The first round of fantasy mags has hit the stands and mainstream sources like ESPN, CBS, etc. have started publishing their preseason rankings. Obviously, much will change between now and Opening Day, but I'd like to highlight some relative injustices I'm seeing in my early perusal of these resources. You can also check out my preseason rankings.
Brett Gardner, LF (Yankees) v. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (Red Sox)
After posting a WAR of 5.4 in his first full season - that's good for 5th among AL outfielders, by the way - I don't think anybody would deny that Brett Gardner is a better all-around player than Jacoby Ellsbury. I'll acknowledge, however, that in fantasy there are occasions when it doesn't pay to take the better player and those occasions usually do involve guys like Ellsbury who have the potential to pile up stolen bases at a league-leading clip. This isn't one of those occasions.
Ellsbury is nearly unanimously ranked as a top twenty outfielder (top five in the AL) while Gardner barely breaks the top 50. The Sporting News has Ellsbury valued at double the price of Gardner ($30 v. $15) in AL-only auctions. Here's a few reason why that's ludicrous, starting with the stats for each of their best seasons:
Jacoby Ellsbury '09: .301/.355/.415 - 94 R - 8 HR - 60 RBI - 70 SB - 624 AB
Brett Gardner '10: .277/.383/.379 - 97 R - 5 HR - 47 RBI - 47 SB - 477 AB
As you can see, Gardner's OBP skills aid him in piling up runs at a significantly higher rate than Ellbury, while his HR, RBI, and SB rates are comparable (if Gardner had gotten 624 AB he was on pace for 7 HR, 62 RBI, 62 SB).
600+ ABs are not assured for either of these players, but if I had to bet on one of them reaching that mark, I'd actually take Gardner. Coming off a year in which Ellsbury was riddled with injuries and immersed in clubhouse controversies, there is no guarantee he remains an everyday player. Mike Cameron is still hanging around. Darnell McDonald will be looking to steal at-bats. And Ryan Kalish is a superior offensive talent who proved in the second-half of 2010 that he's on the verge of being major-league ready. While many assume Gardner will again be submitted to a platoon (presumably with Andruw Jones), he actually fared okay against lefties in 2010 (725 OPS). In all likelihood, Jones will frequently spell Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada, or Nick Swisher instead.
What you're looking at is a pair of speedy 27-year-old outfielders, both of whom hit in loaded lineups and have the permanent green light. I can certainly imagine Ellsbury having a solid season and returning to his '09 production, but I think Gardner is, at the very least, comparable and could be available for as little as half the price.
Hippeaux's Rankings: Gardner #29, Ellsbury #30
Curtis Granderson, CF (Yankees) v. Austin Jackson, CF (Tigers)
Remember last winter's blockbuster. Here's how that worked out, based on 2010 WAR:
Yankees: Curtis Granderson (3.6)
Tigers: Austin Jackson (3.8), Max Scherzer (3.7), Daniel Schlereth (0.1)
D-Backs: Ian Kennedy (2.4), Daniel Hudson (2.0), Edwin Jackson (1.8)
Yes, the early returns have been much better for Arizona and Detroit, especially when you consider that the combined salaries of Scherzer, Kennedy, Hudson, and Schlereth are less than what Granderson will make in 2011.
That aside, however, it does not make any sense to rank Austin Jackson ahead of Curtis Granderson on your fantasy draft board. Let's take a look at their second-half splits for 2010, after Grandy got healthy and the league adjusted to the Detroit rookies:
Granderson: .253/.338/.523 - 44 R - 17 HR - 43 RBI - 5 SB - 241 AB
Jackson: .285/.336/.397 - 51 R - 3 HR - 21 RBI - 13 SB - 305 AB
Jackson posted the highest BABIP in the majors (.396) and the 5th highest strikeout rate in the AL (27.5%), both of which suggest he's a prime candidate for the dreaded sophomore slump. Meanwhile, Granderson will hit in the midst of a thunderous lineup in a ballpark tailored for left-handed power. Given a fully healthy 2011 campaign, he's 30 HR and 90 RBI in the bank, with the potential for more.
Hippeaux's Rankings: Granderson #19, Jackson #52
Garrett Jones, 1B/OF (Pirates) v. Basically Anybody (Anywhere)
He's consistently making the top 60 among outfielders (the Sporting News has him as high as #40) even though he was hardly a replacement level player in 2010 (0.1 WAR). His power (21 HR) makes him fantasy relevant, but only if he's in the lineup...and Pittsburgh seems to have realized his limitations. They signed Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz during the offseason and they'll bring younger, more versatile players like John Bowker, Steve Pearce, Jeff Clement, and Alex Presley to camp. The only way Garrett Jones gets 500 AB this year is if he gets traded to the Mariners.
Meanwhile, guys like Josh Willingham, Pat Burrell, Matt Joyce, Jonny Gomes, Brad Hawpe, and Cody Ross are cheap sources of power with similar skill sets and substantially more upside.
Hippeaux's Rankings: Willingham #45, Gomes #67, Joyce #72, Ross #74, Burrell #76, Jones #90
Chris Young, CF (D-Backs) v. Drew Stubbs, CF (Reds)
Nobody knows what to do with these guys, both of whom are coming off 20/20 seasons and have real 30/30 potential, but are also batting average drains. I've seen them both ranked as high as 12-15 and as low as 40-45.
Finally in the "post-hype" stage of his career, Young was very quietly a top 15 fantasy outfielder in 2010. Entering his fifth full season, Young is that magical age: 27. The age alone is certainly not enough to assure his ascendence among the elite fantasy outfielders. However, there are other positive indicators. He posted a career low strikeout rate in 2010, while keeping his walk rate at a decent level (11.1%), which led to a substantial improvement in OBP (.341). Young will probably always be a free swinger and may never hit .280, but his other talents can shine so long as he maintains this level of patience.
Stubbs started the 2010 season slow and nearly lost his job, but he came on very strong after the break and was on fire for most of the last two months. Over a 47 game stretch he hit .305 with 9 HR, 11 steals, and a 944 OPS. I see more streakiness in Stubbs future. It's a fairly common problem for young power hitters. Like the young Young, Stubbs has not figured out the strikezone. Only Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds struck out at a greater rate (32.7%) among NL hitters and they, of course, hit more homers and drew a lot more walks.
Stubbs played college ball and then spent several seasons in the minors, so he's only about a year younger than Young and shouldn't suffer as drastic growing pains (Young's development included a short return to AAA in 2009), but there will be some.
Hippeaux's Rankings: Young #14, Stubbs #28
Showing posts with label Jacoby Ellsbury. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jacoby Ellsbury. Show all posts
Friday, January 28, 2011
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: "One man's trash..."
The fantasy baseball draft season is officially underway and, as is usually the case, there are few elite players about whom opinions are dramatically split. Here are my thoughts alongside roto projection from four of the more popular outlets: Bill James, ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and Rotoworld.
David Wright - New York Mets - Third Base
Wright has been a consensus first-rounder in each of the last three seasons, but his 10 HR last year in the inaugural season at Citi Field has a number of fantasy pundits shying away. Others see it as perhaps your last opportunity to roster Wright on the cheap during his prime years (Wright is that magical age of 27).
2009: .307, 88 R, 10 HR, 88 RBI, 27 SB
BJAM: .302, 100 R, 23 HR, 99 RBI, 24 SB
ESPN: .304, 104 R, 21 HR, 97 RBI, 25 SB
CBSS: .300, 90 R, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 24 SB
ROTO: .310, 105 R, 28, 102 RBI, 24 SB
All four projections agree that Wright's power bounces back at least to the 20 HR plateau, but most see him nowhere close to the 30+ he hit in '07 and '08 at Shea. Yesterday, Nate Ravitz was arguing that Wright was still a good pick at the end of the first round, ahead of Miguel Cabrera, thanks in part to lack of depth at third base this season, but I don't see it. Cabrera trounces him in at least three of the five categories and Wright's obvious superiority in stolen bases doesn't make up for the outside chance he again falls short of 20 HR and 100 RBI. I've said it before and I'll say it again. In the first round, I want stat-hounds, guys that fill up the scorebook every single year, no matter where they play. I won't reach for Wright until late in the second round.
Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins - First Base
Morneau's season ended early in 2009 as he suffered from some severe back pain, then had to have a bone chip removed from his wrist. Of course, wrist surgeries can be hell on hitters (see D-Lee, Big Papi, etc.), but this procedure was relatively minor. No reconstruction. No torn tendons. No pins. Before Morneau went down, he was on pace to once again be an MVP candidate, with 30 HR and 100 RBI in just 135 games.
2009: .274, 85 R, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 0 SB
BJAM: .282, 91 R, 31 HR, 115 RBI, 0 SB
ESPN: .278, 88 R, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 0 SB
CBSS: .299, 91 R, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 1 SB
ROTO: .286, 88 R, 31 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB
Despite his problems, Morneau still netted his fourth consecutive 100 RBI season and he probably would've stolen a couple MVP votes if he'd stayed healthy to the end. Everything I've read suggests that Morneau is feeling fit this spring and has agreed to take a few more days off in order to keep his back problems from re-surfacing (thank goodness the Twins will finally be playing on real grass). I understand worrying about a power-hitter with Morneau's particular injuries, but in BLOGZKRIEG! he was the 10th most expensive first-baseman, a full $20 behind Prince Fielder. If he's going for under $25 in your standard league, you've got to make that play. In a draft, he should be one of the first 25 players off the table.
Jose Reyes - New York Mets - Shortstop
News of Jose Reyes' thyroid condition should factor into owners' concerns nearly as much as health of his hamstrings, which cost him almost the entirety of 2009. Reyes is, of course, a fantasy monster when healthy, but he hasn't yet taken the field in Spring Training, his health remains a major question mark.
2009: .279, 18 R, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB
BJAM: .285, 113 R, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 57 SB
ESPN: .283, 93 R, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 47 SB
CBSS: .284, 100 R, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 45 SB
ROTO: .289, 110 R, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 44 SB
All I see in those projections is the stolen bases. From '05 through '08 Reyes averaged 65 stolen bases a season. He could single-handedly dominate a category. As such, his value is intrinsically tied to his speed, which might be significantly jeopardized. If he's no longer good for 50+ SB, even if he ups his other numbers a little, he's not a top 25 player. If Reyes is still on the table in the third or fourth round, or for less than $25, he's probably a decent pick, but even then there is risk involved.
Jimmy Rollins - Philadelphia Phillies - Shortstop
Unlike Reyes, Rollins had no problem staying on the field last season, but he had serious problems getting on base (.296 OBP), which of course effected his statistics across the board. Several have suggested it was the beginning of J-Roll's precipitous decline.
2009: .250, 100 R, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 31 SB
BJAM: .271, 104 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 33 SB
ESPN: .273, 103 R, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 32 SB
CBSS: .274, 100 R, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 33 SB
ROTO: .271, 110 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 34 SB
The projections are very similar to Reyes, right? The difference is that while the projections for Reyes are optimistic and assume that he's healthy, the projections for Rollins are more like a baseline. It takes only a modest improvement in batting average and OBP for Rollins to easily surmount those numbers. I don't think that's going to be a problem. Rollins '09 numbers are heavily influenced by a first-half slump. From July 1 on he went .285-59-15-50-21. Project those numbers over a full season and Rollins is once again on a lot of MVP ballot (though maybe not at the top). J-Roll is only 30, still in the middle of his prime, so I think he's got at least a couple more big seasons in him. A second rounder (or $25-$30 at auction) with confidence.
Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox - Outfield
Ellsbury is entering his third full season coming off his second consecutive year of pacing the American League in stolen bases. He's only 26-years-old and in '09 he improve upon his rookie year in almost every major indicator. In AL-only leagues and deep leagues (15+ teams) he's frequently taken in the first round, with the assumption that we haven't yet seen the limits of his skills.
2009: .301, 94 R, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 70 SB
BJAM: .302, 106 R, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 64 SB
ESPN: .296, 92 R, 7 HR, 58 RBI, 62 SB
CBSS: .285, 95 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 54 SB
ROTO: .296, 106 R, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 57 SB
As you can see, these are the most disparate of any of the projections we've looked at. The thing I keep asking about Ellsbury is, "How is it that a guy hitting atop the Red Sox lineup, getting 700 plate appearances a year, hasn't scored 100 runs yet?" Ellsbury's walk rate is a little worrisome, especially against right-handed pitching. More worrisome for potential fantasy owners is the fact that Ellsbury faces competition for both the leadoff spot (Marco Scutaro) and his position (Mike Cameron, Jeremy Hermida). Obviously, Ellsbury will still be on the field the majority of the time, but he could very realistically lose 75-100 AB this season. An outfield rotation makes the Red Sox a better team. It doesn't bode well for roto stats. I think Ellsbury remains good for 90 R and around 60 SB, which makes him a solid second or third round selection, but I won't reach into Carl Crawford territory until he shows a little more power, or the ability to hit .315.
David Wright - New York Mets - Third Base
Wright has been a consensus first-rounder in each of the last three seasons, but his 10 HR last year in the inaugural season at Citi Field has a number of fantasy pundits shying away. Others see it as perhaps your last opportunity to roster Wright on the cheap during his prime years (Wright is that magical age of 27).
2009: .307, 88 R, 10 HR, 88 RBI, 27 SB
BJAM: .302, 100 R, 23 HR, 99 RBI, 24 SB
ESPN: .304, 104 R, 21 HR, 97 RBI, 25 SB
CBSS: .300, 90 R, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 24 SB
ROTO: .310, 105 R, 28, 102 RBI, 24 SB
All four projections agree that Wright's power bounces back at least to the 20 HR plateau, but most see him nowhere close to the 30+ he hit in '07 and '08 at Shea. Yesterday, Nate Ravitz was arguing that Wright was still a good pick at the end of the first round, ahead of Miguel Cabrera, thanks in part to lack of depth at third base this season, but I don't see it. Cabrera trounces him in at least three of the five categories and Wright's obvious superiority in stolen bases doesn't make up for the outside chance he again falls short of 20 HR and 100 RBI. I've said it before and I'll say it again. In the first round, I want stat-hounds, guys that fill up the scorebook every single year, no matter where they play. I won't reach for Wright until late in the second round.
Justin Morneau - Minnesota Twins - First Base
Morneau's season ended early in 2009 as he suffered from some severe back pain, then had to have a bone chip removed from his wrist. Of course, wrist surgeries can be hell on hitters (see D-Lee, Big Papi, etc.), but this procedure was relatively minor. No reconstruction. No torn tendons. No pins. Before Morneau went down, he was on pace to once again be an MVP candidate, with 30 HR and 100 RBI in just 135 games.
2009: .274, 85 R, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 0 SB
BJAM: .282, 91 R, 31 HR, 115 RBI, 0 SB
ESPN: .278, 88 R, 33 HR, 111 RBI, 0 SB
CBSS: .299, 91 R, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 1 SB
ROTO: .286, 88 R, 31 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB
Despite his problems, Morneau still netted his fourth consecutive 100 RBI season and he probably would've stolen a couple MVP votes if he'd stayed healthy to the end. Everything I've read suggests that Morneau is feeling fit this spring and has agreed to take a few more days off in order to keep his back problems from re-surfacing (thank goodness the Twins will finally be playing on real grass). I understand worrying about a power-hitter with Morneau's particular injuries, but in BLOGZKRIEG! he was the 10th most expensive first-baseman, a full $20 behind Prince Fielder. If he's going for under $25 in your standard league, you've got to make that play. In a draft, he should be one of the first 25 players off the table.
Jose Reyes - New York Mets - Shortstop
News of Jose Reyes' thyroid condition should factor into owners' concerns nearly as much as health of his hamstrings, which cost him almost the entirety of 2009. Reyes is, of course, a fantasy monster when healthy, but he hasn't yet taken the field in Spring Training, his health remains a major question mark.
2009: .279, 18 R, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB
BJAM: .285, 113 R, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 57 SB
ESPN: .283, 93 R, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 47 SB
CBSS: .284, 100 R, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 45 SB
ROTO: .289, 110 R, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 44 SB
All I see in those projections is the stolen bases. From '05 through '08 Reyes averaged 65 stolen bases a season. He could single-handedly dominate a category. As such, his value is intrinsically tied to his speed, which might be significantly jeopardized. If he's no longer good for 50+ SB, even if he ups his other numbers a little, he's not a top 25 player. If Reyes is still on the table in the third or fourth round, or for less than $25, he's probably a decent pick, but even then there is risk involved.
Jimmy Rollins - Philadelphia Phillies - Shortstop
Unlike Reyes, Rollins had no problem staying on the field last season, but he had serious problems getting on base (.296 OBP), which of course effected his statistics across the board. Several have suggested it was the beginning of J-Roll's precipitous decline.
2009: .250, 100 R, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 31 SB
BJAM: .271, 104 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 33 SB
ESPN: .273, 103 R, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 32 SB
CBSS: .274, 100 R, 17 HR, 76 RBI, 33 SB
ROTO: .271, 110 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 34 SB
The projections are very similar to Reyes, right? The difference is that while the projections for Reyes are optimistic and assume that he's healthy, the projections for Rollins are more like a baseline. It takes only a modest improvement in batting average and OBP for Rollins to easily surmount those numbers. I don't think that's going to be a problem. Rollins '09 numbers are heavily influenced by a first-half slump. From July 1 on he went .285-59-15-50-21. Project those numbers over a full season and Rollins is once again on a lot of MVP ballot (though maybe not at the top). J-Roll is only 30, still in the middle of his prime, so I think he's got at least a couple more big seasons in him. A second rounder (or $25-$30 at auction) with confidence.
Jacoby Ellsbury - Boston Red Sox - Outfield
Ellsbury is entering his third full season coming off his second consecutive year of pacing the American League in stolen bases. He's only 26-years-old and in '09 he improve upon his rookie year in almost every major indicator. In AL-only leagues and deep leagues (15+ teams) he's frequently taken in the first round, with the assumption that we haven't yet seen the limits of his skills.
2009: .301, 94 R, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 70 SB
BJAM: .302, 106 R, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 64 SB
ESPN: .296, 92 R, 7 HR, 58 RBI, 62 SB
CBSS: .285, 95 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 54 SB
ROTO: .296, 106 R, 11 HR, 60 RBI, 57 SB
As you can see, these are the most disparate of any of the projections we've looked at. The thing I keep asking about Ellsbury is, "How is it that a guy hitting atop the Red Sox lineup, getting 700 plate appearances a year, hasn't scored 100 runs yet?" Ellsbury's walk rate is a little worrisome, especially against right-handed pitching. More worrisome for potential fantasy owners is the fact that Ellsbury faces competition for both the leadoff spot (Marco Scutaro) and his position (Mike Cameron, Jeremy Hermida). Obviously, Ellsbury will still be on the field the majority of the time, but he could very realistically lose 75-100 AB this season. An outfield rotation makes the Red Sox a better team. It doesn't bode well for roto stats. I think Ellsbury remains good for 90 R and around 60 SB, which makes him a solid second or third round selection, but I won't reach into Carl Crawford territory until he shows a little more power, or the ability to hit .315.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: "American League teams don't even carry five outfielders." (Outfield Preview)
It's a fantasy baseball tradition. The vast majority of leagues require each team to carry five active outfielders. So, while it may appear that that this position is loaded with excellent options at the beginning of your draft, it probably won't feel that way by the time you're making your fourth and fifth selections, especially if you're playing in an AL-only or large mixed league. It's wise to get a stud early (in the first three to five rounds).
This is also one of those positions that doesn't necessarily jibe with the ever-popular "high-risk/high-reward" strategy. Sure, I'll advocate a good many young up-and-comers, as I would at any position, but I'm also a big fan of ho-hum veterans that can be had in the late rounds or for very little money. Nobody gets revved up about Hideki Matsui, J. D. Drew, and Jermaine Dye anymore, but for years they have been mortal locks for 20 HR, 150 R + RBI, and an average that won't hurt you. You'll find such numbers quite satisfactory from your fifth outfielder.
Rather than rank 100+ outfielders, I'll provide my top forty and then a few pools of players who are can fulfill certain roles.
1. Ryan Braun (Brewers)
2. Justin Upton (D-Backs)
3. Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
4. Carl Crawford (Rays)
5. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)
No matter how you rank them (I'm probably higher on Upton than most), everybody in this quintet is going to be gone by the end of the second round. You can't go too far wrong with any of them, but the first three are especially scary, as none are older than 26.
6. Nick Markakis (Orioles)
7. Curtis Granderson (Yankees)
8. Grady Sizemore (Indians)
9. Adam Jones (Orioles)
10. Jayson Werth (Phillies)
11. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
This may seem like a reach for some of these guys, but they are all "five-tool" players in their primes, for whom 30/30 seasons are not a terrible stretch. The potential for that kind of across-the-board production makes them very tempting. Choo very quietly had a breakout effort in '09, with 20 HR and 21 SB, to go along with a .300 average and 80+ runs and RBI. With two full seasons under his belt and an improved Cleveland lineup around him, he could turn into an MVP candidate.
As a baseball fan, I hate that Curtis Granderson is a Yankee. But as a fantasy owner, I am downright buoyant. If Johnny Damon can hit 20+ bombs with the help of the new right-field porch in the Bronx, Granderson could have an outside shot at 40. No matter where he hits in the New York order, Grandy is going to see better pitches and have more run-producing opportunities than he did as the leadoff hitter in Detroit.
12. Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners)
13. Manny Ramirez (Dodgers)
14. Carlos Lee (Astros)
15. Jason Bay (Mets)
16. Bobby Abreu (Angels)
None of these guys are spring chickens, but they are still fairly safe plays as your #1 or #2 outfielder. Some people will be wary of Bay because of his move to Citi Field and some will be wary of Manny because of his unusual late-season slump. Let them worry away.
17. Carlos Beltran (Mets)
18. B. J. Upton (Rays)
19. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)
Here is the first tier of "injury risks." There was much ado about Beltran's offseason surgery and the the uncertainty of the timeline for his return. Upton struggled throughout last season and had another operation this past winter. And, of course, Hamilton has been consistently creaky throughout his career. That said, all three of these guys, when happy and healthy, could very easily jump from the top twenty into the top five.
20. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
21. Torii Hunter (Angels)
22. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
23. Hunter Pence (Astros)
A lesser version of the second tier, guys who possess high-end speed and power. McCutchen and Gonzalez are perhaps primed to jump into the top ten, but both will have to prove that the can reproduce (or even improve upon) their second-half surges. Gonzalez was among the best in all of baseball during the waning months of '09, as he hit .320 with a dozen homers and a 992 OPS in about 200 plate appearances after the All-Star Break, then batted .588 (!) in the NLDS.
This is also one of those positions that doesn't necessarily jibe with the ever-popular "high-risk/high-reward" strategy. Sure, I'll advocate a good many young up-and-comers, as I would at any position, but I'm also a big fan of ho-hum veterans that can be had in the late rounds or for very little money. Nobody gets revved up about Hideki Matsui, J. D. Drew, and Jermaine Dye anymore, but for years they have been mortal locks for 20 HR, 150 R + RBI, and an average that won't hurt you. You'll find such numbers quite satisfactory from your fifth outfielder.
Rather than rank 100+ outfielders, I'll provide my top forty and then a few pools of players who are can fulfill certain roles.
1. Ryan Braun (Brewers)
2. Justin Upton (D-Backs)
3. Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
4. Carl Crawford (Rays)
5. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)
No matter how you rank them (I'm probably higher on Upton than most), everybody in this quintet is going to be gone by the end of the second round. You can't go too far wrong with any of them, but the first three are especially scary, as none are older than 26.
6. Nick Markakis (Orioles)
7. Curtis Granderson (Yankees)
8. Grady Sizemore (Indians)
9. Adam Jones (Orioles)
10. Jayson Werth (Phillies)
11. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
This may seem like a reach for some of these guys, but they are all "five-tool" players in their primes, for whom 30/30 seasons are not a terrible stretch. The potential for that kind of across-the-board production makes them very tempting. Choo very quietly had a breakout effort in '09, with 20 HR and 21 SB, to go along with a .300 average and 80+ runs and RBI. With two full seasons under his belt and an improved Cleveland lineup around him, he could turn into an MVP candidate.
As a baseball fan, I hate that Curtis Granderson is a Yankee. But as a fantasy owner, I am downright buoyant. If Johnny Damon can hit 20+ bombs with the help of the new right-field porch in the Bronx, Granderson could have an outside shot at 40. No matter where he hits in the New York order, Grandy is going to see better pitches and have more run-producing opportunities than he did as the leadoff hitter in Detroit.
12. Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners)
13. Manny Ramirez (Dodgers)
14. Carlos Lee (Astros)
15. Jason Bay (Mets)
16. Bobby Abreu (Angels)
None of these guys are spring chickens, but they are still fairly safe plays as your #1 or #2 outfielder. Some people will be wary of Bay because of his move to Citi Field and some will be wary of Manny because of his unusual late-season slump. Let them worry away.
17. Carlos Beltran (Mets)
18. B. J. Upton (Rays)
19. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)
Here is the first tier of "injury risks." There was much ado about Beltran's offseason surgery and the the uncertainty of the timeline for his return. Upton struggled throughout last season and had another operation this past winter. And, of course, Hamilton has been consistently creaky throughout his career. That said, all three of these guys, when happy and healthy, could very easily jump from the top twenty into the top five.
20. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
21. Torii Hunter (Angels)
22. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
23. Hunter Pence (Astros)
A lesser version of the second tier, guys who possess high-end speed and power. McCutchen and Gonzalez are perhaps primed to jump into the top ten, but both will have to prove that the can reproduce (or even improve upon) their second-half surges. Gonzalez was among the best in all of baseball during the waning months of '09, as he hit .320 with a dozen homers and a 992 OPS in about 200 plate appearances after the All-Star Break, then batted .588 (!) in the NLDS.
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