Fantastic Thoughts: "Bill Hall is Jose Oquendo with power." (Fantasy Baseball Second Base Preview)

Although the depth at second has improved dramatically in the last few years, it is still a relatively sparse fantasy position.  Shortstop is shallower.  Catcher is by a slim margin.  And third base is close to neck-and-neck.  The sparsity of the infield "skills" positions leads fantasy owners to overpay for the guys at or near the top of the pile.  We'll routinely treat Hanley Ramirez as fantasy royalty, even though he has only one season of 30+ HR, only one season of 100+ RBI, and only two seasons batting above .301.

I, personally, rarely pay premiums at scarce positions.  So, in the middle infield I generally look for "sleepers" and value plays...as well as flexibility.

Especially in deeper leagues, when you take a moderate risk by making Aaron Hill or Neil Walker your primary second-baseman, with similar players at SS and/or 3B, you want to back them up with some low-risk options off the bench, preferably guys who play several positions.  Here's a quick look at some interesting "eligibility" guys for this coming season

Bill Hall - Houston Astros - 2B, 3B, SS, OF

Depending on what your league regulations are, Hall may have as many as four position eligibilities.  He actually played seven different positions for the Red Sox last season, including one appearance at pitcher.  More importantly, he currently looks like an everyday player for his new team.  While he's not going to do your team average any good, he should be good for 20+ homers and double-digit steals over a full season and shouldn't cost much more than $1 bid or a late round flyer.

Sean Rodriguez - Tampa Bay Rays - 2B, 3B, SS, OF

Again, you league's eligibility requirements will determine what he gets (5+ games at all the positions listed above), but he'll definitely qualify at 2B and OF.  Rodriguez is only 25-years-old, slated for pretty much full-time at-bats in a loaded lineup, and had a AAA slugging percentage of .620 in 750 plate appearances.  He's got premium power, decent speed (13 SB in '10), and shouldn't decimate your average (.298 at AAA).  Unlike Hall, he won't come free, especially in deep leagues, but might be worth chasing nonetheless.

Jed Lowrie - Boston Red Sox - 1B, 2B, SS

It wasn't that long ago that the Red Sox considered Lowrie their top prospect, ahead of guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and even Jon Lester.  In 2010, he finally showed a flicker of that promise at the major-league level.  From July 26 to the end of the season he got relatively regular playing time and hit .294 with a 936 OPS.  He closed off the year by hitting a pair of homers against the Yankees, pushing them into second place (and the Wild Card) behind the Rays.  It was a small victory, but one that surely didn't go unnoticed in Red Sox nation.  There's no clear place for Lowrie in Boston, but Marco Scutaro may be on a short leash and, of course, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia don't haven't the greatest track records for staying healthy (nor does Lowrie).  He's worth stashing in deep leagues and worth following in shallower ones.  I expect him to be a starter by August.  

Now, on to the rankings...

1. Robinson Cano, NYY
2. Chase Utley, PHI
3. Rickie Weeks, MIL
4. Ian Kinsler, TEX
5. Dan Uggla, ATL
6. Brandon Phillips, CIN
7. Dustin Pedroia, BOS

It's actually a pretty crowded field at the top of the second-base rankings.  Following an MVP-caliber 2010 season, which coincided with injury-plagued campaigns from Utley and Pedroia, Cano is the clear #1 option at the position, but don't fret if you miss out.  Utley had a excellent stretch run at the end of last year and should be primed to bounce back in 2011, at a slightly reduced price.  There's also little reason to believe Pedroia and Kinsler aren't capable of returning to form, but be aware, in terms of 5X5 fantasy production, Brandon Phillips is very nearly their equal and comes without the injury risk, having played 140+ games in each of the last five seasons.

8. Kelly Johnson, ARZ
9. Ben Zobrist, TBR
10. Aaron Hill, TOR
11. Martin Prado, ATL
12. Neil Walker, PIT

This group can be summarized by the phrase "one good year."  For Johnson, Prado, and Walker it was 2010.  For Zobrist and Hill, 2009.  All of the players from this group have surprisingly power potential, especially for the middle-infield, but otherwise their strengths vary.  Zobrist and Johnson can get you stolen bases.  Prado hits for a high average.  Walker is young enough that there may still be room for development.  Unfortunately, there's not a lot of safety here and it will probably be at least another year before we can confidently say which of them was a fluke.

13. Brian Roberts, BAL
14. Chone Figgins, SEA

Speedsters a renowned for their expeditious declines.  Roberts and Figgins, both 33-years-old, are coming off disappointing seasons which could signal that descent has begun.  On the other hand, in limited opportunity following his return from the D.L., Roberts still showed good speed (10 for 12 in SB attempts), though absent his usual power (.405 SLG).  Figgins managed to pile up the steals (42), even though his season was in nearly every other capacity the worst of his career.  Advantage goes to Roberts primarily because he'll be hitting atop a revitalized lineup, whereas Figgins plays in the offensive wasteland of Seattle.  Both are heavy in the risk department, but they should come much cheaper than they have in the past and therefore might be worth the gamble.

15. Gordon Beckham, CWS
16. Howie Kendrick, LAA
17. Mike Aviles, KCR
18. Sean Rodriguez, TBR
19. Eric Young Jr., COL
20. Danny Espinosa, WAS
21. Ryan Raburn, DET

The next class of potential breakout second-baseman is led by two highly-touted prospects who, as yet, haven't put it all together at the major-league level.  Beckham got off to a horrid start in 2010, but had two strong months in July and August (.332 AVG, 941 OPS) before his season was cut short by injury.  Rodriguez and Young won't get as much attention, because they don't offer a divers toolset, but Young has premium speed and Rodriguez premium power, so you could do worse in deep leagues.  The diamond in the rough here is Mike Aviles, who could be this year's version of Martin Prado.  In most leagues he'll be eligible at three infield positions (2B, 3B, SS) and has the ability to hit over .300 with 10-15 HR and 20+ steals, if he can hold down an everyday job.  Wilson Betemit and Mike Moustakas are waiting in the wings, so Aviles needs to get off to a hot start.

22. Orlando Hudson, SDP
23. Freddy Sanchez, SFG
24. Omar Infante, FLA
25. Juan Uribe, LAD
26. Ty Wigginton, COL
27. Bill Hall, HOU
28. Mark Ellis, OAK
29. Carlos Guillen, DET

In most league you won't want anything to do with these guys, but in deep leagues, one has to plow the depths of the middle-infield ranks.  Infante had a "breakout" season in 2010 which prompted his selection to the All-Star game, but his excellent average (.321) didn't bring much along with it (65 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 7 SB) and I have serious doubts there is any upside at age 29.  Wigginton, who has legit power, could benefit from his move to Colorado, except that there is no clear place for him to play.  If a Colorado infielder suffers an injury, he could jump up the list.

30. Dustin Ackley, SEA
31. Daniel Murphy, NYM
32. Luis Valbuena, CLE
33. Alexi Casilla, MIN
34. Jeff Baker, CHC

This is the deep sleeper contingent.  Seattle seems prepared to hand a full-time gig to their top prospect following his dynamite Arizona Fall League performance, but his full season totals from AA and AAA were less than thrilling (775 OPS).  I'm not convinced he's ready, but if you can get him on the cheap there is obviously tons of upside.  The Mets Daniel Murphy experiment is probably destined for failure.  It is the Mets after all.  But if Murphy does prove himself able to handle the position switch, he has the offensive talent to be a top 15 fantasy second-baseman.

Fantastic Questions: "Pay for Rays?"

We've survived the Ides of March and, although your draft and auction season is probably just beginning, mine is already wrapping up.  Most blogger and fantasy analyst leagues and mocks happen well in advance of the season, so that there is a chance for commentary.  As such, I've already done 8 drafts/auction in a variety of different formats and I'm beginning to feel like I've got a pretty good sense of the trends this March and some of the questions you need to ask yourself during your draft prep, like...


What can you expect from Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist?


Last season the Rays finished fifth in the American League in scoring.  All the teams who finished ahead of them went to the playoffs.  They had been the top scoring franchise at the All-Star Break.  And yet, the Rays got very little from B. J. Upton, Dioner Navarro, and Pat Burrell.  They lost Akinori Iwamura for the year.  They lost Carlos Pena for all of the September.  Where was all this production coming from?  The obvious answers are Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford, but the big surprise in 2009 was how much the Rays depended on Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist...on both sides of the ball.

Until last year, Bartlett was viewed primarily as a defender.  In both '07 and '08 he finished third among AL shortstops in UZR, but it both seasons his OPS was under 700.  He was the classic "slick-field, no-hit" shortstop.  But in 2009, his batting average jumped to .320, 44 points above his career average up to that point.  His OPS jumped almost 200 points, to 879, as he hit more home runs in one season (14) than he had in 1700 previous major-league plate appearances (11).  Thanks to a spike in OBP he was able to cash in more often on his speed and swiped 30 bases for the first time in his career and scored 90 runs.  By the end of '09 Bartlett had set career highs in every statistical category and had gone to his first All-Star Game.

As 2010 begins, he is among the most coveted shortstops in fantasy baseball, especially in AL-only leagues.  In many drafts he is the second player taken at his position, behind Derek Jeter.  If you want Bartlett in an auction league, you'd better be prepared to pay $18-$20.

Unfortunately, there is almost no way that Bartlett will live up to that price.  His BABIP in 2009 was almost 40 points above his career norm, which accounts entirely for his tremendously high average.  Every projection I've seen has him settling back into the .280-.290 range.  This, of course, is likely to effect his run, RBI, and stolen base totals.  However, Bartlett did hit for a high average in the minor leagues, so I could see him once again breaking .300, though not by much.

There is even less reason to believe that the power is legit.  Bartlett hit a grand total of nine homers in three seasons at AAA.  His '09 slugging percentage was 20 points higher than his previous career high...at any level.

I isn't reasonable expect more from Bartlett in 2010 than .295 AVG, 80 R, 8 HR, 55 RBI, and 25 SB.  Even those numbers might be slightly optimistic.  Clearly, he's still worth owning, especially in AL-only play, where good shortstops are particularly scarce, but I'd let Bartlett fall behind Alexei Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Miguel Tejada on my draft board and in an auction league I would prefer to $5-$8 on the potential of J. J. Hardy or Erick Aybar, than $15-$20 on Jason Bartlett.

Zobrist's case is very different.  Although his 27 HR and 91 RBI seemed to come from out of nowhere, Zobrist has always been a very good hitter.  His problem has been getting enough at-bats to put his talents on display.  Whether because he was dogged by minor injuries or because he drew the short stick on the Rays depth chart, Zobrist hadn't gotten a full season worth of plate appearances at any level since 2006.  The Rays brass bounced him all over the organization and the diamond the last three years, as he logged innings at every position besides pitcher and catcher.  Nevertheless, he always posted solid averages (.316 in 364 minor-league games) and exceptional OBP (.429) and BB/K (1.29).  There was evidence of developing power as well, although his .543 SLG in '09 may be a bit on the high side.

Settled into second base and getting everyday at-bats, I expect Zobrist could actually build on his '09 campaign, at least in three categories.  I don't expect more than 25 HR and 15 SB (Zobrist has never run at a particularly high rate of success), but 100+ R and 100+ RBI are very realistic if the Rays continue to bat him fifth and I think his average will climb above .300.  On my board he ranks just below the top tier of second baseman (Utley, Pedroia, Phillips, Cano, Kinsler) and I'd be willing to pursue him up to and perhaps slightly above $20, depending on the league.  

Offseason Prospectus #22: The Tampa Bay Rays

Underdogs are exceedingly rare in baseball.  That is, teams that come as if from out of nowhere and make a serious run at the playoffs.  Even rarer are underdogs who get to the very brink of being champions, as the Rays did in 2008.  And rarest of all is an underdog who can duplicate such a performance from one season to the next.

It was almost inevitable that the 2009 Rays would backtrack, at least nominally.  But let me remind you that finishing in third place, with a winning record, in the AL East is no small accomplishment.  The 2009 Rays were fifth in the AL in runs scored and starter's ERA.  With 84 wins and a +49 run differential in the toughest division in baseball, one could make a strong case that the 2009 Rays were one of the top four teams in the American League (trailing the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels).

Prognosticators have already resumed business as usual, treating the AL East as the two-horse race it has been for most of the last decade (since 1997, only once has a team other than Boston or New York won the division, and only one other time did a team other than Boston or New York finish second).  Rest assured, however, neither Terry Francona nor Joe Girardi view the Rays as underdogs any longer, and Tampa Bay is only a few good breaks away from being right back in the race for the AL pennant.