The New Moneyball Icon (Part 2): The Case for K-Lo

One of Billy Beane's significant contributions, elaborated in Moneyball, to the current baseball climate was his high estimation for the value of youth or, perhaps more accurately, his low estimation for the value of experience. Beane, and many a GM in his stead, contends that league-average (or worse) players are nearly always readily available at the minor-league level (assuming you know how to draft and evaluate). These players come cheaply, therefore there is never any reason to sign a mediocre veteran who cost five or six times as much for similar production. While a manager like Dusty Baker, who believes strongly in the value of experience, filled his bench in 2002 with players like Shawon Dunston, Tom Goodwin, Ramon Martinez, and Marvin Bernard, costing the Giants upwards of $7 Million, Beane's Athletics utilized guys like Jeremy Giambi, Olmedo Saenz, Adam Piatt, and Frank Menechino, all from within their own organization, for less than half the price.

The unfortunate result of Beane's realization is that now teams are often overprotective of even their second-tier prospects and wary of any player over the age of 35, even the supremely talented. In 2006, Beane's signing of Frank Thomas signaled his observation of this backlash and resulted in the A's getting an MVP-caliber season and a playoff berth on the back of a player making very near the league-minimum. While Thomas is the hyperbolic extreme of the new Moneyball icon, there are other players who have been consistently overlooked for the same reasons that Thomas was overlooked in 2006.

There is a glut of centerfielders on the market this offseason, as I've discussed previously. Already we have seen somewhat outlandish deals for Torii Hunter (5 yrs./$90 Mil.) and Milton Bradley (1 yr./$10 Mil.), and a quasi-reasonable deal for Andruw Jones (2 yrs./$36 Mil.). Expect to see more craziness when somebody gets around to signing Aaron Rowand. Even as the bigger names have gotten signed, their are still many alternatives available, as one would presume that guys like Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr. may be looking to relocate after being replaced, and second-tier free agents like Corey Patterson haven't even made it onto the rumor mill yet. One of those second-tier guys is Kenny Lofton.

Lofton's recent career reads like an absurd satire. After completing a four-year contract with the Indians (the team with which he will always be associated) in 2001, Lofton was presumed to be at the tail-end of his career. He had posted declining numbers in AVG, OBP, SLG, Runs, and Stolen Bases in each of the last three seasons with Cleveland. He was a 34-year-old ex-speedster who had spent significant time on the DL and no longer played the kind of defense that had netted him four straight Gold Gloves from '93-'96. In 2002, the Indians parted way with Lofton to make room for Milton Bradley, a promising prospect they had acquired from Montreal the year before. Lofton signed with divisional rival, the Chicago White Sox, for $1,025,000, approximated 1/8th of what Cleveland had paid him in '01. While Bradley hit .249 and spent half the season on the disabled list, Lofton had his healthiest season in years, scored 98 runs, mustered a 764 OPS, and finished the season as the lead-off hitter on the NL Champion Giants, batting .290 with seven runs scored and three stolen bases in the World Series.

In 2003, instead of resigning their late-season catalyst, the Giants opted to go with a very similar player, Marquis Grissom, who they signed to a three-year deal worth about $6.75 Million. Lofton once again signed for $1,025,000, this time with the Pirates. He was again traded at the deadline, this time to the Cubs, and again sparked a late-season run which landed the Cubs a few infamous outs from the World Series.

Grissom: .300 AVG, 790 OPS, 82 R, 79 RBI, 11 SB, 56 XBH
Lofton: .296 AVG, 802 OPS, 97 R, 46 RBI, 30 SB, 52 XBH

While Grissom and Lofton could hardly have had more similar value, the key here is that this was by far the most productive year of Grissom's contract, the Giants suffering through the final years of his career in '04 and '05.

Meanwhile Lofton played for two more teams during that span. He signed a new one-year $3.1 Million deal in 2004, this time with the Yankees. He struggled to play half the year, again showing signs of age (at 37), though he did have a good showing in the ALCS against Boston. It seemed surely, Lofton's run, at least as a starter, was over.

In 2005, while the Yankees handed centerfield chores back to Bernie Williams, Lofton signed on in Philadelphia as part of a platoon with Jason Michaels. Despite getting fewer plate appearances, Lofton outperformed the expensive Williams by a long shot:

Williams: .249 AVG, 688 OPS, 53 R, 64 RBI, 1 SB, 32 XBH, $12,357,143
Lofton: .335 AVG, 812 OPS, 67 R, 36 RBI, 22 SB, 22 XBH, $3,100,000

Despite his apparent resurrection, the Phillies decided not to resign Lofton, instead acquiring Aaron Rowand in the Jim Thome deal with the White Sox. Lofton signed with the Dodgers. Here were their lines at the end of '06:

Rowand: .262 AVG, 746 OPS, 59 R, 47 RBI, 10 SB, 39 XBH, $3,250,000
Lofton: .301 AVG, 763 OPS, 79 R, 41 RBI, 32 SB, 30 XBH, $3,800,000

Lofton slotted nicely between Rafeal Furcal and Nomar Garciaparra at the top of the Dodger lineup and was no small part of their run to the playoffs. However, they elected to sign Juan Pierre to a $42 Million deal during the offseason and Lofton, now 40, signed a one-year deal with Texas for $6 Mil., eventually getting traded to another playoff contender, his good ole Indians. Pierre's measly OBP may have contributed to the season-long slumps of Furcal and Garciaparra, while Lofton once again refused to show signs of significant decline:

Pierre: .293 AVG, 684 OPS, 96 R, 41 RBI, 64 SB, 32 XBH, $7,500,000
Lofton: .296 AVG, 781 OPS, 86 R, 38 RBI, 23 SB, 38 XBH, $6,000,000

In the six seasons since Lofton began being seen as a one-and-done rent-a-player, only once has he been outperformed by his (usually more expensive) replacement. Only once has he posted an OBP below .350. Only once has he missed playing in October. And, only once has the team that let him get away returned to the postseason the following year. It is almost like Lofton has had two careers. From his rookie year in 1992 until 2001, his salary inched up towards its $8 Million peak. Then it dropped down again in 2002 and inched up to another peak at $6 Million in '07, as teams slowly came to the realization that players of Lofton's talent continued to perform at a high level deep into their thirties. It would seem counterintuitive to predict that K-Lo will get less than that this coming year. If Jose Guillen is worth $12 Mil./year, he must certainly be worth six.

Oddly enough, the greatest players of the '90s have become the greatest deals of the late aughts. Thomas, Lofton, and Greg Maddux have already undergone that transformation. Perhaps Bonds, Piazza, and Griffey are soon to follow, along with Giles, Helton, and Smoltz. Or, perhaps, the market will swing back the other way and aging legends will make the big bucks way past their primes (as it used to be). But, at the very least, the Indians should know, it's a very dangerous proposition to let K-Lo go.

Soulful Second Season

Hard to believe that the Cubs were the first National League team to secure a spot in the National League Division Series. Harder still to believe that neither San Diego nor New York will be there. I'm past predictions.

Prince Fielder has rocket-launched his final moonshot of 2007. Curtis Granderson has chased down his final scorching line drive. Russell Martin is finally, hopefully, going to give his weary knees a rest. Brandon Phillips, Jose Reyes, and Barry Bonds are all headed home. Don't fret, this is an opportunity. Get to know best of the rest. Here's your guide to the most soulful players still in contention.

Mike Lowell - 3B - Boston Red Sox

Two years ago, after a season which has proved to be an utter aberration, the Marlins made Mike Lowell a throw-in, alongside Josh Beckett, in the trade that brought them Hanley Ramirez. One cannot fault them for this move, however, I doubt anybody in Florida (or Boston, for that matter) would have predicted that Lowell would finish any season with more RBIs (124) and a higher batting average (.324) than Miguel Cabrera. His RBIs set a Red Sox record. He made Manny Ramirez' late-season DL stint largely inconsequential.

Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks

He finished only three stolen bases short of becoming the first rookie to ever join the 30/30 club. Even if he had made it, he probably wouldn't have won the Rookie of the Year because of Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun. He had five multi-homer games. He is the best bet to have a Prince Fielder-like sophomore season. He might start as early as Wednesday. Every facet of his game improved as the season progressed.

Livan Hernandez - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks

He's easily forgotten these days. Casual fans will be surprised to see him when he trots out to the mound in Game 3 of the NLDS between Chicago and Arizona. He's been "reduced" to nothing more than a middle-of-the-rotation starter on what was supposed to be a middle-of-the-division team, a team that failed to score as many runs as their opponents, but somehow won more games than anybody in the National League. But he's a middle-of-the-rotation starter who's logged 200 innings in ten consecutive seasons, and 11 or more wins for eight in a row. He is a middle-of-the-rotation starter who has a 4-0 record and a 1.99 ERA in the NLDS and NLCS, a NLCS MVP, and a World Series MVP. He was undefeated in the postseason (6-0) until the World Series in 2002. He is a middle-of-the-rotation starter with a career 2.96 ERA in 9 starts at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Livan has quietly become one of the most reliable pitchers of his generation. He never tires, and somehow he always seems to be able to reach back for something extra when it matters most.

Daisuke Matsuzaka - SP - Boston Red Sox

Nobody east of McCovey Cove has had more attention directed his way during the 2007 season than Dice-K. In addition to the media frenzy, Dice-K was introduced to a different theory of pitching, a different size of ball, and, let us not forget, a different level of hitter in the world's best baseball division, the AL East. His performance was very uneven during his rookie year, but he did achieve 15 wins, 200 Ks, and 200 innings (only six other pitchers managed as much), marks that would have been more than sufficient for any other rookie. During one six-start stretch in June and July, Dice-K had a 1.29 ERA with 51 K in 42 IP. When Dice-K stays in the strikezone, away from the big inning, he can be as dominant as any pitcher in the postseason. One thing is for certain, he is just as exciting as advertised.

Alfonso Soriano - LF - Chicago Cubs

Fonzi began the season in much the same way as fellow Hundred Million Dollar Men, Barry Zito and Vernon Wells. Unlike BZ and VW, Soriano followed his .270/0 HR April by batting .303 with 33 HR the rest of the way, including a historic September which carried the Cubbies into the postseason. If his quad injury hadn't cost him his speed and much of August, Soriano would be on pace to match most of the gaudy numbers from 2006 that gained him his massive contract.

Chone Figgins - Anywhere & Everywhere - Los Angeles Angels

On the morning of May 31, Chone was batting .133. His manager had been forced to sit him for two important games against Seattle in favor of a power-hitting utilityman, Robb Quinlan, and promising rookie infielder, Erick Aybar. The Angels won both games. If Chone wanted to start on a contending team, he was going to have to step it up. He had three hits on May 31 and three more on June 1. From that point until September 22, a span of 83 games, he hit .405, scored 69 runs, and stole 37 bases. He also started at four different positions. Despite playing only 115 games, he finished with some of the best overall numbers of his career. His play-anywhere, do-anything, take-whatever-they'll-give-you-and-more style epitomizes Scioscia's Angels.

Kenny Lofton - LF - Cleveland Indians

The active triples and stolen base leader, K-Lo, has played for nine different teams in the past six years, a stretch which inspired a DHL commercial and makes Reggie Sanders' career seem like the picture of stability. Like Sanders, Lofton's transience is inexplicable. During those six seasons he's batted .293, averaged 80 runs and 24 stolen bases per year, and made four trips to the postseason, all while playing solid defense and being an unmistakably positive veteran presence in the clubhouse. Now, he's finally back where he belongs, in Cleveland, where he was a five-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner between '93 and '99. No Indian will be more eager to break Cleveland's 59-year World Series drought. Lofton has 349 postseason at-bats. The rest of the Indians have combined for 61. Since acquiring Lofton, the Indians are 54-35. Kenny probably won't be making starts against tough lefties this October, but against righthanders this season Lofton is batting .313 with an 838 OPS, so you can bet he'll be the left-fielder against the likes of Clemens, Wang, and Mussina in the Division Series.

Derrek Lee - 1B - Chicago Cubs

Like Alfonso, D-Lee got hot at the right time. He followed his first-half power outage (6 HR) by hitting as many homers (17 HR) after the All-Star Break as Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, or Miguel Cabrera. He hit .365 in September, which bodes well for October. D-Lee is the face of the Cubs, the "new look" Cubs. Ironically, as a Marlin, he was a big part of destroying the Cubs chances the last time they made it this far, in 2003. Hopefully he can impart that never-say-die attitude upon his new teammates, many of whom have little or no postseason experience.

C. C. Sabathia - SP - Cleveland Indians

Just don't miss his start on Thursday afternoon. Baseball's best pitcher facing baseball's best lineup in a playoff situation. This is when the soul rises.

Jimmy Rollins - SS - Philadelphia Phillies

On July 8th, at a time when neither team could really imagine themselves facing off in the postseason, the Phillies were playing the Rockies. In the third inning, with the Rockies leading 4-2, driving rain and gusty wind forced a delay. The Colorado grounds crew had trouble with the tarp, one member being tossed around and dragged by sudden bursts of powerful high-altitude winds. Jimmy Rollins led his entire team out onto the field and, rainsoaked, they helped the opposing grounds crew secure the tarp. At the end of the delay the Phillies mounted a comeback, led by Rollins going 3-for-3 with 2 RBI. Not enough can possible be said about Rollins' historic MVP season, in which, among other things, he will play upwards of 165 games at the sports' most demanding position. He has led the Phillies wire-to-wire and into the playoffs, just as he predicted. Don't expect this to be the last of his heroics.