Motown Ready For Rebound?

I've run hot and cold on the tenure of Dave Dombrowski.  I believe that the contract he gave Miguel Cabrera (8 yrs./$152 Mil.) may turn out to be one of the best and most value-driven nine-figure contracts in the game's history.  But that value has been more than offset by excessive contracts handed to Carlos Guillen, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis, among others.

I railed against the trading of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson last winter, but Austin Jackson and Max Scherzer gave Tigers fans lots to be optimistic about this season.  They're both young and inexpensive, and both showed flashes of brilliance.  Meanwhile, both Granderson and E-Jax had down years.  For now, it looks like Dombrowski bested both the Yankees and the D-Backs.  However, he turned around and made a predictably disastrous play for Johnny Damon.  Again, bad decisions offset good decisions.

Now, with Magglio Ordonez, Robertson, and Willis finally coming off the books, Dombrowski has more payroll space than he's had since the Tigers went to the World Series in 2006.  Dombrowski is one of the most active GMs every offseason, but this year he's taking it to a new level.  The Giants had barely finished their parade before the Tigers had announced half a dozen offseason moves.  Most notably, Dombrowski quickly resigned shortstop, Jhonny Peralta, and third baseman, Brandon Inge.  Then he snapped up free agent reliever, Joaquin Benoit.  And, most recently, he tabbed switch-hitting backstop, Victor Martinez.

V-Mart is easy to love.  He's one of the top five hitters at his position, possibly higher (only Joe Mauer is clearly better).  He's beloved by his teammates.  He's utterly consistent (OPS+ between 122 and 130 in every season except injury-plagued '08).  He's got a strong reputation as a game-caller and field general.  However, his age and his inability to control the running game in recent seasons suggest he is probably destined to be a first-baseman or DH by the end of this contract, at which point his production will merely be league-average for his position.

Benoit was arguably the best reliever in the American League last year.  However, $16.5 Million is a lot of money for a 33-year-old reliever who's coming off his best season, is only a year removed from a major injury, and isn't even your closer.  Dombrowski wasn't willing to go to $15 Million for Brandon Lyon last year, even though Lyon was significantly younger, had a better track record, and more closing experience.

In general, there seems to be an inconsistency of philosophy in Detroit's front office.  In '07 and '08 they spent wildly on offensive-minded players like Cabrera, Guillen, Edgar Renteria, and Gary Sheffield.  Then they reversed course and went with slick fielders like Adam Everett and Gerald Laird.  Now they've once again hired Iron Gloves at key defensive positions.  In every case, they've overpaid slightly for what they're prioritizing.  It's a hard pattern to get behind.

All this activity will promote speculation that the Tigers have moved within striking distance of the White Sox and Twins, both of whom have been utterly quiet thus far.  The division-leading Twins lost nearly their entire bullpen to free agency, as well as their winningest pitcher, their second baseman, and their beloved DH.  The Sox also lost a couple of key relievers, as well as their most productive hitter and their longtime catcher.  Plus Chicago still has question marks at third, in right, and at DH.  Until the offseason shakes out, we won't really know how much of the gap Dombrowski has closed.

That said, if he plans on making a serious run, not only at the AL Central title, but at a pennant, there is still a lot of work to be done.  The pitcher staff is very promising.  Justin Verlander, Scherzer, Rick Porcello, and Armando Galarraga comprise a youthful, high-upside rotation.  An additional innings-eater would certainly be nice, but shouldn't be Detroit's top priority.  The bullpen, led by Benoit and Jose Valverde, and supported by young power arms like Daniel Schlereth, Ryan Perry, and Joel "Cross Your Fingers" Zumaya, should also be a strength.  And V-Mart, combined with perennial MVP candidate, Cabrera, make for a legit middle-of-the-order tandem.

The rest of the regulars, however, provide cause for concern, both offensively and defensively. The Tigers outfield situation is very uncertain.  Both Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch had nice rookie campaigns, but their underlying stats suggest they are prime candidates for sophomore slumps.  Jackson's .293 average was boosted by a frankly unsustainable .396 average on balls in play.  His defense should keep him on the field, but he may struggle to be a competent tablesetter.  Boesch's production fell off the table in the second half of 2010, to an extent which suggests his hold on a starting position in 2011 is hardly guaranteed.  The other options currently at Dombrowski's disposal are no more encouraging.  Utilityman, Ryan Raburn, and September call-up, Casper Wells, both played well in limited exposure, but neither profiles as anything more than replacement level at a corner-outfield spot.

The infield defense, especially up the middle, where lead-footed veterans Carlos Guillen and Jhonny Peralta are expected to play, could be among the worst in the AL.  Inefficiency at converting outs could be dangerous for young arms like Scherzer and Porcello, not to mention frustrating for all involved.  As such, Dombrowski may be interested in a slick-fielding second-baseman like Orlando Hudson, which would allow Guillen to be the primary DH, which might help him stay healthy.  Other options could be resigning Magglio Ordonez or another, similar outfield/DH option who could come at a reasonable price.  Vladimir Guerrero, Lance Berkman, Pat Burrell, and Hideki Matsui are some free agents who might fit the profile.  Earlier in the week I also suggest Josh Willingham could be a trade target on the Tigers radar.

As busy as Dombrowski has been early in the Hot Stove season, I think he's still two or three moves away from contending with teams like the Rangers, Yankees, and Rays.

BBA Award Ballot: Goose Gossage Award

Taking my cue from the reliever we chose to name our award after, I did not conceive of this as resembling the "Rolaids Reliever of the Year" award, which is open exclusively to closers who pile up saves.  I did give some consideration to closing prowess, as I do tend to believe that all other things being equal, the last three outs are the hardest.  However, there are of course many games when the hardest outs come earlier, with men on base and the heart of the lineup coming up.  With that in mind, these were the factors I prioritized:

1.) Overall Dominance: Generally represented by stats like ERA, WHIP, and K/9, clearly if I was going to put a pitcher on my ballot, he needed to be among the best in his league at keeping runners off the basepaths and, preferably, able, when the situation demanded it, to keep them from even putting the ball in play.

2.) Durability: Being able to strike guys out is great, but being able to get outs night after night is even better.  Therefore, relievers who piled up innings and appearances while maintaining their effectiveness got a significant boost on my ballot.  After all, during the prime of Gossage's career, from 1977 to 1985, he averaged 93 innings per season.

3.) Closing Games: Pitchers who remained in the running on the basis of the first two standards were given an added boost if they also logged a significant number of those innings at the end of games.

4.) Pressure Situations & Pennant Implications:  This was essentially my tiebreaker category.  When it came to guys who were more or less evenly matched, I tried to take into consideration how they faired in "Close & Late" type situations, with men on base, etc., and also whether they were pitching crucial innings in August and September, with their team's fate riding on every game.

So, here's my ballot for the American League:

Honorable Mentions: Daniel Bard (Red Sox), Neftali Feliz (Rangers), Andrew Bailey (Athletics), Mariano Rivera (Yankees), Matt Thornton (White Sox), Alexi Ogando (Rangers)

3.) Joakim Soria (Royals)

Pitching for the worst franchise in baseball, Soria proved that he's nonetheless among the most valuable relief pitchers.  The Royals have Soria wrapped up at rather favorable terms until 2014, so the 26-year-old may never get to show off his talents on the national stage, but over the last four years he has been one of the top five closers in all of baseball.  This season he logged 65 2/3 innings, third most among AL closers, picked up 43 saves for a 65-win team, posted a 1.78 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an exceptional 4.44 K/BB ratio.  He finished 2nd among AL relievers in WAR at 1.7.

2.) Rafael Soriano (Rays)
1.) Joaquin Benoit (Rays)

You can easily make a case that the biggest difference between the '09 and the '10 Rays was the presence of shutdown relievers, Rafael Soriano and Joaquin Benoit.  Last year the Rays didn't establish their bullpen roles until deep into the season and ended up blowing 22 save chances and being in the middle of the pack in bullpen ERA (3.98).  This year Soriano led the league in saves, with 45, and, more importantly, alongside Joaquin Benoit, made it almost impossible for teams to put runners on base in the late innings against Tampa.  Tampa's overall bullpen ERA topped the league at 3.33.  Benoit and Soriano ranked #1 and #2 in the AL in WHIP, Opponents OPS, and Opponents Batting Average.  In 127 combined appearances, they coughed up only six leads.  It was difficult to decide which should rank higher, since Soriano had, arguably, the harder job, but in the end, Benoit's dominance was just too exceptional.

Benoit: 25 HLD (1 SV), 60 1/3 IP, 75 K, 0.68 WHIP, 1.34 ERA
Soriano: 45 SV, 62 1/3 IP, 57 K, 0.80 WHIP, 1.73 ERA

As for the senior circuit:

Honorable Mentions: Heath Bell (Padres), Matt Belisle (Rockies), Billy Wagner (Braves), Mike Adams (Padres), Jonny Venters (Braves), Sean Marshall (Cubs)

3.) Brian Wilson (Giants)

In many seasons, Wilson would be the runaway #1 on my ballot.  He led the league in saves (48), while producing a stingy ERA (1.81) and WHIP (1.18), pitching a ton of innings (74 2/3) and piling up strikeouts (93).  And, his team edged into the playoffs, highlighting how critical each of his outings was. He was particularly dominant down the stretch, when the Giants needed him most.  From August 1 to the end of the year, his ERA was 0.95.

2.) Hong-Chih Kuo (Dodgers)

You though Benoit's numbers were impressive.  While pitching almost the exact same number of innings, Kuo did him one better, compiling a 1.20 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, an absolutely insane 403 Opponents OPS, and an 11.50 K/9.  Kuo also spent about half the season as the Dodgers closer, so he picked up 12 saves to go along with his 21 holds.  What really stands out to me, however, is the fact that over a whole season, he only allowed eight earned runs.  Single digits!

1.) Carlos Marmol (Cubs)

If you just see Marmol's solid, but not superlative ERA (2.55) and his 38 saves, you might think I'm revealing my Cubs bias with this vote.  However, Marmol's season was actually kind of historic.  Only once before in a the Division Play era has a pitcher compiled as many as 138 strikeouts as a reliever (Brad Lidge had 157 in 2004).  What gets really crazy, however, is when you look at Marmol's strikeout rate.  His 15.99 K/9 is literally the best in baseball's long history, for a player who pitched at least 40 innings.  And, really, it isn't even close.  Eric Gagne's wild 2003 season, for which he won the Cy Young, comes in at #2, a full strikeout behind Marmol (14.98).  Marmol also led all NL closers in innings (77 2/3), so this wasn't exactly a matter of small sample size.  And, he topped all relievers in WAR (3.1) by a significant margin.  Marmol's ridiculous combination of power stuff and durability has turned him into the league's premier reliever, even though he continues to struggle with wildness (6.03 BB/9).