Fantastic Thoughts: "Fat closers make happy owners." (Closer Preview)

1. Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Red Sox)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (Mets)
4. Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers)
5. Joe Nathan (Twins)

If you want one of these guys, you'll have to pay, either with one of your first five picks, or $25-$30 (if not more) in an auction.

6. Jose Valverde (Tigers)
7. Francisco Cordero (Reds)
8. Bobby Jenks (White Sox)
9. Trevor Hoffman (Brewers)

I really believe that this is where the value is.  Every year, the pundits become convince that these guys are just waiting to self-destruct.  Too fat.  Too old.  Too wild.  Too cocky.  But last year they combined for 130 saves.  In 2008, it was 138.  173 in '07.  136 in '06.  Many will bet against them in 2010 and maybe they'll finally be right, but me, I'll grab one of the fat boys in the middle rounds and odds are I'll be just fine.

10. Joakim Soria (Royals)
11. Brian Wilson (Giants)
12. Andrew Bailey (Athletics)
13. Huston Street (Rockies)
14. Carlos Marmol (Cubs)

The young guns.  A couple of these guys may jump into the top tier by the end of the year.  Soria would have been there already if injuries hadn't cut into his '09 campaign, thus causing potential owners some anxiety.  The price of youth is inconsistency, so buyer beware, but you'll be entertained watching them pitch.

15. Heath Bell (Padres)
16. Frank Francisco (Rangers)
17. David Aardsma (Mariners)

This trio pitched well in their first year captaining a bullpen and there's no obvious reason why they wouldn't do so again.  However, you should be slightly wary.  Literally hundreds of relievers have posted a 30-save season, but only a few dozen have done it more than once.  The sophomore season is when the wheat gets separated from the chaff when it comes to closing ballgames.

18. Brad Lidge (Phillies)
19. Brian Fuentes (Angels)
20. Billy Wagner (Braves)
21. Mike Gonzalez (Orioles)
22. Rafael Soriano (Rays)
23. Kerry Wood (Indians)
24. Octavio Dotel (Pirates)

These players have all done this job for several years and done it well, but there are a few reasons to be skeptical of them in 2010, to an extent you may not have been in the past.  Brad Lidge was a much-publicized mess last season.  There is no way Charlie Manuel will give him as long a leash if he again struggles out of the gate.  Brian Fuentes led the league in saves, but got bombed down the stretch and in the postseason, something Angels fans won't soon forget.  Wagner is old.  Wood is brittle.  You get the picture.

25. Leo Nunez (Marlins)
26. Ryan Franklin (Cardinals)
27. Matt Capps (Nationals)

This trio managed to win and hold down the closer's role for most or all of 2009, but they did so without dominating results.  They will be pressed from the start in 2010 and may not even survive Spring Training.

28. Juan Gutierrez (D-Backs)
29. Chad Qualls (D-Backs)
30. Jason Frasor (Blue Jays)
31. Brandon Lyon (Astros)
32. Matt Lindstrom (Astros)
33. Scott Downs (Blue Jays)
34. Kevin Gregg (Blue Jays)

The closer role is still TBD in Toronto, Houston, and Arizona.  These guys are likely to be battling it out all through the spring and possibly even into April, so you're unlikely to know for sure that you're even drafting a closer.  Nonetheless, it's worth speculating in the late rounds or with a few dollars, because it wouldn't surprise me at all if every guy on this list ends up with at least 8-10 saves.

35. Fernando Rodney (Angels)
36. J. P. Howell (Rays)
37. Ryan Madsen (Phillies)
38. Jim Johnson (Orioles)
39. J. J. Putz (White Sox)
40. George Sherrill (Dodgers)
41. Mike MacDougal (Marlins)

If you take one of these guys at the end of your draft, expect to be about as popular as a stock-shorter on the floor of the exchange.  By choosing a player from this tier or the one below it, you're essentially saying you have no faith in that team's current closer, either because you think they are going to be ineffective or injured.  The above group features players who have closing experience and have even had moderate success in the venture, and therefore are pretty much guaranteed the first shot at the job if the current closer does falter.

42. Neftali Feliz (Rangers)
43. Daniel Bard (Red Sox)
44. Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain (Yankees)
45. Angel Guzman (Cubs)
46. Drew Storen (Nationals)
47. Chris Perez (Indians)
48. Jason Motte (Cardinals)
49. Jose Ceda (Marlins)
50. Mike Adams (Padres)
51. Matt Thorton (White Sox)
52. Manny Corpas (Rockies)

These are "big" young arms who project as potential future closers.  It wouldn't take a miracle for them to end up doing the job as some point this season.  The first three on the list are especially interesting.  All three have the potential to contribute even as set-up men, because they'll feature good ERAs and WHIPs alongside a ton of strikeouts.  Moreover, as all three should move into either a closer or starter roles at some point in the next year or two, so they've got long-term consequences in keeper leagues.

Redemption Song (Verse II)

I'm not thrilled with the outcome, but it would be hard to be disappointed with last night's game. Both the Yankees and the Angels demonstrated the confidence and tenacity of champions. One couldn't help but feel that, although it was just the second game of the series, there was a whole season riding on the outcome. Of course, the Angels path isn't insurmountable even now, but that fickle mistress, Momentum, is unmistakably partial to wins like these.

When Chone Figgins came up with a man in scoring position in the 11th inning, it seemed almost inevitable, fated that he would break his 0-for-18 drought. But, of course, when A-Rod stepped to the plate in the bottom of the inning, Destiny again reared its ugly head.

One has to wonder: what was Fuentes thinking? The count was 0-2. He had just located a pair of fastballs which seemed to catch A-Rod a little off his guard. Now the closer had at least three opportunities to throw his wicked slurve, his so-called "out pitch," which was working quite well, he proved, during the remainder of the inning. He didn't have to throw it for a strike. He could test it out a bit. Keep it down and away. Three chances to get A-Rod to either chase away (something he'd done, conspicuously, in his previous at bats), or drop an unhittable bender on the outside corner at the knees. Something he'd have no choice but to spit on.

And that wasn't the only option. Fuentes could've elevated the fastball, brought it up to eye level, or run it way inside, try to saw him off. If he bloops one into left field for a single, so be it? If he walks him, so what? Then you match up, lefty vs. lefty (or switch-hitter), against the next five hitters in the Yankees lineup.

What the situation defiantly does not call for is a fastball at the letters; one of those that runs towards A-Rod, looking like a kickball on the outside half of the plate. Not many of the Yankees have opposite-field power. Even Texeira looks like pretty much a dead-pull hitter from either side of the plate. But A-Rod, he can definitely reach the short porch. He can reach any porch, anywhere, if you throw him a meatball like that. He didn't even put that great a swing on that ball, with his wet gloves, rain and all. On a clear night, he probably blasts that pitch over the bullpen. Shame on you, Fuentes. Shame on you.

Vote For Kung Fu Panda

As I mentioned when I wrote up my preview last week, I don't envy Joe Maddon and Charlie Manuel. There are far more deserving candidates this season than there are roster spots for the All-Star game, even when you include the expanded pitching staff and the vote-in guys. The job is made even more difficult by the fact that the fans voted in Dustin Pedroia (whose 761 OPS ranks him as 8th out of the eleven AL second-basemen with 225 or more plate appearances) and Josh Hamilton (who has spent almost the entire first half on the D.L. and didn't play particularly well when he wasn't there).  And the players added a few likable veterans who are having decent seasons, but probably aren't the best choices.  I'm thinking of Michael Young, Orlando Hudson, and Ryan Zimmerman.  

One bit of good news. Charlie Manuel will essentially get two more chances to do right, since Carlos Beltran and Raul Ibanez, both deserving candidates, are unlikely to be healthy enough to participate.

Top 5 Snubs:

1.) Pablo Sandoval - 3B/1B/C - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda isn't just blossoming into a fan-favorite in the bay area, he is undeniably one of the ten or twelve best hitters in the N.L. this season.  He is fourth in the league in batting average (.332) and ninth in OPS (958).  And, among N.L. third-basemen (his primary position this season), he is the cream of the crop.  Here are his stats compared to David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman:

Sandoval - .332/.386/.564, 37 R, 12 HR, 44 RBI, 59.3 RC

Wright - .326/.414/.470, 51 R, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 59.7 RC

Zimmerman - .293/.361/.479, 55 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 53.1 RC

There are two things, however, which make Sandoval a more deserving candidate, beyond his impressive statistics.  First of all, he's been asked to play three different positions (and he hits regardless of where he plays).  Wouldn't that versatility (and that catcher eligibility) be valuable on a roster than is currently carrying four first-baseman and only two catchers?  And, most importantly in my mind, while Zimmerman's surge may have much to do with the addition of Adam Dunn (more on that later) and Wright has, despite the Mets rash of injuries, been surrounded by guys like Carlos Beltran, Gary Sheffield, and Jose Reyes for most of the year, Sandoval really is an island.  The Giants team OPS is 704, 15th in the N.L., compared to 740 for the Mets (6th) and 743 for the Nationals (5th).  Sandoval leads his team in AVG., OPS,  
OBP., SLG., H, 2B, HR, TB, RBI, and BB.  His lineup protection is Bengie Molina (706 OPS) and a carousel of guys like Travis Ishikawa, Andres Torres, and Nate Schierholtz.  The Giants, even with their spectacular pitching, simply would not be contenders if it wasn't for his monster season thusfar.  To me, that screams All-Star.

2.) Jered Weaver - SP - Los Angeles Angels

I'm as happy as anybody to see Tim Wakefield making his first All-Star appearance, but, really, it comes at Weaver's expense. He is by far the best pitcher left off the AL roster. The numbers are good (9-3, 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 95 K, 114 IP), but the other part of the story, as with Sandoval, is that the Angels would be nowhere near first place without him. When the Angels rotation (and roster, generally) was decimated by injuries early in the season, Weaver rose to the occasion and demonstrated the maturity of an Ace, something that many of us have been expected from him for the last couple years. He consistently went deep into games and ended losing streaks.  In seventeen starts Weaver has failed to go six inning only four times (never less than five) and has gone seven or more inning ten times, including three complete games (which ties him for 2nd most in MLB).  He deserves this accolade more than several of the pitchers who were chosen.

3.) Yovani Gallardo & Trevor Hoffman - SP & RP - Milwaukee Brewers

Yes, the Brewers are already represented by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but the fact is, nobody thought the Brewers would be anywhere near contenders this season, not because they didn't believe Prince and the Hebrew Hammer would be doing exactly what they're doing, but because they lost their three most valuable pitchers from last year's Wild Card winner: C. C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and Salomon Torres.  Gallardo (8-5, 2.75 ERA, 114 K, 1.15 WHIP) and Hoffman (18/19 SV, 1.93 ERA) have at least slightly ameliorated the sting of those losses and the Brew Crew is currently one game out of first place.  I know the math wouldn't allow for both of them to make the team.  But, I'll put it this way: Fuck Jason Marquis.

4.) Adam Dunn - OF - Washington Nationals

The Nats are the worst team in baseball, so, there wasn't much chance of them getting two representatives.  So, when Zimmerman was voted in by the players, Dunn was plum out of luck.  Although, somehow, Charlie Manuel decided that Christian Guzman deserved a place on the Final Vote ballot more than Dunn.  Dunn is very quietly having a career year, making many franchises who passed on him over the winter look a little silly.  He's currently on pace for 44 HR and 119 RBI, right in line with his usual totals, but he's also hitting 20 points above his career average.  Zimmerman has already nearly equaled his total output from 2008 and much of his production has to do with the fact that Dunn is hitting behind him.  

5.) Ian Kinsler - 2B - Texas Rangers

Kinsler just missed being elected by the fans, as a Boston bias prompted him to get passed in the final week, and he still has a chance to get in on the Final Vote. And, I would agree that if Maddon could only afford one more second-baseman (besides Pedroia), Aaron Hill was the right choice (Hill was added to the roster by his fellow players). Nonetheless, Kinsler is quite worthy among AL 2B, with 19 HR (2nd), 59 R (2nd), and 51 RBI (2nd) in the first half, as well as 16 SB (2nd) and an 825 OPS (2nd). Adding to his well-known offensive attributes is that fact that he's made significant strides on defense, leading the AL in Range Factor and second to Placido Polanco in Ultimate Zone Rating.

Honorable Mentions: Jermaine Dye - RF - Chicago White Sox, Scott Rolen - 3B - Toronto Blue Jays, Adam Lind - DH - Toronto Blue Jays, Zack Duke - SP - Pittsburgh Pirates, Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks

Top 5 Duds:

1.) Jason Marquis & Tim Wakefield - SP - Colorado Rockies & Boston Red Sox

I pair these two, not because they are anything alike as players or individuals (i.e. I like Wakefield), but because both were added based largely on gaudy win totals which were accumulated due to a significant amount of good fortune.  Both have been solid pitchers, but not All-Star caliber.  Wakefield's 4.30 ERA is good for only 27th in the A.L. (among starting pitchers) and Marquis' 3.61 is 21st in the N.L.  Add to that their abyssmal K/BB rates and their outstanding run support (8.85 R/9 for Wakefield [1st among pitchers in the A.L. with 100 IP], 6.67 R/9 for Marquis [6th in N.L.]) and we get a much more accurate sense of their seasons.   

2.) Hunter Pence - RF - Houston Astros

I don't know what to make of the fact that he was selected by his fellow players.  It is possible that they have seen something that I haven't.  Here's a point of contention:

A .302/.370/.492 - 44 R, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 8 SB

B .295/.344/.464 - 34 R, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 2 SB

C .270/.402/.526 - 43 R, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB

Player A is Hunter Pence.  Player B is Carlos Lee.  And Player C is Lance Berkman.  All three are having very similar seasons, but Lee and Berkman have much more star power and much longer track records of success.  What makes Pence a better choice to represent the Astros? Here's another comparison:

A .302/.370/.492 - 44 R, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 8 SB

B .266/.425/.546 - 38 R, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 0 SB

C .305/.369/.474 - 43 R, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 19 SB

D .263/.364/.491 - 56 R, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 11 SB

Again, A is Pence.  B is Dunn, C is Matt Kemp, and D is Jayson Werth.  It would appear to me that B, C, and D are all at least equal to A, probably superior, especially when you factor in that Kemp and Werth are better defenders.  Dunn is definitely the biggest star in the group, while Werth and Kemp both play for more successful franchises.  I just can't figure out what Pence is doing which commands so much support from his peers.  Perhaps his awkwardness just makes him more memorable.

3.) Michael Young - 3B - Texas Rangers

To begin with, one could argue that there are three guys on his own team - Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Kevin Millwood - who are more deserving. Mort importantly, there are at least two guys at his position who are obviously better choices. It isn't that Young is having a bad year, offensively, it's just that Brandon Inge and Scott Rolen are have demonstrably better seasons both at the plate and in the field, where Young has been especially putrid (-11.3 UZR, last in MLB).

4.) Brian Fuentes - RP - Los Angeles Angels

Maybe it says somewhere in a little black book that the manager's receive that the league leader in saves must be selected. Because, with the exception of that tidbit, which is largely due to the propensity of chances in Anaheim (remember that record-breaking performance by K-Rod last season), Fuentes hasn't been all that great.  He's pitched the fewest inning of any closer who was selected and his ERA (3.38) is more than half-a-run higher than the next All-Star closer (Broxton, 2.72). Certainly not as good as guys like David Aardsma (17/18, 1.41), George Sherrill (18/21, 2.43), and Joakim Soria (13/15, 1.66). And that's just to name some relievers. One might also argue that Fuentes' spot could've been more appropriately used on, say, his teammate, Jered Weaver, who has a significantly better ERA, despite pitching quadruple the innings.

5.) Freddy Sanchez - 2B - Pittsburgh Pirates

Part of his selection was All-Star math.  The Pirates needed to be represented.  But, in my opinion, Zack Duke is having a hell of a season (8-7, 3.28), certainly better than Jason Marquis, probably better than Francisco Cordero as well.  Could've bumped one of them and made room for Mark Reynolds, Pablo Sandoval, or Brandon Phillips.  Again, it isn't that Sanchez has been bad, it is just that he offers very little besides a high average (.316).  He doesn't hit for power or drive in runs, he doesn't steal bases, and he doesn't play particularly strong defense (which is the one quality that Orlando Hudson has over him).  

Dishonorable Mentions: Josh Hamilton - CF - Texas Rangers, Dustin Pedroia - 2B - Boston Red Sox, Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals