BBA Ballot: Walter Johnson Award

It was "The Year of the Pitcher" after all, so it should come as no surprise that this was easily the most difficult ballot to construct.  Not so much at the top, since each league featured a pitcher who was at least a notch or two above the rest of the competition, but the rest of the ballot was a real struggle.  In both leagues, there were at least a dozen players who I thought well worthy of consideration, but eventually, this is what I came up with.

American League:

Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander (Tigers), Francisco Liriano (Twins), Jon Lester (Red Sox), Trevor Cahill (Athletics), C. J. Wilson (Rangers), Gio Gonzalez (Athletics), Zach Greinke (Royals), Colby Lewis (Rangers)

5. Jered Weaver (Angels)

For the first time since his career began, the Angels were not a serious contender, so Weaver's breakout season, which we've been anticipating for at least two or three years, managed to fly under the radar.  He led the league in strikeouts (233), while also managing a career low walk rate.  He piled on the innings (224) and posted an ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.07) which in many years would make him the cream of the crop.  Not so in "The Year of the Pitcher."

4. David Price (Rays)

By going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six September starts, Price nearly pitched his way to the top of the ballot.  And, although he struggled against the mighty Rangers (and, really, who hasn't) in the ALDS, Price showed confidently in 2010 that all the hype surrounding the #1 pick in the '07 draft was completely justified.  The 25-year-old southpaw will probably be back on this ballot several times in the coming seasons, particularly if he manages another sparkling ERA (2.72) like this one.  What held Price back (slightly) this season was a clear limitation on his innings (he was almost 42 innings off the league lead) and moderate struggles with control (3.4 BB/9).  Nevertheless, he won 19 games for the league's best team (at least in terms of record).

3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)

Yes, he's a Yankee, so his teddy-bear personality doesn't play as well with the rest of the nation as it did when he was carrying underdogs like the Indians and the Brewers.  Yes, King Felix was clearly the better pitcher this season, and likely would have won more than 21 games if he'd had the luxury of pitching in front of the C.C.'s teammates.  However, there's been a lot of over-the-top player-hating on The Big Sleep, who, besides leading the league in wins, was #2 in innings (238), #6 in strikeouts (197), #7 in ERA (3.18), and #8 in WAR (5.1).  He absolutely owned Yankee Stadium (11-2, 3.00), which C. J. Wilson discovered this past week, isn't necessarily friendly to southpaws.  At 40-15 after two years, C. C. Sabathia is putting himself in the position to be the first pitcher to ever be undervalued with a $100+ Million contract.

2. Cliff Lee (Rangers/Mariners)

This vote actually has nothing to do with his historic postseason run.  Cliff Lee was, during the 2010 regular season, according to FanGraphs, the most valuable pitcher in all of baseball, posting a 7.0 WAR, which is 0.4 better than even Roy Halladay.  I'm not sure I would take Lee's season ahead of Halladay's, or for that matter King Felix's, but what WAR does make clear is that Lee's production goes well beyond his 12-9 record.  For starters, his ridiculous 10.28 K/BB ratio is the second best in the history of the sport for a pitcher who threw at least 150 innings (Bret Saberhagen, '94 is the trivia question answer, in case you were wondering).  Moreover, with seven complete games and 17 starts where he went at least eight innings, Lee averaged over 7 2/3 innings per start, better even than Halladay.  Basically, even though his win totals were underwhelming, Lee enters free agency with a very legitimate argument that he is "the best pitcher in baseball."

1. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)

You're probably sick of the explanations, as King Felix has been a posterchild for sabermetrics since the end of August.  Yes, if Felix wins a Cy Young, he would have easily the lowest win total and the worst winning percentage of any starting pitcher in the history of the award.  But, of course, his team boasted one of the worst offenses in the history of the game.  He led the AL in innings (250) by a significant margin, and also paced the league in ERA (2.27), QS% (0.88), Opponents Average (.212), and Opponents OPS (585), while finishing one strikeout behind Weaver.  It's very hard to imagine what more King Felix could've done.

National League:

Honorable Mention: Roy Oswalt (Phillies/Astros), Josh Johnson (Marlins), Brett Myers (Astros), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers), Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Mat Latos (Padres), Matt Cain (Giants)

5. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)

Carp has been so good for so long that he frequently gets overlooked, especially now that he has a teammate putting up equally gaudy numbers, but at age 35, he's still as dominant as ever, and showed it during his 35 starts in 2010, going 16-9 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

4. Tim Lincecum (Giants)

We were spoiled by the Freak in his first two full seasons, to such an extent that his 3.43 ERA this season seems like a major backslide.  However, it is unduly influenced by his first slump, which lasted much of August.  That month aside, Lincecum still managed to be one of the best pitchers in his league, again pacing the senior circuit in strikeouts and finishing fifth in the league in WAR (5.1).  Moreover, his 5-1 record in September (with a 1.94 ERA) powered the Giants into the playoffs, for which he gains a little boost on my ballot.

3. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)

This was probably the hardest decision on either side of ballot.  The performances of Wainwright and Jimenez were eerily similar:

Jimenez: 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP
Wainwright: 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 213 K, 230 IP

Wainwright clearly has slight edges in most of the basic stat categories, but I chose to give in to the popular refrain coming out of Colorado in the second half: "If you punish CarGo for hitting at Coors, you've got to reward Ubaldo for pitching there."  I think there's a great deal of truth in this and for that reason (as well as my general affinity for watching Ubaldo pitch) I gave the edge to the Rockies Ace.

1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)

Most of you are probably sick of reading my lavish praise for Doc.  If you aren't, you can certainly check out the nineteen previous posts I've made in which he's featured prominently.  For the time being, I will simple point out again that the expectations were obscenely high when he was acquired by the Phillies this offseason and he lived up to them.  No easy feat.

The Best Pitcher's Duel You've Ever Seen?

It is quite possible that, from a purely aesthetic perspective, the Saturday night showdown between Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum in the opening game of the NLCS will be the apex of the 2010 season.  Certainly, the postseason drama, as always, will continue to escalate as the series moves forward.  And, regardless of the outcome of Game 1, both teams will still be very much alive.  However, you are unlikely to see a high-stakes matchup of better pitchers, in this, or any, postseason.  It's hard to imagine a better showcase for the craft of pitching.

For starters, it is not unreasonable to call Halladay and Lincecum the two best pitchers in baseball at this particular moment.  Perhaps, I take this too much for granted, as a longtime initiate to the "Cult of Halladay," but Doc was ubiquitously called "the best pitcher in baseball" throughout last offseason and since then all he's done is pitch a perfect game, a playoff no-hitter, lead the NL in wins and innings (among other things), and (probably) win his second Cy Young.

The argument for Lincecum is less clear, as Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and C. C. Sabathia all have reasonably good cases for being called #2, but Lincecum's argument is as strong as anybody's and perhaps he gains a small advantage because a.) he's younger than all but Hernandez and b.) he's yet to show any real sign of weakness, having won Cy Youngs in each of his first two full seasons and likely finishing very high in the voting again this year.

Over the last three seasons, this is how Halladay and Lincecum rank in a number of key pitching categories (among starting pitchers with at least 300 innings during that span).

Wins: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
ERA: Halladay #1, Lincecum #5
WHIP: Halladay #1, Lincecum #10
Strikeouts: Lincecum #1, Halladay #5
Innings: Halladay #1, Lincecum #7
ERA+: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
QS%: Lincecum #2, Halladay #4
Shutouts: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Complete Games: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
K/9: Lincecum #1, Halladay #34
BB/9: Halladay #1, Lincecum #67
HR/9: Lincecum #3, Halladay #26
K/BB: Halladay #1, Lincecum #14
OPS Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #7
OPS+ Against: Lincecum #1, Halladay #4
Wins Above Replacement: Halladay #1, Lincecum #3
Average Game Score: Halladay & Lincecum tied for #1

Whether you favor the Freak over Lee, King Felix, and the Big Sleep is really inconsequential.  Pitchers of this caliber just don't get together very often.  In the entirety of the 2010 season, there was only one occasion when two of the five pitchers mentioned above took the mound against one another.  Sabathia and Halladay squared off in an interleague game in June (Sabathia got the victory, in case you were wondering).

One might expect it to happen more frequently in the playoffs, as teams are more likely to have time to set their rotations and there is a greater preponderance of Aces.  However, that isn't necessarily the case.  For one thing, the preeminent pitchers in the league aren't always around to participate.  We're all aware of Halladay's long suffering.  This is Lincecum's first trip to the playoffs as well.  Cliff Lee didn't make it until last season and Hernandez still hasn't been.  Cy Young and Walter Johnson each got only two shots at championships.  Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, and Warren Spahn just three.  Roger Clemens didn't start making annual appearances in October until his mid-thirties, by which point, though still great, he wasn't really at the height of his powers.  In recent memory there are only a few duels which rival the one we're anticipating on Saturday.

In the 1998 NLCS, Kevin Brown got the call against Tom Glavine in Game 2.  Glavine and Brown would finish 1st and 3rd, respectively, in the NL Cy Young voting that year (with reliever Trevor Hoffman separating them) and both were dead in the center of their primes (it's easy to forget how good Kevin Brown was from '96 to '00).  The title "best pitcher in baseball," however, was still a toss up between Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, so it isn't quite the same.  It was a great game though.  Brown tossed a shutout and struck out 11 Braves.  Glavine gave up only one run in six innings, but took the loss.

Sadly, Maddux and Martinez never faced each other in the postseason.  Maddux did, however, get a shot at Randy Johnson in Game 1 of the 2001 NLCS.  Johnson had just earned the third of his four straight NL Cy Youngs and was getting the ball rolling on what would be a notoriously great run of postseason starts.  Though Maddux was probably not the same pitcher he was when he won four consecutive Cys, his powers were not dramatically diminished and it would be another four years before he won less than 15 games in a season.  This was another game that lived up to its billing.  Johnson delivered a three-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts, while Maddux went seven strong and lost 2-0.

Probably the most famous showdown of this variety came in 1963, when on two occasions Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford, both of whom had led their respective leagues in victories that season, shared the mound for games one and four of the World Series.  In the opener, Koufax's infamous 15-K outing, the Dodgers roughed up Ford early and he only lasted five innings.  But the finale (it was a Dodgers sweep) saw both pitchers allow just a single earned run.  Ford allowed only two hits in seven innings, but a crucial error by Joe Pepitone (who let a throw get away from him on a routine groundout) set up a sacrifice fly, which was all Koufax needed to polish off the '63 Yankees for good.  

(Yes, I am implicitly comparing Roy Halladay to Sandy Koufax.  No, I don't think it's an exaggeration.)

As was the case for Maddux v. Johnson and, to a lesser extent, for Koufax v. Ford, what makes Lincecum v. Halladay even more exciting is the fact that these two pitchers, though both at the pinnacle of their profession, have dramatically different personalities and pitching styles.  Halladay is, of course, famously unflappable.  Ever calm and workmanlike, Doc's dedication to routine sometimes makes him seem robotic.  In interviews following the no-hitter he threw last week, in his first postseason start, he still spoke in an unwavering monotone.  After the final out was recorded, his feet never left the ground, there wasn't so much as a fist pump (the kind of thing which we see from many pitchers at the end of a routine inning).  He stood and smiled while Carlos Ruiz and his teammates celebrated his accomplishment giddily, looking all the while a little claustrophobic and uncertain whether it really warranted all the fuss.

Lincecum, on the other hand, is unabashedly emotive.  He can't restrain himself from cursing on live television.  In the last week he's looked like a kid in the midst of a prolonged sugar rush and the adrenaline even effected his ability to locate his pitches in the first inning of his NLDS start (he got over it quickly, obviously).

As a closer reading of the stats listed above reveals, though both are extremely effective, they go about their business in very different ways.  Lincecum is the epitome of the power pitcher.  Although he can occasionally finish a game, as he did during the NLDS, he relies heavily on the strikeout and is thus prone to higher pitchcounts and occasional wildness.  Halladay is certainly no slouch when it comes to getting a necessary strikeout, but he relies much more heavily on the defense behind him, almost never allows free passes, and takes great pride in finishing games.  As a result, of course, he gives up more hits and more homers.  Hitters come to the plate knowing he is going to have to throw strikes, so they are prepared to hack.  For Halladay, who has extraordinary movement on all his pitches, this often works to his advantage.

Adding even a little more excitement is the fact that Halladay and Lincecum are both streaking right now.  Obviously, the are both coming off outings which were among the best in playoff history.  You've probably heard all about it.  But, it goes back even further than that.  Halladay threw a two-hit shutout in his previous outing, to clinch the Phillies division title.  He has won each of his last six starts, and from July on is 13-3 with a 2.34 ERA.  Lincecum suffered probably the worst month of his young career in August, but rebounded in a major way in September.  In his last seven starts he is 6-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 66 K in 51 innings.  Clearly, neither is in the mood to lose.

There is, of course, always the possibility that one or both of these dominant Aces won't respond well to the prolonged rest, the hype, or, for whatever reason, won't have their best stuff.  We could end up seeing a 10-8 slugfest on Saturday...but I doubt it.  This is an extraordinarily rare opportunity to see two superlative players, at the height of their abilities, pitching against each other on the biggest stage.

Or you could watch college football.  Jackasses.

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...Rangers v. Rays Is Better Than You Think ('10 Division Series Preview)

On the one hand, I will miss the drama of the play-in game.  Such games have provided arguably the finest competition of the season in each of the past two Octobers.  However, wins from the Braves and Giants on Sunday eliminated the cinderella Padres, and in so doing, assured the best possible matchups in the NLDS.

Let's face it, the Padres played over their heads in the first half, and although they made a valiant effort to hold off the Giants in the waning days, their 30-30 record in the last two months is probably an accurate reflection of the quality of their team.  With a beleaguered young rotation, an overworked bullpen, and an empty lineup, it was a forgone conclusion that they would've gotten pummeled by whomever their opponent was in the NLDS, if they had managed to squeak in.  So, R.I.P. 2010 Padres...

I promise to get you your last two Narrative Likability Factors, for the Giants and Braves, before their series begins on Thursday, but for now, let's focus not on what we'd like to happen, but what's likely to happen.  Here's how I'd handicap the 2010 postseason...

ALDS: Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays

By beating the Royals on the final day of the regular season, the Rays wrapped up the AL East title and the best record in the American League.  As a reward, they'll get a first-round pairing with a Rangers team that has been coasting for most of the last two months and features the top starting pitcher on the AL side of the bracket, Cliff Lee, and the likely AL MVP, Josh Hamilton.

Although Tampa Bay sports the best rotational ERA among AL playoff teams (3.99), in a short series, Texas poses quite a challenge.  For starters, here are the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) numbers for each teams anticipated starters:

Texas:		Tampa:
Cliff Lee	7.0	David Price	4.3
C. J. Wilson	4.4	Matt Garza	2.0
Colby Lewis	4.4	Wade Davis	0.9
Tommy Hunter	0.7	James Shields	2.2

As you can see, when you adjust for park factors and competition (as WAR does), Texas appears to have three starters who are, at the very least, the equal of Tampa's best.  Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, either, as Matt Garza and Wade Davis were both much better in the second half.  Both teams have rotations replete with pitchers capable of dominating on any given night.  What these numbers suggest, however, is that those who are quick to cite the Rays pitching advantage have not really done their homework.  Cliff Lee went 4-0 last October.  If the Rays plan on advancing, they're going to need to find a way to get David Price at least one victory.

On offense, the Rays and Rangers ranked third and fourth in the AL in scoring.  However, while Texas was 2nd only to the Yankees in scoring at home, the Rays were tops in the AL on the road.  Perhaps we should expect pitching duels at Tropicana Field and slugfests when we move to Arlington.

Tampa definitely has the deeper roster, as Joe Maddon mixes and matches with Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Willy Aybar at RF, DH, and 2B.  All posses considerable power and are game-tested options off the bench when they don't start.  However, on both sides of the ball, the Rays are a better team for 162 than for 5 or 7.  As a unit, they hit for a very low average (.249) and are extremely susceptible to the strikeout, with 108 more Ks than any other team in the AL.  This could present a major problem when facing pitchers like Lee and Lewis, who have both overpowering stuff and excellent control.  Lee, Lewis, and Wilson all ranked in the top 25 in the AL in K/9, HR/9, and K/BB.  This could be a lethal combination of pitchers against a team that depends heavily on walks and homers.

The Rangers, on the other hand, led the American League in batting average (.276) behind free-swinging all-fields hitters like Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero.  They struck out infrequently (4th fewest in the AL) and still, like Tampa, hit plenty of homers.

I believe this will be the most evenly-matched series in the opening round and would be surprised if it didn't go to five games.  Both teams possess balanced attacks.  They've got deep bullpens, solid defenses, speed and power.  In the end, however, I think the Rangers approach on both sides of the ball will be more successful in a short series.

Texas in 5.

ALDS: New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins

The Twins have never beat the Yankees in a postseason series and have lost three Division matchups to them in the last seven seasons, so the "law of averages" is working in their favor, whatever that means.  Also working in their favor is their new ballpark, which boasted the biggest home-field advantage in the AL this season (53-28, .654), and where they are slated to host three ALDS games.

This is not the same Twins team which lost to the Yanks last October.  The lineup is deeper and perfectly balanced (4 lefties, 4 righties, 1 switch-hitter).  They have a legitimate Ace in the form of Francisco Liriano, who has a 3.12 career ERA against New York.  And, the pitching staff as a whole is back to being among the best in the league (4th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, 3rd in WAR) after an uncharacteristically bad showing in '09.

Also, this is not the same Yankee team that stomped through Minnesota on the way to their 27th Championship in 2009.  They won fewer games, scored fewer runs, and slumped down the stretch, winning only nine of their final 26 games (.346).  They've got question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen.  They have an atrocious infield defense.  They have struggled to hit southpaws.  In the lineup, only Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner have had "good" years, according to their own standards, while Derek Jeter and Lance Berkman have been downright bad.  Similarly, the rotation relies heavily on C. C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte, who made only four starts in the second half.

An abundance of chinks have been exposed in their armor, especially in the final two months of the regular season, yet they are still the defending champs.  The lineup is, as usual, loaded and experienced, and Sabathia will pitch twice, if given the chance.

In general, first-games have been crucial to Division Series victory.  Game 1 winners have advanced 73.3% of the time.  Last year they went 4-for-4.  In this series, Game 1 is even more critical, as both teams will lean heavily on their Aces.  If Liriano can neutralize Sabathia, the Twins become heavy favorites, as Hughes has struggled down the stretch, Burnett has been terrible all season, and Pettitte has yet to prove he's fully healthy.

Twins in 4.

NLDS: Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are clearly this year's runaway favorite in the NL.  They are a battle-tested veteran team which has been to each of the last two World Series and has an All-Star at every position (except catcher, though there was a good argument for Carlos Ruiz this year).  There is no indication that they've peaked, as they improved throughout the last four months, playing .500 ball in June, .536 in July, .643 in August, and a ridiculous .768 in September.  The lineup is deep as ever, and, as a silver lining to their pervasive midseason health problems, they're well-rested.  They have the best pitcher in baseball, and two others which ain't that shabby.  And, thanks to an NL All-Star victory, they've got home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

The Reds, on the other hand, depend heavily on young players, many of whom have never played baseball in October.  They've got no dominant starting pitchers, a slightly suspect closer, and an outfield corp that combined for over 500 strikeouts.

With the Phillies able to throw Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt exclusively, thanks to the eight-day schedule granted to the #1-seeded team, this has all the makings of a bloodbath.  That trio has a career record of 30-4 against the Reds, with an ERA well under 3.00.  I am very fond of what Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker have done in Cincinnati, but I can't find any matchup in which they're the favorite.  They managed only two wins in seven tries against the Phillies during the regular season, getting swept when they journeyed to Citizens Bank Park.  It wasn't just Padres fans who were rooting against the Braves and Giants yesterday.  Those wins put a dagger in the Reds resurgent season by punching their ticket to Philadelphia.

Phillies in 3.

NLDS: Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants

On the surface, these would appear to be two very similar teams.  They've got nearly identical records.  They both clinched on the last day of the season.  They both outscored their opponents by exactly 115 runs.  Both depended heavily upon dominant starting pitching, deep bullpens, and experienced managers who cobbled together mediocre lineups.   They both played significantly better at home.

Upon further review, however, they are not that evenly matched.  These are two ballclubs headed in opposite directions.  The Braves peaked in May, when they won 20 games and scored 163 runs.  Since then, their offensive production has taken a dive, due in part to a flurry of injuries, especially to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, both finished for the season.  In September they scored just 105 runs on route to a 14-16 record.  Their pitching also faltered.  While Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe were excellent down the stretch, the Braves lost Jair Jurrjens to another injury and Tim Hudson, who was a Cy Young candidate as late as September 1st, posted a 5.32 ERA and four losses in his final month.

The Giants picked up their pace dramatically following the All-Star Break, and won 19 games in September.  Scoring improved following the promotions of Andres Torres and Buster Posey, and the acquisition of Pat Burrell.  And the Giants pitching, good throughout the season, became unhittable down the stretch, with a 1.91 ERA in the final month.

By winning on Sunday, the Giants assured that Tim Lincecum could be slated for a pair of starts.  The Freak went 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 52 K in 42 September innings.  Jonathan Sanchez was even better, going 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 48 K in 44 innings over his last seven outings.  Even with Bobby Cox's good karma, I don't see how the Braves survive.

Giants in 4.

Sunday Showdown Situation

It would have been easy for the Phillies to play complacently this weekend.  It has certainly been the habit of the other postseason-bound franchises.  Minnesota has been giving away games since the moment they clinched.  Even the Yankees and Rays, playing for home-field advantage and a division title, have seemed uninspired of late, as though it matters little to them where or whom they play in the ALDS.  Fair enough.  

Charlie Manuel and his Phillies, however, realized, facing a three-game finale with the division rival Braves, that if they didn't attempt to put the stake in Atlanta's heart, they might very well regret it.  They were, after all, just 8-7 against the Braves entering the weekend, and Atlanta has been near unbeatable in their home ballpark all season.  If the Braves managed to clinch the Wild Card they could very easily become a "team of destiny" playing in front of retiring manager Bobby Cox and be Philadelphia's opponent in the NLCS.

Though that scenario is still possible, big wins behind Kyle Kendrick and Antonio Bastardo made it significantly less likely, as the Phils send Cole Hamels and his 2.28 ERA in the second half to the mound on Sunday looking to send Atlanta home for good.  If the Braves lose and the Padres beat the Giants, Atlanta's season will be over, as both West Coast team will advance.  If the Padres and Braves both lose, they would be on track for a one-game Wild Card playoff.

Both Atlanta and San Francisco could've made the playoff picture a lot simpler by winning a single game this weekend, but their four losses combined have opened up the possibility of not only a Game 163, as we've had in each of the last three seasons, but possibly the first ever Game 164.  If the Braves and Padres both win tomorrow, than the Giants will have to remain in San Diego to play a fourth game to decide the NL West Champion on Monday.  The loser of that game would then have to travel to Atlanta for a one-game showdown on Tuesday for the NL Wild Card.

Obviously, as a baseball fan, I'm totally psyched about this, as these "win or go home" games have proved absolutely scintillating, but such a road would probably spell doom for the teams involved, as they would be unable to set their rotation for the NLDS, which begins on Wednesday.  The Giants, for instance, would probably throw Tim Lincecum on Monday, which would rule him out for the first two games of the NLDS and limit him to just one start in that series.  On Tuesday, the Braves would likely turn to Derek Lowe, who won every one of his September starts (5-0), thus making him similarly limited in the first round, were they to advance.

All three of these teams are built on pitching.  San Francisco and Atlanta are particularly dependent on their frontline starters.  If they are unable to take advantage of that strength, they are almost a synch to get rolled over by a superior, balanced team like the Phillies or Reds.

-----

As a brief aside, the correlation between wins and good fortune has been fervently debated lately, thanks to the truly ridiculous fact that Felix Hernandez has only 13 victories, despite being far and away the best pitcher in the AL this season.  We can add a little fuel to that fire by pointing to the year of Ubaldo Jimenez, which ended today with eight inning of three-hit ball against the Cardinals (he left the game tied at zero).  Because Jimenez had 15 victories at the All-Star Break, yet will finish with just 19, many will conclude he scuffled in the second half, perhaps even suggest his first three months were flukish.  A closer look however shows that Jimenez has made nine quality starts in his last thirteen outings, yet has only the four victories to show for it.  On three separate occasions he went 8 innings, yet took a loss or a no decision.  His strikeout rate has actually gone up in the second half, while his homerun rate has gone down.  Jimenez may have been a little lucky before the break, but he has more than made up for it with bad luck after the break.  Don't be fooled.      

Set the DVR, it's Duels Week

With a third of the season in the bag, there's a lot to talk about this coming week, but I'd like to start by pointing out that there are a disproportionate number of really exciting pitching matchups slated for the first week of June, so if you're like me and you love nothing more than a pitchers duel, here's how you should set your calender for the first half of the week:

Monday, 5/31:
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) 9-1, 0.88 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 61 K, 71 1/3 IP
Tim Lincecum (Giants) 5-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 80 K, 66 IP

We kick it off with what should really be billed as "the main event," the two-time reigning NL Cy Young against his heir apparent, both pitching for teams in the thick of the NL West race.  Lincecum is in a miniature slump (11 ER, 11 BB in last two starts), but I'm willing to bet he's primed to bounce back.  Jimenez has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start!

Tuesday, 6/1:
Cole Hamels (Phillies) 5-3, 3.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 63 K, 63 2/3 IP
Tim Hudson (Braves) 5-1, 2.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27 K, 64 1/3 IP

Again we've got a pair of division rivals, this time featuring a pair of rebounding Aces.  They also happen to represent two wildly different approaches.  Hudson has quietly been among the best pitchers in the NL, despite carrying one of baseball's lowest strikeout rates (3.78 K/9).  He attacks the strike zone and has hitters pounding his sinker into the ground.  His groundball rate (67.3%) is the highest in baseball and he's tied for tops in the NL at inducing double plays.  Hamels, on the other hand, has the ninth highest strikeout rate in the NL (8.91 K/9) and is far more prone to flyball, which is part of the reason he's already allowed ten dingers this season.  Hamels is also in the midst of a serious hot streak.  In May he went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA.

Wednesday, 6/2:
David Price (Rays) 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 50 K, 66 2/3 IP
Shaun Marcum (Jays) 5-1, 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 60 K, 73 IP

The Jays and Rays are two of the most surprising teams in the American League, due in no small part to the performance of these two young Aces.  The 28-year-old Marcum returned from a season lost to injury and has been downright dominant from the outset.  He's second in the AL in innings, fifth in ERA, third in WHIP, seventh in batting average against, and eighth in strikeouts.  The 24-year-old Price has been his equal in almost every respect.  He leads the AL in wins, is second in batting average against, ninth in WHIP, tenth in innings, and fourth in ERA.  This matchup takes on an additional interest because both teams boast powerhouse offenses, ranked #2 and #4 in scoring.

Thursday, 6/3:
Jered Weaver (Angels) 4-2, 3.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 74 K, 68 2/3 IP
Zack Greinke (Royals) 1-5, 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 52 K, 65 IP

Greinke and Weaver have more experience than Price and Marcum, but are still both in their mid-twenties.  And, to a significant extent, they are similar pitchers, both on the level of talent and approach.  They balance a terrifying arsenal of pitches with tremendous control and, as a result, both are in the top five in the American League in K/BB rate.  They are also both extreme flyball pitchers, ranking #1 and #2 in the AL in that category.

Fantastic Thoughts: "Mark Buehrle may not be much to look at, but he's got a great personality." (Starting Pitcher Preview)

Rather than ranking hundreds of pitchers in a fashion which can be frustrating to manage during your draft or auction, I suggest grouping pitchers according to types.  This can be done in a number of ways, not necessarily exclusively those that I've outlined below, but I like to aim for getting at least one pitcher from each of my tiers (with the exception of #7, where I've put a number of guys who I will be flat-out ignoring).  You can still take a second or third guy from any one of the categories, if it fits your strategy or they are being undervalued, but this method will protect you somewhat from ending up with too many injury risks, too many unproven youngsters, too many low-strikeout veterans, or overspending on pitching in the early rounds.  It's not a perfect system, but I can boast that in the keeper league I invented it for I have now led the league in pitching staff scoring for three consecutive seasons, even though I only spend about 25% of my money on pitching.

Also, keep in mind, that although pitchers who I've grouped together share some particular trait, their potential and their risk can vary dramatically from #1 to #20, which also roughly suggests where they'll be available in the draft.  Say, for instance, that the first two pitchers I select are Matt Cain (#11) and Carlos Zambrano (#9), I will probably try to get a top five guy from the "upside" group and at least a top ten guy from the "rubber arms" group.  However, if I already have Roy Halladay (#1) and Yovani Gallardo (#6), I'll probably wait until deeper in the draft to spring for guys like Derek Lowe (#15), Manny Parra (#17), and Gavin Floyd (#11).  You probably don't want to just lift my tiers verbatim, but rather design your own to fit the particular scoring rules and roster requirements of your league.


#1: Bonafide Aces

1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)
2. Tim Lincecum (Giants)
3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)
4. Johan Santana (Mets)
5. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)
6. Justin Verlander (Tigers)
7. Cliff Lee (Mariners)
8. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)
9. Dan Haren (D-Backs)
10. Jon Lester (Red Sox)
11. Matt Cain (Giants)
12. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

If you are going to draft a pitcher in the first five rounds of a standard (10-team) league, make it be one of these fellows.  Now, I'm not saying you need a pitcher that early in the draft.  There are plenty of workable strategies that don't require a bonafide Ace, but if you go that route, go with these proven commodities.  Every one of these players has had multiple seasons of excellence and remains in the prime of his career.

You can bicker with my rankings, especially at the top.  I chose Halladay over Lincecum mainly because he'll get a lot more run support, and therefore have a better chance at accumulating wins, but there's a strong chance Lincecum leads him in strikeouts by a sizable margin.  If there is any uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana's health by the middle of Spring Training, he falls out of this class.  Same goes for Carpenter and Lee.  Again, if you're drafting a pitcher early, you need somebody who is at least seemingly without risk.

#2: Aces?

1. Zack Greinke (Royals)
2. Brandon Webb (D-Backs)
3. Josh Beckett (Red Sox)
4. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)
5. Josh Johnson (Marlins)
6. Yovani Gallardo (Brewers)
7. Javier Vazquez (Braves)
8. Matt Garza (Rays)
9. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
10. Ricky Nolasco (Marlins)
11. Cole Hamels (Phillies)
12. Scott Kazmir (Angels)
13. Jake Peavy (White Sox)

I'm perfectly content with one of these hurlers as a #1 pitcher.  All have proven their ability to pitch like an Ace.  Just don't reach for them too early, because either youth (Jimenez), health (Johnson), or an inexplicable disposition (Zambrano) have prevented them from doing it consistently.

It will be tempting to overreach for Greinke after his Cy Young season.  Sure, I think he has permanently "arrived," but the 2009 numbers are difficult to duplicate, especially as he continues to pitch for the worst team in baseball.  There is no doubt that the prolonged frustration and perfectionism which results from pitching in front of a bad defense that never scores you any runs can have an effect on the psyche and eventually the stats of even great pitchers.  We saw it with Cliff Lee in the first half of '09 and with Matt Cain in '08.

#3: Rubber Arms

1. A. J. Burnett (Yankees)
2. John Lackey (Red Sox)
3. James Shields (Rays)
4. Jered Weaver (Angels)
5. Roy Oswalt (Astros)
6. Wandy Rodriguez (Astros)
7. Edwin Jackson (D-Backs)
8. Bronson Arroyo (Reds)
9. Ted Lilly (Cubs)
10. Mark Buehrle (White Sox)
11. Ryan Dempster (Cubs)
12. Scott Baker (Twins)
13. Joe Saunders (Angels)
14. John Danks (White Sox)
15. Derek Lowe (Braves)
16. Kevin Millwood (Orioles)
17. Joe Blanton (Phillies)
18. Andy Pettitte (Yankees)

Guys from this tier are notoriously underrated.  In fact, you'll likely end up selecting one of your high-upside #4 or #5 guys prior to somebody from the bottom half of this list.  But, by the end of the season, these guys will have quietly accumulated the stats to justify at least #3 status and, as such, will have a very special place in your heart.  The most underrated statistic in fantasy baseball is 30+ games started.

I could confidently sell you on any one of these guys, but this season I'll honor Joe Saunders, who, in 2009, posted his second consecutive season of 31 starts, 185+ innings, and 16+ wins.  His ERA rose above where you'd like it (4.60), mainly due to a rough midsummer stretch, but he finished strong, going 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his final eight starts.  He doesn't turn 29 until June and he pitches in the midst of a fairly deep rotation on a team that was second in the league in scoring in 2009.  It's a fine situation.