Fantastic Thoughts: "A. J. Pierzynski is no longer very good...if he ever was." (Fantasy Baseball Catcher Preview)

I'm going to keep things simple and leadoff with a quote from last year:


"There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop."


That .275-70-15-70 line was even more unattainable than usual for backstops in 2010.  Only one catcher topped 70 R (Mauer).  Only four topped 70 RBI (Mauer, McCann, Martinez, and Kurt Suzuki).  And only five hit upwards of .275 in 400 or more plate appearances (Mauer, Martinez, Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, and John Buck).  Which only further emphasizes my point that it's silly to pay for a middle-tier catcher when you could've had players like Buck, Ruiz, Posey, and Miguel Olivo for next to nothing.  Moreover, some of the usually "safe" middle-tier selections - Pierzynski, the Molinas, Hernandez - suffered significantly down seasons.  


The result is that we've got a pretty top-heavy class in 2011.  


1. Joe Mauer, MIN
2. Victor Martinez, DET
3. Brian McCann, ATL


Nothing's changed.  These were my top three in 2010 and have all been top five for most of their careers.  I do think McCann is somewhat of a distant third, just because he doesn't hit for a high average and doesn't have the luxury of getting some "off days" at DH, but he's also got more power than Mauer or V-Mart.  


4. Buster Posey, SFG
5. Geovany Soto, CHC
6. Carlos Santana, CLE


I've seen a lot of analysts ranking Posey as high as #1 or #2, but I just don't see any reason why we should believe he's immune to the sophomore slump.  Sure, his talent is superlative, but I'd like to see at least one more year of exceptional production before I'm ready to rank him alongside a three-time batting champ and a four-time All-Star.  I actually flirted with dropping him to fifth.  The reason?  Do you know who led all catchers (with 300+ AB) in OPS last season?  It wasn't Posey.  It wasn't Mauer, Martinez, or McCann.  It was Geovany Soto.  He only got 97 starts, but hit .280 with 17 HR and 53 RBI.  Now that Lou Pinella had fled Chicago, Soto will likely be in line for increased playing time and could be considered an elite catching option by this time next year.


7. Jorge Posada, NYY
8. Miguel Montero, ARZ
9. Matt Wieters, BAL
10. Mike Napoli, TEX


Sadly, this is what passes for "tried and true" among the 2011 catching corps: a 39-year-old DH with several trips to the DL in his recent past, a 27-year-old who's started upwards of 75 games only once in his career, a former blue-chip prospect who had a sub-700 OPS in 2010, and a defensively-challenged power-hitter who doesn't have a clear hold on at-bats with his new franchise.  I rank them this way because I assume at least two of the four will finish well inside the top ten in terms of production by the end of the season, but in a one-catcher league I wouldn't touch any of these guys unless they fell deep on draft day or came at a significantly reduced rate (i.e. under $10).


11. Russell Martin, NYY
12. J. P. Arencibia, TOR
13. John Buck, FLA


These are the most interesting late-round flier/sleeper candidates.  Martin used to be a stud, but after two down years, the Dodgers essentially gave up on him.  If he's healthy, he's a solid bet for comeback of the year in New York, playing alongside his childhood hero, Derek Jeter.  The Jays showed their faith in Arencibia by letting Buck walk and trading Napoli to Texas.  The rookie has serious power potential at the Skydome, but could be an average drain in 5X5 leagues.  Buck is coming off a spectacular breakout season in which he was a top-five fantasy catcher, but he'd look dangerously like a fluke even if he weren't moving to a much less friendly ballpark in Florida.  


14. Carlos Ruiz, PHI
15. Kurt Suzuki, OAK
16. Yadier Molina, STL
17. Miguel Olivo, SEA
18. A. J. Pierzynski, CWS


You probably aren't interested in any of these guys unless it's a two-catcher league, but in that format they are quite valuable.  All are "iron-men" types whose managers keep them in the lineup as much for defense as anything else, but all those starts lead to decent totals in the counting categories.  You just have to cross your fingers that they won't destroy your average.


19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS
20. Chris Iannetta, COL
21. Jason Castro, HOU
22. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL


This is the second tier of high-risk, high-reward candidates.  They're all fairly young.  They've all got some upside.  And they all seem in line for full-time jobs.  That could certainly change.  Both Saltalamacchia and Iannetta have been given chances before.  They've always bombed.  But this could be the year, right?


23. Jesus Flores, WAS
24. Ramon Hernandez, CIN
25. Ryan Doumit, PIT
26. John Jaso, TB
27. Chris Snyder, PIT
28. Ryan Hanigan, CIN
29. Kelly Shoppach, TB 


When it comes to catching platoons, it really comes down to how much room you have on your rosters and how much you're willing to work for it.  Last year in Cincinnati, Hernandez and Hanigan combined for 55 R, 12 HR, 88 RBI, and a .298 AVG.  If you were cagey enough to have the right guy in your lineup every night, that line would've been equivalent to drafting a top-five backstop.  Can you get Cincinnati's daily lineup delivered straight to your phone?  I bet you could.  Will you?


The more reasonable sleeper here is Flores, who, before losing nearly two years to surgery, seemed to be developing into a solid hitter.  He's still just 26.  The Nationals catching situation, which also involves Pudge Rodriguez (questing after 3000 hits) and top prospect Wilson Ramos, is crowded, so Flores is unlikely to get a lot of opportunities in D.C., but there are several team's that might be willing to give him an everyday job and will be watching he progress closely during Spring Training.


30. Hank Conger, LAA
31. Wilson Ramos, WAS
32. Jesus Montero, NYY
33. Tyler Flowers, CWS


These are baseball's best major-league ready catching prospects.  Unfortunately, there's a strong chance most of them won't see substantial time in 2011.  Mike Scioscia seems committed to a folly named Jeff Mathis in Anaheim.  The White Sox resigned A. J. Pierzynski, despite a poor showing in 2010.  Wilson Ramos is blocked by Flores and Pudge; Montero by Martin and Posada.  However, injury or ineffectiveness could supply them with opportunity.  Were that to happen, they would immediately be fantasy relevant, even worthy of consideration inside the top 12-15 catchers.  


34. Rod Barajas, LAD
35. Alex Avila, DET
36. Yorvit Torrealba, SD
37. Jason Kendall, KC
38. Ivan Rodriguez, WAS


Somewhere, somehow your draft must have gone horribly wrong.

"Narrative Likability Factor: A Metric For Humanities Majors" & The Minnesota Twins

Any of you who have read this blog before are well aware that I have no problem being conversive in sabermetrics.  This is not a intended as an anti-SABR diatribe or parody.  All I intend to suggest is that at times, and especially in the romantic seasons (i. e. spring and fall), it is easy to become immersed in baseball humanism.  Baseball humanism is the perception that the game possesses a metanarrative, something akin to a parable, or a synechdoche of American history, which makes it more than just a mechanism for enabling gamblers.

Certainly, at its worst, baseball humanism inspires crass nostalgia, old-fogeyism, and self-righteousness.  It is the undercurrent of belligerent steroid conspiracy theories, short-sighted assertions that baseball's "Golden Age" happened prior to integration, basically the entire body of Murray Chass' forgettable canon, and the abundant moralizing of other half-wit sportswriters.  Being a good baseball humanist does not, as Chass believes, mean you hate statistics and stubbornly believe that the abject coincidences of your own experience are necessarily equivalent to "truth."  Bill James and Rob Neyer, two of the most notorious voices of sabermetrics, are both apparent baseball humanists.  The power of baseball humanism (like all humanisms, for that matter) is in our hope that the game, governed by a fairly knowable system of laws, conventions, and politics, is analogous to everything else, that broiling, festering knot of opaque inconsistency and unfathomable immensity we call life.

Some of the heroes of baseball humanism are obvious: Jackie Robinson, Roberto Clemente, Curt Flood.  The powerful social implications of their careers are inestimable.  Likewise, there are antiheroes - Ty Cobb, Pete Rose, Jose Canseco - whose stories, though not to be emulated, are equally compelling.  One of the reasons we adore sport is that the lives of such athletes unfold in front of us as though they were the protagonists of a serialized fiction.  And we have great patience for every variation within the genre.  We are equally amused by the heroic ascensions of Horatio Alger (i.e. Hank Greenberg) and the absurdist tragedies of Franz Kafka (i.e. Milton Bradley).  Omniscience is limited, obviously, but not as much as proponents of privacy would expect.  Thus, we are guided along by an anonymous author whose incredible skill is his ability to write as eloquently as Michael Lewis and Buzz Bissinger, when the occasion demands, but also as amateurishly as Gene Wojciechowski and Mark Fainura-Wada, when his aims are satirical.  It's a dexterity not even John Dos Passos could equal.

One of the great joys of the postseason is joining narratives in media res.  For those players who advance deep into October, especially, a major episode is being written, one which, when we reflect on their "story," will likely help to guide our interpretation. (Clemente's story is soulful, regardless, but is made so much sweeter by his performance in the 1971 postseason.  Similar claims can be made for Bob Gibson, Reggie Jackson, Brooks Robinson, etc.)  In this season's postseason primer, I preview each team based not on their talent, but on their dramatic potential.  What narratological traits have guided them so far, what kind of stories could be yielded by a deep run in October.  Let's begin with a look at the narrative potential of the first team to officially punch their postseason ticket, the Minnesota Twins.

• Retribution Songs (Verse 1): In order to reach the World Series, the Twins will need to upset at least one and likely both of the AL East juggernauts.  New York upended Minnesota with relative ease in the ALDS a year ago, so that sting is relatively fresh for several Twinks, but the personal scars run deeper for Carl Pavano.  Pavano spent four years in the Bronx as part of the largest contract of his career ($40 Million).  During that time he managed to make only 26 starts and compiled a 5.00 ERA.  Through a combination of flukish injuries, off-the-field antics, and clubhouse scuffles, he became one of the most ridiculed figures in New York sports and a major scapegoat for the Yankees inability to get past the Division Series from '05-'08.  Last year, Pavano pitched an outstanding game (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K) against his former team in Minnesota, but the Yankees still won, finishing off their sweep.  This year, Pavano will likely get the chance to pitch in Yankee Stadium, in front of fans who unmercifully booed him for most of his tenure in New York.  Beating the Yankees is always sweet, but for Carl Pavano it would be even sweeter.
• Retribution Songs (Verse 2): If the Twins matchup with Tampa Bay in either the ALDS or the ALCS, their lead singer will be Delmon Young.  The Devil Rays made Young the #1 draft pick in 2003 and in 2007, at the age of 21, he played all 162 games and finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year balloting.  As reward, he was traded to the cold Northwest for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.  The following season, the team exorcized the "Devil" from their name and went to the World Series.  The underlying narrative was quite simple.  The entitled, bat-tossing Young had been the bad egg amongst a group of outstanding prospects, including Josh Hamilton, B. J. Upton, and Elijah Dukes.  For two seasons Young floundered for the Twins, struggling to even hold onto a starting role, while Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett were key players for the Rays.  This year, however, in the parlance of our times, the "script has been flipped."  Young was on the Final Vote ballot for the All-Star game.  He leads his team in doubles (42) and RBI (105), and he just turned 25 last week, while Bartlett is in danger of losing his starting position to Reid Brignac and Garza has posted the worst ERA of his career (4.01, not that bad).  If Young can help the Twins eliminate the Rays, it would be a cold, raw plate of revenge.  This is the window of opportunity for the Rays team as it is currently constructed, featuring many of Young's longtime compadres.  Next year, Tampa will lose many key players, slash their payroll, and begin the rebuilding process.  They'd like to do so on the back of their first championship.  Standing in their way is their former top prospect.
• Overcoming Adversity: If Justin Morneau cannot recover from his concussion in time for the playoffs, the Twins will take the field without two of their three highest-paid and most popular players.  Minnesota lost long-time closer, Joe Nathan, before the season even began and Morneau, who was an MVP candidate in the first half, hasn't played since the All-Star Break.  Nevertheless, the Twins are in the running for the best record in baseball, fueling Ron Gardenhire's candidacy for Manager of the Year.  
• Dome Sweet Dome?:  This is the Twins first year in a new waterfront stadium, Target Field, which is, by all reports I've gathered, a lovely place to see a ballgame.  Moreover, its opening inspired Twins management to raise their payroll by $30 Million and resign the face of the franchise, Joe Mauer.  Nevertheless, there is still a small but vocal minority who believe the Twins sacrificed a franchise icon and one of the keys to their prolonged success by leaving the florescent glare of the Metrodome, and they can back their arguments up with a pretty potent home-field advantage demonstrated over many seasons.  Bringing home the first Twins championship since 1991 would be the most effective way of putting a sock in the naysayers.  
• Sweet Ole' Jim:  The Twins DH, Jim Thome, is high on the list of greatest players who have never won a World Series.  He hasn't even been to a World Series since 1997, and, at 40, he's not got a lot of chances left.  By all accounts, Thome is an all-around nice guy and a superb teammate.  He's also put the team on his Paul Bunyan shoulders for much of the second-half, following Justin Morneau's concussion, so he's more than just a familiar face.  In terms of "win one for the gipper"-type sentimentality, Thome is pretty easy to get behind.  

As with just about any team, you can point to several other soulful players - Orlando Hudson, Francisco Liriano, J. J. Hardy, Matt Capps - who have something to prove in the bright lights of the postseason.  The likely pairing of the Twins with the Yankees makes them feel like a natural underdog.  However, we should point out that they will have the third highest payroll of any team in this year's playoffs (regardless of how it all plays out in the NL).  And, frankly, does MLB need anymore fuel for their "if you build it, they will come" mantra?  Especially since, by "they," MLB means "the affluent."  New York and St. Louis both won championships in the opening season at their gaudy new stadiums, each within the last five years.  It's kind of a tired premise.  Still, of all the teams battling for a playoff bid, only the Reds (1990) and Rangers (19-never) have gone longer without representing their league in the World Series.

Narrative Likability Factor: B+

An Idealistic All-Star Ballot (AL)

It's that time of year, when one could responsibly consider being an informed participant in the All-Star Voting.  Last year, we fans elected Josh Hamilton to start.  At the time, he was hitting .226 with 6 HR and had spent much of the previous three months on the D.L.  This is merely the most recent of many ridiculous selections.  From the much-publicized perspective that the All-Star game now "counts," because it determines home-field advantage for the World Series, the fact the game is still treated as an exhibition in terms of voting seems counter-intuitive.  One could, I suppose, rationalize voting for the worst players on  the AL ballot, if you favored team is from the NL.

We'll set the incongruities of the process aside for now, as I offer what I deem the most deserving candidates at each position, starting in the American League:

More Power to Mauer

The Twins, as many expected, managed to get Joe Mauer signed to a long-term deal in time for the opening of Target Field.  The eight-year, $184 Million contract is easily the largest ever signed by a catcher, and in terms of average annual value, only A-Rod has made more in a multi-year deal (Roger Clemens famously signed a one-year, $28 Million deal with the Yankees in 2007).

Odd as it may be to say this about a contract this size, Joe Mauer clearly gave the Twins a sizable hometown discount, as many speculated that he could get as much as $25 Million/year on the open market, perhaps for as many as ten years.  If the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets had handed him a ten-year, $250 Million deal in 2011, few would've been surprised.  Mauer clearly genuinely wanted to play for his hometown team throughout the prime of his career and that is certainly commendable.

The questions for the Twins are now twofold.  How much revenue will the new ballpark, combined with this good publicity, generate in 2010 and beyond?  And, can they keep Mauer healthy and productive into his mid-thirties?

The Twins are banking, literally, on a dramatic increase in revenues, as their payroll for this year is already almost $30 Million bigger than it was in 2009, and $23 Million larger than it's ever been in the history of the franchise.  Their primary thumpers, Mauer and Justin Morneau, are under contract until at least 2013 (after which Morneau's contract expires), and the Twins also locked up Scott Baker, Denard Span, and Nick Blackburn through their arbitration years.

The team will still be facing a lot of tough contract decisions in the coming offseasons.  Orlando Hudson, Carl Pavano, Jim Thome, and Jon Rauch each have one-year deals.  Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Nick Punto all have contracts which include sizable options for 2011.  Those could be tough decisions, depending upon how they produce in 2010.  Joe Nathan has a $12.5 Million option for 2012, which is among the several reasons he needed to get Tommy John surgery out of the way now.  Minnesota appears to have no long-term plan at second or third base, so they may need to solidify their infield via the free agent market if they hope to remain competitive.

Unfortunately, the history of mid-market teams and $100 Million contracts does not include a lot of success stories.  A-Rod's first massive contract, signed with the Rangers, pushed their payroll into the stratosphere, but actually cost the team competitively.  In the three year prior to A-Rod's arrival, the Rangers averaged 87 wins a season, in the three years A-Rod was in Texas they averaged 72 wins a season, despite that face that in '02 and '03 the Rangers payroll was almost twice as high as any time before or since.

The Rockies experimented with the hundred-million dollar man via Todd Helton and Mike Hampton.  They have been quite successful in the waning years of the Helton deal, partially because Todd took a significant chunk of deferred money, but it shouldn't go unnoticed that worst years in franchise's history came when the Rockies had some $35 Million/year committed to Helton, Hampton, Denny Neagle, and Larry Walker.  The Hampton deal was an unmitigated disaster, as the Rockies ended up paying $49 Million for 21 wins and a 5.75 ERA before the Braves mercifully took him off their hands.

Toronto's $126 Million deal with Vernon Wells, who I've rated the greatest albatross of all time, may have kept them from retaining Roy Halladay and very well may keep them from having any shot at contention before 2015.  Ken Griffey Jr. ($108 Million) never had a winning season with the Reds.  Carlos Lee ($100 Million) has ushered in the worst era in Astros baseball since the mid-nineties.  The Tigers signed Miguel Cabrera ($152 Million) immediately following their participation in the '06 World Series.  They haven't been back to the playoffs since.

Nine contracts of $100 Million or more have been signed by teams outside of New York, Chicago, and Boston.  Of those nine, only Helton and Albert Pujols have participated in a postseason game with the franchise that made them mega-rich.  Clearly, the Twins have reason to believe Mauer could be more like Pujols than the other eight.  He has done unprecedented things in his first five seasons.  He has also missed a substantial amount of time due to back and knee issues.

There's no true precedent for Joe Mauer, as his batting titles suggest, however, when we look at Hall of Fame catchers, there is a clear trend towards falling production in the mid-thirties. Johnny Bench's best years came in his mid-twenties, after which he declined steadily, with his last truly good season coming at age 32.  The same can be said of Gary Carter.  Mike Piazza was a steady producer from 1993 to 2002, they dropped off dramatically from age 34 forward and was out of baseball entirely four years later.  Pudge Rodriguez peaked at age 27, when he won his MVP, but he didn't become an offensive liability until he was 33.  Yogi Berra faded slowly through his early thirties, but was still a productive hitter when he was 36.  The outlier is Carlton Fisk, who was a steady producer throughout his thirties and even into his forties.    

The Twins clearly took these cases into account when they elected to go for an eight year deal for more money per season, rather than a ten year deal around $200 Million, as many had speculated. Minnesota must assume that they will pay for a year or two of Mauer's decline at the end of the contract, but Mauer should still be a useful player at 34, even if he's no longer the best in the league.  The good news is, unless he is riddled by injuries, the contract should be ended before he becomes a league-average player, so the Twins will have the opportunity to negotiate a more reasonable rate in his final seasons, as the Rockies did with Helton recently.  

Fantastic Thoughts: Breeding Backstops

One of the much-publicized trends in contemporary baseball is the growing tendency of organizations towards grooming starting pitchers from within.  Teams like San Francisco, Colorado, Minnesota, and Toronto have dedicated themselves to building rotations out of pitchers who've never worked for another franchise.  Less observed, however, it the parallel trend: the homegrown starting catcher.

The poster-boy for this trend is Joe Mauer, who was born and bred in Minnesota, has won three batting titles for the Twins, and is now looking to spend the next decade or more as their field general.  Many pitcher's on the Twins staff have been throwing to Mauer regularly since they were in the minor leagues, and will continue to throw to him, tens of thousands of pitches, for as long as they remain with the organization.

Mauer is the best, but he's hardly the only.  Brian McCann has spent his whole career thusfar in Atlanta.  Yadier Molina has never worked for anybody but Tony LaRussa.  Russell Martin is the heart and soul of the Dodgers.  And, of course, there's Jorge Posada, who's spent a dozen seasons behind the plate in the Bronx.

All told, nearly two thirds of major-league organizations will open the 2010 season with a catcher they drafted, developed, and brought to the big leagues.  Compare that to other positions in the free agent era and you'll see it's a remarkably high percentage.  And, it's not likely to go down anytime soon.  Some of the most highly regarded prospects in the game are catchers.  Matt Wieters reached the bigs midway through 2009 and looks to be the O's backstop for most of the twenty-teens.  This season he's likely to be followed by Buster Posey in San Francisco, Carlos Santana in Cleveland, and Jason Castro in Houston, each of whom is widely considered their organization's #1 prospect.  Not far behind them are Max Ramirez (Rangers), Jesus Montero (Yankees), Angel Salome (Brewers), and Tyler Flowers (White Sox).

The rationale is quite straightforward.  The catcher has more leadership responsibilities than any player on the diamond.  He needs to have a intimate relationship with his pitching staff and, to a slightly lesser extent, his infielders.  His competency is greatly assisted by having a long track record with most of his teammates, in a way that a slugging first-baseman's isn't.

How is this relevant in fantasy baseball?  Well, the best way to groom a catcher who you anticipate counting on for years to come is to give him big-league experience, preferably in slightly lower intensity scenarios.  As such, many of these rookie backstops may break camp as backups or even get sent to AAA, but as their teams drop out of contention, more and more will become regulars.  In deeper leagues which require two catchers or in keeper leagues, all of the players mentioned above are relevant even on Draft Day, and those who don't get drafted should be watched closely, because your league could come down to whether you get your August production from Jason Castro or Jason Kendall.

 

Offseason Prospectus #8: The Minnesota Twins

I didn't watch many Twins games until late in the season, but in September and October I discovered that Minnesota had fielded a very compelling, likable team, albeit one that was obviously flawed. That the Twinkies were able to make it as far as they did, despite carrying one of baseball's worst rotations and several automatic outs at the back-end of their lineup, is a testament to Ron Gardenhire's leadership and also to the superior quality of the Twins bullpen and the top half of their lineup. It became clear, especially in the ALDS, that if you looked at only the best half dozen or so players on each team, the Twins were as good as the Yankees, or any other team in league for that matter. It was their lack of depth which proved to be their undoing. Minnesota's front office will be looking to improve at several positions before they open Target Field in 2010, but the Twins, never exactly a free-spending franchise, may be even more cash-strapped this winter as they protect the reserves necessary to sign Joe Mauer to the nine-figure deal which seems an inevitability.

During the last seven seasons the Twins have consistently maintained a payroll between $55 and $65 Million. Mauer's next contract will almost certainly earn him nearly $20 Million a season, as much as a third of Minnesota's limited resources. Add to that the $14 Million a year that Justin Morneau will be making through the 2013 season and it's utterly apparent that unless Minnesota commits to a considerable budget increase, they are going to have no financial flexibility. The signing of Mauer completely eliminates any possibility of retaining guys like Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan, and J. J. Hardy, all of whom will be eligible for free agency in the next two years, and it precludes Minnesota's ability to compete for the top tiers of free agents for the next four or five seasons at least. Can Minnesota bring home division titles, much less championships, when two players eat up 60% of the payroll?

On the other hand, letting Mauer walk is publicity suicide. He is the definition of a franchise player, a guy who not only dominates on the field, but has cultivated a personal connection with the community. Albert Pujols is probably the only analogous baseball player in today's game. In all honesty, probably the best place to look for a situation which resembles Mauer's is Cleveland, where the impending free agency of Lebron James is also haunting a city. Players like these are worth almost any amount of money. You not only build teams around them, but stadiums and brands, the material benefits of which will last even beyond the player's career. Ask the Chicago Bulls, or the Baltimore Orioles.

Free Agents:

Orlando Cabrera (35) SS

Joe Crede (32) 3B

Ron Mahay (39) RHRP

Carl Pavano (34) RHSP

Mike Redmond (39) C

Arbitration Eligible:

Boof Bonser (28) RHSP

Jesse Crain (28) RHRP

Matt Guerrier (31) RHRP

J. J. Hardy (27) SS

Brendan Harris (29) SS/3B

Francisco Liriano (26) LHRP

Pat Neshek (29) RHRP

Delmon Young (24) LF

ETA 2010?:

Justin Huber (27) 1B/DH

Jeff Manship (25) RHSP

Jason Pridie (26) CF

Anthony Swarzak (24) RHSP

The Twins ability to duplicate their 2009 success will be predicated primarily upon the health and effectiveness of their starting rotation. Three of Minnesota's best young pitchers - Kevin Slowey, Boof Bonser, and Pat Neshek - missed all or most of 2009 with injuries. Two others, Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins, struggled to regain the command and control they had displayed in previous seasons. If you had told Ron Gardenhire in April that Brian Duensing would be a key member of his September rotation, he probably would've assumed the Twins had long since lost any hope of contention. If at least a couple of their young guns can rebound, taking the pressure off Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, than the Twins will have a formidable rotation. Also, prospects Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship have both showed enough promise to offer Twins fans some solace in the event of another rash of injuries.

In addition to Mauer, who doesn't actually qualify for free agency until next year, the Twins have three major contractual decisions this winter. The most pressing is clearly Orlando Cabrera. OC was the sparkplug during the stretch run last fall, after being acquired from the A's, and provided some postseason heroics to boot. Gardenhire publicly applauded his veteran presence. The acquistion of J. J. Hardy, however, leaves Cabrera without a position. The Twins have suggested they would be willing to negotiate with him if he would consider moving to second base, but the former Gold Glove winner has understandable reservations. Cabrera and his agent gained considerable leverage this week when the Twins decided not to offer him arbitration, which means negotiations with other teams will not be hampered by his A designation and dramatically reduces the chances of his resigning with Minnesota.

The Twins may pursue alternatives like Orlando Hudson or Placido Polanco, but more likely will choose to either role the dice again on Alexi Casilla, who had a tough year in '09 but is still very young, or hand the position to the defensively spectacular, but offensively-challenged Nick Punto.

One could argue that Minnesota's needs at third base are even more pressing. In 2009, the Twins got next to nothing from the hot corner. Joe Crede's back kept him out of the lineup most of the year and hampered him when he was in it. His replacements - Punto, Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher, and Brendan Harris - were considerably worse, none of them achieving an OPS above 675 (league average = 763). There are an abundance of affordable third basemen available. The Twins could gamble on a power bat coming off an injury, like Crede, Aubrey Huff, or Troy Glaus. They could go a more defensively-minded direction with Pedro Feliz. Or for a little more money they could woo a more well-rounded veteran like Adrian Beltre or Miguel Tejada. My guess is that they'll go cheap and risky.

The final and probably least critical decision for Twins management is whether or not to retain Carl Pavano. Pavano made a dozen starts for the Twinks after arriving via a trade with the Indians last summer. He was hardly dominant (4.64 ERA), but he looked like a prototypical innings-eater, going six or more in ten of his twelve starts. On a staff that has tons of talent, but no pitcher older than 28, Pavano could be an inexpensive stabilizing presence.

Recent history has been pretty good to teams opening new ballparks. In 2006 the Cardinal christened the new Busch Stadium with a championship and last year the Yankees did the same in inauguration of their latest launching pad. Twins fans must hope that Target Field resembles these precedents rather than those of Citi Field (2009) and Nationals Park (2008).

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Denard Span (L)

SS J. J. Hardy (R)

C Joe Mauer (L)

1B Justin Morneau (L)

RF Michael Cuddyer (R)

DH Jason Kubel (L)

3B Troy Glaus (R) FA

LF Delmon Young (R)

2B Nick Punto (S)

SP Scott Baker (R)

SP Kevin Slowey (R)

SP Carl Pavano (R)

SP Nick Blackburn (R)

SP Francisco Liriano (L)

CL Joe Nathan (R)

SU Jon Rauch (R)

SU Matt Guerrier (R)

LOOGY Jose Mijares (L)

MR Pat Neshek (R)

MR Jesse Crain (R)

SWING Brian Duensing (L)

C Jose Morales (S)

IF Brendan Harris (R)

IF Matt Tolbert (S)

OF Jason Pridie (L)

Some Unlikely MVPs

Cliff Lee has all but cinched the AL Cy Young, while the trio of Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum, and C. C. Sabathia provides plenty of excellent options for NL voters.  Geovany Soto is clearly the NL's top rookie, with all respect to Joey Votto and Jair Jurrjens.  In the AL, Evan Longoria's late-season injury may have opened up a opportunity for Armando Galarraga and Alexei Ramirez.  The biggest questions remain, however, in the races for Most Valuable player in both leagues.  This year provides us with no Alex Rodriguez or Barry Bonds type performances, head and shoulders above the competition.  Ryan Howard leads the NL in two critical categories, HR and RBI, but is batting a mere .237 and is headed for upwards of 200 strikeouts.  Josh Hamilton's march toward the RBI crown has slowed slightly in the second half and, of course, he is playing on a team which was out of contention early in August.  Carlos Quentin carried the White Sox offense at various times throughout the season, but an unfortunate, fluky hand injury has left him sitting on 36 HR and 100 RBI, numbers which will merely seem reminders of what could have been. 

The scarcity of traditional choices has allowed Dustin Pedroia to emerge as a fashionable favorite in early September.  He has been very valuable to a Red Sox team which has suffered extended injuries to David Ortiz, Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and J. D. Drew, as well as that whole Manny Ramirez ordeal.  Pedroia is leading the AL in runs scored (111), hits (193), and batting average (.330) and has very admirable numbers across the board, but though he has batted cleanup recently, he isn't particularly strong in the traditional MVP categories, HR (17) and RBI (74).  His run production numbers would be the lowest for an MVP since Ichiro won the award in 2001.  Besides Pedroia, whose popularity as a candidate is largely due to the ubiquity of the Red Sox, their are some other darkhorses worth considering this November.

C. C. Sabathia - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

I, personally, believe Sabathia should be given the NL Cy Young.  Although Webb and Lincecum have had fine seasons, Sabathia has dominated the league since his arrival in early July to a degree we've not seen since Randy Johnson was at the top of his game in the late nineties and early aughts.  He is 9-0 since joining the Brew Crew, the rest of the staff is 23-21.  C. C. also leads NL pitchers in innings, strikeouts, ERA, quality starts, and, of course, complete games since July 8, his first start.  If the voters demure from giving C. C. his second consecutive Cy, due to his late arrival, they might consider adding him the somewhat weaker MVP field.  A pitcher has not won the MVP since Dennis Eckersley did it in 1992 and, in the NL, the fete has not been accomplished until 1968.  But by all accounts, C. C. immediately became a clubhouse leader in Milwaukee and, of course, one cannot argue with the team's performance on the days he pitches.  They are 11-1 in his starts.  Few candidates have the advantage of such a stark assertion of "value."

Grady Sizemore - CF - Cleveland Indians

The Indians, despite a second-half resurgence, are not likely to finish within ten games of the postseason.  However, their leadoff hitter is leading the AL in Runs Created and his stats are certainly comparable, even superior, to those of Dustin Pedroia, as he will probably get close to 100 runs and 100 RBI, as well as around 35 HR and 40 SB.  Sizemore and Hanley Ramirez are the only 30/30 players in 2008, but more importantly, he is among the most intimidating hitters in the league and also plays gold-glove caliber defense at a critical position.  Working against Sizemore is not only his team (which is going to be a winning franchise after all), but also his .268 batting average.

Joe Mauer - C - Minnesota Twins

Speaking of defensive contributions...Mr. Mauer has made only two errors in upwards of 1000 innings this season, has the best CS% in the AL, and captains the young Minnesota staff which has surprisingly kept the Twins in competition deep into the season.  Oh, and he is also hitting .326 with a .416 OBP.  Much like 2006, Justin Morneau has Mauer to thank for keeping his name in the MVP conversation.

Kevin Youkilis - 1B - Boston Red Sox

Why are BoSox fans getting behind Pedroia, but not Youk?  Youkilis is better in HR (25), RBI (98), OPS (949), OBP, and SLG.  Moreover, he plays wizard defense at two positions.  He took a few days off early in September to nurse a minor injury, but like Pedroia, he has been one of the few Red Sox available every day and, unlike Pedroia, he's available to play corner spot on both the infield and in the outfield.  He doesn't exactly have Dustin's rugged good looks, but Youkilis has just as much to do with Boston's ability stay in the race.

Arguments could also be made based on Mark DeRosa's versatility, Aramis Ramirez' clutch hitting, Carlos Delgado's resurgence, and Ryan Ludwick's ascendence.  All this aside, however, I'll tell you who I would vote for if they gave me a ballot: Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton.