An Idealistic All-Star Ballot (AL)

It's that time of year, when one could responsibly consider being an informed participant in the All-Star Voting.  Last year, we fans elected Josh Hamilton to start.  At the time, he was hitting .226 with 6 HR and had spent much of the previous three months on the D.L.  This is merely the most recent of many ridiculous selections.  From the much-publicized perspective that the All-Star game now "counts," because it determines home-field advantage for the World Series, the fact the game is still treated as an exhibition in terms of voting seems counter-intuitive.  One could, I suppose, rationalize voting for the worst players on  the AL ballot, if you favored team is from the NL.

We'll set the incongruities of the process aside for now, as I offer what I deem the most deserving candidates at each position, starting in the American League:

Ruben Amaro Digs the Long Ball

Preliminary reports indicate that Ryan Howard has signed a five-year $125 Million contract extension with the Phillies, making it quite likely he'll finish his career in Philadelphia.  By the time the contract runs out in 2016, Howard will be 37-years-old.

Ryan Howard hit 220 HR in his first five seasons of his career.  Nobody else has done that.  Ryan Howard has led the majors in RBI for three of the last four seasons, something which hadn't been done since Cecil Fielder did it in the early '90s.  He won the MVP Award in '06 and has finished in the top five in MVP voting every year since.  So, why is Rob Neyer calling this contract a "big bowl of wrong"?!?

First off, let's look at this from the Phillies perspective.  Howard is teddy bear.  A big, smiling, happy-go-lucky slugger who hawks cheesesteaks on national television and has his own outreach program for underprivileged kids.  Although he may not be as talented as Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, or Barry Bonds, he has a squeaky-clean reputation, the only untainted player to have a 55+ HR season in the drug-testing era.  He fills up the stat sheet and in recent years he has dedicated himself to conditioning, thus improving his defense and his speed (he stole eight bases in '09!), and potentially prolonging his career.

What Neyer sees, however, is that even after all those improvements, Howard was 25th in the league in WAR in 2009 (4.9), tied with Dustin Pedroia, Ichiro Suzuki, and Nyjer Morgan.  He was eighth amongst first-baseman, trailing Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, and Derrek Lee.  His extraordinary HR and RBI totals are inflated by the Phillies homer-happy ballpark and the exceptional talent assembled around him, and balanced by his massive strikeout totals and declining walk rate.

Howard entered the league relatively late, at the age of 25.  He's significantly older than Fielder, Cabrera, and Gonzalez.  And, although he hasn't been in the majors nearly as long, he's actually slightly older than Pujols and Teixeira.

Despite his improved conditioning, there is always concern about how the aging process will effect a slugger with Howard's body type.  Big Papi is only the most recent reminder of the danger of severe and relatively early decline in, pardon the vernacular, "pudgy" players.  According to Baseball-Reference, the five most similar players to Howard up to age 30 (his current age), are Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Willie McCovey, and David Ortiz.  Let's take those one at a time...

Sexson reached the bigs earlier, at the age of 23, and averaged 36 HR and 112 RBI per season with Cleveland and Milwaukee from '99 to '03.  He signed his megadeal (4 yrs./$50 Mil.) with Seattle at the age of 30 and posted two solid seasons (36 HR, 114 RBI, 875 OPS) before suffering a precipitous decline.  He managed only a 698 OPS and 33 HR in his final two seasons and was out of the game at the age of 33.

Prince's estranged father, Cecil, who was far more husky than either his son or Ryan Howard, was the only player to hit 50 HR in a season between 1977 and 1995.  Big Daddy's biggest seasons came in his late 20s, when he led the league in RBI for three consecutive seasons.  From '90-'93 he averaged 40 HR and 126 RBI, with an 861 OPS, in a loaded lineup that had him hitting behind Tony Phillips, Lou Whitaker, and Alan Trammell, and in front of Kirk Gibson, Mickey Tettleton, and Rob Deer.  Fielder signed his megadeal (3 yrs./$30 Mil.) at the age of 31.  His OPS remained more or less steady for three seasons, though he struggled with injuries and hitting in a less productive lineup.  His last good season (39 HR, 117 RBI, 834 OPS) came in '96, at the age of 32.  He lasted only two more years, never again hitting more than 17 HR, and was out of baseball at the age of 34.

Mo "Hit Dog" Vaughn, like Howard, had his first big season at the age of 25.  With Boston from '93-'97 he averaged 36 HR, 110 RBI, and an outstanding 974 OPS.  He won the MVP in 1995.  He signed a six-year, $78 Million contract with Anaheim at the age of 31 and gave them two solid, but slightly down seasons (865 OPS) before injuries and a notoriously bad trade with the Mets completely derailed his career.  He played only 165 games in the final four years of his contract and was gone from baseball at the age of 35.

Big Papi also blossomed late.  He was 27-years-old in his first season with the Red Sox.  In five seasons from '03-'07 he averaged 42 HR and 128 RBI per year, with a 1014 OPS, finishing in the top five in MVP voting every time.  Prior to the '07 season, at the age of 31, he signed a four-year, $52 Million deal.  He injured his wrist midway through '08 and hasn't been quite the same since (although there's still hope!).  He's currently 34-years-old.

Clearly, there's a trend.  Four MVP-caliber first-basemen.  Four contracts signed at age 30 or 31.  Four teams dissatisfied, sometimes disastrously so, within a couple of years.  We should keep in mind that there are some other factors to throw into the equation.  Cecil Fielder was a notorious boozer, who now readily admits he made questionable "lifestyle" choices, even during his athletic career.  Vaughn, Sexson, and Ortiz have been labeled with the scarlet "S," whether fairly or not.  While there would seem to be a trend when all their injuries are thrown together, each seemed somewhat flukish on its own.  

Which leaves Willie McCovey.

Stretch, of course, was playing major-league baseball at the age of 21, but his first dominant season came at age 25, when he led the league in homers with 44.  Free Agency was never issue for McCovey and the Giants, because he was, as Curt Flood so eloquently put it, "a well-paid slave," but his prime seasons stretched from '63 to '70, during which he averaged 36 HR, 99 RBI, and a 953 OPS.  Keep in mind, this was during a pitching era, so those numbers should be treated reverentially; his OPS+ for that span was 166.  He had injury-shortened seasons in '71 and '72 (he was 33 when he first hit the D.L.) and while wasn't quite the same thereafter, he was still very good.  From '73 to '77 he averaged 22 HR, 66 RBI, and a solid 856 OPS (138 OPS+).  Unfortunately, the legendary McCovey attempted to keep playing into his forties, though he was only a glimmer of his former self (see Jr., Griffey).

I think it's safe to say Philadelphia would be satisfied if Ryan Howard's career arch followed that of the Hall of Famer.  His work ethic and dedication will certainly be contributing factors, as will his ability to avoid major injury.  I will be rooting for him.

.....

As a little postscript, I think it's necessary to point out that for the second time in his career, Ryan Howard (and his agent, Casey Close) has altered baseball's financial terrain.  A few years back his record-breaking arbitration award ($10 Million) contributed heavily to teams locking up marquee younsters like Evan Longoria, Justin Upton, and Ryan Braun to long-term deals before they even reached arbitration eligibility.  Now, his $25 Million annual salary will probably be the baseline for Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez, all of whom will hit the market after the 2011 season and all of whom can easily argue that they are worth at least as much as Howard.  I would say that in the wake of this contract and, to a lesser extent, the Teixeira signing of a year ago, Miguel Cabrera's eight-year, $152 Million deal, which runs through 2015, looks like a steal.

Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux's 2010 Hot List

I wrapped up my last "real" draft of the season this afternoon, but I won't simply be twiddling my thumbs until Opening Day.  Below is a comprehensive list of players who ended up on several Hippeaux teams this March.  This doesn't necessarily mean this are my "favorite" players at any position, merely that they are players who I clearly have ranked at least a notch or two higher than most of my competitors.  If a player winds up on two of my eight teams it might be merely coincidence, but three or more seems to suggest a pattern...

Offseason Prospectus #11: The Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have been, as usual, one of the most active franchises of the offseason. Less than 24 hours after the official end of the season, Theo Epstein pulled off a somewhat surprising trade with the Florida Marlins that landed the Sox former "blue chip" prospect, Jeremy Hermida. Hermida has been a disappointment the past couple seasons (734 OPS), but is still only 26, perfectly capable of developing into a competent everyday player, though perhaps not the superstar scouts once imagined.

The same could be said of Boof Bonser, who Boston acquired last week for a player to be named later. Bonser missed the entirety of 2009 with a shoulder injury, but should be ready in time for 2010. Another former first-round pick, Boof never lived up to expectations in Minnesota, but he is only 28. Boston may see him as insurance for the rotation or as a potential reliever.

The Red Sox first free agent signing was Marco Scutaro, who inked a three-year deal (w/option) worth $14-17 Million. The framework of the deal suggests the Red Sox realize that by the end of his contract the 34-year-old infielder may be nothing more than a well-paid utilityman. Epstein hopes that Scutaro can equal what he did as Toronto's shortstop last season for at least one more year, while the front office monitors the health of Jed Lowrie and the maturation of Jose Iglesias.

Following Scutaro was a much more high profile prize, John Lackey, the best starting pitcher in the 2010 free agent class. Some, including myself, question whether Lackey is a true Ace, capable of leading the rotation of a contender, but in Boston he won't need to be. He will slot in behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, and alongside Daisuke Matsuzaka, giving Boston quite possibly the most intimidating front four in the American League. The addition of Lackey will take a little pressure off of a rehabilitating Dice-K and the youths who will likely compete for the final spot: Clay Buchholz (the front-runner after his fine conclusion to 2009), Bonser, and Michael Bowden.

On the same day the news of Lackey's signing broke, it was announced that the Red Sox were close to a deal with Mike Cameron, the veteran Gold Glove centerfielder. If his contract gets finalized, Cameron will become the Red Sox only right-handed outfielder. He should make an excellent, versatile platoon man. In all likelihood, he will even get a fair number of at-bats against righties, as he fills in during J. D. Drew's inevitable injuries and the equally inevitable cold streaks from the young and inconsistent tandem of Hermida and Jacoby Ellsbury. Cameron has been known throughout his career as a wonderful, charitable citizen and popular clubhouse presence, as well as a fine player, so he offers more than just production to a team that seemed to struggle with chemistry at time in 2009.

Finally, on the last day of the winter meetings Boston shocked the baseball world by announcing the trade of Mike Lowell (and $9 Million) to the Rangers for Max Ramirez, a prospect who is currently considered a catcher, but whose future with the Red Sox is likely as a first baseman or designated hitter. Lowell was one of the Red Sox most popular players and a clubhouse leader, but his value has been depressed by a hip surgery which limited him severely in 2009. Nonetheless, if the deal goes through (the deal has been delayed by Lowell's medical reports) Red Sox fans very well may regret it, especially this season, as they'll be paying three quarters of Lowell's salary so he can play for another team. This deal is probably more about coveting Max Ramirez than giving up on Lowell. Ramirez is only 25-years-old and has played only seventeen major league games, but has already been traded straight up for Bob Wickman (2006), Kenny Lofton (2007), and now Lowell. That's because, although Ramirez probably won't do much catching after 2010, he can rake. He is the kind of hitter who, if given an opportunity, could be very, very productive from the moment he enters the league (think Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Howard, etc.). The Ramirez trade and, indeed, all the work Theo Epstein has done so far this winter, anticipate major questions which the Red Sox will have to answer by this time next year.

Free Agents:

Rocco Baldelli (28) OF
Jason Bay (31) LF
Alex Gonzalez (33) SS [Signed with Toronto Blue Jays]
Billy Wagner (38) LHRP [Signed with Atlanta Braves]

Arbitration Eligible:

Brian Anderson (28) OF
Boof Bonser (28) RHSP
Manny Delcarmen (28) RHRP
Jeremy Hermida (26) OF
Casey Kotchman (27) 1B
Hideki Okajima (34) LHRP
Jonathan Papelbon (29) RHRP
Ramon Ramirez (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Michael Bowden (23) RHSP
Max Ramirez (24) C/DH
Josh Reddick (23) OF
Junichi Tazawa (24) RHSP

What's the price of nostalgia?

Currently, only three players from the 2004 World Series roster are still wearing Red Sox uniforms: David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, and Tim Wakefield. Next winter Papi and 'Tek will be free agents (Wakefield has two years left on his contract), as will Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez. There are a number of sentimental reasons to resign all four players, but Theo has proven himself to be largely immune to sentimentality; the Lowell trade being only the most recent example. This is a man who unceremoniously traded Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez, and who allowed wildly popular players like Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, and Pedro Martinez to walk because he didn't think they would be fiscally responsible signings. It is hard to find a fault with his track record. It is probably a foregone conclusion that Varitek will retire at the end of the season, but the other three are much more difficult to evaluate. Much is riding on there performances in 2010.

Was last spring a fluke or the shape of things to come?

In the first two months of 2009, David Ortiz hit .185 with one lonely home run. The Slump got so bad that even Red Sox fanatics like Bill Simmons were declaring Big Papi "done." However, from June 1st to the end of the season, Ortiz hit 27 HR, had 81 RBI, and posted an OPS of 904. Over the same four month period MVP candidates like Mark Texeira (23 HR, 78 RBI, 931 OPS), Miguel Cabrera (24 HR, 66 RBI, 921 OPS), and Kendry Morales (26 HR, 78 RBI, 964 OPS) posted very similar numbers. (I hate to say I told you so, but, well, I did.) If Big Papi produces at the latter rate in 2010, he will probably get the opportunity to sign a contract that assures he ends his career in a Red Sox uniform. However, if he again shows signs of premature decline, even over the short term, he will probably be next winter's version of Vladimir Guerrero, a legendary slugger who's currently being treated like a third-tier free agent.

Who is the face of the franchise for the "20-teens"?

With Manny gone, Varitek's departure imminent, and Papi in moderate decline, the Red Sox suffered from an obvious leadership vacuum in 2009, especially prior to the arrival of Victor Martinez. The competitive intensity of Kevin Youkilis often rubbed teammates the wrong way. Jonathan Papelbon and Josh Beckett appear too often as arrogant, self-involved, or, in Paps case, just a little dumb. Dustin Pedroia, the 2008 AL MVP, is the obvious answer, as his reputation for fierceness on the field is equaled by his good-humored disposition off of it. However, like Ortiz, Pedroia's influence seemed to fade as his stats came back to earth a little in 2009. The Red Sox really gelled upon the arrival of V-Mart, who possessed a similarly strong cohesive presence in Cleveland. If this trend continues, Boston's front office will be even more inclined to resign him next winter, though probably as a first-baseman, not a catcher.

Can Tito juggle all these All-Stars?

In the latter part of 2009, Terry Francona was faced with the daunting task of rotating Martinez, Varitek, Youkilis, Lowell, and Ortiz in a wild C/1B/3B/DH platoon. 2010 won't be any easier.

C: Ramirez, Martinez, Varitek

1B: Youkilis, Martinez, Kotchman

2B: Pedroia, Scutaro, Lowrie

3B: Youkilis, Scutaro, Lowrie

SS: Scutaro, Lowrie

OF: Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron, Hermida

DH: Ortiz, Ramirez, Martinez

Francona has the luxury of depth at almost every position, which gives him defense against the injuries which often hamper veteran clubs. But it will be a challenge of finding ample opportunities for thirteen position players who are all accustomed to playing everyday. There is also the question of 22-year-old Lars Anderson, the Red Sox top hitting prospect. If he doesn't get traded, he could be ready to enter the 1B/DH mix as early as midseason. At some point, having too many big talents and big egos fighting over the same positions could become a source of distraction and dissent in the Red Sox clubhouse. Or, if everything gels, it could make them a powerhouse offense equal to or surpassing the Yankees.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/24):

LF Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
2B Dustin Pedroia (R)
C Victor Martinez (S)
1B Kevin Youkilis (R)
DH David Ortiz (L)

RF J. D. Drew (L)
3B Adrian Beltre (R)
CF Mike Cameron (R)
SS Marco Scutaro (R)

SP Jon Lester (L)
SP Josh Beckett (R)
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
SP John Lackey (R)
SP Clay Buchholz (R)

CL Jonathan Papelbon (R)
SU Daniel Bard (R)
SU Hideki Okajima (L)
MR Ramon Ramirez (R)
MR Manny Delcarmen (R)
LOOGY Dustin Richardson (L)
SWING Tim Wakefield (R)

C Jason Varitek (S)
1B/3B Mike Lowell (R)
IF Jed Lowrie (S)
OF Jeremy Hermida (L)

"He's done-er than done." - Matthew Berry

I'll admit it, I'm unfairly picking on Matthew Berry because he's somebody I read and listen to consistently. So, clearly, I often agree with or benefit from his analysis. But in this instance he joins a whole chorus of journalists who have been so eager to declare Big Papi's six week slump evidence of a steep, inevitable decline, impossible for him to bounce back from. This declaration troubles and offends me, frankly.

Also, let me be clear, a 2-for-5 night with a homer doesn't necessarily mean that the slump is ended. Ortiz fans will need a couple more of these before they can show genuine relief. But it's a start.

What bothers me most about Ortiz's situation is the so-called "scarlet letter" of steroids, discussed here by Bill Reynolds, which is now being affixed to a player for whom there isn't really even circumstantial evidence. People will say that I'm in denial about the prevalence of performance-enhancing drugs in baseball. That's not true. I'm willing to concede their ubiquity. Which is part of why (and this is what really bothers people) I really don't care. I don't believe that steroids/PEDs are especially dangerous when taken by grown men of their own accord (for starters, check out the documentary "Bigger, Stronger, Faster"). I don't think baseball should be held to a different standard than say the NFL or any other forum for professional athletics. I don't think that any substance diminishes or explains the exceptional talents of a Barry Bonds or a Manny Ramirez. I don't think baseball history is in any way tarnished, that is, any more tarnished, than it's been from any number of ball-playing assholes from Cap Anson to John Rocker. This is just another (very entertaining) episode in the sport's history, which, like American history, is filled with glorious imperfections.

But, back to Ortiz.

What bothers me about the treatment of Big Papi is that it is the most publicized instance of the trend towards explaining any drastic drop in production by insinuations about steroids. This is deeply ironic (or tragic, if you're a player) because now you can be presumed guilty if either a.) you are too productive in your mid to late thirties or b.) you are suddenly unproductive in your mid to late thirties. Basically, if you don't follow the loosely-defined "normal" career path, than you are fair game for "juicing" speculation.

Another issue here is Ortiz's physique. It used to be that steroid speculation was fueled by extraordinary physical changes. Either an eruption of muscles on a formerly slim(mer) player (Brady Anderson, Sammy Sosa, McGwire, etc.) or a sudden atrophy in the wake of more stringent testing (Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, etc.). As somebody who has experienced his share of drug-unrelated weight fluctuations, I have real problems with this hypothesis. Regardless, in Ortiz's case, no transformation is evident. In fact, he has exactly the build (insert favorite euphemism here) which we would expect for both a.) the kind of player who accumulates sizable home-run totals in the prime of their career (i.e. Cecil Fielder, Danny Tartabull, Dmitri Young, Matt Stairs, etc.) then drops off drastically as their immensity catches up with them (i.e. Cecil Fielder, Danny Tartabull, Dmitri Young, Matt Stairs, etc.).

Meanwhile, it has somehow become "naive" to blame some of Ortiz's struggles on his wrist injury. We should note, however, that the torn tendon sheath which sidelined Ortiz relatively briefly in 2008 has ended seasons for players like Nick Johnson, Billy Wagner, and, most recently, Rickie Weeks. Wrist injuries are notoriously difficult to recover from. Derrek Lee, for instance, has yet to display the power he showed prior to his disastrous injury in 2006. A wrist injury in 2003 limited Adrian Gonzalez to only 5 HR (in the minor leagues) that season and only 12 at AAA in 2004. Those are hardly the kind of power numbers you would expect for a player of his caliber at that level, which may be why he was traded twice (from the Marlins to the Rangers to the Padres) before he became the consistent 30+ HR threat he is today.

Might Ortiz have reached, at age 33, a point in his career where age and unfortunate injuries make him better suited to hit fifth or sixth, rather than third or fourth? Possibly. May he be prone to more slumps and perhaps even need to be benched against tough left-handers? Possibly. But then, the same can be said of Jim Thome and Ken Griffey Jr. Is there also the possibility that he might, like Carlos Delgado or Jason Giambi, make the purveyors of his "doneness" eat their words by stringing together several more prime (or, at least, semi-prime) seasons? Quite possibly.

The Delgado Factor

I've already written about the inevitability of Big Papi's resurgence, but I'd like to offer a recent analogy. Last season, coming off a serious injury, Carlos Delgado was declared "done" at 36. Scouts said his bat speed was gone, that he couldn't pull the ball, and New York sportswriters drilled Willie Randolph for keeping him in the middle of the lineup. On May 6 he was batting .216 with a 670 OPS and only 4 HR (Ortiz is currently at .222, 653, and, famously, 0). From that point on, Delgado hit .284 with a 919 OPS, 34 HR, and 99 RBI, finishing 9th in the NL MVP voting. No doubt he would have finished higher if the Mets hadn't collapsed and missed the playoffs. Don't allow a prolonged slump after an injury convince you, as it has many of the pundits of Baseball Tonight, that Ortiz's skills are in dramatic decline. In his last 16 games he is already showing signs of life, with a modest 782 OPS, 9 extra-base hits, and a nine-game hitting streak. Last night against the Yankees he hit a pair of doubles and walked twice. Ortiz may never again be a 40-50 HR guys, as he was in his late twenties, but he can still be an RBI machine, peppering balls off the Green Monster and hitting in the center of a potent lineup.

April showers...

Over the last couple of days in various leagues I have acquired Brandon Phillips, Chris B. Young, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.  One may assume this suggests I've been very actively seeking trades, when in fact all I've had to do is make my daily trip to the waiver wire.  These are some pretty exceptional players to find in the free agent pool and their previous owners will undoubtedly be kicking themselves a few months from now.  Although Brandon Phillips is the extremest example I've every seen, every spring I find myself staring in wonderment at the booty available to me because some sap is too impatient to wait for the inevitable warm weather hot streak from his high-round draft pick.  First and foremost, don't be that guy!!!  Secondly, even if you can't pick up one of these players for the paltry price of Mike Fontenot or Fred Lewis, you may be able to exploit a competitor's impatience via trade.  Here are a few slow-starters I would recommend targeting.

David Ortiz - DH - Boston Red Sox

There is a whole lot of hubbabaloo over at the world-wide leader about how scouts are concerned about David Ortiz.  Those of us with memories longer than six weeks, however, recall a similar stream of Big Papi pessimism last April and May.  In his first 16 games in 2008 Ortiz his .111 with one lonely long ball.  However, from mid-April until he hurt his wrist at the beginning of June, Papi hit .313 with a dozen bombs and 39 RBI in 38 games.  Throughout his career April has been Ortiz's weakest in both AVG and OPS.  Although he still hasn't gone deep in 2009, he is 5-for-12 with four extra-base hits and 4 RBI in the last three games.  The numbers are going to be there in August, which means that now is the best possible time to go get him.

Alexei Ramirez - SS - Chicago White Sox

Let's face it, winter in Cuba and winter in Chicago are very different seasons.  Last April the White Sox mysterious off-season acquisition had a laughable 354 OPS.  He took over as the starter at second on May 16.  From that point on he hit .304 with an 833 OPS.  There are probably owners out there who are prepared to declare Alexei a fluke.  The way I see it, his April OPS in 2009 is 60 points higher than in '08 and I think that's a reasonable improvement to expect in the month which follow.

Brandon Phillips - 2B - Cincinnati Reds

I've never disguised my man-crush for Phillips, so my faith shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.  One thing particularly stands out to me about his statistics so far.  He's already taken eleven walks.  In the entirety of '08 he had 39 walks, which was a career high!  When a hitter dedicates himself to working counts he often suffers a slump, but in the long run it facilitates major improvements.  As such, this slump could actually be a good sign for Phillips owners.

    

Hippeaux endorses...(AL)

It may not be as big of a story as Hillary falling in line behind Obama or Romney endorsing McCain, but I'd like to offer my advice on another upcoming ballot, that for the 2008 All-Star Game in New York. The Break is still a month away, but if you, like me, plan on voting about a hundred times again this year, and not exactly consistently, you'd best be getting started.

One thing to keep in mind: I believe that All-Stars should be based not only on the rather short-term performance of the first ten weeks of 2008, but also on the backstretch of the preceding season, which is why the potentially fluky seasons from the likes of Nate McLouth won't influence my vote...not this year. That said, here's my most common ballot.

American League

1B - Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox (.267 AVG-75 R-16 HR-78 RBI-808 OPS-5 SB)

His dugout tantrums haven't endeared him to Manny, which certainly doesn't earn him any extra credit, but you can't argue with Youk's on-field performance. Since the middle of 2007 he's played 117 games at first, eighteen at third, and two in right field and has made a grand total of three errors. Youkilis has been pretty strong at the plate as well, sporting an 808 OPS during that span.

Youk has climbed in front of Justin Morneau by a pretty significant margin in the early voting, so it seems likely that the fans will get this one right, but Youk's biggest advantage, besides playing for the Red Sox, is the surprisingly weak field of first-baggers in the AL. Since July 12 of last season, only one AL first baseman has more than 22 HR and/or more than 84 RBI, that's Carlos Pena, who racked up most of those totals at the end of last year and is currently on the DL. After Youkilis and Pena, the best options are guys like Jason Giambi and Casey Kotchman.

Runner-Up: Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay Rays (.255-81-37-104-934-1)

2B - Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers (.310-102-14-64-827-29)

As much as I'd like to see half-a-dozen Red Sox take the field at Yankee Stadium for the All-Star game, I can't endorse a player who's 8th in the AL in OPS among second-baseman in 2008 and 11th taking into account the second half of last season. Dustin Pedroia is a fine player, but he isn't the best the league has to offer, not by a long shot.

In about five hundred at-bats since the middle of last season, Kinsler has racked up 102 runs (1st), 14 homers (4th), and 29 stolen bases (2nd), to go with an 827 OPS (1st). Pedroia in those categories: 90 (2nd), 9 (7th), 12 (4th), and 742 (11th). Kinsler's is one of the most overlooked performances in the majors this past year, which is why he is 300,000 votes back of Pedroia and barely holding off Robinson Cano. This is an underdog who should be on every ballot you cast.

Runner-Up: Brian Roberts - Baltimore Orioles (.262-82-11-54-777-41)

3B - Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees (.313-93-34-102-1021-21)

Even despite the injury and the modest start (for him) this season, nobody comes close. A-Rod leads all AL players at the hot corner in runs, home runs, RBIs, walks, slugging, and OPS, finishes second in stolen bases and OBP (Chone Figgins) and third in average (Figgins and Mike Lowell).

Runner-Up: Adrian Beltre - Seattle Mariners (.253-76-26-84-763-13)

SS - Micheal Young - Texas Rangers (.326-86-11-76-827-11)

It goes without saying the Derek Jeter is going to take the field in front of his home crowd in mid-July, but Young has been better than him in almost every statistical category, both offensively and defensively, this year especially. Young just wrapped up a 23-game hitting streak during which he hit .339. During the same span Jeter batted .218. This will be Jeter's third consecutive All-Star start. I doubt that I'm the only one hoping it will be his last.

Runner-Up: Derek Jeter - New York Yankees (.291-78-10-56-758-12)

C - Dioner Navarro - Tampa Bay Rays (.310-48-11-56-820-2)

I know this is going to surprise a lot of you, but over the last eleven months Dioner Navarro ranks 2nd among AL Catchers in batting average, RBI, slugging, and OPS, and 3rd in home runs and on-base percentage. Only Jorge Posada is also in the top three in all those categories and his injury may prevent him from catching on his home turf in July. Navarro has been a big part of solidifying the surprising Rays both offensively and defensively, helping to groom and very productive young pitching staff. He deserves recognition, at least as the alternate.

Runner-Up: Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins (.301-61-5-50-798-2)

OF - Magglio Ordonez - Detroit Tigers (.337-83-24-109-944-2), Manny Ramirez - Boston Red Sox (.310-81-24-91-943-1), Josh Hamilton - Texas Rangers (.316-61-22-88-941-2)

It works out quite well for AL manager, Terry Francona, who has a natural left, center, and right fielder to start the game. Manny and Hamilton are nice sentimental picks who have the numbers to back it up and are currently first and second in the voting. Instead of voting in Ichiro or Vlad during somewhat down seasons merely based on reputation, let's go with the guys who's been hands-down the best outfielder in the AL over the past year. Despite his team's struggles so far this year, Magglio has continued to quietly tear the cover off the ball. Since last year's All-Star Game (when he started in left field), Magglio has more RBIs than any player in the AL. More than A-Rod. More than Big Papi. More than everybody in major league baseball except Ryan Braun and Ryan Howard. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances in the AL since the middle of last season he ranks first in batting average and third in OPS (A-Rod, Papi).

Runners-Up: Milton Bradley - Texas Rangers (.328-77-25-75-1063-7)
Nick Markakis - Baltimore Orioles (.311-85-24-90-912-17)
B. J. Upton - Tampa Bay Rays (.289-90-20-89-856-29)

DH - David Ortiz - Boston Red Sox (.307-97-34-108-1013-2)

Big Papi may not return from the DL in time for the All-Star festivities. Milton Bradley would be the perfect replacement, but unfortunately his name isn't on the ballot for the DH position. The runner up will probably be Jim Thome, who also has respectable numbers for the last eleven months.

Runner-Up: Jim Thome - Chicago White Sox (.248-77-34-85-885-1)

That's right, I've got three Rangers, as well as three Red Sox, on my 2008 AL All-Star ballot. The do, after all, lead all of baseball in runs scored. In addition, I expect Milton Bradley to be among the alternates (you hear me, Francona!). As of right now, all but one of my suggestion are ranked one or two (or among the top six outfielders) at their respective positions, so start punching those chads, stuffing those ballot boxes, and creating those fake email addresses. Let's get these guys to New York in July!

The New Nightmare

This weekend two of the best sluggers in baseball will be in Boston, taking aim at the Green Monster.  It's a 3-4 combo featuring a lanky, defensively-challenged, somewhat surly right-handed left-fielder and an intimidatingly large, but ever-smiling, defensively-challenged left-handed first baseman.  It might be one of the best hitting pairs in baseball history.  I know, you may be asking yourself, "Don't these guys play in Boston, like, every weekend?"

Well, no, because I'm talking about Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Since Braun arrived in the majors just less than a year ago, he and Fielder have combined for 84 HR and 232 RBI, significantly more than Manny and Big Papi over the same span (55 HR, 196 RBI).  More than any 3-4 combo in baseball, for that matter, combos like A-Rod/Abreu (58 HR, 227 RBI), Berkman/El Cabayo (74 HR, 225 RBI), and D-Lee/Ramirez (50 HR, 176 RBI).  Moreover, while each of those pairs features two mature players, every one of them over the age of 30, Fielder and Braun have a combined age of 48 years, 6 months, and 3 days.

In other words, together they are younger than recently retired Julio Franco.  

Like Manny and Papi, they have a very strong supporting cast, especially on offense, most of whom are also quite young.  What the Brew Crew doesn't have, is pitching depth, which is why they are likely to get pummeled this weekend by the superior Red Sox team, who will send Beckett, Dice-K, and Wakefield to the mound to face Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva.  Despite a dramatically overhauled mercenary bullpen (Gagne, Riske, Torres, and Mota all signed this past offseason), the Brewers are among the league's worst in blown saves and bullpen ERA (8 BS, 4.37 ERA).  Strangely, despite the continued dominance of Papelbon (2.41, 11 SV) and Okajima (0.93, 9 HLD, 1 SV), Boston's relief corps have been pretty putrid as well (8 BS, 4.56 ERA).  If starting pitching fails to contain these two potent offenses, we could see some real slugfests.