An Idealistic All-Star Ballot (AL)

It's that time of year, when one could responsibly consider being an informed participant in the All-Star Voting.  Last year, we fans elected Josh Hamilton to start.  At the time, he was hitting .226 with 6 HR and had spent much of the previous three months on the D.L.  This is merely the most recent of many ridiculous selections.  From the much-publicized perspective that the All-Star game now "counts," because it determines home-field advantage for the World Series, the fact the game is still treated as an exhibition in terms of voting seems counter-intuitive.  One could, I suppose, rationalize voting for the worst players on  the AL ballot, if you favored team is from the NL.

We'll set the incongruities of the process aside for now, as I offer what I deem the most deserving candidates at each position, starting in the American League:

The Albatrosses

It has become habit for me to refer to "contractual albatrosses," especially during these months, when teams are weighing their investment options. I was asked last week what exactly I meant by applying this term to several players on the Giants and what exactly qualifies. While I haven't fashioned anything more than a fast and loose definition, I can say that the albatross metaphor comes from the famous Samuel Coleridge poem, "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner," in which the narrator kills the bird, cursing himself and his crew, and is forced to wear the bird's corpse around his neck. As such, the albatross metaphor refers to a weighty burden or punishment of incredible duration. Attempting this explanation, of course, makes the baseball application seem a little ridiculous, but what I'm implying is that large, lengthy contracts given to players whose production wanes soon after signing can leave a franchise "wandering" for many years, economically crippled by overpriced commitments and shrinking revenues.

Here are what I see as the fifteen worst contracts in the major leagues going into the 2010 season. Some of these contracts haven't yet become irredeemable, but are on the verge of being.

15. Brad Lidge - RP - Philadelphia Phillies
3 yrs./$37.5 Mil. thru 2011 ($12.5 Mil. Opt./$1.5 Mil. Buyout)

He's one of the highest-paid closers in the game, yet he blew more saves than anybody in history in '09. There's still a very real chance he bounces back next year, but Phillies fans have to very nervous. Before Lidge's contract expires, Philadelphia will have to negotiate contracts with Jayson Werth, Cliff Lee, and Shane Victorino. If Lidge's contract prevents them from locking up any one of those guys, he had better be back to shutting the door with much greater frequency than he did in '09.

14. Michael Young - 3B - Texas Rangers
5 yrs./$80 Mil. thru 2013 (Limited No-Trade Clause)

Again, this shouldn't imply that Michael Young isn't a fine player. Perhaps he will earn every dollar of this deal, but coming out of '09 it raises some red flags. First of all, the Rangers proved that they are a borderline contender this season, but their ownership spiraled into bankruptcy and the team in unlikely to have much payroll flexibility this offseason or next. They have been forced to part ways with useful players like Marlon Byrd and Kevin Millwood. It was especially odd that the Rangers handed him this mega-deal than immediately admitted that they didn't know how he best fit into their long-term plans. They wisely moved him from shortstop in order to clear the way for Elvis Andrus, but now he may be blocking their ability to advance Chris Davis and Justin Smoak, and get the most out of Mike Lowell. It would appear to me, at least at this juncture, that although Young is a very good player, Texas paid marquee money, probably higher than his market value, which could've been used to fill more glaring needs on the pitching staff and at catcher.

13. Juan Pierre - OF - Los Angeles Dodgers
5 yrs./$44 Mil. thru 2011 (Limited No-Trade Clause)

Juan Pierre has behaved like a saint in Los Angeles so far. First Andruw Jones, then Manny Ramirez pushed him into a reserve role (making him the most expensive pinch-runner in the National League). He, like Orlando Hudson, did not fuel any media controversy by criticizing his manager or demanding a trade, but you can tell he is itching to get back in a starting lineup. During Manny's suspension Pierre batted .318 with 32 R, 21 SB, and a .381 OBP, making a strong case that he could be helping any number of teams who are looking for a quality leadoff hitter. The problem is that he's still owned $18.5 Million over the next two seasons. He makes more money than Jimmy Rollins or Carl Crawford, meaning the Dodgers would have to eat some of it just to get rid of him. That could mean a lot more biding his time, stewing on the bench for Pierre.

12. Alex Rios - OF - Chicago White Sox
7 yrs./$70 Mil. thru 2014 ($13.5 Mil. Opt/$1 Mil. Buyout in '15, Limited No-Trade Clause)

Alex Rios is quite possibly the single most talented player on this list. He has all five tools and some of them in spades, but his offensive production has mysteriously dropped off a cliff since he signed this monster deal prior to the 2008 season in Toronto. Over the last three seasons his OPS+ has dropped from 122 to 111 to 80 (100 is average), despite the fact that at 28 years old, he is smack in the center of his so-called "prime." By picking him up off waivers in August, the White Sox gambled that Rios would find his stroke again in a new environment, while shoring up centerfield, which has been a festering sore on the South Side since Aaron Rowand left in '06. Rios defiantly failed in this task, batting .199 over his remaining 41 games. He has over $60 Million left on his contract, which is now exclusively the Chicago White Sox problem.

11. Oliver Perez - SP - New York Mets
3 yrs./$36 Mil. thru 2011

He made more money this season than Matt Cain, Dan Haren, and Cliff Lee combined. They each won fourteen games (and each would've won more, had they not suffered from poor run support), while Perez made fourteen starts and won three games. More to the point, the division rival Braves signed an almost identical contract (3 yrs./$34.5 Mil.) with Cy Young-contender Javier Vazquez. The rumors about the Wilpon's investments in the Madoff scandal suggest that the Mets won't be buying their way out of mistakes like these as they might've done in the past (or as their crosstown rival so often does). They enter next season with question marks at every position but third base and closer, as the health of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Johan Santana continue to be of concern. In the end, this may be the deal that defines Omar Minaya's legacy.

10. Jeff Suppan - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
4 yrs./$42 Mil. thru 2010 ($12.75 Mil. Opt./$2 Mil. Buyout in '11, Limited No-Trade Clause)

On a team filled with off-the-charts talent, Jeff Suppan is the highest-paid player. The Brewers may have a limited window of time in which to use their spectacular core (Fielder, Braun, Gallardo, Hart, Weeks, Parra, etc.) of homegrown players to make a serious run at a championship. They are one or two pitchers away from being as dangerous as the Phillies, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs. One wonders if it hadn't been for Suppan's contract whether they might've made a more serious run at resigning Sabathia, or maybe could be making a serious run at Halladay. By the end of next season, it may be too late for the "Baby Brewers"?

9. Jake Westbrook - SP - Cleveland Indians
3 yrs./$33 Mil. thru 2010

The Indians get a lot of press for being a well-run franchise. And it's true, this past season aside, they are routinely competitive despite coming from a small market. One wonders, however, what they might be like if they hadn't handed out their three biggest contracts to Jake Westbrook, Travis Hafner, and Kerry Wood. Westbrook has made only five starts since signing this deal. Next season he will attempt to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. Then he will become somebody else's problem...or, with his value suppressed, he'll sign elsewhere for cheap and be comeback player of the year in 2011. Either way, it's not a pretty picture for the Tribe.

8. Aaron Rowand - CF - San Francisco Giants
5 yrs./$60 Mil. thru 2012 (Limited No-Trade Clause)

Along with the Indians, they are the only team with multiple Albatrosses (and Edgar Renteria wasn't far from making this list), which makes it peculiar that Peter MacGowan was so eager to resign Brian Sabean. Rowand's tenure with the Giants hasn't been a total waste. He has kept himself in the lineup and plays solid defense. But when you consider what he gets paid, a 743 OPS over the past two seasons is a little discouraging. When the Giants handed him this deal, they were eager to make a splash after the ends of the Bonds era in the Bay Area, but they would be in such a better position had they held onto that money for a couple of years, dedicating it to going after a Texeira, a Holliday, or a Fielder, or to locking up Cain and Lincecum.

7. Travis Hafner - DH - Cleveland Indians
4 yrs./$57 Mil. thru 2012 ($13 Mil. Opt./$2.75 Mil. Buyout in '13, Limited No-Trade Clause)

Hafner is only 32, but thoses back-to-back 1000+ OPS seasons in '05 and '06 seem like a long time ago. Injuries have been the main problem, but one has to be concerned that repeated shoulder surgeries could sap Pronk's power permanently, much as they did Scott Rolen's. It rarely pays to make a full-time DH your keystone, but that's what the Indians chose to do. Since then, they've waved goodbye to C. C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Casey Blake, and Franklin Gutierrez. Coincidence?

6. Gary Matthews Jr. - OF - Los Angeles Angels
5 yrs./$50 Mil. thru 2011 (Limited No-Trade Clause)

In November of 2006, G-Matt was coming off easily the best season of his career, playing in the bandbox ballpark in Arlington. The Angels gambled that he was a late-bloomer. It turned out that 2006 was an abnormality and that Matthews Jr. was actually the journeyman fourth outfielder he appeared to be while playing for the Cubs, Padres, Pirates, Mets, and Orioles. Somehow the Angels missed that memo, so now they pay him $10,000,000 a year to play late-inning defense.

5. Alfonso Soriano - LF - Chicago Cubs
8 yrs./$136 Mil. thru 2014 (No-Trade Clause)

The Fonz moved up this list in a hurry in '09. Was this his "jumping the shark" moment? A repeat performance in 2010 could catapult him to the very top. But there is also the chance that this was a fluke, that he's still a legitimate $100 Million-Dollar Man. Cubs fans would probably tell you, however, that they aren't holding their breath.

4. Barry Zito - SP - San Francisco Giants
7 yrs./$126 Mil. thru 2013 (Vesting $18 Mil. Option for 2014 based on IP, No-Trade Clause)

This is probably the most famous albatross, largely because it was so clearly a mistake from the very moment the contract was signed. For the rest of his life Brian Sabean will wake up sweating with the cackling of horned versions of Scott Boras and Billy Beane still ringing in his ears. There is no way to look past the idiocy of this signing. All the signs were there. Everybody saw it, except for Sabean. But, at least Zito is going to make 30+ starts and pitching 180+ innings every year. He is the most overpaid innings-eater of all time. But those teams who signed similarly massive deals with Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, Denny Neagle, and Chan Ho Park will tell you: be thankful for your innings, your double digit wins, and your league-average ERA. It could be a lot worse. You could've signed Carlos Silva...

3. Carlos Silva - SP - Seattle Mariners
4 yrs./$48 Mil. thru 2011 ($12 Mil. Opt./$2 Mil. Buyout in '12)

When Seattle signed Silva, they were under no illusion that he would be an Ace. What they though they were getting was exactly what Silva had given the Twins for the previous four seasons, an average of 31 starts, 12 wins, and 194 innings per season, with a thoroughly average ERA (4.42) and WHIP (1.36). One can certainly question whether even those numbers would've been worth $12 Million/year, but thusfar Seattle has received much less. In the first two years of his contract Silva has made only 34 starts, during which he has gone 5-18 with a 6.81 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Mariners pay Silva $25.5 Million over the next two years not to pitch for them.

2. Eric Chavez - 3B - Oakland Athletics
6 yrs./$66 Mil. thru 2010 ($12.5 Mil. Opt./$3 Mil. Buyout for '11, Limited No-Trade Clause)

The good news for the A's is that it's almost over. The bad news is, Chavez's appearances have declined in every year since he signed his deal, culminating in a mere eight games and thirty at-bats in '09. He hasn't gotten to 350 AB since '06, the last time the A's were above .500. This is Billy Beane's nightmare. He had to choose one player to be the face of the franchise, the investment which would provide some stability on a roster subject to continual turnover. He could've had Miguel Tejada or Tim Hudson or Jermaine Dye or Barry Zito or Rich Harden or Nick Swisher. But he chose Eric Chavez. It could've been worst. He could've gone with Mark Mulder (remember him?).

1. Vernon Wells - CF - Toronto Blue Jays
7 yrs./$126 Mil. thru 2014 (No-Trade Clause)

When wells signed this extension in December of 2006, he was coming off a four season stretch in which he had maintained a very solid 853 OPS and averaged 29 HR and 97 RBI per year. He had also won three consecutive Gold Gloves. He had just turned 28. There was no reason for the Blue Jays to believe he wouldn't be their franchise player for many years to come. Unfortunately, that's not how it has worked out so far. Over the last three seasons Wells has managed only a 743 OPS, 16 HR, and 75 RBI. Worse yet, the contract was severely backloaded, so that Toronto will be forced to pay Wells $21-23 Million in each of the next four seasons, by the end of which, considering the steepness of his recent decline, there is a fairly high likelihood he won't even be a starter. Some have even suggested that the Blue Jays would be best served by simply eating much of his remaining salary either in a lopsided trade or by simply non-tendering him. Sadly, Vernon Wells may go down in history as the quintessential albatross, the most prohibitive contract ever signed.

Offseason Prospectus #3: The Chicago White Sox

Kenny Williams, as usual, wasted no time getting his offseason started. Within a week of the end of the World Series he had already made a trade (netting Mark Teahen from Kansas City for Josh Fields and Chris Getz), resigned a veteran (Mark Kotsay), and declined the team option on another (Jermaine Dye). The trade, which surprised a few people, since it included a guy (Fields) who hit 23 HR for the White Sox at the age of 24 in 2007, seems designed to give the White Sox flexibility (Teahen can play 3B, 1B, OF, and even a little 2B) and unload a couple fading prospects who will be promised many more "developmental" at-bats with the Royals than they would've gotten with the Sox. Getz and Fields proved in '09 that they weren't really ready to be everyday players, at least not on a contending team, and the White Sox are, most definitely, one of the dozen or so franchises who enters every season with the intention to win it all.

Free Agents:

Ramon Castro (34) C

Bartolo Colon (37) RHSP

Octavio Dotel (36) RHRP

Jermaine Dye (36) RF

Scott Podsednik (34) OF

Arbitration-Eligible:

D. J. Carrasco (33) RHRP

John Danks (25) RHSP

Bobby Jenks (29) RHRP

Tony Pena (28) RHRP

Carlos Quentin (27) LF/DH

Mark Teahen (28) 3B/UT

ETA 2010?:

Tyler Flowers (24) C

Lucas Harrell (25) RHSP

Dan Hudson (23) RHSP

Brent Lillibridge (26) INF

Jhonny Nunez (24) RHRP

Clevelan Santeliz (23) RHRP

Dayan Viciedo (21) 3B

In 2009 the White Sox finished below .500 (just barely, .488) for only the second time in the last decade. Thanks mostly to their long-awaited World Series victory in 2005, the popular tandem of manager, Ozzie Guillen, and GM, Kenny Williams, will likely be steering the Pale Stockings for the foreseeable future. And, despite Ozzie's quirky, occasionally offensive personality, there is a lot to like about this South Side administration. Williams is not risk-adverse. He is willing to gamble. Sometimes those gambles pay off, as in his acquisition of Carlos Quentin prior to the 2008 season. Other times, as in the waiver claim on Sixty Million Dollar Man, Alex Rios, and the trade for Jake Peavy this fall, they don't...at least not immediately.

What Williams and Guillen clearly recognized this past season, however, was that the core which won the '05 championship and took them back to the playoffs in '08, has aged considerably, past the point of viability in many cases. The 2010 team will be considerably younger. Gone are Jim Thome (39), Jermaine Dye (36), Jose Contreras (38), and, probably, free agents Octavio Dotel (36) and Scott Podsednik (34). The new White Sox will be built around Gordon Beckham (23), Alexei Ramirez (28), Quentin (27), Rios (29), Peavy (29), John Danks (25), and Gavin Floyd (27); and led, of course, by the longtime "faces of the franchise," Mark Buehrle (31) and Paul Konerko (34). Clearly, this is a team which can easily compete in the tightly-packed AL Central. With rebounds from Peavy, Quentin, and Rios, and a couple smart moves this winter, they could match-up pretty well with the big boys of the American League.

Williams still has a few questions to answer. Center-field has been a black hole since Aaron Rowand was traded prior to the 2006 season. The good defenders (Brian Anderson, Dewayne Wise, etc.) were automatic outs, and the decent hitters (Scott Podsednik, Nick Swisher, etc.) left serious gaps in the alleys, which is a major problem when your top three starting pitchers (Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd) are all in the top 25 in the AL in fly-ball rate.

Alex Rios was brought in to help solidify the defense, while, hopefully, providing significantly better than the 530 OPS he posted after joining the team in '09. The departures of Thome and Dye give Williams flexibility. He could move the oft-injured and defensively mediocre Quentin to DH or continue to play him in left. He could go after a true centerfielder like Mike Cameron or Coco Crisp, who combined with Rios in right would dramatically help Chicago's rotation. If the brass are willing to spend, the White Sox could even make an offer on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Or, they could go back to a relatively inexpensive Thome-esque veteran, somebody like Carlos Delgado, Vladimir Guerrero, or Gary Sheffield. Chicago definitely needs two OF/DH additions before the season begins, because with Fields in KC, they have no potential replacements within the system. That shouldn't necessarily be poor reflection on the White Sox system. OF/DH types are the most readily available players on the free agent market most years.

The Sox have used prospects as trade bait in recent years to an extent most teams in this era are reluctant to do, which is how they've been able to acquire major-league talent like Peavy, Thome, and Tony Pena. Somewhat surprisingly, there are still some very useful players coming up the pipeline. Teahen will hold down the third base job only until Dayan Viciedo proves himself ready. Even at the outset of 2010, he could get some competition from Brent Lillibridge and Jayson Nix. Williams likely sees Teahen as Mark DeRosa-lite, a guy who is a fair starter at several positions, but most useful as insurance against injuries and fatigue, a guy who's best served getting three or four starts a week.

The White Sox catcher of the future is Tyler Flowers. He could start sharing time with A. J. Pierzynski this coming season, depending largely on how the volatile Pierzynski responds. A. J. probably knows his memorable tenure in Chicago will be over when his contract expires next winter. A. J., know affectionately on the South Side as "Ass, Jack" could respond in one of two ways, either by treating Flowers as promising protege or potential saboteur. Want to make a bet?

The White Sox best youngsters are pitchers. They can safely part ways with Dotel and perhaps even consider trading Bobby Jenks (who is getting a bit expensive) knowing that D. J. Carrasco, Matt Thorton, and Tony Pena all have closer potential, and prospects Jhonny Nunez, Clevelan Santeliz, and Jon Link are ready to step into the middle innings. The White Sox Opening Day rotation is set, barring injury - Buehrle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, and Freddy Garcia - a very formidable staff, but if somebody struggles or falls ill, as almost inevitably happens, they have not only Clayton Richard, who posted a very admirable 9-5 record and 4.42 ERA as a starter in '09, but also Lucas Harrell and Dan Hudson. The Old Dominion alum, Hudson, drafted in '08, surged through the minors, seemingly getting better as he went, then made two decent starts (11 IP, 3 ER) with the big club in September. He will probably get the first crack at a rotation spot.

Finally, Williams and Guillen will have to figure out what to do at the top of the order. Assuming Quentin and Rios return to form, they will offer a lot of pop, alongside Konerko and Ramirez, in the middle of the lineup, but Chicago will need to put people on base in front of them. Gordon Beckham will likely hit second. He sees a fair number of pitches and doesn't strike out a lot, but he doesn't offer incredible speed or OBP. As such, the White Sox could help shape the market for this year's premier leadoff men, namely Chone Figgins and Johnny Damon, or they may got the cheap route and take a chance by trading for Juan Pierre or Wily Taveras.

Despite a somewhat disappointing finish in '09, it's not a bad time to be a White Sox fan.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Juan Pierre (L)

2B Gordon Beckham (R)

LF Carlos Quentin (R)

1B Paul Konerko (R)

DH Vladimir Guerrero (R) FA

RF Alex Rios (R)

C A. J. Pierzynski (L)

3B Mark Teahen (L)

SS Alexei Ramirez (R)

SP Mark Buehrle (L)

SP Jake Peavy (R)

SP John Danks (L)

SP Gavin Floyd (R)

SP Freddy Garcia (R)

CL Bobby Jenks (R)

SU J. J. Putz (R)

SU Tony Pena Jr. (R)

SU Scott Linebrink (R)

LOOGY Matt Thorton (L)

SWING Dan Hudson (R)

MOP Jhonny Nunez (R)

C Tyler Flowers (R)

IF Omar Vizquel (S)

IF/OF Mark Kotsay (L)

OF Andruw Jones (R)

Why the Jays are this year's Rays...

This can't be for real, right? It is just a matter of time until they fall back to fourth place, where they belong, right? Maybe the best fourth place team in baseball, but fourth place nonetheless. Nobody predicted this, right? Wrong.

If you check my column from March, "The Raging Jays," you'll find that I've been on the Blue Jays bandwagon for quite some time. In fact, last year I predicted that they would finish ahead of the Yankees (although I didn't figure that would still mean third place, behind the Rays). And I see no reason to second-guess myself now. In fact, it is quite possible that there is nowhere to go but up. After all, Toronto's AL-best record has been achieved without a single win from Jesse Litsch or David Purcey (the #2 and #3 starters going into the season). It was managed despite the fact that B. J. Ryan blew a pair of saves and couldn't find 90 MPH on the radar gun before he went to the D.L. and despite the fact that the team's best hitter, Alex Rios, has started the year hitting .248 with a 670 OPS.

Sure it may be fair to suggest that it is unlikely that Aaron Hill (.376, 5 HR, 989) and Adam Lind (.320, 5 HR, 957) will maintain their current paces. And 29-year-old rookie Scott Richmond (3-0, 2.70) isn't going to go undefeated. The Jays will suffer some cold streaks and they will be battling for a playoff spot down to the very end. But that's my point, they aren't going away. Yesterday they brought up Robert Ray and Brett Cecil to replace Purcey and Brian Burres, who had combined to go 0-4 with an 8.44 ERA in seven starts. Cecil hasn't exactly been gangbusters so far this season, but last year he went 8-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 129 K in 118 IP at three minor-league levels. He's only 22 and undoubtedly one of the top pitching prospects around. Ray is a little older (25) and not as dominant (132 K in 167 IP in 2008), but still a legitimate candidate for the back-end of a big-league rotation. It is reasonable to expect that they will be improvements on the pitchers they replace. Later this month Litsch, Ryan, and Ricky Romero will return from the D.L., further bolstering the pitching corps. Around the same time Shaun Marcum will begin a minor-league rehab assignment, putting him on course to rejoin the team in the second half. Marcum may not immediately be the pitcher he was before Tommy John (9-7, 3.39, 1.16 WHIP in '08), but he gives the Jays an additional option at the back-end of the rotation or in the middle innings. Similarly, Dustin McGowan, another major contributor in the staff that was best in baseball last season, could be ready to pitch sometime late in the year. It looked like a rag-tag bunch going into the year, now there appears to be some depth, although more injuries and/or setbacks could still be prohibitive.

Depth is of course essential to any team attempting to survive in the toughest division in baseball. Boston and Tampa Bay would not have made it to the postseason last year if it hadn't been for contribution by guys like Jed Lowrie, Willy Aybar, Justin Masterson, and Eric Hinske, all of whom stepped up and played well when major contributors missed time. The Jays bench will need to do the same and early indications are that they can. Kevin Millar has hit .350 in limited ABs. Jose Bautista is a hot prospect who never lived up to his billing in Pittsburgh, but could play 2B, 3B, or OF and hits for decent power. Right now he is hitting .310. John McDonald is, of course, one of the flashiest defenders around, more that an adequate replacement for Aaron Hill or Marco Scutaro defensively, which is critical.

Remember, the Rays were among the top defensive teams in baseball last year, led by great gloves up the middle. The Jays, currently leading the AL in Fielding Percentage, are similarly constructed. Rios (#2), Hill (#7), McDonald (#10), Rod Barajas (#4), and Scott Rolen (#5) are all rated as top ten fielders at their position according to John Dewan's FIELDING BIBLE, and Scutaro, Vernon Wells, and Lyle Overbay are just shy of being premier defenders as well. Only Travis Snider, well hidden in left field, can truly be considered a butcher.

Besides Cecil and Snider, their are a couple prospects to look out for later in the season. J. P. Arencibia is currently catching at AAA. In two stops last year the 23-year-old first-rounder out of Tennessee hit 27 HR with an 850 OPS. He could see time if Barajas struggles, or even at DH if Lind or Snider were to go down. Toronto's first-round pick from last year, David Cooper, also showed considerably skills in his half-season debut, hitting .333 with a 901 OPS. If he can continue at close to that clip at AA, he could make his debut in the second half.

Perhaps most importantly, after years of suffering under the ineptitude of John Gibbons, who was blessed with arguably better teams, the Jays have turned the reigns over to Cito Gaston, who has quite clearly improved the hitting approach throughout the lineup and has shown belief in his talented young players. First place is a familiar position for Gaston, who guided the Jays to their back-to-back championships in the early 90s. Like Joe Maddon of the Rays, he has captivated the entire clubhouse and has the Jays focusing on factors they can control and not thinking about the Yankees and Red Sox. That said, a major test comes in the middle of May when Toronto plays nine straight against the Yanks, Red Sox, and White Sox, arguably the three best clubs in the AL.

(Look, an entire column about the Jays and I didn't even mention Doc Halladay, who, in case you haven't heard, is the best pitcher in baseball.)

What September means for April...

There are two teams in the AL this September that nobody wants to face.  No, not the Red Sox, nor the Angels.  These two teams don't have any chance at making the postseason.  The New York Yankees are not one of them, nor the Detroit Tigers, despite the powerful lineups they boast.  The hottest teams in baseball at the moment are the Cleveland Indians and the Toronto Blue Jays.  Sure, the extended winning streaks they've put up in recent weeks are a bit fluky, but serious fantasy baseball players should be taking note of the performances which might fly a bit under the radar, but have serious implications for 2009.

Everybody knows about Toronto's pitching staff.  You aren't going to sneak Roy Halladay through your auction or draft, nor A. J. Burnett, nor probably Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan, or even Jesse Litsch.  What made the Blue Jays highly beatable in the first half of the season was their paltry offense.  Vernon Wells was injured, as was Scott Rolen.  Alex Rios and Lyle Overbay slumped.  John Gibbons chose to go with mediocre veterans like Brad Wilkerson and Shannon Stewart instead of trust young players like Adam Lind.  Cito Gaston has not had the same problem.  And the Blue Jays are showing that scoring runs may not be a big an issue for them come 2009.  As a team, the Jays scored 20 more runs in August than in any previous month (that's almost a 20% spike) and they are batting .311 so far in September.   Alex Rios is batting .312 with 9 HR during the All-Star Break, much to the delight of those who "wasted" an early round pick on him.  One of Gaston's first acts as manager was inserting Lind into the lineup everyday.  Lind has rewarded him by hitting .317 with 9 HR, 39 RBI, and an 868 OPS in 64 games since, suggesting that he is definitely a candidate for a breakout season when he turns 25 in 2009.  Vernon Wells has only played about half a season's worth of games, but has managed 16 HR and 66 RBI in that half, proving that his disappointing 2007 was merely a fluke.  Joe Inglett and Travis Snider have also been impressive in limited action.  Expect them to take on larger roles in 2009.  

After trading David Eckstein and Matt Stairs late in the season, Toronto will definitely be in the market for a shortstop and a 1B/OF/DH-type during the offseason, but it is a team with great depth in pitching and very few obvious holes.  Toronto, of course, has the misfortune of playing in the AL East, but I expect them to carry their late-season momentum into next year and make a serious run at contention.

Cleveland also plays in a deep division.  They have been alternating good and bad years since '05.  If the pattern holds, they'll be due for upwards of 90 wins in 2009.  Despite the loss of Sabathia and Byrd, the Indians still have two Aces atop their rotation in Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona, plus a stockpile of high-potential young arms.  They can focus their free agent dollars on solving their bullpen issues and improving the offense, an offense which hasn't been that bad.  They are eighth in the AL in scoring, but that's without Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner.  No team can be expected to be at their best without two middle-of-the-order caliber hitters.  Ben Francisco has had a fairly successful rookie campaign, hitting 14 HR with 51 RBI in only 400 AB.  Asdrubel Cabrera and Franklin Guttierrez took modest steps backward, but still look like promising players.  Sizemore is a legit MVP candidate and Jhonny Peralta is among the most underrated players in baseball.  All of these guys should be on your radar next spring, as should Matt LaPorta and Michael Aubrey, prospects that might earn starting roles early next year.