BBWAA Drinks Michele Bachmann's Bathwater (or, Cooperstown, Arizona)

As Ken Burns' Tenth Inning documentary so subtly points out, if we weren't so inclined to call the last two decades of baseball history "The Steroid Era," they would most certainly be defined by the influx of immigrant ballplayers - from Europe, from Asia, and especially from Latin America.  If you demarcate the Steroid Era from the introduction of the "Bash Brothers" (1987) to the retirement of Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds (2007), you see a heretofore unparalleled degree of Hispanic talent.  The Nineties and Naughties were for Latino players and fans what the '50s and '60s had been for African-Americans.

When the "Puerto Rican Jackie Robinson," Roberto Clemente, died bringing supplies to Nicaraguan earthquake victims in the winter of 1973, the BBWAA rightly held a special election, the first and still the only of its kind.  They enshrined Clemente without the usual five-year waiting period.  However, since that time the BBWAA's recognition of Hispanic players has been relatively sparing.  When Roberto Alomar takes the stage in Cooperstown this summer, he will be only the fifth Latino voted in by the BBWAA.  That's right, in nearly forty years the BBWAA has found only five Hispanics worthy of induction: Juan Marichal ('83), Luis Aparicio ('84), Rod Carew ('91), Tony Perez ('00), and Alomar ('11).  A handful of other deserving Hispanic stars, most notably Orlando Cepeda, had to find their way into the Hall through the back door (a.k.a. The Veterans Committee), which only further highlights the BBWAA's distressingly prejudicial track record.

But that's about to change, right?  Alomar is but the first of the floodtide of Puerto Rican, Domincan, Venezuelan, and Cuban megastars who came to dominate the game during the Clinton-Bush decades and will eventually wash up on the Elysium shores of Cooperstown.  Their entrance into the Hall cannot be denied, right?

Not so fast.

You see, one of the dirty little secrets about the tacit ban of PED-abusers being enforced by the BBWAA voters is that it cuts broadly swatches in the Latin-American baseball legacy.  I'm not saying that's it's overt aim, but it is what's happening.  And, when it comes to prejudicial treatment, rationales generally don't carry much water.  Yes, Bonds and Clemens grab more headlines and have been the subject of more legal prosecution (or persecution, depending on how you look at it), but their notoriety, coupled with that of Mark McGwire, may mislead us into seeing this as a black and white issue (pardon the horrible pun).

It always feels a little dirty breaking things down along racial lines, but I think it's necessary to see what I'm taking about.  In the wake of Jeff Bagwell's poor showing, it seems clear the BBWAA intends to stigmatize not only convicted and/or admitted abusers, but also those who have been indicted by widespread rumor.  Here's a rough list of Hall of Fame candidates (let me emphasize, some of these guys would be borderline cases, even without the PED issue) who have been branded with the Scarlet S:

African-American:

Barry Bonds*
Gary Sheffield*

Caucasian:

Roger Clemens*
Mark McGwire*
Jeff Bagwell
Jason Giambi
Andy Pettitte
Kevin Brown

Hispanic:

Alex Rodriguez*
Sammy Sosa*
Manny Ramirez*
Rafael Palmeiro*
Ivan Rodriguez*
David Ortiz
Juan Gonzalez
Jose Canseco
Miguel Tejada
Luis Gonzalez

*Denotes lock for enshrinement if it weren't for PED allegations.

No doubt there will be additions to this list in the intervening years.  Every voter who sees himself as a "moral policeman" has probably already passed judgement on a few players who the general public may not even suspect.  What I want to draw your attention to is the "stars."

Were it not for the stigma of PEDs, we would, over the next decade, be seeing the Hispanic "wing" of the Hall of Fame adding as many members as it did in the entirety of the previous century.  In fact, with guys like Pedro Martinez, Vladimir Guerrero, Omar Vizquel, and Mariano Rivera also gaining eligibility sometime in the relatively near future (none, so far as I know, has yet been linked to PEDs), we could've seen the total Latino contingent as much as tripling in size during the early part of the 21st century.

No place was more associated with the revolution of Latino baseball than the Dominican Republic.  Most now regard the island as the greatest concentration of baseball talent in the world.  As yet, however, there is only one Dominican Hall of Famer, Juan Marichal.  No Dominican position players have been inducted.  Sammy Sosa, who self-consciously took the mantle of "Dominican Clemente," was supposed to change that.  In terms of power-hitting, his five season stretch from '98 to '02 is unparalleled in history.  He leads all Dominican-born players in homers.  But, unless something changes, he won't be in the Hall of Fame.

Nor will Manny Ramirez, possibly the greatest hitter of the Dominican Immigration Era (I'd argue Albert Pujols, but Manny did get a seven-year headstart, making him more of a groundbreaker).  By the end of this season, Manny will lead all Dominican players in hits, runs, doubles, walks, and RBI.  Yet we may have to wait until five years after Pujols retires (2025? 2030?) to see the induction of a Dominican hitter.    

Pudge Rodriguez will likely be the first catcher to 3000 hits.  He was the best of a generation of Latino backstops who revolutionized the position, including Benito Santiago (Puerto Rico), Tony Pena (Dominican Republic), Sandy Alomar Jr. (P.R.), and the Molina brothers (P.R.).  Prior to late '80s, it was totally normal to give Gold Gloves to fat white catchers who didn't throw anybody out.  Then stuff like this started happening routinely.  It's not exaggeration to say Puerto Rican catchers changed the game; however, the BBWAA probably won't find room for a Puerto Rican catcher in Cooperstown.

Rafael Palmeiro was born in Havana, Cuba in 1964.  It wasn't the most important thing that happened in Cuba that year.  But he became, far and away, the most successful Cuban hitter in Major League Baseball history, only the fourth player (of any nationality) to get 3000 hits and 500 homers.  But there's no room for this defector in Cooperstown.

Over the next decade Alex Rodriguez will take aim at several major records.  When he retires, he will be included in the "greatest ever" discussion, alongside Ruth, Bonds, and Mays.  He'll be the first player of Hispanic descent to enter into that conversation.  But, unless something changes, he won't be in the Hall of Fame.

For a long time now, baseball has been a global game.  Hell, MLB has been actively touting itself as such for at least a decade.  Yet, for some odd reason, from 2001 to 2010, during a decade defined by globalization, the BBWAA voted in eight white guys and eight black guys, all born in the United States. That ratio has got to change, but a contingent of patronizing writers within the BBWAA have found a way to assure that it won't, at least not as drastically as it should.

In 21st-Century America, we are sensitive to accusations of racism, which is, perhaps, a good place to start.  But it doesn't mean we aren't racist.  When we want to drum up racist or nativist sentiments, we rail against illegal immigrants, welfare mothers, the uneducated and unemployed, drug abusers, and terrorists.  It isn't our fault that most of the people who make up these criticized constituencies happen to be minorities.  If they happen to observe that their minority status may be the precursor to lack of opportunity, education, etc. which is the stated grounds for their persecution, we call it "perceived racism."  There is no such thing.

The BBWAA has to ask themselves, when history looks back at their moral crusade, what will the Scarlet S really stand for.

Plowing The Depths of the Designated Hitting Market

When the week began, the only question remaining for the Hot Stove season was how to sort out the plethora of defensively-challenged veterans still looking for work.  You could've had your pick of players with Hall of Fame (or, at least, borderline Hall of Fame) credentials, including Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Johnny Damon.  As the week comes to a close, it looks like they've all been signed (or are on the verge of signing) and several teams are faced with the need to creatively distribute at-bats.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Only a handful of the self-anointed "idiots" who broke the Curse of the Bambino in 2004 are still bouncing around the major leagues.  Two of the most recognizable players from that legendary team, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, brought their talents back to the AL East this morning by signing one-year deals with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Both are coming off severely disappointing seasons:

Damon: .271/.355/.401, 145 G, 81 R, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 11 SB
Ramirez: .298/.409/.460, 90 G, 38 R, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB

However, the Rays can certainly find evidence of remaining skills (especially in the OBP department) and may hope that giving them the opportunity to stick it to their former teams will further motivate the former superstars.

ESPN is speculating that Damon, coming of a year in which he spent the majority of his time at DH for the Tigers, will get the bulk of the innings in left field, while Manny concentrates exclusively on his hitting.  It is certainly true that, while both are suspect fielders, Damon is the preferable option.

However, what has gone largely uncommented upon, at least thusfar, is the extent to which this complicates Tampa Bay's roster math.  There has been some dramatic turnover on the Rays since they got knocked out of the playoffs last October.  Among hitters, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rocco Baldelli, and Willy Aybar have all been jettisoned.  Only a few things about the 2011 Rays lineup seem certain.  Evan Longoria, presuming his health, will start every game at third base.  Ben Zobrist will also play nearly everyday, wherever he is asked.  John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach will share the catching duties.

The remaining six lineup spots will presumably be shared by some combination of Ramirez, Damon, B. J. Upton, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, and Leslie Anderson.  That's right, there may not be enough roster spots for all these guys, especially of the Rays need to carry extra relievers in the early weeks of the season.  The Spring Training competition could get pretty heated.

If you've read this blog at all, you're aware that I consider depth to be one of the foremost necessities of a competitive franchise, so Andrew Friedman has clearly done his manager a great service with these cost-effective signings.  Joe Maddon has a great track record for finding a sizable share of at-bats for everybody on his bench and he like to play matchup baseball.  It's worth pointing out, the above list of players features four lefties and five righties.

I wouldn't assume that Damon (L) and Ramirez (R) are everyday players.  Tampa Bay has generally put a high priority on defense, and there's no doubt that their best defensive alignment features Upton, Jennings, and either Zobrist or Joyce in the outfield.

This move should, however, light a fire under Jennings.  Most had assumed Jennings would open 2011 as a starter, but Tampa has frequently looked to slow down the arbitration clock on their top prospects by promoting them in May or June.

I'd also direct your attention to these splits from 2010:

Brignac (2B/SS): .224 AVG/654 OPS v. LH, .263 AVG/701 OPS v. RH
Rodriguez (2B/SS/OF): .282 AVG/824 OPS v. LH, .231 AVG/629 OPS v. RH
Joyce (1B/OF/DH): .190 AVG/774 OPS v. LH, .246 AVG/843 OPS v. RH
Johnson (1B/DH): .343 AVG/1068 OPS v. LH, .170 AVG/.696 OPS v. RH

Now, these are young players (except Johnson) who had only limited playing time in 2010, so the sample sizes are small and therefore suspect, but you can see the possibility of Maddon exploring platoons (good news for Rays fans, bad news for fantasy owners).

Toronto Blue Jays:

Alex Anthopoulos appears to have pulled off the biggest swindle since A. J. Pierzynski spent an unhappy year in San Francisco.  Yesterday, he sent Vernon Wells and $75 Million of remaining salary to the Los Angeles Angels (of Desperation Valley) for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.  The evisceration of Tony Reagins commenced the moment this deal was announced.  Anthopoulos couldn't have given Wells away to any of the other 28 GMs.  But, instead of lingering over the creative destruction of one of the most successful franchises of the last decade (in 2011, the Angels owe approximately $60 Million, which is the Blue Jays entire payroll, to Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Gary Matthews Jr.), I want to concentrate on the somewhat odd situation this creates for Toronto.

The Jays now feature five players - Napoli, Rivera, Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion - who are, to put it mildly, defensive liabilities.  Anthopolous has basically fielded an entire roster of DHs.  And I'm not even considering the fact that early scouting reports are very skeptical about the glovework of young Travis Snider and J. P. Arencibia.

The Jays are sluggers (#1 in HR, SLG% in 2010), but they are also slugs (28th in SB), and the loss of Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, and John Buck (actually some of their better defensive players) isn't going to change that.  Lind, who made 120 starts at DH last year, is slated to be their new first-baseman (he's logged a total of 76 innings there in his career).  Bautista will reprise his role as a utilityman of the Paul Molitor variety (a.k.a. he plays many positions poorly).  The Jays manager will daily debate whether he prefers Rivera and his -7.5 UZR in LF or Encarnacion and his -11.5 UZR at 3B.  Napoli (24% CS) and Arencibia (28% CS in minors) will take turns letting AL speedsters run wild.

None of this is intended as derision toward Anthopoulos.  He's pumped up the offense while slashing the payroll.  One can easily imagine the Jays and their solid corps of young talent developing into contenders while somebody else is still paying the outrageous contracts of Wells and Alex Rios (both through 2014!).

Up the middle, the Jays have actually improved via the quiet acquisitions (during the 2010 season) of Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar. Nevertheless, there will probably be some Bad New Bears reenactments as Toronto tries to find someplace on the field to hide all their brawny bashers.

Minnesota Twins:

The good news for Twins fans is that Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, both of whom played major roles in last year's 94-win campaign, are back for another go-round.  The bad news is that means Jason Kubel will be forced to reprise his role as "outfielder."  Anybody who watched the Twins play with any regularity last season will not be surprised to discover these stats:

Denard Span: 1349 INN, 6.3 UZR (#4 among 15 AL CF)
Delmon Young: 1277 INN, -9.7 UZR (#13 among 14 AL LF)
Jason Kubel: 670 INN, -8.8 UZR (#15 among 16 AL RF)
Michael Cuddyer: 539 INN, -8.5 UZR (#14 among 16 AL RF)

Yes, their corner outfield defense was abyssmal, easily the worst in either league.

Last year, this shortcoming was balanced, at least in part, by the fact that J. J. Hardy (#3 among AL SS in UZR) and Orlando Hudson (#2 among AL 2B in UZR) were outstanding middle-infielders.  Minnesota must hope they can get similar defense from Alexi Casilla (-7.9 UZR/150 in 1998 career innings at 2B) and rookie shortstop, Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

Offseason Prospectus #14: The Los Angeles Dodgers

The conventional wisdom this offseason has been that L.A. has not and will not be a major player in the free agent market because of the messy divorce proceedings between owner, Frank McCourt, and his wife and former Dodger CED, Jamie McCourt. I don't care to speculate too much regarding this subject, except to say, it is probably in the best interests of the franchise if Jamie is awarded the team when all is said and done. She is clearly more familiar with the daily operations of the franchise and perhaps more dedicated to the teams success (as she has made it her sole priority since 2004). Since the McCourts took over, the Dodgers have had only one losing season and, under the leadership of Paul DePodesta (GM '04-'05) and Ned Colletti (GM '06-Present), as well as Jim Tracy (Manager '04-'05), Grady Little ('06-'07), and Joe Torre ('08-Present) they have made four playoff appearances and assembled perhaps the best collection of homegrown stars in all of baseball.

Ponder this list for a few moments:

RHSP Chad Billingsley (25) Drafted in 2003 (1st Round)

RF Andre Ethier (28) Drafted in 2003 (2nd Round)

OF Xavier Paul (25) Drafted in 2003 (4th Round)

CF Matt Kemp (25) Drafted in 2003 (6th Round)

SS Chin-Lung Hu (26) Signed in 2003 as Amateur Free Agent

1B James Loney (26) Drafted in 2002 (1st Round)

RHRP Jonathan Broxton (26) Drafted in 2002 (2nd Round)

LHSP James McDonald (25) Drafted in 2002 (11th Round)

C Russell Martin (27) Drafted in 2002 (17th Round)

IF Tony Abreu (25) Signed in 2002 as Amateur Free Agent

RHRP Ramon Troncoso (27) Signed in 2002 as Amateur Free Agent

RHRP Ronaldo Belisario (27) Signed in 1999 as Amateur Free Agent

LHRP Hong-Chih Kuo (28) Signed in 1999 as Amateur Free Agent

I think it's safe to say the Dodgers would not have gone to the NLCS the last two years without this collection of talent. Nobody on this list is older than 28, and yet there are four All-Stars, two Gold Gloves, and three Silver Sluggers. They make up a significant portion of the everyday lineup (Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin), provide arguably the Ace of the pitching staff (Billingsley), and almost the entirety of the bullpen, which was, in '09, the best in baseball.

So, the McCourts and Ned Colletti deserve some commendations right? Well, yes, they did have a significant hand in developing these players, but all of them were acquired prior to the McCourts purchasing the Dodgers, by the man they fired as GM, Dan Evans. Evans, who now heads up West Coast Sports Management, deserves a great deal of the credit for the Dodgers recent success and may be one of the more underrated general managers of the Moneyball era. In addition to the guys on this list, he was also responsible for drafting Edwin Jackson (who Colletti later traded to Tampa Bay for Lance Carter and Danys Baez) and for engineering several trades which gave the Dodgers a great deal on long-term financial flexibility (sending away Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, Eric Karros, Mark Grudzielanek, Paul Lo Duca, Juan Encarnacion, Devon White, etc.). Obviously, trading away veterans (or letting them walk, as he did with Chan Ho Park) didn't make Evans particularly popular with the Dodgers fan base, but it is hard to cite a case (except maybe Sheffield's) where he unloaded somebody who proved toe be worth what they were being paid over the next several seasons. And in the process, Evan stocked the farm system to the incredible degree which is paying dividends for his successors.

Then again, Evans also signed Darren Dreifort to five years and $55 Million.

Free Agents:

C Brad Ausmus (40)

2B Ron Belliard (34)

IF Juan Castro (37)

RHSP Jon Garland (30)

2B Orlando Hudson (32)

IF Mark Loretta (38)

RHRP Guillermo Mota (36)

LHRP Will Ohman (32)

RHSP Vicente Padilla (32)

RHSP Jason Schmidt (36)

DH Jim Thome (39)

RHSP Jeff Weaver (33)

LHSP Randy Wolf (33) [Signed w/ Brewers]

Arbitration Eligible:

Chad Billingsley (25) RHSP

Jonathan Broxton (26) RHCL

Andre Ethier (28) RF

Matt Kemp (25) CF

Hong-Chih Kuo (28) LHRP

James Loney (26) 1B

Russell Martin (27) C

Jason Repko (29) OF

George Sherrill (33) LHRP

ETA 2010?:

IF Ivan DeJesus Jr. (23)

IF Chin-Lung Hu (26)

RHRP Josh Lindblom (23)

RHRP Jon Link (26)

RHSP Ethan Martin (21)

C Lucas May (25)

OF Xavier Paul (25)

Although the Dodgers have a great core of players in place, one can see by the length of their free agency list that this isn't the best offseason to be standing pat. However, they may have no other choice. If that's the case, the continued success of the team will be dependent on the advancement of the prospects drafted by DePodesta and Colletti. So far, only Clayton Kershaw and Blake DeWitt have made any impression at the major-league level.

The primary source of anxiety for Dodgers fans is the rotation. Although the pitching staff was among the best in the league for the bulk of 2009, the young arms of Billingsley and Kershaw faded down the stretch and especially in the postseason. The most durable and consistent pitcher from the '09 rotation, Randy Wolf, is gone, having signed with Milwaukee, so the Dodgers need a fully healthy Hiroki Kuroda and more consistency from the young guns. At the back end, Joe Torre may be holding open auditions. Scott Elbert, James McDonald, and the knuckleballer, Charlie Haeger, were all starters throughout their minor-league careers, but adapted well to bullpen roles in '09. All are still in their mid-twenties, capable of making big strides. They will probably get long looks as starters during Spring Training. As will Ethan Martin. The 15th pick in the '08 draft hasn't pitched above A ball, but the Georgia alum should move relatively rapidly through the system, both due to maturity and the franchise's desperation.

The starting lineup is set at every position but second base, as both Orlando Hudson and Ron Belliard became free agents. Joe Torre seems comfortable handing a starting job to Blake DeWitt, a converted third baseman, who served the franchise well as a utility man in '08 and '09. If that experiment goes poorly, the Dodgers will turn to middle-infield prospects like Chin-Lung Hu and Ivan DeJesus Jr.

The Dodgers success in '09 depends most upon Billinsley and Kershaw, but they also need bounceback efforts from Manny Ramirez and Russell Martin. Manny's lack of production might be explained by his suspension, as he still managed an admirable 949 OPS for the season, but the Dodgers will no doubt be concerned by the fact that his OPS numbers declined in every month, from 1154 in April to 792 in the postseason. Russell Martin's precipitous decline is utterly without explanation. After being one of the best catchers in baseball from '06 to '08, Martin went into the tank in '09, managing only a 680 OPS, over a hundred points below his previous career low. Perhaps he was hiding an injury. Perhaps it was just a fluke. Whatever the reason, the Dodgers desperately need the All-Star to be back behind the plate in 2010.

Joe Torre has defied all his doubters since coming to L.A., taking the team to the brink of the World Series in each of his first two seasons. 2010 may be his greatest challenge yet.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

SS Rafael Furcal (S)

CF Matt Kemp (R)

LF Manny Ramirez (R)

RF Andre Ethier (L)

1B James Loney (L)

3B Casey Blake (R)

C Russell Martin (R)

2B Blake DeWitt (L)

SP Clayton Kershaw (L)

SP Chad Billingsley (R)

SP Hiroki Kuroda (R)

SP James McDonald (R)

SP Charlie Haeger (R)

CL Jonathan Broxton (R)

SU George Sherrill (L)

SU Ronaldo Belisario (R)

MR Ramon Troncoso (R)

MR Hong-Chih Kuo (L)

LOOGY Scott Elbert (L)

MOP Cory Wade (R)

C A. J. Ellis (R)

IF Jamey Carroll (R)

IF Chin-Lung Hu (R)

OF Xavier Paul (L)

OF Jason Repko (R)

Quartet One

First of all, welcome a brand-new incarnation of the Hippeaux blog, updated to incorporate a wider variety of Americana. Baseball fans, however, can rest assured that my allegiance to that sport above all others remains undeterred. So, I will bare my 'seauxl' for the first time on the topic of the 2009 free agent class. Here are, in my opinion, the top twelve available players this offseason and a subjective view of which teams might make the best fit.

1. C. C. Sabathia - SP

Although he didn't win another Cy Young, Sabathia was even more dominant this time around then he was in Cleveland a year ago. He became to first pitcher to record 10 complete games and 5 shutouts since Randy Johnson did it ten years ago (interestingly, '98 was the season the Big Unit was traded from the AL to the NL midseason). At only 28, Sabathia has already played in eight full big-league seasons and has never pitched less than 180 innings or tallied less than eleven wins. While I would find it hard to argue that he is a more valuable pitcher than Johan Santana, I think it is now safe to say that they are the only two pitchers in the discussion. The extremes ends of the Sabathia contract have already been delineated. The Brewers offering 5 yrs./$100 Million and the Yankees countering with 6 yrs./$140 Million. However, if money were the only issue, I think it is safe to say we'd already have picture of the big guy holding up pinstripes. Sabathia has thrived the past two seasons as the recognized leader of young, successful teams. Besides the much-discussed factors of wanting to remain in the NL and wanting to be closer to his home on the west coast, I think C. C. is reluctant to play third or fourth or fifth or sixth fiddle to long-time Yankees like Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte. It is clear that he thrives as the workhorse and clubhouse chairperson of an underdog franchise. I'm not saying that Sabathia is a egomaniac who needs to be constantly in the limelight - if her were, obviously, New York would be the place for him - merely that he might prefer a franchise where he has more opportunity to lead.

With that in mind, recent rumors that the Giants are preparing an offer somewhere between what is on the table from Milwaukee and New York seem compelling. On the one hand, the Giants already possess a formidable rotation and would seem best served by committing their free agent dollars to the pursuit of more offense. But, you can never have too much quality starting pitching and Sabathia would be the likable, long-term replacement for Barry Bonds in a way which Barry Zito clearly failed to be and big-ticket bats like Manny Ramirez and Mark Texeira might have trouble duplicating. With Sabathia in the fold, the Giants would also have the option of trading Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez for that middle of the order thunder. Or, they could try to be the San Diego Padres - a hyperbolic emphasis on pitching and defense at the expense of offense - a formula which had a considerable history of success prior to this season.

2. Manny Ramirez - LF/DH

There may be only one place in the country where it is safe to say that Manny won't end up. Obviously, low-budget bottom-feeders like Pittsburgh and Kansas City would be unwise to pursue one player at the expense of filling a multitude of holes, but I could see a wide variety of GMs convincing themselves and their ownership that Manny Ramirez represents the quickest avenue to contention. They need look no further than their recent memories. He carried the Dodgers to the NLCS by batting nearly .400 with a Bonds-like OPS (1232) during the last 2+ months of the regular season, then hit over .500 in October. Only a year prior to that he carried the Red Sox to the World Series by driving in 16 runs during the ALDS and ALCS. Postseason runs are scarce, yet during his 43 playoff games with the Red Sox, Manny accumulated 38 RBI. There is really no case against such a hitter. There are logical openings for him in Seattle, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Texas, Washington, and Baltimore, where he could provide a boost for the fan base and make playoff aspirations seem legitimate. In places like Detroit, Tampa Bay, and all teams in New York, Chicago, and L.A., Manny could be the piece that turns perennial contention into championship fulfillment.

I think it will be a team from the latter group which finally pulls the trigger, becomes willing to offer four years rather than three. And, although I will not rule out of possibility of seeing Manny heading home to NYC, the best fit seem to be the Dodgers, where his eccentric personality was immediately embraced by the franchise and the community, and especially the young, talented players, many of whom probably owned a Ramirez jersey in high school. The front office will defer to Torre, who has plenty of experience dealing with prima donnas.

3. Mark Texeira - 1B

The last two seasons, Texeira has been like a freelance bodyguard. While he put up great numbers of his own after joining Atlanta in '07 and the Angels this season, he was brought on to provide protection for a superstar, Chipper Jones and Vladimir Guerrero, respectively. I expect this pattern to continue. The Angels, obviously, would like to retain his services, as Torii Hunter is the closest thing they have to a cleanup hitter. Boston would like to fill that gaping hole behind Big Papi, because, although Youkilis, Pedroia, Bay, and Drew are all great hitters, none of them profiles with Texeira's (or Ramirez') power. The Yankees will be parting ways with Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, while the health of Posada and Matsui remains in question, so they appear to have gaping holes on either side of A-Rod in the lineup. I expect this to devolve into a New York vs. Boston bidding war, such that Texeira may get the biggest payday this offseason even though he might not be the most valuable player. If Boston wins, New York will redouble their pursuit of Ramirez or, perhaps, try to sign Adam Dunn to play first base. If New York wins, I expect Theo Epstein to look for creative trade possibilities. With Jon Lest, Dice-K, and Beckett ingrained in the rotation, he may be willing to move Clay Buchholz and/or Justin Masterson.

4. Rafael Furcal - SS

Others may disagree, but it is my contention that an excellent defensive shortstop, who can hit near .300 batting leadoff, steal bases, and walk as often as he strikes out is more valuable than a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher like A. J. Burnett or Derek Lowe. I need look no further than Billy Beane's aggressive pursuit of Furcal to know there's some truth to this. Beane is not known for his interest in expensive free agents.

Sure, we can't expect Furcal to hit like he did in April and May (before he got injured) over the course of a full season, but even while shaking off the rust during the playoffs he looked like a solid igniter. Oakland won't be the only team interested and as the price goes up, I expect Beane's eagerness to subside. Joe Torre repeatedly applauded Furcal, even while he was going through his prolonged rehabilitation, so I think it's reasonable to think he might resign with L.A.

He looks good in blue!

It won't go down as the worst trade in their history (there was that fat bitch that built a house in the Bronx), but when you give up a future hall-of-famer who hit .348 last October and has an OPS over 1000 against that Arch-rival AND a pair of major-league ready prospects for a second-tier outfielder who's never played on team that finished above .500...and did I mention you paid for all of it, then you've been had.  Manny's going to sweep the floor with the paltry NL West, while the BoSox scratch for the Wild Card with an injured Papi and a beleaguered bunch of white boys who have no business batting anywhere but fifth.

But let's focus on the positive.  Life is beginning to look real good for the Dodgers.  What's been missing from their lineup for the last two seasons, that intimidating presence, arrived in a big way on Friday night (even though he grounded into a double play in the 9th).  That's not all.  They also got the second consecutive very quality start from the teen phenom, Clayton Kershaw.  The Dodgers already had a lot to be thankful for.  In Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, and James Loney, they have the best trio of 25-and-under hitters outside of Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  They've got the best team ERA in the NL and the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball. They've got Joe Torre and his history of late-season surges.  They've got Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones riding the pine, as the most expensive pinch-hitting/defensive-replacement combo in the history of baseball.  They've got Brad Penny, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, and Takashi Saito due back from the disabled list by the end of the month; a re-infusion of talent unlike anything that's going be passing through the waiver wires.  Most importantly, perhaps, they're playing in a division which can be had for 85 wins.

This is a team which, despite its massive market, has flown under the radar all season, thanks largely to their frankly mediocre play.  Still, they are a mere two games out with two games still to go in a series against division-leading Arizona, whose big deadline acquisition was Tony Clark.  Kemp and Loney are both showing signs of equaling the extraordinary post-break production they put up in 2007, when they combined for a .325 average, 19 HR, and 80 RBI.  Joe Torre's habit of resting Russell Martin by playing him at third base has not only kept his bat in the lineup, but should have him fresher for the stretch drive.  All will benefit from having a cleanup hitter who isn't Jeff Kent.  One would assume, Jeff Kent might also benefit from a little less pressure.

Getting to the postseason, of course, is little more than half the battle.  In Manny, they've got themselves a playoff monster.  But, more importantly, they already had a deep rotation.  Even though they don't possess the 1-2 punch of Milwaukee, Arizona, or Chicago, this team could be a force in October

Hippeaux endorses...(AL)

It may not be as big of a story as Hillary falling in line behind Obama or Romney endorsing McCain, but I'd like to offer my advice on another upcoming ballot, that for the 2008 All-Star Game in New York. The Break is still a month away, but if you, like me, plan on voting about a hundred times again this year, and not exactly consistently, you'd best be getting started.

One thing to keep in mind: I believe that All-Stars should be based not only on the rather short-term performance of the first ten weeks of 2008, but also on the backstretch of the preceding season, which is why the potentially fluky seasons from the likes of Nate McLouth won't influence my vote...not this year. That said, here's my most common ballot.

American League

1B - Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox (.267 AVG-75 R-16 HR-78 RBI-808 OPS-5 SB)

His dugout tantrums haven't endeared him to Manny, which certainly doesn't earn him any extra credit, but you can't argue with Youk's on-field performance. Since the middle of 2007 he's played 117 games at first, eighteen at third, and two in right field and has made a grand total of three errors. Youkilis has been pretty strong at the plate as well, sporting an 808 OPS during that span.

Youk has climbed in front of Justin Morneau by a pretty significant margin in the early voting, so it seems likely that the fans will get this one right, but Youk's biggest advantage, besides playing for the Red Sox, is the surprisingly weak field of first-baggers in the AL. Since July 12 of last season, only one AL first baseman has more than 22 HR and/or more than 84 RBI, that's Carlos Pena, who racked up most of those totals at the end of last year and is currently on the DL. After Youkilis and Pena, the best options are guys like Jason Giambi and Casey Kotchman.

Runner-Up: Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay Rays (.255-81-37-104-934-1)

2B - Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers (.310-102-14-64-827-29)

As much as I'd like to see half-a-dozen Red Sox take the field at Yankee Stadium for the All-Star game, I can't endorse a player who's 8th in the AL in OPS among second-baseman in 2008 and 11th taking into account the second half of last season. Dustin Pedroia is a fine player, but he isn't the best the league has to offer, not by a long shot.

In about five hundred at-bats since the middle of last season, Kinsler has racked up 102 runs (1st), 14 homers (4th), and 29 stolen bases (2nd), to go with an 827 OPS (1st). Pedroia in those categories: 90 (2nd), 9 (7th), 12 (4th), and 742 (11th). Kinsler's is one of the most overlooked performances in the majors this past year, which is why he is 300,000 votes back of Pedroia and barely holding off Robinson Cano. This is an underdog who should be on every ballot you cast.

Runner-Up: Brian Roberts - Baltimore Orioles (.262-82-11-54-777-41)

3B - Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees (.313-93-34-102-1021-21)

Even despite the injury and the modest start (for him) this season, nobody comes close. A-Rod leads all AL players at the hot corner in runs, home runs, RBIs, walks, slugging, and OPS, finishes second in stolen bases and OBP (Chone Figgins) and third in average (Figgins and Mike Lowell).

Runner-Up: Adrian Beltre - Seattle Mariners (.253-76-26-84-763-13)

SS - Micheal Young - Texas Rangers (.326-86-11-76-827-11)

It goes without saying the Derek Jeter is going to take the field in front of his home crowd in mid-July, but Young has been better than him in almost every statistical category, both offensively and defensively, this year especially. Young just wrapped up a 23-game hitting streak during which he hit .339. During the same span Jeter batted .218. This will be Jeter's third consecutive All-Star start. I doubt that I'm the only one hoping it will be his last.

Runner-Up: Derek Jeter - New York Yankees (.291-78-10-56-758-12)

C - Dioner Navarro - Tampa Bay Rays (.310-48-11-56-820-2)

I know this is going to surprise a lot of you, but over the last eleven months Dioner Navarro ranks 2nd among AL Catchers in batting average, RBI, slugging, and OPS, and 3rd in home runs and on-base percentage. Only Jorge Posada is also in the top three in all those categories and his injury may prevent him from catching on his home turf in July. Navarro has been a big part of solidifying the surprising Rays both offensively and defensively, helping to groom and very productive young pitching staff. He deserves recognition, at least as the alternate.

Runner-Up: Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins (.301-61-5-50-798-2)

OF - Magglio Ordonez - Detroit Tigers (.337-83-24-109-944-2), Manny Ramirez - Boston Red Sox (.310-81-24-91-943-1), Josh Hamilton - Texas Rangers (.316-61-22-88-941-2)

It works out quite well for AL manager, Terry Francona, who has a natural left, center, and right fielder to start the game. Manny and Hamilton are nice sentimental picks who have the numbers to back it up and are currently first and second in the voting. Instead of voting in Ichiro or Vlad during somewhat down seasons merely based on reputation, let's go with the guys who's been hands-down the best outfielder in the AL over the past year. Despite his team's struggles so far this year, Magglio has continued to quietly tear the cover off the ball. Since last year's All-Star Game (when he started in left field), Magglio has more RBIs than any player in the AL. More than A-Rod. More than Big Papi. More than everybody in major league baseball except Ryan Braun and Ryan Howard. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances in the AL since the middle of last season he ranks first in batting average and third in OPS (A-Rod, Papi).

Runners-Up: Milton Bradley - Texas Rangers (.328-77-25-75-1063-7)
Nick Markakis - Baltimore Orioles (.311-85-24-90-912-17)
B. J. Upton - Tampa Bay Rays (.289-90-20-89-856-29)

DH - David Ortiz - Boston Red Sox (.307-97-34-108-1013-2)

Big Papi may not return from the DL in time for the All-Star festivities. Milton Bradley would be the perfect replacement, but unfortunately his name isn't on the ballot for the DH position. The runner up will probably be Jim Thome, who also has respectable numbers for the last eleven months.

Runner-Up: Jim Thome - Chicago White Sox (.248-77-34-85-885-1)

That's right, I've got three Rangers, as well as three Red Sox, on my 2008 AL All-Star ballot. The do, after all, lead all of baseball in runs scored. In addition, I expect Milton Bradley to be among the alternates (you hear me, Francona!). As of right now, all but one of my suggestion are ranked one or two (or among the top six outfielders) at their respective positions, so start punching those chads, stuffing those ballot boxes, and creating those fake email addresses. Let's get these guys to New York in July!

The New Nightmare

This weekend two of the best sluggers in baseball will be in Boston, taking aim at the Green Monster.  It's a 3-4 combo featuring a lanky, defensively-challenged, somewhat surly right-handed left-fielder and an intimidatingly large, but ever-smiling, defensively-challenged left-handed first baseman.  It might be one of the best hitting pairs in baseball history.  I know, you may be asking yourself, "Don't these guys play in Boston, like, every weekend?"

Well, no, because I'm talking about Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Since Braun arrived in the majors just less than a year ago, he and Fielder have combined for 84 HR and 232 RBI, significantly more than Manny and Big Papi over the same span (55 HR, 196 RBI).  More than any 3-4 combo in baseball, for that matter, combos like A-Rod/Abreu (58 HR, 227 RBI), Berkman/El Cabayo (74 HR, 225 RBI), and D-Lee/Ramirez (50 HR, 176 RBI).  Moreover, while each of those pairs features two mature players, every one of them over the age of 30, Fielder and Braun have a combined age of 48 years, 6 months, and 3 days.

In other words, together they are younger than recently retired Julio Franco.  

Like Manny and Papi, they have a very strong supporting cast, especially on offense, most of whom are also quite young.  What the Brew Crew doesn't have, is pitching depth, which is why they are likely to get pummeled this weekend by the superior Red Sox team, who will send Beckett, Dice-K, and Wakefield to the mound to face Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva.  Despite a dramatically overhauled mercenary bullpen (Gagne, Riske, Torres, and Mota all signed this past offseason), the Brewers are among the league's worst in blown saves and bullpen ERA (8 BS, 4.37 ERA).  Strangely, despite the continued dominance of Papelbon (2.41, 11 SV) and Okajima (0.93, 9 HLD, 1 SV), Boston's relief corps have been pretty putrid as well (8 BS, 4.56 ERA).  If starting pitching fails to contain these two potent offenses, we could see some real slugfests.  

5 Things I Learned From the 2007 Series

- Regular season broadcasters really aren't that bad.

I often find myself growing frustrated by the inanities of color commentators like Bob Brenly (Cubs) and Rex Hudler (Angels), but I yearn for them when faced with the prospect of watching several games in a row with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. I often find myself wondering if they even pay any attention to the regular season. I know that they are catering to an audience that may only watch baseball in October, but doesn't that make it all the more important that they provide a rich context for what makes the World Series worth watching. I don't expect anybody to be Vin Scully, but based on their broadcast, it's hard to tell if they do any preparation at all. When they do bring up a tidbit of moderate interest, like Manny Ramirez' average with two strikes or Troy Tulowitzki's likely Rookie of the Year candidacy, we get pounded with it at-bat after at-bat, night after night. Baseball is a game of nuance and almost hypnotic attention of detail. The broadcast should help bring that to life for both the baseball novice and the fanatic. Buck only sounds enthusiastic when he's making an ill-timed plug for one of their sponsors. Fox's broadcasters are neanderthals. If Fox wants to raise World Series ratings, I would start with something that they can change, instead of complaining about the prevalence of land-locked franchises in the playoffs. I was pleasantly surprised by the TBS broadcast team during the Division Series and the NLCS. Maybe that's an indication of a welcome change on the horizon.

- Dice-K needs to make some adjustments...and so do the Red Sox.

I was disappointed that Francona elected to remove Dice-K with one out in the sixth in Game 3. He had yet to give up a run, he had only allowed three hits and three walks, and Boston had a six-run lead! However, I did suffer through several of his late-season starts in which everything appeared to going smoothly before he suddenly got lit-up in the middle innings, so I can imagine what Francona was thinking.

I would argue that Dice-K's rookie year has been a success. Perhaps he has not fully lived up to the phenomenal expectations, but he pitched 200 innings, won 16 games, and was among the league leaders in strikeouts. And, there is no reason to believe that next year won't be even better. He is a smart pitcher and a fearsome competitor. I don't think he would've elected to join the MLB if he didn't think it was going to be a challenge. What is critical, I think, is that the Red Sox also make some changes to accomodate his idiosyncratic style and routines. I'm no saying they should be letting him throw 200 pitch bullpen sessions, but maybe they should let him get up to 120 more often. That is what his arm is used to, after all.

- Something really is wrong with the National League.

See previous post.

- Todd Helton deserves all those Gold Gloves, and another one in 2007.

Much has been made of the Rockies defense, and justifiably so. As the postseason wore on, announcers, particularly Buck and McCarver, became more and more enamored with the play of Colorado shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki. Again, justifiably so. However, what often got overlooked, was that the Rockies record-setting team fielding percentage could not have been achieved without Todd Helton. Sure, Helton has the typical lumbering physique of an aging first basemen. His range is not what it used to be. But, he is extraordinarily agile, his footwork is remarkable, and he has an amazing knack for reeling in wayward throws, whether they're in the dirt, over his head, or well off the bag. I think Tulowitzki and third baseman Garrett Atkins are pretty good glove men and they have extremely strong arms, but neither is particularly accurate. They don't have to be.

- Manny Ramirez is underrated.

It's strange to make such a remark about the fourth highest-paid player in the league, who is the clean-up hitter for one the best publicized teams in all of sports, but it's true. Sure, Manny has his adventures in left field, but he also turns in his fair share of web gems, especially when he's playing at home. His throw to cut down Kenny Lofton in a critical situation during Game 7 of the ALCS is a perfect example. Buck and McCarver don't like that his intentionally knocks off his helmet when he's on the basepaths or lingers to admire his atmospheric home runs. We're never going to confuse him with David Eckstein, but Manny doesn't exactly dog it either. His antics, which I can't help but find endearing for the most part, and the increasingly epic persona of David Ortiz, overshadow the fact that Manny Ramirez may be the best pure hitter in baseball right now. He works the count. He has power to all fields. He walks as often as he strikes out. He murders lefties and righties, even the best in the game. He hits situationally. You never see him swinging for the fences in an RBI situation, even though he often ends up clearing them nonetheless. And, of course, he's money when it counts most. In his four postseasons since joining the Sox, Manny is batting .321 with a 980 OPS and 38 RBIs in 43 games.