21st-Century Cy

Not every year does a relatively unheralded pitcher come, as though from out of nowhere, to win his profession's most prestigious award.  It has happened, however, in each of the last two seasons, and seven times in the last decade (during which, of course, twenty Cy Youngs have been awarded.)

Way back in 2002, a 24-year-old Barry Zito won 23 games in what has proved to be the best season of his career.  The season prior to it he had been very good (17-8, 3.49 ERA), but certainly not superlative, and going into '02 he was still considered the #3 starter on his own team.

In 2004, Johan Santana "arrived."  Although his arm had been gaining him notoriety for a couple years, he had spent most of his career prior to '04 in the bullpen.  That year, however, he made 34 starts, won 20 of them, and led the league in strikeouts (265) and ERA (2.61).

The very next year, a 30-year-old Chris Carpenter, after seven seasons floundering with the Blue Jays and struggling with injuries and control, suddenly became one of the best pitchers in baseball, going 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA in his second year under the tutelage of Dave Duncan in St. Louis.

There was another first-time Cy Young vote-getter in 2006, when Brandon Webb won the award with his 16 wins and 3.10 ERA.

And, most recently, as you will remember, Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke finished their somewhat unlikely ascents to the top of the American League, and Tim Lincecum won the NL version of the award in his first full season in the majors in '08.

So, who's going to be the next unexpected Cy?  Here are some criteria for making the prediction.  With the exception of Cliff Lee, none of the pitchers discussed above had placed in the Cy Young voting prior to the year they won it, but all were coming off pretty solid seasons, in which they won at least 12 games and had an ERA lower than 3.80 (Lincecum didn't get enough starts to meet this criteria in his rookie year, but in all likelihood he would've easily matched it).

Although Lee had a notoriously bad run in '06 and '07, he had previously logged three seasons with 14 or more wins and finished as high as fourth in Cy Young voting in 2005.  So, what I'm looking for primarily, is a player who won 12-15 games in '09 and posted an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 with some positive trends in his other numbers.

I'm also looking for somebody in their mid-twenties who was, at one point or another, even if it was five or six years ago, considered a top prospect.  Four of my seven Cys were first-round picks and Santana certainly would have been (he signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela).  Five won the award for the first time between the ages of 24 and 27, while Lee won it at 29 and Carpenter was 30.  With those factors in mind, here are the top candidates: