More Power to Mauer

The Twins, as many expected, managed to get Joe Mauer signed to a long-term deal in time for the opening of Target Field.  The eight-year, $184 Million contract is easily the largest ever signed by a catcher, and in terms of average annual value, only A-Rod has made more in a multi-year deal (Roger Clemens famously signed a one-year, $28 Million deal with the Yankees in 2007).

Odd as it may be to say this about a contract this size, Joe Mauer clearly gave the Twins a sizable hometown discount, as many speculated that he could get as much as $25 Million/year on the open market, perhaps for as many as ten years.  If the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets had handed him a ten-year, $250 Million deal in 2011, few would've been surprised.  Mauer clearly genuinely wanted to play for his hometown team throughout the prime of his career and that is certainly commendable.

The questions for the Twins are now twofold.  How much revenue will the new ballpark, combined with this good publicity, generate in 2010 and beyond?  And, can they keep Mauer healthy and productive into his mid-thirties?

The Twins are banking, literally, on a dramatic increase in revenues, as their payroll for this year is already almost $30 Million bigger than it was in 2009, and $23 Million larger than it's ever been in the history of the franchise.  Their primary thumpers, Mauer and Justin Morneau, are under contract until at least 2013 (after which Morneau's contract expires), and the Twins also locked up Scott Baker, Denard Span, and Nick Blackburn through their arbitration years.

The team will still be facing a lot of tough contract decisions in the coming offseasons.  Orlando Hudson, Carl Pavano, Jim Thome, and Jon Rauch each have one-year deals.  Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Nick Punto all have contracts which include sizable options for 2011.  Those could be tough decisions, depending upon how they produce in 2010.  Joe Nathan has a $12.5 Million option for 2012, which is among the several reasons he needed to get Tommy John surgery out of the way now.  Minnesota appears to have no long-term plan at second or third base, so they may need to solidify their infield via the free agent market if they hope to remain competitive.

Unfortunately, the history of mid-market teams and $100 Million contracts does not include a lot of success stories.  A-Rod's first massive contract, signed with the Rangers, pushed their payroll into the stratosphere, but actually cost the team competitively.  In the three year prior to A-Rod's arrival, the Rangers averaged 87 wins a season, in the three years A-Rod was in Texas they averaged 72 wins a season, despite that face that in '02 and '03 the Rangers payroll was almost twice as high as any time before or since.

The Rockies experimented with the hundred-million dollar man via Todd Helton and Mike Hampton.  They have been quite successful in the waning years of the Helton deal, partially because Todd took a significant chunk of deferred money, but it shouldn't go unnoticed that worst years in franchise's history came when the Rockies had some $35 Million/year committed to Helton, Hampton, Denny Neagle, and Larry Walker.  The Hampton deal was an unmitigated disaster, as the Rockies ended up paying $49 Million for 21 wins and a 5.75 ERA before the Braves mercifully took him off their hands.

Toronto's $126 Million deal with Vernon Wells, who I've rated the greatest albatross of all time, may have kept them from retaining Roy Halladay and very well may keep them from having any shot at contention before 2015.  Ken Griffey Jr. ($108 Million) never had a winning season with the Reds.  Carlos Lee ($100 Million) has ushered in the worst era in Astros baseball since the mid-nineties.  The Tigers signed Miguel Cabrera ($152 Million) immediately following their participation in the '06 World Series.  They haven't been back to the playoffs since.

Nine contracts of $100 Million or more have been signed by teams outside of New York, Chicago, and Boston.  Of those nine, only Helton and Albert Pujols have participated in a postseason game with the franchise that made them mega-rich.  Clearly, the Twins have reason to believe Mauer could be more like Pujols than the other eight.  He has done unprecedented things in his first five seasons.  He has also missed a substantial amount of time due to back and knee issues.

There's no true precedent for Joe Mauer, as his batting titles suggest, however, when we look at Hall of Fame catchers, there is a clear trend towards falling production in the mid-thirties. Johnny Bench's best years came in his mid-twenties, after which he declined steadily, with his last truly good season coming at age 32.  The same can be said of Gary Carter.  Mike Piazza was a steady producer from 1993 to 2002, they dropped off dramatically from age 34 forward and was out of baseball entirely four years later.  Pudge Rodriguez peaked at age 27, when he won his MVP, but he didn't become an offensive liability until he was 33.  Yogi Berra faded slowly through his early thirties, but was still a productive hitter when he was 36.  The outlier is Carlton Fisk, who was a steady producer throughout his thirties and even into his forties.    

The Twins clearly took these cases into account when they elected to go for an eight year deal for more money per season, rather than a ten year deal around $200 Million, as many had speculated. Minnesota must assume that they will pay for a year or two of Mauer's decline at the end of the contract, but Mauer should still be a useful player at 34, even if he's no longer the best in the league.  The good news is, unless he is riddled by injuries, the contract should be ended before he becomes a league-average player, so the Twins will have the opportunity to negotiate a more reasonable rate in his final seasons, as the Rockies did with Helton recently.  

Fantastic Thoughts: "Albert Pujols is good. No, really." (First Base Preview)

First base has always been the deepest position in fantasy baseball, but this year's class is exceptional, with a dozen or more players who will go in the first five rounds, even in relatively shallow leagues.  That number gets even bigger if you include guys like Pablo Sandoval and Mark Reynolds, who are also eligible at first in most leagues, but who I don't include here because their primary position is third base (which is much, much shallower). 


There are conflicting views on how this excess of riches should effect your draft strategy.  Some believe that the prevalence of big bats at the position means you should load up on other positions in the early rounds and grab a guy like Paul Konerko or James Loney who might fall deep into the draft or be available for very little money in an auction.  Others would contend that with this many studs, it's even more imperative that you get one or even two of them on your roster.  


Although I think both strategies have validity, I tend more towards the latter, because I think it leaves you will slightly more room for error.  If you pass on a Prince Fielder, a Mark Texeira, or an Adrian Gonzalez, you had better be damn sure that the player you pick in his place is going to put up premium stats, regardless of what position he plays.  First baseman are productive, not only because the position tends to attract burly sluggers, but also because it tends to be slightly less toilsome than most of the other positions on the diamond.  23 first baseman, including every one of my top eighteen, played 130 or more games in 2009.  Compare that to 16 shortstops, 18 third baseman, and 10 catchers, and you get an idea why it's not a bad idea to grab a first-bagger early on.    


1. Albert Pujols (Cardinals)

Much as was the case with Bonds early last decade, for the last several years fantasy pundits have been trying to find a reason why Prince Albert shouldn't be the first player off the board.  After making a serious run at the Triple Crown in 2009, I think he's finally proven the such a reason doesn't exist.  It's hard to predict a duplication of his ridiculous '09 numbers (.327 AVG, 124 R, 47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB, 1101 OPS).  But, at the same time, Pujols is still in the midst of his prime, has never had an "off" year, and, with the signing of Matt Holliday, finally has some lineup protection, so (hazard this thought if you root for another NL Central franchise) there may actually be room for improvement (gulp).

2. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
3. Prince Fielder (Brewers)
4. Ryan Howard (Phillies)
5. Mark Texeira (Yankees)
6. Justin Morneau (Twins)
7. Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
8. Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)

These are the lions.  In each of the mock drafts I've looked at thusfar, although the order might be altered slightly, all of these guys are off the board by the middle of the third round, sometimes earlier.  When choosing your stud, you should think carefully about your leagues rules.  In a standard 5X5 roto league you might bump Howard up a slot because of his propensity for massive HR and RBI totals.  If you league counts OBP or OPS, you might prefer Youkilis over a couple of the guys I've listed in front of him.  If you get negative points for strikeouts, that'll work against Howard and benefit Morneau and A-Gonz.

My favorite from this group is definitely Prince Fielder.  It's primarily because I just love watching him play, which is nothing more than an aesthetic justification, but I'll also point out that at 25, he's the youngest of the group and there is reason to believe that he may still be maturing (same goes for Cabrera, who is 26).  In '09 he dramatically improved his walk rate and the improved discipline not only translated into a better OBP, but also more hits and a higher average.

If there is a weak link, I think it's Mark Texeira.  Tex's hype legitimately corresponds to his contract and the fact that he helped bring a championship to New York in his first year with the club, but those who are predicting even bigger things in 2010 need to temper their expectations.  In some leagues he's getting drafted ahead of Cabrera, Fielder, and Howard.  As good as he is, his numbers don't quite stack up to that company.

5 Things I Learned From the 2007 Series

- Regular season broadcasters really aren't that bad.

I often find myself growing frustrated by the inanities of color commentators like Bob Brenly (Cubs) and Rex Hudler (Angels), but I yearn for them when faced with the prospect of watching several games in a row with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. I often find myself wondering if they even pay any attention to the regular season. I know that they are catering to an audience that may only watch baseball in October, but doesn't that make it all the more important that they provide a rich context for what makes the World Series worth watching. I don't expect anybody to be Vin Scully, but based on their broadcast, it's hard to tell if they do any preparation at all. When they do bring up a tidbit of moderate interest, like Manny Ramirez' average with two strikes or Troy Tulowitzki's likely Rookie of the Year candidacy, we get pounded with it at-bat after at-bat, night after night. Baseball is a game of nuance and almost hypnotic attention of detail. The broadcast should help bring that to life for both the baseball novice and the fanatic. Buck only sounds enthusiastic when he's making an ill-timed plug for one of their sponsors. Fox's broadcasters are neanderthals. If Fox wants to raise World Series ratings, I would start with something that they can change, instead of complaining about the prevalence of land-locked franchises in the playoffs. I was pleasantly surprised by the TBS broadcast team during the Division Series and the NLCS. Maybe that's an indication of a welcome change on the horizon.

- Dice-K needs to make some adjustments...and so do the Red Sox.

I was disappointed that Francona elected to remove Dice-K with one out in the sixth in Game 3. He had yet to give up a run, he had only allowed three hits and three walks, and Boston had a six-run lead! However, I did suffer through several of his late-season starts in which everything appeared to going smoothly before he suddenly got lit-up in the middle innings, so I can imagine what Francona was thinking.

I would argue that Dice-K's rookie year has been a success. Perhaps he has not fully lived up to the phenomenal expectations, but he pitched 200 innings, won 16 games, and was among the league leaders in strikeouts. And, there is no reason to believe that next year won't be even better. He is a smart pitcher and a fearsome competitor. I don't think he would've elected to join the MLB if he didn't think it was going to be a challenge. What is critical, I think, is that the Red Sox also make some changes to accomodate his idiosyncratic style and routines. I'm no saying they should be letting him throw 200 pitch bullpen sessions, but maybe they should let him get up to 120 more often. That is what his arm is used to, after all.

- Something really is wrong with the National League.

See previous post.

- Todd Helton deserves all those Gold Gloves, and another one in 2007.

Much has been made of the Rockies defense, and justifiably so. As the postseason wore on, announcers, particularly Buck and McCarver, became more and more enamored with the play of Colorado shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki. Again, justifiably so. However, what often got overlooked, was that the Rockies record-setting team fielding percentage could not have been achieved without Todd Helton. Sure, Helton has the typical lumbering physique of an aging first basemen. His range is not what it used to be. But, he is extraordinarily agile, his footwork is remarkable, and he has an amazing knack for reeling in wayward throws, whether they're in the dirt, over his head, or well off the bag. I think Tulowitzki and third baseman Garrett Atkins are pretty good glove men and they have extremely strong arms, but neither is particularly accurate. They don't have to be.

- Manny Ramirez is underrated.

It's strange to make such a remark about the fourth highest-paid player in the league, who is the clean-up hitter for one the best publicized teams in all of sports, but it's true. Sure, Manny has his adventures in left field, but he also turns in his fair share of web gems, especially when he's playing at home. His throw to cut down Kenny Lofton in a critical situation during Game 7 of the ALCS is a perfect example. Buck and McCarver don't like that his intentionally knocks off his helmet when he's on the basepaths or lingers to admire his atmospheric home runs. We're never going to confuse him with David Eckstein, but Manny doesn't exactly dog it either. His antics, which I can't help but find endearing for the most part, and the increasingly epic persona of David Ortiz, overshadow the fact that Manny Ramirez may be the best pure hitter in baseball right now. He works the count. He has power to all fields. He walks as often as he strikes out. He murders lefties and righties, even the best in the game. He hits situationally. You never see him swinging for the fences in an RBI situation, even though he often ends up clearing them nonetheless. And, of course, he's money when it counts most. In his four postseasons since joining the Sox, Manny is batting .321 with a 980 OPS and 38 RBIs in 43 games.