BBA Ballot: Stan Musial Award

I'm going to have plenty to say about what I consider the most exciting World Series matchup since at least 2005, but there's plenty of time between now and Game One.  So, to prevent myself from being distracted by the BBA Award deadline, which unfortunately falls during the Series, I'm going to go ahead and get in my ballot for the most valuable position player in each league:

American League:

10. Shin-Soo Choo (Indians)
9. Paul Konerko (White Sox)

Let's begin with a couple of players from the AL Central who will probably be largely overlooked.  Konerko had a career year at the age of 34, driving in 111 with 39 bombs, while batting .312 with a career high 977 OPS.  Without his tremendous performance, it's hard to imagine the Sox would've hung with the Twins for as long as they did.  Choo's team, of course, didn't hang with anybody, unless you count the Royals, who barely beat the Indians out for worst team in the division.  Choo, however, hitting in a lineup absent of other threats, continued his ascension towards the top of the AL with his second consecutive 20/20 season.  He hit .300 with a .401 OBP and drove in 90 runs, while playing a very commendable right field.

8. Joe Mauer (Twins)

It may have seemed a disappointing season when compared with his MVP campaign in 2009, but Mauer is still a premium defensive catcher who finished third in the league in hitting (.327) and OBP (.402).  With no Morneau in the second-half, he was the driving force in a lineup that was among the best in baseball, while also guiding a rotation which dramatically outperformed expectations.  Will he be worth $20 Million in 2018?  That remains to be seen, but he certainly was this season.

7. Evan Longoria (Rays)
6. Carl Crawford (Rays)

It was difficult to separate the Rays studs, who actually finished in a tie for third in the AL in WAR (6.9, also tied with Jose Bautista).  Longoria was the RBI man (102) with power (32 HR), while Crawford was the speedy table-setter (110 R, 47 SB), who also posted plenty of extra-base hits (62).  Both played exceptional defense at their positions, hit for high averages, and played basically every game.  Crawford, of course, benefitted from having Longoria batting behind him, while Longoria benefitted from frequently having Crawford on base in front of him, driving pitchers crazy.  This could easily be flip-flopped, but I gave Crawford the slight edge.

5. Adrian Beltre (Red Sox)

The Red Sox played much of their season without Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mike Cameron.  When you lose more than half your Opening Day starting lineup, you're not supposed to win 89 games, particularly in the AL Easy.  The main reason the BoSox stayed in the hunt until the final weeks of the season was Adrian Beltre, who was nothing short of spectacular both offensively and defensively.  He led the AL in doubles, was fourth in the league in hitting, and fifth in OPS.  His 11.8 UZR was easily the best among third-basemen.

4. Robinson Cano (Yankees)

The Yankees postseason lineup featured five players making more money than Cano, but there's no denying who New York's MVP was in 2010, both during the regular season and in October.  Cano, who the Yankees have signed through 2013, has turned into a real bargain.  Not only did he set career highs in HR (29), RBI (109), and OPS (914), while again hitting well above .300, but he also made dramatic strides with his fielding for the second straight season.

3. Jose Bautista (Blue Jays)

Bautista's season was nothing short of remarkable.  The 30-year-old breakout sensation was the first player to break the 50 HR plateau since 2007, and had 15 more bombs than any other player in the American League.  Bautista also showed excellent plate discipline (100 BB/116 K) and versatility, by playing 3B as well as both corner outfield spots.  Many will question his ability to duplicate this type of performance, but all the underlying metrics, including his spectacularly low .233 BABIP, suggest this was not a fluke.

2. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)

Miggy led the league in OBP (.420), OPS+ (179), and RBI (126), among other things, while hitting at the center of a beleaguered lineup, which is why he also led the league in intentional walks (32).  Clearly, his offseason pledge to stay off the sauce paid major dividends for the Tigers and his massive contract has thusfar been warranted.  In fact, one gets the sense that, at 27, Miggy's best years are still in front of him, which is frightening, considering he's gotten MVP votes every year since he entered the league.  If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably be talking about this eight-year stretch as among the best ever to begin a career.

1. Josh Hamilton (Rangers)

Every day is a challenge for Hamilton...outside the lines.  But he proved again this year that when he's healthy - physically and mentally - the game of baseball is actually pretty easy for him.  His 8.0 WAR paced baseball, even though he missed most of the final month of the season.  He won his first batting titles, led the AL in OPS, and played excellent defense in both center and left.  Most importantly, the team he led made their first trip to the postseason in over a decade, won their first playoff series, and has now punched their first ticket to the World Series.  None of that happens without Hamilton.

National League:

10. Andres Torres (Giants)

Certainly, Torres is among the best "feel good" stories of the 2010 season.  However, most people don't realize that he actually finished 7th in the NL in WAR (6.0), ahead of preeminent names like Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun.  Certainly, Torres was good as the Giants leadoff hitter, bring power (67 extra-base hits) and speed (26 SB), but he was outstanding in the outfield, easily leading the league with a 21.2 UZR.  Flanked on both sides by below average fielders, Torres' defensive range, as much as anything, explains why the Giants season really took off after he was made an everyday player.

9. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)

Although it was a disappointing season overall for the Cardinals, Holliday definitely lived up to expectations in his first full season in St. Louis, hitting .312 with 28 HR and 103 RBI.  He provided exactly what the Cardinals were looking for in terms of protecting El Hombre.

8. Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)

As A-Gonz goes, so go the Padres.  He carried his team through much of the season and, at the All-Star Break, was probably neck-and-neck with Pujols and Votto in terms of MVP consideration.  However, he fell off slightly in the second half and slumped dramatically down the stretch (.200 AVG in final 17 games), and the surprising Padres ended up falling short of a playoff berth.  Still, 31 HR, 101 RBI, and a 904 OPS playing at PETCO Park and hitting in the middle of a terribly lineup is very, very impressive.  Someday Gonzo will leave San Diego and when he does, the numbers could be truly terrifying.

7. Jayson Werth (Phillies)

In the past, Werth has always been a great compliment to the cast of MVP candidates at the top of the Philadelphia lineup.  This year, however, J-Roll, Utley, and Howard all spent significant time on the DL, and Werth was the only constant.  He rose to the occasion and helped the Phillies put up the best record in baseball, despite their plague of injuries.

6. Aubrey Huff (Giants)

I made the Huff for MVP case a couple weeks ago.  I'm not going to rehash the details, but, clearly, Huff was the only constant at the heart of the lineup for the eventual pennant-winners and he also showed versatility and was surprisingly efficient in the field.  Not enough to warrant top five consideration, but a very commendable season for the journeyman.

5. Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies)

If Colorado had made the postseason the back of Tulo's historic September (15 HR, 40 RBI, 1120 OPS), he might've cracked the top three.  Tulo, of course, also brings outstanding defensive prowess at a key position, but the fact that he missed a quarter of the season holds him back slightly.

4. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)

Another guy who flashes some major leather, but also missed a substantial amount of time, unfortunately.  If you don't live in D. C., you may not have noticed how good Z-Pack was this year.  Even with his trip to the disabled list, he managed to finish third in the NL in WAR (7.2).

3. Joey Votto (Reds)
2. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
1. Albert Pujols (Cardinals)

This is, of course, the much-publicized battle, as each of these guys seemed like Triple Crown threats at one point or another.  In the end, they all finished top five in the league in nearly all the major categories.  Pujols paced the senior circuit in homers (42) and RBI (118), while CarGo won the batting title (.336) and Votto the OPS crown (1024).  But in none of these categories did one have a tremendous advantage over the others.  You could say that CarGo's numbers are inflated by the Coor Field factor, but, of course, Great American Ballpark isn't exactly a pitchers park.  You could say that Votto's numbers are inflated because he was hitting at the center of the NL's most productive lineup, but the Rockies (#3) and Cardinals (#6) weren't that far behind.  Freakishly, all three of these guys also had double-digit steals, so it was difficult to make an argument for CarGo based on his clearly better speed.  You can make a strong argument for ranking these guys in any order, but here's my rationale.

1.) It ain't that easy being Albert.  Even with Holliday batting behind him, Pujols once again led the NL in intentional passes, for the third year in a row.  While Votto and CarGo are still earning the respect of the league, Pujols frequently gets the Bonds treatment, where opposing managers choose to force somebody else to beat them.  This helps his run totals (he led the league with 115) and OBP (.414), but makes those RBI seem even more exceptional.

2.) For power-hitters, Votto and CarGo don't have extremely high strikeout rates, but Pujols is just flat-out superhuman.  For the eighth consecutive season he walked more than he struck out (103/76).  Again, that's Bonds-esque.

3.) All three of these guys are good defenders, but Pujols is one of the best ever at his position.  And, CarGo gets a little bonus because of his ability to play center, a premium defensive position.  

A-Roid Bankrupted The Rangers, Now Is The Time For Vengeance (ALCS Preview)

Expanding upon the superlative "Narrative Likability" grade I gave the Rangers prior to the ALDS, let's look at three reasons why the Rangers deserve to beat the Yankees:

3.) As I heard Michael Wilbon say on PTI earlier this week, "You can't give this anything but an A+."  He was referring to decision by Josh Hamilton's teammates to forego the champagne in favor of ginger ale following their Game 5 victory over the Rays.  The Rangers have chemistry in spades and this was just the most recent evidence of it.

2.) Dom Perignon v. Schweppes is actually a pretty good metaphor for Yankees v. Rangers.  New York has, famously, the highest payroll in baseball - over $213 Million in 2010, highest in MLB history - while the Rangers have easily the lowest payroll among playoff teams.  In fact, in the American League, only Oakland and Cleveland spent less than Texas this season.  The Rangers combined salaries (for the 30+ players who spent time on the MLB roster this season) come in at less than $65 Million.  A-Rod, C. C. Sabathia, and Derek Jeter will, by themselves, earn $76 Million in 2010.

1.) Just in case you need one more reason to call A-Rod a dick: how about the fact that he was represented on the "creditors committee" during the Rangers bankruptcy hearings earlier this year.  That's right, the man whose record-setting salary helped run John Hicks and his baseball franchise into the ground (and who will make $32 Million from the Yanks in 2010) was still lobbying hard to get $24.9 Million of the $67 Million the Rangers agreed to give him just to get him off their team way back in 2004!  You can bet, if Nolan Ryan were starting in this ALCS, he'd be on the lookout for timely opportunities to play some chin music for the smarmiest superstar.  We'll just have to wait and see how much of the Rangers president has rubbed off on his team.

Okay, now here's three reasons the Rangers can beat the Yankees:

3.) One theory that's been leveled in the wake of the largely misunderstood Moneyball explosion is that while the Three-Outcomes approach (walk, strikeout, homers) works well over the course of the regular season, a more diverse offensive strategy is necessary in the postseason.  In the first round of the ALDS, the Ranger beat a team, the Rays, who were definitely something of a Three-Outcomes team.  They led the league in strikeouts and walks, were sixth in homers, and were second-to-last in batting average.  The Rangers, meanwhile, topped the AL in batting average and were near the bottom in both strikeouts (11th) and walks (8th), while still getting their fair share of power (5th in HR).  I had theorized that the extreme strike-throwing abilities of Cliff Lee, C. J. Wilson, and Colby Lewis might make problems for the Rays, and that was apparently the case, as the Rangers staff managed a nearly 5-to-1 K/BB ratio during the ALDS.  The Yankees are not as drastically reliant on patience and power as the Rays, but they were 2nd in walks, 7th in strikeouts, 2nd in homers, and 7th in average.  In the first round, 7 of the 17 Yankee RBI were created by the long ball and 3 of their 17 runs were created by walks.  If the Rangers cut down on those types of production, they will dramatically improve upon Minnesota's results.

2.)  In the post-PED era, speed kills.  In the first round, New York matched up against a plodding team who ranked 13th in the AL in steals this season.  The Twins could not expose one of New York's most apparent flaws, their inability to hold runners and prevent steals. The Yankee catching tandem led the league in errors and allowed an astounding stolen-base success rate (85.2%).  You can bet the Rangers, who swiped six bags against the Rays, and were 5th in the AL in steals during the regular season, will never stop running on Jorge Posada.

1.) Of course, Cliff Lee famously baffled the Yankees last October, winning both of his World Series starts.  For him to get two in this ALCS, it will require the series to get to seven games.  If it get there, however, the Rangers are in good shape.  Including the postseason, since 2008 (when Lee's "coming-out" began) the lefty is 6-1 against New York, with a 2.31 ERA.  And, he's not the only tough lefty on the Rangers staff.  C. J. Wilson is slated for a pair of starts against Yankee Ace, C. C. Sabathia.  Over their last 15 starts, here's how each fared:

Sabathia: 9-4, 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.85 K/9, 668 OOPS, 106.2 IP
Wilson: 8-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.70 K/9, 618 OOPS, 91 IP

Was Sabathia really a better pitcher?  If the Texas lefties win, three of their four starts, the Rangers likely head to the World Series.  So, much rides on how Wilson pitches tonight.

"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Texas Rangers

If it hasn't been apparent in my treatments of the Twins and the Yankees, let me be clear, Narrative Likability Factor does not portend to statistical objectivity.  If you've been following this blog throughout the season, than you're probably already aware, I'm not impartial at all when it comes to the 2010 Rangers. I've never been a Texas fan before, and I may never be again, but this particular combination of players, coaches, and front office administrators won me over instantaneously, and they will hold my rooting interest for as long as they can stay alive this October.  This is my attempt to convince you that you, too, should throw in your lot with the most soulful team in baseball:

• Performance Impairing Drugs:  Just weeks before the season began, the Rangers had to deal with reports that their manager, Ron Washington, had tested positive for cocaine the previous year.  Washington volunteered to resign, but Jon Daniels, Nolan Ryan, and the rest of the Ranger brass stood behind their skipper and appeared thoroughly nonplussed when asked to comment on the reports.  The underlying message was clear: so long as it didn't affect his ability to do his job, what Ron Washington does on his own time is his business.  This team has improved its record every year since Washington took the reigns and are now headed for their first postseason appearance in over a decade.
• The Painted Man:  Washington is, of course, not the only Ranger to have a very public struggle with drug abuse.  Josh Hamilton nearly lost his career to his addiction.  The '99 #1 pick washed out of professional baseball from 2003 until 2006.  He struggled to make his way back, his every supposed relapse the subject of national speculation, and, with a body ravaged by years of systematic poisoning, he's struggled to stay on the field.  When healthy, however, he has proven himself to be among the superlative talents in the game.  And for somebody with such gifts to have been humbled as Hamilton has, makes him all that much easier to root for.  The Hamilton story may be somewhat old news now, as the climax may still be his performance at the 2008 Home Run Derby at Yankee Stadium, but we can be certain that will change if he can lead the Rangers to their first ever World Series.
• They Could Really Use Those Postseason Gates:  The Rangers entered into this season on the verge of bankruptcy and, after a prolonged court battle, were finally put up for auction just over a month ago.  The good news has been that Nolan Ryan, the team president since 2008 and now minority owner, has been a consistent presence throughout, but it seems safe to say that the Rangers would be the first MLB franchise to go bust and life a trophy in the same season.
• Big Daddy:  Vladimir Guerrero is one of the five best players of his generation and is almost certainly headed for the Hall of Fame.  But like recent Hall of Fame inductee, Andre Dawson, Vlad has spent much of his thirties hampered by knee and back injuries which likely result from years of playing on the rockhard Astroturf in Montreal.  Vladdy was the driving force in the Angels lineup from '04-'07, winning an MVP, leading his team to the playoffs three times, and hitting .327 with an average of 33 HR and 119 RBI every season.  But, in '08 and '09, his production fell off slightly as he was limited by injuries and often forced into the DH role.  The Angels allowed Vlad to walk away this past offseason, to their divisional rival no less, for less money than they gave Hideki Matsui, about half the money they gave Bobby Abreu, and less than a third of what they're paying Torii Hunter.  Guerrero responded by once again hitting like an MVP candidate, with a .301 average, 28 HR, and 111 RBI.  He's headed to the playoffs, his former team is staying home.
• AAAA: Nelson Cruz was traded three times before his 25th birthday.  When he still hadn't become a major-league regular at age 28, many scouts believed he was one of those "AAAA players," able to dominate throughout the minors, but unable to hack it in the Show.  Over the last two seasons, however, Cruz has turned into one of the most awesome power-hitters in the American League.  He has struggled to remain healthy, but when he's in the Rangers lineup he's been good for a .544 SLG, while also hitting at a solid clip (.282) and stealing bases (36 in 44 attempts).
• The Maddux-Ryan Effect: For most of the last decade, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has been considered one of the most homer-friendly environs in the major leagues and, as a result, the Rangers have struggled to attract free agent pitchers and have consistently compiled some of the worst team ERAs in professional baseball history.  That is, until recently.  Since Nolan Ryan joined the front office and Mike Maddux became the Rangers pitching coach, the Rangers have, like the Rockies before them, refused to see their ballpark as a crutch.  Much has been made of the Ryan's very public statements about starting pitcher endurance, but that has been only one minor aspect of the Texas pitching revolution.  Yes, this season the Rangers have three pitchers with 190+ innings for the first time since 1998.  They are also throwing more strikes and inducing more groundballs, thus leading to more quality innings.  The biggest piece of the Maddux-Ryan plan, however, may be conditioning pitchers who are without ego.  The new Ranger Ace, Cliff Lee, is one of the most unflappable, workaday superstars in the game, in part because the game humbled him in spectacular fashion back in 2007, when, after averaging 15 wins and 200 innings for three straight seasons, he found himself mired in such a slump that the Indians optioned him back to the minor leagues and then left him off their postseason roster.  Colby Lewis is a former first-round pick who struggled so mightily in the majors that he spent the last two years pitching in the Japan League.  These are pitchers who've faced adversity before, and they don't flinch when a flyball that would be caught just about anywhere else lands in the sixteenth row of the Arlington bleachers.
• They're Due:  There are thirty MLB franchises.  Only three of them have never been to the World Series, and of those three - Seattle, Texas, & Washington - the Rangers are the oldest, having joined the league in 1961.  Worse yet, the Rangers are the only MLB franchise that has never even advanced as far as their League Championship Series.  They were eliminated in the ALDS in all three postseason appearances ('96, '98, '99).  Sure, teams like the Cubs and Indians have waited longer than the Rangers for a championship, but at least they've got a few dingy old depression-era banners to hang in their rafters.  Texas got nothing.  Nada.  So they're due.  

Foremost because of that final point, the Rangers are loaded with underdog credentials.  They have the lowest payroll of any of the AL playoff teams and the only NL contender that's beneath them is the Padres.  They will probably have the weakest record of any of the AL playoff teams and they're coming out of arguably the weakest division, so they have been largely an afterthought in most of the mainstream media discussions of potential ALCS matchups.  Washington is the only one of the playoff-bound managers in the AL who has no previous postseason experience (Bud Black is the only such manager in the NL).  With the exception of Lee (and Rich Harden, in the unlikely event he makes the roster), the Rangers don't have a single starting pitcher who's experienced the postseason, and Darren Oliver is the only such player in their bullpen.  All this, combined with nagging injuries, especially to Hamilton, Cruz, and Ian Kinsler, could combine to make the Texas squad a bit tight and easy pickings for one of the AL East juggernauts (probably the Rays).  Or, they could be a team of destiny and the first first-time champions since the Angels in 2002.  

Narrative Likability: A+   

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...I've Got No Frickin' Clue Who's Gonna Win the AL West

It's damn sure going to be fun to watch.

You've got the Scioscia-constructed juggernaut, the Los Angeles Angels, who are coming off three consecutive division titles (and five of the last six), but look oddly unfamiliar without Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, and Chone Figgins.

There's the offseason darling, the Seattle Mariners, whose GM seems to be every sportswriter's new man-crush (myself included), even though his highest finish thusfar is third place.  The Mariners have a pair of Aces (King Felix & Cliff Lee), a pair of exceptional leadoff hitters (Ichiro & Chone Figgins), and a pair of designated hitters (Ken Griffey Jr. & Milton Bradley), but it isn't quite clear whether all the pieces will fit nicely together.

There's a redemption song being written in Texas, as Ron Washington and Josh Hamilton try to overcome offseason drug scandals (not the performance-enhancing kind), Vladimir Guerrero tries to prove his career is far from over, and Nolan Ryan and Mike Maddux try to figure out how to get 200 innings out of Rich Harden.

And, finally, there are the sneaky-good Oakland Athletics.  Billy Beane has shunned household names following the Holliday-Giambi-Garciaparra debacle in 2009, but he's got tons of young talent on both side of the ball, and won't hesitate to give anybody and everybody an opportunity.  The players in the mix for the rotation, especially, could make their divisional rivals very, very uncomfortable.

At some point during the last month I've imagined every team in this division as worthy of my support.

Fantastic Thoughts: QuickNotes on Spring Training Injuries

Russell Martin - Los Angeles Dodgers - Catcher

It may sound odd, but I actually think this is good news.  It was clear that Trane was struggling with a lingering injury throughout 2009.  Obviously, he's probably the league's premier "gamer," a Charlie Hustle-type who resists taking even routine days off (he's average 150 games a season over the last three years, easily tops at his position).  As a result, his offensive production has suffered in the second half, even in his best seasons ('07 & '08).  If this injury allows Joe Torre to give him more frequent rest in April and May, I think fantasy owners will see dividends in his overall production.  Russell's definitely getting drafted like a top five catcher, despite his off year in '09.  Hopefully this news will push him down a rung, behind guys like Miguel Montero, Kurt Suzuki, and Mike Napoli.  At that price, I'd draft him with gusto.

Alex Gordon - Kansas City Royals - Third Base

Gordon was a tempting "sleeper" pick at a shallow position prior to breaking his thumb.  Now, he won't find his way onto any of my teams.  Hand injuries have lingering effects on production, even once the player is deemed fully healthy.  The upside for fantasy owners, especially in deep leagues, is that this assures that both Josh Fields and Alberto Callaspo get regular at-bats.  Callaspo was K.C.'s second most productive hitter in '09 (which is, granted, like being the second best show on TNT).  He's got multiple position eligibility and thankfully, in fantasy, the fact that he makes Skip Schumaker look like a natural infielder doesn't effect you.

Josh Hamilton - Texas Rangers - Outfield

Hamilton's shoulder issues are definitely driving down his price in many leagues.  I think you've got to treat him as you would Carlos Beltran, a guy who's likely to miss as much as half of the season, but who could provide elite production for an extended stretch.  I wouldn't be surprised if both Hamilton and Beltran make at least 120 starts.  If either of these guys is available 100 picks into your draft (or for $12-$15 in a standard auction), it's well worth the gamble, just make sure sure you also select a solid sixth outfielder.

Jose Reyes - New York Mets - Shortstop

If you were willing to gamble on Reyes last Friday, no reason to change your mind based on the recent news.  His thyroid condition, whatever it is, is highly unlikely to have any effect on his career, outside costing him a few Spring Training games.  You can only hope that it drives some other owner to caution and provides a small discount.  For my, personally, I wasn't willing to pay the premium on Reyes last week and unless he drops dramatically, I'll still be hesitant.

Open Letter To The Rangers

Dear Nolan & Ron -

Congrats. I love what you've done with the place. You're threatening to post a team ERA under 4.60 for the first time since 2004, which was, coincidently, the last time the Rangers had a winning record. You've still got no shortage of power, but also improved speed and infield defense with the promotion of Elvis Andrus and the conversion of Micheal Young. As of today, you've got the best damn record in the American League. I'm proud of you guys. We all are.

That said, there's a few issues I'd like to address. Don't get me wrong, I admire your skills and trust your judgment. Kudos on the Josh Hamilton trade and the Mark Texeira deal (which netted Andrus [.289, 21 R, leading MLB shortstops in Range Factor, leading AL shortstops in Ultimate Zone Rating], Matt Harrison [3-2, 3.82 ERA, 5.00 K/BB in May], Jarrod Saltalamacchia [respectable platoon catcher], and Neftali Feliz [2-2, 3.93 ERA, 36 K, 34 IP in AAA at age 21]). Letting Milton Bradley walk, it was a tough decision, but the right decision. Ian Kinsler (17th Round, 2003) was a stellar draft pick and getting Nelson Cruz thrown into the Carlos Lee rental was pure genius. Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones have been outstanding inexpensive veteran free agent acquisition.

There's a lot to hang your hats on, but it's only June and there's a lot of baseball left. The Angels managed to stay above .500 even without Lackey, Guerrero, and Santana. They're only five games back. It's time to plug the holes.

First, you're getting a 687 OPS from your first basemen, primarily Chris Davis. That's 200 points below the AL average and 27th in baseball. He's got a lot of pop and a lot of potential, clearly another great draft pick (5th round, 2006), but he needs to re-build his confidence and you can't afford to carry that kind of OPS at a premier position. You've got other options.

Secondly, you need to find a way to keep Josh Hamilton in the lineup. I know, I know, you're off to this great start even though he's missed 15 games and been mediocre when he's been available, but in the long run, he carries the big stick that opposing pitchers fear. Down the stretch, you're going to want visions of Home Run Derby in Yankee Stadium dancing in their heads. Josh is a monstrous talent, but obviously he's a little injury prone. That's what happens when you abuse your body the way he has. Help him out. Don't allow him opportunities to pull his groin diving into the wall in center field. Put him in right. Or at DH. Sure, Blalock is injury-prone too, but he plays a less active position (1B) and is infinitely more replaceable (with Chris Davis, Max Ramirez, and Justin Smoak waiting in the wings).

Tangentially, when did Andruw Jones become a DH? As I recall this is a man who for a long time was spoken of as potentially the greatest center-fielder of all time. I know he's more portly than he used to be, but as recently as 2007 he trailed only Coco Crisp in Ultimate Zone Rating at 22.4. Last season Hamilton was at -17.7. I have a hard time believing that Andruw's decline has been that steep. With a ballpark like Arlington, where every flyball gives your pitcher a coronary, it seems like the graceful glide of Andruw Jones would be a welcome sight, especially if it also helps to protect one of the best hitters in the AL.

Finally, teams do not win pennants with Kevin Millwood as their Ace. Just ask the Braves. As a #2, sure, but not as an Ace. You've got the prospects. You're going to need to be aggressive...but wise!!! Jake Peavy is a flyball pitcher, not right for you. The same goes for Dan Haren. Guys who do make sense for you, who may (or may not) be available include Roy Halladay (53.7 GB% in '08), Aaron Cook (55.9%), Roy Oswalt (50.3%), and Cliff Lee (45.9%). Go get one of them. It'll take the pressure of Millwood and the kids (McCarthy, Harrison, Holland, and Feliz).

Anyway, keep up the good work.

Best of luck,

Hippeaux

Hippeaux endorses...(AL)

It may not be as big of a story as Hillary falling in line behind Obama or Romney endorsing McCain, but I'd like to offer my advice on another upcoming ballot, that for the 2008 All-Star Game in New York. The Break is still a month away, but if you, like me, plan on voting about a hundred times again this year, and not exactly consistently, you'd best be getting started.

One thing to keep in mind: I believe that All-Stars should be based not only on the rather short-term performance of the first ten weeks of 2008, but also on the backstretch of the preceding season, which is why the potentially fluky seasons from the likes of Nate McLouth won't influence my vote...not this year. That said, here's my most common ballot.

American League

1B - Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox (.267 AVG-75 R-16 HR-78 RBI-808 OPS-5 SB)

His dugout tantrums haven't endeared him to Manny, which certainly doesn't earn him any extra credit, but you can't argue with Youk's on-field performance. Since the middle of 2007 he's played 117 games at first, eighteen at third, and two in right field and has made a grand total of three errors. Youkilis has been pretty strong at the plate as well, sporting an 808 OPS during that span.

Youk has climbed in front of Justin Morneau by a pretty significant margin in the early voting, so it seems likely that the fans will get this one right, but Youk's biggest advantage, besides playing for the Red Sox, is the surprisingly weak field of first-baggers in the AL. Since July 12 of last season, only one AL first baseman has more than 22 HR and/or more than 84 RBI, that's Carlos Pena, who racked up most of those totals at the end of last year and is currently on the DL. After Youkilis and Pena, the best options are guys like Jason Giambi and Casey Kotchman.

Runner-Up: Carlos Pena - Tampa Bay Rays (.255-81-37-104-934-1)

2B - Ian Kinsler - Texas Rangers (.310-102-14-64-827-29)

As much as I'd like to see half-a-dozen Red Sox take the field at Yankee Stadium for the All-Star game, I can't endorse a player who's 8th in the AL in OPS among second-baseman in 2008 and 11th taking into account the second half of last season. Dustin Pedroia is a fine player, but he isn't the best the league has to offer, not by a long shot.

In about five hundred at-bats since the middle of last season, Kinsler has racked up 102 runs (1st), 14 homers (4th), and 29 stolen bases (2nd), to go with an 827 OPS (1st). Pedroia in those categories: 90 (2nd), 9 (7th), 12 (4th), and 742 (11th). Kinsler's is one of the most overlooked performances in the majors this past year, which is why he is 300,000 votes back of Pedroia and barely holding off Robinson Cano. This is an underdog who should be on every ballot you cast.

Runner-Up: Brian Roberts - Baltimore Orioles (.262-82-11-54-777-41)

3B - Alex Rodriguez - New York Yankees (.313-93-34-102-1021-21)

Even despite the injury and the modest start (for him) this season, nobody comes close. A-Rod leads all AL players at the hot corner in runs, home runs, RBIs, walks, slugging, and OPS, finishes second in stolen bases and OBP (Chone Figgins) and third in average (Figgins and Mike Lowell).

Runner-Up: Adrian Beltre - Seattle Mariners (.253-76-26-84-763-13)

SS - Micheal Young - Texas Rangers (.326-86-11-76-827-11)

It goes without saying the Derek Jeter is going to take the field in front of his home crowd in mid-July, but Young has been better than him in almost every statistical category, both offensively and defensively, this year especially. Young just wrapped up a 23-game hitting streak during which he hit .339. During the same span Jeter batted .218. This will be Jeter's third consecutive All-Star start. I doubt that I'm the only one hoping it will be his last.

Runner-Up: Derek Jeter - New York Yankees (.291-78-10-56-758-12)

C - Dioner Navarro - Tampa Bay Rays (.310-48-11-56-820-2)

I know this is going to surprise a lot of you, but over the last eleven months Dioner Navarro ranks 2nd among AL Catchers in batting average, RBI, slugging, and OPS, and 3rd in home runs and on-base percentage. Only Jorge Posada is also in the top three in all those categories and his injury may prevent him from catching on his home turf in July. Navarro has been a big part of solidifying the surprising Rays both offensively and defensively, helping to groom and very productive young pitching staff. He deserves recognition, at least as the alternate.

Runner-Up: Joe Mauer - Minnesota Twins (.301-61-5-50-798-2)

OF - Magglio Ordonez - Detroit Tigers (.337-83-24-109-944-2), Manny Ramirez - Boston Red Sox (.310-81-24-91-943-1), Josh Hamilton - Texas Rangers (.316-61-22-88-941-2)

It works out quite well for AL manager, Terry Francona, who has a natural left, center, and right fielder to start the game. Manny and Hamilton are nice sentimental picks who have the numbers to back it up and are currently first and second in the voting. Instead of voting in Ichiro or Vlad during somewhat down seasons merely based on reputation, let's go with the guys who's been hands-down the best outfielder in the AL over the past year. Despite his team's struggles so far this year, Magglio has continued to quietly tear the cover off the ball. Since last year's All-Star Game (when he started in left field), Magglio has more RBIs than any player in the AL. More than A-Rod. More than Big Papi. More than everybody in major league baseball except Ryan Braun and Ryan Howard. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances in the AL since the middle of last season he ranks first in batting average and third in OPS (A-Rod, Papi).

Runners-Up: Milton Bradley - Texas Rangers (.328-77-25-75-1063-7)
Nick Markakis - Baltimore Orioles (.311-85-24-90-912-17)
B. J. Upton - Tampa Bay Rays (.289-90-20-89-856-29)

DH - David Ortiz - Boston Red Sox (.307-97-34-108-1013-2)

Big Papi may not return from the DL in time for the All-Star festivities. Milton Bradley would be the perfect replacement, but unfortunately his name isn't on the ballot for the DH position. The runner up will probably be Jim Thome, who also has respectable numbers for the last eleven months.

Runner-Up: Jim Thome - Chicago White Sox (.248-77-34-85-885-1)

That's right, I've got three Rangers, as well as three Red Sox, on my 2008 AL All-Star ballot. The do, after all, lead all of baseball in runs scored. In addition, I expect Milton Bradley to be among the alternates (you hear me, Francona!). As of right now, all but one of my suggestion are ranked one or two (or among the top six outfielders) at their respective positions, so start punching those chads, stuffing those ballot boxes, and creating those fake email addresses. Let's get these guys to New York in July!

Soul Sleepers

It's spring. The season is a week away. Countless fantasy baseball drafts are taking place everyday. The preparation for those drafts takes many forms, but among the most exciting aspects of it is the prediction of "sleeper" candidates. Players who can be had in the middle or late rounds of the draft, but have the potential to outperform many of the players taken ahead of them. It's easy to highlight players who are coming off of injuries or who struggled last year, there are an abundance of them. Experts dig into their statbooks to find reasons why Jose Vidro will hit for more power in AL West or Ian Snell will win 15 games in Pittsburgh. Casual players usually rely more on their instincts. They pick up sleeper candidates because they play for their favorite team or because they once saw them hit a pair of homers in a Triple-A game. Experience shows that both methods have about the same chance of succeeding. Only a handful of the sleeper candidates talked about incessantly during spring training will have a sizable impact on the season. But that impact can be dramatic. Last year Justin Morneau (AL MVP), Francisco Liriano, and Michael Cuddyer took the Twins to the playoffs and fantasy teams to the top. Today, rather than telling you which sleepers I'm drafting, I'm going to take a look at the most soulful players on my sleeper radar. Players who, were they to succeed, would provide this season with outstanding storylines.

Josh Hamilton - OF - Cincinnati Reds

Anybody who knows anybody who's struggled with addiction, particularly that especially abominable variety brought about by crystal meth, can appreciate what an unbelievable fete it would be for Hamilton to recover from years on the tweak to become an productive professional athlete. Hamilton is a former bonus-baby #1 draft pick whose biggest claim to fame so far is being the subject of an HBO documentary about drug abuse. Despite the aggressive deterioration of the body (and passion for mediocre tattoos) which accompanies meth addiction, he still makes even the most hyper-homophobic sports commentators use phrases like "perfectly sculpted baseball body." He's batting .440 in 50 spring training ABs, playing great defense, and as a Rule 5 pick he must spend the entire season in the majors or be returned to his former team, so he seems destined to be the Reds fifth oufielder. Cincinnati's current starting outfield features Ken Griffey Jr. (43% of games since 2000 spent on DL), Ryan Freel (27% of games in last two seasons spent on DL), and the uber-healthy, but defensively-challenged Adam Dunn. With Dunn likely to share some time with Scott Hatteberg at 1B, it's fairly safe to say Hamilton should get 300-400 ABs and, depending on what he does with them, maybe considerably more. He will have to compete with another talented young Reds outfielder, Chris Denorfia, which could impede his opportunities. But in the age of performance-enhancing drugs, Josh Hamilton has the potential to bring good old-fashioned performance-impairing substances back into the limelight where they belong.

Russell Martin - C - Los Angeles Dodgers

He's the only African American starting catcher in the major leagues. His father is a Canadian street saxophonist. His middle name is Coltrane! What more can you possibly ask for? Oh, yeah, he's a pretty damn good player too. Last year, at age 23, he became only the third rookie catcher in MLB history to get to double digits in home runs and stolen bases. One of them, John Roseboro, perhaps most famous for being the object of a brutal beating by Juan Marichal, never did it again, but was a four-time all-star. The other, Benito Santiago, went on to be a five-time all-star and one of the best catchers of his era, offensively and defensively.

Sammy Sosa - DH - Texas Rangers

His .429 spring batting average, with 4 home runs and 13 RBIs, has put Sosa into the position to start the season as the Rangers everyday DH. Still, it's been three seasons since he put wood - corked or otherwise - on a breaking pitch, and the fastballs he's been pounding haven't exactly been of the John Lackey, Rich Harden, Felix Hernandez variety. But, were Slammin' Sammy, the man born to be a bobblehead, to rediscover the stroke that netted him six consecutive years of 40+ homers for the Cubs, he could really do some damage at Ameriquest Field, a ballpark that has made such luminaries as Rusty Greer, Lee Stevens, Herb Perry, and Gary Matthews Jr. into perennial 20-homer candidates. And, of course, if he joins fellow beefy-headed alleged 'roid-ragers Barry Bonds and Gary Sheffield in climbing the all-time leaderboard, Bud Selig will have even more historic moments to avoid.

Kerry Wood & Mark Prior - P - Chicago Cubs

There is a tradition in Arizona every March. Bushy-tailed beat reporters gather around a dirt mound and wait for one of the Cubs highly talented homegrown pitchers to emerge from the dugout. The long and short of it is, when he sees his shadow, he promptly fall and dislocates his right shoulder and the Cubs are in for eight more months of winter. It's been winter in Chicago for three straight years and - guess what? - just announced this week, Kerry Wood and Mark Prior are going to start 2007 on the disabled list. Just for a few weeks though, Lou Pinella says, just to be safe. It's a familiar song and dance. Will Rich Hill be next? Or Jeff Szmrajx#@r*za, their $8,000,000 bonus-baby from Notre Dame? If I were a successful amateur pitcher, a guaranteed 100% surefire future all-star, one thing is for certain, no amount of Tribune money could get me to sign in Chicago. You might as well lay your arm down in the middle of Michigan Ave., year after year after year.

So what's the story here? Well, it's pretty simple. If Wood becomes a dominant back-of-the-bullpen arm, joining Dempster, Howry, Eyre, and Cotts, and Prior sands the rust off his golden arm and slides into the middle of the rotation, than the Cubs cannot help but be a contender. They have too much offense not to be. In the weakest division in the weaker league, they have the opportunity to perhaps put an end to the last century-old baseball jinx. If that doesn't happen - and, of course, it never does - they might still make the playoffs, but lets put it this way. The St. Louis Cardinals, last year's World Champs, when they put together their postseason roster, they took Aaron Miles (671 OPS, 2 HR), they took Randy Flores (5.62 ERA), they took Tyler Johson (4.95 ERA), and the took Jeff Weaver (8-14, 5.76 ERA), but they left off the Cubs current #4 starter, Jason Marquis. Why? Because he had a 6.02 ERA, nearly as many walks as strikeouts, and led the league in one crucial category: Home Runs Allowed. The only thing about him that's changed: now he gets to face Albert Pujols about a dozen times. I'll take Mark Prior at 80%, Lou. How 'bout you?

Barry Bonds - LF - San Francisco Giants

Despite everything, it is difficult to make a case for the greatest player in the history of the game as a "sleeper." But, in the various drafts I've participated in and read about, Bonds has not once been picked before the 10th round. Considering his second half tear a year ago and his 5 home runs in just 30 spring ABs, that's too low. Not to mention: He's Barry-Fucking-Bonds! If you're not rooting for him to break the record and win another MVP, you're a racist. You hate baseball and America. You know why he's going to hit 30 homers and draw 150 walks? Because he feels like it. I don't care how old he is. His agent, Jeff Moorad, predicted this offseason that Barry wasn't just going to pass Hank Aaron, he was going to hit 1000 homers. I buy it. Remember Michael Jordan. Remember Miles Davis. Remember Frederick Douglass. Barry's that class of pimp. Draft his sweet ass (in the middle rounds). You won't be sorry.

Sure, despite looking sprier this spring than he has since his second divorce, Barry might only play 75% of the Giants games. And they haven't exactly built a powerhouse lineup around him (He's batting between Rich Aurilia and Ray Durham!?!), but San Francisco has the potential to surprise. They've got a solid starting rotation. They've got no shortage of "veteran presence." They've got solid defence up the middle. And it's a wide open division. If the Giants are still in the playoff hunt in August...well, check out Barry's August and September splits from 2002, and last year for that matter. You all remember that home run he hit off Troy Percival in the first game of the World Series. P. I. M. P.