Bargain Basement

There were some interesting late-Hot Stove signings this past week.  Most notably, Vlad Guerrero finally landed in Baltimore, as many had been anticipating.  As I discussed last week, I'm not completely sold on this move for the Orioles because I don't think it gets them into playoff picture, but a one-year, $8 Million contract for a 35-year-old coming off a pretty impressive resurgence is totally reasonable.  I'm certainly rooting for Vlad to have enough good years in him to pile up a few HOF milestones (he currently sits at 2427 hits, 436 HR, 1433 RBI).

A much sneakier deal got done in Chicago, as Kenny Williams showed his caginess in the acquisition of Lastings Milledge.  Once considered a top prospect, Milledge, now entering his sixth season (but still only 25-years-old) has gotten pegged with the "bad attitude" label.  Certainly, his performance has been pretty putrid in New York, Washington, and Pittsburgh, but he was clearly rushed through the minors and a breakout year is well within the realm of possibility (see Delmon Young in 2010).  Milledge could steal some at-bats from Juan Pierre and provide insurance for the oft-injured Carlos Quentin.  The White Sox needed somebody to fill that role.  At $500,000, Milledge could be a steal.

There's not much left of the 2011 free agent class, but here's a couple of players who your team could still find a use for...

Jeremy Bonderman - SP

Bonderman's overall numbers in 2010 were pretty abyssmal (8-10, 5.53 ERA, 1.44 WHIP).  But the most important number was this one: 171 IP.  For a guy who missed most of the previous two season recovering from shoulder surgeries, that's a pretty impressive workload.  After such a long layoff, one can certainly see how it might take Bonderman a full year to get anywhere near full strength.  However, if he does regain at least a modicum of his former talent, he would be a downright steal.  Before his shoulder problems, he looked destined to be a solid #2 or #3 in any rotation.  He's still just 28.  The only team who's reported any interest in Bonderman thusfar is the Indians, which seems a fairly logical fit.  The Yankees seem to be collecting pitching projects and Bonderman is certainly no more of a long shot than some of those they've already brought on board.  Other reasonable suitors include the Mariners, Nationals, Cardinals, and Pirates.

Cristian Guzman - 2B/SS

Guzman didn't help his case by faring poorly as a super-utility player in Texas after a midseason trade, but he's a very underrated middle infielder who hits for a decent average, consistently puts the ball in play, and is at least an average defender at two difficult positions.  And let's face it, there's not a ton of shortstop talent around these days.  The Astros, Brewers, Pirates, and Mariners are all currently limited to guys with far worse track records than Guzman.

Orioles Brass Abandons Baby Birds?

For the first time since 1997, Baltimore baseball fans have something to get excited about.  Yes, 2010 was their 13th consecutive losing season, but they capped it off by going 34-23 (.596) under midseason managerial hire, Buck Showalter.  The excitement surrounding Buck's Baby Birds prompted Eric Karabell to predict that every team in the AL East had a legitimate shot at a .500 record in 2011.  And he's not wrong.

What odd about this offseason, however, is that after four seasons strongly committed to the youth movement - drafting, player development, and money-saving measures - Andy MacPhail, the Orioles GM, seems to be moving in a different direction, loading his roster with questionable veterans.

It began innocently enough, as MacPhail traded David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio to the D-Backs for slugging cornerman, Mark Reynolds.  Hernandez and Mickolio were both fairly promising pitchers, still in their mid-twenties.  It was testament to the Orioles farm system that they had both fallen so far back on the depth chart as to be truly expendable.  And it's not as though Reynolds is past his prime.  Though coming off a down year, he's only 27 and signed to very favorable terms through the 2012 season.  He immediately becomes Baltimore's most substantial power threat.

What the Reynolds trade does do is block the progress of top prospect Josh Bell.  Although the two-month audition at the tail end of 2010 suggested Bell isn't quite ready for "the Show," he just turned 24 and possesses a decent power profile himself...and without Reynolds propensity for leading the league in strikeouts, flirting with the Mendoza line, and flashing a iron glove.

Three days after acquiring Reynolds, MacPhail picked up another pair of infielders from the Minnesota Twins, slick-fielding shortstop, J. J. Hardy, and utilityman, Brendan Harris.  For them, he surrendered a pair of young relievers, Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobsen.  Again, both pitchers were well down the Orioles depth chart and Hardy represented a major upgrade at shortstop.  With only one year left on his contract, he won't impede the ascent of 18-year-old phenom, Manny Machado.

Shortly after New Year's Day, Baltimore added another veteran rental, 35-year-old first-baseman, Derrek Lee, looking to rebuild his market coming off his worst season since 1999.  MacPhail also signed mediocre reliever cum closer, Kevin Gregg, coming off a career year, and reclamation project, Jeremy Accardo.  He resigned 30-year-old shortstop, Cesar Izturis, after a year in which he posted the lowest OPS of any batting title eligible player in over a decade (you're welcome, Neifi Perez).  Now there are widespread reports they are nearing a deal with 35-year-old DH, Vladimir Guerrero.

What gives?  Does MacPhail really believe the O's are ready to compete in 2011?  If so, I'd have to question his sanity.  The Orioles would need to leapfrog at least two of the three AL East powerhouses - New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay - just to get into the playoff conversation.  As much as I admire the talent they've assembled, they don't have a proven frontline starter, a premier closer, or a perennial MVP candidate.  The Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees can all boast of at least two of those three things.

If MacPhail isn't delusional about his chance to contend, these moves are even more difficult to parse.  Baltimore will have it's highest payroll since 2007 (MacPhail's first year) by a rather wide margin.  They've sacrificed a pair of first-round draft picks (Vlad and Lee were both Class A free agent), as well as four pitching prospects who all have at least modest major-league careers in front of them.  And they've created some troublesome roster math.

Reynolds, Hardy, Lee, Guerrero, Izturis, Brian Roberts, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Luke Scott, are all assured roster spots.  Somebody, probably Jake Fox, will need to be the back-up catcher.  Robert Andino is out of minor-league options, which means Baltimore must either keep him in the majors or lose him.  No matter how it shakes out, Bell, as well as Nolan Reimold and/or Felix Pie, will spend far too much of 2011 either in AAA or riding major-league pine, instead of having their abilities tested and their development furthered.

Moreover, the Orioles are now committing themselves to below average defensive players at third and in at least one of the outfield spots.  The Orioles struggled on defense in 2010 (105 E, -22.9 UZR) and it could be worse in 2011.  That's never a good thing, but could be especially frustrating for a young rotation which has to face in inordinate number of very patient lineups (Yankees, Rays, Red Sox) and could/should be limited by pitching counts and innings caps.

Perhaps there is method to this madness.  Perhaps MacPhail has something else up his sleeve (trading Luke Scott, for instance).  But, so far as I can tell, the Orioles haven't made themselves enough better in the short term to compensate for the damage they may be doing to their long term prospects.    

The Face of Deja Vu

ESPN, among others, is reporting that the Rangers are close to signing a $90 Million deal with third baseman, Adrian Beltre.  On one level, this makes plenty of sense.  Beltre was an MVP candidate for the Red Sox last season.  He is a substantial defensive upgrade over Michael Young and an offensive upgrade over Vladimir Guerrero, and he's younger than either of them.  Nevertheless, I can't help feeling like we've been here before, and the ensuing results were mighty unkind.

In the winter of 2005, Beltre was a 25-year-old coming off a season in which he finished second in the MVP balloting (behind Barry Bonds), led the league in homers (48), and led all of baseball in Ultimate Zone Rating (24.8).  It was the kind of season the Dodgers had been anticipating since they promoted him to the majors at the tender age of 19.  Unfortunately, six years later, it remains the zenith of his career.

In an understandably intense bidding war, the Dodgers (and the rest of the league) lost out to the Seattle Mariners, who signed the young Beltre to a five-year, $61 Million contract, at that time the largest annual salary ever awarded to a third baseman.  To put it mildly, things did not work out.  It took Beltre four full seasons to achieve as many Wins Above Replacement as he had in 2004 alone (10.1).  He never got within 20 HR of his '04 totals or within 200 points of his '04 OPS.  During his tenure in Seattle, from '05 to '09, he ranked just 7th among major-league third baseman in WAR (13.8), his performance bettered or equaled by much cheaper players like Brandon Inge (14.4), Troy Glaus (13.3), and Mike Lowell (13.3). Moreover, most of Beltre's value came from his continually superior defense and he did little to aid the Mariners in the way they had expected, as an anchor in their otherwise power-starved lineup.  Rumors swirled around him.  He was, of course, suspected of using PEDs, based solely on the extent to which his '04 season now seemed like a massive outlier.  He was accused of being surly, of being out of shape, of playing disinterestedly following his big payday.

The extent to which Beltre disappointed everybody's expectations and was almost universally maligned allowed Theo Epstein to swoop in last offseason and make one of the finest value signing of his impressive career.  Though Beltre was nothing like the player he had been in '04, he still had a more than serviceable track record and Epstein's one-year, $10 Million offer represented an absolute high-jacking.  This would have been the case even if Beltre had merely maintained the numbers he averaged during his five years in Seattle.  Instead, freed from the pressure of being a franchise lynchpin and playing in the unfriendly confines of Safeco Field, Beltre turned in his best performance since '04...by a long shot.  He finished second in the AL in WAR (7.1), led the Red Sox in nearly every offensive category, and was, as usual, among the best defenders at his position.

Texas is, clearly, banking on the fact that the 2004 and 2010 version of Adrian Beltre are the real ones, that threaded into their already potent lineup, playing in their power-friendly ballpark, and inspired by the potential to contend for several years to come, Beltre will continue to show both superior talent and motivation.  This is, of course, a dangerous assumption.  This will represent the second time Beltre has turned one really good season into half a decade or more of really big paychecks.  By the time this contract is finished, Beltre will have been paid more over the course of his career than substantially superior players (at least in terms of average annual production to this point) like Scott Rolen, Chipper Jones, and Aramis Ramirez.  Even David Wright, whose WAR since 2005 is 50% higher than Beltre's (29.7 v. 19.9) may have a hard time equally Beltre's total earning power over the course of his career.

Although I want Jon Daniels instincts to be correct, and I can certainly imagine a scenario in which Beltre earns every cent of this contract, I can't help worrying that the Rangers panicked a bit when they failed to land Cliff Lee and threw more money at a Scott Boras client than was truly necessary (doesn't this happen every year).  Beltre will be 32-years-old when the '11 season begins.  Even if his 2010 production was not an anomaly, can we expect him to produce at that level for more than two or three years to come?  The incredible quickness and dexterity which is the key to his success as both a hitter and fielder will begin to fade by the time he reaches his mid-thirties.  Chipper Jones numbers fell off the table after he turned 36.  Rolen, Glaus, Derrek Lee, and Ron Santo (all players with notable similarities to Beltre) began to rapidly decline well before that.  Beltre's contract will pay him through at least his 37th birthday.

Jon Daniel one ace in the hole, however, is that, unlike all the players mentioned above, Beltre has almost zero injury history.  He's made 600+ plate appearances in eight of the last nine seasons.  Last year, he came out of a pair of rather gruesome collisions completely unfazed (the same could not be said of Jacoby Ellsbury, unfortunately).  If Beltre stays on the field, keeps most of his defensive chops, and is able to produce at least on the level he did in Seattle through the next four or five seasons, the Rangers won't live to regret this signing all that much.  If...

"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Texas Rangers

If it hasn't been apparent in my treatments of the Twins and the Yankees, let me be clear, Narrative Likability Factor does not portend to statistical objectivity.  If you've been following this blog throughout the season, than you're probably already aware, I'm not impartial at all when it comes to the 2010 Rangers. I've never been a Texas fan before, and I may never be again, but this particular combination of players, coaches, and front office administrators won me over instantaneously, and they will hold my rooting interest for as long as they can stay alive this October.  This is my attempt to convince you that you, too, should throw in your lot with the most soulful team in baseball:

• Performance Impairing Drugs:  Just weeks before the season began, the Rangers had to deal with reports that their manager, Ron Washington, had tested positive for cocaine the previous year.  Washington volunteered to resign, but Jon Daniels, Nolan Ryan, and the rest of the Ranger brass stood behind their skipper and appeared thoroughly nonplussed when asked to comment on the reports.  The underlying message was clear: so long as it didn't affect his ability to do his job, what Ron Washington does on his own time is his business.  This team has improved its record every year since Washington took the reigns and are now headed for their first postseason appearance in over a decade.
• The Painted Man:  Washington is, of course, not the only Ranger to have a very public struggle with drug abuse.  Josh Hamilton nearly lost his career to his addiction.  The '99 #1 pick washed out of professional baseball from 2003 until 2006.  He struggled to make his way back, his every supposed relapse the subject of national speculation, and, with a body ravaged by years of systematic poisoning, he's struggled to stay on the field.  When healthy, however, he has proven himself to be among the superlative talents in the game.  And for somebody with such gifts to have been humbled as Hamilton has, makes him all that much easier to root for.  The Hamilton story may be somewhat old news now, as the climax may still be his performance at the 2008 Home Run Derby at Yankee Stadium, but we can be certain that will change if he can lead the Rangers to their first ever World Series.
• They Could Really Use Those Postseason Gates:  The Rangers entered into this season on the verge of bankruptcy and, after a prolonged court battle, were finally put up for auction just over a month ago.  The good news has been that Nolan Ryan, the team president since 2008 and now minority owner, has been a consistent presence throughout, but it seems safe to say that the Rangers would be the first MLB franchise to go bust and life a trophy in the same season.
• Big Daddy:  Vladimir Guerrero is one of the five best players of his generation and is almost certainly headed for the Hall of Fame.  But like recent Hall of Fame inductee, Andre Dawson, Vlad has spent much of his thirties hampered by knee and back injuries which likely result from years of playing on the rockhard Astroturf in Montreal.  Vladdy was the driving force in the Angels lineup from '04-'07, winning an MVP, leading his team to the playoffs three times, and hitting .327 with an average of 33 HR and 119 RBI every season.  But, in '08 and '09, his production fell off slightly as he was limited by injuries and often forced into the DH role.  The Angels allowed Vlad to walk away this past offseason, to their divisional rival no less, for less money than they gave Hideki Matsui, about half the money they gave Bobby Abreu, and less than a third of what they're paying Torii Hunter.  Guerrero responded by once again hitting like an MVP candidate, with a .301 average, 28 HR, and 111 RBI.  He's headed to the playoffs, his former team is staying home.
• AAAA: Nelson Cruz was traded three times before his 25th birthday.  When he still hadn't become a major-league regular at age 28, many scouts believed he was one of those "AAAA players," able to dominate throughout the minors, but unable to hack it in the Show.  Over the last two seasons, however, Cruz has turned into one of the most awesome power-hitters in the American League.  He has struggled to remain healthy, but when he's in the Rangers lineup he's been good for a .544 SLG, while also hitting at a solid clip (.282) and stealing bases (36 in 44 attempts).
• The Maddux-Ryan Effect: For most of the last decade, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has been considered one of the most homer-friendly environs in the major leagues and, as a result, the Rangers have struggled to attract free agent pitchers and have consistently compiled some of the worst team ERAs in professional baseball history.  That is, until recently.  Since Nolan Ryan joined the front office and Mike Maddux became the Rangers pitching coach, the Rangers have, like the Rockies before them, refused to see their ballpark as a crutch.  Much has been made of the Ryan's very public statements about starting pitcher endurance, but that has been only one minor aspect of the Texas pitching revolution.  Yes, this season the Rangers have three pitchers with 190+ innings for the first time since 1998.  They are also throwing more strikes and inducing more groundballs, thus leading to more quality innings.  The biggest piece of the Maddux-Ryan plan, however, may be conditioning pitchers who are without ego.  The new Ranger Ace, Cliff Lee, is one of the most unflappable, workaday superstars in the game, in part because the game humbled him in spectacular fashion back in 2007, when, after averaging 15 wins and 200 innings for three straight seasons, he found himself mired in such a slump that the Indians optioned him back to the minor leagues and then left him off their postseason roster.  Colby Lewis is a former first-round pick who struggled so mightily in the majors that he spent the last two years pitching in the Japan League.  These are pitchers who've faced adversity before, and they don't flinch when a flyball that would be caught just about anywhere else lands in the sixteenth row of the Arlington bleachers.
• They're Due:  There are thirty MLB franchises.  Only three of them have never been to the World Series, and of those three - Seattle, Texas, & Washington - the Rangers are the oldest, having joined the league in 1961.  Worse yet, the Rangers are the only MLB franchise that has never even advanced as far as their League Championship Series.  They were eliminated in the ALDS in all three postseason appearances ('96, '98, '99).  Sure, teams like the Cubs and Indians have waited longer than the Rangers for a championship, but at least they've got a few dingy old depression-era banners to hang in their rafters.  Texas got nothing.  Nada.  So they're due.  

Foremost because of that final point, the Rangers are loaded with underdog credentials.  They have the lowest payroll of any of the AL playoff teams and the only NL contender that's beneath them is the Padres.  They will probably have the weakest record of any of the AL playoff teams and they're coming out of arguably the weakest division, so they have been largely an afterthought in most of the mainstream media discussions of potential ALCS matchups.  Washington is the only one of the playoff-bound managers in the AL who has no previous postseason experience (Bud Black is the only such manager in the NL).  With the exception of Lee (and Rich Harden, in the unlikely event he makes the roster), the Rangers don't have a single starting pitcher who's experienced the postseason, and Darren Oliver is the only such player in their bullpen.  All this, combined with nagging injuries, especially to Hamilton, Cruz, and Ian Kinsler, could combine to make the Texas squad a bit tight and easy pickings for one of the AL East juggernauts (probably the Rays).  Or, they could be a team of destiny and the first first-time champions since the Angels in 2002.  

Narrative Likability: A+   

An Idealistic All-Star Ballot (AL)

It's that time of year, when one could responsibly consider being an informed participant in the All-Star Voting.  Last year, we fans elected Josh Hamilton to start.  At the time, he was hitting .226 with 6 HR and had spent much of the previous three months on the D.L.  This is merely the most recent of many ridiculous selections.  From the much-publicized perspective that the All-Star game now "counts," because it determines home-field advantage for the World Series, the fact the game is still treated as an exhibition in terms of voting seems counter-intuitive.  One could, I suppose, rationalize voting for the worst players on  the AL ballot, if you favored team is from the NL.

We'll set the incongruities of the process aside for now, as I offer what I deem the most deserving candidates at each position, starting in the American League:

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...I've Got No Frickin' Clue Who's Gonna Win the AL West

It's damn sure going to be fun to watch.

You've got the Scioscia-constructed juggernaut, the Los Angeles Angels, who are coming off three consecutive division titles (and five of the last six), but look oddly unfamiliar without Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, and Chone Figgins.

There's the offseason darling, the Seattle Mariners, whose GM seems to be every sportswriter's new man-crush (myself included), even though his highest finish thusfar is third place.  The Mariners have a pair of Aces (King Felix & Cliff Lee), a pair of exceptional leadoff hitters (Ichiro & Chone Figgins), and a pair of designated hitters (Ken Griffey Jr. & Milton Bradley), but it isn't quite clear whether all the pieces will fit nicely together.

There's a redemption song being written in Texas, as Ron Washington and Josh Hamilton try to overcome offseason drug scandals (not the performance-enhancing kind), Vladimir Guerrero tries to prove his career is far from over, and Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux try to figure out how to get 200 innings out of Rich Harden.

And, finally, there are the sneaky-good Oakland Athletics.  Billy Beane has shunned household names following the Holliday-Giambi-Garciaparra debacle in 2009, but he's got tons of young talent on both side of the ball, and won't hesitate to give anybody and everybody an opportunity.  The players in the mix for the rotation, especially, could make their divisional rivals very, very uncomfortable.

At some point during the last month I've imagined every team in this division as worthy of my support.

Fantastic Questions: "Will the real Nelson Cruz please stand up?"

We've survived the Ides of March and, although your draft and auction season is probably just beginning, mine is already wrapping up.  Most blogger and fantasy analyst leagues and mocks happen well in advance of the season, so that there is a chance for commentary.  As such, I've already done 8 drafts/auction in a variety of different formats and I'm beginning to feel like I've got a pretty good sense of the trends this March and some of the questions you need to ask yourself during your draft prep, like...

How much are you willing to pay for Nelson Cruz?

RotoProfessor provides a pretty solid answer to this question and I concur.  I will err on the side of caution with Cruz this year, rather than expecting him to build upon his 33 HR performance in 2009.  Don't get me wrong, I think the power - so evidently on display during the Home Run Derby - is real.  I expect Cruz will once again be good or 20-30 HR, thanks in part to the friendly confines of the Ballpark at Arlington, and 15-20 SB, with an unremarkable average (.260 in '09).  I'd be willing to pay the going rate for such a player, which is probably $15-$18 in most leagues.  However, in my experience, there has been somebody in every league willing to pay considerably more than that, operating with the expectation that Cruz might actually have 30/30, 35/25, or even 40/30 potential.  However, I don't think that's a reasonable expectation.

What worries me most is his plate discipline and a rather alarming strikeout rate.  In the minor league he struck out 724 time in 725 games.  Last year he struck out 118 time in 128 games.  His strikout rate actually climbed over the course of the season, as the league adjusted to him, so that he had more strikeouts than games played in the second half, which is a 1/1 ratio I never like to see.

There are, of course, players who can perform quite well, even with all those whiffs.  Adam Dunn being the most obvious example.  The difference between Cruz and Dunn, however, comes down to OBP.  Adam Dunn has been averaging 115 walks a season since 2002.  Cruz picked up just 49 free passes in 2009.  He didn't just swing and miss a lot.  He swung and missed on a lot of pitches he had no chance of hitting squarely.  Until he proves himself capable of laying off pitches that are nowhere near the zone, big-league pitchers are going to find it easier and easier to get him out.  Ask Alfonso Soriano.

The good news for Cruz's fans is that Vladimir Guerrero could be quite helpful in this department.  A fellow Dominican, Guerrero is famous for his nose to toes approach, but those who have watched Guerrero consistently over the past couple years realize that he has adjusted a bit with age.  He still hates the free pass, but he realizes he can no longer go yard on pitches that bounce before they hit the plate.  If he can help to teach Cruz a modicum of plate discipline, his 2010 owners might get what they paid for.

The other big question with Nelson Cruz is for how long and how often will he continue to run.  He swiped 20 bags in 24 attempts in '09, but he only had 20+ steals in once (in 2008) in seven seasons in the minors, and he never ran with that high a success rate.  Perhaps, with the help of Ron Washington and the Texas coaches, he has become a better basestealer.  Or, perhaps, he was just particularly fortunate last year.  Not only will he slow down if he starts getting caught more often, he will slow down in a hurry if he continues to be hampered by injuries.  The Rangers definitely need him at the plate more than on the bases, so he could earn himself a red light with another spate of injuries.

Nelson Cruz isn't the worst high-risk/high-reward play for 2010, but I would much prefer one of the following players, who are younger, hit for a higher average, and also offer both power and speed, but at a lower price.

Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
Adam Jones (Orioles)
Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
Alex Rios (White Sox)
Chris Young (D-Backs)  

The Costas Confessional & Other January Musings

• The most important quote to take from McGwire's much-publicized statement on Monday is this one: "I had good years when I didn't take any, and I had bad years when I didn't take any.  I had good years when I took steroids, and I had bad years when I took steroids."  Although it doesn't necessarily excuse his actions, it is important to recognize that steroids do not create the superhuman baseball players.  Perhaps they kept him on the field more often or prolonged his career, but I honestly believe that McGwire's power was, as he puts it, a "gift."  That doesn't mean that his massive homer totals weren't somewhat pharmaceutically-assisted.  Certainly, keeping a player of his caliber healthy makes a big difference (see Ken Griffey Jr., Milton Bradley, etc.).  However, let's also remind ourselves that hulking muscles are not the only, nor even the most critical ingredient for baseball power.  Alfonso Soriano hits more homers than Kevin Youkilis.  Rail-thin guys like Alexei Ramirez and Khalil Greene have awesome power strokes.  The stigma associated with steroids is a by-product of its illegality, which is mainly a by-product of the dangerous abuse of early versions of such drugs by weightlifters, swimmers, football players, etc. in the 1970s and 1980s.  It is not far-fetched to believe that within the next decade or so, athletes in many sports will use a new generation of "safe" pharmaceuticals for exactly the purposes McGwire describes...and nobody will care.  After all, it is in the best interest of the league and the fans to have healthy, productive stars.  At that point, the backwards geezers who currently dominate the BBWAA will be too senile or too dead to continue their crusade against "cheating," and all our favorite "juicers" will be rightfully enshrined.  We will also probably discover that the pharmaceuticals they used during the first decade of the 20th century were mostly "safe" as well.  I'm not claiming that "makes it alright," but those partisans who have been demanding confessions from McGwire, A-Rod, Bonds, and Clemens need to get on the honesty train as well and admit that the "Juiced Ball" era did not destroy the game, quite to the contrary, the game is healthier than ever, and, despite the crusade about steroid-related health risks, so are the "juicers."
• McGwire's confession dominated Monday's Hot Stove session, overshadowing
  the Giants signing of Aubrey Huff.  It strikes me as a somewhat odd signing in that San Francisco is already replete with players whose best positions are first and third (Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Jesus Guzman, Matt Downs, etc.).  However, it is hard to find a bad one-year deal, especially for a player who certainly has the potential to be the much-needed middle-of-the-order presence that the Giants sorely need.  Huff is coming off the worst year of his career, but at 33, there is the strong possibility that was just a fluke.  Two years ago, in Baltimore, he was one of the AL's premier power-hitters, leading the league in extra-base hits (82) and finishing fifth in OPS (912), sixth in RBI (108), and eighth in homers (32).  If he can return to near that form, it could be enough to put the Giants over the top in the NL West.  After all, they managed 88 wins in 2009 with a truly paltry offense, and neither the Dodgers nor the Rockies have made any splashes over the offseason.  Huff and DeRosa (who will presumably play left field) should inspire at least a modest offensive improvement.  The key, of course, is for the San Francisco rotation to repeat it's dominating '09 performance and for Sandoval to prove that he is the kind of hitter you can build a lineup around (something which I firmly believe).
• I haven't yet posted my Offseason Prospectus for the Texas Rangers, who added Vladimir Guerrero over the weekend, but I will tell you that the Rangers are one of the franchises I'm most excited about heading into 2010.  I'm a big fan of Ron Washington and I was impressed by the Rangers performance in '09, especially considering they actually back-tracked offensively.  The health of Guerrero and Josh Hamilton will, of course, by crucial.  As will the development of young pitches like Neftali Feliz, Tommy Hunter, Matt Harrison, and Derek Holland.  With Millwood gone, the Rangers rotation is without a veteran presence (no, Rich Harden doesn't count), which could be ingenious or disastrous.  Either way, I'm looking forward to watching.  The Rangers are expecting a return to form from Vladdy, whose lifetime numbers at Arlington are pretty encouraging.  In fifty games in the Rangers home ballpark, Guerrero has 14 HR, 33 RBI, a .394 average, and 1175 OPS.  As far as the Rangers see it, even if Vlad is a disappointment, at least he won't be destroying them every time they play the rival Angels.  The only downside of the Guerrero signing is that it could impede the playing time of three breakout players from the 2009 squad.  In all likelihood, injuries will solve this problem, but there are currently two outfield spots available for Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, and Julio Borbon.  Cruz was one of the big stories of the first half, earning himself an All-Star selection, and finished with 33 HR, 20 SB, and an 856 OPS.  Murphy started slow, but from June on, he managed an 814 OPS with 15 HR.  The 23-year-old Borbon didn't join the team until August, but in the final two months he hit .316 with 29 runs scored, 19 stolen bases, and a 802 OPS.  I imagine Borbon will leadoff and play centerfield on Opening Day, with Hamilton and Cruz on either side and Guerrero at DH.  Murphy will spell Cruz against especially tough right-handers and bide his time waiting for one of the veterans to come up lame. 
  

Offseason Prospectus #2: The Los Angeles Angels

Angels fanatic, True Grich, made some early predictions regarding Anaheim's free agents. Well, so far he's one-for-one. Within 24 hours of the official end of the season, the Angels resigned Bobby Abreu for two years and $19 Million. Not quite the bargain basement price they got last spring ($5 Mil.) before Abreu drove in over a hundred runs for his seventh consecutive season and became a clubhouse leader and de facto batting instructor, helping several of his teammates in the pursuit of career highs.

During the ALDS against the Red Sox, Torii Hunter described Bobby Abreu as "my favorite player." Over the course of a single season, Abreu became so popular among fans and teammates that the Angels appear to have prioritized his contract over those of long time Halos like John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero, and Chone Figgins. And, it's hard to fault them.

According to FanGraphs, Abreu was worth over $11 Million in 2009, for just his on-the-field production during the regular season, and has been worth at least that much in ten of his last eleven seasons, so when you factor in potential playoff production and intangibles like leadership, Abreu will likely well exceed the approximately $9 Million he'll get in each of the next two seasons (Abreu's contract also includes a $9 Mil. option for 2012, with a $1 Mil. buyout). The bad news for the Angels is that they still have a lot of work to do this offseason.

Free Agents:

Kelvim Escobar (33) RHSP

Chone Figgins (31) 3B

Vladimir Guerrero (35) DH/RF

John Lackey (31) RHSP

Darren Oliver (38) LHRP

Robb Quinlan (32) 3B/1B

Arbitration Eligible:

Erick Aybar (25) SS

Maicer Izturis (28) 2B/SS

Howie Kendrick (25) 2B

Jeff Mathis (26) C

Mike Napoli (27) C

Joe Saunders (28) LHSP

Jered Weaver (26) RHSP

Reggie Willits (28) OF

ETA 2010?:

Trevor Bell (23) RHSP

Hank Conger (22) C

Freddy Sandoval (27) 3B

Brandon Wood (24) 3B/SS

Unfortunately for the Angels, because it is a rather thin free agent class in 2010, Lackey and Figgins will both be among the five most-coveted players on the market, driving up the price of their services. And, as you can see, the Angels not only face potentially expensive free agent decisions, but also have a number of very good young players who are due for sizable raises in arbitration. It may be the winter for them to consider multi-year deals for guys like Weaver, Saunders, and Aybar.

The Angels are not a team that is reluctant to spend money, but they usually budget for one or two major free agents, not three or four. To make matters worse, for the first time in years they face some serious competition in their own division. Both the Rangers and Mariners were among 2009's most pleasant surprises, finishing with 87 and 85 wins respectively, and there is no reason to expect either will be any worse in 2010. There is no room for stepping backward if the Angels want to return to the postseason for the fourth consecutive year and the sixth time in seven seasons.

The good news for Angels fans is that they won't have to wait long to get a sense of their team's intentions. The Abreu signing is one in a long line of Angels moves made very early in the "hot stove" season. In the next couple weeks, I expect the Angels will also make reasonable offers to Lackey and Figgins, maybe others as well, and if those are rejected, will start looking elsewhere very quickly.

Vladimir Guerrero is one of the most popular (and best) players in Angels history, but his marked decline over the last two seasons, due in part to injuries, combined with the bevy of corner-outfield and DH-type players in the Angels system, may signal the end of Vladdy era. If he wants to stay in southern California, it will almost certainly require a dramatic paycut, perhaps as part of an incentive and option laden contract. Guerrero is a very proud player and he may, instead, choose to auction his services to the highest bidder, and their will be interested parties. The Angels worst nightmare is seeing the 35-year-old have a resurgent season as the DH for the Mariners (1089 career OPS @ Safeco) or Rangers (1175 career OPS @ Arlington).

Figgins is also a popular player, a career Angel with ties to the community. He is also among the best leadoff hitters in the game, in a year that several big-market teams (Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, etc.) could be looking for a top-of-the-order hitter. Figgins has settled at third base over his last couple seasons in Anaheim, but if he were willing to consider the super-utility role he excelled at earlier in his career, his flexibility would probably be worth millions of dollars to some franchises.

The likelihood of a Figgins exodus is increased by the fact that the Angels have several potential replacements already in-house. Brandon Wood has been waiting awhile for the chance at an everyday job. He has slugged 20+ HR in the minors for five straight seasons (homering approximately once in every eighteen plate appearances), so it's clear there's not much left for him to prove at AAA. The Angels also have Freddy Sandoval, who was injured for much of '09, but hit .335 at Salt Lake in '08. And, they could probably work Maicer Izturis into the third base rotation, if they decide to give Howie Kendrick more at-bats against right-handed pitching.

John Lackey represents the most difficult quandary for the Angels brass. He is their undeniable Ace, yet he hasn't made thirty starts since '07 and (surprisingly) he's won more than fourteen games only once in his career. He's only 31-years-old, so his best years could still be in front of him (ala Jon Lieber), although his struggles with "fitness" could make him more like Bartolo Colon, who had his last good season at the age of 32. Because he is clearly the best free agent pitcher on the market, somebody is going to give Lackey a long-term, big-money deal, regardless of the risk. If it isn't the Angels, they will probably choose to sign a back-end innings-eater (perhaps a Jarrod Washburn renaissance?) and hope that an true Ace emerges from the trio of Weaver, Ervin Santana, and Scott Kazmir, each of whom have the talent to rise to the occasion.

Rumors that the Angels have been exploring a Milton Bradley for Gary Matthews Jr. swap, though probably unfounded (remember how well Mike Scioscia got along with Jose Guillen?), do suggest that the Angels front office will be willing to explore creative solutions this winter. They have always valued their prospects very highly, and have been rewarded for their patience with players like Santana, Juan Rivera, and Kendry Morales, but the Abreu signing and the Kazmir trade, combined with the fact that they don't have a single player signed beyond 2012, may suggest that Los Angeles is embracing a "win now" mentality.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

SS Erick Aybar (S)

RF Bobby Abreu (L)

CF Torii Hunter (R)

1B Kendry Morales (S)

DH Hideki Matsui (L)

RF Juan Rivera (R)

2B Howie Kendrick (R)

C Mike Napoli (R)

3B Maicer Izturis (S)

SP Scott Kazmir (L)

SP Jared Weaver (R)

SP Joe Saunders (L)

SP Ervin Santana (R)

SP Trevor Bell (R)

CL Brian Fuentes (L)

SU Kevin Jepsen (R)

SU Fernando Rodney (R)

MR Scot Shields (R)

MR Jason Bulger (R)

LOOGY Brian Shouse (L) FA

SWING Matt Palmer (R)

C Jeff Mathis (R)

IF Brandon Wood (R)

IF Freddy Sandoval (S)

OF Gary Matthews Jr. (S)