rockies season will probably lead with the fact that coming off a 13-2 stretch which helped them climb to within a game of the division lead, they dropped three in a row to the Arizona Diamondbacks, a last place team that is playing without their best hitter (Justin Upton) and has a decimated starting rotation (having lost Brandon Webb to injury and traded away Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson).

This is certainly a logical place to begin, however, I'm going to focus instead on the stretch in mid-July, just following the All-Star Break when the Rox dropped 11 of 13.  At that time, they had also just completed a hot stretch which had moved them to within a game of first place, but they proceeded to lose four straight series, not only to good teams like the Phillies and Reds, but also to bottom-feeders like the Marlins and Pirates.  We are reminded ad nauseum this time of year that "every game counts," and the Rockies will probably be haunted by that axiom this winter as much as any team.

When they were still hanging around .500 at the end of July, we were reminded again and again of the team's propensity for late-season heroics.  And, sure enough, when September began they reeled off a ten-game winning streak.  But, alas, that wasn't enough.  What really doomed the Rockies was not the D-Backs sweep or this past weekend's tough losses in a hard-fought series with the division-leading Giants.  What doomed the Rockies were those eight blown saves they posted in April and May while they were waiting for Huston Street to come off the D.L.   Also of crucial importance were those 15 starts that got handed to Greg Smith (6.23 ERA) and Esmil Rogers (6.47 ERA) while Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa, and Jeff Francis were on the shelf.   We might also point out that losing streak in July corresponded with Troy Tulowitzki's rather serious wrist injury.

So, the Rockies, who many, including myself, favored to win the NL West this season, will not be returning to the postseason.  Still, there are some good things to take away from their 2010 campaign:

Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez may qualify as the two biggest breakout players in the National League.  CarGo threatened to make a run at the Triple Crown before Albert Pujols took a commanding lead in homers during the final month.  He'll get MVP consideration, but will likely lose some votes to his teammate, Tulowitzki, and be penalized by some voters for his drastic home/road splits.  Nevertheless, he became a star during his age 24 season and won't even be eligible for arbitration until 2012.

Jimenez, who the Rockies wisely signed to a long-term deal prior to the season, will also get considerable support during the awards voting.  Presumably, those that believe that Coors Field was too friendly to Gonzalez will be mighty impressed by Ubaldo's 9-1 record, 1.26 WHIP, and 3.23 ERA in the thin air.  He was even better on the road (10-6, 2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).

Tulowitzki is still making a run at the all-time record for homers in the month of September.  He's currently two back of Babe Ruth and Albert Belle (17).  His spectacular hot stretch - 1070 OPS, 18 HR, 61 RBI in 54 games since returning - must be a major relief to the Colorado brass, as wrist injuries often leave hitters sapped of their power for several seasons after they are fully healed (i.e. Derrek Lee, David Ortiz).  Tulo's was mild by comparison and he is clearly no longer feeling any ill effects.

Colorado has also found a solid young starter to plug in behind Jimenez and De La Rosa.  Since being promoted to the rotation permanently at the beginning of August, Jhoulys Chacin has gone 4-2 with a 1.98 ERA in 50 IP.

This was probably the first year that Colorado fans truly expected their team to be contenders, so it can't help but be disappointing to see them falling short in September, especially to teams with considerable flaws like San Diego and Atlanta.  However, there are many competitive season left for this incarnation of the Rox.  I expect to see them playing postseason baseball again very soon.  

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Ten)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to the next post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Other Pitching Prospects

We may be yet a month or more away from the much-anticipated arrivals of Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman.  In the meantime, however, a number of top pitching prospects are taking advantage of injuries and April inefficiencies.  Here are the most noteworthy:

Brett Cecil - Blue Jays (1-1, 3.55 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 11 K, 12 2/3 IP)

Last week Cecil replaced the injured Brian Tallet at the backend of the Jays rotation.  His initial starting assignments were a bit unfortunate, on the road against the red-hot Rays and at home against the streaking Red Sox, but the 23-year-old faired relatively well, managing at least six innings on both occasions.  He struck out eight Rays (though he yielded a pair of homers) and held the Sox scoreless for the first five innings.  Next week he'll get a more favorable matchup against the Indians.

Cecil is a top prospect, who throws in the mid-nineties with a wicked curve.  He got half a season worth of work last year, going 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA and a very poor strikeout to walk ratio (1.82).  This year, however, he seems to have corrected that problem.  In two starts at AAA he struck out eleven while walking on two.  And in his first two starts in the majors?  He's struck out eleven while walking only two.  A small sample size, no doubt, but certainly encouraging.  Cecil should be owned in AL-only leagues and is a solid spot-start option against weaker lineups in the mixed leagues.  Trips to New York, Boston, and Tampa could be a little rough on him, but I expect him to hold onto his spot in the rotation, even after the return of Tallet and Dustin McGowan.

Jhoulys Chacin - Rockies (3-0, 1.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 21 K, 21 1/3 IP @ AAA)

Chacin got the call when Colorado had to send Jason Hammel and Jorge De La Rosa to the D.L.  He's just 22-years-old, with nasty stuff, but like Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales at his age, he's wild.  Nobody can put a bat on him in Colorado Springs, but he's averaging upwards of six walks per nine innings in eight starts at AAA, dating back to last fall.  That won't fly in the show.

However, his first start comes against the free-swinging Giants, in San Francisco.  That's a favorable match-up.  Unless he's dominant, this is probably nothing more than a month-long audition, as De La Rosa, Hammel, and Jeff Francis are all likely to return sometime in June, if not before.

Jaime Garcia - Cardinals (2-1, 1.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 17 K, 26 IP)

Garcia has surged in front of Jason Heyward as the early NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner.  His walk rate (3.1 BB/9) is mild cause for concern, but otherwise his April record is fairly spotless, though we should note that he's faced only one lineup, Milwaukee, that's in the top half of the NL in scoring (the Brewers are, however, #1, and he shut them down).

There's no obvious back-up plan in St. Louis, so Garcia will have a long leash, even if he takes some lumps during his second run through the league.  Garcia clearly understands the Dave Duncan philosophy.  His groudball rate (71.2%) is currently tops in all of baseball.

Ian Kennedy - Diamondbacks (1-1, 4.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 27 K, 30 1/3 IP)

I know I've been writing about Kennedy every week for the past two months, but following another strong start this afternoon against the Cubs, I can't help but mention him again.  He's been pitching to contact in his past two starts and, as a result, has gone eight inning deep in each of them.  He's still giving up a disconcerting number of longballs (6 HR), but he limits baserunners (2.4 BB/9) and is capable of racking up strikeouts (8.0 K/9).  I think he's mixed-league worthy at this point, especially following strong outings against two fairly potent lineups (Phillies are #2 in NL, Cubs are #8).

Mike Leake - Reds (2-0, 3.25 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 18 K, 27 2/3 IP)


His starts haven't always been pretty, but so far Leake has been the most effective pitcher in the Cincinnati rotation, probably assuring that he won't be the one getting replaced by Chapman in the coming month.  Leake has kept the ball on the ground in the Great American SmallPark (59.3%) and has shown improved control in his last two starts (only three walks in his last fourteen innings, after giving up twelve walks in his first fourteen innings).  He throws lots of pitches with lots of movement, which makes for enjoyable viewing, but you do get the sense that the wheels will eventually come off, at least for a start or two.


Mitch Talbot - Indians (3-1, 2.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7 K, 26 1/3 IP)

Definitely the most overlooked rookie this month, Talbot has three victories, despite pitching in front of an anemic offense.  There is nothing about the 26-year-old's minor-league track record which suggests he can keep this up and the having more walks (11) than strikeouts (7) is rarely a path to success in the majors.  However, it's hard to argue that Talbot has had an easy time of it thusfar.  His wins came against the White Sox, Twins, and Angels.  Like his teammate, Fausto Carmona, he's been keeping his pitch count down by rolling lots of groundballs.  At the beginning of the season, Talbot looked like the odd man out, were Carlos Carrasco or Aaron Laffey to get off to a strong start at AAA, but for now his position is probably pretty safe.

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...The Rockies Hang Their First NL West Flag

The Rockies have an NL Pennant (from 2007) and have been to the postseason three time ('95, '07, '09), but they are the embodiment of the Wild Card era, having come into existence only two year prior to its invention, and utilizing it for every one of their playoff bids.  This is the year that Colorado finally surges to the front of the NL West.

I've been putting off making my western division predictions for both leagues, as I there are a number of reasonable contenders in each of west coast division.  In fact, while participating in the Inside Pulse Sports "30 Teams in 30 Days" roundtables, I think I ended up predicting that four teams in the NL West would finish in third place in order to prevent myself from having to make a strong case for any one of them.

Since those roundtables, there have been a few significant developments.  First, Russell Martin went down with a groin pull.  It isn't expected to cost 'Trane more than a couple weeks of regular season play, but knowing Martin's intensity, you have to wonder whether he will be patient with the rehabilitation process.  Groin injuries can dog a player for much longer than they should if not allowed to fully heal.  A bounceback season from Martin is absolutely key for the Dodgers if they hope to make Joe Torre three-for-three in NL West title attempts.

Also, after early progress, Brandon Webb's rehabilitation has stalled.  It now appears certain that he will begin the season on the DL, with no clear timetable for this return.  With Webb and Dan Haren as co-Aces, followed by Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, the D-Backs had a formidable rotation.  It looks much, much different with two gaping holes at the backend.

Most recently, the Rockies closer, Huston Street, has been diagnosed with a shoulder injury, which will almost certainly cost him a couple months, if not the whole season.  Franklin Morales is the early favorite to take over the closer role, but the Rockies also have two other pitchers with considerable closing experience, Rafael Betancourt and Manny Corpas.  There are also reports that the Rockies have been considering re-signing Joe Beimel or trading for Juan Cruz, although neither is likely to enter the competition for saves.

Giants camp hasn't been completely free of setbacks either.  Freddy Sanchez is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day and Mark DeRosa remains somewhat questionable.  Madison Bumgarner, the early favorite for the fifth spot in the rotation, showed a significant decline in velocity in his first couple outings, provoking worry.

All of this suggests, what probably should be assumed from the start, that with four very competitive teams, the NL West will be determined largely by health and depth.