Who should be the Twins starter in ALDS Game 1?

With another White Sox loss (7 in a row, geesh) and another Twins victory last night, Minnesota's magic number is 2, meaning they will almost certainly be the first team to clinch, perhaps as soon as tonight. The question will then be, how eagerly will Gardenhire pursue home-field advantage?  The Twins are neck-and-neck with the Yankees and Rays at this point, so they'll have to play dominant ball over the next two weeks in order to come out with the top record, especially since following the New York series, Tampa will be getting rich on Seattle, Baltimore, and Kansas City.  

Gardy's already announced that he's going with a six-man rotation for the next couple turns, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Twins can't win a lot of those games, facing teams like Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City.  It would, however, probably require him to continue to lean heavily on relievers like Jesse Crain and Matt Capps, while playing Joe Mauer and Jime Thome almost everyday, and my inclination is that all those guys could use some rest.

I know Gardy isn't exactly a stats guys, but when it comes to setting a playoff rotation, it's hard to ignore these:

Scott Baker - Home: 8-3, 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, Away: 4-6, 5.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Nick Blackburn - Home: 6-3, 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, Away: 3-7, 6.99 ERA, 1.70 WHIP

Brian Duensing - Home: 6-1, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, Away: 4-1, 2.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Francisco Liriano - Home: 7-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, Away: 7-4, 4.19 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Carl Pavano - Home: 8-4, 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, Away: 9-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

Kevin Slowey - Home: 8-4, 3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, Away: 5-2, 4.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

What this suggests to me is that home-field advantage makes a big difference to the Twins, not necessarily in whether or not they can win a five-game series, but in terms of which pitchers give them the best opportunity for doing so.  Frankly, there's no way I give Blackburn a start away from Target Field, regardless of his recent hot streak.  I also make sure that Pavano is starting at least one of my road games, two if that's possible.  If all other factors are moot, here's how I think you'd set it up:

w/ Home Field:

Liriano (H), Duensing (H), Pavano (R), Slowey (R), Liriano (H)

w/o Home Field:

Pavano (R), Liriano (R), Duensing (H), Blackburn (H), Pavano (R)

The other thing Gardy should take into account is the fact that Yankee Stadium is tailored to left-handed hitters, so left-handed pitchers usually fair better there, thus perhaps tempting him to go against Liriano and Duensing's home/road splits.  Undoubtedly, he's waiting to see who his opponent is before setting the rotation.  The Yankees have a .625 W% against RHP this year, compared to .574 against LHP. Tampa is the exact opposite: .561 v. RHP, .667 v. LHP.  So, basically, the argument for Pavano over Liriano to get two starts makes much more sense if the Twins are starting the series in Tampa Bay, rather than in New York or in Minnesota.  

At the end of the day, however, while I think these stats should be taken into account when deciding whether to go with Blackburn over Slowey or Baker, I want my best pitcher taking the hill for two starts in a short series, no matter what the splits say.  And the best pitcher on the Twins is Liriano, and it's not really close:

Liriano - 14-8, 3.44 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.38 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 0.25 HR/9, 2.44 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), 6.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)

Pavano - 17-11, 3.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.80 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 3.2 WAR

Let me break this down a little.  The Yankees and Rays rank 3rd and 5th in the AL in homers this season.  Both teams, but especially the Yankees, score a high percentage of their runs off the long ball.  Pavano is three times more likely to give up homers.  Pavano has also been a little lucky this season in terms of batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  Generally, when hitters manage to put the ball in play, it drops for a hit around 30% of the time.  Pavano has been are 28%, while Liriano has been around 34%.  Neither is an incredible outlier, but this explains to some extent why the FIP statistic theorizes that over a prolonged period of time, if Pavano and Liriano pitched under the same exact circumstance, Pavano's ERA would be a little higher than it is (3.92), while Liriano's would be a full run lower than it is.

But what really strikes me here is the Wins Above Replacement gap, with Liriano being three wins more valuable than Pavano.  WAR takes into account things like the quality of competition, the places the pitcher made his specific starts, etc.  Basically, what WAR is telling us is that although Liriano has been a bit unlucky in terms of wins and ERA, he's about twice as valuable a pitcher as Pavano.  This, I think you'll agree, is backed up by watching them pitch.  While Liriano has suffered from injury and inconsistency over the course of his career, he has frequently shown the ability to be a dominant "Ace," as he has been doing throughout this year.  Pavano, despite an excellent performance in 2010, has never really been that kind of pitcher.  Maybe he was in 2004 with the Marlins (18-8, 3.00 ERA), but the 34-year-old version is considerably changed with long intervening track record of mediocrity.

Obviously, it would be great to see Pavano dominate the Yankees in New York, wreaking vengeance for years of ridicule and abuse.  However, this story is all the more powerful if it unfolds in game two or game three, especially if the Twins already have a series lead.  

Fantastic Thoughts: "Mark Buehrle may not be much to look at, but he's got a great personality." (Starting Pitcher Preview)

Rather than ranking hundreds of pitchers in a fashion which can be frustrating to manage during your draft or auction, I suggest grouping pitchers according to types.  This can be done in a number of ways, not necessarily exclusively those that I've outlined below, but I like to aim for getting at least one pitcher from each of my tiers (with the exception of #7, where I've put a number of guys who I will be flat-out ignoring).  You can still take a second or third guy from any one of the categories, if it fits your strategy or they are being undervalued, but this method will protect you somewhat from ending up with too many injury risks, too many unproven youngsters, too many low-strikeout veterans, or overspending on pitching in the early rounds.  It's not a perfect system, but I can boast that in the keeper league I invented it for I have now led the league in pitching staff scoring for three consecutive seasons, even though I only spend about 25% of my money on pitching.

Also, keep in mind, that although pitchers who I've grouped together share some particular trait, their potential and their risk can vary dramatically from #1 to #20, which also roughly suggests where they'll be available in the draft.  Say, for instance, that the first two pitchers I select are Matt Cain (#11) and Carlos Zambrano (#9), I will probably try to get a top five guy from the "upside" group and at least a top ten guy from the "rubber arms" group.  However, if I already have Roy Halladay (#1) and Yovani Gallardo (#6), I'll probably wait until deeper in the draft to spring for guys like Derek Lowe (#15), Manny Parra (#17), and Gavin Floyd (#11).  You probably don't want to just lift my tiers verbatim, but rather design your own to fit the particular scoring rules and roster requirements of your league.


#1: Bonafide Aces

1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
2. Tim Lincecum (Giants)
3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)
4. Johan Santana (Mets)
5. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
6. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
7. Cliff Lee (Mariners)
8. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)
9. Dan Haren (D-Backs)
10. Jon Lester (Red Sox)
11. Matt Cain (Giants)
12. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

If you are going to draft a pitcher in the first five rounds of a standard (10-team) league, make it be one of these fellows.  Now, I'm not saying you need a pitcher that early in the draft.  There are plenty of workable strategies that don't require a bonafide Ace, but if you go that route, go with these proven commodities.  Every one of these players has had multiple seasons of excellence and remains in the prime of his career.

You can bicker with my rankings, especially at the top.  I chose Halladay over Lincecum mainly because he'll get a lot more run support, and therefore have a better chance at accumulating wins, but there's a strong chance Lincecum leads him in strikeouts by a sizable margin.  If there is any uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana's health by the middle of Spring Training, he falls out of this class.  Same goes for Carpenter and Lee.  Again, if you're drafting a pitcher early, you need somebody who is at least seemingly without risk.

#2: Aces?

1. Zack Greinke (Royals)
2. Brandon Webb (D-Backs)
3. Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
4. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
5. Josh Johnson (Marlins)
6. Yovani Gallardo (Brewers)
7. Javier Vazquez (Braves)
8. Matt Garza (Rays)
9. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
10. Ricky Nolasco (Marlins)
11. Cole Hamels (Phillies)
12. Scott Kazmir (Angels)
13. Jake Peavy (White Sox)

I'm perfectly content with one of these hurlers as a #1 pitcher.  All have proven their ability to pitch like an Ace.  Just don't reach for them too early, because either youth (Jimenez), health (Johnson), or an inexplicable disposition (Zambrano) have prevented them from doing it consistently.

It will be tempting to overreach for Greinke after his Cy Young season.  Sure, I think he has permanently "arrived," but the 2009 numbers are difficult to duplicate, especially as he continues to pitch for the worst team in baseball.  There is no doubt that the prolonged frustration and perfectionism which results from pitching in front of a bad defense that never scores you any runs can have an effect on the psyche and eventually the stats of even great pitchers.  We saw it with Cliff Lee in the first half of '09 and with Matt Cain in '08.

#3: Rubber Arms

1. A. J. Burnett (Yankees)
2. John Lackey (Red Sox)
3. James Shields (Rays)
4. Jered Weaver (Angels)
5. Roy Oswalt (Astros)
6. Wandy Rodriguez (Astros)
7. Edwin Jackson (D-Backs)
8. Bronson Arroyo (Reds)
9. Ted Lilly (Cubs)
10. Mark Buehrle (White Sox)
11. Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
12. Scott Baker (Twins)
13. Joe Saunders (Angels)
14. John Danks (White Sox)
15. Derek Lowe (Braves)
16. Kevin Millwood (Orioles)
17. Joe Blanton (Phillies)
18. Andy Pettitte (Yankees)

Guys from this tier are notoriously underrated.  In fact, you'll likely end up selecting one of your high-upside #4 or #5 guys prior to somebody from the bottom half of this list.  But, by the end of the season, these guys will have quietly accumulated the stats to justify at least #3 status and, as such, will have a very special place in your heart.  The most underrated statistic in fantasy baseball is 30+ games started.

I could confidently sell you on any one of these guys, but this season I'll honor Joe Saunders, who, in 2009, posted his second consecutive season of 31 starts, 185+ innings, and 16+ wins.  His ERA rose above where you'd like it (4.60), mainly due to a rough midsummer stretch, but he finished strong, going 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his final eight starts.  He doesn't turn 29 until June and he pitches in the midst of a fairly deep rotation on a team that was second in the league in scoring in 2009.  It's a fine situation.    

Prospecting

Fantasy baseball junkies are dangerously nearing overdose after the surprising injection of young talent in early August, especially Justin Upton (Diamondbacks), Adam Jones (Mariners), and Delwyn Young (Dodgers). Milwaukee has three rookies playing every day and another in the rotation. Detroit is calling up Jordan Tata. Danny Richar's playing everyday in Chicago. Lastings Milledge is back with the Mets. Billy Butler has joined the Royals. Even the Yankees are supporting cheap labor in the form of Phil Hughes. All of these teams, with the exception of Butler's Royals, are in the thick of pennant races, which suggest a change in the accepted "book," which suggested you didn't introduce a rookie in the second half unless you had a catastrophic injury or were completely out of it. The season-making performances of midseason callups like Jeff Francoeur, Russell Martin, and Jered Weaver in recent years no doubt have something to do with changing the thinking of general managers around the league. While there was a great deal of activity at this years trade deadline, it will be interesting to see whether the Indians get as much out of Kenny Lofton down the stretch as Arizona gets out of Upton, or Seattle gets out of Jones. Will Kyle Kendrick outperform Kyle Lohse in Philadelphia? We may see more rookies in August. We will definitely see more rookies in September, when the rosters expand. Here are some names you might not recognize (you won't find Felix Pie or Philip Humber on this list), but who will be known by fantasy junkies by next spring at the latest.

Steven Pearce - 1B - Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates traded for Adam LaRoche last year, giving up Mike Gonzalez, as well as Brent Lillibridge (SS) and Jamie Romak (OF). Both Lillibridge and Romak have put together good minor league seasons. In fact, if the Braves weren't so loaded with middle infield talent, we would probably see Lillibridge in the majors this year. As usual, the Braves came away from this trade a winner, even though Mike Gonzalez is going to miss a year to injury. LaRoche has struggled with the Pirates. He is significantly off the pace he set during a career year in Atlanta in 2006, over a hundred points off in Slugging Percentage, and forty points in Batting Average. He is dead last among NL first basemen in AVG, SLG, OBP, runs, hits, and RBI. But, perhaps more importantly, in a move common to the Pirates of the last decade, this thoroughly mediocre veteran is blocking their best young talent. After setting an assortment of school records during two seasons at the University of South Carolina, Steven Pearce has moved quickly through the minor leagues, scorching at every stop. This year he has made three stops - High A, AA, and AAA - with a combined .338 average and a 1.046 OPS. After hitting .357 with 2 HR in his first 9 games with the AAA Indianapolis Indians, it seems reasonable to expect that Pearce will get a good long look in Pittsburgh this September.

Rick Ankiel - OF - St. Louis Cardinals

He was subject to perhaps the most infamous big-league meltdown in baseball history, challenged only by Chuck Knoblauch in recent memory. After finishing second in Rookie of the Year balloting in 2000, Ankiel was completely unable to find the plate and set a postseason record for wild pitches. Now he's back, at the age of 27, but as a rightfielder with outstanding athleticism, a 95-mph canon, and impressive power. But, still thinking like a pitcher, he believes everything is a strike. At AAA Memphis this season he has slugged 32 HR and 89 RBI in only 101 games. He's also struck out 88 times and drawn only 24 walks. This is indicative of an all-or-nothing Rob Deer-esque power hitter. Such a player might be valuable to the depleted Cardinals, who need to focus their free agent dollars on pitching, especially if Ankiel can develop just enough plate discipline to make himself more Adam Dunn-esque.

Kevin Slowey - SP - Minnesota Twins

Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, and Scott Baker are on everybody's radar because of they are being groomed at the major league level this season. However, Slowey was 3-0 for the Twins during a seven start cup of coffee in the first half. His ERA was nonetheless 5.84, so he must of benefited from some Morneau-sized run support. However, back in the minors he has gone 8-3, with a 1.89 ERA, and seven times as many strikeouts as walks (84/12). Minnesota is only six games out. They have an interesting remaining schedule. 21 games against the White Sox, Rangers, and Royals, teams they should be able to handle. And, 18 games against the Mariners, Indians, and Tigers, the teams they will presumably be chasing. If the Twins get within striking distance, look for Slowey to replace Carlos Silva.

Sean Gallagher, Jeff Zamardzija, Mark Holliman - SP - Chicago Cubs

Gallagher is probably the only of these three that might be legitimately major league ready, and I wouldn't be taking a flier on any of them in my fantasy league. However, I leave you with this reasoning: Do you think the Cubs believe that there will be two consecutive World Series winners who consider Jason Marquis a quality fifth starter? Over the last three seasons, in the second half Jason Marquis is 10-20 with an ERA around 6.00. Lou Pinella has been complaining that he doesn't have a long reliever (a.k.a. Mop-up Man). He sure does. He just has him in the rotation.