Wandy Rodriguez Is This Year's Cliff Lee?!?

This found its way into by inbox yesterday:

"Last year Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt helped to carry teams into the postseason after being traded at midseason.  Which potential aces could be on the market at this year's deadline?" - Jerry

Thanks, Jerry.  It's an interesting question.

Yes, last year Roy Oswalt was traded from Houston to Philadelphia and his dominance during a stretch of a dozen starts (7-1, 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) was a significant factor in the Phillies late-season push.

Ruben Amaro made a very similar move for Cliff Lee in 2009 and Lee famously went 11-4 for his new franchise, including four wins in the postseason.  Last year, however, Lee's story was slightly different.  He actually struggled (by his standards) in his fifteen regular season starts for the Rangers (4-6, 3.98 ERA), but did manage to make Jon Daniels look pretty good in October.

In 2008, it was C. C. Sabathia who was the mercenary former Indian.  He absolutely carried his new team, the Brewers, into the playoffs with a 17 start run in which he was 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 7(!) complete games.

In the very same year, Rich Harden moved from Oakland to Chicago and went 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 12 starts, helping to guide the Cubs to their best season since the Roosevelt administration.

The upshot of all this is that, like Jerry, we've come to treat the trading of a "mercenary Ace" as a necessary part of the baseball narrative, when, in fact, history shows that the examples cited above are very much outliers.  Could it be that this is a new trend in the 21st-century game that will continue indefinitely?  Perhaps.  But it's also very possible that we see little or no movement of premier starters at the 2011 deadline.

One thing that leads me to this conclusion is that the class of free agent starting pitchers next offseason doesn't feature a marquis name like Cliff Lee or C. C. Sabathia.  Mark Buehrle is probably the best pitcher scheduled to become a free agent to 2012.

Buehrle is certainly capable of having an Oswalt-esque stretch of dominance.  However, the other factor that makes this question hard to answer is that the availability of a Buehrle or a Chris Carpenter is largely dependent on whether their current franchises are still in the playoff mix.  Kenny Williams has certainly managed his offseason like a man who expects to be playing for the AL Central crown in August and September.  If that's the case, the face of the franchise, Mark Buehrle, ain't goin' nowhere.

If there's going to be a "mercenary Ace" in 2011, Carpenter is probably the odds-on favorite.  Carp's current contract features a $15 Million option for 2012.  As good as Carpenter is when he's on the mound, that's a big number for what will be a 37-year-old pitcher with a long injury history.  St. Louis, as you may have heard, has some other very expensive priorities, so it may be sensible for John Mozeliak to leave the tough decision about Carpenter's option to somebody else.

On the other hand, Carpenter is very, very popular in St. Louis.  He's owes a great deal to Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa.  And he has "no-trade" protection.  If he believes St. Louis has a chance of getting themselves back in the playoff picture in the next couple years, he may simple decline to move.

It's not always impending free agents who are involved in these deals.  Lee (in '09) and Oswalt both had additional years when they were traded.  There are certainly scenarios in which one could see Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, Matt Cain, or Tim Hudson being shopped, but all of their teams are entering the season with sincere playoff aspirations.  Even if they were to go on the market, each would command a relatively massive package in return and could end up, like Roy Halladay in 2009, being beyond the reach of interested clubs.

The other possibility is that their is a "once and future Ace" who is on the verge of having a Renaissance season.  Candidates for that mantle would include Jake Peavy, James Shields, and Scott Kazmir.  If they were to return to their former levels of production AND their current franchise fell out of the playoff picture by midseason, you could definitely see them being traded at a price which wasn't wholly insurmountable.

Finally, this gives me opportunity to tout one of the favorite sleeper candidates for 2011.  Wandy Rodriguez of the Houston Astros will be a free agent in 2012.  Certainly, at this moment, nobody thinks of him as analogous to Cliff Lee or C. C. Sabathia, but just two years ago Wandy put up Ace numbers (14-12, 3.02 ERA, 206 IP, 193 K).  His overall performance in 2010 was disappointing (11-12, 3.60 ERA), but don't make the mistake of overlooking his second half.  From June 24th on, a stretch of 18 starts, Way-Rod went 8-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 126 K in 120 IP.  One can imagine how much more press he would've gotten had he been pitching like that for a contender.  The Astros are in rebuilding mode, and at 32, Wandy isn't exactly the kind of guy you build around.  He'll be in motion by the deadline and if he begins 2011 in the fashion he ended 2012, there could be a bidding war.

Narrative Likability Factor & The Philadelphia Phillies

As I write, the Phillies and Roy Halladay have taken a commanding lead over the Nationals and are now about a dozen outs from clinching their fourth consecutive NL East title.  The Phillies were clearly the NL favorites heading into the 2010 season and, sporting the best record in the league following another scorching September, there seems little cause for that to change.  The Phillies have won the last two NL pennants, as well as the World Series in 2008.  The lineup featuring Rollins, Utley, Howard, Werth, and Victorino is as familiar to fans across the nation as those in Boston and New York.  So, it's probably time for somebody else to get a chance, right?  "Likable narratives" don't generally feature dynasties like this.   However, there are still a few reasons to get behind the Phightin' Phils:

•  A Little Piece of History:  If the Phillies represent the NL for the third consecutive season, they will be the first three-peat NL Champs since 1944 (Cardinals).  It's kind of an odd little piece of trivia, but the National League has not featured many true "dynasty"-type ballclubs, with the ability to go the distance year after year after year.  Even the Big Red Machine of the '70s couldn't manage three in a row, nor could the Bob Gibson's Cardinals or the We Are Family Pirates. No NL team in the integration era has done it, so it would be a pretty major accomplishment.
• Injury Sminjury:  Most of the time, when a team that is expected to contend fails to do so, the explanation is a rash of ill-timed injuries.  In just this season, that excuse has been pervasively applied to the Red Sox, Rockies, Cubs, and Mets.  But arguably no team was more flea-bitten this year than the Phils.  Only two players in their starting lineup, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez, will manage to make over 150 starts, while their All-Star middle infielders, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, have each been severely limited (less than 120 games apiece).  Through it all, the Phillies have not allowed themselves to play like an accursed team and they are going to end up posting their best record since 1993.
• Polly, Ribby, & The Wizard of Oz: Placido Polanco, Raul Ibanez, and Roy Oswalt are all long-time major-league veterans who have played in several postseasons and at least one World Series, but haven't yet taken home the ultimate hardware.  The big draw of Philadelphia, for each of them, was the realistic opportunity to chase rings.  These are, by all accounts, gentlemen, each with underdog qualities - Polanco is a scrappy, undersized utility-man, Ibanez was a late-bloomer, Oswalt is short - and they are difficult to root against.
• Doc Halladay:  Now, let me give you your monthly dose of Halladay hysteria.  He's definitely the best active pitcher who has never participated in a postseason game.  He's one of the greatest of all time.  He came to Philadelphia last winter confronted with the utmost of expectations.  With the vaunted Philadelphia offense, he was expected to win 20+ games.  Without the designated hitter, he was expected to throw 250+ innings and have an ERA under 2.50.  And, with his long history of playing in the AL East, he was expected to be Philadelphia's best weapon against the Yankees, Red Sox, or Rays in the World Series.  Well, he just threw a complete-game shutout to clinch the NL East.  In the process, he picked up his 21st win, his 251st inning, and brought his ERA to 2.43.  In the 64 years since baseball was integrated, there have been only 47 seasons of that quality.  So, those were some pretty high expectations.  Now, he's going after the biggest of all.

Much as I love Doc, I don't think I can root for a reigning champ; that is, unless they come up against the other reigning champ, which is obviously where the Vegas money is being laid.  So, the Phils get a little boost for being the most likely dragonslayer.

Narrative Likability Factor: C+

Offseason Prospectus #18: The Houston Astros

Houston's general manager, Ed Wade, made perhaps his biggest splash of the winter this weekend by signing free agent right-hander, Brett Myers, for $5 Million.  Although Wade has been busy throughout the Hot Stove season, Myers is the most reputable addition he's made.  Wade chose, instead of chasing John Lackey, Chone Figgins, or any of the other big-ticket free agents who would've been good fits in Houston, to pursue a handful of less notable complimentary players.  He renovated the bullpen by signing Brandon Lyon (3 yrs./$15 Mil.) and trading for Matt Lindstrom.  He improved his infield defense by adding Pedro Feliz (1 yr./$4.5 Mil.) and allowing Miguel Tejada to walk, so that he could cede shortstop to some combination of Jeff Keppinger and prospects.  Finally, he signed Myers, who despite struggling to stay out of trouble and on the field in Philadelphia, pitched quite well as both a starter and a late-inning reliever.  The Astros would like him to join the rotation, which was their Achillies heel in 2009.

Free Agents:

Brandon Backe (32) RHSP

Doug Brocail (43) RHRP

Chris Coste (37) C [Signed w/ Mets]

Darin Erstad (36) 1B/OF

Geoff Geary (33) RHRP

Mike Hampton (37) LHSP

Latroy Hawkins (37) RHRP [Signed w/ Brewers]

Miguel Tejada (36) SS

Jose Valverde (30) RHCL  

Arbitration Eligible:

Michael Bourn (27) CF

Tim Byrdak (36) LHRP

Jeff Keppinger (30) UT

Hunter Pence (27) RF

Humberto Quintero (30) C

Wandy Rodriguez (31) LHSP

Chris Sampson (32) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Chris Johnson (25) 3B

Tommy Manzella (27) SS

Wladimir Sutil (25) SS

Polin Trinidad (25) LHSP

Unfortunately for the Astros and their fans, Houston posted one of its worst seasons of the decade in 2009, despite having the franchise's largest ever payroll ($103 Million).  Astros County expects Houston will try to roll back that payroll slightly in 2010, to somewhere between $90-95 Million.  The 'Stros do have a fair number of veterans coming off their books, but they still have enormous commitments to Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Lee, as well as sizable arbitration awards coming for Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn.  Astros County thoughtfully argues that the Houston fan base can't expect the franchise to make another commitment this offseason of anything more than $3 Million.  That means even if Ed Wade uses that remaining cash very efficiently, the 2010 Astros are still going to have some gaping holes, especially for a team that hopes to compete with at least three divisional contenders: the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs.


I'll start with some good news.  The Astros rotation will be better than it was in '09.  Granted, it couldn't be much worse.  The '09 'Stros finished with a rotational ERA of 4.79, 14th in the NL.  But there's cause for hope going forward.  Roy Oswalt had the worst season of his career (8-6, 4.12 ERA).  At only 32, he's almost sure to bounce back.  Wandy Rodriguez (14-12, 3.02) continued to trend in the right direction, developing into a solid #2 starter.  He has improved his ERA, WHIP, and K/BB rate in each of the last three seasons, but continues to struggle on the road (4.05 ERA, compared to 2.08 at Minute Maid), which means there's still room for improvement.  Rodriguez remains a somewhat unheralded pitcher and could be a breakout player in '10.


Myers will likely slot into the rotation at #3, followed by Bud Norris.  Norris made ten starts as a rookie, going 6-3 with a 4.53 ERA.  He finished especially strong by going 3-0 in four September starts witha 1.57 ERA, 24 K, and only 6 BB in 23 innings.  Compare that to an August in which he walked 18 batters in 30 innings, causing his ERA to skyrocket (6.98).  If he has indeed solved those control issues, he could be a very solid back-end starter this coming season and a future star.


Yorman Bazardo, Felipe Paulino, Brian Moehler, and Polin Trinidad will also be fighting for starts, and with the exception of Moehler there is reason to believe that all of them have fairly bright futures.  Paulino was very inconsisten in '09, but is still only 26 and showed a solid strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) and was even dominant for brief stretches.  Bazardo and Trinidad are youngsters who have proven themselves in the minors and will look for the opportunity to reach the bigs for good in 2010.


The Astros lineup reminds me a great deal of the '09 Twins.  At the top, their is some serious thunder.  Michael Bourn has developed into solid archetypal center-fielder/leadoff-hitter, whose speed makes him an asset on both sides of the ball, an in '09 he raised his OBP by 70 points, to a respectable .354.  Behind him are Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Hunter Pence, a commendable trio of sluggers who have combined for 75+ HR in each of the last three seasons.  However, as in Minnesota, the bottom of the Astros lineup is a barren wasteland.  Kaz Matsui's OPS dropped to 659 in '09.  Pedro Feliz was only slightly better, at 694, and that was when he was hitting in that mechanism of pitcher fatigue, the lineup of the Philadelphia Phillies.  Behind them there will be J. R. Towles (609 OPS in 234 MLB AB) and either Keppinger (707 OPS in '09) or one of the defensively-minded prospects, Tommy Manzella (756 OPS at AAA in '09) or Wladimir Sutil (673 OPS at AA in '09).  Followed by a pitcher, that means there are five "easy outs" in a row, which will also make it easier for pitchers to avoid Berkman and Lee or attack Bourn and Pence as necessary.  If the Astros are going to have a chance this season, they need one of those "easy outs" to exceed expectations.  The most likely candidates are Matsui, who had a 781 OPS as recently as '08, and Towles, who posted strong OBP numbers throughout the minor leagues.  


The other possibility is that Ed Wade will be able to secure an additional cheap bat from among the disappointed free agents who are still looking for work come Spring Training.  I'm guessing he's keenly following negotiations with Orlando Cabrera and Rod Barajas. 


While the Astros did add two solid relievers this offseason (Lyon and Lindstrom), they also lost one of baseball's best closers (Jose Valverde) and their top set-up man (LaTroy Hawkins).  It will be a major challenge for Lyon and Lindstrom to replace that pair, who combined in '09 for 117 innings, 36 saves, 20 holds, and a 2.21 ERA.  The Astros bullpen was hardly lights out even with Valverde and Hawkins (4.13 ERA in '09), so Houston needs somebody to make a BIG step forward and protect leads for their improved rotation.  Jeff Fulchino (3.40 ERA in 82 IP) and Tim Byrdak (3.23 ERA in 61 IP) will need to build on their solid '09 performances and somebody from the group of young, promising arms will need to become a late-inning guys, either Wesley Wright, Alberto Arias, or one of the three prospects listed above who aren't in the rotation.


I'm guessing a lot of casual fans will look at the Astros this spring and think they are serious contenders in the NL Central. The middle of their lineup and their front four starters match up fairly well with many of their rivals.  However, those who follow this blog know that I consider roster depth among the most important aspects of building a competitive team for the six-month haul.  Frankly, the Astros are just plain thin, and their several weaknesses are going to be exposes over and over again by the middle of summer, especially if they suffer even one injury among that core group.  It would only take a small amount of bad luck for the Astros to actually sink below the Pirates and finish in last place for the first time since 1991.


Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:


CF Michael Bourn (L)
2B Kaz Matsui (S)
1B Lance Berkman (S)
LF Carlos Lee (R)
RF Hunter Pence (R)
3B Pedro Feliz (R)
C J. R. Towles (R)
SS Jeff Keppinger (R)
SP Roy Oswalt (R)


SP Wandy Rodriguez (L)
SP Brett Myers (R)
SP Bud Norris (R)
SP Yorman Bazardo (R)


CL Brandon Lyon (R)
SU Matt Lindstrom (R)
SU Jeff Fulchino (R)
MR Tim Byrdak (L)
MR Alberto Arias (R)
LOOGY Wesley Wright (L)
SWING Felipe Paulino (R)


C Humberto Quintero (R)
1B/3B Geoff Blum (S)
SS Tommy Manzella (R)
OF Jason Michaels (R)
OF Jason Bourgeois (R)