There were some interesting late-Hot Stove signings this past week. Most notably, Vlad Guerrero finally landed in Baltimore, as many had been anticipating. As I discussed last week, I'm not completely sold on this move for the Orioles because I don't think it gets them into playoff picture, but a one-year, $8 Million contract for a 35-year-old coming off a pretty impressive resurgence is totally reasonable. I'm certainly rooting for Vlad to have enough good years in him to pile up a few HOF milestones (he currently sits at 2427 hits, 436 HR, 1433 RBI).
A much sneakier deal got done in Chicago, as Kenny Williams showed his caginess in the acquisition of Lastings Milledge. Once considered a top prospect, Milledge, now entering his sixth season (but still only 25-years-old) has gotten pegged with the "bad attitude" label. Certainly, his performance has been pretty putrid in New York, Washington, and Pittsburgh, but he was clearly rushed through the minors and a breakout year is well within the realm of possibility (see Delmon Young in 2010). Milledge could steal some at-bats from Juan Pierre and provide insurance for the oft-injured Carlos Quentin. The White Sox needed somebody to fill that role. At $500,000, Milledge could be a steal.
There's not much left of the 2011 free agent class, but here's a couple of players who your team could still find a use for...
Jeremy Bonderman - SP
Bonderman's overall numbers in 2010 were pretty abyssmal (8-10, 5.53 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). But the most important number was this one: 171 IP. For a guy who missed most of the previous two season recovering from shoulder surgeries, that's a pretty impressive workload. After such a long layoff, one can certainly see how it might take Bonderman a full year to get anywhere near full strength. However, if he does regain at least a modicum of his former talent, he would be a downright steal. Before his shoulder problems, he looked destined to be a solid #2 or #3 in any rotation. He's still just 28. The only team who's reported any interest in Bonderman thusfar is the Indians, which seems a fairly logical fit. The Yankees seem to be collecting pitching projects and Bonderman is certainly no more of a long shot than some of those they've already brought on board. Other reasonable suitors include the Mariners, Nationals, Cardinals, and Pirates.
Cristian Guzman - 2B/SS
Guzman didn't help his case by faring poorly as a super-utility player in Texas after a midseason trade, but he's a very underrated middle infielder who hits for a decent average, consistently puts the ball in play, and is at least an average defender at two difficult positions. And let's face it, there's not a ton of shortstop talent around these days. The Astros, Brewers, Pirates, and Mariners are all currently limited to guys with far worse track records than Guzman.
Showing posts with label Jeremy Bonderman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeremy Bonderman. Show all posts
Monday, February 07, 2011
Tuesday, November 09, 2010
FireJoeMorgan.com About To Go The Way Of FireEricBruntlett.com?
The biggest news so far this offseason may be the prompt dismissal of the longest-tenured national broadcast team in professional baseball, Jon Miller and Joe Morgan. There have long been objections to Morgan's stubborn subjectivity and frequent bouts of megalomania masquerading as nostalgia, but ESPN finally pulled the plug following a second failed attempt at enlivening the broadcast with some fresh blood. In 2009, they temporarily turned to Steve Phillips, with hilarious results. One might even surmise that the weekly public emasculations drove Phillips into the arms of Bristol interns. This year the network forced Orel "Bulldog" Hershiser upon the Un-Dynamic Duo. Living up to his nickname, I'd say Hershiser held his ground, defending himself calmly and articulately against Morgan's tendency to contradict everything he had to say with condescension and even vitriol. I wouldn't be surprised if Bulldog is back in the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball booth in 2011, alongside some new partners. Although I've been watching Sunday Night broadcasts on mute for most of the last half-decade, I will admit feeling a slight pang when reading the announcement. Miller and Morgan were beloved figures in my childhood, before I realized that Morgan's color commentary had about as much variety as a Speak 'N' Spell. And, although I find his pandering unfortunate (but probably necessary), I still find Miller to be a fine radio-style play-by-play man with a soothing voice. They won't be missed, but they will be remembered.
Jhonny Come Lhately
SPH S.S.S. Update
Those who followed my 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey may be interested to know that no fewer than five of the eight participants will be free agents this winter. It would've been six had it not been for the Dodgers eagerness to wrap up Ted Lilly before he got a chance to test the market (3 yrs./$33 Million). Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, and Jeff Francis will all likely be pushed into single-season, incentive-laden deals, since none of them were able to prove themselves healthy before the end of the year. Freddy Garcia, on the other hand, threw over 150 innings before being shut down with a minor back injury in September. He was far from dominant, but could be very tempting for teams interested in a cheap innings-eater to slot in to the back of their youthful rotation. Detroit could be a logical fit, in fact, as could Cleveland, Baltimore, St. Louis, or Washington.
The most interesting player from amongst the survey participants is definitely Jeremy Bonderman. Bonderman ended the year poorly, but showed flashes of his former potential and did not make any return trips to the D.L. He's still in his twenties and was once among the most promising young players in the A.L. New scenery could be good for him, as will another year of remove from his injury. Perhaps he's ready for the Dave Duncan treatment in 2011?
B-Stars
It'll be several months before Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, and Adrian Beltre have all signed and we can start identifying potential steals from amongst this free agent class, but I'd direct your attention to a couple underrated players hitting the market.
Miguel Olivo's production fell off the table in the second half, to the extent that it almost looks like he might've been playing through an injury. But Olivo really should've been the NL starter at the All-Star Game, after hitting .325 with 11 HR and a 925 OPS in his first three months with Colorado. His inability to maintain that pace isn't too surprising, but Olivo has definitely proved himself an outstanding game-caller and thrower, who is also a better than average hitter for his position. Catchers of his caliber are truly rare, yet he's been consistently overlooked (which happens when you play for Florida and Kansas City). I expect he could be a good fit for the Reds, Mets, Mariners, or Rangers.
The Peralta signing is explained in part by the fact that the middle infield class is very weak this year. As such, this may finally be the winter that Orlando Hudson gets the multiyear deal he so richly deserves. O-Dog was clearly beloved by his Minnesota teammates. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he agrees to return. He was the eighth most valuable second-baseman in 2010, worth more than $12 Million according to FanGraphs for the second year in the row. Despite the consistency of his production (with one minor hiccup during an injury-plagued 2008), Hudson has had to accept a succession of one-year deals for much less than he's worth. The Cubs, Astros, Mets, Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, and Twins all need to fill gaping holes at second base and the only other free agents who play there are utilitymen like Felipe Lopez, David Eckstein, Bill Hall, and Cristian Guzman. Hudson might finally have the bargaining leverage he needs.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
The SPH 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey (a.k.a. More Bad News For Mets Fans)
Due to my hectic summer, I haven't made an S.S.S. update for several months, but with one of the game's most prominent pitchers, Johan Santana, going under the knife, I thought it was probably an appropriate time to renew our discussion. (To track how this all began, you can go here.)
I'm going to start with the good news.
The 2010 poster-child for shoulder rehabilitation has to be Ted Lilly. Lilly was back on a major-league mound approximately seven months after having his "frayed labrum" repaired and before long he was again among the most dependent, durable, and underrated pitchers in the National League. His record for 2010 is just 8-11, due in large part to playing on a pair of teams (Cubs & Dodgers) which seem to be coming apart at the seems. Lilly's overall numbers are solid (3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 141 K, 172 IP) and very similar to what he posted immediately preceding the operation (3.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 151 K, 177 IP). Lilly may be showing a little fatigue. He began his tenure with the Dodgers by winning his first five starts, but is 0-3 with a 7.47 ERA in his last four. One could speculate that this is a result of a diminished strength-building routine following the surgery last offseason, but it could also merely be the result of natural tendency towards indifference bred of being a veteran on a team that no longer has a shot at the postseason. This rough stretch aside, however, Lilly has done plenty to prove that the injury should not effect his bargaining position when he hits the free agent market this winter.
There have also been positive developments from Jeremy Bonderman. Bonderman missed well over a year following his surgery, in part because he re-injured the shoulder trying to make too quick a return. A note of caution to Santana and the Mets: Bonderman's injury was not unlike that which Johan recently suffered and, in general, there is a tendency toward re-injury following these surgeries. Bonderman struggled getting back into sync following his long layoff, posting a 6.97 ERA in April, but has steadily improved over the course of the season. Since May 1, he's 7-8 with a 4.75 ERA. That's still a far cry from the pitcher who helped the Tigers get to the World Series a few years back, but there have been glimpses of that former glory. Last week he shut down the White Sox for eight innings, allowing only three hits and striking out eight. Perhaps this is a flash of what we can expect from a fully recovered Bonderman in 2011? If not, he has still proven himself to be capable of being a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater.
Freddy Garcia played a similar role for the White Sox this season, his first full year since having his labrum repaired way back in 2007. Garcia posted a strong record, 11-6, for the ChiSox, but with modest overall numbers (4.88 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 83 K, 144 IP) before being shut down earlier this month due to an unrelated back injury. It's apparent that, at 36, Garcia will never be the Ace he was earlier in his career, but he did manage sixteen quality starts (62%) in 2010. You might be surprised to find that's more than All-Stars like Johnny Cueto, Yovani Gallardo, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes.
Nagging injuries were a prevalent issue for our survey participants, perhaps no surprise considering the long period spent away from the game following their operations. Not only could it effect their endurance, but also potentially their mechanics. Reports out of Colorado this preseason suggested that Jeff Francis was having to completely relearn his delivery. Francis continued to feel "tightness" in his pitching shoulder even after his return in mid-May, which forced him back to the D.L. after about half a season of work. In his 17 starts he has been, much like Bonderman and Garcia, respectable but unspectacular (4-5, 4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 61 K, 96 IP). He's mixed in a couple of gems (for instance, seven innings of three-hit ball against Florida in July), but also failed to get past the third inning on two occasions. The Rockies are expecting him to take over Aaron Cook's spot in the rotation for the next two weeks. We'll see whether he can rise to the occasion following a month of rest.
Sadly, considering how modest these results are, that's the end of the "good" news. Of the eight players we began tracking at the beginning of the season, only these four managed to make it back to the mound in 2010. The Mariners were cautiously optimistic that Erik Bedard would be ready by the All-Star Break, but he also fell victim to the urgency of his rehab and ended up having a "setback" which resulted in yet another surgery, this time to remove a bone spur. As yet, there's still no timetable for his return. The same can be said of Brandon Webb and Chien-Ming Wang, two other former All-Stars who may never fully recover from their injuries. Webb is tentatively hoping to make a couple of relief appearances before the end of the season, but the D-Backs have been slow to confirm that report. Having now missed almost two full seasons, it is impossible to predict what the former Cy Young winner will look like if he is indeed ready for Opening Day in 2011. The future of Wang, the former Yankee Ace, is even more uncertain. Same for Dustin McGowan, the promising young Blue Jays starter, who also had an additional surgery in June and is unlikely to be ready in time for Opening Day 2011.
All told, that's a pretty dismal picture of Johan's prospects. Of these eight pitchers, seven of them missed a season or more rehabbing after surgery. Of the four who have made it back to the mound, only one has come anywhere near his previous level of effectiveness. While Santana isn't dealing with major labrum or rotator cuff repairs, the "torn capsule" is the same thing which Bonderman and Wang were treated for, and both missed well over a season. It would be wise, based on this track record, if the Mets reconsidered their intentions of trying to have him ready in the first half of 2011. That seems fairly far-fetched. And, as we saw with several of these cases, the urgency to return can actually prolong and exacerbate the injury, even to the point to requiring additional surgery. I would not expect Santana to be ready before August of next year. Even then it is unlikely he will immediately pitch like an Ace. Unfortunately, he may never again look like the perennial Cy Young candidate we've come to expect.
I'm going to start with the good news.
The 2010 poster-child for shoulder rehabilitation has to be Ted Lilly. Lilly was back on a major-league mound approximately seven months after having his "frayed labrum" repaired and before long he was again among the most dependent, durable, and underrated pitchers in the National League. His record for 2010 is just 8-11, due in large part to playing on a pair of teams (Cubs & Dodgers) which seem to be coming apart at the seems. Lilly's overall numbers are solid (3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 141 K, 172 IP) and very similar to what he posted immediately preceding the operation (3.10 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 151 K, 177 IP). Lilly may be showing a little fatigue. He began his tenure with the Dodgers by winning his first five starts, but is 0-3 with a 7.47 ERA in his last four. One could speculate that this is a result of a diminished strength-building routine following the surgery last offseason, but it could also merely be the result of natural tendency towards indifference bred of being a veteran on a team that no longer has a shot at the postseason. This rough stretch aside, however, Lilly has done plenty to prove that the injury should not effect his bargaining position when he hits the free agent market this winter.
There have also been positive developments from Jeremy Bonderman. Bonderman missed well over a year following his surgery, in part because he re-injured the shoulder trying to make too quick a return. A note of caution to Santana and the Mets: Bonderman's injury was not unlike that which Johan recently suffered and, in general, there is a tendency toward re-injury following these surgeries. Bonderman struggled getting back into sync following his long layoff, posting a 6.97 ERA in April, but has steadily improved over the course of the season. Since May 1, he's 7-8 with a 4.75 ERA. That's still a far cry from the pitcher who helped the Tigers get to the World Series a few years back, but there have been glimpses of that former glory. Last week he shut down the White Sox for eight innings, allowing only three hits and striking out eight. Perhaps this is a flash of what we can expect from a fully recovered Bonderman in 2011? If not, he has still proven himself to be capable of being a back-of-the-rotation innings-eater.
Freddy Garcia played a similar role for the White Sox this season, his first full year since having his labrum repaired way back in 2007. Garcia posted a strong record, 11-6, for the ChiSox, but with modest overall numbers (4.88 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 83 K, 144 IP) before being shut down earlier this month due to an unrelated back injury. It's apparent that, at 36, Garcia will never be the Ace he was earlier in his career, but he did manage sixteen quality starts (62%) in 2010. You might be surprised to find that's more than All-Stars like Johnny Cueto, Yovani Gallardo, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes.
Nagging injuries were a prevalent issue for our survey participants, perhaps no surprise considering the long period spent away from the game following their operations. Not only could it effect their endurance, but also potentially their mechanics. Reports out of Colorado this preseason suggested that Jeff Francis was having to completely relearn his delivery. Francis continued to feel "tightness" in his pitching shoulder even after his return in mid-May, which forced him back to the D.L. after about half a season of work. In his 17 starts he has been, much like Bonderman and Garcia, respectable but unspectacular (4-5, 4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 61 K, 96 IP). He's mixed in a couple of gems (for instance, seven innings of three-hit ball against Florida in July), but also failed to get past the third inning on two occasions. The Rockies are expecting him to take over Aaron Cook's spot in the rotation for the next two weeks. We'll see whether he can rise to the occasion following a month of rest.
Sadly, considering how modest these results are, that's the end of the "good" news. Of the eight players we began tracking at the beginning of the season, only these four managed to make it back to the mound in 2010. The Mariners were cautiously optimistic that Erik Bedard would be ready by the All-Star Break, but he also fell victim to the urgency of his rehab and ended up having a "setback" which resulted in yet another surgery, this time to remove a bone spur. As yet, there's still no timetable for his return. The same can be said of Brandon Webb and Chien-Ming Wang, two other former All-Stars who may never fully recover from their injuries. Webb is tentatively hoping to make a couple of relief appearances before the end of the season, but the D-Backs have been slow to confirm that report. Having now missed almost two full seasons, it is impossible to predict what the former Cy Young winner will look like if he is indeed ready for Opening Day in 2011. The future of Wang, the former Yankee Ace, is even more uncertain. Same for Dustin McGowan, the promising young Blue Jays starter, who also had an additional surgery in June and is unlikely to be ready in time for Opening Day 2011.
All told, that's a pretty dismal picture of Johan's prospects. Of these eight pitchers, seven of them missed a season or more rehabbing after surgery. Of the four who have made it back to the mound, only one has come anywhere near his previous level of effectiveness. While Santana isn't dealing with major labrum or rotator cuff repairs, the "torn capsule" is the same thing which Bonderman and Wang were treated for, and both missed well over a season. It would be wise, based on this track record, if the Mets reconsidered their intentions of trying to have him ready in the first half of 2011. That seems fairly far-fetched. And, as we saw with several of these cases, the urgency to return can actually prolong and exacerbate the injury, even to the point to requiring additional surgery. I would not expect Santana to be ready before August of next year. Even then it is unlikely he will immediately pitch like an Ace. Unfortunately, he may never again look like the perennial Cy Young candidate we've come to expect.
Sunday, June 06, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Ten)
Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues). If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to the next post. I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN. Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active. However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league. Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Nine)
Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues). If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to the next post. I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN. Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active. However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league. Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Eight)
Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues). If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to the next post. I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN. Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active. However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league. Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
SPH 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey (May)
In honor of Jeff Francis's return to the mound, I'm providing the fourth installment in my 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey. The cast of active participants increased by one this afternoon, as Francis squared off with the Nationals. It was Francis' first start since September of 2008.
Much like Brandon Webb, Francis entered Spring Training with the intent of being ready for Opening Day. Unfortunately, his progress stalled and was complicated by an unrelated injury to his back, thus delaying him by about six weeks. The Rockies were cautious with his rehab, so he arrived in Colorado prepared to throw around 100 pitches.
Although it's been twenty months since his last appearance, in this start it looked like he'd never left. He allowed a couple hits, a walk, and a run in the first inning, but Francis, like many soft-tossing lefties, has always tended to struggle in the opening frame (6.37 career ERA, his highest for any inning). Thereafter, he settled in and allowed only five hits, a walk, and no runs over the next six. He also struck out six. Francis mixed in all four of his pitches (fastball, changeup, sligder, curve) and touched 91 MPH, although he was more consistently in the 88-89 range. In the seventh, possibly tiring, Francis gave up two singles to start the inning, but was able to strand them by getting a pair of strikeouts and a pop-up. He induced nine groundballs, including a key double-play to end the sixth.
The Rockies need Francis to pitch like he did today, as they are still without their #2 starter, Jorge De La Rosa and haven't gotten much from either Aaron Cook (1-3, 5.80 ERA) or Jason Hammel (1-2, 7.71 ERA). If Francis can eat some innings, it will help take the pressure of Ubaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin, and the bullpen, which has been among the best in the NL (117 IP, 3.08 ERA).
This afternoon also featured the fourth start of the season from Ted Lilly, another member of the S.S.S. roster. Lilly managed seven strong innings, allowing six hits, three walks, and three earned runs. Like Francis, he took a no-decision, but his team did end up with the win. It clearly took Lilly a couple outings to shake off the rust, but he's been building up his pitch counts and has quality starts in each of his last two games. There's little reason to believe that he isn't prepared to be the same dependable top-of-the-rotation starter he has been for the Cubs since they signed him.
A very similar scenario is developing across town, as Freddy Garcia has started to really round into form. He's 2-0 in May with a 2.77 ERA, after going 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in April. He'll be tested a little this coming week, as he'll take the mound against the division rival Tigers and the Florida Marlins, who have some thunder and are on a bit of a hot streak (swept the Mets in a four-game series, won six of their last seven). Ozzie Guillen has been a little conservative with Garcia, who has only thrown 100+ pitches once so far, but he's still be able to go at least six innings in five of six outings, which speaks well for his efficiency.
Jeremy Bonderman has also shown a dramatic improvement since the calender turned. He's had bad luck in terms of decisions (0-1), but has posted a 2.08 ERA in his last fourteen innings and has clearly regained his control, giving up just one free pass over that span. The Tigers are no doubt a bit concerned with his velocity. His average fastball speed so far this season is 89.5 MPH, significantly lower than his career mark of 92.5 MPH. In his last start, an excellent seven-inning outing against the Yankees, Bonderman topped out a 93 MPH and pitched consistently in the 89-90 range. This, coming from a guy who at one time could occasionally reach the upper nineties. Certainly, Bonderman has enough movement, control, and variety in his pitches to be effective even with lowered velocity, but the Tigers have pushed back his next start, perhaps partly to see if his arm will be at all rejuvenated by a full week of rest.
Of the eight members of our survey, those are the only four who have pitched in the majors thusfar in 2010. Of the guys remaining on the D.L., Erik Bedard is probably the closest to joining a rotation. He has progressed much faster than expected and the Mariners expect him to start throwing off the mound within a week, which still puts his return date somewhere around a month away. Brandon Webb is throwing from flat ground, but as yet there's no timetable for rehabbing him into pitching shape, so an All-Star Break return seems optimistic. The Nationals have set a tentative date for Chien-Ming Wang debut at July 1st. Finally, Dustin McGowan, the Blue Jays youngster, who had perhaps the most serious injury of any of our participants, is still working primarily on a strengthening program. No timetable has been set, and with many young Jays pitchers performing well, there seems no reason to rush him. It seems to me only about 50/50 that McGowan pitches this season.
Much like Brandon Webb, Francis entered Spring Training with the intent of being ready for Opening Day. Unfortunately, his progress stalled and was complicated by an unrelated injury to his back, thus delaying him by about six weeks. The Rockies were cautious with his rehab, so he arrived in Colorado prepared to throw around 100 pitches.
Although it's been twenty months since his last appearance, in this start it looked like he'd never left. He allowed a couple hits, a walk, and a run in the first inning, but Francis, like many soft-tossing lefties, has always tended to struggle in the opening frame (6.37 career ERA, his highest for any inning). Thereafter, he settled in and allowed only five hits, a walk, and no runs over the next six. He also struck out six. Francis mixed in all four of his pitches (fastball, changeup, sligder, curve) and touched 91 MPH, although he was more consistently in the 88-89 range. In the seventh, possibly tiring, Francis gave up two singles to start the inning, but was able to strand them by getting a pair of strikeouts and a pop-up. He induced nine groundballs, including a key double-play to end the sixth.
The Rockies need Francis to pitch like he did today, as they are still without their #2 starter, Jorge De La Rosa and haven't gotten much from either Aaron Cook (1-3, 5.80 ERA) or Jason Hammel (1-2, 7.71 ERA). If Francis can eat some innings, it will help take the pressure of Ubaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin, and the bullpen, which has been among the best in the NL (117 IP, 3.08 ERA).
This afternoon also featured the fourth start of the season from Ted Lilly, another member of the S.S.S. roster. Lilly managed seven strong innings, allowing six hits, three walks, and three earned runs. Like Francis, he took a no-decision, but his team did end up with the win. It clearly took Lilly a couple outings to shake off the rust, but he's been building up his pitch counts and has quality starts in each of his last two games. There's little reason to believe that he isn't prepared to be the same dependable top-of-the-rotation starter he has been for the Cubs since they signed him.
A very similar scenario is developing across town, as Freddy Garcia has started to really round into form. He's 2-0 in May with a 2.77 ERA, after going 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in April. He'll be tested a little this coming week, as he'll take the mound against the division rival Tigers and the Florida Marlins, who have some thunder and are on a bit of a hot streak (swept the Mets in a four-game series, won six of their last seven). Ozzie Guillen has been a little conservative with Garcia, who has only thrown 100+ pitches once so far, but he's still be able to go at least six innings in five of six outings, which speaks well for his efficiency.
Jeremy Bonderman has also shown a dramatic improvement since the calender turned. He's had bad luck in terms of decisions (0-1), but has posted a 2.08 ERA in his last fourteen innings and has clearly regained his control, giving up just one free pass over that span. The Tigers are no doubt a bit concerned with his velocity. His average fastball speed so far this season is 89.5 MPH, significantly lower than his career mark of 92.5 MPH. In his last start, an excellent seven-inning outing against the Yankees, Bonderman topped out a 93 MPH and pitched consistently in the 89-90 range. This, coming from a guy who at one time could occasionally reach the upper nineties. Certainly, Bonderman has enough movement, control, and variety in his pitches to be effective even with lowered velocity, but the Tigers have pushed back his next start, perhaps partly to see if his arm will be at all rejuvenated by a full week of rest.
Of the eight members of our survey, those are the only four who have pitched in the majors thusfar in 2010. Of the guys remaining on the D.L., Erik Bedard is probably the closest to joining a rotation. He has progressed much faster than expected and the Mariners expect him to start throwing off the mound within a week, which still puts his return date somewhere around a month away. Brandon Webb is throwing from flat ground, but as yet there's no timetable for rehabbing him into pitching shape, so an All-Star Break return seems optimistic. The Nationals have set a tentative date for Chien-Ming Wang debut at July 1st. Finally, Dustin McGowan, the Blue Jays youngster, who had perhaps the most serious injury of any of our participants, is still working primarily on a strengthening program. No timetable has been set, and with many young Jays pitchers performing well, there seems no reason to rush him. It seems to me only about 50/50 that McGowan pitches this season.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
SPH 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey (April)
As April began, bad news continued to roll in, as Jeff Francis joined the list of S.S.S. participants who began the season on the D.L. Of our eight starters, only two made appearances in the season's first week. The good news is, both pitched spendidly.
Freddy Garcia took a bit of a hard luck loss in his first outing, as his duel with Scott Baker was decided by a Jason Kubel two-run homer in the seventh inning. Nevertheless, Garcia looked sharp, especially early in the game, as he threw the kitchen sink at the Twins, mixing in all his pitches and throwing in the upper eighties. He did seem to fatigue a bit in the sixth and seventh as he allowed more baserunners, struggled with his command, and suffered a slight dip in velocity. However, at that point in the game, particularly in April when arm strength is still somewhat in question, fatigue is fairly typical for any pitcher. The White Sox should be very encouraged.
On the same day that Garcia had his strong showing against the Twins, Jeremy Bonderman was shutting down the Indians. Bonderman was not allowed as long a leash, as he got pulled after only five innings and 91 pitches, but the results were solid. He gave up only one hit, a Travis Hafner single in the fourth, and a couple of walks (also in the fourth), leading to one run, while he struck out five. The Tigers gave him some early breathing room, as Magglio Ordonez hit a two-run homer in the first and they tacked on two more in the third. Bonderman did touch 94 MPH at times, but more impressive was his new splitter, which he threw frequently and for strikes.
It should be noted that both Bonderman and Garcia, unlike most of the other pitchers in our survey, did make brief appearances at the end of 2009, so they were significantly ahead of everybody else in the rehab process.
Francis's injury apparently had nothing to do with his shoulder and he is expected to join the rotation within a couple of weeks.
Similarly, back stiffness has slowed the progress of Ted Lilly, but his arm has been strong in his extended Spring Training outings and the Cubs expect him to join the rotation before the end of the month.
Brandon Webb, whose return is the most anticipated of any player in this survey, had a cortisone injection on the first of the month. He appears unlikely to rejoin the Diamondbacks before May, at the earliest. He is playing catch, but not throwing from the mound.
Chien-Ming Wang was placed on the 60-Day D.L. to begin the season, meaning he won't be eligible to join the Nats until June. His is throwing bullpen sessions and that timetable seems reasonable thusfar.
Erik Bedard is throwing pain-free bullpen sessions of around 50 pitches. The Mariners are tentatively saying his is "ahead of schedule," which means he'll likely rejoin the rotation before the All-Star Break.
With the Blue Jays off to a hot start thanks largely to the performance of their young starting rotation, which posted five quality starts in six games during the first week, Toronto has no reason to rush McGowan, who dealt with some arm fatigue this spring as he worked his way back from major reconstructive surgery. The Jays haven't announced a timetable, so waiting until the second half may not be unreasonable.
Freddy Garcia took a bit of a hard luck loss in his first outing, as his duel with Scott Baker was decided by a Jason Kubel two-run homer in the seventh inning. Nevertheless, Garcia looked sharp, especially early in the game, as he threw the kitchen sink at the Twins, mixing in all his pitches and throwing in the upper eighties. He did seem to fatigue a bit in the sixth and seventh as he allowed more baserunners, struggled with his command, and suffered a slight dip in velocity. However, at that point in the game, particularly in April when arm strength is still somewhat in question, fatigue is fairly typical for any pitcher. The White Sox should be very encouraged.
On the same day that Garcia had his strong showing against the Twins, Jeremy Bonderman was shutting down the Indians. Bonderman was not allowed as long a leash, as he got pulled after only five innings and 91 pitches, but the results were solid. He gave up only one hit, a Travis Hafner single in the fourth, and a couple of walks (also in the fourth), leading to one run, while he struck out five. The Tigers gave him some early breathing room, as Magglio Ordonez hit a two-run homer in the first and they tacked on two more in the third. Bonderman did touch 94 MPH at times, but more impressive was his new splitter, which he threw frequently and for strikes.
It should be noted that both Bonderman and Garcia, unlike most of the other pitchers in our survey, did make brief appearances at the end of 2009, so they were significantly ahead of everybody else in the rehab process.
Francis's injury apparently had nothing to do with his shoulder and he is expected to join the rotation within a couple of weeks.
Similarly, back stiffness has slowed the progress of Ted Lilly, but his arm has been strong in his extended Spring Training outings and the Cubs expect him to join the rotation before the end of the month.
Brandon Webb, whose return is the most anticipated of any player in this survey, had a cortisone injection on the first of the month. He appears unlikely to rejoin the Diamondbacks before May, at the earliest. He is playing catch, but not throwing from the mound.
Chien-Ming Wang was placed on the 60-Day D.L. to begin the season, meaning he won't be eligible to join the Nats until June. His is throwing bullpen sessions and that timetable seems reasonable thusfar.
Erik Bedard is throwing pain-free bullpen sessions of around 50 pitches. The Mariners are tentatively saying his is "ahead of schedule," which means he'll likely rejoin the rotation before the All-Star Break.
With the Blue Jays off to a hot start thanks largely to the performance of their young starting rotation, which posted five quality starts in six games during the first week, Toronto has no reason to rush McGowan, who dealt with some arm fatigue this spring as he worked his way back from major reconstructive surgery. The Jays haven't announced a timetable, so waiting until the second half may not be unreasonable.
Monday, March 22, 2010
SPH 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey (March)
About a month ago I outlined my intentions to follow the trials and tribulations of eight starting pitchers attempting to return from shoulder surgeries in 2010. We have gotten off to an auspicious start. When Spring Training began, at least six of our eight participants were aiming to make the Opening Day roster. Now, with the regular season about two weeks away, that number is falling fast.
Brandon Webb, the most notable pitcher in the group, complained in early March that he felt "stagnant." Unable to build upon his early progress, he has resigned himself to opening the season on the D.L. and is aiming for a late April return, at the earliest.
Chien-Ming Wang, another former Ace, trying to make a comeback with the Nationals, threw his first bullpen session on Wednesday. While reports were very positive regarding Wang's control and the movement on his sinker, two concerns following his disastrous '09 season, the timetable for his return has been tentatively set for early May. With Stephen Strasburg headed to the minors and Wang joining Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman on the D.L., the Nats are forced to audition guys like Garrett Mock and J. D. Martin for the rotation.
Ted Lilly, whose surgery this offseason was supposed to be "routine," suffered a couple early setbacks and has yet to appear in a preseason game. He threw off the mound for the first time this week and is optimistic he could be ready by the middle of April. The Cubs don't need a fifth starter until April 19th.
Dustin McGowan made a Spring Training start on Friday, but as he surgery was more invasive than Lilly's his rehabilitation process is dramatically longer. Since Toronto is in rebuilding mode and have a number of starting pitchers who they'd like to have a long look at in 2010, they will not rush McGowan, who is certainly one of the most talented in the group. He was capable of throwing in the high 90s prior to the injury, but hadn't thrown a pitch for about eighteen months. He will build up his arm strength during an extended Spring Training, likely followed by a long rehab assignment working his way up through the Jays minor-league system. If all goes well, I'd bet on a June return to Toronto.
Erik Bedard, who the Mariners re-signed with the full knowledge that he was unlikely to return prior to June, has been cleared to throw his first bullpen session this week. Seattle GM, Jack Zduriencik, even speculates that Bedard may be a little ahead of schedule. However, I wouldn't put much stock in any diagnosis when Bedard has yet to throw off a mound. The Marines signed him hoping to get half a season. Hopefully, they'll stick with that timetable for his return.
While most of our roster won't make an active roster this April, there is some good news as well.
The Tigers' Jeremy Bonderman has made four Spring Training appearances and is likely to make the Opening Day rotation. His overall numbers are skewed by a very rough outing in early March, but in his last two outing he's thrown a total of six innings, allowing eight hits and three earned runs, while walking two and striking out four. Bonderman is struggling to regain his control after missing most of the last two season, which is to be expected, but he's throwing the ball in the mid-nineties, an encouraging sign that he will could eventually regain the velocity he featured prior to surgery. The Tigers rotation hasn't been set, but Bonderman would probably make his first start against Cleveland in the Tigers first home series, April 9th through 11th.
Jeff Francis of the Rockies is also on schedule for an early April return. He's thrown nine innings so far this spring and is one schedule to throw 85-95 pitches in his first regular season start, which will likely be the Rockies home opener against San Diego on April 9th.
Finally, Freddy Garcia is on track to make his first start on the 11th against Minnesota. Garcia was able to make nine starts at the end of 2009 and is now more than two year removed from his surgery, so the White Sox haven't been treating the veteran with any kid gloves this spring, never questioning that he would be their #5 starter.
With the possible exception of Garcia, who the White Sox believe will be capable of pitching deep into games, as he did during his tenure with them from 2004 to 2006, most of these pitchers will be on strick pitch counts during the opening months. For Francis and Lilly, who have always made their livings pitching to contact, that shouldn't be a terrible problem. For Bonderman and McGowan, that could be a major adjustment, as both are strikeout artists who tend towards high pitch counts even when they are throwing well.
Brandon Webb, the most notable pitcher in the group, complained in early March that he felt "stagnant." Unable to build upon his early progress, he has resigned himself to opening the season on the D.L. and is aiming for a late April return, at the earliest.
Chien-Ming Wang, another former Ace, trying to make a comeback with the Nationals, threw his first bullpen session on Wednesday. While reports were very positive regarding Wang's control and the movement on his sinker, two concerns following his disastrous '09 season, the timetable for his return has been tentatively set for early May. With Stephen Strasburg headed to the minors and Wang joining Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman on the D.L., the Nats are forced to audition guys like Garrett Mock and J. D. Martin for the rotation.
Ted Lilly, whose surgery this offseason was supposed to be "routine," suffered a couple early setbacks and has yet to appear in a preseason game. He threw off the mound for the first time this week and is optimistic he could be ready by the middle of April. The Cubs don't need a fifth starter until April 19th.
Dustin McGowan made a Spring Training start on Friday, but as he surgery was more invasive than Lilly's his rehabilitation process is dramatically longer. Since Toronto is in rebuilding mode and have a number of starting pitchers who they'd like to have a long look at in 2010, they will not rush McGowan, who is certainly one of the most talented in the group. He was capable of throwing in the high 90s prior to the injury, but hadn't thrown a pitch for about eighteen months. He will build up his arm strength during an extended Spring Training, likely followed by a long rehab assignment working his way up through the Jays minor-league system. If all goes well, I'd bet on a June return to Toronto.
Erik Bedard, who the Mariners re-signed with the full knowledge that he was unlikely to return prior to June, has been cleared to throw his first bullpen session this week. Seattle GM, Jack Zduriencik, even speculates that Bedard may be a little ahead of schedule. However, I wouldn't put much stock in any diagnosis when Bedard has yet to throw off a mound. The Marines signed him hoping to get half a season. Hopefully, they'll stick with that timetable for his return.
While most of our roster won't make an active roster this April, there is some good news as well.
The Tigers' Jeremy Bonderman has made four Spring Training appearances and is likely to make the Opening Day rotation. His overall numbers are skewed by a very rough outing in early March, but in his last two outing he's thrown a total of six innings, allowing eight hits and three earned runs, while walking two and striking out four. Bonderman is struggling to regain his control after missing most of the last two season, which is to be expected, but he's throwing the ball in the mid-nineties, an encouraging sign that he will could eventually regain the velocity he featured prior to surgery. The Tigers rotation hasn't been set, but Bonderman would probably make his first start against Cleveland in the Tigers first home series, April 9th through 11th.
Jeff Francis of the Rockies is also on schedule for an early April return. He's thrown nine innings so far this spring and is one schedule to throw 85-95 pitches in his first regular season start, which will likely be the Rockies home opener against San Diego on April 9th.
Finally, Freddy Garcia is on track to make his first start on the 11th against Minnesota. Garcia was able to make nine starts at the end of 2009 and is now more than two year removed from his surgery, so the White Sox haven't been treating the veteran with any kid gloves this spring, never questioning that he would be their #5 starter.
With the possible exception of Garcia, who the White Sox believe will be capable of pitching deep into games, as he did during his tenure with them from 2004 to 2006, most of these pitchers will be on strick pitch counts during the opening months. For Francis and Lilly, who have always made their livings pitching to contact, that shouldn't be a terrible problem. For Bonderman and McGowan, that could be a major adjustment, as both are strikeout artists who tend towards high pitch counts even when they are throwing well.
Friday, February 26, 2010
The Sporting Hippeaux's 2010 Shoulder Surgery Survey
I've recently been participating in some preseason roundtables over at Inside Pulse Sports. Our discussion of the Arizona Diamondbacks, specifically Brandon Webb, prompted a little debate about the effectivity of shoulder surgeries. The conversations got me thinking, 2010 is going to be an important season for surgeons. Webb is just one of several notable pitchers who are returning to work after a major reconstructive surgery cost them the better part of the 2009 season.
In recent years, even the casual baseball fan has become familiar with "Tommy John surgery," the elbow operation which hundreds of major-leaguers have undergone. The procedure has become so effective that are even cases of pitchers increasing their velocity upon returning. Tim Hudson, Jake Westbrook, and Shaun Marcum are among the Tommy John recoverers who should be ready at the beginning of 2010.
Major shoulder injuries, on the other hand, are viewed as the death knell for pitchers. Randy Johnson's discovery that his rotator cuff was going to require surgery may well have been what prompted his decision to retire. Mark Prior had a shoulder replacement in 2007 and still hasn't made his way back to a big-league mound. Mark Mulder has been trying to make his way back from a 2007 operation, but has managed only a dozen innings (and not good ones, either). Shoulder injuries which required surgery also cut short the relatively promising careers of Matt Clement and Kris Benson. The list is goes on.
There have, however, been a few instances of full recovery. Pedro Martinez had to have his rotator cuff repaired in 2007 and while he struggled in 2008, his return to the mound last season with the Phillies was very successful. Chris Carpenter had his labrum repaired in 2002 and has since been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, winning a Cy Young in 2005. Al Leiter had both Tommy John and shoulder surgery in 1989, at the age of 23, and proceeded to have an excellent career. This experience helps lend a little credence to Leiter's prediction, as an MLB Network analyst, that Webb would be able to make a full recovery because he relies mainly on a sinker and has never needed an overpowering fastball (Leiter had a similar arsenal).
A 2008 study of orthopedic surgeons found that only about a third of professional players were able to achieve their pre-injury level of production following a major shoulder surgery. More than a third not only were unable to regain their former glory, but were forced into retirement. Elbow surgeries faired much better, with slightly more than half of the players returning to full strength or even improving. Sadly, it was still true that 30-40% of players were permanently effected to an extent that they were unable to continue to play. More recent surveys have the specific ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, known as "Tommy John," succeeding at a much higher rate, perhaps as high as 80-90%, though not every player gets a full recovery and the rehabilitation and strengthening process can be very lengthy.
Two years is a long time in terms of 21st-Century medical technology, so perhaps it's time for another look. Eight noteworthy pitchers with be returning from shoulder operations early in 2010. Throughout the season I'll be closely monitoring their progress and providing updates and analysis in hopes of understanding a little more about the long-term effects of this difficult and unpredictable procedure.
Here's our roster:
In recent years, even the casual baseball fan has become familiar with "Tommy John surgery," the elbow operation which hundreds of major-leaguers have undergone. The procedure has become so effective that are even cases of pitchers increasing their velocity upon returning. Tim Hudson, Jake Westbrook, and Shaun Marcum are among the Tommy John recoverers who should be ready at the beginning of 2010.
Major shoulder injuries, on the other hand, are viewed as the death knell for pitchers. Randy Johnson's discovery that his rotator cuff was going to require surgery may well have been what prompted his decision to retire. Mark Prior had a shoulder replacement in 2007 and still hasn't made his way back to a big-league mound. Mark Mulder has been trying to make his way back from a 2007 operation, but has managed only a dozen innings (and not good ones, either). Shoulder injuries which required surgery also cut short the relatively promising careers of Matt Clement and Kris Benson. The list is goes on.
There have, however, been a few instances of full recovery. Pedro Martinez had to have his rotator cuff repaired in 2007 and while he struggled in 2008, his return to the mound last season with the Phillies was very successful. Chris Carpenter had his labrum repaired in 2002 and has since been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, winning a Cy Young in 2005. Al Leiter had both Tommy John and shoulder surgery in 1989, at the age of 23, and proceeded to have an excellent career. This experience helps lend a little credence to Leiter's prediction, as an MLB Network analyst, that Webb would be able to make a full recovery because he relies mainly on a sinker and has never needed an overpowering fastball (Leiter had a similar arsenal).
A 2008 study of orthopedic surgeons found that only about a third of professional players were able to achieve their pre-injury level of production following a major shoulder surgery. More than a third not only were unable to regain their former glory, but were forced into retirement. Elbow surgeries faired much better, with slightly more than half of the players returning to full strength or even improving. Sadly, it was still true that 30-40% of players were permanently effected to an extent that they were unable to continue to play. More recent surveys have the specific ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, known as "Tommy John," succeeding at a much higher rate, perhaps as high as 80-90%, though not every player gets a full recovery and the rehabilitation and strengthening process can be very lengthy.
Two years is a long time in terms of 21st-Century medical technology, so perhaps it's time for another look. Eight noteworthy pitchers with be returning from shoulder operations early in 2010. Throughout the season I'll be closely monitoring their progress and providing updates and analysis in hopes of understanding a little more about the long-term effects of this difficult and unpredictable procedure.
Here's our roster:
Sunday, June 07, 2009
The Stream (Week Ten)
[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]
MON: Josh Outman (OAK) v. Minnesota Twins (Anthony Swarzak)
There are a couple interesting possibilities on this limited schedule start to the new week. Kensin Kawakami (v. PIT) and Randy Johnson (@ FLA) both have fairly favorable matchups, as do both of the young pitchers in this game in Oakland. The Twins definitely sport the stronger lineup, but I'm still going to go with the A's Josh Outman, if for no other reason than he is having one of the most under-appreciated performances of the year. Through nine starts, Outman is 3-0 with a 3.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 42 K in 54 IP. He doesn't get much run support, but pitching at home in the spacious McAffee Stadium he's unlikely to get your week off to a bad start.
TUE: Brad Bergeson (BAL) v. Seattle Mariners (Jason Vargas)
I'm going with another matchup of youngsters. Vargas has actually be pitching better for longer than Bergeson, but Brad has back-to-back strong starts, including seven solid innings against the Mariners in Seattle for his last start. The Orioles feature the much stronger lineup, so I'm going to hope that 23-year-old Bergesen is starting to come into his own. He has a solid minor-league track record, but don't expect a lot of strikeouts. (Note: If you need K's, I'd recommend Jeff Niemann, coming off a shutout with 9 K against Kansas City, but facing tougher competition at home against Jered Weaver and the Angels.)
WED: Gil Meche (KCR) @ Cleveland Indians (Carl Pavano)
The Royals are no good, but Gil Meche is, although he's struggled a bit with his control thusfar in '09, he still has a 4.08 ERA and 2.95 ERA in his last four starts. As bad as the Royals lineup is, the Indians is even worse now that Grady Sizemore, Asdrubel Cabrera, and Travis Hafner are all on the D.L.
THU: Koji Uehara (BAL) v. Seattle Mariners (Ryan Rowland-Smith)
In the battle of two pitchers fresh off the disabled list, I'm going to promote Uehara, who was really hitting his stride before being stalled by a minor injury. Again, I like the match-up. The Mariners are dead last in the majors in scoring and the underrated Orioles are 5th in the majors in scoring at home, a number which could go up as Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold have replaced Gregg Zaun (602 OPS) and Felix Pie (595 OPS).
FRI: Kelvim Escobar (LAA) v. San Diego Padres (Kevin Correia)
I'm going to stick with the theme (largely because there is a lack of quality options) and recommend Escobar's return to the hill in Anaheim. He gets a weak offense in his first start back in over a year. Escobar didn't do great in his last rehab start at AAA, but overall he managed a 2.30 ERA with 13 K and only 3 BB in sixteen innings of minor-league work. The strikeout rate is especially encouraging and he could be a must-add in all leagues by the end of the week.
SAT: Josh Outman (OAK) @ San Francisco Giants (Randy Johson)
I'm going to drive home my point about how good Outman's been by picking him for the second time. Again, he's got a favorable matchup against a weak offense in a pitcher's park, although his opponent, the Big Unit, is likely to make quick work of the A's lefty-lade lineup as well.
SUN: Jeremy Bonderman (DET) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Ross Ohlendorf)
There's not many favorable pairings for Sunday (although that may change in the next six days). As the schedule is currently set, the day is full of Aces: Santana, Carpenter, Peavy, Zambrano, Beckett, Burnett, Billingsley, Buehrle, Lowe, Cain, Johnson, and Cliff Lee. As a result, it is tough to recommend guys like Brian Tallet, J.A. Happ, and Brett Anderson. Brian Bannister, after getting off to a hot start, has had two straight outing allowing seven earned runs or more. Young Jordan Zimmerman has also scuffled and he faces the best offense in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays. Jason Vargas has been superb this season, but I tend to be reluctant to take a guy making his first trip to Coors Field. So...I'm sticking with my them, taking another reclamation project. In Bonderman's case, he will make his first start of the season earlier in the week, so you can ignore this recommendation if things go horribly wrong against the White Sox on Tuesday. But Pittsburgh features a pitcher's park and a mediocre lineup, robbed of its top hitter after last week's trade, so I'll roll the dice.
Swimming Upstream (How did I do last week?)
MON: Joe Blanton (7 IP, W, 3.86/1.00, 7 K)
TUE: Manny Parra (4 IP, L, 22.50/3.25, 5 K)
WED: Randy Johnson (6 IP, W, 0.00/0.67, 2 K)
THU: Gil Meche (6 IP, W, 1.50/1.83, 2 K)
FRI: Doug Davis (6 IP, W, 0.00/1.17, 5 K)
SAT: Anthony Swarzak (DNP)
SUN: Zack Duke (DNP)
Week 9 Totals: 3-1, 29 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 21 K
Four out of five ain't bad. Unfortunately, rainouts and rearranging meant I didn't get a chance to make up for Manny Parra's implosion with a couple more quality starts over the weekend, but still ended up with some respectable totals, especially in the wins department. I'll shy away from Parra for awhile, although I still think he has high-end talent. It was nice to see the Unit wrap up #300 without delay, and against his former team (kind of).
MON: Josh Outman (OAK) v. Minnesota Twins (Anthony Swarzak)
There are a couple interesting possibilities on this limited schedule start to the new week. Kensin Kawakami (v. PIT) and Randy Johnson (@ FLA) both have fairly favorable matchups, as do both of the young pitchers in this game in Oakland. The Twins definitely sport the stronger lineup, but I'm still going to go with the A's Josh Outman, if for no other reason than he is having one of the most under-appreciated performances of the year. Through nine starts, Outman is 3-0 with a 3.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 42 K in 54 IP. He doesn't get much run support, but pitching at home in the spacious McAffee Stadium he's unlikely to get your week off to a bad start.
TUE: Brad Bergeson (BAL) v. Seattle Mariners (Jason Vargas)
I'm going with another matchup of youngsters. Vargas has actually be pitching better for longer than Bergeson, but Brad has back-to-back strong starts, including seven solid innings against the Mariners in Seattle for his last start. The Orioles feature the much stronger lineup, so I'm going to hope that 23-year-old Bergesen is starting to come into his own. He has a solid minor-league track record, but don't expect a lot of strikeouts. (Note: If you need K's, I'd recommend Jeff Niemann, coming off a shutout with 9 K against Kansas City, but facing tougher competition at home against Jered Weaver and the Angels.)
WED: Gil Meche (KCR) @ Cleveland Indians (Carl Pavano)
The Royals are no good, but Gil Meche is, although he's struggled a bit with his control thusfar in '09, he still has a 4.08 ERA and 2.95 ERA in his last four starts. As bad as the Royals lineup is, the Indians is even worse now that Grady Sizemore, Asdrubel Cabrera, and Travis Hafner are all on the D.L.
THU: Koji Uehara (BAL) v. Seattle Mariners (Ryan Rowland-Smith)
In the battle of two pitchers fresh off the disabled list, I'm going to promote Uehara, who was really hitting his stride before being stalled by a minor injury. Again, I like the match-up. The Mariners are dead last in the majors in scoring and the underrated Orioles are 5th in the majors in scoring at home, a number which could go up as Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold have replaced Gregg Zaun (602 OPS) and Felix Pie (595 OPS).
FRI: Kelvim Escobar (LAA) v. San Diego Padres (Kevin Correia)
I'm going to stick with the theme (largely because there is a lack of quality options) and recommend Escobar's return to the hill in Anaheim. He gets a weak offense in his first start back in over a year. Escobar didn't do great in his last rehab start at AAA, but overall he managed a 2.30 ERA with 13 K and only 3 BB in sixteen innings of minor-league work. The strikeout rate is especially encouraging and he could be a must-add in all leagues by the end of the week.
SAT: Josh Outman (OAK) @ San Francisco Giants (Randy Johson)
I'm going to drive home my point about how good Outman's been by picking him for the second time. Again, he's got a favorable matchup against a weak offense in a pitcher's park, although his opponent, the Big Unit, is likely to make quick work of the A's lefty-lade lineup as well.
SUN: Jeremy Bonderman (DET) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Ross Ohlendorf)
There's not many favorable pairings for Sunday (although that may change in the next six days). As the schedule is currently set, the day is full of Aces: Santana, Carpenter, Peavy, Zambrano, Beckett, Burnett, Billingsley, Buehrle, Lowe, Cain, Johnson, and Cliff Lee. As a result, it is tough to recommend guys like Brian Tallet, J.A. Happ, and Brett Anderson. Brian Bannister, after getting off to a hot start, has had two straight outing allowing seven earned runs or more. Young Jordan Zimmerman has also scuffled and he faces the best offense in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays. Jason Vargas has been superb this season, but I tend to be reluctant to take a guy making his first trip to Coors Field. So...I'm sticking with my them, taking another reclamation project. In Bonderman's case, he will make his first start of the season earlier in the week, so you can ignore this recommendation if things go horribly wrong against the White Sox on Tuesday. But Pittsburgh features a pitcher's park and a mediocre lineup, robbed of its top hitter after last week's trade, so I'll roll the dice.
Swimming Upstream (How did I do last week?)
MON: Joe Blanton (7 IP, W, 3.86/1.00, 7 K)
TUE: Manny Parra (4 IP, L, 22.50/3.25, 5 K)
WED: Randy Johnson (6 IP, W, 0.00/0.67, 2 K)
THU: Gil Meche (6 IP, W, 1.50/1.83, 2 K)
FRI: Doug Davis (6 IP, W, 0.00/1.17, 5 K)
SAT: Anthony Swarzak (DNP)
SUN: Zack Duke (DNP)
Week 9 Totals: 3-1, 29 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 21 K
Four out of five ain't bad. Unfortunately, rainouts and rearranging meant I didn't get a chance to make up for Manny Parra's implosion with a couple more quality starts over the weekend, but still ended up with some respectable totals, especially in the wins department. I'll shy away from Parra for awhile, although I still think he has high-end talent. It was nice to see the Unit wrap up #300 without delay, and against his former team (kind of).
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