Gold Gloves Meaningless, Laughable...As Usual

For those of you acquainted with the sabermetric argument for defensive statistics, there won't be much news here, but I want to make my annual rant about the Gold Glove voting, which serious students of the game stopped taking seriously a long time ago, but which is still used to incentivize contracts, on Hall of Fame plaques, and by a hoard of ignorant pundits annually.  Here's the basics.

Obviously, we all prefer the aspects of the game which can be measured with our own eyes.  Unfortunately, defense is something that can only effectively evaluated over the long term (even one season is kind of a small sample size).  Every athlete in the league is capable of the occasional web gem.  We can't allow ourselves to be conned into hyperbolic attestations based on a single play or short series of plays spanning a few games.  As a result, nobody can hope to see enough baseball each season to be capable of making reasoned judgements without consulting some form of statistic.  If you watch your team everyday, you probably know pretty confidently which of your defenders are good, great, fine, weak, and ugly, and you could probably get confirmation of those observations using statistics.  But you can't make a reasoned, objective judgment about how your shortstop or left-fielder stacks up against the rest of the league, because you watch the 29 other teams but rarely.  To make the Gold Glove a meaningful award, the voters have to rely of some conglomeration of statistics.  Otherwise they are, as I've stated ad nauseum, meaningless and laugable.  

I openly admit that no defensive metric is perfect.  Every position demands a variety of skills and every player brings a different tools to the table.  Vlad Guerrero still has an exceptional throwing arm, but as he showed during Game One of the World Series, he's no longer very flexible or fleet of foot.  Juan Pierre has exceptional speed, but has a noodle arm and the tendency to take meandering routes to balls in the gap.  Any defensive assessment is, at last, imperfect, regardless of how much observational and statistical data we bring to the table.  We should, however, recognize that the advanced metrics (UZR is the most readily available) are based upon the charting of every play that every player is involved in.  As such, they do a lot of work that our eyes cannot.  There are flaws in the charting systems, certainly, but they get better with every passing year.  And, if you are really geeked on defense, you can look at something like John Dewan's Fielding Bible, which will breakdown not only "overall" defensive performance, but analyze how players approach specific types of plays (coming in v. going out, up-the-middle v. in-the-hole, around the bag v. off the line, etc.).

Since no one stat tells the whole story (although UZR comes pretty close), certain comparisons are too close to call.  Rob Neyer might suggest that Brett Gardner was marginally better than Carl Crawford this year, but both were extremely good.  And Neyer would happily admit that the small difference between them could be related to their ballparks, pitching staffs, and the simple fact that they didn't get exactly the same set of potential chances.  As such, I don't think it's all that unreasonable to give Crawford the hardware.  He's been an elite defensive outfielder for far longer than Gardner, so we know there's nothing the least bit flukey about his 2010 numbers.  The same can honestly be said about the choice of Evan Longoria over Adrian Beltre and Kevin Kouzmanoff, the choice of Troy Tulowitzki over Brendan Ryan, the choice of Albert Pujols over Ike Davis, etc.

All told, I'd say 13 of the 18 Gold Glove recipients were at least modestly deserving this season, which is actually pretty good, so I'm going to reserve my comments for the ones who clearly weren't:

AL SS (9 Q):	UZR	RF	FPCT	ZR	OOZ	RngR	ErrR	INN	Errors
Derek Jeter	-4.7 (#7)	3.78 (#8)	.989 (#1)	6.63 (#2)	38 (#9)	-11.8 (#9)	6.5 (#1)	1303 (#4)	6 (#1)
Elvis Andrus	0.1 (#4)	4.48 (#4)	.976 (#4)	5.61 (#6)	46 (#6)	1.3 (#4)	-2.6 (#8)	1291 (#5)	16 (#4)
Cliff Pennington	9.9 (#2)	4.93 (#1)	.966 (#7)	5.01 (#9)	53 (#4)	9.4 (#1)	0.6 (#5)	1304 (#3)	25 (#9)
Alexei Ramirez	10.8 (#1)	4.89 (#2)	.974 (#6)	5.09 (#8)	67 (#1)	8.4 (#2)	1.0 (#4)	1376 (#1)	20 (#7)

Let's get this out of the way.  Derek Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove for his performance in 2010.  Jeter has become the posterchild for all that is wrong with the voting process.  There's no doubt, in fact, that the exposes which originated out of Baseball Prospectus a few years back actually spurred Jeter to rededicate himself to defense and in '08 and '09 he was better than he'd ever been (though still not nearly the best).  At this point, however, his age has merely caught up to him, and even stalwart Yankee fans will admit he's mediocre...at best.  He has hardly any mobility on either side and has one of the weakest arms at his position.

What he is, however, is very sure-handed on balls hit directly at him, which explains his league-leading fielding percentage.  It also explains why Alexei Ramirez created nearly twice as many outs outside the average shortstop zone and was involved in nearly 100 more plays.  According to FanGraphs, all that range (not to mention his incredible throwing arm) helped Ramirez to save his team approximately fifteen more runs than Captain Intangible over the course of the 2010 season.

Jeter's isn't the only Gold Glove causing accusations of Yankee bias...

BBA Ballot: Stan Musial Award

I'm going to have plenty to say about what I consider the most exciting World Series matchup since at least 2005, but there's plenty of time between now and Game One.  So, to prevent myself from being distracted by the BBA Award deadline, which unfortunately falls during the Series, I'm going to go ahead and get in my ballot for the most valuable position player in each league:

American League:

10. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
9. Paul Konerko (White Sox)

Let's begin with a couple of players from the AL Central who will probably be largely overlooked.  Konerko had a career year at the age of 34, driving in 111 with 39 bombs, while batting .312 with a career high 977 OPS.  Without his tremendous performance, it's hard to imagine the Sox would've hung with the Twins for as long as they did.  Choo's team, of course, didn't hang with anybody, unless you count the Royals, who barely beat the Indians out for worst team in the division.  Choo, however, hitting in a lineup absent of other threats, continued his ascension towards the top of the AL with his second consecutive 20/20 season.  He hit .300 with a .401 OBP and drove in 90 runs, while playing a very commendable right field.

8. Joe Mauer (Twins)

It may have seemed a disappointing season when compared with his MVP campaign in 2009, but Mauer is still a premium defensive catcher who finished third in the league in hitting (.327) and OBP (.402).  With no Morneau in the second-half, he was the driving force in a lineup that was among the best in baseball, while also guiding a rotation which dramatically outperformed expectations.  Will he be worth $20 Million in 2018?  That remains to be seen, but he certainly was this season.

7. Evan Longoria (Rays)
6. Carl Crawford (Rays)

It was difficult to separate the Rays studs, who actually finished in a tie for third in the AL in WAR (6.9, also tied with Jose Bautista).  Longoria was the RBI man (102) with power (32 HR), while Crawford was the speedy table-setter (110 R, 47 SB), who also posted plenty of extra-base hits (62).  Both played exceptional defense at their positions, hit for high averages, and played basically every game.  Crawford, of course, benefitted from having Longoria batting behind him, while Longoria benefitted from frequently having Crawford on base in front of him, driving pitchers crazy.  This could easily be flip-flopped, but I gave Crawford the slight edge.

5. Adrian Beltre (Red Sox)

The Red Sox played much of their season without Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron.  When you lose more than half your Opening Day starting lineup, you're not supposed to win 89 games, particularly in the AL Easy.  The main reason the BoSox stayed in the hunt until the final weeks of the season was Adrian Beltre, who was nothing short of spectacular both offensively and defensively.  He led the AL in doubles, was fourth in the league in hitting, and fifth in OPS.  His 11.8 UZR was easily the best among third-basemen.

4. Robinson Cano (Yankees)

The Yankees postseason lineup featured five players making more money than Cano, but there's no denying who New York's MVP was in 2010, both during the regular season and in October.  Cano, who the Yankees have signed through 2013, has turned into a real bargain.  Not only did he set career highs in HR (29), RBI (109), and OPS (914), while again hitting well above .300, but he also made dramatic strides with his fielding for the second straight season.

3. Jose Bautista (Blue Jays)

Bautista's season was nothing short of remarkable.  The 30-year-old breakout sensation was the first player to break the 50 HR plateau since 2007, and had 15 more bombs than any other player in the American League.  Bautista also showed excellent plate discipline (100 BB/116 K) and versatility, by playing 3B as well as both corner outfield spots.  Many will question his ability to duplicate this type of performance, but all the underlying metrics, including his spectacularly low .233 BABIP, suggest this was not a fluke.

2. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)

Miggy led the league in OBP (.420), OPS+ (179), and RBI (126), among other things, while hitting at the center of a beleaguered lineup, which is why he also led the league in intentional walks (32).  Clearly, his offseason pledge to stay off the sauce paid major dividends for the Tigers and his massive contract has thusfar been warranted.  In fact, one gets the sense that, at 27, Miggy's best years are still in front of him, which is frightening, considering he's gotten MVP votes every year since he entered the league.  If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably be talking about this eight-year stretch as among the best ever to begin a career.

1. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)

Every day is a challenge for Hamilton...outside the lines.  But he proved again this year that when he's healthy - physically and mentally - the game of baseball is actually pretty easy for him.  His 8.0 WAR paced baseball, even though he missed most of the final month of the season.  He won his first batting titles, led the AL in OPS, and played excellent defense in both center and left.  Most importantly, the team he led made their first trip to the postseason in over a decade, won their first playoff series, and has now punched their first ticket to the World Series.  None of that happens without Hamilton.

National League:

10. Andres Torres (Giants)

Certainly, Torres is among the best "feel good" stories of the 2010 season.  However, most people don't realize that he actually finished 7th in the NL in WAR (6.0), ahead of preeminent names like Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun.  Certainly, Torres was good as the Giants leadoff hitter, bring power (67 extra-base hits) and speed (26 SB), but he was outstanding in the outfield, easily leading the league with a 21.2 UZR.  Flanked on both sides by below average fielders, Torres' defensive range, as much as anything, explains why the Giants season really took off after he was made an everyday player.

9. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)

Although it was a disappointing season overall for the Cardinals, Holliday definitely lived up to expectations in his first full season in St. Louis, hitting .312 with 28 HR and 103 RBI.  He provided exactly what the Cardinals were looking for in terms of protecting El Hombre.

8. Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)

As A-Gonz goes, so go the Padres.  He carried his team through much of the season and, at the All-Star Break, was probably neck-and-neck with Pujols and Votto in terms of MVP consideration.  However, he fell off slightly in the second half and slumped dramatically down the stretch (.200 AVG in final 17 games), and the surprising Padres ended up falling short of a playoff berth.  Still, 31 HR, 101 RBI, and a 904 OPS playing at PETCO Park and hitting in the middle of a terribly lineup is very, very impressive.  Someday Gonzo will leave San Diego and when he does, the numbers could be truly terrifying.

7. Jayson Werth (Phillies)

In the past, Werth has always been a great compliment to the cast of MVP candidates at the top of the Philadelphia lineup.  This year, however, J-Roll, Utley, and Howard all spent significant time on the DL, and Werth was the only constant.  He rose to the occasion and helped the Phillies put up the best record in baseball, despite their plague of injuries.

6. Aubrey Huff (Giants)

I made the Huff for MVP case a couple weeks ago.  I'm not going to rehash the details, but, clearly, Huff was the only constant at the heart of the lineup for the eventual pennant-winners and he also showed versatility and was surprisingly efficient in the field.  Not enough to warrant top five consideration, but a very commendable season for the journeyman.

5. Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)

If Colorado had made the postseason the back of Tulo's historic September (15 HR, 40 RBI, 1120 OPS), he might've cracked the top three.  Tulo, of course, also brings outstanding defensive prowess at a key position, but the fact that he missed a quarter of the season holds him back slightly.

4. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)

Another guy who flashes some major leather, but also missed a substantial amount of time, unfortunately.  If you don't live in D. C., you may not have noticed how good Z-Pack was this year.  Even with his trip to the disabled list, he managed to finish third in the NL in WAR (7.2).

3. Joey Votto (Reds)
2. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
1. Albert Pujols (Cardinals)

This is, of course, the much-publicized battle, as each of these guys seemed like Triple Crown threats at one point or another.  In the end, they all finished top five in the league in nearly all the major categories.  Pujols paced the senior circuit in homers (42) and RBI (118), while CarGo won the batting title (.336) and Votto the OPS crown (1024).  But in none of these categories did one have a tremendous advantage over the others.  You could say that CarGo's numbers are inflated by the Coor Field factor, but, of course, Great American Ballpark isn't exactly a pitchers park.  You could say that Votto's numbers are inflated because he was hitting at the center of the NL's most productive lineup, but the Rockies (#3) and Cardinals (#6) weren't that far behind.  Freakishly, all three of these guys also had double-digit steals, so it was difficult to make an argument for CarGo based on his clearly better speed.  You can make a strong argument for ranking these guys in any order, but here's my rationale.

1.) It ain't that easy being Albert.  Even with Holliday batting behind him, Pujols once again led the NL in intentional passes, for the third year in a row.  While Votto and CarGo are still earning the respect of the league, Pujols frequently gets the Bonds treatment, where opposing managers choose to force somebody else to beat them.  This helps his run totals (he led the league with 115) and OBP (.414), but makes those RBI seem even more exceptional.

2.) For power-hitters, Votto and CarGo don't have extremely high strikeout rates, but Pujols is just flat-out superhuman.  For the eighth consecutive season he walked more than he struck out (103/76).  Again, that's Bonds-esque.

3.) All three of these guys are good defenders, but Pujols is one of the best ever at his position.  And, CarGo gets a little bonus because of his ability to play center, a premium defensive position.  

Narrative Likability Factor & The San Francisco Giants

The Giants began this season looking much like they have for the entirety of Bruce Bochy's tenure, which began in 2007.  They had pitching, in abundance, led by the youthful trio of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez, but they had a lineup composed primarily of overpaid, over-the-hill veterans who hit very little and fielded less.  After two months, Giants fans must've had an eery feeling of deja vu.  They were still in the thick of the NL West hunt, but the team seemed content wasting at-bats on Edgar Renteria, Aaron Rowand, and Bengie Molina.  It seemed only a matter of time before the Rockies and the Dodgers simply hit their way past San Francisco, just as they had done in each of the last three years.

The first step in Brian Sabean's plan to thwart this inevitability was so obvious, one might call it shameful that he hadn't resorted to it sooner.  He recalled top prospect, Buster Posey, who had done nothing but hit ever since the Giants drafted him.  The fresh-faced Posey was almost immediately inserted in the center of the lineup.  He has been the Giants most productive hitter ever since.  But the remainder of his strategy was neither particularly obvious, nor particularly advisable.  Basically, Sabean decided he was going to the scrap heap, looking for the players other teams were giving up on.  Such players, many of them with some modicum of former glory, would be carrying a chip on their collective shoulders which might further inspire their performance, at least over the short term.  Somehow this motley crew of overweight infielders, former designated hitters, and minor-league journeymen, replete with aching backs, bad knees, and tendonitis, were able to inch the Giants into the postseason, where, suddenly, sporting one of the game's best rotations, they become a serious threat.  As part of my ongoing dissertation on Narrative Likability Factor in the 2010 playoffs, here's a look at the cast of San Francisco's EXPENDABLES:

• Andres Torres, CF:  The face of the Expendables is definitely Andres Torres, who Sabean signed to a minor-league contract prior to the 2009 season.  At the time, Torres was 30-years-old and had been through six different organizations without being granted more than 168 at-bats at the major-league level.  His most recent cup of coffee had come with the Rangers in 2005 and had lasted all of eight games.  Torres had long ago been reckoned "organizational depth."  The Giants were unenthusiastic, even following Torres's excellent performance at AAA in '08.  They gave younger, mid-level prospects like John Bowker, Nate Schierholtz, and Travis Ishikawa every opportunity to win the job that fell, finally and reluctantly, to him.  Torres responded to his first ever shot at regular playing time by becoming the most valuable center-fielder in the National League.  His 6.0 WAR trails only Matt Holliday and Carlos Gonzalez among NL outfielders and his 21.5 UZR was best in the league.  Meanwhile, he'll take home the league minimum and won't be eligible for free agency until 2014, by which point he'll be 36.  If the Giants win the pennant, Andres Torres becomes the future subject of a Disney biopic.  You heard it here first.
• Juan Uribe, SS:  The long-time White Sox shortstop also joined the Giants prior to the '09 season.  Sabean gave him a minor-league contract and the opportunity to win a utilityman job for just 20% of the salary he'd made the previous season. Clearly, there wasn't a bidding war following a year in which Uribe missed substantial time, posted a 682 OPS, and quarreled with Ozzie Guillen.  Uribe played 300 innings at three different positions in '09 and hit well enough that the Giants resigned him this past offseason.  In May he became their everyday shortstop, potentially the fattest everyday shortstop in the history of major-league baseball, and responded my posting career highs in homers (24) and RBI (85).
• Aubrey Huff, 1B:  Huff has had a helluva ride the last few years.  After an extended tenure with the Devil Rays, Huff signed a sizable deal with the Orioles and rewarded them with a big year in 2008, when he won a Silver Slugger and even got some MVP votes.  The following year, however, he was so bad that the Orioles traded him to Detroit at the deadline for a bucket of balls and a minor-league reliever.  This offseason, as he recovered from a back injury that kept him out of the lineup for much of the stretch run, nobody wanted anything to do with him and he ended up signing a one-year deal with the Giants for less than half of what he'd become accustomed to making.  Following a slow start, he has once again turned himself into an MVP candidate, leading the Giants in runs, homers, RBI, and OPS.  Of this cast of Expendables, he looks the most like a washed-up Hollywood action hero.
• Santiago Casilla, RP:  The 30-year-old reliever spent three years doing mop-up duty in Oakland before being unceremoniously released by Billy Beane during the offseason.  Across the Bay, Sabean saw something he liked.  Casilla has blossomed in San Francisco proper, becoming one of the Giants top set-up men and posting a miniscule 1.95 ERA in 55 innings of work.  A big-bodied flame-thrower without a second pitch, Casilla is basically the Latino Bobby Jenks.
• Pat Burrell, LF:  Pat the Bat also fell from grace in a hurry.  The longtime Phillie signed a sizable deal with the Rays prior to '09.  He was awful as their DH and ran amok with teammates and management to such a degree that the cash-starved Rays released him, eating about $7 Million in salary.  Sabean swooped in with a minor-league deal and Burrell eventually became the team's everyday left-fielder, swatting 18 HR and driving in 51 in half a season.  This man clearly should've never again played the outfield, but he's still good for the occasional 440 ft. moonshot.
• Ramon Ramirez, RP: Ramirez joined his sixth organization prior to his 29th birthday.  It was the fourth time he'd been traded, most notably on the other end of deals for Jorge De La Rosa and Coco Crisp.  Ramirez had been a very valuable, durable middle reliever for two seasons in Boston, accumulating a 2.74 ERA in 141 innings between '08 and '09.  But when he started slow, the Boston brass looked to unload him for a 23-year-old with a 4.09 ERA at AA.  As the Boston bullpen imploded down the stretch, it might've been nice to have the guy who has given up only two earned runs since joining the Giants (0.67 ERA).
• Jose Guillen, RF:  Perhaps feeling invincible by this point, Sabean netted Guillen in a waiver trade with the Royals in August.  Guillen is most famous for being such an unbelievable pain in the ass that the Angels asked him to leave during a season in which he had driven in over a hundred runs.  He also has one of the ten best throwing arms in major-league history (according to MLB Network).  The Giants are Guillen's tenth major-league team.  Always a tantalizing talent, Guillen never managed to make an All-Star team and had just that one lonely season of 100+ RBI.  This one has had only modest returns thusfar, as Guillen has been merely replacement level since joining San Francisco.  However, he's a notoriously streaky hitter, if he got hot in October it could be exactly the thing to spur the Giants to an unlikely pennant.
• Cody Ross, OF:  Ross was unexpectedly DFA'd by his former team, the Marlins, after two solid seasons as their centerfielder.  For the Giants, he plays against southpaws, pinch-hits, and comes in as a defensive replacement.  He's performed admirably in that capacity. 

If there has every been a gaggle of baseball grinders with something to prove, this is it.  And that makes the Giants a lovable underdog.  They are old, they are slow, occasionally to the point of provoking laughter.  They swing for the fences with great frequency and miss with greater ferocity.  They are, like Sylvester Stallone, often aggravating and painful to watch.  If the Giants advance, it will be primarily because of their stable of flamethrowing 25-year-olds.  But in order for that to happen, the 35-year-olds are going to have a grind out at least a couple runs a game and when it happens, it's cause for the kind of elation usually reserved for middle-aged men who hit homers at fantasy camp.

Narrative Likability Factor: A