Fantastic Thoughts: "First base is deep, but not that deep." (Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings)

I've discussed the "three threes" strategy before, most recently in my 2010 BLOGZKRIEG! Auction Diary, but heres a quick refresher.

My theory is that first-baseman, besides consistently filling up the stat sheet, are less frequently injured than players who play more strenuous positions.  So, I aim to get as many 1B/DH types on my roster as possible, three at minimum: at first, corner infield, and utility.  If you have an instance, as we did in 2010, where a former third-baseman or outfielder is being moved to first (i.e. Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus, etc.), but still has eligibility at their old position, than that opens up the possibility of getting even more.

Here are the numbers, by position, of players who got at least 600 plate appearances in 2010:

C: 0
1B: 21
2B: 9
3B: 11
SS: 10
LF: 10
CF: 14
RF: 11
DH: 4

This was actually an even more pronounced distribution than I've seen in years past, but 1B is almost always the runaway leader.  Keeping your players on the field is one of the most important and least predictable aspects of playing fantasy baseball and this is one way I seek to exert a little bit of control.

This season, however, the class of first baseman is not as deep as it has been in the recent past.  There are a few reasons for this.  No fewer than ten teams are currently planning to go with young first-baseman, either rookies or sophomores.  Some of them are quite promising, but there is always risk involved with young players.  Furthermore, we have a couple of premier hitters - Justin Morneau and Kendry Morales - who are coming back from injuries and whose production, especially in the early months of the season, could be effected.  Several players who were formerly considered safe producers - Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, etc. - are coming off bad years.  It's hard to feel comfortable predicting a rebound.  And, on the other side, guys like Paul Konerko and Aubrey Huff just posted career highs.  What can we expect from them?

It's a tough crop to gauge, which is one reason why the elite first-baggers, always among the most expensive players on the board, may be even more sought-after.

1. Albert Pujols, STL
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET

Not only are they the clear leaders at the position, they are, in my mind at least, the two most valuable players in fantasy baseball.  If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably hear a lot more about the historical precedence of Miggy's seven-year stretching of averaging .317 - 100 - 34 - 117 - 4.  But, of course, Prince Albert's stretch runs to ten years at .331 - 119 - 41 - 123 - 8.  Sick.  Just sick.

3. Prince Fielder, MIL
4. Joey Votto, CIN
5. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
6. Ryan Howard, PHI

Many would scoff at putting Fielder ahead of the 2010 NL MVP, but remember we're not paying for last year's stats.  History has suggested, that short of legends like Pujols and Bonds, it's really hard to maintain MVP-type numbers from one year to the next.  I'm not saying Votto won't continue to be productive, but I expect a modest decline from a player who, to be honest, set career highs is basically everything in 2010.  Fielder is the same age as Votto, but with a much longer and more impressive overall track record and, coming off a slightly down season (.261-94-32-83-1), in a contract year, and playing for a serious contender, he's got everything to prove.

7. Mark Teixeira, NYY
8. Justin Morneau, MIN
10. Kendry Morales, LAA
11. Adam Dunn, CWS

Note that, absent from this group is Kevin Youkilis.  If he were here, I would probably rank him ahead of Teixeira, but as he will be spending most of the season at the hot corner, following the Adrian Gonzalez trade, that's where I'm going to rank him.  Again, it has to do with wanting to focus on the guys that have the luxury of playing baseball's least taxing position.  This is a class of players who are all clearly superb hitters and could very well end up out-producing several players in the tier above them, but all give us reason for pause.  Morales is coming off a broken leg that cost him almost all of 2010.  Morneau looked like he was heading for his second MVP award, but concussions cut he season short at the halfway point.  Teixeira dealt with minor injuries and still produced at a high level, except in terms of batting average, which fell to a career low (.256, is probably just a fluke, based on his .268 BABIP).  Batting average is also the concern for Dunn, who actually was above his career norms in his two years in Washington.  The move to Chicago could be good for his power totals, but changing leagues might cause him to backtrack in terms of average and strikeouts.  Again, it's possible any one of these guys could give you a top-five caliber performance, but there's some minor uncertainties.

12. Billy Butler, KC
13. Paul Konerko, CWS
14. Aubrey Huff, SFG
15. Adam Lind, TOR

This is where the first substantial dropoff happens.  All of these guys have certainly proved themselves capable of putting up big numbers, but their ability to do it consistently in the question.  After mediocre showings in '08 and '09 it looked like Konerko was entering his decline.  Then, just before his contract expired, he posted the best season of his career, at age 34.  Though a year younger, Huff's situation is similar.  2010 was, in many respects, his best showing since 2003 (although he also had a very respectable year in 2008).  Lind was an MVP candidate in '09, but fell apart last year.  In 2011 he'll be 27-years-old and playing a new position.  Could it spark a comeback?  With all these players, the issue is not whether you want them so much as what you have to pay for them.  In the early middle rounds of your draft or for around $20-$25, they're reasonable investment, but don't reach.  On the other hands, if one of them slips or can be had for under $20, get after him.

16. Matt LaPorta, CLE
17. Kila Ka'aihue, KCR
18. Justin Smoak, SEA
19. Daric Barton, OAK
20. James Loney, LAD

These players are defined by what I'd call "unrealized potential."  Matt LaPorta was the cornerstone in the C. C. Sabathia trade a few years back.  At the time he was presumed a future All-Star, but his performance thusfar has been frankly pathetic (596 OPS in 162 games).  He's still young.  Ka'aihue has hit at every minor-league level, but for some reason the Royals were reluctant to promote him.  Now, at age 27, he'll finally get a shot to prove himself, but the Eric Hosmer era is just on the horizon, so there's little room for error.  A year ago, everybody thought Smoak was "a sure thing," then he hit .218 in half a season with Texas and Seattle.  Still, he's a tailor-made post-hype sleeper.  Barton finally got a firm hold on the A's first base job last year, as many had long been expecting, but he still hasn't shown much power, and much of his "real" value comes from his OBP and his defense, neither of which shows up on most fantasy stat sheets.  Many predicted Loney to be a future batting champion after he hit .321 with a 915 OPS in his first two seasons (446 AB).  In the past three he's hit .279 with a 751 OPS (1759 AB) and patience is wearing thin in L.A.

As you can tell, this is why I have some skepticism about the depth of this year's first-base class.  There's plenty of talent in this tier and those that follow, but it is very, very unproven.

21. Brandon Allen, ARZ
22. Gaby Sanchez, FLA
23. Freddie Freeman, ATL
24. Ike Davis, NYM

Some will go a little gaga over Sanchez and Davis because they were considered Rookie of the Year candidates in 2010.  But, let's be honest, as far as fantasy first baseman go, their numbers sucked.

Sanchez: .273 AVG, 72 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB
Davis: .264 AVG, 73 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 3 SB

Base on their minor-league records, I'm not convinced either is going to rapidly improve.  If you're paying only a dollar or two, as you probably were last year, that's fine.  But for the $15+ you might need to pay this season, I'd rather wait and take a cheap flyer on one of this year's rookies.  Allen and Freeman are probably the best of the 2011 class.

26. Derrek Lee, BAL
27. Carlos Pena, CHC
28. Adam LaRoche, WAS
29. Lyle Overbay, TOR
30. Todd Helton, COL

Boring, boring, and more boring.  That said, each of these guys will end up outperforming several of the young players I've listed ahead of them.  They're basically 75 R, 20 HR, and 75 RBI in the bank (presuming health), but with potentially low averages.  That ain't great for a starting first-baseman, but then again, only 11 players did substantially better in 2010.  In a year light on "sure things," it might not be a bad idea to go boring with one of your low-end selections.

29. Mitch Moreland, TEX
30. Brett Wallace, HOU
31. Leslie Anderson, TBR
32. Brandon Belt, SFG
33. Chris Carter, OAK
34. Chris Davis, TEX
35. Yonder Alonso, CIN

The young player grab bag.  You know the deal.  Lots of upside.  No certainty.  No guaranteed playing time.  Moreland and Wallace get the upper hand only because they appear destined make Opening Day lineups.  Will they survive April?  That's harder to tell.

Fantastic Thoughts: "Albert Pujols is good. No, really." (First Base Preview)

First base has always been the deepest position in fantasy baseball, but this year's class is exceptional, with a dozen or more players who will go in the first five rounds, even in relatively shallow leagues.  That number gets even bigger if you include guys like Pablo Sandoval and Mark Reynolds, who are also eligible at first in most leagues, but who I don't include here because their primary position is third base (which is much, much shallower). 


There are conflicting views on how this excess of riches should effect your draft strategy.  Some believe that the prevalence of big bats at the position means you should load up on other positions in the early rounds and grab a guy like Paul Konerko or James Loney who might fall deep into the draft or be available for very little money in an auction.  Others would contend that with this many studs, it's even more imperative that you get one or even two of them on your roster.  


Although I think both strategies have validity, I tend more towards the latter, because I think it leaves you will slightly more room for error.  If you pass on a Prince Fielder, a Mark Texeira, or an Adrian Gonzalez, you had better be damn sure that the player you pick in his place is going to put up premium stats, regardless of what position he plays.  First baseman are productive, not only because the position tends to attract burly sluggers, but also because it tends to be slightly less toilsome than most of the other positions on the diamond.  23 first baseman, including every one of my top eighteen, played 130 or more games in 2009.  Compare that to 16 shortstops, 18 third baseman, and 10 catchers, and you get an idea why it's not a bad idea to grab a first-bagger early on.    


1. Albert Pujols (Cardinals)

Much as was the case with Bonds early last decade, for the last several years fantasy pundits have been trying to find a reason why Prince Albert shouldn't be the first player off the board.  After making a serious run at the Triple Crown in 2009, I think he's finally proven the such a reason doesn't exist.  It's hard to predict a duplication of his ridiculous '09 numbers (.327 AVG, 124 R, 47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB, 1101 OPS).  But, at the same time, Pujols is still in the midst of his prime, has never had an "off" year, and, with the signing of Matt Holliday, finally has some lineup protection, so (hazard this thought if you root for another NL Central franchise) there may actually be room for improvement (gulp).

2. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
3. Prince Fielder (Brewers)
4. Ryan Howard (Phillies)
5. Mark Texeira (Yankees)
6. Justin Morneau (Twins)
7. Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
8. Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)

These are the lions.  In each of the mock drafts I've looked at thusfar, although the order might be altered slightly, all of these guys are off the board by the middle of the third round, sometimes earlier.  When choosing your stud, you should think carefully about your leagues rules.  In a standard 5X5 roto league you might bump Howard up a slot because of his propensity for massive HR and RBI totals.  If you league counts OBP or OPS, you might prefer Youkilis over a couple of the guys I've listed in front of him.  If you get negative points for strikeouts, that'll work against Howard and benefit Morneau and A-Gonz.

My favorite from this group is definitely Prince Fielder.  It's primarily because I just love watching him play, which is nothing more than an aesthetic justification, but I'll also point out that at 25, he's the youngest of the group and there is reason to believe that he may still be maturing (same goes for Cabrera, who is 26).  In '09 he dramatically improved his walk rate and the improved discipline not only translated into a better OBP, but also more hits and a higher average.

If there is a weak link, I think it's Mark Texeira.  Tex's hype legitimately corresponds to his contract and the fact that he helped bring a championship to New York in his first year with the club, but those who are predicting even bigger things in 2010 need to temper their expectations.  In some leagues he's getting drafted ahead of Cabrera, Fielder, and Howard.  As good as he is, his numbers don't quite stack up to that company.

Offseason Prospectus #16: The Cleveland Indians

The Indians are one of the most enjoyable franchises to follow and one of the most challenging to evaluate. Mark Shapiro is among the more creative and unpredictable GMs in baseball and the teams he puts together often possess the same characteristics, which isn't always a good thing. During the Noughties, Cleveland won 90+ games four times, and lost 90+ twice. They spent over $90 Million (in 2001) and under $35 Million (in 2004), and pretty much everything between. Players like Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner experienced both ends of the performance spectrum, as candidates (and even winners) of MVPs and Cy Youngs, but also falling dramatically short of expectations in intervening years.

As recently as 2007 the Indians made it as far as Game 7 of the ALCS. They looked like a franchise poised to compete for years to come. However, their winning percentage dropped by nearly 100 points in each of the next two seasons and now, having dealt C. C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Casey Blake, Franklin Gutierrez, Mark DeRosa, Carl Pavano, Rafael Betancourt, Kelly Shoppach, Ryan Garko, and Ben Francisco in the span of fourteen months, they appear to be franchise firmly in a rebuilding mode. Only ten players from the 2007 ALCS roster remain in the Cleveland organization.

This isn't unfamiliar territory. In 2005, when they had one of the lowest payrolls in all of baseball, the Indians surprised everybody by winning 93 games and making a serious run on the AL Wild Card, going 38-16 (.704) in the seasons final two months. The next year, with a team of much the same composition, seemingly poised for contention, they again fell beneath .500. When it comes to Shapiro's Indians, looks can be deceiving.

Free Agents:

Jamey Carroll (36) IF [Signed w/ Dodgers]

Masa Kobayashi (36) RHRP [Signed w/ Yomiuri Giants]

Tomo Ohka (34) RHP

Jose Veras (29) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Rafael Perez (28) LHRP

ETA 2010?:

Michael Brantley (23) OF

Jordan Brown (26) OF

Carlos Carrasco (23) RHSP

Jeanmar Gomez (22) RHSP

Matt LaPorta (25) 1B/OF

Lou Marson (24) C

Vinnie Pestano (25) RHRP

Johan Pino (26) RHSP

Carlos Santana (24) C

Jess Todd (24) RHRP

Nick Weglarz (22) LF

The Indians organization has been for the last two decades one of the best in baseball at drafting and developing talent. Although financial restraints prevent them from retaining all of that talent, they firmly believe in replenishing the system via trades. Their success this season will be based mainly upon the production of those players who were acquired when Cleveland traded the veterans listed above.

Matt LaPorta was the centerpiece of the Sabathia deal with Milwaukee in 2008. The Indians weren't sure going into the year whether LaPorta was a left-fielder or a first-baseman. During his first promotion, playing primarily left field, LaPorta struggled, managing only a 571 OPS over the course of an eleven-game stretch in May. The Indians sent him back to AAA, and when he returned, he posted an admirable 805 OPS through forty games in August and September. After trading Ryan Garko and Michael Aubrey, it appears that Cleveland will enter 2010 withe LaPorta as their everyday first-baseman. LaPorta's minor-league stats (941 OPS, for instance) suggest he has the power to hold down that position. If he can provide protection for Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner, Cleveland could produce runs in bunches. It is a balanced attack, with

power and speed from both sides of the plate, as well as solid defense up the middle.

The Indians rotation, on the other hand, is filled with once-promising prospects for whom this is probably the last chance. Fausto Carmona epitomizes the group. After being among the best pitchers in all of baseball in 2007, winning 19 games and posting a 3.06 ERA, Carmona has taken huge steps backward in each of the past two seasons. In 2009 he went 5-12 with an abyssmal 6.32 ERA. However, Carmona is still only 26 years old, perfectly capable of becoming a quality starter, if not the Ace he looked like a couple years ago.

Similarly, Anthony Reyes was once considered among the top pitching prospects. He threw eight strong innings in the first game of the 2006 World Series, at the age of 24. However, it has been mostly downhill from there. He went just 2-14 for the Cardinals in '07. He was traded to the Tribe midway through '08 and looked great down the stretch, posting a 1.80 ERA in his first six starts with his new team. But in '09 he was plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness. At the age of 28, he doesn't have many chances left.

The same can be said of Jeremy Sowers, the promising Vanderbilt Ace who's now made 71 major-league starts, but won only 17 of them. Aaron Laffey, another left-hander who breezed through the minor leagues, has also struggled to perform at the major-league level, posting a 4.42 ERA in 44 starts.

All of these pitchers are young enough that Cleveland is willing to give them at least another year of opportunities, but if Shapiro doesn't see significant maturation, 2011 may mark the end of his patience. The Indians next crop of hurlers is coming up the pipeline, buoyed by the additions of Justin Masterson, Carlos Carrasco, and Johan Pino via Shapiro's flurry of trades last summer. Nobody in the Opening Day rotation will have a particularly long leash.

The Indians have a lot to work out going into Spring Training. Not only is the rotation pretty much a free-for-all, the Tribe will be looking at multiple candidates for left field, second base, catcher, and in the bullpen, where Kerry Wood, Tony Sipp, and Joe Smith are probably the only pitchers who have locked up spots in advance.

The battle for backstop is particularly interesting as it features two 24-year-olds who are both among the top prospects at their position. Lou Marson, who came to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal, got a couple cups of coffee in 2009 and posted a 708 OPS between Cleveland and Philadelphia. Marson doesn't possess much power, but he is a quality defender who gets on base at a very high rate (.433 OBP at AA in '08, .382 at AAA prior to the trade in '09). Carlos Santana hasn't advanced past AA yet, but he is one of the top hitting prospects around. In 132 AA games, he's hit 24 HR, driven in 99 runs, and posted a 939 OPS. If he can prove himself defensively, he is probably the Indians catcher of the future. If not, he is probably their DH of the future.

There are currently only three men on the Indians 40-man roster over the age of thirty: Kerry Wood, Jake Westbrook, and Travis Hafner. Each of them possesses an ungainly contract, so they probably won't be featured on next season's trading block unless they have an unexpected renaissance. Rather, they will be asked, along with Cleveland's new manager, Manny Acta, to guide a clubhouse full of exciting young talents. Although it is probably a truly long shot for Cleveland to surge to the front of their division (which is, to be fair, a division without an obvious powerhouse), by August of 2010, I expect none of the contenders will be looking forward to playing meaningful games against the Indians and in 2011 they may be favorites in the AL Central. Which, based on the contrarian perspective outlined above, may not be a position of strength.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Grady Sizemore (L)

SS Asdrubel Cabrera (S)

RF Shin-Soo Choo (L)

DH Travis Hafner (L)

1B Matt LaPorta (R)

3B Jhonny Peralta (R)

C Carlos Santana (S)

LF Michael Brantley (L)

2B Luis Valbuena (L)

SP Jake Westbrook (R)

SP Fausto Carmona (R)

SP Aaron Laffey (L)

SP Anthony Reyes (R)

SP Jeremy Sowers (L)

CL Kerry Wood (R)

SU Joe Smith (R)

SU Tony Sipp (L)

MR Jensen Lewis (R)

MR Chris Perez (R)

LOOGY Rafael Perez (L)

SWING Justin Masterson (R)

C Lou Marson (R)

1B/3B Andy Marte (R)

2B/SS Jason Donald (R)

OF Trevor Crowe (S)