Jason Bay v. Cynicism

It has been reported that the Mets are on the verge of signing a long-term contract with Jason Bay, the left-fielder, most recently of the Red Sox, who is probably most famous as the guy who Manny Ramirez got traded for. New York has reportedly given Bay $66 Million over four years, with a vesting option which could add a fifth year at $14 Million.

So, while Bay will not become baseball's 20th Hundred Million Dollar Man (if recent reports are accurate, that title will fall to Matt Holliday), if the fifth year vests, his contract would be among the largest dozen or so ever given to an outfielder, just behind Torii Hunter (5 yr./$90 Mil.) and just ahead of J. D. Drew (5 yr./$70 Mil.).

Several commentators, including a fair number of Mets fans, have criticized the Bay signing. Rob Neyer calls Bay a "slow power hitter who can't really play the outfield." And while I'm usually prone to agree with Rob and I share his skepticism to some extent, I'm generally quite surprised by all the negativity. Jason Bay, it would appear to me, is the kind of guy who deserves to get paid. In six full seasons, he has never played less than 120 games. Four times he's topped 30 HR and 100 RBI. In only one season (2007) did his OPS dip below 895. He's soft-spoken and popular with his teammates. When he came over to Boston, in the middle of a highly-scrutinized pennant race, replacing one of the best players in the franchise's history, he really rose to the occasion, hitting .315 with 29 RBI in his first month with the team. What's not to like?

Well, there is the question of his "slowness." Early in his career Bay was a 20/20 man, who even played a little centerfield, but a knee surgery in 2006 has limited him somewhat. It shouldn't go unnoticed, however, that Bay is still a smart and effective baserunner. He stole ten bases in '08 without being caught and thirteen in '09 (only being caught three times), bringing his career stolen base rate to an admirable 82.5%. He may not be a burner, but this isn't exactly Paul Konerko either.

Bay's defense is also considered a liability, and there is more substantial proof to that effect. He's always had a noodle arm, but in recent years his overall outfield performance has really gone in the tank. In his first three years with the Pirates, his UZR stayed right around the league average, perfectly acceptable for a hitter of his quality, but from '07 to '09 he has posted Ultimate Zone Ratings of -11.5, -18.4, and -13.0. Pure faith in UZR would probably lead us to rank him as quite possibly the worst everyday left-fielders in all of baseball, and left field isn't exactly a position known for defense. Of course, for half of that time he was playing left field at Fenway, which is probably the single most abnormal positional space in the whole league, so I think we have to question the reliability of his recent defensive metrics. Is he a Gold-Glover? Absolutely not. Is he as bad as Adam Dunn or Raul Ibanez? I sincerely doubt it.

Buster Olney sagely points out that last year the Mets primary left-fielders were Gary Sheffield and Daniel Murphy, neither of whom will probably ever play the position again, so Jason Bay is a considerable upgrade. The Mets other outfielders, Carlos Betran and Jeff Francoeur, are both excellent defenders (especially Beltran), which should compensate slightly for whatever range Bay lacks.

In the same column, Olney carefully analyzes Bay's homers from '09 on Hit Tracker, responding to the other major criticism against Bay, that his power won't translate to spacious Citi Field. He concludes that Bay would've still hit 30 HR as a Met, rather than the 36 he hit as a Red Sock (sp?). I think the Mets would be perfectly happy with that total.

Last week I argued that the Mets best course of action this offseason was to "stand pat," rather than pursue expensive free agents like Bay and Joel Pineiro. I knew they wouldn't go that route, but I thought it made for a nice hypothetical. I still don't think they have the firepower to catch the Phillies, because even if they follow the Bay signing with the acquisition of Pineiro, Ben Sheets, or Erik Bedard, they won't have the rotational depth of a serious contender. In the end, regardless of the what the Mets do for the remainder of the offseason, they are going to need everything to go right in 2010 if they are even to have a shot at the Wild Card in a division which features the powerhouse Phillies and two other solid franchises, the Braves and the Marlins.

Whether or not New York gets the resurgence of power they expect from Bay and David Wright (who hit only 10 HR in '09) is dependent mainly on the health of Carlos Beltran (81 games in '09) and Jose Reyes (36 games in '09). If both are fully healthy, than the Mets lineup looks like something to be reckoned with. If not, than Bay and Wright will be consistently pitched around, just as Wright and Sheffield were in '09, and the run-scoring will slow to a trickle. Even more important is the health of Johan Santana, who missed the final six weeks of '09 with an elbow injury which required surgery. If the Mets have to enter next season without their horse, the season will be over before it begins.

New York, New York

Buster Olney's blog on ESPN.com this morning feature a discussion of the early returns from Yankee Stadium and Citi Field. Granted, we shouldn't be quick to judge a park on two weeks in April, but 17 HR and 49 R in three games is enough to make even the most disciplined statistician whistle through his gap teeth. It's even more remarkable when you consider that one of those games started as a pitcher's duel between C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee that was locked in a 1-1 tie through six innings.

Sure part of the Indians 22-run explosion on Saturday can be attributed to the struggles of Chien-Ming Wang (6 IP, 34.50 ERA), who's looked like a batting practice pitcher in each of his last three starts. He got equally pummeled in Tampa Bay, which isn't exactly a hitter's haven, and Baltimore last week.

In the long run, if Yankee Stadium continues to play like Coor's Field (or worse!?!), it will have major fantasy repercussions. The stock of Yankee's hitters - already pretty high - goes up, while the stock of Yankee's pitchers goes down. Besides Wang, who shouldn't be starting in any leagues until he proves himself capable of getting past the second inning, I am particularly worried about A. J. Burnett. While Sabathia's flyball rate has been consistently declining in recent years, from 41.0% in 2004 to 31.7% last season, Burnett's is headed in the other direction, from an exceptional 22.3% in 2005 to 32.0% in '08, which may be why he averaged 21 HR allowed in his last two seasons with the Blue Jays. The good news for the Yankees is that both Sabathia and Burnett, as well as Joba Chamberlain, have exceptional strikeout rates, something which should be immune to park factors.

The immediate impact for fantasy owners is that you should consider benching mid-tier starters when they visit the Yankees, something you might have been tempted to do regardless. And while most of the Yankee regulars are already owned in most leagues, you may consider picking up a guy like Melky Cabrera, or trading for guys like Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon, and Derek Jeter, all of whom may be on the verge of an unexpected power spike. Also, visiting players could be good waiver wire acquisitions. For instance, Asdrubel Cabrera, probably unowned in most shallow leagues, went 5-for-8 in two games in New York this week, with a homer, four runs, and five RBI.

Across town, the early observers of Citi Field are predicting it to be considerably advantageous to pitchers. Things may change as the weather warms up, but that could be great news for Oliver Perez. Perez has surrendered 20+ HR in every season since 2003, which is part of the reason we remain skeptical about him in spite of his obvious talent. A subtle decrease in his homer rate could make a big difference in his ERA and win totals. To a lesser extent, the same may be said of Mike Pelfrey and John Maine.

While the dimensions of their ballpark will have little to no impact on the value of Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran, none of whom rely heavily on the homer, it may be the right time to unload Carlos Delgado and Ryan Church. They are both off to hot starts, but Citi may be particularly hard on left-handed power hitters both offer other risks as well. Delgado is, of course, aging, though showing no major indications of decline yet, at 37. Church is an injury risk and in danger of losing at-bats to Gary Sheffield, who is determined to make the Tigers pay for releasing him and is, more importantly, a right-handed power threat, something that the Mets are missing (outside of David Wright). Sheff will almost certainly start against lefties so long as he is healthy and effective, and if he proves he's still the same player he was two years ago, it is only a matter of time before he "demands" full-time player status. In deep leagues, I recommend picking him up RIGHT NOW.

As I said earlier, we should be cautious in making too much of a week's worth of games. However, fantasy leagues are won by being aware of factors that others may not pay attention to.