Fantastic Thoughts: "Bengie Molina ate one of my keepers." (Catcher Preview)

A couple weeks ago, it looked all but certain that the eldest Molina was headed to New York, but Brian Sabean swooped in at the last minute and saved Omar Minaya from further embarrassment.  Giants fans can look at the move with ambivalence.  Molina, despite his pathetic on-base percentages, is a decent contact hitter with good power (for a catcher), who is a dependable defensive presence and is familiar with the pitching staff.  When your success is deeply tied to the starting rotation, as San Francisco's so clearly is, it's hard to hand the catcher position to a rookie, no matter how promising he is.

From a fantasy perspective, this is bad, bad news.  Molina is a known commodity who doesn't excite anybody, because his decent power totals (20 HR, 80 RBI in '09) are offset by mediocre performances elsewhere (52 R, .265 AVG).  Molina is the kind of catcher you get stuck with late in a draft or auction because you unwisely spent your funds elsewhere.  Buster Posey, on the other hand, when he was slated as the Giants primary backstop, was the kind of high-upside rookie that fantasy owners get all tweeked about, especially in keeper leagues.  Splitting time between two minor-league levels last season, Posey hit .325 with 18 HR, 84 R, 80 RBI, 6 SB, and a 947 OPS in just 115 games.  Obviously, there will be a learning curve for the 23-year-old at the major-league level, but given 450+ at-bats, I'd be willing to bet that Posey could outhit Molina, even as a rookie.  Unfortunately, it looks like we'll never know.

The catcher position is, as usual, painfully thin.  There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop.

In leagues that require you to carry two active catchers, the strategy is much different.  In such leagues, the Molinas, Pierzynskis, and Ramon Hernandez's of the world are pure gold, merely because they are holding down regular ABs.  Only sixteen catchers got 400 plate appearances in 2009.  Only nine got as many as 500.  In a twelve-team league, that means more that half the owners were starting part-time players, perhaps juggling a couple of them, trying to guess which day Mike Scioscia would go with Jeff Mathis, or which day Jim Tracy would rest Yorvit Torrealba.  Needless to say, this can be a frustrating experience.  When Miguel Olivo goes yard on the Sunday afternoon you chose to start Jason Varitek, who ended up getting the night off, it's like leaving your windows down during a rainstorm the night after you paid full price for a car wash.  You're double fucked.

1. Joe Mauer (Twins)
2. Victor Martinez (Red Sox)
3. Brian McCann (Braves)
4. Russell Martin (Dodgers)

These are, obviously, the cream of the crop, and with the exception of Martin, you'll have to pay through the nose to get them, even though they probably won't register as many ABs as a starting first-baseman or outfielder.  Moreover, each of the big three have had injury issues at some point during the last two seasons, which makes that second or third round pick even more unsettling.

Martin was horrible in 2009 and many will, justifiably, knock him down into the second or third tier, but I'm choosing instead to focus on how consistently good he was in his two previous seasons, during which he averaged 87 R, 16 HR, 78 RBI, and 20 SB, with a .286 AVG.  Those totals, especially the steals, are exceedingly rare out of the catcher position, so I'll happily have another go-round with Trane this spring, rather than settle for somebody who's yet to prove they can get anywhere near such numbers.

The Red Sox Special @ V-Mart

The BoSox may have made the most surprising acquisition of this trade deadline when they landed Victor Martinez for the package of Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price. Much has been made of the fact that the deal makes Terry Francona the operator of an unconventional merry-go-round of five proud veterans at six positions. That quintet of Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and Jason Varitek has combined for a somewhat astonishing 17 All-Star appearances, seven times have finished in the top five in MVP voting, and three of them own Gold Gloves (and Youkilis will probably make it four at some point in his young career). They'll make a cool $41.5 million this season.

To Francona falls the delicate task of telling one of these men each day that their name won't be on the lineup card. It's not all bad news. After all, with the exception of Youkilis, all are 30-years-or-older, so they could probably use a little rest. The BoSox manager will also be blessed with a great deal of variety as the quintet is comprise of one lefty, two righties, and two switch-hitters. Here are their platoon splits:

Mike Lowell (R) - vRHP: .294/.320/.450, vLHP: .315/.384/.584
Victor Martinez (S) - vRHP: .307/.373/.471, vLHP: .259/.363/.466
David Ortiz (L) - vRHP: .222/.320/.407, vLHP: .230/.294/.451
Jason Varitek (S) - vRHP: .223/.332/.406, vLHP: .250/.370/.539
Kevin Youkilis (L) - vRHP: .307/.408/.568, vLHP: .330/.464/.614

As you can see, only Varitek and Lowell show significant variations, and, as they are also the most senior citizens of Red Sox Nation, they will probably be getting the most days off. In truth, whether it happen now, in October, or at the beginning of next season, this trade probably means that, as John Kruk has suggested, Captain 'Tek is headed for a back-up role. Maybe he'll finally learn to catch Tim Wakefield. There are a few reasons for this. First, and foremost is, of course, that Victor Martinez is a legit middle-of-the-order hitter. Varitek wasn't V-Mart's offensive equal at any point in his career, but, while he's improved dramatically over his 2008 campaign, Varitek's current skill-set makes him undoubtedly the easiest out in the Red Sox lineup (bye-bye Julio Lugo and Nick Green), especially against right-handed pitching.

The faithful will say that 'Tek makes up for his offensive woes by being one of the game's greatest behind the plate. And this assertion, often followed by superlatives about "game-calling," is backed up of a 3.73 Catcher's ERA, best in the American League. His defense, however, does have one glaring flaw. While Varitek was never mistaken for a long-lost Molina brother, he threw out a respectable 24.7% of basestealers over his first eleven season. This year he's "gunned" down a mere 14%. This decline is contemporaneous with an much-noted increase in stolen base attempts around the league. As a result Varitek (and the Boston pitching staff, to be fair) is on pace to give up 120+ free bases in 2009. To put those numbers in perspective: Yadier Molina has a CS% of 41.0% and will fall victim to only around 30 successful attempts this season, despite playing in 15-25 more games.

It is no longer acceptable to ignore a catcher's throwing ability. It has been a growing trend since Mike Piazza tempted managers with the thought that they could get 30 HR and 100 RBI a season from their backstop. But Piazza never had to deal with those runnin' Rays. From 1993 to 2005, roughly the length of Piazza's catching career, only 27 players stole 50 or more bases and nobody stole more than 75. Moreover, only two teams, the '93 Expos and the '96 Rockies, stole more than 200 bases. The '96 Rockies were the only team to accomplish that feat from 1994 to 2006. Assuming the Rays maintain their current pace, both the '09 Rays and the '07 Mets will have joined the 200 SB club in the last three seasons. A dozen players have produced 50+ SB seasons in that time, assuming that the five new members from '09 maintain their current pace.

In the two game series between the Rays and Red Sox this week, the Rays nabbed six bases off Varitek in seven attempts. The only man he threw out was the not so fleet-footed Carlos Pena, which only further proves that Tampa Bay felt as though they could take extra bases with impunity.

Victor Martinez doesn't have the best arm in baseball, but in 2008 he threw out 37.1% and 32% in 2007. Though his legend may not be as thoroughly ingrained in the minds of the BoSox faithful, Martinez also has the reputation of a great "game-caller," and his career Catcher's ERA is 4.41 (Varitek's is 4.21), despite having managed some pretty poorly pitching staffs.

Martinez will be an improvement over Varitek both offensively and defensively, but Varitek will no doubt continue to catch two or three games a week (at which time V-Mart will often play first or DH) and this should help keep both of them fresher.

There is also one consideration which should not go unmentioned. Varitek has a player option for 2010. Considering the current market for veterans, it is unlikely he would find a job (or, at least, a million-dollar job) as a free agent with another team. That, and it seems unlikely he would want to leave Boston this late in his career. However, the Red Sox built his contract is such a way that if they were disappointed in his 2009 performance, his base salary would fall from $5 Million to $3 Million with bonuses based on games played ($400,000 for every ten starts past 80). It is very unlikely that the Red Sox will pay more than one of the bonuses in 2010. After all, Martinez has a club option for $7 Million, a steal for somebody of his talent.

We are nearing the end of a BoSox decade, and, fittingly, Varitek, Martinez, Ortiz, Lowell, and Josh Beckett all have contracts that expire at the end of 2010 (by which time J.D. Drew may become the longest tenured Red Sox). At that point, neither Varitek nor Martinez will probably be in Boston's plans, at least at catcher, especially if the trends toward speed and defense in the post-steroid era continue. And, on that note, you should check out the profile of Yadier Molina in this week's ESPN: The Magazine.

Whatever happened to Gyro-ball mania?!?...And other stories of oversight in 2008.

A year ago, the world, and especially ESPN, could not get enough of Daisuke Matsuzaka.  As a result he was the most watched pitcher with a 4.40 ERA.  His overall numbers were respectable (15-12, 201 K), but he was prone to high pitch counts and the meltdown inning, especially in the second half (5-6, 5.19 ERA).  On most nights he looked like a legitimate #3 starter, but very rarely like a $100 Million man.

This year Dice-K is getting less attention than Jed Lowrie, but he's pitching like he invented the fastball.  If his lead holds up this evening against the Orioles, he'll pick up his 15th win of the season, equaling his total from last year, despite the fact that it is only the middle of August and he missed most of June.  More importantly, those fifteen victories are balanced by only two losses and an ERA (2.72) that will rank in the top ten in baseball once he gets a few more innings.  

It's true that a Dice-K start is still a bit stressful for Red Sox fans.  He doesn't seem to like to pitch from the wind-up and he always seems to throw a hundred pitches by the fifth inning.  But it is hard to argue with the results and although he's giving up even more walks than he did in 2007, he is extraordinarily stingy with the base hits.  His Opponent's Batting Average, .208, is the best in baseball for pitchers with 120+ innings.  It's time to start acknowledging that he is something pretty special.  These are the numbers of a legitimate Ace.  Dice-K headlines my team of underrated performers from 2008.

Yadier Molina - C - St. Louis Cardinals

This is the youngest Molina's fourth full season and he is still just 25.  He has long been considered among the top defensive backstops in the baseball and seem primed to pick up his first Gold Glove at the end of the season.  Even more exciting for Cardinals fans is that Yadier has significantly improved his offensive contribution for the third consecutive season, hitting over .300 and posting the lowest strikeout rate in the MLB (14.6 PA/K).  It remains to be seen whether he will develop power (6 HR in 2008), but regardless, Yadier now possesses enough tools to be a starting catcher in the big leagues for a decade or more, which is no small feat.

Jason Giambi - 1B - New York Yankees

Joe Girardi refuses to make him a full-time first baseman or give him consistent starts against lefties, but the Giambino has once again recovered from a modest April to post very solid overall numbers.  This will be the third season since his steroid-confessing cancer-shortened 2004 in which he gets to 30 HR and post an OPS over 900.  He may not be worth $20 Million, but there are very few players in baseball who can do what he does in 140 games.  Next year he'll probably be doing it somewhere other than New York and I bet the mighty Yankees will have trouble filling his shoes.  

Mark DeRosa - 2B/UT - Chicago Cubs

One has to wonder: if the Cubs had managed to trade for Brian Roberts this past offseason, would Mark DeRosa have seen in fewer at-bats?  DeRosa has played 71 games at second base...and 72 at other places on the diamond.  He has a better OPS when he plays 3B or LF than when he's up the middle, so his lack of position security hasn't really effected his hitting.  DeRosa already has career highs in Runs (79), HR (14), BB (60), SB (5), and OPS (828), and needs only three more RBI to tie his career best (74).  DeRosa's consistency and flexibility have allowed the Cubs to whether injuries to Soriano and Lee, as well as spell Aramis Ramirez and Kosuke Fukudome.  Jim Hendry was heavily criticized when he gave DeRosa $13 Million for three years going into 2007, but DeRosa has had the two best years of his career, all things considered, and looks like a deal this season ($4.5 Million) compared to Orlando Hudson ($6.25 M), Brian Roberts ($6.3 M), and Jeff Kent ($9 M).  

An honorable mention needs to be made for Placido Polanco, perennially underrated, who is once again hitting well above .300 for Detroit and playing stellar defense for the same price as DeRosa.

Melvin Mora - 3B - Baltimore Orioles

After a second consecutive sub-par season in 2007, it looked like Mora's days as a regular might be nearing their end, but he has rebounded in a big way this year, helping to Orioles to remain respectable during their significant rebuilding process.  He is going to attain the 100-RBI plateau for only the second time in his career and the first since 2004 and may make a run at his career mark for homers (27) as well.  At this time last year, Mora looked like more contract baggage that the Orioles would be unable to unload, but if he can match this numbers for only $9 Million in 2009, Mora would be a outright steal for a contender who needs 3B help (Dodgers, Twins, Mariners, etc.).

Jhonny Peralta - SS - Cleveland Indians 

Only Hanley Ramirez (929) and Jose Reyes (851) have posted better OPS numbers than Jhonny Picks (815) in 2008.  He is way ahead of AL All-Star favorites Derek Jeter (760) and Michael Young (751).  He is second among shortstops in HR (19) and tops in RBI (67), despite playing for a team that has really struggled to score runs at times this season.  There has been some speculation about how much longer Peralta will remain a shortstop, with slick-fielding Asdrubel Cabrera already looking fairly comfortable at the major-league level, but Peralta fielding statistics have been well above the league average the last two seasons.  He is under contract until 2010 for a very reasonable price and he is only 26.  If the Indians want to supplant him, they could probably get a great return on the trade market while allowing him to remain at his favored position.

Raul Ibanez - LF - Seattle Mariners

Ibanez seems to be a candidate for the all-underrated team every season, partially because his impressive tools don't include the 30-HR power common amongst corner outfielders.  Ibanez is, however, on his way to his third consecutive 100-RBI season, despite the Mariners terrible offense and he may set career marks in doubles, average, and OPS.  Ibanez will be a free agent this offseason and his age (36) might scare teams away from a long-term contract.  But, he clearly still has a lot to offer on offense, especially for a team who won't rely on him as their primary middle-of-the-order presence.  

Curtis Granderson - CF - Detroit Tigers

It would be hard to duplicate the season he had in 2007, but because of Detroit's disappointing performance as a team and his early-season injury, people seem to have completely forgotten about one of the most exciting young players in the game.  In some ways, Granderson is actually showing improvement over last year (a scary thought) as his walk rate and OBP have gone up, while his strikeout rate has gone down, and his average and slugging have remained essentially the same.  In far fewer at-bats than last year, he's still on pace for around 20 HR and 100 runs scored.

Andre Ethier - RF - Los Angeles Dodgers

He's the least well-known name in the flabbergasting Dodger outfield rotation that now features Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, and Juan Pierre, but with the exception of Manny, who hit most of his dingers in Boston, Ethier has as manny homers as any of them (tied with Kemp for the team lead at 15).  Ethier doesn't have Kemp's raw tools, but he has better plate discipline (38 BB/66 K/393 AB compared to 35/123/463 for Kemp) and shows a fair amount of power.  Unlike Grady Little, who never seemed to believe in Ethier, Joe Torre has continued to favor him over his veteran alternatives (Pierre and Jones).

Fred Lewis - DH/OF - San Francisco Giants

As a bit of an honorable mention, I'd like to bring Fred Lewis to your attention.  He's been asked to fill some pretty big shoes, taking over for Barry Bonds in left field.  Last season, many scouts thought he was a pretty borderline prospect, even after his much-publicized cycle.  However, the Giants chose to give him an everyday shot this season (what did they have to lose?) and it seems to have paid off.  He looks like Granderson-lite, hitting out of the leadoff spot.  He's got great speed, power to all fields, and hits for a decent average (.284), but also has a propensity to strikeout (114 K).  Granderson raised his OBP in each of his first three seasons.  If Lewis can do the same, while developing 15-20 HR power, he will be a very valuable part of San Francisco's new look.