Although the depth at second has improved dramatically in the last few years, it is still a relatively sparse fantasy position. Shortstop is shallower. Catcher is by a slim margin. And third base is close to neck-and-neck. The sparsity of the infield "skills" positions leads fantasy owners to overpay for the guys at or near the top of the pile. We'll routinely treat Hanley Ramirez as fantasy royalty, even though he has only one season of 30+ HR, only one season of 100+ RBI, and only two seasons batting above .301.
I, personally, rarely pay premiums at scarce positions. So, in the middle infield I generally look for "sleepers" and value plays...as well as flexibility.
Especially in deeper leagues, when you take a moderate risk by making Aaron Hill or Neil Walker your primary second-baseman, with similar players at SS and/or 3B, you want to back them up with some low-risk options off the bench, preferably guys who play several positions. Here's a quick look at some interesting "eligibility" guys for this coming season
Bill Hall - Houston Astros - 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Depending on what your league regulations are, Hall may have as many as four position eligibilities. He actually played seven different positions for the Red Sox last season, including one appearance at pitcher. More importantly, he currently looks like an everyday player for his new team. While he's not going to do your team average any good, he should be good for 20+ homers and double-digit steals over a full season and shouldn't cost much more than $1 bid or a late round flyer.
Sean Rodriguez - Tampa Bay Rays - 2B, 3B, SS, OF
Again, you league's eligibility requirements will determine what he gets (5+ games at all the positions listed above), but he'll definitely qualify at 2B and OF. Rodriguez is only 25-years-old, slated for pretty much full-time at-bats in a loaded lineup, and had a AAA slugging percentage of .620 in 750 plate appearances. He's got premium power, decent speed (13 SB in '10), and shouldn't decimate your average (.298 at AAA). Unlike Hall, he won't come free, especially in deep leagues, but might be worth chasing nonetheless.
Jed Lowrie - Boston Red Sox - 1B, 2B, SS
It wasn't that long ago that the Red Sox considered Lowrie their top prospect, ahead of guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and even Jon Lester. In 2010, he finally showed a flicker of that promise at the major-league level. From July 26 to the end of the season he got relatively regular playing time and hit .294 with a 936 OPS. He closed off the year by hitting a pair of homers against the Yankees, pushing them into second place (and the Wild Card) behind the Rays. It was a small victory, but one that surely didn't go unnoticed in Red Sox nation. There's no clear place for Lowrie in Boston, but Marco Scutaro may be on a short leash and, of course, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia don't haven't the greatest track records for staying healthy (nor does Lowrie). He's worth stashing in deep leagues and worth following in shallower ones. I expect him to be a starter by August.
Now, on to the rankings...
1. Robinson Cano, NYY
2. Chase Utley, PHI
3. Rickie Weeks, MIL
4. Ian Kinsler, TEX
5. Dan Uggla, ATL
6. Brandon Phillips, CIN
7. Dustin Pedroia, BOS
It's actually a pretty crowded field at the top of the second-base rankings. Following an MVP-caliber 2010 season, which coincided with injury-plagued campaigns from Utley and Pedroia, Cano is the clear #1 option at the position, but don't fret if you miss out. Utley had a excellent stretch run at the end of last year and should be primed to bounce back in 2011, at a slightly reduced price. There's also little reason to believe Pedroia and Kinsler aren't capable of returning to form, but be aware, in terms of 5X5 fantasy production, Brandon Phillips is very nearly their equal and comes without the injury risk, having played 140+ games in each of the last five seasons.
8. Kelly Johnson, ARZ
9. Ben Zobrist, TBR
10. Aaron Hill, TOR
11. Martin Prado, ATL
12. Neil Walker, PIT
This group can be summarized by the phrase "one good year." For Johnson, Prado, and Walker it was 2010. For Zobrist and Hill, 2009. All of the players from this group have surprisingly power potential, especially for the middle-infield, but otherwise their strengths vary. Zobrist and Johnson can get you stolen bases. Prado hits for a high average. Walker is young enough that there may still be room for development. Unfortunately, there's not a lot of safety here and it will probably be at least another year before we can confidently say which of them was a fluke.
13. Brian Roberts, BAL
14. Chone Figgins, SEA
Speedsters a renowned for their expeditious declines. Roberts and Figgins, both 33-years-old, are coming off disappointing seasons which could signal that descent has begun. On the other hand, in limited opportunity following his return from the D.L., Roberts still showed good speed (10 for 12 in SB attempts), though absent his usual power (.405 SLG). Figgins managed to pile up the steals (42), even though his season was in nearly every other capacity the worst of his career. Advantage goes to Roberts primarily because he'll be hitting atop a revitalized lineup, whereas Figgins plays in the offensive wasteland of Seattle. Both are heavy in the risk department, but they should come much cheaper than they have in the past and therefore might be worth the gamble.
15. Gordon Beckham, CWS
16. Howie Kendrick, LAA
17. Mike Aviles, KCR
18. Sean Rodriguez, TBR
19. Eric Young Jr., COL
20. Danny Espinosa, WAS
21. Ryan Raburn, DET
The next class of potential breakout second-baseman is led by two highly-touted prospects who, as yet, haven't put it all together at the major-league level. Beckham got off to a horrid start in 2010, but had two strong months in July and August (.332 AVG, 941 OPS) before his season was cut short by injury. Rodriguez and Young won't get as much attention, because they don't offer a divers toolset, but Young has premium speed and Rodriguez premium power, so you could do worse in deep leagues. The diamond in the rough here is Mike Aviles, who could be this year's version of Martin Prado. In most leagues he'll be eligible at three infield positions (2B, 3B, SS) and has the ability to hit over .300 with 10-15 HR and 20+ steals, if he can hold down an everyday job. Wilson Betemit and Mike Moustakas are waiting in the wings, so Aviles needs to get off to a hot start.
22. Orlando Hudson, SDP
23. Freddy Sanchez, SFG
24. Omar Infante, FLA
25. Juan Uribe, LAD
26. Ty Wigginton, COL
27. Bill Hall, HOU
28. Mark Ellis, OAK
29. Carlos Guillen, DET
In most league you won't want anything to do with these guys, but in deep leagues, one has to plow the depths of the middle-infield ranks. Infante had a "breakout" season in 2010 which prompted his selection to the All-Star game, but his excellent average (.321) didn't bring much along with it (65 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 7 SB) and I have serious doubts there is any upside at age 29. Wigginton, who has legit power, could benefit from his move to Colorado, except that there is no clear place for him to play. If a Colorado infielder suffers an injury, he could jump up the list.
30. Dustin Ackley, SEA
31. Daniel Murphy, NYM
32. Luis Valbuena, CLE
33. Alexi Casilla, MIN
34. Jeff Baker, CHC
This is the deep sleeper contingent. Seattle seems prepared to hand a full-time gig to their top prospect following his dynamite Arizona Fall League performance, but his full season totals from AA and AAA were less than thrilling (775 OPS). I'm not convinced he's ready, but if you can get him on the cheap there is obviously tons of upside. The Mets Daniel Murphy experiment is probably destined for failure. It is the Mets after all. But if Murphy does prove himself able to handle the position switch, he has the offensive talent to be a top 15 fantasy second-baseman.
Showing posts with label Robinson Cano. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Robinson Cano. Show all posts
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Gold Gloves Meaningless, Laughable...As Usual
For those of you acquainted with the sabermetric argument for defensive statistics, there won't be much news here, but I want to make my annual rant about the Gold Glove voting, which serious students of the game stopped taking seriously a long time ago, but which is still used to incentivize contracts, on Hall of Fame plaques, and by a hoard of ignorant pundits annually. Here's the basics.
Obviously, we all prefer the aspects of the game which can be measured with our own eyes. Unfortunately, defense is something that can only effectively evaluated over the long term (even one season is kind of a small sample size). Every athlete in the league is capable of the occasional web gem. We can't allow ourselves to be conned into hyperbolic attestations based on a single play or short series of plays spanning a few games. As a result, nobody can hope to see enough baseball each season to be capable of making reasoned judgements without consulting some form of statistic. If you watch your team everyday, you probably know pretty confidently which of your defenders are good, great, fine, weak, and ugly, and you could probably get confirmation of those observations using statistics. But you can't make a reasoned, objective judgment about how your shortstop or left-fielder stacks up against the rest of the league, because you watch the 29 other teams but rarely. To make the Gold Glove a meaningful award, the voters have to rely of some conglomeration of statistics. Otherwise they are, as I've stated ad nauseum, meaningless and laugable.
I openly admit that no defensive metric is perfect. Every position demands a variety of skills and every player brings a different tools to the table. Vlad Guerrero still has an exceptional throwing arm, but as he showed during Game One of the World Series, he's no longer very flexible or fleet of foot. Juan Pierre has exceptional speed, but has a noodle arm and the tendency to take meandering routes to balls in the gap. Any defensive assessment is, at last, imperfect, regardless of how much observational and statistical data we bring to the table. We should, however, recognize that the advanced metrics (UZR is the most readily available) are based upon the charting of every play that every player is involved in. As such, they do a lot of work that our eyes cannot. There are flaws in the charting systems, certainly, but they get better with every passing year. And, if you are really geeked on defense, you can look at something like John Dewan's Fielding Bible, which will breakdown not only "overall" defensive performance, but analyze how players approach specific types of plays (coming in v. going out, up-the-middle v. in-the-hole, around the bag v. off the line, etc.).
Since no one stat tells the whole story (although UZR comes pretty close), certain comparisons are too close to call. Rob Neyer might suggest that Brett Gardner was marginally better than Carl Crawford this year, but both were extremely good. And Neyer would happily admit that the small difference between them could be related to their ballparks, pitching staffs, and the simple fact that they didn't get exactly the same set of potential chances. As such, I don't think it's all that unreasonable to give Crawford the hardware. He's been an elite defensive outfielder for far longer than Gardner, so we know there's nothing the least bit flukey about his 2010 numbers. The same can honestly be said about the choice of Evan Longoria over Adrian Beltre and Kevin Kouzmanoff, the choice of Troy Tulowitzki over Brendan Ryan, the choice of Albert Pujols over Ike Davis, etc.
All told, I'd say 13 of the 18 Gold Glove recipients were at least modestly deserving this season, which is actually pretty good, so I'm going to reserve my comments for the ones who clearly weren't:
Let's get this out of the way. Derek Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove for his performance in 2010. Jeter has become the posterchild for all that is wrong with the voting process. There's no doubt, in fact, that the exposes which originated out of Baseball Prospectus a few years back actually spurred Jeter to rededicate himself to defense and in '08 and '09 he was better than he'd ever been (though still not nearly the best). At this point, however, his age has merely caught up to him, and even stalwart Yankee fans will admit he's mediocre...at best. He has hardly any mobility on either side and has one of the weakest arms at his position.
What he is, however, is very sure-handed on balls hit directly at him, which explains his league-leading fielding percentage. It also explains why Alexei Ramirez created nearly twice as many outs outside the average shortstop zone and was involved in nearly 100 more plays. According to FanGraphs, all that range (not to mention his incredible throwing arm) helped Ramirez to save his team approximately fifteen more runs than Captain Intangible over the course of the 2010 season.
Jeter's isn't the only Gold Glove causing accusations of Yankee bias...
Obviously, we all prefer the aspects of the game which can be measured with our own eyes. Unfortunately, defense is something that can only effectively evaluated over the long term (even one season is kind of a small sample size). Every athlete in the league is capable of the occasional web gem. We can't allow ourselves to be conned into hyperbolic attestations based on a single play or short series of plays spanning a few games. As a result, nobody can hope to see enough baseball each season to be capable of making reasoned judgements without consulting some form of statistic. If you watch your team everyday, you probably know pretty confidently which of your defenders are good, great, fine, weak, and ugly, and you could probably get confirmation of those observations using statistics. But you can't make a reasoned, objective judgment about how your shortstop or left-fielder stacks up against the rest of the league, because you watch the 29 other teams but rarely. To make the Gold Glove a meaningful award, the voters have to rely of some conglomeration of statistics. Otherwise they are, as I've stated ad nauseum, meaningless and laugable.
I openly admit that no defensive metric is perfect. Every position demands a variety of skills and every player brings a different tools to the table. Vlad Guerrero still has an exceptional throwing arm, but as he showed during Game One of the World Series, he's no longer very flexible or fleet of foot. Juan Pierre has exceptional speed, but has a noodle arm and the tendency to take meandering routes to balls in the gap. Any defensive assessment is, at last, imperfect, regardless of how much observational and statistical data we bring to the table. We should, however, recognize that the advanced metrics (UZR is the most readily available) are based upon the charting of every play that every player is involved in. As such, they do a lot of work that our eyes cannot. There are flaws in the charting systems, certainly, but they get better with every passing year. And, if you are really geeked on defense, you can look at something like John Dewan's Fielding Bible, which will breakdown not only "overall" defensive performance, but analyze how players approach specific types of plays (coming in v. going out, up-the-middle v. in-the-hole, around the bag v. off the line, etc.).
Since no one stat tells the whole story (although UZR comes pretty close), certain comparisons are too close to call. Rob Neyer might suggest that Brett Gardner was marginally better than Carl Crawford this year, but both were extremely good. And Neyer would happily admit that the small difference between them could be related to their ballparks, pitching staffs, and the simple fact that they didn't get exactly the same set of potential chances. As such, I don't think it's all that unreasonable to give Crawford the hardware. He's been an elite defensive outfielder for far longer than Gardner, so we know there's nothing the least bit flukey about his 2010 numbers. The same can honestly be said about the choice of Evan Longoria over Adrian Beltre and Kevin Kouzmanoff, the choice of Troy Tulowitzki over Brendan Ryan, the choice of Albert Pujols over Ike Davis, etc.
All told, I'd say 13 of the 18 Gold Glove recipients were at least modestly deserving this season, which is actually pretty good, so I'm going to reserve my comments for the ones who clearly weren't:
| AL SS (9 Q): | UZR | RF | FPCT | ZR | OOZ | RngR | ErrR | INN | Errors |
| Derek Jeter | -4.7 (#7) | 3.78 (#8) | .989 (#1) | 6.63 (#2) | 38 (#9) | -11.8 (#9) | 6.5 (#1) | 1303 (#4) | 6 (#1) |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.1 (#4) | 4.48 (#4) | .976 (#4) | 5.61 (#6) | 46 (#6) | 1.3 (#4) | -2.6 (#8) | 1291 (#5) | 16 (#4) |
| Cliff Pennington | 9.9 (#2) | 4.93 (#1) | .966 (#7) | 5.01 (#9) | 53 (#4) | 9.4 (#1) | 0.6 (#5) | 1304 (#3) | 25 (#9) |
| Alexei Ramirez | 10.8 (#1) | 4.89 (#2) | .974 (#6) | 5.09 (#8) | 67 (#1) | 8.4 (#2) | 1.0 (#4) | 1376 (#1) | 20 (#7) |
Let's get this out of the way. Derek Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove for his performance in 2010. Jeter has become the posterchild for all that is wrong with the voting process. There's no doubt, in fact, that the exposes which originated out of Baseball Prospectus a few years back actually spurred Jeter to rededicate himself to defense and in '08 and '09 he was better than he'd ever been (though still not nearly the best). At this point, however, his age has merely caught up to him, and even stalwart Yankee fans will admit he's mediocre...at best. He has hardly any mobility on either side and has one of the weakest arms at his position.
What he is, however, is very sure-handed on balls hit directly at him, which explains his league-leading fielding percentage. It also explains why Alexei Ramirez created nearly twice as many outs outside the average shortstop zone and was involved in nearly 100 more plays. According to FanGraphs, all that range (not to mention his incredible throwing arm) helped Ramirez to save his team approximately fifteen more runs than Captain Intangible over the course of the 2010 season.
Jeter's isn't the only Gold Glove causing accusations of Yankee bias...
Sunday, October 24, 2010
BBA Ballot: Stan Musial Award
I'm going to have plenty to say about what I consider the most exciting World Series matchup since at least 2005, but there's plenty of time between now and Game One. So, to prevent myself from being distracted by the BBA Award deadline, which unfortunately falls during the Series, I'm going to go ahead and get in my ballot for the most valuable position player in each league:
American League:
10. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
9. Paul Konerko (White Sox)
Let's begin with a couple of players from the AL Central who will probably be largely overlooked. Konerko had a career year at the age of 34, driving in 111 with 39 bombs, while batting .312 with a career high 977 OPS. Without his tremendous performance, it's hard to imagine the Sox would've hung with the Twins for as long as they did. Choo's team, of course, didn't hang with anybody, unless you count the Royals, who barely beat the Indians out for worst team in the division. Choo, however, hitting in a lineup absent of other threats, continued his ascension towards the top of the AL with his second consecutive 20/20 season. He hit .300 with a .401 OBP and drove in 90 runs, while playing a very commendable right field.
8. Joe Mauer (Twins)
It may have seemed a disappointing season when compared with his MVP campaign in 2009, but Mauer is still a premium defensive catcher who finished third in the league in hitting (.327) and OBP (.402). With no Morneau in the second-half, he was the driving force in a lineup that was among the best in baseball, while also guiding a rotation which dramatically outperformed expectations. Will he be worth $20 Million in 2018? That remains to be seen, but he certainly was this season.
7. Evan Longoria (Rays)
6. Carl Crawford (Rays)
It was difficult to separate the Rays studs, who actually finished in a tie for third in the AL in WAR (6.9, also tied with Jose Bautista). Longoria was the RBI man (102) with power (32 HR), while Crawford was the speedy table-setter (110 R, 47 SB), who also posted plenty of extra-base hits (62). Both played exceptional defense at their positions, hit for high averages, and played basically every game. Crawford, of course, benefitted from having Longoria batting behind him, while Longoria benefitted from frequently having Crawford on base in front of him, driving pitchers crazy. This could easily be flip-flopped, but I gave Crawford the slight edge.
5. Adrian Beltre (Red Sox)
The Red Sox played much of their season without Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron. When you lose more than half your Opening Day starting lineup, you're not supposed to win 89 games, particularly in the AL Easy. The main reason the BoSox stayed in the hunt until the final weeks of the season was Adrian Beltre, who was nothing short of spectacular both offensively and defensively. He led the AL in doubles, was fourth in the league in hitting, and fifth in OPS. His 11.8 UZR was easily the best among third-basemen.
4. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
The Yankees postseason lineup featured five players making more money than Cano, but there's no denying who New York's MVP was in 2010, both during the regular season and in October. Cano, who the Yankees have signed through 2013, has turned into a real bargain. Not only did he set career highs in HR (29), RBI (109), and OPS (914), while again hitting well above .300, but he also made dramatic strides with his fielding for the second straight season.
3. Jose Bautista (Blue Jays)
Bautista's season was nothing short of remarkable. The 30-year-old breakout sensation was the first player to break the 50 HR plateau since 2007, and had 15 more bombs than any other player in the American League. Bautista also showed excellent plate discipline (100 BB/116 K) and versatility, by playing 3B as well as both corner outfield spots. Many will question his ability to duplicate this type of performance, but all the underlying metrics, including his spectacularly low .233 BABIP, suggest this was not a fluke.
2. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
Miggy led the league in OBP (.420), OPS+ (179), and RBI (126), among other things, while hitting at the center of a beleaguered lineup, which is why he also led the league in intentional walks (32). Clearly, his offseason pledge to stay off the sauce paid major dividends for the Tigers and his massive contract has thusfar been warranted. In fact, one gets the sense that, at 27, Miggy's best years are still in front of him, which is frightening, considering he's gotten MVP votes every year since he entered the league. If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably be talking about this eight-year stretch as among the best ever to begin a career.
1. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)
Every day is a challenge for Hamilton...outside the lines. But he proved again this year that when he's healthy - physically and mentally - the game of baseball is actually pretty easy for him. His 8.0 WAR paced baseball, even though he missed most of the final month of the season. He won his first batting titles, led the AL in OPS, and played excellent defense in both center and left. Most importantly, the team he led made their first trip to the postseason in over a decade, won their first playoff series, and has now punched their first ticket to the World Series. None of that happens without Hamilton.
National League:
10. Andres Torres (Giants)
Certainly, Torres is among the best "feel good" stories of the 2010 season. However, most people don't realize that he actually finished 7th in the NL in WAR (6.0), ahead of preeminent names like Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun. Certainly, Torres was good as the Giants leadoff hitter, bring power (67 extra-base hits) and speed (26 SB), but he was outstanding in the outfield, easily leading the league with a 21.2 UZR. Flanked on both sides by below average fielders, Torres' defensive range, as much as anything, explains why the Giants season really took off after he was made an everyday player.
9. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)
Although it was a disappointing season overall for the Cardinals, Holliday definitely lived up to expectations in his first full season in St. Louis, hitting .312 with 28 HR and 103 RBI. He provided exactly what the Cardinals were looking for in terms of protecting El Hombre.
8. Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
As A-Gonz goes, so go the Padres. He carried his team through much of the season and, at the All-Star Break, was probably neck-and-neck with Pujols and Votto in terms of MVP consideration. However, he fell off slightly in the second half and slumped dramatically down the stretch (.200 AVG in final 17 games), and the surprising Padres ended up falling short of a playoff berth. Still, 31 HR, 101 RBI, and a 904 OPS playing at PETCO Park and hitting in the middle of a terribly lineup is very, very impressive. Someday Gonzo will leave San Diego and when he does, the numbers could be truly terrifying.
7. Jayson Werth (Phillies)
In the past, Werth has always been a great compliment to the cast of MVP candidates at the top of the Philadelphia lineup. This year, however, J-Roll, Utley, and Howard all spent significant time on the DL, and Werth was the only constant. He rose to the occasion and helped the Phillies put up the best record in baseball, despite their plague of injuries.
6. Aubrey Huff (Giants)
I made the Huff for MVP case a couple weeks ago. I'm not going to rehash the details, but, clearly, Huff was the only constant at the heart of the lineup for the eventual pennant-winners and he also showed versatility and was surprisingly efficient in the field. Not enough to warrant top five consideration, but a very commendable season for the journeyman.
5. Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)
If Colorado had made the postseason the back of Tulo's historic September (15 HR, 40 RBI, 1120 OPS), he might've cracked the top three. Tulo, of course, also brings outstanding defensive prowess at a key position, but the fact that he missed a quarter of the season holds him back slightly.
4. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)
Another guy who flashes some major leather, but also missed a substantial amount of time, unfortunately. If you don't live in D. C., you may not have noticed how good Z-Pack was this year. Even with his trip to the disabled list, he managed to finish third in the NL in WAR (7.2).
3. Joey Votto (Reds)
2. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
1. Albert Pujols (Cardinals)
This is, of course, the much-publicized battle, as each of these guys seemed like Triple Crown threats at one point or another. In the end, they all finished top five in the league in nearly all the major categories. Pujols paced the senior circuit in homers (42) and RBI (118), while CarGo won the batting title (.336) and Votto the OPS crown (1024). But in none of these categories did one have a tremendous advantage over the others. You could say that CarGo's numbers are inflated by the Coor Field factor, but, of course, Great American Ballpark isn't exactly a pitchers park. You could say that Votto's numbers are inflated because he was hitting at the center of the NL's most productive lineup, but the Rockies (#3) and Cardinals (#6) weren't that far behind. Freakishly, all three of these guys also had double-digit steals, so it was difficult to make an argument for CarGo based on his clearly better speed. You can make a strong argument for ranking these guys in any order, but here's my rationale.
1.) It ain't that easy being Albert. Even with Holliday batting behind him, Pujols once again led the NL in intentional passes, for the third year in a row. While Votto and CarGo are still earning the respect of the league, Pujols frequently gets the Bonds treatment, where opposing managers choose to force somebody else to beat them. This helps his run totals (he led the league with 115) and OBP (.414), but makes those RBI seem even more exceptional.
2.) For power-hitters, Votto and CarGo don't have extremely high strikeout rates, but Pujols is just flat-out superhuman. For the eighth consecutive season he walked more than he struck out (103/76). Again, that's Bonds-esque.
3.) All three of these guys are good defenders, but Pujols is one of the best ever at his position. And, CarGo gets a little bonus because of his ability to play center, a premium defensive position.
American League:
10. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
9. Paul Konerko (White Sox)
Let's begin with a couple of players from the AL Central who will probably be largely overlooked. Konerko had a career year at the age of 34, driving in 111 with 39 bombs, while batting .312 with a career high 977 OPS. Without his tremendous performance, it's hard to imagine the Sox would've hung with the Twins for as long as they did. Choo's team, of course, didn't hang with anybody, unless you count the Royals, who barely beat the Indians out for worst team in the division. Choo, however, hitting in a lineup absent of other threats, continued his ascension towards the top of the AL with his second consecutive 20/20 season. He hit .300 with a .401 OBP and drove in 90 runs, while playing a very commendable right field.
8. Joe Mauer (Twins)
It may have seemed a disappointing season when compared with his MVP campaign in 2009, but Mauer is still a premium defensive catcher who finished third in the league in hitting (.327) and OBP (.402). With no Morneau in the second-half, he was the driving force in a lineup that was among the best in baseball, while also guiding a rotation which dramatically outperformed expectations. Will he be worth $20 Million in 2018? That remains to be seen, but he certainly was this season.
7. Evan Longoria (Rays)
6. Carl Crawford (Rays)
It was difficult to separate the Rays studs, who actually finished in a tie for third in the AL in WAR (6.9, also tied with Jose Bautista). Longoria was the RBI man (102) with power (32 HR), while Crawford was the speedy table-setter (110 R, 47 SB), who also posted plenty of extra-base hits (62). Both played exceptional defense at their positions, hit for high averages, and played basically every game. Crawford, of course, benefitted from having Longoria batting behind him, while Longoria benefitted from frequently having Crawford on base in front of him, driving pitchers crazy. This could easily be flip-flopped, but I gave Crawford the slight edge.
5. Adrian Beltre (Red Sox)
The Red Sox played much of their season without Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron. When you lose more than half your Opening Day starting lineup, you're not supposed to win 89 games, particularly in the AL Easy. The main reason the BoSox stayed in the hunt until the final weeks of the season was Adrian Beltre, who was nothing short of spectacular both offensively and defensively. He led the AL in doubles, was fourth in the league in hitting, and fifth in OPS. His 11.8 UZR was easily the best among third-basemen.
4. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
The Yankees postseason lineup featured five players making more money than Cano, but there's no denying who New York's MVP was in 2010, both during the regular season and in October. Cano, who the Yankees have signed through 2013, has turned into a real bargain. Not only did he set career highs in HR (29), RBI (109), and OPS (914), while again hitting well above .300, but he also made dramatic strides with his fielding for the second straight season.
3. Jose Bautista (Blue Jays)
Bautista's season was nothing short of remarkable. The 30-year-old breakout sensation was the first player to break the 50 HR plateau since 2007, and had 15 more bombs than any other player in the American League. Bautista also showed excellent plate discipline (100 BB/116 K) and versatility, by playing 3B as well as both corner outfield spots. Many will question his ability to duplicate this type of performance, but all the underlying metrics, including his spectacularly low .233 BABIP, suggest this was not a fluke.
2. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
Miggy led the league in OBP (.420), OPS+ (179), and RBI (126), among other things, while hitting at the center of a beleaguered lineup, which is why he also led the league in intentional walks (32). Clearly, his offseason pledge to stay off the sauce paid major dividends for the Tigers and his massive contract has thusfar been warranted. In fact, one gets the sense that, at 27, Miggy's best years are still in front of him, which is frightening, considering he's gotten MVP votes every year since he entered the league. If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably be talking about this eight-year stretch as among the best ever to begin a career.
1. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)
Every day is a challenge for Hamilton...outside the lines. But he proved again this year that when he's healthy - physically and mentally - the game of baseball is actually pretty easy for him. His 8.0 WAR paced baseball, even though he missed most of the final month of the season. He won his first batting titles, led the AL in OPS, and played excellent defense in both center and left. Most importantly, the team he led made their first trip to the postseason in over a decade, won their first playoff series, and has now punched their first ticket to the World Series. None of that happens without Hamilton.
National League:
10. Andres Torres (Giants)
Certainly, Torres is among the best "feel good" stories of the 2010 season. However, most people don't realize that he actually finished 7th in the NL in WAR (6.0), ahead of preeminent names like Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun. Certainly, Torres was good as the Giants leadoff hitter, bring power (67 extra-base hits) and speed (26 SB), but he was outstanding in the outfield, easily leading the league with a 21.2 UZR. Flanked on both sides by below average fielders, Torres' defensive range, as much as anything, explains why the Giants season really took off after he was made an everyday player.
9. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)
Although it was a disappointing season overall for the Cardinals, Holliday definitely lived up to expectations in his first full season in St. Louis, hitting .312 with 28 HR and 103 RBI. He provided exactly what the Cardinals were looking for in terms of protecting El Hombre.
8. Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)
As A-Gonz goes, so go the Padres. He carried his team through much of the season and, at the All-Star Break, was probably neck-and-neck with Pujols and Votto in terms of MVP consideration. However, he fell off slightly in the second half and slumped dramatically down the stretch (.200 AVG in final 17 games), and the surprising Padres ended up falling short of a playoff berth. Still, 31 HR, 101 RBI, and a 904 OPS playing at PETCO Park and hitting in the middle of a terribly lineup is very, very impressive. Someday Gonzo will leave San Diego and when he does, the numbers could be truly terrifying.
7. Jayson Werth (Phillies)
In the past, Werth has always been a great compliment to the cast of MVP candidates at the top of the Philadelphia lineup. This year, however, J-Roll, Utley, and Howard all spent significant time on the DL, and Werth was the only constant. He rose to the occasion and helped the Phillies put up the best record in baseball, despite their plague of injuries.
6. Aubrey Huff (Giants)
I made the Huff for MVP case a couple weeks ago. I'm not going to rehash the details, but, clearly, Huff was the only constant at the heart of the lineup for the eventual pennant-winners and he also showed versatility and was surprisingly efficient in the field. Not enough to warrant top five consideration, but a very commendable season for the journeyman.
5. Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)
If Colorado had made the postseason the back of Tulo's historic September (15 HR, 40 RBI, 1120 OPS), he might've cracked the top three. Tulo, of course, also brings outstanding defensive prowess at a key position, but the fact that he missed a quarter of the season holds him back slightly.
4. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)
Another guy who flashes some major leather, but also missed a substantial amount of time, unfortunately. If you don't live in D. C., you may not have noticed how good Z-Pack was this year. Even with his trip to the disabled list, he managed to finish third in the NL in WAR (7.2).
3. Joey Votto (Reds)
2. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
1. Albert Pujols (Cardinals)
This is, of course, the much-publicized battle, as each of these guys seemed like Triple Crown threats at one point or another. In the end, they all finished top five in the league in nearly all the major categories. Pujols paced the senior circuit in homers (42) and RBI (118), while CarGo won the batting title (.336) and Votto the OPS crown (1024). But in none of these categories did one have a tremendous advantage over the others. You could say that CarGo's numbers are inflated by the Coor Field factor, but, of course, Great American Ballpark isn't exactly a pitchers park. You could say that Votto's numbers are inflated because he was hitting at the center of the NL's most productive lineup, but the Rockies (#3) and Cardinals (#6) weren't that far behind. Freakishly, all three of these guys also had double-digit steals, so it was difficult to make an argument for CarGo based on his clearly better speed. You can make a strong argument for ranking these guys in any order, but here's my rationale.
1.) It ain't that easy being Albert. Even with Holliday batting behind him, Pujols once again led the NL in intentional passes, for the third year in a row. While Votto and CarGo are still earning the respect of the league, Pujols frequently gets the Bonds treatment, where opposing managers choose to force somebody else to beat them. This helps his run totals (he led the league with 115) and OBP (.414), but makes those RBI seem even more exceptional.
2.) For power-hitters, Votto and CarGo don't have extremely high strikeout rates, but Pujols is just flat-out superhuman. For the eighth consecutive season he walked more than he struck out (103/76). Again, that's Bonds-esque.
3.) All three of these guys are good defenders, but Pujols is one of the best ever at his position. And, CarGo gets a little bonus because of his ability to play center, a premium defensive position.
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
An Idealistic All-Star Ballot (AL)
It's that time of year, when one could responsibly consider being an informed participant in the All-Star Voting. Last year, we fans elected Josh Hamilton to start. At the time, he was hitting .226 with 6 HR and had spent much of the previous three months on the D.L. This is merely the most recent of many ridiculous selections. From the much-publicized perspective that the All-Star game now "counts," because it determines home-field advantage for the World Series, the fact the game is still treated as an exhibition in terms of voting seems counter-intuitive. One could, I suppose, rationalize voting for the worst players on the AL ballot, if you favored team is from the NL.
We'll set the incongruities of the process aside for now, as I offer what I deem the most deserving candidates at each position, starting in the American League:
We'll set the incongruities of the process aside for now, as I offer what I deem the most deserving candidates at each position, starting in the American League:
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: "O-Dog would probably sign with your fantasy team, if you're willing to give him a three-year contract." (Second Base Preview)
I've been bemoaning it for months, but I'll be damned if it doesn't continue to infuriate me that Orlando Hudson doesn't have a job, in February, for the second year in a row. He is, nonetheless, included on my list, along with fellow unsigned free agent, Felipe Lopez.
1. Chase Utley (Phillies)
2. Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
3. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
4. Brandon Phillips (Reds)
Not long ago, the big question at second base was, "Who don't I take if I don't get Jeff Kent?" The pickings were slim. But in recent years, the field has gotten progressively better, led, of course, by Chase Utley, a perennial MVP candidate who should be among the top five players off the board and will cost you close to $40 in an auction.
Some will be surprised that I rank Phillips among the elite options, but I like the consistency of his across-the-board production and, at 28, I think his best season may still be in front of him. He's been 20/20 for three years running and with more lineup protection has a legit shot at going 30/30 (as he did in '07), to go along with at least 80 R and 90 RBI. Phillips is the picture of health, with 550+ plate appearances in each of the last four seasons.
5. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
6. Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)
7. Ben Zobrist (Rays) [also eligible at SS and OF in many leagues]
There is a very strong argument for passing on the elite guys and jumping on the second tier this season, as each of these options has the potential to perform at the elite level. What keeps them out of the first tier is merely consistency. Hill and Zobrist had breakout seasons in '09, but they need to prove themselves more than "one-hit wonders." Personally, I think both are legit, as they showed consistent progression in both power and discipline throughout the minor leagues and in their first few big-league seasons.
Cano offers a slightly different quandary. He put up the biggest season of an already impressive career in '09 directly following his atrocious '08 campaign, so many will wonder what to trust. I think he's about to blossom into a batting champ. Obviously, you can't complain about his situation, hitting in the middle of a loaded lineup at a ballpark built for left-handed hitters. Cano will continue to see lots of good pitches and have plenty of run-producing opportunities. Also, as good as his '09 was as a whole, he was even better in the second half. In the final three months he hit .341 with a 925 OPS.
8. Brian Roberts (Orioles)
9. Dan Uggla (Marlins)
10. Ian Stewart (Rockies) [actually plays 3B, but eligible at 2B in most leagues]
11. Jose Lopez (Mariners)
These are your "category" options in roto leagues, each of whom excels at some aspect of the game, but could hurt you in others. Roberts hit 16 HR last season, which was the second-highest total of his career, and drove in 79 runs, which was a career high. I don't expect him to reach or exceed those totals in 2010. However, he will once again be among the league leaders in runs scored, with excellent stolen base totals and a decent average.
The other three are inversions of Roberts. Each has unusual power for the positions, but they are "all or nothing" kinds of hitters, who don't reach base often and don't offer much speed when they do. Lopez will hit for a slightly higher average than Uggla or Stewart, but '09 was his first 25 HR season, where Uggla has hit 30+ for three years running. Stewart is the high-risk/high-reward option here. He's only 25-years-old and spent much of '09 as a platoon player, so there's plenty of room for improvement, but there's also room for a sophomore slump, as he's a free swinger with plenty of holes (see Chris Davis). The Rockies just added Melvin Mora to their bench, suggesting that Stewart may only be one bad month from finding himself back in a platoon, and two bad months from Colorado Springs.
12. Howie Kendrick (Angels)
13. Gordon Beckham (White Sox) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
14. Rickie Weeks (Brewers)
15. Martin Prado (Braves) [also eligible at 3B and 1B in many leagues]
16. Casey McGehee (Brewers) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
This tier is all about "upside." Unless you're in a very deep league, you'd prefer that none of these guys be your first-string middle infielder, but at a utility spot, or otherwise provide depth, they offer tons of potential. One of the great tragedies of '09 was Rickie Weeks wrist injury. In the seasons opening weeks he looked like he was headed for the monster season that his owners have been expecting for years. Hopefully, that breakout is just on a ten month delay. Be cautious though. It can take a player more than a full season to re-strengthen he wrist after a major injury (see Derrek Lee and David Ortiz), so Weeks power, the quality which makes him so tempting, may not return until 2011.
McGehee replaced Weeks in Milwaukee and his performance (.301, 16 HR, 66 RBI) helped keep the Brewers in contention much longer than if they'd turned second base over to Craig Counsell. As such, McGehee earned a starting position going into 2010, at third base. I doubt, however, that he will be able to keep it. McGehee's '09 numbers look extraordinarily flukish. He never had an average above .300 or an OPS above 800 in the minors. Maybe he "discovered" his stroke upon being promoted, but I'd bet that he's just as likely to "lose" it again. The Brewers top hitting prospect, Mat Gamel, will be nipping at his heels, so he probably doesn't have much leash. By midseason, McGehee will be a utilityman.
17. Placido Polanco (Phillies) [will be eligible at 3B early in the season]
18. Orlando Hudson (Nationals?)
A couple of oldies, but goodies. If you need a stable presence, I would actually recommend taking O-Dog or Polly ahead of some of the guys in the previous tier, because though unspectacular, each is dependable. Oddly, I might even argue that Polance has a little upside, at the age of 34, because he'll be hitting somewhere in the middle of the loaded Phillies lineup (I'm guessing either second or seventh). I think he's a safe bet for .300-80-10-80-5, which isn't exactly mouth-watering, but is solid production from a guy who you can get as your third or fourth infielder.
My passion for Hudson is well-documented, but I'll simply remind everybody that he was damn good in the first half of '09 (All-Star worthy, in fact) and not nearly as bad as people think in the second half. Recent rumors have him headed to D.C., which would be a good fit for his fantasy owners, as he'd be a lock for everyday at-bats and would probably hit near the top of the order, right in front of Z-Pack and Big Donkey (Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn).
1. Chase Utley (Phillies)
2. Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
3. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
4. Brandon Phillips (Reds)
Not long ago, the big question at second base was, "Who don't I take if I don't get Jeff Kent?" The pickings were slim. But in recent years, the field has gotten progressively better, led, of course, by Chase Utley, a perennial MVP candidate who should be among the top five players off the board and will cost you close to $40 in an auction.
Some will be surprised that I rank Phillips among the elite options, but I like the consistency of his across-the-board production and, at 28, I think his best season may still be in front of him. He's been 20/20 for three years running and with more lineup protection has a legit shot at going 30/30 (as he did in '07), to go along with at least 80 R and 90 RBI. Phillips is the picture of health, with 550+ plate appearances in each of the last four seasons.
5. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
6. Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)
7. Ben Zobrist (Rays) [also eligible at SS and OF in many leagues]
There is a very strong argument for passing on the elite guys and jumping on the second tier this season, as each of these options has the potential to perform at the elite level. What keeps them out of the first tier is merely consistency. Hill and Zobrist had breakout seasons in '09, but they need to prove themselves more than "one-hit wonders." Personally, I think both are legit, as they showed consistent progression in both power and discipline throughout the minor leagues and in their first few big-league seasons.
Cano offers a slightly different quandary. He put up the biggest season of an already impressive career in '09 directly following his atrocious '08 campaign, so many will wonder what to trust. I think he's about to blossom into a batting champ. Obviously, you can't complain about his situation, hitting in the middle of a loaded lineup at a ballpark built for left-handed hitters. Cano will continue to see lots of good pitches and have plenty of run-producing opportunities. Also, as good as his '09 was as a whole, he was even better in the second half. In the final three months he hit .341 with a 925 OPS.
8. Brian Roberts (Orioles)
9. Dan Uggla (Marlins)
10. Ian Stewart (Rockies) [actually plays 3B, but eligible at 2B in most leagues]
11. Jose Lopez (Mariners)
These are your "category" options in roto leagues, each of whom excels at some aspect of the game, but could hurt you in others. Roberts hit 16 HR last season, which was the second-highest total of his career, and drove in 79 runs, which was a career high. I don't expect him to reach or exceed those totals in 2010. However, he will once again be among the league leaders in runs scored, with excellent stolen base totals and a decent average.
The other three are inversions of Roberts. Each has unusual power for the positions, but they are "all or nothing" kinds of hitters, who don't reach base often and don't offer much speed when they do. Lopez will hit for a slightly higher average than Uggla or Stewart, but '09 was his first 25 HR season, where Uggla has hit 30+ for three years running. Stewart is the high-risk/high-reward option here. He's only 25-years-old and spent much of '09 as a platoon player, so there's plenty of room for improvement, but there's also room for a sophomore slump, as he's a free swinger with plenty of holes (see Chris Davis). The Rockies just added Melvin Mora to their bench, suggesting that Stewart may only be one bad month from finding himself back in a platoon, and two bad months from Colorado Springs.
12. Howie Kendrick (Angels)
13. Gordon Beckham (White Sox) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
14. Rickie Weeks (Brewers)
15. Martin Prado (Braves) [also eligible at 3B and 1B in many leagues]
16. Casey McGehee (Brewers) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
This tier is all about "upside." Unless you're in a very deep league, you'd prefer that none of these guys be your first-string middle infielder, but at a utility spot, or otherwise provide depth, they offer tons of potential. One of the great tragedies of '09 was Rickie Weeks wrist injury. In the seasons opening weeks he looked like he was headed for the monster season that his owners have been expecting for years. Hopefully, that breakout is just on a ten month delay. Be cautious though. It can take a player more than a full season to re-strengthen he wrist after a major injury (see Derrek Lee and David Ortiz), so Weeks power, the quality which makes him so tempting, may not return until 2011.
McGehee replaced Weeks in Milwaukee and his performance (.301, 16 HR, 66 RBI) helped keep the Brewers in contention much longer than if they'd turned second base over to Craig Counsell. As such, McGehee earned a starting position going into 2010, at third base. I doubt, however, that he will be able to keep it. McGehee's '09 numbers look extraordinarily flukish. He never had an average above .300 or an OPS above 800 in the minors. Maybe he "discovered" his stroke upon being promoted, but I'd bet that he's just as likely to "lose" it again. The Brewers top hitting prospect, Mat Gamel, will be nipping at his heels, so he probably doesn't have much leash. By midseason, McGehee will be a utilityman.
17. Placido Polanco (Phillies) [will be eligible at 3B early in the season]
18. Orlando Hudson (Nationals?)
A couple of oldies, but goodies. If you need a stable presence, I would actually recommend taking O-Dog or Polly ahead of some of the guys in the previous tier, because though unspectacular, each is dependable. Oddly, I might even argue that Polance has a little upside, at the age of 34, because he'll be hitting somewhere in the middle of the loaded Phillies lineup (I'm guessing either second or seventh). I think he's a safe bet for .300-80-10-80-5, which isn't exactly mouth-watering, but is solid production from a guy who you can get as your third or fourth infielder.
My passion for Hudson is well-documented, but I'll simply remind everybody that he was damn good in the first half of '09 (All-Star worthy, in fact) and not nearly as bad as people think in the second half. Recent rumors have him headed to D.C., which would be a good fit for his fantasy owners, as he'd be a lock for everyday at-bats and would probably hit near the top of the order, right in front of Z-Pack and Big Donkey (Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn).
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Bold Predictions: Buy Low, Sell High
It's the sixth week of the season, we're nearing a quarter of the way through the season, and it's time to start seriously evaluating your fantasy team. As David Ortiz and C. C. Sabathia have proves, it's tough for a good player to stayed mired in a slump for this long. However, as Robinson Cano and Barry Zito have proved, it is possible. Here are the players I would try to snag from frustrated owners before they catch fire, as well as the once-anonymous hot-starters who I would unload before the stroke of midnight, when they turn into Chris Shelton.
Jason Bay - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates
There has been a lot of talk about Pittsburgh outfielders this season, but most of it has concerned Xavier Nady (.350, 32 RBI) and Nate McLouth (.331, 9 HR, 28 RBI). What has gone unnoticed, understandably, is the resurgent performance of Jason Bay, whose OPS dropped over 150 points in 2007, as he struggled with a variety of lingering injuries. Bay has 6 HR and 11 RBI to go with his modest .261 average, but more importantly he has shown speed (3/3 SB) and plate discipline (25 BB/26 K, .397 OBP). Bay is only 29, but he is nearing free agency and the Pirates have McLouth, Nady, Nyjer Morgan, Steven Pearce, and Andrew McCutcheon all ready for major-league playing time. Once he has proven himself healthy, Bay has more market value than Nady because of his longer track record, defensive ability, and legitimate 35 HR power. Look for the Pirates to deal him to a pitching-rich contender in need of a productive corner outfielder (i.e. Cleveland, Atlanta, San Diego). If Bay joins a big-time offense, his run-production numbers could sky-rocket.
A. J. Burnett - SP - Toronto Blue Jays
Burnett has not been able to immediately build off of his strong second-half in 2007 (5-2, 3.01 ERA), but he hasn't missed a start and his command and the life on his fastball has improved with each start. After walking nearly as many as he struck out in his first six starts, he's K'd 10 and walked only one in 6 innings this evening (though still giving up five earned runs). If Burnett's healthy, he will be dominant over the course of the season, just as he was when he came off the DL last y
ear. Some owners might be frustrated with his inconsistency so far. Pick him up for cheap and you'll be on board for the hot streak later this summer.
Robinson Cano - 2B - New York Yankees
Don't forget that last year, Cano had a 741 OPS in the first half and a 953 OPS in the second half. Granted, right now Cano's OPS is 467. Only Troy Tulowitzki is lower among qualifying hitters. But, I expect that only means that Cano's summer surge will be even more dramatic. In case you haven't noticed, the Yankees always start slow, Torre or no Torre, and they aren't as far behind Boston now (17-16, 3.5 GB) as they were last year at this time (16-17, 7 GB). Cano has already raised his OPS 43 points in the last seven games with a pair of homers. It is likely a sign that his bat is thawing out.
Rich Hill - SP - Chicago Cubs
This is an especially interesting situation for keeper leagues. Rich Hill is a 28-year-old left-handed starter who was 5th in NL in strikeouts last season, with a nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio. He began this season by walking 18 hitters in 20 innings, leading to a demotion. Owners should note, however, that Hill did not lose a game and managed a league-average ERA even with all the control problems. The Cubs have gotten strong early-season performances from Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster, but even if they maintain their pace, it is likely that the franchise is losing patience with Jason Marquis (1-2, 5.08 ERA). I expect that when Hill recovers his control, there will be a rotation spot made for him. However, even if it doesn't happen this season, take note of what has happened this year with Ervin Santana (6-0, 2.02) and Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.96), both high-potential young arms who suffered similar setbacks last season. If you've got room on your roster, Hill is somebody you want to stash away.
Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks
I won't belabor the point, since I foreshadowed his decline in a post a couple of weeks back, but I want to point out that Reynolds, after hitting .304 with 6 HR and 19 RBI in his first 19 games, is hitting .133 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, and 23 Ks(!) in his last 11. Chad Tracy has begun a rehab assignment, so soon the D-Backs will have a better replacement option than Augie Ojeda or Chris Burke.
Joe Saunders - SP - Los Angeles Angels
It's never a bad idea to have Angels pitchers. Saunders and Ervin Santana, both of whom had to fight for rotation spots this spring, have the best start (12-0) of any duo in the last decade. Saunders will probably be a valuable back-end guy throughout the season, but Santana is the guy you want to own from this pair.
Santana: 6-0, 49 IP, 38 K, 9 BB, 2.02 ERA, 0.88 WHIP
Saunders: 6-0, 48 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
While Santana has made seven quality starts (in other words, all of them), Saunders has only four. He has benefitted from a lot of offensive support. John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar will eventually rejoin this rotation (along with Santana and Jon Garland), so Saunders spot, despite his stellar showing so far, is not totally safe.
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