HippeauxNotes: Rays on the verge of burying Red Sox?

We're smack in the middle of a great week of baseball.  With every team playing every day this week, we've got access to 105 games in seven days.  It's also an odd week because each team will face three different competitors, thanks to the two-game sets featured from Monday through Thursday.  I can understand why the players wouldn't be thrilled by the proposition of so much travel on so little rest, but for the fans, it's a kind of baseball heaven.

This afternoon we begin the first interleague series of the season; the most interesting matchups being Boston at Philadelphia, the Yankees at the Mets, the Angels in St. Louis, and two of the hottest teams in baseball, the Dodgers and Tigers, squaring off in L.A.  It's seems as good a time as any to register some thoughts about the season so far, beginning with best team in the league.

The Tampa Bay Rays looked primed to make a major statement this week.  They pulled off a two-game sweep of the Yankees in New York and have won six straight and eight of their last nine, giving them a five-game lead heading into their weekend series in Houston.  That's the largest lead of any first-place team in baseball.  And, while the Rays are taking on the lowly Astros, the Red Sox will have to face the powerful Phillies on the road and the Yankees will "travel" to Citi Field to face the Mets, who have a 14-8 record at home this season.  The real opportunity for the Rays comes early next week, when the Red Sox come to Tampa for a three-game set.  Depending on what happens this weekend, it's very possible that a sweep could raise the Red Sox deficit to double digits, perhaps putting even the Wild Card out of reach.  ESPN2 will broadcast the series opener, which pits Wade Davis (4-3, 3.35 ERA) against Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.26 ERA) in a battle of promising young righthanders.  The Aces take the hill in game two, as James Shields (5-1, 3.08 ERA) matches up with Jon Lester (4-2, 3.47 ERA).  And on Wednesday the quiet Cy Young candidate, Matt Garza (5-1, 2.38 ERA), looks to prolong the misery of the Red Sox big free agent acquisition, John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA), who has surrendered eleven earned runs in his last thirteen innings.

Offseason Prospectus #11: The Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have been, as usual, one of the most active franchises of the offseason. Less than 24 hours after the official end of the season, Theo Epstein pulled off a somewhat surprising trade with the Florida Marlins that landed the Sox former "blue chip" prospect, Jeremy Hermida. Hermida has been a disappointment the past couple seasons (734 OPS), but is still only 26, perfectly capable of developing into a competent everyday player, though perhaps not the superstar scouts once imagined.

The same could be said of Boof Bonser, who Boston acquired last week for a player to be named later. Bonser missed the entirety of 2009 with a shoulder injury, but should be ready in time for 2010. Another former first-round pick, Boof never lived up to expectations in Minnesota, but he is only 28. Boston may see him as insurance for the rotation or as a potential reliever.

The Red Sox first free agent signing was Marco Scutaro, who inked a three-year deal (w/option) worth $14-17 Million. The framework of the deal suggests the Red Sox realize that by the end of his contract the 34-year-old infielder may be nothing more than a well-paid utilityman. Epstein hopes that Scutaro can equal what he did as Toronto's shortstop last season for at least one more year, while the front office monitors the health of Jed Lowrie and the maturation of Jose Iglesias.

Following Scutaro was a much more high profile prize, John Lackey, the best starting pitcher in the 2010 free agent class. Some, including myself, question whether Lackey is a true Ace, capable of leading the rotation of a contender, but in Boston he won't need to be. He will slot in behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, and alongside Daisuke Matsuzaka, giving Boston quite possibly the most intimidating front four in the American League. The addition of Lackey will take a little pressure off of a rehabilitating Dice-K and the youths who will likely compete for the final spot: Clay Buchholz (the front-runner after his fine conclusion to 2009), Bonser, and Michael Bowden.

On the same day the news of Lackey's signing broke, it was announced that the Red Sox were close to a deal with Mike Cameron, the veteran Gold Glove centerfielder. If his contract gets finalized, Cameron will become the Red Sox only right-handed outfielder. He should make an excellent, versatile platoon man. In all likelihood, he will even get a fair number of at-bats against righties, as he fills in during J. D. Drew's inevitable injuries and the equally inevitable cold streaks from the young and inconsistent tandem of Hermida and Jacoby Ellsbury. Cameron has been known throughout his career as a wonderful, charitable citizen and popular clubhouse presence, as well as a fine player, so he offers more than just production to a team that seemed to struggle with chemistry at time in 2009.

Finally, on the last day of the winter meetings Boston shocked the baseball world by announcing the trade of Mike Lowell (and $9 Million) to the Rangers for Max Ramirez, a prospect who is currently considered a catcher, but whose future with the Red Sox is likely as a first baseman or designated hitter. Lowell was one of the Red Sox most popular players and a clubhouse leader, but his value has been depressed by a hip surgery which limited him severely in 2009. Nonetheless, if the deal goes through (the deal has been delayed by Lowell's medical reports) Red Sox fans very well may regret it, especially this season, as they'll be paying three quarters of Lowell's salary so he can play for another team. This deal is probably more about coveting Max Ramirez than giving up on Lowell. Ramirez is only 25-years-old and has played only seventeen major league games, but has already been traded straight up for Bob Wickman (2006), Kenny Lofton (2007), and now Lowell. That's because, although Ramirez probably won't do much catching after 2010, he can rake. He is the kind of hitter who, if given an opportunity, could be very, very productive from the moment he enters the league (think Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Howard, etc.). The Ramirez trade and, indeed, all the work Theo Epstein has done so far this winter, anticipate major questions which the Red Sox will have to answer by this time next year.

Free Agents:

Rocco Baldelli (28) OF
Jason Bay (31) LF
Alex Gonzalez (33) SS [Signed with Toronto Blue Jays]
Billy Wagner (38) LHRP [Signed with Atlanta Braves]

Arbitration Eligible:

Brian Anderson (28) OF
Boof Bonser (28) RHSP
Manny Delcarmen (28) RHRP
Jeremy Hermida (26) OF
Casey Kotchman (27) 1B
Hideki Okajima (34) LHRP
Jonathan Papelbon (29) RHRP
Ramon Ramirez (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Michael Bowden (23) RHSP
Max Ramirez (24) C/DH
Josh Reddick (23) OF
Junichi Tazawa (24) RHSP

What's the price of nostalgia?

Currently, only three players from the 2004 World Series roster are still wearing Red Sox uniforms: David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, and Tim Wakefield. Next winter Papi and 'Tek will be free agents (Wakefield has two years left on his contract), as will Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez. There are a number of sentimental reasons to resign all four players, but Theo has proven himself to be largely immune to sentimentality; the Lowell trade being only the most recent example. This is a man who unceremoniously traded Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez, and who allowed wildly popular players like Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, and Pedro Martinez to walk because he didn't think they would be fiscally responsible signings. It is hard to find a fault with his track record. It is probably a foregone conclusion that Varitek will retire at the end of the season, but the other three are much more difficult to evaluate. Much is riding on there performances in 2010.

Was last spring a fluke or the shape of things to come?

In the first two months of 2009, David Ortiz hit .185 with one lonely home run. The Slump got so bad that even Red Sox fanatics like Bill Simmons were declaring Big Papi "done." However, from June 1st to the end of the season, Ortiz hit 27 HR, had 81 RBI, and posted an OPS of 904. Over the same four month period MVP candidates like Mark Texeira (23 HR, 78 RBI, 931 OPS), Miguel Cabrera (24 HR, 66 RBI, 921 OPS), and Kendry Morales (26 HR, 78 RBI, 964 OPS) posted very similar numbers. (I hate to say I told you so, but, well, I did.) If Big Papi produces at the latter rate in 2010, he will probably get the opportunity to sign a contract that assures he ends his career in a Red Sox uniform. However, if he again shows signs of premature decline, even over the short term, he will probably be next winter's version of Vladimir Guerrero, a legendary slugger who's currently being treated like a third-tier free agent.

Who is the face of the franchise for the "20-teens"?

With Manny gone, Varitek's departure imminent, and Papi in moderate decline, the Red Sox suffered from an obvious leadership vacuum in 2009, especially prior to the arrival of Victor Martinez. The competitive intensity of Kevin Youkilis often rubbed teammates the wrong way. Jonathan Papelbon and Josh Beckett appear too often as arrogant, self-involved, or, in Paps case, just a little dumb. Dustin Pedroia, the 2008 AL MVP, is the obvious answer, as his reputation for fierceness on the field is equaled by his good-humored disposition off of it. However, like Ortiz, Pedroia's influence seemed to fade as his stats came back to earth a little in 2009. The Red Sox really gelled upon the arrival of V-Mart, who possessed a similarly strong cohesive presence in Cleveland. If this trend continues, Boston's front office will be even more inclined to resign him next winter, though probably as a first-baseman, not a catcher.

Can Tito juggle all these All-Stars?

In the latter part of 2009, Terry Francona was faced with the daunting task of rotating Martinez, Varitek, Youkilis, Lowell, and Ortiz in a wild C/1B/3B/DH platoon. 2010 won't be any easier.

C: Ramirez, Martinez, Varitek

1B: Youkilis, Martinez, Kotchman

2B: Pedroia, Scutaro, Lowrie

3B: Youkilis, Scutaro, Lowrie

SS: Scutaro, Lowrie

OF: Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron, Hermida

DH: Ortiz, Ramirez, Martinez

Francona has the luxury of depth at almost every position, which gives him defense against the injuries which often hamper veteran clubs. But it will be a challenge of finding ample opportunities for thirteen position players who are all accustomed to playing everyday. There is also the question of 22-year-old Lars Anderson, the Red Sox top hitting prospect. If he doesn't get traded, he could be ready to enter the 1B/DH mix as early as midseason. At some point, having too many big talents and big egos fighting over the same positions could become a source of distraction and dissent in the Red Sox clubhouse. Or, if everything gels, it could make them a powerhouse offense equal to or surpassing the Yankees.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/24):

LF Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
2B Dustin Pedroia (R)
C Victor Martinez (S)
1B Kevin Youkilis (R)
DH David Ortiz (L)

RF J. D. Drew (L)
3B Adrian Beltre (R)
CF Mike Cameron (R)
SS Marco Scutaro (R)

SP Jon Lester (L)
SP Josh Beckett (R)
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
SP John Lackey (R)
SP Clay Buchholz (R)

CL Jonathan Papelbon (R)
SU Daniel Bard (R)
SU Hideki Okajima (L)
MR Ramon Ramirez (R)
MR Manny Delcarmen (R)
LOOGY Dustin Richardson (L)
SWING Tim Wakefield (R)

C Jason Varitek (S)
1B/3B Mike Lowell (R)
IF Jed Lowrie (S)
OF Jeremy Hermida (L)

Offseason Prospectus #2: The Los Angeles Angels

Angels fanatic, True Grich, made some early predictions regarding Anaheim's free agents. Well, so far he's one-for-one. Within 24 hours of the official end of the season, the Angels resigned Bobby Abreu for two years and $19 Million. Not quite the bargain basement price they got last spring ($5 Mil.) before Abreu drove in over a hundred runs for his seventh consecutive season and became a clubhouse leader and de facto batting instructor, helping several of his teammates in the pursuit of career highs.

During the ALDS against the Red Sox, Torii Hunter described Bobby Abreu as "my favorite player." Over the course of a single season, Abreu became so popular among fans and teammates that the Angels appear to have prioritized his contract over those of long time Halos like John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero, and Chone Figgins. And, it's hard to fault them.

According to FanGraphs, Abreu was worth over $11 Million in 2009, for just his on-the-field production during the regular season, and has been worth at least that much in ten of his last eleven seasons, so when you factor in potential playoff production and intangibles like leadership, Abreu will likely well exceed the approximately $9 Million he'll get in each of the next two seasons (Abreu's contract also includes a $9 Mil. option for 2012, with a $1 Mil. buyout). The bad news for the Angels is that they still have a lot of work to do this offseason.

Free Agents:

Kelvim Escobar (33) RHSP

Chone Figgins (31) 3B

Vladimir Guerrero (35) DH/RF

John Lackey (31) RHSP

Darren Oliver (38) LHRP

Robb Quinlan (32) 3B/1B

Arbitration Eligible:

Erick Aybar (25) SS

Maicer Izturis (28) 2B/SS

Howie Kendrick (25) 2B

Jeff Mathis (26) C

Mike Napoli (27) C

Joe Saunders (28) LHSP

Jered Weaver (26) RHSP

Reggie Willits (28) OF

ETA 2010?:

Trevor Bell (23) RHSP

Hank Conger (22) C

Freddy Sandoval (27) 3B

Brandon Wood (24) 3B/SS

Unfortunately for the Angels, because it is a rather thin free agent class in 2010, Lackey and Figgins will both be among the five most-coveted players on the market, driving up the price of their services. And, as you can see, the Angels not only face potentially expensive free agent decisions, but also have a number of very good young players who are due for sizable raises in arbitration. It may be the winter for them to consider multi-year deals for guys like Weaver, Saunders, and Aybar.

The Angels are not a team that is reluctant to spend money, but they usually budget for one or two major free agents, not three or four. To make matters worse, for the first time in years they face some serious competition in their own division. Both the Rangers and Mariners were among 2009's most pleasant surprises, finishing with 87 and 85 wins respectively, and there is no reason to expect either will be any worse in 2010. There is no room for stepping backward if the Angels want to return to the postseason for the fourth consecutive year and the sixth time in seven seasons.

The good news for Angels fans is that they won't have to wait long to get a sense of their team's intentions. The Abreu signing is one in a long line of Angels moves made very early in the "hot stove" season. In the next couple weeks, I expect the Angels will also make reasonable offers to Lackey and Figgins, maybe others as well, and if those are rejected, will start looking elsewhere very quickly.

Vladimir Guerrero is one of the most popular (and best) players in Angels history, but his marked decline over the last two seasons, due in part to injuries, combined with the bevy of corner-outfield and DH-type players in the Angels system, may signal the end of Vladdy era. If he wants to stay in southern California, it will almost certainly require a dramatic paycut, perhaps as part of an incentive and option laden contract. Guerrero is a very proud player and he may, instead, choose to auction his services to the highest bidder, and their will be interested parties. The Angels worst nightmare is seeing the 35-year-old have a resurgent season as the DH for the Mariners (1089 career OPS @ Safeco) or Rangers (1175 career OPS @ Arlington).

Figgins is also a popular player, a career Angel with ties to the community. He is also among the best leadoff hitters in the game, in a year that several big-market teams (Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, etc.) could be looking for a top-of-the-order hitter. Figgins has settled at third base over his last couple seasons in Anaheim, but if he were willing to consider the super-utility role he excelled at earlier in his career, his flexibility would probably be worth millions of dollars to some franchises.

The likelihood of a Figgins exodus is increased by the fact that the Angels have several potential replacements already in-house. Brandon Wood has been waiting awhile for the chance at an everyday job. He has slugged 20+ HR in the minors for five straight seasons (homering approximately once in every eighteen plate appearances), so it's clear there's not much left for him to prove at AAA. The Angels also have Freddy Sandoval, who was injured for much of '09, but hit .335 at Salt Lake in '08. And, they could probably work Maicer Izturis into the third base rotation, if they decide to give Howie Kendrick more at-bats against right-handed pitching.

John Lackey represents the most difficult quandary for the Angels brass. He is their undeniable Ace, yet he hasn't made thirty starts since '07 and (surprisingly) he's won more than fourteen games only once in his career. He's only 31-years-old, so his best years could still be in front of him (ala Jon Lieber), although his struggles with "fitness" could make him more like Bartolo Colon, who had his last good season at the age of 32. Because he is clearly the best free agent pitcher on the market, somebody is going to give Lackey a long-term, big-money deal, regardless of the risk. If it isn't the Angels, they will probably choose to sign a back-end innings-eater (perhaps a Jarrod Washburn renaissance?) and hope that an true Ace emerges from the trio of Weaver, Ervin Santana, and Scott Kazmir, each of whom have the talent to rise to the occasion.

Rumors that the Angels have been exploring a Milton Bradley for Gary Matthews Jr. swap, though probably unfounded (remember how well Mike Scioscia got along with Jose Guillen?), do suggest that the Angels front office will be willing to explore creative solutions this winter. They have always valued their prospects very highly, and have been rewarded for their patience with players like Santana, Juan Rivera, and Kendry Morales, but the Abreu signing and the Kazmir trade, combined with the fact that they don't have a single player signed beyond 2012, may suggest that Los Angeles is embracing a "win now" mentality.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

SS Erick Aybar (S)

RF Bobby Abreu (L)

CF Torii Hunter (R)

1B Kendry Morales (S)

DH Hideki Matsui (L)

RF Juan Rivera (R)

2B Howie Kendrick (R)

C Mike Napoli (R)

3B Maicer Izturis (S)

SP Scott Kazmir (L)

SP Jared Weaver (R)

SP Joe Saunders (L)

SP Ervin Santana (R)

SP Trevor Bell (R)

CL Brian Fuentes (L)

SU Kevin Jepsen (R)

SU Fernando Rodney (R)

MR Scot Shields (R)

MR Jason Bulger (R)

LOOGY Brian Shouse (L) FA

SWING Matt Palmer (R)

C Jeff Mathis (R)

IF Brandon Wood (R)

IF Freddy Sandoval (S)

OF Gary Matthews Jr. (S)