Fantastic Thoughts: "Bill Hall is Jose Oquendo with power." (Fantasy Baseball Second Base Preview)

Although the depth at second has improved dramatically in the last few years, it is still a relatively sparse fantasy position.  Shortstop is shallower.  Catcher is by a slim margin.  And third base is close to neck-and-neck.  The sparsity of the infield "skills" positions leads fantasy owners to overpay for the guys at or near the top of the pile.  We'll routinely treat Hanley Ramirez as fantasy royalty, even though he has only one season of 30+ HR, only one season of 100+ RBI, and only two seasons batting above .301.

I, personally, rarely pay premiums at scarce positions.  So, in the middle infield I generally look for "sleepers" and value plays...as well as flexibility.

Especially in deeper leagues, when you take a moderate risk by making Aaron Hill or Neil Walker your primary second-baseman, with similar players at SS and/or 3B, you want to back them up with some low-risk options off the bench, preferably guys who play several positions.  Here's a quick look at some interesting "eligibility" guys for this coming season

Bill Hall - Houston Astros - 2B, 3B, SS, OF

Depending on what your league regulations are, Hall may have as many as four position eligibilities.  He actually played seven different positions for the Red Sox last season, including one appearance at pitcher.  More importantly, he currently looks like an everyday player for his new team.  While he's not going to do your team average any good, he should be good for 20+ homers and double-digit steals over a full season and shouldn't cost much more than $1 bid or a late round flyer.

Sean Rodriguez - Tampa Bay Rays - 2B, 3B, SS, OF

Again, you league's eligibility requirements will determine what he gets (5+ games at all the positions listed above), but he'll definitely qualify at 2B and OF.  Rodriguez is only 25-years-old, slated for pretty much full-time at-bats in a loaded lineup, and had a AAA slugging percentage of .620 in 750 plate appearances.  He's got premium power, decent speed (13 SB in '10), and shouldn't decimate your average (.298 at AAA).  Unlike Hall, he won't come free, especially in deep leagues, but might be worth chasing nonetheless.

Jed Lowrie - Boston Red Sox - 1B, 2B, SS

It wasn't that long ago that the Red Sox considered Lowrie their top prospect, ahead of guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and even Jon Lester.  In 2010, he finally showed a flicker of that promise at the major-league level.  From July 26 to the end of the season he got relatively regular playing time and hit .294 with a 936 OPS.  He closed off the year by hitting a pair of homers against the Yankees, pushing them into second place (and the Wild Card) behind the Rays.  It was a small victory, but one that surely didn't go unnoticed in Red Sox nation.  There's no clear place for Lowrie in Boston, but Marco Scutaro may be on a short leash and, of course, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia don't haven't the greatest track records for staying healthy (nor does Lowrie).  He's worth stashing in deep leagues and worth following in shallower ones.  I expect him to be a starter by August.  

Now, on to the rankings...

1. Robinson Cano, NYY
2. Chase Utley, PHI
3. Rickie Weeks, MIL
4. Ian Kinsler, TEX
5. Dan Uggla, ATL
6. Brandon Phillips, CIN
7. Dustin Pedroia, BOS

It's actually a pretty crowded field at the top of the second-base rankings.  Following an MVP-caliber 2010 season, which coincided with injury-plagued campaigns from Utley and Pedroia, Cano is the clear #1 option at the position, but don't fret if you miss out.  Utley had a excellent stretch run at the end of last year and should be primed to bounce back in 2011, at a slightly reduced price.  There's also little reason to believe Pedroia and Kinsler aren't capable of returning to form, but be aware, in terms of 5X5 fantasy production, Brandon Phillips is very nearly their equal and comes without the injury risk, having played 140+ games in each of the last five seasons.

8. Kelly Johnson, ARZ
9. Ben Zobrist, TBR
10. Aaron Hill, TOR
11. Martin Prado, ATL
12. Neil Walker, PIT

This group can be summarized by the phrase "one good year."  For Johnson, Prado, and Walker it was 2010.  For Zobrist and Hill, 2009.  All of the players from this group have surprisingly power potential, especially for the middle-infield, but otherwise their strengths vary.  Zobrist and Johnson can get you stolen bases.  Prado hits for a high average.  Walker is young enough that there may still be room for development.  Unfortunately, there's not a lot of safety here and it will probably be at least another year before we can confidently say which of them was a fluke.

13. Brian Roberts, BAL
14. Chone Figgins, SEA

Speedsters a renowned for their expeditious declines.  Roberts and Figgins, both 33-years-old, are coming off disappointing seasons which could signal that descent has begun.  On the other hand, in limited opportunity following his return from the D.L., Roberts still showed good speed (10 for 12 in SB attempts), though absent his usual power (.405 SLG).  Figgins managed to pile up the steals (42), even though his season was in nearly every other capacity the worst of his career.  Advantage goes to Roberts primarily because he'll be hitting atop a revitalized lineup, whereas Figgins plays in the offensive wasteland of Seattle.  Both are heavy in the risk department, but they should come much cheaper than they have in the past and therefore might be worth the gamble.

15. Gordon Beckham, CWS
16. Howie Kendrick, LAA
17. Mike Aviles, KCR
18. Sean Rodriguez, TBR
19. Eric Young Jr., COL
20. Danny Espinosa, WAS
21. Ryan Raburn, DET

The next class of potential breakout second-baseman is led by two highly-touted prospects who, as yet, haven't put it all together at the major-league level.  Beckham got off to a horrid start in 2010, but had two strong months in July and August (.332 AVG, 941 OPS) before his season was cut short by injury.  Rodriguez and Young won't get as much attention, because they don't offer a divers toolset, but Young has premium speed and Rodriguez premium power, so you could do worse in deep leagues.  The diamond in the rough here is Mike Aviles, who could be this year's version of Martin Prado.  In most leagues he'll be eligible at three infield positions (2B, 3B, SS) and has the ability to hit over .300 with 10-15 HR and 20+ steals, if he can hold down an everyday job.  Wilson Betemit and Mike Moustakas are waiting in the wings, so Aviles needs to get off to a hot start.

22. Orlando Hudson, SDP
23. Freddy Sanchez, SFG
24. Omar Infante, FLA
25. Juan Uribe, LAD
26. Ty Wigginton, COL
27. Bill Hall, HOU
28. Mark Ellis, OAK
29. Carlos Guillen, DET

In most league you won't want anything to do with these guys, but in deep leagues, one has to plow the depths of the middle-infield ranks.  Infante had a "breakout" season in 2010 which prompted his selection to the All-Star game, but his excellent average (.321) didn't bring much along with it (65 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 7 SB) and I have serious doubts there is any upside at age 29.  Wigginton, who has legit power, could benefit from his move to Colorado, except that there is no clear place for him to play.  If a Colorado infielder suffers an injury, he could jump up the list.

30. Dustin Ackley, SEA
31. Daniel Murphy, NYM
32. Luis Valbuena, CLE
33. Alexi Casilla, MIN
34. Jeff Baker, CHC

This is the deep sleeper contingent.  Seattle seems prepared to hand a full-time gig to their top prospect following his dynamite Arizona Fall League performance, but his full season totals from AA and AAA were less than thrilling (775 OPS).  I'm not convinced he's ready, but if you can get him on the cheap there is obviously tons of upside.  The Mets Daniel Murphy experiment is probably destined for failure.  It is the Mets after all.  But if Murphy does prove himself able to handle the position switch, he has the offensive talent to be a top 15 fantasy second-baseman.

Fantastic Thoughts: NOW! NOW! NOW!

I was watching a Red Sox game yesterday evening in which I heard Jerry Remy, in all seriousness, utter the words "small sample size," which gives you a sense of just how deeply the vocabulary of sabermetrics has infected the Fenway faithful.  Rem-dog is right, it's still too early in the season to start making assumptions, especially, I would argue, about players with lengthy track records which dispute their current statlines.  However, from a fantasy baseball perspective, if you wait until the end of April to start making roster moves, you may miss out on this season's versions of Ben Zobrist, Joel Pineiro, and Nelson Cruz.

So, who are the flukes and who are the first-time All-Stars?  Here's what I'm buying:

Jeremy Hermida - OF - Boston Red Sox

The Marlins waited five years for their former #1 pick to break out, but his best season was '07 when he hit 18 HR with a solid 870 OPS.  He backtracked over the next two seasons, struggled with injuries, and was lapped by Cody Ross, Chris Coghlan, and Cameron Maybin.  Last November, the Marlins traded him the Red Sox for a pair of minor-league relievers.  Hermida looked destined to become a utility-man, but with Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron on the D.L., he has chanced into regular at-bats and, at the magic age of 27, in a much friendlier ballpark, with a friendlier lineup around him, there's no reason the long-awaited breakout won't happen in Boston.  Hermida already has 3 HR and 9 RBI in just eleven games.  His average may not be particularly pretty, but the power is legit and everything seems to be working in his favor.

Colby Lewis - SP - Texas Rangers

Lewis didn't even reach my radar until late in the spring, when his place in the Rangers rotation was confirmed.  Sure, his record in Japan was very impressive, but who really know how to convert those numbers.  For every Ichiro there is a Kaz Matsui, for every Dice-K an Irabu.  I took Lewis as a flier in a couple deep leagues merely because Ron Washington and Mike Maddux trusted him enough to sent Derek Holland and Brandon McCarthy to AAA.  So far, so good.  In three starts, Lewis has a 2.60 ERA and is striking out more than a batter an inning.  Granted, his competition thusfar has been Seattle (10th in the AL in runs), Cleveland (13th), and a struggling Boston lineup (11th), but I'm ready to recommend him in all formats, especially since his next five starts come against Detroit, Seattle, Oakland, Kansas City, and Toronto.

Martin Prado - 2B - Atlanta Braves

Prado's breakout actually began last season when he hit .310 after being handed a full-time starting gig around the beginning of June.  Any fears that he may have been playing above his head have been soothed by a .440 average in the opening weeks of 2010.  The main worry, from a fantasy perspective, is that Prado's average could be a little "hollow," as he didn't show much power or speed in the minors.  His eleven homers last year were his most ever at any level, by a long shot.  However, by showing good plate discipline and now hitting atop the Braves lineup, Prado is a good bet for 100+ runs and an average well above .300.    

Offseason Prospectus #26: The Atlanta Braves

I've got very little love for the Atlanta Braves.  I'll never be able to get past the abusive relationship they had with the early-'90s Pirates.  They are a team from the Deep South who didn't have the good sense not to employ an unabashedly racist reliever (John Rocker).  And, let's face it, the face of their franchise, Chipper Jones, falls somewhere between REO Speedwagon and offal on the likability scale.

That said, if this is in fact Bobby Cox's final season at the helm, I wouldn't be totally disappointed if the Braves made a somewhat unexpected playoff run on his behalf, with the caveat that it must end with the opposition beating them with a walkoff single by a backup infielder in Game 7 of the NLCS.

The Braves have positioned themselves to contend, if not for the AL East title, at least for the Wild Card.  It's hard to believe, but it's actually been four years since Atlanta finished even as higher than third place.  Granted, this stretch was preceded by fourteen consecutive division titles, so I don't feel terribly sorry for them, but it would befit Cox to go out on a high note.

Atlanta has a deep rotation, a solid retrofitted bullpen, and, assuming Jones and Troy Glaus stay healthy, just enough offense to be dangerous.