Gold Gloves Meaningless, Laughable...As Usual

For those of you acquainted with the sabermetric argument for defensive statistics, there won't be much news here, but I want to make my annual rant about the Gold Glove voting, which serious students of the game stopped taking seriously a long time ago, but which is still used to incentivize contracts, on Hall of Fame plaques, and by a hoard of ignorant pundits annually.  Here's the basics.

Obviously, we all prefer the aspects of the game which can be measured with our own eyes.  Unfortunately, defense is something that can only effectively evaluated over the long term (even one season is kind of a small sample size).  Every athlete in the league is capable of the occasional web gem.  We can't allow ourselves to be conned into hyperbolic attestations based on a single play or short series of plays spanning a few games.  As a result, nobody can hope to see enough baseball each season to be capable of making reasoned judgements without consulting some form of statistic.  If you watch your team everyday, you probably know pretty confidently which of your defenders are good, great, fine, weak, and ugly, and you could probably get confirmation of those observations using statistics.  But you can't make a reasoned, objective judgment about how your shortstop or left-fielder stacks up against the rest of the league, because you watch the 29 other teams but rarely.  To make the Gold Glove a meaningful award, the voters have to rely of some conglomeration of statistics.  Otherwise they are, as I've stated ad nauseum, meaningless and laugable.  

I openly admit that no defensive metric is perfect.  Every position demands a variety of skills and every player brings a different tools to the table.  Vlad Guerrero still has an exceptional throwing arm, but as he showed during Game One of the World Series, he's no longer very flexible or fleet of foot.  Juan Pierre has exceptional speed, but has a noodle arm and the tendency to take meandering routes to balls in the gap.  Any defensive assessment is, at last, imperfect, regardless of how much observational and statistical data we bring to the table.  We should, however, recognize that the advanced metrics (UZR is the most readily available) are based upon the charting of every play that every player is involved in.  As such, they do a lot of work that our eyes cannot.  There are flaws in the charting systems, certainly, but they get better with every passing year.  And, if you are really geeked on defense, you can look at something like John Dewan's Fielding Bible, which will breakdown not only "overall" defensive performance, but analyze how players approach specific types of plays (coming in v. going out, up-the-middle v. in-the-hole, around the bag v. off the line, etc.).

Since no one stat tells the whole story (although UZR comes pretty close), certain comparisons are too close to call.  Rob Neyer might suggest that Brett Gardner was marginally better than Carl Crawford this year, but both were extremely good.  And Neyer would happily admit that the small difference between them could be related to their ballparks, pitching staffs, and the simple fact that they didn't get exactly the same set of potential chances.  As such, I don't think it's all that unreasonable to give Crawford the hardware.  He's been an elite defensive outfielder for far longer than Gardner, so we know there's nothing the least bit flukey about his 2010 numbers.  The same can honestly be said about the choice of Evan Longoria over Adrian Beltre and Kevin Kouzmanoff, the choice of Troy Tulowitzki over Brendan Ryan, the choice of Albert Pujols over Ike Davis, etc.

All told, I'd say 13 of the 18 Gold Glove recipients were at least modestly deserving this season, which is actually pretty good, so I'm going to reserve my comments for the ones who clearly weren't:

AL SS (9 Q):	UZR	RF	FPCT	ZR	OOZ	RngR	ErrR	INN	Errors
Derek Jeter	-4.7 (#7)	3.78 (#8)	.989 (#1)	6.63 (#2)	38 (#9)	-11.8 (#9)	6.5 (#1)	1303 (#4)	6 (#1)
Elvis Andrus	0.1 (#4)	4.48 (#4)	.976 (#4)	5.61 (#6)	46 (#6)	1.3 (#4)	-2.6 (#8)	1291 (#5)	16 (#4)
Cliff Pennington	9.9 (#2)	4.93 (#1)	.966 (#7)	5.01 (#9)	53 (#4)	9.4 (#1)	0.6 (#5)	1304 (#3)	25 (#9)
Alexei Ramirez	10.8 (#1)	4.89 (#2)	.974 (#6)	5.09 (#8)	67 (#1)	8.4 (#2)	1.0 (#4)	1376 (#1)	20 (#7)

Let's get this out of the way.  Derek Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove for his performance in 2010.  Jeter has become the posterchild for all that is wrong with the voting process.  There's no doubt, in fact, that the exposes which originated out of Baseball Prospectus a few years back actually spurred Jeter to rededicate himself to defense and in '08 and '09 he was better than he'd ever been (though still not nearly the best).  At this point, however, his age has merely caught up to him, and even stalwart Yankee fans will admit he's mediocre...at best.  He has hardly any mobility on either side and has one of the weakest arms at his position.

What he is, however, is very sure-handed on balls hit directly at him, which explains his league-leading fielding percentage.  It also explains why Alexei Ramirez created nearly twice as many outs outside the average shortstop zone and was involved in nearly 100 more plays.  According to FanGraphs, all that range (not to mention his incredible throwing arm) helped Ramirez to save his team approximately fifteen more runs than Captain Intangible over the course of the 2010 season.

Jeter's isn't the only Gold Glove causing accusations of Yankee bias...

FireJoeMorgan.com About To Go The Way Of FireEricBruntlett.com?

The biggest news so far this offseason may be the prompt dismissal of the longest-tenured national broadcast team in professional baseball, Jon Miller and Joe Morgan.  There have long been objections to Morgan's stubborn subjectivity and frequent bouts of megalomania masquerading as nostalgia, but ESPN finally pulled the plug following a second failed attempt at enlivening the broadcast with some fresh blood. In 2009, they temporarily turned to Steve Phillips, with hilarious results.  One might even surmise that the weekly public emasculations drove Phillips into the arms of Bristol interns.  This year the network forced Orel "Bulldog" Hershiser upon the Un-Dynamic Duo.  Living up to his nickname, I'd say Hershiser held his ground, defending himself calmly and articulately against Morgan's tendency to contradict everything he had to say with condescension and even vitriol.  I wouldn't be surprised if Bulldog is back in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball booth in 2011, alongside some new partners.  Although I've been watching Sunday Night broadcasts on mute for most of the last half-decade, I will admit feeling a slight pang when reading the announcement.  Miller and Morgan were beloved figures in my childhood, before I realized that Morgan's color commentary had about as much variety as a Speak 'N' Spell.  And, although I find his pandering unfortunate (but probably necessary), I still find Miller to be a fine radio-style play-by-play man with a soothing voice.  They won't be missed, but they will be remembered.    

Jhonny Come Lhately

The free agent sweepstakes got started this week with a relatively underwhelming deal for Jhonny Peralta (2 Years/$11.25 Million with a $7 Million option for '13).  Peralta did a satisfactory job for Detroit after being acquired at the deadline.  His defense at shortstop is certainly suspect.  With Peralta and Carlos Guillen in the middle infield, the Tigers might want to consider employed a "rover" to stand behind the second base bag.  But Peralta can hit a little.  By wrapping him up, alongside the rangy Brandon Inge, the Tigers have at least bought themselves some payroll certainty so they can concentrate on replacing Magglio Ordonez and Johnny Damon, and perhaps give Miguel Cabrera a little lineup protection.  Detroit is finally out from under the strangulating contracts they gave to Ordonez, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson.  All told, their commitments could drop as much as 50% from '10 to '11, so Dombrowski may again be a player this winter.  With Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello fronting a potentially dominant rotation, the Tigers may not be that far from contending in their mediocre division.

SPH S.S.S. Update

Those who followed my 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey may be interested to know that no fewer than five of the eight participants will be free agents this winter.  It would've been six had it not been for the Dodgers eagerness to wrap up Ted Lilly before he got a chance to test the market (3 yrs./$33 Million).  Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, and Jeff Francis will all likely be pushed into single-season, incentive-laden deals, since none of them were able to prove themselves healthy before the end of the year.  Freddy Garcia, on the other hand, threw over 150 innings before being shut down with a minor back injury in September.  He was far from dominant, but could be very tempting for teams interested in a cheap innings-eater to slot in to the back of their youthful rotation.  Detroit could be a logical fit, in fact, as could Cleveland, Baltimore, St. Louis, or Washington.  

The most interesting player from amongst the survey participants is definitely Jeremy Bonderman.  Bonderman ended the year poorly, but showed flashes of his former potential and did not make any return trips to the D.L.  He's still in his twenties and was once among the most promising young players in the A.L.  New scenery could be good for him, as will another year of remove from his injury.  Perhaps he's ready for the Dave Duncan treatment in 2011?

B-Stars

It'll be several months before Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, and Adrian Beltre have all signed and we can start identifying potential steals from amongst this free agent class, but I'd direct your attention to a couple underrated players hitting the market.

Miguel Olivo's production fell off the table in the second half, to the extent that it almost looks like he might've been playing through an injury.  But Olivo really should've been the NL starter at the All-Star Game, after hitting .325 with 11 HR and a 925 OPS in his first three months with Colorado.  His inability to maintain that pace isn't too surprising, but Olivo has definitely proved himself an outstanding game-caller and thrower, who is also a better than average hitter for his position.  Catchers of his caliber are truly rare, yet he's been consistently overlooked (which happens when you play for Florida and Kansas City).  I expect he could be a good fit for the Reds, Mets, Mariners, or Rangers.

The Peralta signing is explained in part by the fact that the middle infield class is very weak this year.  As such, this may finally be the winter that Orlando Hudson gets the multiyear deal he so richly deserves.  O-Dog was clearly beloved by his Minnesota teammates.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if he agrees to return.  He was the eighth most valuable second-baseman in 2010, worth more than $12 Million according to FanGraphs for the second year in the row.  Despite the consistency of his production (with one minor hiccup during an injury-plagued 2008), Hudson has had to accept a succession of one-year deals for much less than he's worth.  The Cubs, Astros, Mets, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, and Twins all need to fill gaping holes at second base and the only other free agents who play there are utilitymen like Felipe Lopez, David Eckstein, Bill Hall, and Cristian Guzman.  Hudson might finally have the bargaining leverage he needs.

What Orlando Hudson isn't saying...

First of all, Happy Jackie Robinson Day!

Here are just a couple of the many things one could accurately say in tribute to the man who was, undeniably, the most important player in baseball history:

1.) Jackie Robinson was a tremendously skilled athlete whose success as a baseball player also depended on his ability to gain and maintain the respect of his teammates, many of whom viewed him with extraordinary skepticism.

2.) Jackie Robinson was never afraid to tackle the difficult and uncomfortable issue of race and when he did, his answers, though often impassioned and sometimes unpopular, were always reasoned and articulate.

As it happens, although there is a difference in the degree of both their athletic skills and the acumen of their thoughts, both those statements could also be used to describe Torii Hunter and Orlando Hudson.

Neither Hudson nor Hunter is probably headed toward baseball immortality, but both are All-Star players who, like Robinson, have built their reputations not only with sheer talent, but also hustle, heart, and humility.  Even those who are narrow-minded and reductive enough to depend on such a cliche have to admit that these are guys who "play the game right."

Both Hunter and Hudson have recently and rather mildly expressed concern regarding the position of African-American players in the game 63 years after Jackie Robinson began its integration.

Their outspokenness, however mediated, has spurred an eruption of message board malice and twittering ignorance.  Surprise, surprise.

Reading and responding to the hateful verbiage being spilled on Orlando recently, even by major media outlets, will only lead to ranting and rage, which to some extent dignifies patently the undignified opinions.

I will merely point out, however, that both Hunter and Hudson are thoughtful, good-natured players, who have been popular, even beloved, on every team they've played for and seem to be regarded favorably even by their opponents.  Those who seek to characterize them as "angry brothers" and lump them together with Milton Bradley, Elijah Dukes, and other temperamental black athletes, even as they petulantly protest claims of racism, practice it.  They reveal their bigotry in a particularly insidious and ugly fashion.  Of such commenters I will say only this, in the words of Samuel L., "Yes they deserve to die and I hope they burn in hell."

The more intelligent and earnest men, like Rob Neyer and Tom Tango, who have sought to grapple with Hudson's statements by actually testing their validity, I offer some kudos.  I am persuaded, certainly, that many older players, including perhaps Jermaine Dye (who was Hudson's primary subject), bring with them a combination of injury risk, defensive inefficiency, positional inflexibility, and expense which make them an unwise investment for many teams.

I am all for general managers getting smarter, which I think they're doing, generally.  However, I'm not convinced that getting smarter always and necessarily requires closing the door on long productive (and, in some cases, legendary) players.  Certainly, one can understand how Orlando Hudson might wonder, what is it that Jim Edmonds and Jason Giambi possess that Jermaine Dye and Gary Sheffield don't?

When Rob Neyer notes (citing Peter Hjort) that black players make more money per WAR (Wins Above Replacement) than Hispanic players, he implies that it discredits Hudson's accusation.  In those statistics I see, however, a different set of implications.

1.) African-American stars are still and will always be in demand (as all stars are), but when it comes to more middle-of-road or fringe major-league talent, teams seem tempted to go in a different direction, which explains why there were only five contracts given to African-American players during the past offseason, while 18 went to Hispanics and 33 to Caucasians.  Ever since the 1960s there has been the impression - voiced by many black players, including Curt Flood and Jackie Robinson - that the guys at the end of the bench or the back of the bullpen are predominantly white because management likes it that way.

2.) Hispanic players are not getting paid enough.  This aspect of Torii Hunter's statements was widely suppressed during the hoopla following his "imposters" interview.  Facing worse poverty and with fewer bargaining chips that American citizens, Latin American players, especially those who are very young or are fringe talents sign for, as Hunter puts it, "a bag of chips."  One of the reasons why there are people calling for an international draft and for greater regulation of the international free agent market is to fix this imbalance, which would work both to help Latino players get paid on the level with their domestic counterparts and allow more Americans who are borderline professional talents compete on an even playing field with their Dominican or Venezuelan equivalents.

We need to remember that their is nothing evil about "getting paid."  To establish, understand, and demand a wage equal to one's market value is part of being a responsible citizen in a free market economy.  African-Americans in all fields are often more sensitive to this as both responsibility and pressure because a.) they were denied access to it until relatively recently, b.) it is at the foundation of much classic civil rights rhetoric, and c.) it remains at the forefront of their cultural aesthetic (Floyd Mayweather, Barack Obama, and Jay-Z would never sign a contract for less than they're worth.  Why should Gary Sheffield?).

So, with all that in mind, here are two reasons Orlando Hudson has to be suspicious.  I won't hazard a guess as to when exactly a conspiracy of coincidences becomes a trend, but here are the facts:

Let's start with what can't help but be foremost in Hudson's mind: his own experience.  Over the previous four seasons Orlando has an 803 OPS (106 OPS+), 10.7 WAR, three Gold Gloves, and two All-Star appearances.  He is 32-years-old.  During that same exact same timespan, Placido Polanco has a 762 OPS (98 OPS+), 12.5 WAR, two Gold Gloves, and one All-Star appearance.  He is 34-years-old.

Although you may prefer one to the other, you must admit they are pretty similar players.  Yet Polanco got 3 yr./$18 Million deal (plus an option) this past offseason and has made upwards of $50 Million for his career, while Hudson has had to settle for consecutive one-year deals of $5 Million or less and has earned just about $20 Million for his career.  Setting aside whatever explanations and preferences you might have, ask yourself simply, is Placido Polanco more than twice as good as Orlando Hudson?

Let's also look past this years crop of unemployed black thirty- and forty-somethings.  This is not the first set of former All-Stars who have been unceremoniously and unwillingly ushered into retirement.  The list also includes, in just the two previous offseasons, Barry Bonds, Tony Clark, Royce Clayton, Ray Durham, Cliff Floyd, Tom Gordon, Kenny Lofton, Dave Roberts, Reggie Sanders, Shannon Stewart, Frank Thomas, Rondell White, and Preston Wilson.  I'm certainly not claiming that all of these players are/were still good enough to contribute, but that's a lot of players with a lot of history being told to hang up their spikes before they're ready.   Many of them - Bonds, Durham, Lofton, Sanders, etc. - were coming off season in which they had proven they could still be quite productive.

Hopefully, you can begin to see what Orlando might understandably construe as a pattern.  I am certainly not ready to accuse MLB of "collusion" in the case of Jermaine Dye or Gary Sheffield, nor do I think that is what O-Dog is suggesting.  However, the kneejerk urge to discredit his statements and the lack of imagination regarding how he and Hunter arrived at their conclusions reveals a racial taboo still ingrained deep within the sport.  Our national past-time has since Jackie Robinson (and even before, to be honest) provided an insightful synecdoche into the most tortured and the most definitive aspect of our nation: or racial heteronomy.  Their has been a growing inclination since the election of our first black president to believe we are entering a so-called "post-racial" America.  All O-Dog is requesting is that you look closer.

Fantastic Thoughts: "O-Dog would probably sign with your fantasy team, if you're willing to give him a three-year contract." (Second Base Preview)

I've been bemoaning it for months, but I'll be damned if it doesn't continue to infuriate me that Orlando Hudson doesn't have a job, in February, for the second year in a row.  He is, nonetheless, included on my list, along with fellow unsigned free agent, Felipe Lopez.

1. Chase Utley (Phillies)
2. Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
3. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
4. Brandon Phillips (Reds)

Not long ago, the big question at second base was, "Who don't I take if I don't get Jeff Kent?"  The pickings were slim.  But in recent years, the field has gotten progressively better, led, of course, by Chase Utley, a perennial MVP candidate who should be among the top five players off the board and will cost you close to $40 in an auction.

Some will be surprised that I rank Phillips among the elite options, but I like the consistency of his across-the-board production and, at 28, I think his best season may still be in front of him.  He's been 20/20 for three years running and with more lineup protection has a legit shot at going 30/30 (as he did in '07), to go along with at least 80 R and 90 RBI.  Phillips is the picture of health, with 550+ plate appearances in each of the last four seasons.

5. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
6. Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)
7. Ben Zobrist (Rays) [also eligible at SS and OF in many leagues]

There is a very strong argument for passing on the elite guys and jumping on the second tier this season, as each of these options has the potential to perform at the elite level.  What keeps them out of the first tier is merely consistency.  Hill and Zobrist had breakout seasons in '09, but they need to prove themselves more than "one-hit wonders."  Personally, I think both are legit, as they showed consistent progression in both power and discipline throughout the minor leagues and in their first few big-league seasons.

Cano offers a slightly different quandary.  He put up the biggest season of an already impressive career in '09 directly following his atrocious '08 campaign, so many will wonder what to trust.  I think he's about to blossom into a batting champ.  Obviously, you can't complain about his situation, hitting in the middle of a loaded lineup at a ballpark built for left-handed hitters.  Cano will continue to see lots of good pitches and have plenty of run-producing opportunities.  Also, as good as his '09 was as a whole, he was even better in the second half.  In the final three months he hit .341 with a 925 OPS.

8. Brian Roberts (Orioles)
9. Dan Uggla (Marlins)
10. Ian Stewart (Rockies) [actually plays 3B, but eligible at 2B in most leagues]
11. Jose Lopez (Mariners)

These are your "category" options in roto leagues, each of whom excels at some aspect of the game, but could hurt you in others.  Roberts hit 16 HR last season, which was the second-highest total of his career, and drove in 79 runs, which was a career high.  I don't expect him to reach or exceed those totals in 2010.  However, he will once again be among the league leaders in runs scored, with excellent stolen base totals and a decent average.

The other three are inversions of Roberts.  Each has unusual power for the positions, but they are "all or nothing" kinds of hitters, who don't reach base often and don't offer much speed when they do.  Lopez will hit for a slightly higher average than Uggla or Stewart, but '09 was his first 25 HR season, where Uggla has hit 30+ for three years running.  Stewart is the high-risk/high-reward option here.  He's only 25-years-old and spent much of '09 as a platoon player, so there's plenty of room for improvement, but there's also room for a sophomore slump, as he's a free swinger with plenty of holes (see Chris Davis).  The Rockies just added Melvin Mora to their bench, suggesting that Stewart may only be one bad month from finding himself back in a platoon, and two bad months from Colorado Springs.

12. Howie Kendrick (Angels)
13. Gordon Beckham (White Sox) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
14. Rickie Weeks (Brewers)
15. Martin Prado (Braves) [also eligible at 3B and 1B in many leagues]
16. Casey McGehee (Brewers) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]

This tier is all about "upside."  Unless you're in a very deep league, you'd prefer that none of these guys be your first-string middle infielder, but at a utility spot, or otherwise provide depth, they offer tons of potential.  One of the great tragedies of '09 was Rickie Weeks wrist injury.  In the seasons opening weeks he looked like he was headed for the monster season that his owners have been expecting for years.  Hopefully, that breakout is just on a ten month delay.  Be cautious though.  It can take a player more than a full season to re-strengthen he wrist after a major injury (see Derrek Lee and David Ortiz), so Weeks power, the quality which makes him so tempting, may not return until 2011.

McGehee replaced Weeks in Milwaukee and his performance (.301, 16 HR, 66 RBI) helped keep the Brewers in contention much longer than if they'd turned second base over to Craig Counsell.  As such, McGehee earned a starting position going into 2010, at third base.  I doubt, however, that he will be able to keep it.  McGehee's '09 numbers look extraordinarily flukish.  He never had an average above .300 or an OPS above 800 in the minors.  Maybe he "discovered" his stroke upon being promoted, but I'd bet that he's just as likely to "lose" it again.  The Brewers top hitting prospect, Mat Gamel, will be nipping at his heels, so he probably doesn't have much leash.  By midseason, McGehee will be a utilityman.

17. Placido Polanco (Phillies) [will be eligible at 3B early in the season]
18. Orlando Hudson (Nationals?)

A couple of oldies, but goodies.  If you need a stable presence, I would actually recommend taking O-Dog or Polly ahead of some of the guys in the previous tier, because though unspectacular, each is dependable.  Oddly, I might even argue that Polance has a little upside, at the age of 34, because he'll be hitting somewhere in the middle of the loaded Phillies lineup (I'm guessing either second or seventh).  I think he's a safe bet for .300-80-10-80-5, which isn't exactly mouth-watering, but is solid production from a guy who you can get as your third or fourth infielder.

My passion for Hudson is well-documented, but I'll simply remind everybody that he was damn good in the first half of '09 (All-Star worthy, in fact) and not nearly as bad as people think in the second half.  Recent rumors have him headed to D.C., which would be a good fit for his fantasy owners, as he'd be a lock for everyday at-bats and would probably hit near the top of the order, right in front of Z-Pack and Big Donkey (Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn).

Look out for falling prices...

When I previewed free agency in mid-November there were 83 featured players.  As of this morning, 48 of them had either signed, accepted arbitration, or retired, including all of the players who I expected to dictate the market: Holliday, Bay, Lackey, Chapman, Figgins, and Valverde.  At this point, with the beginning of Spring Training only a month away, those who remained unsigned are starting to get anxious.  Many teams have already declared themselves "spent" this offseason.  So, with demand shrinking, we are also looking at an inevitable drop in prices, particularly at those positions which still feature a fair supply of options.  During the waning months of the last offseason, several players signed cheap, short contracts and proceeded to produce well above their pay grade, including Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, and Orlando Hudson.  If you believe, as Eric Karabell says, that "there is no such thing as a risky one-year deal," than this is a great time for general managers to play with the house's money.

Orlando Hudson & Orlando Cabrera

This is the second time the Orlandos have found themselves in this unsavory position in the last twelve months.  Last winter both players signed one-year deals for under $4 Million.  Frankly, I don't understand it.  Both players are Gold Glove-winning middle infielders who are solid, sometimes superlative, offensive catalysts, and are also widely recognized as good teammates and energizing clubhouse presences.

Hudson is suffering in part because of his mysterious benching by Joe Torre late in last season.  Torre elected to turn to Ron Belliard (who's also still available) more and more in September and October, even though Hudson was an '09 All-Star and really only had one poor month (June).  In fact, his OPS+ (109) was the highest of his career.  Nevertheless, though O-Dog very well may have had legitimate beef with Torre's decision, he never voiced any displeasure and he embraced his newfound role, even coming up with a pinch-hit homer in Game 5 of the NLCS.

Cabrera's season had a slightly different arch, as he slumped with Oakland through the first four months of the season, but when he came to the Twins, he immediately became a favored member of the club, lauded by fans and management, who inspired his teammates and came up with several big hits (none bigger than the homer he hit in Game 163 against Detroit).

To me, these seem like players who you want on your club, but for the second year in a row the bulk of general managers have disagreed.

Potential Suitors (for Hudson): Cubs, Twins, Tigers, Nationals
Potential Suitors (for Cabrera): Astros, Reds, Twins

Miguel Tejada

The former AL MVP has the opposite problem from Hudson and Cabrera, whose perceived weaknesses are clearly as hitters.  Tejada proved in '09 that he is still a force to be reckoned with at the plate, by leading the NL in doubles and batting .313.  Even though he's a free swinger (only 19 BB in '09), there are very few teams that would welcome his addition to their lineup.  The problem is that many believe that Tejada's defensive skills have eroded to the point that he is no longer a satisfactory option at the game's premier defensive position, shortstop.  As such, Tejada's marketability in the coming months depends largely on his willingness to make a switch, probably to third base or designated hitter.  If he can swallow his pride and commit to such a conversion, just as Michael Young did prior to last season, he will see a dramatic increase in suitors and a corresponding increase in salary.

Potential Suitors: White Sox, Angels, Twins, Athletics

Erik Bedard & Ben Sheets

One of the new business of baseball catchphrases is "reestablish his market."  It refers to players who need to take a short-term contract, not only because current demand necessitates it, but because it will be better for them in the long run.  Assuming they prove their health and effectiveness, Bedard and Sheets could be in line for much, much larger paydays a year from now.  Both have the potential to be frontline starters.  Sheets is a four-time All-Star (he started the game for the NL as recently as 2008) who is still in his early thirties.  Bedard is also just 31-years-old and looked on his way to becoming an Ace before injuries limited him to only thirty starts in two seasons with Seattle.  Even so, in those thirty starts, Bedard went 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 162 K in 164 IP, which gives you a sense of what he might've been capable of if he was fully healthy.

This is where Karabell's maxim really comes under fire.  If your teams signs one of these pitchers, you expect them to produce, at the very least, like a #2 (just ask those Cubs fans who assumed Rich Harden would be a Cy Young contender in '09 after he looked so dominant during the second half of '08).  Unfortunately, the odds are that at least one of these guys not only will fail to fulfill that expectation, but will probably miss most of the season, potentially crushing a whole city's dreams in the process.

Potential Suitors: Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Brewers

2009 Hi-Lo (Part One)

Having now completed 3 mock auctions, 4 actual auctions, and 3 drafts, I feel like I'm getting a sense of which players are being especially favored by owners this year and which are flying under the radar. Here are my overrated and underrated teams going into 2009.

Catcher:

+ Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez, Yadier Molina, Jeff Clement
- Matt Wieters, Geo Soto

It is safe to say the Russell Martin and Brian McCann should be the first backstops off the board and for the most part that seems to be happening. What's surprising is that V-Mart, once considered by far the best option at his position, has fallen considerably in many rankings, behind the likes of Martin, McCann, Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, and Ryan Doumit after an injury-plagued 2008 campaign. Martinez averaged 21 HR and 97 RBI in the four preceding season and I see no reason why he won't return to form, especially since he'll be seeing more time at 1B and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach. In September Martinez hit .288 with 14 RBI, even after a prolonged absence. Take him with confidence for $8-10 or in the middle rounds. Meanwhile, Geo Soto will cost as much as $15 or a pick in the first five rounds and is unlikely to perform any better than V-Mart. I like Soto, but following up on his Rookie of the Year campaign is going to be difficult. I wouldn't consider him an elite option until he proves he can do it two years in a row.

Matt Wieters is going to be a monster. Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer, but unless you're in a keeper league or you can get him for under $5 or in the late rounds, he's not worth the investment just yet. The Orioles will delay his arrival in order to keep him off the arbitration clock. Remember Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun, both of whom were held off until late May or early June for similar reasons, only got tickets to the show as early as they did because their clubs had made themselves contenders. Unless the Orioles are surprising everybody this spring (not likely), I don't see Wieters getting at-bats before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Jeff Clement will work his way into the lineup at C, 1B, or DH nearly everyday from the start of the year. He's just 25 and had a 1131 OPS at AAA in 2008.

Ramon Hernandez is a good power option (15 HR in '08) who's moving to the Great American Smallpark in Cincinnati. He's a solid late-round sleeper. Yadier Molina quietly hit above .300 last year. He's also just 25, but already has four seasons as a big-league regular. His offensive production has improved every year. These are the type of guys who come cheap and contribute at a couple of categories, which is much to be thankful for at a thin position.

First Base:

+ Justin Morneau
- Mark Texeira, Chris Davis

There aren't a lot of steals at this position. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are potentially to two most valuable players on the board and everybody knows it. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Lance Berkman aren't far behind. If any one of these fellows falls to the third round or goes for less than $25, you've gotten a heck of a deal. The same should be said of Justin Morneau, yet in two separate auctions I got him for $24. That seems strange for a guy who's a perennial MVP candidate. He's only 27 and he already has three years of at least 23 HR and 111 RBI. He may not have the upside of Howard or Fielder, but a season of .300 - 100 - 30 - 125 is a fairly safe bet.

Texeira is also a quality option, but I'm seeing him going early in the first-round and for upwards of $35 in the wake of his signing with New York. Maybe that will prove a reasonable estimation of his value, but you can have Pujols, Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, or Jose Reyes for around the same price. You be the judge.

Maybe I just arrived late on the Chris Davis bandwagon (unusual for me) and I understand that the 2008 numbers are pretty stratospheric (.305 -119-40-130-11 combined at AA/AAA/MLB), but I caution you to remember the likes of Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young. Chris Davis hasn't proven his pitch selection capability quite yet and until he does, I not willing to rank him ahead of Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, and James Loney (which is where Davis is getting drafted). Caution is warranted here.

Second Base:

+ Brandon Phillips, Orlando Hudson
- Mark DeRosa

I let others pay $30 for Dustin Pedroia (coming off career year), Chase Utley (coming off injury), and Ian Kinsler (coming off injury in a career year), I'll happily grab Brandon Phillips for around $20. He will put up quality stats in at least four categories and has the five-tool talent outperform the lot of him (see also, Alexei Ramirez, who has now moved to shortstop).

Based on my experience, Orlando Hudson is still going to be on the board in Round 25. You could do much worse with that pick, especially if you can slot him in as your third middle infielder. Between injuries the last two seasons Hudson has hit .300+ with an 800+ OPS, and that was on a team that expected him to bat in the three hole. Now he's likely to slot in between Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. As long as he's in the lineup he'll be a cheap producer in all five categories.

Mark DeRosa is coming off three consecutive seasons of improving production, capped off by a .285-103-21-87-6 year with the Cubs in '08 (kudos, Jim Hendry). Now he's 34 and heading back to the AL, to a team (Cleveland) which has a lot of young talent waiting in the wings. Don't be surprised if DeRosa loses his starting job and ends up as a veteran utility-man who only gets around 400 AB. We'll miss him in Chicago, but I'm quite skeptical.

Third Base:

+ Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman
- Evan Longoria

Maybe Longoria will equal or improve upon his rookie campaign, as Ryan Braun did last year, but I worry about the high ticket price. He's been going considerably ahead of guys like Aramis Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis, both of whom seem like safer options to me. His K/BB ratio (almost 3/1) worries me, especially since in was worst at the end of last year (20/3 in September, 20/5 in October). He still has to prove that he's capable of adjusting to the league and could be prone to some extended slumps which you are not likely to get from Ramirez or Youkilis.

Atkins is the prototype of the underrated player. He consistently lasts until the middle to late rounds, despite averaging .300-93-25-110 the last three seasons. He'll no longer benefit from the presence of Matt Holliday, but he still represents a top-quality choice at a surprisingly think position (especially now that A-Rod is questionable).

Nobody wants to touch Nationals hitters after they were among the worst in baseball last season, with no player exceeding 14 HR or 61 RBI. However, Zimmerman was limited to only 106 games in 2008 and stands to benefit the most from the addition of Adam Dunn, who will likely hit cleanup right behind him. Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Christian Guzman should be capable table-setters and, most importantly, Zimmerman will be only 24 in his fourth big-league season. He seems to be consistently available late in the draft or auction. Few players at that point have this much upside.

Shortstop:

+ Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitzki
- Derek Jeter

Remember, "intangibles" are not a fantasy category, so the fact the Jeter is going directly behind Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins is probably the most laughable aspect of this years draft. Jeter is still a solid middle-of-the-road shortstop, capable of providing you with .300-90-10-70-10, but similar guys are available late in the draft (i.e. Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta). If you're going to pay a premium price, take a gamble on Furcal, Tulowitzki, Alexei Ramirez, or Stephen Drew, all of whom could be competing with the trio of elite shortstops in years to come. Furcal will probably be the cheapest of the group (because he is the oldest and coming off an injury-plagued season). His combination of speed, plate discipline, and a threatening lineup behind him could allow him to challenge for a batting title and he has shown consistently improving power as his career has progressed. Two years of battling injuries may lead us to forget he is still in his prime.