21st Century Cys (2011 Edition)

Last season about this time, in response to "out of nowhere" Cy Young award-winners like Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee, I offered a method for identifying the next set of pitchers who could climb suddenly to the elite Ace status.  You can read the original for more on my rationale, but the basic premise is to identify pitchers who haven't garnered Cy Young attention in previous seasons, but are in their mid-twenties, have at one time or another been considered blue-chip prospects, and are coming off respectable, but not dominant, seasons.  This was the 2010 class:

Chad Billingsley - Los Angeles Dodgers (25-years-old in '10, 1st-Rnd. Pick in '03)
12-11, 3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 171 K, 192 IP, 4.6 WAR (+1.4), '10 All-Star

John Danks - Chicago White Sox (25, 1st-Rnd. '03)
15-11, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 162 K, 213 IP, 4.3 WAR (+1.4)

Yovani Gallardo - Milwaukee Brewers (24, Baseball America #16 Prospect in '07)
14-7, 3.84 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 200 K, 185 IP, 4.6 WAR (+1.9)

Edwin Jackson - Chicago White Sox (26, BA #4 '04)
10-12, 4.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 181 K, 209 IP, 3.8 WAR (+0.3), No-Hitter

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies (25, Entered League at 22)
19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP, 6.3 WAR (+0.6), '10 All-Star Starter, #3 NL Cy Young Voting, #23 NL MVP Voting, No-Hitter

John Lannan, Washington Nationals (25, Entered League at 22)
8-8, 4.65 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 71 K, 143 IP, 1.2 WAR (-0.3)

Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (27, Entered League at 23)
14-9, 4.51 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 147 K, 158 IP, 2.5 WAR (-1.8)

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (27, 1st-Rnd. '04)
13-12, 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 233 K, 224 IP, 5.9 WAR (+2.0)

As you can see, although none won the Cy Young award (both leagues chose a player who was a perennial favorite), two pitchers, Jimenez and Weaver, were legitimate contenders, six of our eight pitchers improved upon their '09 campaigns (according to WAR), and five of the eight set career highs in WAR.  In total, the "21st Century Cy" class of 2010 combined for a 5.5 win improvement.  The only two backtrackers, Lannan and Nolasco, were derailed mainly by early season slumps.  After a month-long demotion, Lannan actually bounced back to go 6-3 with a 3.42 ERA in the second half.   Nolasco had his season ended early, but not before he put together a solid sixteen start stretch in which he went 10-5 with a 4.05 ERA and 9.7 K/9.

I used the "21st Century Cy" designation as part of my BLOGZKRIEG! draft stategy, landing Jimenez, Weaver, Gallardo, Danks, Jackson, and Lannan, and they were a big part of my eventual championship. Was this merely good fortune?  Well, there's only one way to find out.  Using the same formula as last season, I've identified a new class of "21st Century Cys."  It's signficantly larger than the 2010 class, indicating the dearth of good young pitching in the major leagues right now.  Three players from last season's class - Billingsley, Danks, and Gallardo - still qualify based upon all my criteria, but I won't bother profiling them again.  Here are the other candidates:

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Rangers v. Rays Is Better Than You Think ('10 Division Series Preview)

On the one hand, I will miss the drama of the play-in game.  Such games have provided arguably the finest competition of the season in each of the past two Octobers.  However, wins from the Braves and Giants on Sunday eliminated the cinderella Padres, and in so doing, assured the best possible matchups in the NLDS.

Let's face it, the Padres played over their heads in the first half, and although they made a valiant effort to hold off the Giants in the waning days, their 30-30 record in the last two months is probably an accurate reflection of the quality of their team.  With a beleaguered young rotation, an overworked bullpen, and an empty lineup, it was a forgone conclusion that they would've gotten pummeled by whomever their opponent was in the NLDS, if they had managed to squeak in.  So, R.I.P. 2010 Padres...

I promise to get you your last two Narrative Likability Factors, for the Giants and Braves, before their series begins on Thursday, but for now, let's focus not on what we'd like to happen, but what's likely to happen.  Here's how I'd handicap the 2010 postseason...

ALDS: Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays

By beating the Royals on the final day of the regular season, the Rays wrapped up the AL East title and the best record in the American League.  As a reward, they'll get a first-round pairing with a Rangers team that has been coasting for most of the last two months and features the top starting pitcher on the AL side of the bracket, Cliff Lee, and the likely AL MVP, Josh Hamilton.

Although Tampa Bay sports the best rotational ERA among AL playoff teams (3.99), in a short series, Texas poses quite a challenge.  For starters, here are the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers for each teams anticipated starters:

Texas:		Tampa:
Cliff Lee	7.0	David Price	4.3
C. J. Wilson	4.4	Matt Garza	2.0
Colby Lewis	4.4	Wade Davis	0.9
Tommy Hunter	0.7	James Shields	2.2

As you can see, when you adjust for park factors and competition (as WAR does), Texas appears to have three starters who are, at the very least, the equal of Tampa's best.  Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, either, as Matt Garza and Wade Davis were both much better in the second half.  Both teams have rotations replete with pitchers capable of dominating on any given night.  What these numbers suggest, however, is that those who are quick to cite the Rays pitching advantage have not really done their homework.  Cliff Lee went 4-0 last October.  If the Rays plan on advancing, they're going to need to find a way to get David Price at least one victory.

On offense, the Rays and Rangers ranked third and fourth in the AL in scoring.  However, while Texas was 2nd only to the Yankees in scoring at home, the Rays were tops in the AL on the road.  Perhaps we should expect pitching duels at Tropicana Field and slugfests when we move to Arlington.

Tampa definitely has the deeper roster, as Joe Maddon mixes and matches with Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Willy Aybar at RF, DH, and 2B.  All posses considerable power and are game-tested options off the bench when they don't start.  However, on both sides of the ball, the Rays are a better team for 162 than for 5 or 7.  As a unit, they hit for a very low average (.249) and are extremely susceptible to the strikeout, with 108 more Ks than any other team in the AL.  This could present a major problem when facing pitchers like Lee and Lewis, who have both overpowering stuff and excellent control.  Lee, Lewis, and Wilson all ranked in the top 25 in the AL in K/9, HR/9, and K/BB.  This could be a lethal combination of pitchers against a team that depends heavily on walks and homers.

The Rangers, on the other hand, led the American League in batting average (.276) behind free-swinging all-fields hitters like Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero.  They struck out infrequently (4th fewest in the AL) and still, like Tampa, hit plenty of homers.

I believe this will be the most evenly-matched series in the opening round and would be surprised if it didn't go to five games.  Both teams possess balanced attacks.  They've got deep bullpens, solid defenses, speed and power.  In the end, however, I think the Rangers approach on both sides of the ball will be more successful in a short series.

Texas in 5.

ALDS: New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins

The Twins have never beat the Yankees in a postseason series and have lost three Division matchups to them in the last seven seasons, so the "law of averages" is working in their favor, whatever that means.  Also working in their favor is their new ballpark, which boasted the biggest home-field advantage in the AL this season (53-28, .654), and where they are slated to host three ALDS games.

This is not the same Twins team which lost to the Yanks last October.  The lineup is deeper and perfectly balanced (4 lefties, 4 righties, 1 switch-hitter).  They have a legitimate Ace in the form of Francisco Liriano, who has a 3.12 career ERA against New York.  And, the pitching staff as a whole is back to being among the best in the league (4th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, 3rd in WAR) after an uncharacteristically bad showing in '09.

Also, this is not the same Yankee team that stomped through Minnesota on the way to their 27th Championship in 2009.  They won fewer games, scored fewer runs, and slumped down the stretch, winning only nine of their final 26 games (.346).  They've got question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen.  They have an atrocious infield defense.  They have struggled to hit southpaws.  In the lineup, only Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner have had "good" years, according to their own standards, while Derek Jeter and Lance Berkman have been downright bad.  Similarly, the rotation relies heavily on C. C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, who made only four starts in the second half.

An abundance of chinks have been exposed in their armor, especially in the final two months of the regular season, yet they are still the defending champs.  The lineup is, as usual, loaded and experienced, and Sabathia will pitch twice, if given the chance.

In general, first-games have been crucial to Division Series victory.  Game 1 winners have advanced 73.3% of the time.  Last year they went 4-for-4.  In this series, Game 1 is even more critical, as both teams will lean heavily on their Aces.  If Liriano can neutralize Sabathia, the Twins become heavy favorites, as Hughes has struggled down the stretch, Burnett has been terrible all season, and Pettitte has yet to prove he's fully healthy.

Twins in 4.

NLDS: Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are clearly this year's runaway favorite in the NL.  They are a battle-tested veteran team which has been to each of the last two World Series and has an All-Star at every position (except catcher, though there was a good argument for Carlos Ruiz this year).  There is no indication that they've peaked, as they improved throughout the last four months, playing .500 ball in June, .536 in July, .643 in August, and a ridiculous .768 in September.  The lineup is deep as ever, and, as a silver lining to their pervasive midseason health problems, they're well-rested.  They have the best pitcher in baseball, and two others which ain't that shabby.  And, thanks to an NL All-Star victory, they've got home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

The Reds, on the other hand, depend heavily on young players, many of whom have never played baseball in October.  They've got no dominant starting pitchers, a slightly suspect closer, and an outfield corp that combined for over 500 strikeouts.

With the Phillies able to throw Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt exclusively, thanks to the eight-day schedule granted to the #1-seeded team, this has all the makings of a bloodbath.  That trio has a career record of 30-4 against the Reds, with an ERA well under 3.00.  I am very fond of what Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker have done in Cincinnati, but I can't find any matchup in which they're the favorite.  They managed only two wins in seven tries against the Phillies during the regular season, getting swept when they journeyed to Citizens Bank Park.  It wasn't just Padres fans who were rooting against the Braves and Giants yesterday.  Those wins put a dagger in the Reds resurgent season by punching their ticket to Philadelphia.

Phillies in 3.

NLDS: Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants

On the surface, these would appear to be two very similar teams.  They've got nearly identical records.  They both clinched on the last day of the season.  They both outscored their opponents by exactly 115 runs.  Both depended heavily upon dominant starting pitching, deep bullpens, and experienced managers who cobbled together mediocre lineups.   They both played significantly better at home.

Upon further review, however, they are not that evenly matched.  These are two ballclubs headed in opposite directions.  The Braves peaked in May, when they won 20 games and scored 163 runs.  Since then, their offensive production has taken a dive, due in part to a flurry of injuries, especially to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, both finished for the season.  In September they scored just 105 runs on route to a 14-16 record.  Their pitching also faltered.  While Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe were excellent down the stretch, the Braves lost Jair Jurrjens to another injury and Tim Hudson, who was a Cy Young candidate as late as September 1st, posted a 5.32 ERA and four losses in his final month.

The Giants picked up their pace dramatically following the All-Star Break, and won 19 games in September.  Scoring improved following the promotions of Andres Torres and Buster Posey, and the acquisition of Pat Burrell.  And the Giants pitching, good throughout the season, became unhittable down the stretch, with a 1.91 ERA in the final month.

By winning on Sunday, the Giants assured that Tim Lincecum could be slated for a pair of starts.  The Freak went 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 52 K in 42 September innings.  Jonathan Sanchez was even better, going 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 48 K in 44 innings over his last seven outings.  Even with Bobby Cox's good karma, I don't see how the Braves survive.

Giants in 4.

Who should be the Twins starter in ALDS Game 1?

With another White Sox loss (7 in a row, geesh) and another Twins victory last night, Minnesota's magic number is 2, meaning they will almost certainly be the first team to clinch, perhaps as soon as tonight. The question will then be, how eagerly will Gardenhire pursue home-field advantage?  The Twins are neck-and-neck with the Yankees and Rays at this point, so they'll have to play dominant ball over the next two weeks in order to come out with the top record, especially since following the New York series, Tampa will be getting rich on Seattle, Baltimore, and Kansas City.  

Gardy's already announced that he's going with a six-man rotation for the next couple turns, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Twins can't win a lot of those games, facing teams like Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City.  It would, however, probably require him to continue to lean heavily on relievers like Jesse Crain and Matt Capps, while playing Joe Mauer and Jime Thome almost everyday, and my inclination is that all those guys could use some rest.

I know Gardy isn't exactly a stats guys, but when it comes to setting a playoff rotation, it's hard to ignore these:

Scott Baker - Home: 8-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, Away: 4-6, 5.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Nick Blackburn - Home: 6-3, 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, Away: 3-7, 6.99 ERA, 1.70 WHIP

Brian Duensing - Home: 6-1, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, Away: 4-1, 2.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Francisco Liriano - Home: 7-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, Away: 7-4, 4.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Carl Pavano - Home: 8-4, 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, Away: 9-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

Kevin Slowey - Home: 8-4, 3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, Away: 5-2, 4.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

What this suggests to me is that home-field advantage makes a big difference to the Twins, not necessarily in whether or not they can win a five-game series, but in terms of which pitchers give them the best opportunity for doing so.  Frankly, there's no way I give Blackburn a start away from Target Field, regardless of his recent hot streak.  I also make sure that Pavano is starting at least one of my road games, two if that's possible.  If all other factors are moot, here's how I think you'd set it up:

w/ Home Field:

Liriano (H), Duensing (H), Pavano (R), Slowey (R), Liriano (H)

w/o Home Field:

Pavano (R), Liriano (R), Duensing (H), Blackburn (H), Pavano (R)

The other thing Gardy should take into account is the fact that Yankee Stadium is tailored to left-handed hitters, so left-handed pitchers usually fair better there, thus perhaps tempting him to go against Liriano and Duensing's home/road splits.  Undoubtedly, he's waiting to see who his opponent is before setting the rotation.  The Yankees have a .625 W% against RHP this year, compared to .574 against LHP. Tampa is the exact opposite: .561 v. RHP, .667 v. LHP.  So, basically, the argument for Pavano over Liriano to get two starts makes much more sense if the Twins are starting the series in Tampa Bay, rather than in New York or in Minnesota.  

At the end of the day, however, while I think these stats should be taken into account when deciding whether to go with Blackburn over Slowey or Baker, I want my best pitcher taking the hill for two starts in a short series, no matter what the splits say.  And the best pitcher on the Twins is Liriano, and it's not really close:

Liriano - 14-8, 3.44 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.38 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 0.25 HR/9, 2.44 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), 6.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)

Pavano - 17-11, 3.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.80 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 3.2 WAR

Let me break this down a little.  The Yankees and Rays rank 3rd and 5th in the AL in homers this season.  Both teams, but especially the Yankees, score a high percentage of their runs off the long ball.  Pavano is three times more likely to give up homers.  Pavano has also been a little lucky this season in terms of batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  Generally, when hitters manage to put the ball in play, it drops for a hit around 30% of the time.  Pavano has been are 28%, while Liriano has been around 34%.  Neither is an incredible outlier, but this explains to some extent why the FIP statistic theorizes that over a prolonged period of time, if Pavano and Liriano pitched under the same exact circumstance, Pavano's ERA would be a little higher than it is (3.92), while Liriano's would be a full run lower than it is.

But what really strikes me here is the Wins Above Replacement gap, with Liriano being three wins more valuable than Pavano.  WAR takes into account things like the quality of competition, the places the pitcher made his specific starts, etc.  Basically, what WAR is telling us is that although Liriano has been a bit unlucky in terms of wins and ERA, he's about twice as valuable a pitcher as Pavano.  This, I think you'll agree, is backed up by watching them pitch.  While Liriano has suffered from injury and inconsistency over the course of his career, he has frequently shown the ability to be a dominant "Ace," as he has been doing throughout this year.  Pavano, despite an excellent performance in 2010, has never really been that kind of pitcher.  Maybe he was in 2004 with the Marlins (18-8, 3.00 ERA), but the 34-year-old version is considerably changed with long intervening track record of mediocrity.

Obviously, it would be great to see Pavano dominate the Yankees in New York, wreaking vengeance for years of ridicule and abuse.  However, this story is all the more powerful if it unfolds in game two or game three, especially if the Twins already have a series lead.  

OOTP Predicts Ubaldo's No-Hitter

In the third part of my OOTP simulation series I'm looking at a lineup of players who piqued my curiousity going into the season.  My primary interest had to do with their fantasy profiles, so the stats I tracked were 5 X 5 roto categories.