The Best Pitcher's Duel You've Ever Seen?

It is quite possible that, from a purely aesthetic perspective, the Saturday night showdown between Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum in the opening game of the NLCS will be the apex of the 2010 season.  Certainly, the postseason drama, as always, will continue to escalate as the series moves forward.  And, regardless of the outcome of Game 1, both teams will still be very much alive.  However, you are unlikely to see a high-stakes matchup of better pitchers, in this, or any, postseason.  It's hard to imagine a better showcase for the craft of pitching.

For starters, it is not unreasonable to call Halladay and Lincecum the two best pitchers in baseball at this particular moment.  Perhaps, I take this too much for granted, as a longtime initiate to the "Cult of Halladay," but Doc was ubiquitously called "the best pitcher in baseball" throughout last offseason and since then all he's done is pitch a perfect game, a playoff no-hitter, lead the NL in wins and innings (among other things), and (probably) win his second Cy Young.

The argument for Lincecum is less clear, as Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and C. C. Sabathia all have reasonably good cases for being called #2, but Lincecum's argument is as strong as anybody's and perhaps he gains a small advantage because a.) he's younger than all but Hernandez and b.) he's yet to show any real sign of weakness, having won Cy Youngs in each of his first two full seasons and likely finishing very high in the voting again this year.

Over the last three seasons, this is how Halladay and Lincecum rank in a number of key pitching categories (among starting pitchers with at least 300 innings during that span).

Wins: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
ERA: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
WHIP: Halladay #1, Lincecum #10
Strikeouts: Lincecum #1, Halladay #5
Innings: Halladay #1, Lincecum #7
ERA+: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
QS%: Lincecum #2, Halladay #4
Shutouts: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Complete Games: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
K/9: Lincecum #1, Halladay #34
BB/9: Halladay #1, Lincecum #67
HR/9: Lincecum #3, Halladay #26
K/BB: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
OPS Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #7
OPS+ Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #4
Wins Above Replacement: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Average Game Score: Halladay & Lincecum tied for #1

Whether you favor the Freak over Lee, King Felix, and the Big Sleep is really inconsequential.  Pitchers of this caliber just don't get together very often.  In the entirety of the 2010 season, there was only one occasion when two of the five pitchers mentioned above took the mound against one another.  Sabathia and Halladay squared off in an interleague game in June (Sabathia got the victory, in case you were wondering).

One might expect it to happen more frequently in the playoffs, as teams are more likely to have time to set their rotations and there is a greater preponderance of Aces.  However, that isn't necessarily the case.  For one thing, the preeminent pitchers in the league aren't always around to participate.  We're all aware of Halladay's long suffering.  This is Lincecum's first trip to the playoffs as well.  Cliff Lee didn't make it until last season and Hernandez still hasn't been.  Cy Young and Walter Johnson each got only two shots at championships.  Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, and Warren Spahn just three.  Roger Clemens didn't start making annual appearances in October until his mid-thirties, by which point, though still great, he wasn't really at the height of his powers.  In recent memory there are only a few duels which rival the one we're anticipating on Saturday.

In the 1998 NLCS, Kevin Brown got the call against Tom Glavine in Game 2.  Glavine and Brown would finish 1st and 3rd, respectively, in the NL Cy Young voting that year (with reliever Trevor Hoffman separating them) and both were dead in the center of their primes (it's easy to forget how good Kevin Brown was from '96 to '00).  The title "best pitcher in baseball," however, was still a toss up between Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, so it isn't quite the same.  It was a great game though.  Brown tossed a shutout and struck out 11 Braves.  Glavine gave up only one run in six innings, but took the loss.

Sadly, Maddux and Martinez never faced each other in the postseason.  Maddux did, however, get a shot at Randy Johnson in Game 1 of the 2001 NLCS.  Johnson had just earned the third of his four straight NL Cy Youngs and was getting the ball rolling on what would be a notoriously great run of postseason starts.  Though Maddux was probably not the same pitcher he was when he won four consecutive Cys, his powers were not dramatically diminished and it would be another four years before he won less than 15 games in a season.  This was another game that lived up to its billing.  Johnson delivered a three-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts, while Maddux went seven strong and lost 2-0.

Probably the most famous showdown of this variety came in 1963, when on two occasions Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford, both of whom had led their respective leagues in victories that season, shared the mound for games one and four of the World Series.  In the opener, Koufax's infamous 15-K outing, the Dodgers roughed up Ford early and he only lasted five innings.  But the finale (it was a Dodgers sweep) saw both pitchers allow just a single earned run.  Ford allowed only two hits in seven innings, but a crucial error by Joe Pepitone (who let a throw get away from him on a routine groundout) set up a sacrifice fly, which was all Koufax needed to polish off the '63 Yankees for good.  

(Yes, I am implicitly comparing Roy Halladay to Sandy Koufax.  No, I don't think it's an exaggeration.)

As was the case for Maddux v. Johnson and, to a lesser extent, for Koufax v. Ford, what makes Lincecum v. Halladay even more exciting is the fact that these two pitchers, though both at the pinnacle of their profession, have dramatically different personalities and pitching styles.  Halladay is, of course, famously unflappable.  Ever calm and workmanlike, Doc's dedication to routine sometimes makes him seem robotic.  In interviews following the no-hitter he threw last week, in his first postseason start, he still spoke in an unwavering monotone.  After the final out was recorded, his feet never left the ground, there wasn't so much as a fist pump (the kind of thing which we see from many pitchers at the end of a routine inning).  He stood and smiled while Carlos Ruiz and his teammates celebrated his accomplishment giddily, looking all the while a little claustrophobic and uncertain whether it really warranted all the fuss.

Lincecum, on the other hand, is unabashedly emotive.  He can't restrain himself from cursing on live television.  In the last week he's looked like a kid in the midst of a prolonged sugar rush and the adrenaline even effected his ability to locate his pitches in the first inning of his NLDS start (he got over it quickly, obviously).

As a closer reading of the stats listed above reveals, though both are extremely effective, they go about their business in very different ways.  Lincecum is the epitome of the power pitcher.  Although he can occasionally finish a game, as he did during the NLDS, he relies heavily on the strikeout and is thus prone to higher pitchcounts and occasional wildness.  Halladay is certainly no slouch when it comes to getting a necessary strikeout, but he relies much more heavily on the defense behind him, almost never allows free passes, and takes great pride in finishing games.  As a result, of course, he gives up more hits and more homers.  Hitters come to the plate knowing he is going to have to throw strikes, so they are prepared to hack.  For Halladay, who has extraordinary movement on all his pitches, this often works to his advantage.

Adding even a little more excitement is the fact that Halladay and Lincecum are both streaking right now.  Obviously, the are both coming off outings which were among the best in playoff history.  You've probably heard all about it.  But, it goes back even further than that.  Halladay threw a two-hit shutout in his previous outing, to clinch the Phillies division title.  He has won each of his last six starts, and from July on is 13-3 with a 2.34 ERA.  Lincecum suffered probably the worst month of his young career in August, but rebounded in a major way in September.  In his last seven starts he is 6-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 66 K in 51 innings.  Clearly, neither is in the mood to lose.

There is, of course, always the possibility that one or both of these dominant Aces won't respond well to the prolonged rest, the hype, or, for whatever reason, won't have their best stuff.  We could end up seeing a 10-8 slugfest on Saturday...but I doubt it.  This is an extraordinarily rare opportunity to see two superlative players, at the height of their abilities, pitching against each other on the biggest stage.

Or you could watch college football.  Jackasses.

The Stream (Week Nine)

[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]

MON: Joe Blanton (PHI) @ San Diego Padres (Kevin Correia)

Blanton is coming of his finest outing of the season, an eleven strikeout, seven shutout inning performance at home against the Marlins. He'll get another struggling, strikeout-prone offense, this time on the road, but in a ballpark that minimizes Blanton's most glaring weakness, his propensity for giving up the long ball.

TUE: Manny Parra (MIL) @ Florida Marlins (Burke Badenhop)

I'm tempted to recommend Randy Wolf again, since he hasn't failed me yet, but he's facing off with Dan Haren, so his likelihood of earning a W decreases significantly, even if he pitches well. Much the same may be said for Zack Duke, who's facing Johan Santana. Which leads me to Manny Parra. His overall numbers (3-6, 5.57 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 46 K, 53 IP) are skewed by a particularly bad outing (3 IP, 8 ER) against an extraordinarily hot Minnesota lineup. Discounting that start, his May numbers are quite solid (3-1, 3.23 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30 K, 31 IP). That includes a solid 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 K win over the Marlins on May 12. Milwaukee's offense gives Parra a chance to win, even it he's not perfect.

WED: Randy Johnson (SFG) @ Washington Nationals (Jordan Zimmerman)

There is the added sentimental bonus of perhaps having the Big Unit on your roster for his 300th victory, but Johnson has pitched legitimately well in his last two outings, striking out twelve in twelve innings of work and allowing only two runs. The Nationals are, believe it or not, the third most productive offense in the NL right now (trailing on Los Angeles and Philadelphia). However, their pitching staff still gives up more than the lineup produces and their team OPS is 30 points lower at home. (Special Note: Adam Dunn v. Big Unit, 1-for-12 with 0 XBH)

THU: Gil Meche (KCR) @ Tampa Bay Rays (James Shields)

Not a lot to choose from on Thursday, but if you need somebody, you might take a gamble on Meche. Tampa has a potent offense, but last year Meche managed a 1.46 ERA in two starts against primarily the same players. Shields has been struggling, so he may have a chance to win even if he can't maintain that pace.

FRI: Doug Davis (ARI) @ San Diego Padres (Josh Geer)

I wouldn't fault you for going with Paul Maholm (@ Houston), Nick Blackburn (@ Seattle), or Barry Zito (@ Florida). But, you should beware of Maholm's history at Minute Maid. Blackburn gets a tough matchup against King Felix. And Zito, though he continues to pitch well, has been the victim of terrible run support. Davis has also. He has quietly pitched well (3.65 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 51 K, 69 IP). Like Blanton, his main weakness is the home run, so PETCO Park suits him well. He is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA there in his career.

SAT: Anthony Swarzak (MIN) @ Seattle Mariners (Garrett Olson)

Swarzak may be the newest addition to the long line of middle-tier pitching prospect turned quality starters by the Twins organization. He's only 23, but went 8-4 with a 2.03 ERA in 90 IP at AAA. He's not overpowering (only 58 K at AAA), but he's looked solid in his first two major league outings (13 IP, 3 ER) and he gets a mediocre offense at a pitcher's park against an opponent, Garrett Olson, who's pretty much proven he has no business pitching in the majors (6.53 ERA in 185 IP). Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer are all red hot. It's a good time to be pitching for the Twins.

SUN: Zack Duke (PIT) @ Houston Astros (Felipe Paulino)

Duke has been downright golden so far this season (5-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 42 K, 72 IP). The only reason he isn't owned across the board is that his team stinks. Thankfully so do the Astros, including their rookie pitcher, Felipe Paulino (1-4, 6.75 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 26 K, 36 IP). This makes Duke slightly more favorable than Randy Wolf (v. Phillies), Rich Hill (@ Athletics), and Manny Parra (@ Braves).

Swimming Upstream [How did I do last week?]

MON: Brett Anderson (W, 6 IP, 1.50/1.33, 4 K)
TUE: Kevin Correia (L, 5 2/3 IP, 9.53/1.76, 5 K)
WED: Kensin Kawakami (L, 5 2/3 IP, 4.76/2.29, 2 K)
THU: Randy Wolf (W, 7 IP, 1.29/1.00, 7 K)
FRI: Dontrelle Willis (L, 5 IP, 12.60/2.40, 1 K)
SAT: Barry Zito (L, 6 2/3 IP, 4.02/1.80, 6 K)
SUN: Jorge De La Rosa (L, 5 IP, 7.20/1.80, 5 K)

Week 8 Totals: 2-5, 39 IP, 5.77 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 30 K

Season Totals: 8-8, 120 IP, 4.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 96 K

Not a lot to hang my hat on from last week, except perhaps Brett Anderson's unheralded performance on Monday. Hopefully many of you, like me, didn't have to take chance on D-Train and De La Rosa over the weekend. This is a good time to point out that, despite an atrocious record, Baltimore sports a pretty potent offense and should probably be avoided against spot starters. I had hoped that Dontrelle would follow up on a couple of stellar outing. It was not to be.

300

While Tom Glavine chased down his magical 300th victory, we were subjected to a lot of commentary regarding the growing difficulty of achieving the milestone most associated with Hall of Fame pitchers. As the 500 HR club grows at a dramatically faster pace, it has been widely publicized that the 300 W plateau is becoming more and more difficult to achieve. The five-man rotation, smaller ballparks, the slider, steroids, etc. All are indicted as creating an atmosphere for pitchers which has allowed only three 300 game winners in the last sixteen years. In other words, as many as will likely join the 500 HR club this season.

The fact is, however, the 300 W club has always been this exclusive. Only three times in baseball history have there been three new members of the 300 W club in the span of five seasons. From 2003-2007 we have seen the addition of Glavine, Maddux, and Clemens. From 1982-1986, five pitchers - Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Phil Niekro, and Don Sutton - reached the mark. And the first five ballplayers to win 300 did so between 1888-1892: Pud Galvin, Tim Keefe, Mickey Welch, Charley Radbourn, and John Clarkson. So, you could say, there has been a glut of 300 game winners in recent seasons. Many of our contemporary commentators were probably spoiled by the richness of legendary pitchers in the '80s, which may be why it seems to them that winning 300 is getting harder. But, prior to 1982 there had been an even longer drought. Eighteen seasons came and went between Early Wynn's 300th win and Perry's. When Wynn won his 300th, Perry was still a relief pitcher with four career wins. And that isn't even the longest stretch without new members. Nineteen full seasons expired between 1941, when Lefty Grove won his 300th, and 1961, when Warren Spahn did. There has been speculation that we could be in for another, perhaps longer, drought, now that Glavine has reached the plateau. But I doubt it. Perhaps, due to his chronic back problems, Randy Johnson really will call it quits only 16 wins shy of 300. But I doubt it. The Big Unit proved this season that even in pain he could still be pretty dominant. He made seven quality starts in ten attempts for the Diamondbacks. Next season he is likely to start receiving the Roger Clemens treatment, thus giving him extra time to rest his back. And, he'll be pitching on a young team that is proving during the second half of this season that they can win a lot of games. Perhaps Mike Mussina, at age 38, cannot expect to win 50 more games. But I doubt it. He hasn't thrown less than 165 innings or won less than twelve games since his rookie season in 1991. He is a physically fit, control pitcher playing for a perennial contender. He is likely to follow in the footsteps of Glavine, Maddux, and Clemens, pitching well into his forties. Perhaps Pedro Martinez' surgery will leave him a shadow of his former self and prevent him from chasing the best winning percentage of any pitcher from the modern era (Spud Chandler - 71.7%; Pedro - 69.1%). But I doubt it. Pedro is only 35, but still needs 94 wins to reach 300. That's something of a long shot, I'll admit. But if Pedro does maintain the pace of his injury-free seasons, he'll only need five and a half more years.

Those are the only three who have already recorded upward of 200 victories who have a legitimate chance. Here are five more active pitchers who with another decade or so, have at least an outside chance of winning 300: Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay, C. C. Sabathia, Mark Buehrle, and Johan Santana. Three factors figure heavily in these choices. Longevity: this includes both a track record of avoiding injury and a body-type likely to age gracefully (i.e. not David Wells or Bartolo Colon). Since Christy Mathewson (1912), only Maddux and Carlton have reached 300 prior to the age of 40. Stamina: the ability to consistently work deep into ballgames, the longer a pitcher stays around the more likely he is to get the W. The three most recent additions to the club averaged 6.77 inning per start over the entirety of their careers. Control: While there are some great strikeout artists in the club, the vast majority of the members pitched to contact and avoided the base on balls. Only Clemens (#14) and Ryan (#4) have 300 wins and also rank among the top 70 all-time in K/9 IP. Only four members (Wynn, Carlton, Glavine, and Niekro) averaged more than 3.00 BB/9 IP.