Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Ten)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to the next post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

Hippeaux's Mailbag

I finally posted a functional email address earlier this month (sorry about that).  Since then, there has been a trickle of questions, mostly fantasy related.  Here are some answers which I thought might be relevant for others:


"So, Hippeaux, do you still hate the Bradley/Silva trade?" - Eric


I definitely deserve this.  I reemed Jim Hendry for making this deal and ridiculed it again and again over the course of the offseason.  Silva didn't show the slightest sign of weakness until his last start.  He's been among the Cubs best starting pitchers so far (2-0, 2.90 ERA).  Meanwhile, Bradley has continued a descent into irrelevancy by beginning the year with a 684 OPS and then exiling himself from the team to deal with psychological issues.  So, yes, Hendry is probably feeling pretty satisfied with himself right now.  Silva's been a contributer.  Marlon Byrd has been outstanding (956 OPS).  Alfonso Soriano is hotter than he's been since the middle of 2008.  Even the Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen move has worked out pretty well so far (1.80 ERA in four appearances).  If the Cubs make the postseason, even if they stay in the hunt until August, I promise to write Jim Hendry an extended apology.  If they don't, expect more venom.


"I paid thirty-some dollars for Greinke in a mixed 5X5 league.  After a month, he's got zero wins.  Should I try to trade him?  I need pitching.  What can I expect to get?" - Steve

I ranked Zack Greinke outside of my top tier of pitchers this February for two reasons: 1.) It would be almost impossible to duplicate the season he had in 2009, so some regression was inevitable, and 2.) He still plays for the Royals, who still stink, perhaps even more than they did last year.  As a result, I don't own Greinke in any leagues.  That said, I certainly don't think Greinke's '09 was a fluke.  Even if he has several more rough outings than he did last year, he'll easily be a legitimate fantasy Ace.

After six starting in '09, these were Greinke's 5X5 numbers: 6-0, 0.40 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 54 K, 45 IP.
This season, at the same juncture, they look like this: 0-3, 2.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 33 K, 40 IP.

His strikeout rate is down a little bit, but mainly, he's just been unlucky.  Only one team, the Red Sox, has gotten to him for more than two earned runs.  Three times he's left the game with a lead and wound up with a no decision.

Sure, it's quite possible that Greinke will suffer a season of disappointments, ala Matt Cain in '07 and '08, but even if that happens, he contributions to your rate stats will make him a worthy #2 starter.  And, if you trade him now, you risk "selling low" and missing out on the stretch where he wins six in a row or eight out of ten.  At this point, I actually covet Greinke a little more than I did in the preseason.  These are the only pitchers who I would trade him for straight-up: Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, C. C. Sabathia, Ubaldo Jimenez, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, and Jon Lester.

"I know you've seen the PECOTA projections already.  In the ESPN magazine Baseball Think Factory says that the Angels have only a 2.5% chance of winning the AL West.  How can that be?" - Tim

I received this message before the season began, so I'll begin with the response the sent Tim at that time:

"I'm continually surprised by how poorly the 2010 Angels are performing in preseason simulations, which consistently have them finishing behind the Rangers, Mariners, and even the Athletics.  I've said repeatedly that I think the rumors of the Angels demise have been greatly exaggerated.  I don't expect they will win the division by ten games, as they did in '09, but I think they'll be at least an 85 win team and as safe a bet as anybody to win the AL West.  My only explanation for the Angels poor performance in simulations is that they had several players who had career years in '09: Jered Weaver, Kendry Morales, Erick Aybar, Juan Rivera, etc.  Even Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu had among their best seasons.  More often than not, regression is to be expected.  I certainly think the younger players are capable of continuing to build on what they did in '09, but it is true that at some point guys like Abreu and Matsui will hit the wall.  Will it be this year?  I don't know."

It's still very early, but the Halos performance so far suggests the boys at Baseball Think Factory and Baseball Prospectus get paid the "big bucks" for a reason.  The Angels are 12-17 and, more significantly, their -43 run differential is better than only Pittsburgh, Houston, and Baltimore (and not by that much).  Still, it's a relatively small sample and they are only three games back, so one good week could be enough to get me right back on the Angels bandwagon.

I've watched Los Angeles quite a bit and I'll admit they've got some serious holes.  The Brandon Wood experiment has been a complete bust and, unless something dramatic happens, I think will be put to rest before the end of May.  Erick Aybar has not adapted to hitting leadoff and the Angels don't have anybody else who appears better suited to that role. 

The starting pitching, which I expected to be the Angels strength, despite the departure of John Lackey, has been the team's most serious issue (5.00 ERA, 12th in A.L.).  The hired guns, Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro, have each shown improvement in recent starts after tough Aprils.  I expect both will be at least serviceable behind the clear Ace, Jered Weaver.  But Joe Saunders has been especially abysmal (1-5, 7.04 ERA).  The Angels top prospect, Trevor Bell, continues to dominate at AAA, so don't be surprised if Saunders loses his spot.

Mike Scioscia has never been afraid of shaking things up.  Don't be surprised if Saunders, Wood, and Brian Fuentes soon find the end of their leashes.  The Angels depth of options, combined with the fact that no team in the AL West appears ready to run away from the rest, are cause for continued optimism.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week One)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the players in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the owners fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.  


This week I'd like to make a couple additional points about streaming and particularly about teams which you draft with the intention of streaming from the start of the season.

The idea of streaming is to guarantee yourself two categories every week.  You still need to find a way to wrap up four more.  Obviously, the customary approach is to load up on hitting early and try to accumulate a strong corp of relievers later.  You can see the results of my "Stream Team" draft below.  I didn't take a pitcher until round nine.  I didn't take a starting pitcher until round twelve.

Fantastic Thoughts: "Mark Buehrle may not be much to look at, but he's got a great personality." (Starting Pitcher Preview)

Rather than ranking hundreds of pitchers in a fashion which can be frustrating to manage during your draft or auction, I suggest grouping pitchers according to types.  This can be done in a number of ways, not necessarily exclusively those that I've outlined below, but I like to aim for getting at least one pitcher from each of my tiers (with the exception of #7, where I've put a number of guys who I will be flat-out ignoring).  You can still take a second or third guy from any one of the categories, if it fits your strategy or they are being undervalued, but this method will protect you somewhat from ending up with too many injury risks, too many unproven youngsters, too many low-strikeout veterans, or overspending on pitching in the early rounds.  It's not a perfect system, but I can boast that in the keeper league I invented it for I have now led the league in pitching staff scoring for three consecutive seasons, even though I only spend about 25% of my money on pitching.

Also, keep in mind, that although pitchers who I've grouped together share some particular trait, their potential and their risk can vary dramatically from #1 to #20, which also roughly suggests where they'll be available in the draft.  Say, for instance, that the first two pitchers I select are Matt Cain (#11) and Carlos Zambrano (#9), I will probably try to get a top five guy from the "upside" group and at least a top ten guy from the "rubber arms" group.  However, if I already have Roy Halladay (#1) and Yovani Gallardo (#6), I'll probably wait until deeper in the draft to spring for guys like Derek Lowe (#15), Manny Parra (#17), and Gavin Floyd (#11).  You probably don't want to just lift my tiers verbatim, but rather design your own to fit the particular scoring rules and roster requirements of your league.


#1: Bonafide Aces

1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
2. Tim Lincecum (Giants)
3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)
4. Johan Santana (Mets)
5. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
6. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
7. Cliff Lee (Mariners)
8. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)
9. Dan Haren (D-Backs)
10. Jon Lester (Red Sox)
11. Matt Cain (Giants)
12. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

If you are going to draft a pitcher in the first five rounds of a standard (10-team) league, make it be one of these fellows.  Now, I'm not saying you need a pitcher that early in the draft.  There are plenty of workable strategies that don't require a bonafide Ace, but if you go that route, go with these proven commodities.  Every one of these players has had multiple seasons of excellence and remains in the prime of his career.

You can bicker with my rankings, especially at the top.  I chose Halladay over Lincecum mainly because he'll get a lot more run support, and therefore have a better chance at accumulating wins, but there's a strong chance Lincecum leads him in strikeouts by a sizable margin.  If there is any uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana's health by the middle of Spring Training, he falls out of this class.  Same goes for Carpenter and Lee.  Again, if you're drafting a pitcher early, you need somebody who is at least seemingly without risk.

#2: Aces?

1. Zack Greinke (Royals)
2. Brandon Webb (D-Backs)
3. Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
4. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
5. Josh Johnson (Marlins)
6. Yovani Gallardo (Brewers)
7. Javier Vazquez (Braves)
8. Matt Garza (Rays)
9. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
10. Ricky Nolasco (Marlins)
11. Cole Hamels (Phillies)
12. Scott Kazmir (Angels)
13. Jake Peavy (White Sox)

I'm perfectly content with one of these hurlers as a #1 pitcher.  All have proven their ability to pitch like an Ace.  Just don't reach for them too early, because either youth (Jimenez), health (Johnson), or an inexplicable disposition (Zambrano) have prevented them from doing it consistently.

It will be tempting to overreach for Greinke after his Cy Young season.  Sure, I think he has permanently "arrived," but the 2009 numbers are difficult to duplicate, especially as he continues to pitch for the worst team in baseball.  There is no doubt that the prolonged frustration and perfectionism which results from pitching in front of a bad defense that never scores you any runs can have an effect on the psyche and eventually the stats of even great pitchers.  We saw it with Cliff Lee in the first half of '09 and with Matt Cain in '08.

#3: Rubber Arms

1. A. J. Burnett (Yankees)
2. John Lackey (Red Sox)
3. James Shields (Rays)
4. Jered Weaver (Angels)
5. Roy Oswalt (Astros)
6. Wandy Rodriguez (Astros)
7. Edwin Jackson (D-Backs)
8. Bronson Arroyo (Reds)
9. Ted Lilly (Cubs)
10. Mark Buehrle (White Sox)
11. Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
12. Scott Baker (Twins)
13. Joe Saunders (Angels)
14. John Danks (White Sox)
15. Derek Lowe (Braves)
16. Kevin Millwood (Orioles)
17. Joe Blanton (Phillies)
18. Andy Pettitte (Yankees)

Guys from this tier are notoriously underrated.  In fact, you'll likely end up selecting one of your high-upside #4 or #5 guys prior to somebody from the bottom half of this list.  But, by the end of the season, these guys will have quietly accumulated the stats to justify at least #3 status and, as such, will have a very special place in your heart.  The most underrated statistic in fantasy baseball is 30+ games started.

I could confidently sell you on any one of these guys, but this season I'll honor Joe Saunders, who, in 2009, posted his second consecutive season of 31 starts, 185+ innings, and 16+ wins.  His ERA rose above where you'd like it (4.60), mainly due to a rough midsummer stretch, but he finished strong, going 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his final eight starts.  He doesn't turn 29 until June and he pitches in the midst of a fairly deep rotation on a team that was second in the league in scoring in 2009.  It's a fine situation.    

Bold Predictions: Buy Low, Sell High

It's the sixth week of the season, we're nearing a quarter of the way through the season, and it's time to start seriously evaluating your fantasy team.  As David Ortiz and C. C. Sabathia have proves, it's tough for a good player to stayed mired in a slump for this long.  However, as Robinson Cano and Barry Zito have proved, it is possible.  Here are the players I would try to snag from frustrated owners before they catch fire, as well as the once-anonymous hot-starters who I would unload before the stroke of midnight, when they turn into Chris Shelton.

Jason Bay - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates

There has been a lot of talk about Pittsburgh outfielders this season, but most of it has concerned Xavier Nady (.350, 32 RBI) and Nate McLouth (.331, 9 HR, 28 RBI).  What has gone unnoticed, understandably, is the resurgent performance of Jason Bay, whose OPS dropped over 150 points in 2007, as he struggled with a variety of lingering injuries.  Bay has 6 HR and 11 RBI to go with his modest .261 average, but more importantly he has shown speed (3/3 SB) and plate discipline (25 BB/26 K, .397 OBP).  Bay is only 29, but he is nearing free agency and the Pirates have McLouth, Nady, Nyjer Morgan, Steven Pearce, and Andrew McCutcheon all ready for major-league playing time.  Once he has proven himself healthy, Bay has more market value than Nady because of his longer track record, defensive ability, and legitimate 35 HR power.  Look for the Pirates to deal him to a pitching-rich contender in need of a productive corner outfielder (i.e. Cleveland, Atlanta, San Diego).  If Bay joins a big-time offense, his run-production numbers could sky-rocket.

A. J. Burnett - SP - Toronto Blue Jays

Burnett has not been able to immediately build off of his strong second-half in 2007 (5-2, 3.01 ERA), but he hasn't missed a start and his command and the life on his fastball has improved with each start.  After walking nearly as many as he struck out in his first six starts, he's K'd 10 and walked only one in 6 innings this evening (though still giving up five earned runs).  If Burnett's healthy, he will be dominant over the course of the season, just as he was when he came off the DL last y

ear.  Some owners might be frustrated with his inconsistency so far.  Pick him up for cheap and you'll be on board for the hot streak later this summer.

Robinson Cano - 2B - New York Yankees

Don't forget that last year, Cano had a 741 OPS in the first half and a 953 OPS in the second half.  Granted, right now Cano's OPS is 467.  Only Troy Tulowitzki is lower among qualifying hitters.  But, I expect that only means that Cano's summer surge will be even more dramatic.  In case you haven't noticed, the Yankees always start slow, Torre or no Torre, and they aren't as far behind Boston now (17-16, 3.5 GB) as they were last year at this time (16-17, 7 GB).  Cano has already raised his OPS 43 points in the last seven games with a pair of homers.  It is likely a sign that his bat is thawing out.

Rich Hill - SP - Chicago Cubs

This is an especially interesting situation for keeper leagues.  Rich Hill is a 28-year-old left-handed starter who was 5th in NL in strikeouts last season, with a nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio.  He began this season by walking 18 hitters in 20 innings, leading to a demotion.  Owners should note, however, that Hill did not lose a game and managed a league-average ERA even with all the control problems.  The Cubs have gotten strong early-season performances from Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster, but even if they maintain their pace, it is likely that the franchise is losing patience with Jason Marquis (1-2, 5.08 ERA).  I expect that when Hill recovers his control, there will be a rotation spot made for him.  However, even if it doesn't happen this season, take note of what has happened this year with Ervin Santana (6-0, 2.02) and Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.96), both high-potential young arms who suffered similar setbacks last season.  If you've got room on your roster, Hill is somebody you want to stash away.

Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks

I won't belabor the point, since I foreshadowed his decline in a post a couple of weeks back, but I want to point out that Reynolds, after hitting .304 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in his first 19 games, is hitting .133 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and 23 Ks(!) in his last 11.  Chad Tracy has begun a rehab assignment, so soon the D-Backs will have a better replacement option than Augie Ojeda or Chris Burke.

Joe Saunders - SP - Los Angeles Angels

It's never a bad idea to have Angels pitchers.  Saunders and Ervin Santana, both of whom had to fight for rotation spots this spring, have the best start (12-0) of any duo in the last decade.  Saunders will probably be a valuable back-end guy throughout the season, but Santana is the guy you want to own from this pair.  

Santana: 6-0, 49 IP, 38 K, 9 BB, 2.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

Saunders: 6-0, 48 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

While Santana has made seven quality starts (in other words, all of them), Saunders has only four.  He has benefitted from a lot of offensive support.  John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will eventually rejoin this rotation (along with Santana and Jon Garland), so Saunders spot, despite his stellar showing so far, is not totally safe.