Fantastic Thoughts: Is Pujols still King?

I was doing a little Black Friday browsing, looking at various summation in the wake of the 2010 fantasy baseball season and I was surprised to see several early rankings for 2011 that had unfamiliar names at the top.

Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN started his Top 50 with Hanley Ramirez.   The guys at Bleacher GM were split between Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto.  I even saw a few cautious arguments for Carlos Gonzalez (how far we've come in one year).

I don't buy it.

For a couple years now there has been arguments for Han-Ram based exclusively on his positional eligibility.  There are several stat-hogging first-baseman around, but no shortstop comes within striking distance of Ramirez.  Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins have been dogged by injuries two years running.  In case you haven't heard, Derek Jeter is in decline.  Michael Young switched positions.  Troy Tulowitzki's been consistently inconsistent.

But, while Han-Ram still has a huge edge over the rest of the shortstop class and is very much in his prime at the age of 27, he's also coming off his worst season since 2006.  Even taking into account three-year averages, he's just not in the same weight class as Albert Pujols in the typical 5 X 5 categories:

Pujols: .331 AVG, 113 R, 42 HR, 123 RBI, 12 SB
Ramirez: .314 AVG, 106 R, 26 HR, 83 RBI, 31 SB

It's an old adage, but positional scarcity just isn't relevant in the first round.  You need to select a stat-hoarder with the #1 pick and Pujols is the premier stat-hoarder...and has been for a decade.

That, of course, is what's fueling the case for guys like CarGo and Votto.  Whereas Pujols is now in his thirties, and has suffered moderate declines in AVG, OBP, and OPS in each of the last two seasons, Gonzalez and Votto are coming off MVP-level campaigns and are still in their mid-twenties.  However,  youth cuts both ways.  CarGo won me several leagues this past season, but even I can recognize that his home/road splits are a bit disturbing and his BABIP was unsustainable.  I expect Gonzalez will continue to improve some aspects of his game, including his aggression on the basepaths and perhaps even his power, but there's potential for regression also.

I would also observe that, as good as Votto was, he did most of his damage in the midsummer months, got progressively less productive down the stretch, and had only one lonely hit in the playoffs.  Is that evidence that opponents had developed some kind of moderately effective scouting report?  Maybe, maybe not.  But I don't want to expend the #1 pick in the draft on a guy who could very easily revert back to his admirable, but not spectacular '08/'09 rates (.309-76-25-84-6).

Yes, both CarGo and Votto have advantages over Pujols in terms of more hitter-friendly ballparks, deeper lineups, and younger legs, but what they proved capable of doing for the first time in 2010, Pujols has done for a decade.  Coming off another year in which he led the NL in HR and RBI, he's given us absolutely no reason to think he's ready to stop.

Which brings us to Miguel Cabrera...

This is the argument I find most compelling.  If it weren't for the existence of Pujols, we'd be talking a whole lot more about what Miggy has done through the first seven full seasons of his career.  Let's put them side by side with the previous standard for consistency in first-base sluggers:

Lou Gehrig ('25-'31): 1053 G, 929 R, 232 HR, 981 RBI, .341/.443/.642
Miguel Cabrera ('04-'10): 1103 G, 702 R, 235 HR, 817 RBI, .317/.392/.558
Albert Pujols ('01-'07): 1091 G, 847 R, 282 HR, 861 RBI, .332/.420/.620

As you can see, Cabrera's only a nose behind the legends, despite the fact that he's played on far inferior teams.  With consistency and production on par with Pujols, especially in recent years, Cabrera's supporters can actually argue three distinct advantages.  1.) Cabrera is three years younger and coming off the best year of his career thusfar.  The bulk of his prime may still be in front of him.  Scary.  2.) He plays in the AL, where he has the luxury of taking an occasional game at DH, so his bat stays in the lineup (in an of itself, this explains why Cabrera has gotten a dozen more games than Pujols in the first seven years of his career).  3.) Miggy doesn't have any lingering injuries.  Obviously, Pujols has never missed significant time either, but he's had a pair of reconstructive surgeries on his right elbow, prompting ongoing speculation that he might eventually need Tommy John, which would undoubtedly send him to the D.L.

On this basis, I wouldn't fault somebody for taking Cabrera first.  I wouldn't do it myself, but I appreciate the rationale.

Gold Gloves Meaningless, Laughable...As Usual

For those of you acquainted with the sabermetric argument for defensive statistics, there won't be much news here, but I want to make my annual rant about the Gold Glove voting, which serious students of the game stopped taking seriously a long time ago, but which is still used to incentivize contracts, on Hall of Fame plaques, and by a hoard of ignorant pundits annually.  Here's the basics.

Obviously, we all prefer the aspects of the game which can be measured with our own eyes.  Unfortunately, defense is something that can only effectively evaluated over the long term (even one season is kind of a small sample size).  Every athlete in the league is capable of the occasional web gem.  We can't allow ourselves to be conned into hyperbolic attestations based on a single play or short series of plays spanning a few games.  As a result, nobody can hope to see enough baseball each season to be capable of making reasoned judgements without consulting some form of statistic.  If you watch your team everyday, you probably know pretty confidently which of your defenders are good, great, fine, weak, and ugly, and you could probably get confirmation of those observations using statistics.  But you can't make a reasoned, objective judgment about how your shortstop or left-fielder stacks up against the rest of the league, because you watch the 29 other teams but rarely.  To make the Gold Glove a meaningful award, the voters have to rely of some conglomeration of statistics.  Otherwise they are, as I've stated ad nauseum, meaningless and laugable.  

I openly admit that no defensive metric is perfect.  Every position demands a variety of skills and every player brings a different tools to the table.  Vlad Guerrero still has an exceptional throwing arm, but as he showed during Game One of the World Series, he's no longer very flexible or fleet of foot.  Juan Pierre has exceptional speed, but has a noodle arm and the tendency to take meandering routes to balls in the gap.  Any defensive assessment is, at last, imperfect, regardless of how much observational and statistical data we bring to the table.  We should, however, recognize that the advanced metrics (UZR is the most readily available) are based upon the charting of every play that every player is involved in.  As such, they do a lot of work that our eyes cannot.  There are flaws in the charting systems, certainly, but they get better with every passing year.  And, if you are really geeked on defense, you can look at something like John Dewan's Fielding Bible, which will breakdown not only "overall" defensive performance, but analyze how players approach specific types of plays (coming in v. going out, up-the-middle v. in-the-hole, around the bag v. off the line, etc.).

Since no one stat tells the whole story (although UZR comes pretty close), certain comparisons are too close to call.  Rob Neyer might suggest that Brett Gardner was marginally better than Carl Crawford this year, but both were extremely good.  And Neyer would happily admit that the small difference between them could be related to their ballparks, pitching staffs, and the simple fact that they didn't get exactly the same set of potential chances.  As such, I don't think it's all that unreasonable to give Crawford the hardware.  He's been an elite defensive outfielder for far longer than Gardner, so we know there's nothing the least bit flukey about his 2010 numbers.  The same can honestly be said about the choice of Evan Longoria over Adrian Beltre and Kevin Kouzmanoff, the choice of Troy Tulowitzki over Brendan Ryan, the choice of Albert Pujols over Ike Davis, etc.

All told, I'd say 13 of the 18 Gold Glove recipients were at least modestly deserving this season, which is actually pretty good, so I'm going to reserve my comments for the ones who clearly weren't:

AL SS (9 Q):	UZR	RF	FPCT	ZR	OOZ	RngR	ErrR	INN	Errors
Derek Jeter	-4.7 (#7)	3.78 (#8)	.989 (#1)	6.63 (#2)	38 (#9)	-11.8 (#9)	6.5 (#1)	1303 (#4)	6 (#1)
Elvis Andrus	0.1 (#4)	4.48 (#4)	.976 (#4)	5.61 (#6)	46 (#6)	1.3 (#4)	-2.6 (#8)	1291 (#5)	16 (#4)
Cliff Pennington	9.9 (#2)	4.93 (#1)	.966 (#7)	5.01 (#9)	53 (#4)	9.4 (#1)	0.6 (#5)	1304 (#3)	25 (#9)
Alexei Ramirez	10.8 (#1)	4.89 (#2)	.974 (#6)	5.09 (#8)	67 (#1)	8.4 (#2)	1.0 (#4)	1376 (#1)	20 (#7)

Let's get this out of the way.  Derek Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove for his performance in 2010.  Jeter has become the posterchild for all that is wrong with the voting process.  There's no doubt, in fact, that the exposes which originated out of Baseball Prospectus a few years back actually spurred Jeter to rededicate himself to defense and in '08 and '09 he was better than he'd ever been (though still not nearly the best).  At this point, however, his age has merely caught up to him, and even stalwart Yankee fans will admit he's mediocre...at best.  He has hardly any mobility on either side and has one of the weakest arms at his position.

What he is, however, is very sure-handed on balls hit directly at him, which explains his league-leading fielding percentage.  It also explains why Alexei Ramirez created nearly twice as many outs outside the average shortstop zone and was involved in nearly 100 more plays.  According to FanGraphs, all that range (not to mention his incredible throwing arm) helped Ramirez to save his team approximately fifteen more runs than Captain Intangible over the course of the 2010 season.

Jeter's isn't the only Gold Glove causing accusations of Yankee bias...

BBA Ballot: Stan Musial Award

I'm going to have plenty to say about what I consider the most exciting World Series matchup since at least 2005, but there's plenty of time between now and Game One.  So, to prevent myself from being distracted by the BBA Award deadline, which unfortunately falls during the Series, I'm going to go ahead and get in my ballot for the most valuable position player in each league:

American League:

10. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
9. Paul Konerko (White Sox)

Let's begin with a couple of players from the AL Central who will probably be largely overlooked.  Konerko had a career year at the age of 34, driving in 111 with 39 bombs, while batting .312 with a career high 977 OPS.  Without his tremendous performance, it's hard to imagine the Sox would've hung with the Twins for as long as they did.  Choo's team, of course, didn't hang with anybody, unless you count the Royals, who barely beat the Indians out for worst team in the division.  Choo, however, hitting in a lineup absent of other threats, continued his ascension towards the top of the AL with his second consecutive 20/20 season.  He hit .300 with a .401 OBP and drove in 90 runs, while playing a very commendable right field.

8. Joe Mauer (Twins)

It may have seemed a disappointing season when compared with his MVP campaign in 2009, but Mauer is still a premium defensive catcher who finished third in the league in hitting (.327) and OBP (.402).  With no Morneau in the second-half, he was the driving force in a lineup that was among the best in baseball, while also guiding a rotation which dramatically outperformed expectations.  Will he be worth $20 Million in 2018?  That remains to be seen, but he certainly was this season.

7. Evan Longoria (Rays)
6. Carl Crawford (Rays)

It was difficult to separate the Rays studs, who actually finished in a tie for third in the AL in WAR (6.9, also tied with Jose Bautista).  Longoria was the RBI man (102) with power (32 HR), while Crawford was the speedy table-setter (110 R, 47 SB), who also posted plenty of extra-base hits (62).  Both played exceptional defense at their positions, hit for high averages, and played basically every game.  Crawford, of course, benefitted from having Longoria batting behind him, while Longoria benefitted from frequently having Crawford on base in front of him, driving pitchers crazy.  This could easily be flip-flopped, but I gave Crawford the slight edge.

5. Adrian Beltre (Red Sox)

The Red Sox played much of their season without Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron.  When you lose more than half your Opening Day starting lineup, you're not supposed to win 89 games, particularly in the AL Easy.  The main reason the BoSox stayed in the hunt until the final weeks of the season was Adrian Beltre, who was nothing short of spectacular both offensively and defensively.  He led the AL in doubles, was fourth in the league in hitting, and fifth in OPS.  His 11.8 UZR was easily the best among third-basemen.

4. Robinson Cano (Yankees)

The Yankees postseason lineup featured five players making more money than Cano, but there's no denying who New York's MVP was in 2010, both during the regular season and in October.  Cano, who the Yankees have signed through 2013, has turned into a real bargain.  Not only did he set career highs in HR (29), RBI (109), and OPS (914), while again hitting well above .300, but he also made dramatic strides with his fielding for the second straight season.

3. Jose Bautista (Blue Jays)

Bautista's season was nothing short of remarkable.  The 30-year-old breakout sensation was the first player to break the 50 HR plateau since 2007, and had 15 more bombs than any other player in the American League.  Bautista also showed excellent plate discipline (100 BB/116 K) and versatility, by playing 3B as well as both corner outfield spots.  Many will question his ability to duplicate this type of performance, but all the underlying metrics, including his spectacularly low .233 BABIP, suggest this was not a fluke.

2. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)

Miggy led the league in OBP (.420), OPS+ (179), and RBI (126), among other things, while hitting at the center of a beleaguered lineup, which is why he also led the league in intentional walks (32).  Clearly, his offseason pledge to stay off the sauce paid major dividends for the Tigers and his massive contract has thusfar been warranted.  In fact, one gets the sense that, at 27, Miggy's best years are still in front of him, which is frightening, considering he's gotten MVP votes every year since he entered the league.  If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably be talking about this eight-year stretch as among the best ever to begin a career.

1. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)

Every day is a challenge for Hamilton...outside the lines.  But he proved again this year that when he's healthy - physically and mentally - the game of baseball is actually pretty easy for him.  His 8.0 WAR paced baseball, even though he missed most of the final month of the season.  He won his first batting titles, led the AL in OPS, and played excellent defense in both center and left.  Most importantly, the team he led made their first trip to the postseason in over a decade, won their first playoff series, and has now punched their first ticket to the World Series.  None of that happens without Hamilton.

National League:

10. Andres Torres (Giants)

Certainly, Torres is among the best "feel good" stories of the 2010 season.  However, most people don't realize that he actually finished 7th in the NL in WAR (6.0), ahead of preeminent names like Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun.  Certainly, Torres was good as the Giants leadoff hitter, bring power (67 extra-base hits) and speed (26 SB), but he was outstanding in the outfield, easily leading the league with a 21.2 UZR.  Flanked on both sides by below average fielders, Torres' defensive range, as much as anything, explains why the Giants season really took off after he was made an everyday player.

9. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)

Although it was a disappointing season overall for the Cardinals, Holliday definitely lived up to expectations in his first full season in St. Louis, hitting .312 with 28 HR and 103 RBI.  He provided exactly what the Cardinals were looking for in terms of protecting El Hombre.

8. Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)

As A-Gonz goes, so go the Padres.  He carried his team through much of the season and, at the All-Star Break, was probably neck-and-neck with Pujols and Votto in terms of MVP consideration.  However, he fell off slightly in the second half and slumped dramatically down the stretch (.200 AVG in final 17 games), and the surprising Padres ended up falling short of a playoff berth.  Still, 31 HR, 101 RBI, and a 904 OPS playing at PETCO Park and hitting in the middle of a terribly lineup is very, very impressive.  Someday Gonzo will leave San Diego and when he does, the numbers could be truly terrifying.

7. Jayson Werth (Phillies)

In the past, Werth has always been a great compliment to the cast of MVP candidates at the top of the Philadelphia lineup.  This year, however, J-Roll, Utley, and Howard all spent significant time on the DL, and Werth was the only constant.  He rose to the occasion and helped the Phillies put up the best record in baseball, despite their plague of injuries.

6. Aubrey Huff (Giants)

I made the Huff for MVP case a couple weeks ago.  I'm not going to rehash the details, but, clearly, Huff was the only constant at the heart of the lineup for the eventual pennant-winners and he also showed versatility and was surprisingly efficient in the field.  Not enough to warrant top five consideration, but a very commendable season for the journeyman.

5. Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)

If Colorado had made the postseason the back of Tulo's historic September (15 HR, 40 RBI, 1120 OPS), he might've cracked the top three.  Tulo, of course, also brings outstanding defensive prowess at a key position, but the fact that he missed a quarter of the season holds him back slightly.

4. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)

Another guy who flashes some major leather, but also missed a substantial amount of time, unfortunately.  If you don't live in D. C., you may not have noticed how good Z-Pack was this year.  Even with his trip to the disabled list, he managed to finish third in the NL in WAR (7.2).

3. Joey Votto (Reds)
2. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
1. Albert Pujols (Cardinals)

This is, of course, the much-publicized battle, as each of these guys seemed like Triple Crown threats at one point or another.  In the end, they all finished top five in the league in nearly all the major categories.  Pujols paced the senior circuit in homers (42) and RBI (118), while CarGo won the batting title (.336) and Votto the OPS crown (1024).  But in none of these categories did one have a tremendous advantage over the others.  You could say that CarGo's numbers are inflated by the Coor Field factor, but, of course, Great American Ballpark isn't exactly a pitchers park.  You could say that Votto's numbers are inflated because he was hitting at the center of the NL's most productive lineup, but the Rockies (#3) and Cardinals (#6) weren't that far behind.  Freakishly, all three of these guys also had double-digit steals, so it was difficult to make an argument for CarGo based on his clearly better speed.  You can make a strong argument for ranking these guys in any order, but here's my rationale.

1.) It ain't that easy being Albert.  Even with Holliday batting behind him, Pujols once again led the NL in intentional passes, for the third year in a row.  While Votto and CarGo are still earning the respect of the league, Pujols frequently gets the Bonds treatment, where opposing managers choose to force somebody else to beat them.  This helps his run totals (he led the league with 115) and OBP (.414), but makes those RBI seem even more exceptional.

2.) For power-hitters, Votto and CarGo don't have extremely high strikeout rates, but Pujols is just flat-out superhuman.  For the eighth consecutive season he walked more than he struck out (103/76).  Again, that's Bonds-esque.

3.) All three of these guys are good defenders, but Pujols is one of the best ever at his position.  And, CarGo gets a little bonus because of his ability to play center, a premium defensive position.  

R.I.P. 2010 Rockies?

Most obituaries for the Rockies season will probably lead with the fact that coming off a 13-2 stretch which helped them climb to within a game of the division lead, they dropped three in a row to the Arizona Diamondbacks, a last place team that is playing without their best hitter (Justin Upton) and has a decimated starting rotation (having lost Brandon Webb to injury and traded away Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson).

This is certainly a logical place to begin, however, I'm going to focus instead on the stretch in mid-July, just following the All-Star Break when the Rox dropped 11 of 13.  At that time, they had also just completed a hot stretch which had moved them to within a game of first place, but they proceeded to lose four straight series, not only to good teams like the Phillies and Reds, but also to bottom-feeders like the Marlins and Pirates.  We are reminded ad nauseum this time of year that "every game counts," and the Rockies will probably be haunted by that axiom this winter as much as any team.

When they were still hanging around .500 at the end of July, we were reminded again and again of the team's propensity for late-season heroics.  And, sure enough, when September began they reeled off a ten-game winning streak.  But, alas, that wasn't enough.  What really doomed the Rockies was not the D-Backs sweep or this past weekend's tough losses in a hard-fought series with the division-leading Giants.  What doomed the Rockies were those eight blown saves they posted in April and May while they were waiting for Huston Street to come off the D.L.   Also of crucial importance were those 15 starts that got handed to Greg Smith (6.23 ERA) and Esmil Rogers (6.47 ERA) while Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa, and Jeff Francis were on the shelf.   We might also point out that losing streak in July corresponded with Troy Tulowitzki's rather serious wrist injury.

So, the Rockies, who many, including myself, favored to win the NL West this season, will not be returning to the postseason.  Still, there are some good things to take away from their 2010 campaign:

Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez may qualify as the two biggest breakout players in the National League.  CarGo threatened to make a run at the Triple Crown before Albert Pujols took a commanding lead in homers during the final month.  He'll get MVP consideration, but will likely lose some votes to his teammate, Tulowitzki, and be penalized by some voters for his drastic home/road splits.  Nevertheless, he became a star during his age 24 season and won't even be eligible for arbitration until 2012.

Jimenez, who the Rockies wisely signed to a long-term deal prior to the season, will also get considerable support during the awards voting.  Presumably, those that believe that Coors Field was too friendly to Gonzalez will be mighty impressed by Ubaldo's 9-1 record, 1.26 WHIP, and 3.23 ERA in the thin air.  He was even better on the road (10-6, 2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).

Tulowitzki is still making a run at the all-time record for homers in the month of September.  He's currently two back of Babe Ruth and Albert Belle (17).  His spectacular hot stretch - 1070 OPS, 18 HR, 61 RBI in 54 games since returning - must be a major relief to the Colorado brass, as wrist injuries often leave hitters sapped of their power for several seasons after they are fully healed (i.e. Derrek Lee, David Ortiz).  Tulo's was mild by comparison and he is clearly no longer feeling any ill effects.

Colorado has also found a solid young starter to plug in behind Jimenez and De La Rosa.  Since being promoted to the rotation permanently at the beginning of August, Jhoulys Chacin has gone 4-2 with a 1.98 ERA in 50 IP.

This was probably the first year that Colorado fans truly expected their team to be contenders, so it can't help but be disappointing to see them falling short in September, especially to teams with considerable flaws like San Diego and Atlanta.  However, there are many competitive season left for this incarnation of the Rox.  I expect to see them playing postseason baseball again very soon.  

CarGo Chasing Triple Crown?

I was hardly alone on a island last March in recommending Carlos Gonzalez as a breakout candidate.  His performance down the stretch and in the 2009 postseason put him on the radar of even some casual baseball fans.  I was one of the few, however, who believed Gonzalez was capable of an MVP-type campaign immediately, at the age of 24, and, as such, I was willing to pay almost any price for him in fantasy leagues.

But as much of a man-crush as I have on Carlos Gonzalez, even I couldn't have predicted the tear that he's gone on in the second half of 2010.  On July 2nd, CarGo had an 0-for-5 against Tim Lincecum and the Giants which brought his average to a season-low of .294.  The next night he began a ten-game hitting streak which was just the beginning of a 50+ game stretch of incredible and potentially historical hotness.  In the past two months Cargo has hit 18 HR and driven in 47 runs, while batting .397 with a 1222 OPS.

At the All-Star Break and well into August, baseball pundits debated whether Joey Votto and/or Albert Pujols could make runs at the first Triple Crown since 1967 (the first in the NL since 1937).  But while King Albert and Joey V. both still rank in the top five in all three Triple Crown categories, it is Gonzalez who now has the best shot at that near-impossible accomplishment.  CarGo has more or less put the batting title out of reach, as he has a seventeen point lead over Votto (.322) and a thirty point lead on Pujols (.309).  Not only does he now look like a relatively safe bet to win the NL batting title, he has moved to within four homers of Pujols NL lead (35) and within one RBI of Votto's top mark (99).  Could Carlos Gonzalez really be the next player to anoint himself in one of baseball's most elite clubs, alongside the like of Frank Robinson and Ted Williams?

Even those (like myself) who saw the brightest of futures for CarGo, did not imagine he could have 40+ HR power.  His 162-game average in the minor leagues was just 22.  So, even with some physical growth and maturity, 30-35 HR power seemed like his upside (and still is, probably, in most seasons).  Clearly, we didn't give enough consideration to the Coors Field factor, which partially explains how the nimble, speedy outfielder has more homers since the All-Star Break than anyone not named Jose Bautista.  24 of CarGo's 31 bombs have come at home, where he also maintains an insane .391 average for the season.  The Humidor may have brought the Rockies park factor down to earth a little, but the ballpark is still a hitters paradise and seems perfectly tailored to CarGo's sweet left-handed swing.  His approach resembles to some extent that of the young Larry Walker, who, during one three-year stretch in Colorado, hit .369 with a 1141 OPS and averaged 44 HR and 124 RBI per 162 games.

It certainly helps CarGo's quest that the Rockies will play 16 of their remaining 26 games in Denver.  Nonetheless, he will need to have another huge month, maybe his biggest of the year, in order to close the gap on a Pujols, who has also been searing hot of late (.352, 12 HR in last 31 games).  With 16 games left against the Dodgers, Giants, Padres, and Cardinals, he'll have some of the league's best pitchers getting in his way.

Gonzalez's entry in the MVP race and potentially the history books is yet another reason to mark your calender for the showdown between the Rockies and Cardinals on the final weekend of the season (Sept. 30-Oct. 3).  Both teams are still very much alive in a Wild Card race, so a postseason entry could be on the line, while as an added bonus we could see the squaring off of two of the three contestants for the NL MVP, as well as two of the heavy favorites for the NL Cy Young (Ubaldo Jimenez & Adam Wainwright).  That's engagement baseball.  

OOTP Predicts Ubaldo's No-Hitter

In the third part of my OOTP simulation series I'm looking at a lineup of players who piqued my curiousity going into the season.  My primary interest had to do with their fantasy profiles, so the stats I tracked were 5 X 5 roto categories.

Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux's 2010 Hot List

I wrapped up my last "real" draft of the season this afternoon, but I won't simply be twiddling my thumbs until Opening Day.  Below is a comprehensive list of players who ended up on several Hippeaux teams this March.  This doesn't necessarily mean this are my "favorite" players at any position, merely that they are players who I clearly have ranked at least a notch or two higher than most of my competitors.  If a player winds up on two of my eight teams it might be merely coincidence, but three or more seems to suggest a pattern...

Fantastic Thoughts: "American League teams don't even carry five outfielders." (Outfield Preview)

It's a fantasy baseball tradition.  The vast majority of leagues require each team to carry five active outfielders.  So, while it may appear that that this position is loaded with excellent options at the beginning of your draft, it probably won't feel that way by the time you're making your fourth and fifth selections, especially if you're playing in an AL-only or large mixed league.  It's wise to get a stud early (in the first three to five rounds).

This is also one of those positions that doesn't necessarily jibe with the ever-popular "high-risk/high-reward" strategy.  Sure, I'll advocate a good many young up-and-comers, as I would at any position, but I'm also a big fan of ho-hum veterans that can be had in the late rounds or for very little money.  Nobody gets revved up about Hideki Matsui, J. D. Drew, and Jermaine Dye anymore, but for years they have been mortal locks for 20 HR, 150 R + RBI, and an average that won't hurt you.  You'll find such numbers quite satisfactory from your fifth outfielder.

Rather than rank 100+ outfielders, I'll provide my top forty and then a few pools of players who are can fulfill certain roles.

1. Ryan Braun (Brewers)
2. Justin Upton (D-Backs)
3. Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
4. Carl Crawford (Rays)
5. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)

No matter how you rank them (I'm probably higher on Upton than most), everybody in this quintet is going to be gone by the end of the second round.  You can't go too far wrong with any of them, but the first three are especially scary, as none are older than 26.

6. Nick Markakis (Orioles)
7. Curtis Granderson (Yankees)
8. Grady Sizemore (Indians)
9. Adam Jones (Orioles)
10. Jayson Werth (Phillies)
11. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)

This may seem like a reach for some of these guys, but they are all "five-tool" players in their primes, for whom 30/30 seasons are not a terrible stretch.  The potential for that kind of across-the-board production makes them very tempting.  Choo very quietly had a breakout effort in '09, with 20 HR and 21 SB, to go along with a .300 average and 80+ runs and RBI.  With two full seasons under his belt and an improved Cleveland lineup around him, he could turn into an MVP candidate.

As a baseball fan, I hate that Curtis Granderson is a Yankee.  But as a fantasy owner, I am downright buoyant.  If Johnny Damon can hit 20+ bombs with the help of the new right-field porch in the Bronx, Granderson could have an outside shot at 40.  No matter where he hits in the New York order, Grandy is going to see better pitches and have more run-producing opportunities than he did as the leadoff hitter in Detroit.

12. Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners)
13. Manny Ramirez (Dodgers)
14. Carlos Lee (Astros)
15. Jason Bay (Mets)
16. Bobby Abreu (Angels)

None of these guys are spring chickens, but they are still fairly safe plays as your #1 or #2 outfielder.  Some people will be wary of Bay because of his move to Citi Field and some will be wary of Manny because of his unusual late-season slump.  Let them worry away.

17. Carlos Beltran (Mets)
18. B. J. Upton (Rays)
19. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)

Here is the first tier of "injury risks."  There was much ado about Beltran's offseason surgery and the the uncertainty of the timeline for his return.  Upton struggled throughout last season and had another operation this past winter.  And, of course, Hamilton has been consistently creaky throughout his career. That said, all three of these guys, when happy and healthy, could very easily jump from the top twenty into the top five.

20. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
21. Torii Hunter (Angels)
22. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
23. Hunter Pence (Astros)

A lesser version of the second tier, guys who possess high-end speed and power.  McCutchen and Gonzalez are perhaps primed to jump into the top ten, but both will have to prove that the can reproduce (or even improve upon) their second-half surges.  Gonzalez was among the best in all of baseball during the waning months of '09, as he hit .320 with a dozen homers and a 992 OPS in about 200 plate appearances after the All-Star Break, then batted .588 (!) in the NLDS.

Offseason Prospectus #17: The Colorado Rockies

In the fall of 2007, the Rockies used an eleven-game winning streak and an extraordinary extra-innings win against San Diego in game 163 to surge into the postseason and eventually to the World Series. They had five players with 90 or more RBI - Matt Holliday (137), Brad Hawpe (116), Garrett Atkins (111), Troy Tulowitzki (99), and Todd Helton (91) - and looked like a team built to win for several years to come.

Unfortunately for Colorado, like so many teams who make unexpected journeys deep into October, they had trouble duplicating that success, managing only 74 wins in '08 and beginning '09 by going 18-28, a performance bad enough to lead to the firing of long-time skipper, Clint Hurdle.

To everybody's surprise, soon after Hurdle was dismissed, the Rockies regained their swagger under Jim Tracy and '09 turned out to be the best regular season in the team's history (92 W, .568). They got manhandled by the Phillies in the NLDS, but there is once again optimism among the Coors Field faithful, as the team proved it could win without Matt Holliday.

In recent years, Colorado's front office, led by Dan O'Dowd, has made a consistent commitment to drafting, developing, and retaining their own players, and keeping themselves away from big free agents who haven't proven themselves in the distinctive environs of Colorado, like the ones that hamstrung the team earlier in the decade (Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle, most famously). Of the dozen men who got 100 or more at-bats for the Rockies in 2009, only Carlos Gonzalez and Yorvit Torrealba have ever played for another organization (in Gonzalez's case, that tenure was very brief). The starting rotation is also led by two pitchers who are career Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook.

So far this offseason, O'Dowd has stuck to his guns. The Rockies offered arbitration to set-up man, Rafael Betancourt, but have otherwise been silent. In the early months of 2010, O'Dowd may look for a part-time catcher and minor bullpen or bench reinforcements, but the Rockies remain convinced that they already have the major pieces necessary to get them back to the promise land. And, with nobody in their division getting noticeably better so far this winter, they can make a pretty convincing case for being the preseason favorite in the NL West.

Free Agents:

Garrett Atkins (30) 3B/1B [Signed w/ Orioles]

Joe Beimel (33) LHRP

Jose Contreras (38) RHRP

Adam Eaton (32) RHSP

Alan Embree (40) LHRP

Josh Fogg (33) RHRP

Jason Giambi (39) PH

Matt Herges (40) RHRP

Jason Marquis (31) RHSP [Signed w/ Nationals]

Matt Murton (28) OF

Joel Peralta (34) RHRP [Signed w/ Nationals]

Juan Rincon (31) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Clint Barmes (31) 2B

Taylor Buchholz (28) RHRP

Jorge De La Rosa (29) LHSP

Jason Hammel (27) RHSP

Chris Iannetta (27) C

Ryan Spilborghs (30) OF

Huston Street (26) RHCL

ETA 2010?:

Jhoulys Chacin (22) RHSP

Samuel Deduno (26) RHSP

Edgmer Escalona (23) RHRP

Shane Lindsay (24) RHRP

Michael McKenry (25) C

Chaz Roe (23) RHSP

Esmil Rogers (24) RHSP

Eric Young (25) 2B/CF

While I think O'Dowd is an exceptionally competent GM, I see one area in which his conservative strategy might prove dangerous. While none of the free agent arms Colorado is losing were among the best pitchers in their bullpen, Alan Embree, Josh Fogg, Joel Peralta, Juan Rincon, Jose Contreras, and Joe Beimel did combine for over 150 innings. Down the stretch Contreras was among the Rockies most dependable relievers.

Colorado does have a nice selection of quality arms coming up through the system, but they will need to depend heavily on Manny Corpas, Franklin Morales, Randy Flores, and Taylor Buchholz, all of whom struggled with either injuries or ineffectiveness in '09. I wouldn't be surprised if O'Dowd finds one more "insurance plan" among the remaining crop of free agents, perhaps an inexpensive veteran like Guillermo Mota or David Weathers, or an return engagement for Contreras or Fogg.

By not offering arbitration to Garrett Atkins, a player who was once at the center of Colorado's offensive plans, the Rockies have committed full force to Ian Stewart as their everyday third baseman. Stewart was very impressive against right-handed pitching in his first full season (20 HR, 823 OPS), but struggled mightily against southpaws (5 HR, 664 OPS). The Rockies may see this as an avenue to free up at-bats for Eric Young, who is currently without an everyday role. Or, they may still be in the market for a right-handed cornerman who can also pinch-hit, somebody like Mark Loretta or Nomar Garciaparra.

It's truly odd to say it, but going into 2010, one of Colorado's strengths is the depth of their rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez hasn't yet reached the notoriety of a Lincecum, a Greinke, or a King Felix, but he belongs among that class of pitchers, a truly dominant Ace still in his mid-twenties. Ubaldo went 15-12 in '09 with a 3.47 ERA and 198 K in 218 IP. Most importantly, he seems to have harnessed his incredibly nasty stuff, dropping his walk rate from 4.7 to 3.5 every nine innings.

Lining up behind Jimenez the Rockies have the reliable veteran, Aaron Cook, who over the last four seasons has averaged 29 starts, 11 wins, and a 4.11 ERA, and the 2009 breakout lefty, Jorge de la Rosa, who went 16-3 for Colorado from June 1st until the end of the season.

The Rockies are also anticipating the return of Jeff Francis, who was considered their ace before injuries cost him much of 2008 and all of 2009. If Francis shows anything resembling his former talent, the Rockies will possess a front four which is among the best in the National League.

The final spot will go to Jason Hammel, at least to begin the year. Hammel was very solid in '09 (10-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 177 IP), good enough to get first dibs, but he will be pressed to perform by the advancement of young guns like Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, and Chaz Roe, all of whom look ready for major-league action. O'Dowd may choose to convert one or more of them into relievers, at least temporarily, as he did with Franklin Morales.

The star of the show in Denver will always be the offense. Even as production has decreased in recent seasons, thanks to the humidifier, Coors Field still consistently ranks among the top three parks for run production. What O'Dowd has improved at over the last few years, however, is putting together lineups which are dangerous in any climate and every stadium. He's still got the hard-swinging flyball specialists like Stewart and Chris Iannetta, but they are combined with speedy slap-hitters like Dexter Fowler and Eric Young, all-fields RBI men like Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe, and, most importantly, five-tool talents like Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

Especially if Iannetta bounces back from a sub-par '09 campaign that saw him eventually lose the starting role to Torrealba, the Rockies will have a lineup that rivals the depth of those in Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Milwaukee (no lineup in the NL is as complete as Philadelphia's at the moment). And, like each of those teams, they won't be satisfied by anything less than October baseball. No reason why they should be.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Dexter Fowler (S)

LF Carlos Gonzalez (L)

1B Todd Helton (L)

SS Troy Tulowitzki (R)

RF Brad Hawpe (L)

3B Ian Stewart (L)

C Chris Iannetta (R)

2B Clint Barmes (R)

SP Ubaldo Jimenez (R)

SP Jorge de la Rosa (L)

SP Aaron Cook (R)

SP Jeff Francis (L)

SP Jason Hammel (R)

CL Huston Street (R)

SU Rafael Betancourt (R)

SU Taylor Buchholz (R)

MR Manny Corpas (R)

MR Franklin Morales (L)

LOOGY Randy Flores (L)

SWING Jhoulys Chacin (R)

C Michael McKenry (R)

IF Mark Loretta (R) FA

IF/OF Eric Young (S)

OF Seth Smith (L)

OF Ryan Spilborghs (R)