Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux 2011 "Sleeper" Team

As you may have noticed, things have been a little busy in the land of Hippeaux.  I apologize for the fact that, at the time of year when many are itching for preseason predictions and analysis, I've been busy with my day job.  Over the weekend, I'll get out the "ouija board" and continue my series on Tout Wars.  I will obviously have an unfair advantage in my predictions, having already watched a game or two of Milwaukee v. Cincinnati.  In the meantime, here's a lineup of guys I'm "touting" for breakout campaigns in 2011.  I know it's belated, but there are still plenty of drafts on the horizon.

Russell Martin - C - New York Yankees

What's new, right?  Martin's always been among my favorites and it's going to pain me dearly to see him in pinstripes, but as a fantasy owner, this is a dream come true.  For one thing, Martin's popularity has absolutely tanked.  After his first three seasons, when Martin was averaging 14 HR and 16 SB a year, we probably got a little giddy, ranking him alongside the McCann's and V-Mart's of the world.  Now, coming off two seasons in which he was dogged by injuries, buried in a mediocre lineup, and discouraged by an unsupportive organization, he's been more or less forgotten (he's the 17th most popular catcher in ESPN standard leagues).  The argument for Martin goes like this:

1.) He's a high energy player and excellent defender who Joe Girardi is going to fall in love with.  So long as his hip is fully healthy, I think he's a synch to start 140 games.

2.) Even in his worst years, he's shown good plate discipline.  He's going to get on base.  Batting at the bottom of New York's lineup, that should mean solid runs and probably solid RBI as well (for his position).

3.) He's the only catcher in fantasy baseball who gives you any steals (double-digits in 4 out of 5 seasons and was on pace for that again last year before his injury).

4.) He's still just 28.

(P.S. In BLOGZKRIEG! I insured myself by adding Jesus Montero for a surprisingly cheap price.  I recommend this course of action in deep leagues.  If Martin goes down or fails to perform, you can bet Montero will be his replacement, either behind the plate or at DH, with Posada moving as well.)

Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansas City Royals

I've been promoting the Kila Monster for three seasons now, ever since he posted a 1085 OPS and a 104/67 BB/K ratio in the high minors in 2008.  The Royals, of course, would seem to have botched his development, flipping him back and forth between leagues and never giving him a prolonged look in the majors.  This year, he has until July (by which time Super Two eligibility will have expired and K.C. might be tempted to promote Eric Hosmer).  Ka'aihue showed how serious he was about taking advantage of his opportunity by hitting .397 with a 1307 OPS this spring.  Obviously, we can't read a ton into those numbers, but I think it suggests that he's chomping at the bit to show off his skills for teams who might free him from baseball purgatory.  Don't reach, but as a cheap corner infielder or utilityman, Kila has a lot of upside and not that much downside.

Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers

You're going to be reading quite a bit about the Brewers in these pages in the coming months, just as you did about the Rangers in 2010.  Hopefully, I can spur them to the same sort of luck.  Many will question Weeks ability to duplicate what he did last year (.269 AVG-112 R-29 HR-83 RBI-11 SB-830 OPS), but I think that's just the beginning.  It feels like Weeks has been around forever, but that's just because he was such a high profile prospect and got promoted at such a young age.  He's still just 28, with plenty of room for improvement, if he can just stay on the field.  Oh...you say...well, isn't that his problem?  Let me just name a few guys getting drafted ahead of him: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia.  You want a bastion of health at this thin position?  Get in line.

Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda's incredible offseason health regimen has turned him into a preseason favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.  In BBA BLOGZKRIEG! I had to go all the way to $19 to roster him, which I was more than willing to do.  Let's face it, you can't hit .330 with a 943 OPS over a full season at the age of 22 as a "fluke."  It just doesn't happen.  His belly has disappeared.  His skills haven't.

Mike Aviles - 2B, 3B, SS - Kansas City Royals

Aviles has a strong chance of being this season's Martin Prado.  Don't overestimate his value, but don't ignore the fact that he's hit .298 over three big-league seasons, despite hitting only .183 in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign.  Aviles is a legitimate .300+ hitter who throws in double-digit power and double-digit speed and, perhaps most importantly, will qualify at three shallow infield positions in most leagues.  Like Prado and Placido Polanco before him, he's great insurance against injury and batting average protection.  Buy with confidence.

Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers

There are different breeds of "sleepers."  Mike Aviles and Ryan Braun are definitely not of the same species.  That said, every year there is a premier player (or two) who consistently fall to far.  Last year's examples were Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton.  This year I think that distinction belongs to the two Brewers sluggers, Braun and Fielder.  A popular new crop of young, high-upside outfielders, led by Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, and Mike Stanton have seduced fantasy leaguers into believing there is a panoply of five-tool options in the outfield.  When you have to fill five slots, as is the case in most leagues, that's simply not the case.  If Braun is still around at the end of the first round or goes for less than $40 in a standard mixed league auction, you'll regret letting him go to somebody else.  This is a guys who's 162-game averages are .307 AVG-111 R-36 HR-118 RBI-18 SB-918 OPS.  Yes, please! Oh, and he just turned 27.

Delmon Young - LF - Minnesota Twins

For some reason, people hate Delmon Young.  I don't know exactly why it is.  Maybe it dates back to that minor-league fracas he got himself into.  Maybe it's because he often looks a little lackadaisical, even a little confused, in the spirit of J. D. Drew and B. J. Upton.  To me, he seems like a quiet unassuming kid.  I emphasize kid because last season, prior to which a whole lot of pundits were ready to declare the former #1 pick a bust, Delmon Young was 24-years-old.  Remember what you were doing when you were 24?  Who's the bigger "bust"?  Delmon proceeded to hit .298 and drive in 112 runs.  Now, I'm the first to admit, he got a lot of RBI chances.  I wouldn't expect him to match that total.  But I see no reason why he can't improve in every other category, as he continues to cut down on strikeouts and improve his power and discipline.  I'll guarantee you this, he's better than the 25th best outfielder in fantasy baseball.

Jay Bruce - RF - Cincinnati Reds

I know, I know: "BANDWAGON!!!"  Sometimes the conventional wisdom is simply wisdom.  Bruce has made strides in each of his first three seasons.  Everybody knows he's a industrial-strength toolbox.  Last year, he started to lay off pitches that even the catcher couldn't reach.  And, really, that's about all he can't hit.  Second half splits in 2010: .306 AVG-30 R-15 HR-34 RBI-0 SB-951 OPS.  Don't be the fool who takes him ahead of Ichiro or Shin-Soo Choo, but don't be the idiot who believes he'd be better off with Corey Hart.

The following pitchers I covered in the most recent edition of "21st Century Cys," so I won't belabor the point with more than a few additional words:

Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins

Say hello to the 2011 AL Cy Young.

Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Could be the Ubaldo of 2011, which doesn't mean he won't suffer from a second-half slide.

Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona D-Backs

Yankees fans will be cursing the trade that sent Kennedy to Arizona about every fifth day.

Here are the underrated veterans:

Carlos Zambrano - SP - Chicago Cubs

No more Lou Pinella.  No more Derrek Lee.  No more Carlos Silva.  No more Milton Bradley.  Perhaps Big Z will get pissed off be somebody else, but in the second half of 2010, he showed what he could do with a little anger management: 8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 K, 74 IP.  I'm obviously hoping for more of the same in 2011.  As an added bonus, Z's meltdown from a season ago has made him eligible as a relief pitcher in many leagues.  Depending upon your scoring system, that could dramatically increase his value.

Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians

In 2007, Carmona was the best pitcher on a staff that also featured C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee.  The following two seasons, things went terribly wrong.  Last year, Carmona recaptured some of that former glory and earned himself an All-Star bid (the truly pathetic quality of his teammates didn't hurt).  Carmona won't pile up strikeouts, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has the potential to pitch deep into games, giving you significant aid in ERA and even WHIP.  Victories may be few and far between in Cleveland, but even with some bad luck, he got 13 in 2010.  This is a very strong pitcher who is almost always available in the late stages of your auction or draft.

21st Century Cys (2011 Edition)

Last season about this time, in response to "out of nowhere" Cy Young award-winners like Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee, I offered a method for identifying the next set of pitchers who could climb suddenly to the elite Ace status.  You can read the original for more on my rationale, but the basic premise is to identify pitchers who haven't garnered Cy Young attention in previous seasons, but are in their mid-twenties, have at one time or another been considered blue-chip prospects, and are coming off respectable, but not dominant, seasons.  This was the 2010 class:

Chad Billingsley - Los Angeles Dodgers (25-years-old in '10, 1st-Rnd. Pick in '03)
12-11, 3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 171 K, 192 IP, 4.6 WAR (+1.4), '10 All-Star

John Danks - Chicago White Sox (25, 1st-Rnd. '03)
15-11, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 162 K, 213 IP, 4.3 WAR (+1.4)

Yovani Gallardo - Milwaukee Brewers (24, Baseball America #16 Prospect in '07)
14-7, 3.84 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 200 K, 185 IP, 4.6 WAR (+1.9)

Edwin Jackson - Chicago White Sox (26, BA #4 '04)
10-12, 4.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 181 K, 209 IP, 3.8 WAR (+0.3), No-Hitter

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies (25, Entered League at 22)
19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP, 6.3 WAR (+0.6), '10 All-Star Starter, #3 NL Cy Young Voting, #23 NL MVP Voting, No-Hitter

John Lannan, Washington Nationals (25, Entered League at 22)
8-8, 4.65 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 71 K, 143 IP, 1.2 WAR (-0.3)

Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (27, Entered League at 23)
14-9, 4.51 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 147 K, 158 IP, 2.5 WAR (-1.8)

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (27, 1st-Rnd. '04)
13-12, 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 233 K, 224 IP, 5.9 WAR (+2.0)

As you can see, although none won the Cy Young award (both leagues chose a player who was a perennial favorite), two pitchers, Jimenez and Weaver, were legitimate contenders, six of our eight pitchers improved upon their '09 campaigns (according to WAR), and five of the eight set career highs in WAR.  In total, the "21st Century Cy" class of 2010 combined for a 5.5 win improvement.  The only two backtrackers, Lannan and Nolasco, were derailed mainly by early season slumps.  After a month-long demotion, Lannan actually bounced back to go 6-3 with a 3.42 ERA in the second half.   Nolasco had his season ended early, but not before he put together a solid sixteen start stretch in which he went 10-5 with a 4.05 ERA and 9.7 K/9.

I used the "21st Century Cy" designation as part of my BLOGZKRIEG! draft stategy, landing Jimenez, Weaver, Gallardo, Danks, Jackson, and Lannan, and they were a big part of my eventual championship. Was this merely good fortune?  Well, there's only one way to find out.  Using the same formula as last season, I've identified a new class of "21st Century Cys."  It's signficantly larger than the 2010 class, indicating the dearth of good young pitching in the major leagues right now.  Three players from last season's class - Billingsley, Danks, and Gallardo - still qualify based upon all my criteria, but I won't bother profiling them again.  Here are the other candidates:

A few potential All-Stars who might surprise you...

There are certain to be a few first-time All-Stars this season.  Ubaldo Jimenez, who has to be the current favorite to start the game for the NL, will certainly get his first selection thanks to a couple of history-making months.  Rookie outfielder, Jason Heyward, is currently among the leading vote-getters in the NL outfield, and should be destined for selection even if he isn't voted in by the fans.  Also much-lauded is the AL co-leader in homeruns, Jose Bautista.

There are, naturally, also a few superb performers who have been largely overlooked by the media.  I offer a handful of unsung heroes who certainly won't be starters and in some cases would be borderline selections, but who definitely deserved consideration and increased publicity based on what they're doing in 2010.

Jose Valverde - RP - Detroit Tigers

Several balked at the size of the contract he received during the offseason, but thusfar he has made Dave Dombrowski look like a genius, saving 16 games in 17 opportunities, and compiling a ridiculously low 0.59 ERA through his first thirty appearances.  Those supposedly much tougher AL lineups have managed to hit just .105 off Valverde, who had spent his previous seven seasons in the National League.    He got roughed up in his second appearance of the season, but has allowed one lonely run since.  Despite being one of the best closers in baseball during the last four season, Valverde has just one previous All-Star selection, in 2007, when he led the NL in saves with 47.

Aubry Huff - 1B/OF - San Francisco Giants


Many fantasy owners gave up on Huff after a shabby April.  Since then, he has been among the top hitters in the National League, batting .342 with 9 HR, 28 RBI, and 1052 OPS in his last forty-some games.  Considering how bad the rest of the Giants have been offensively, Huff has to be given a great deal of the credit for keeping them in the thick of the NL West race.  He move to the outfield certainly helps his chance of selection, as there is a logjam at first base.


Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks

I know, I know...I've beat this horse to death, but Ian Kennedy has been damn good this season, especially in the last two months.  His record is merely 3-5, largely because of very modest run support.  Kennedy's shot at selection increases because of his team.  The D-Back's top two players, Justin Upton and Dan Haren, are both having sup-par first halves, and other relatively big-name candidates, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds, haven't been spectacular either.  Kennedy's major competition as Arizona's rep comes from resurgent hitters, Kelly Johnson and Chris Young.  His disadvantage is that so many NL starting pitchers are having strong seasons that his avenue to selection may be much more difficult than that of his position-playing teammates.

Marlon Byrd - CF - Chicago Cubs

The Cubs stink.  They stink in no small part because their biggest salaried players - Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, etc. - are all simultaneously having career-worst seasons.  Marlon Byrd, however, the 32-year-old outfielder who was supposed to regress following a breakout season in Texas, has actually gotten better...way better.  All that stands between him an his first All-Star appearance is the equally inexplicable Carlos Silva.

Rafael Furcal - SS - Los Angeles Dodgers

Furcal is very quietly having the season many expected him to have last year.  He has again missed some time, but in 167 at-bats is hiting .305 with a .354 OBP, 9 SB, and, of course, stellar defense.  He has been the Dodgers catalyst at the top of the lineup.  With Troy Tulowitzki and Jimmy Rollins lost to the NL with injuries, there's a good chance Furcal could get the nod as Han-Ram's back-up.

Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks

Only eight major-leaguers have double-digit steals and double-digit homers at this juncture in the season.  The group includes superstars like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, and  David Wright.  It also includes Chris Young, who after two horrible seasons of regression is finally fulfilling the promise of his rookie year.  He's currently on pace for 28 HR and 28 SB, so the 30/30 potential once heralded is still very much a possibility.  Crucially, Young has cut down on his strikeout rate and raised his average.  He's on base more often and is running far more frequently than he did in the past.  He's also been especially good in RBI situations (906 OPS with men in scoring position).

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Six)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Five)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Other Pitching Prospects

We may be yet a month or more away from the much-anticipated arrivals of Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman.  In the meantime, however, a number of top pitching prospects are taking advantage of injuries and April inefficiencies.  Here are the most noteworthy:

Brett Cecil - Blue Jays (1-1, 3.55 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 11 K, 12 2/3 IP)

Last week Cecil replaced the injured Brian Tallet at the backend of the Jays rotation.  His initial starting assignments were a bit unfortunate, on the road against the red-hot Rays and at home against the streaking Red Sox, but the 23-year-old faired relatively well, managing at least six innings on both occasions.  He struck out eight Rays (though he yielded a pair of homers) and held the Sox scoreless for the first five innings.  Next week he'll get a more favorable matchup against the Indians.

Cecil is a top prospect, who throws in the mid-nineties with a wicked curve.  He got half a season worth of work last year, going 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA and a very poor strikeout to walk ratio (1.82).  This year, however, he seems to have corrected that problem.  In two starts at AAA he struck out eleven while walking on two.  And in his first two starts in the majors?  He's struck out eleven while walking only two.  A small sample size, no doubt, but certainly encouraging.  Cecil should be owned in AL-only leagues and is a solid spot-start option against weaker lineups in the mixed leagues.  Trips to New York, Boston, and Tampa could be a little rough on him, but I expect him to hold onto his spot in the rotation, even after the return of Tallet and Dustin McGowan.

Jhoulys Chacin - Rockies (3-0, 1.69 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 21 K, 21 1/3 IP @ AAA)

Chacin got the call when Colorado had to send Jason Hammel and Jorge De La Rosa to the D.L.  He's just 22-years-old, with nasty stuff, but like Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales at his age, he's wild.  Nobody can put a bat on him in Colorado Springs, but he's averaging upwards of six walks per nine innings in eight starts at AAA, dating back to last fall.  That won't fly in the show.

However, his first start comes against the free-swinging Giants, in San Francisco.  That's a favorable match-up.  Unless he's dominant, this is probably nothing more than a month-long audition, as De La Rosa, Hammel, and Jeff Francis are all likely to return sometime in June, if not before.

Jaime Garcia - Cardinals (2-1, 1.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 17 K, 26 IP)

Garcia has surged in front of Jason Heyward as the early NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner.  His walk rate (3.1 BB/9) is mild cause for concern, but otherwise his April record is fairly spotless, though we should note that he's faced only one lineup, Milwaukee, that's in the top half of the NL in scoring (the Brewers are, however, #1, and he shut them down).

There's no obvious back-up plan in St. Louis, so Garcia will have a long leash, even if he takes some lumps during his second run through the league.  Garcia clearly understands the Dave Duncan philosophy.  His groudball rate (71.2%) is currently tops in all of baseball.

Ian Kennedy - Diamondbacks (1-1, 4.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 27 K, 30 1/3 IP)

I know I've been writing about Kennedy every week for the past two months, but following another strong start this afternoon against the Cubs, I can't help but mention him again.  He's been pitching to contact in his past two starts and, as a result, has gone eight inning deep in each of them.  He's still giving up a disconcerting number of longballs (6 HR), but he limits baserunners (2.4 BB/9) and is capable of racking up strikeouts (8.0 K/9).  I think he's mixed-league worthy at this point, especially following strong outings against two fairly potent lineups (Phillies are #2 in NL, Cubs are #8).

Mike Leake - Reds (2-0, 3.25 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 18 K, 27 2/3 IP)


His starts haven't always been pretty, but so far Leake has been the most effective pitcher in the Cincinnati rotation, probably assuring that he won't be the one getting replaced by Chapman in the coming month.  Leake has kept the ball on the ground in the Great American SmallPark (59.3%) and has shown improved control in his last two starts (only three walks in his last fourteen innings, after giving up twelve walks in his first fourteen innings).  He throws lots of pitches with lots of movement, which makes for enjoyable viewing, but you do get the sense that the wheels will eventually come off, at least for a start or two.


Mitch Talbot - Indians (3-1, 2.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7 K, 26 1/3 IP)

Definitely the most overlooked rookie this month, Talbot has three victories, despite pitching in front of an anemic offense.  There is nothing about the 26-year-old's minor-league track record which suggests he can keep this up and the having more walks (11) than strikeouts (7) is rarely a path to success in the majors.  However, it's hard to argue that Talbot has had an easy time of it thusfar.  His wins came against the White Sox, Twins, and Angels.  Like his teammate, Fausto Carmona, he's been keeping his pitch count down by rolling lots of groundballs.  At the beginning of the season, Talbot looked like the odd man out, were Carlos Carrasco or Aaron Laffey to get off to a strong start at AAA, but for now his position is probably pretty safe.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Four)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the players in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the owners fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Two)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the players in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the owners fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week One)

Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues).  If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on another post.  I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN.  Since all the players in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the owners fairly active.  However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league.  Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.  


This week I'd like to make a couple additional points about streaming and particularly about teams which you draft with the intention of streaming from the start of the season.

The idea of streaming is to guarantee yourself two categories every week.  You still need to find a way to wrap up four more.  Obviously, the customary approach is to load up on hitting early and try to accumulate a strong corp of relievers later.  You can see the results of my "Stream Team" draft below.  I didn't take a pitcher until round nine.  I didn't take a starting pitcher until round twelve.

Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux's 2010 Hot List

I wrapped up my last "real" draft of the season this afternoon, but I won't simply be twiddling my thumbs until Opening Day.  Below is a comprehensive list of players who ended up on several Hippeaux teams this March.  This doesn't necessarily mean this are my "favorite" players at any position, merely that they are players who I clearly have ranked at least a notch or two higher than most of my competitors.  If a player winds up on two of my eight teams it might be merely coincidence, but three or more seems to suggest a pattern...

Offseason Prospectus #23: The Arizona Diamondbacks

With the combo of Manny and Big Papi forcefully divorced, and, to some extent, ravaged by the tides of time, it is logical to ask the question afresh, what is the most fearsome tandem in baseball?  Texeira & A-Rod would no doubt be the choice of a vocal minority.  But, good as they are, do they really match up to Pujols & Holliday, Mauer & Morneau, Utley & Howard, or, my personal favorite, Ryan Braun & Prince Fielder?  All have a legitimate claim, and not too far back of them are duos like Lance Berkman & Carlos Lee, Victor Martinez & Kevin Youkilis, and Derrek Lee & Aramis Ramirez.

I predict, however, assuming the D-Backs can retain their investments, within the next year or two, there will again be a clear answer to that question, as Justin Upton & Mark Reynolds develop into the premier run-producing duo of the twenty-teens.  In 2009 the pair broke out in a major way, combining for 70 HR, 188 RBI, 44 SB, and, just to keep their youth in perspective, 360 K.  Tremendous production, despite the fact that Upton missed a month in the middle of the season and both appeared weary down the stretch (706 September OPS for Upton, 610 for Reynolds).  But inconsistency is to be expected from a pair whose combined age is the same as Jamie Moyer's (47).

Upton, still only 22-years-old, seems (knock on wood) destined to become the toast of his generation, his career path thusfar comparing favorably to guys like Griffey, Mays, Aaron, and Bonds.  When I watch Upton, I can't help but see a young, right-handed Bonds: the upright stance, the short, lightning-quick stroke, and, perhaps most of all, the eery calm.  Reynolds's aspirations aren't quiet so high, but it is reasonable to expect his potential as a hitter falls somewhere between Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard, not too shabby in either case, and he has much more speed and, at least for now, plays a scarcer position than either of them.

The D-Backs will begin the season with high expectations.  It is reasonable to believe that this club is at least as good as the one that made the playoffs in 2007, as it is still filled with players who have not peaked.  That, combined with the fact that nobody in the NL West got significantly better this offseason, makes Arizona a darkhorse contender, albeit one that will need a fair number of good breaks.

Detroit Trades Entire Motown Catalogue; Receives Rights to Oak Ridge Boys, Jennifer Love Hewitt

I'll admit from the start, I'm having a hard time looking at this trade objectively. For the second year in a row, there is some serious coal in my stocking. Last December, C. C. Sabathia, the big, black Buddha known for his spine-shattering clubhouse embraces as much as his incredible pitching repertoire, signed a monster contract to become just another Storm Trooper on the flight deck of the Deathstar. Coming off a performance in Milwaukee that was so soulful (and so dominant) that it conjured up thoughts of "Pops" Stargell and the late '70s Pirates, it was very painful to see "Command & Control" Sabathia grinning while holding up XXL pinstripes.

Now, exactly a year later, another handsome, charismatic brother is headed to the Bronx. Since entering the majors, Curtis Granderson has been one of my favorite players. He inspires immense joy every time he chases a liner in the gap, turns a double into a triple, smacks a ankle-high fastball into the cheap seats, or melts a sideline reporter's heart with his radiant smile. But, as with Sabathia, my enjoyment of his exploits will be seriously diminished by the fact that they will henceforth assist in spreading evil across the land. I can't help but wonder whether Brian Cashman's main objective every holiday season is pissing in my egg nog.

That said, this is a very interesting trade for all the teams involved:

Detroit

IN: RHSP Max Scherzer (25), CF Austin Jackson (23), LHRP Daniel Schlereth (24), LHRP Phil Coke (27)

OUT: CF Curtis Granderson (29), RHSP Edwin Jackson (26)

Unfortunately, the guiding factor in this trade, from the Tigers perspective, is monetary. They signed Granderson to a back-loaded contract just prior to the '08 season. The last two years he cost them only $4.5 Million. Over the next four seasons he'll cost $36.75 Million. For the Yankees, that probably looks like a relative steal. For the Tigers, who desperately need payroll flexibility, Granderson's was a contract they could actually move. Although it is a self-inflicted wound, it's hard not to feel sorry for Tigers fans who are going to spend next year watching a whole flock of albatrosses. Here are some of the commitments Detroit has in 2010.

Jeremy Bonderman [$12.5 M]

Dontrelle Willis [$12 M]

Nate Robertson [$10 M]

Carlos Guillen [$13]

Magglio Ordonez [$18 M]

Brandon Inge [$6.6 M]

That's more than $70 Million going to half a dozen players, all of whom have shown dramatic decreases in production over the last two years and present serious injury risks. There's a strong possibility half of these players hardly see the field in '10. It's hard to fault Dave Dombrowski for trying to keep together and build from the core of players who helped the Tigers go to a World Series in 2006. But right now, that seems like a long time ago.

In exchange for Granderson and Jackson (who will probably earn at least $5 Million in arbitration), the Tigers get four players who will make the league minimum for at least another year, in some cases more. Every one of these players should fit into Detroit's immediate plans. Max Scherzer is one of the most promising power pitchers in the game. He struck out 174 batter in 170 innings in '09 and posted a very respectable 4.12 ERA for Arizona. His main problem was the long ball (20 HR), which may have been exacerbated by the intimate confines of his home ballpark. Detroit is a much better place for flyball pitchers. Combined with Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, the Tiger have the makings of an excellent rotation.

Austin Jackson is never going to have the extra-base power that Granderson offers, but other aspects of his game may be comparable. He hit .300 at AAA in '09 and features very good speed and defense. He isn't going to intimidate the way Granderson could when he was streaking, but Jackson could turn into a competent leadoff hitter.

Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth are solid first steps towards fixing the bullpen depth issues which were a major Achilles Heel for the Tigers last season. With the two most talented relievers from '09, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, hitting the free agent market, Detroit still has a long way to go, but Coke and Schlereth are very suitable for the middle innings and could develop into more. Schlereth had a miserly 1.13 ERA in the minors and struck out a whopping 13.6 batters per nine innings.

Yankees

IN: C. Granderson

OUT: A. Jackson, P. Coke, RHSP Ian Kennedy (25)

Although I obviously appreciate the quality of Granderson as much as anybody, this looks like a very strange decision to me from New York's perspective. First and foremost, the only thing the Yankees really had an excess of this offseason were promising young centerfielders. The one thing that seemed certain about the Yankees 2010 outfield, was that it would feature at least one of the trio of Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Austin Jackson. All three of these youngsters, like Granderson, are excellent defenders, so their value is tied somewhat to their position. Cabrera and Gardner, though respectable hitters, don't offer the kind of power one would expect from Yankee corner outfielders.

My greatest fear is that this "blockbuster" is just Cashman's prequel to a deal that will net the Yankees Roy Halladay (or another big-name starting pitcher). Such a deal would undoubtedly feature Gardner, Cabrera, or both. Cabrera is younger, more experienced, has more upside, and a more complete skillset than Gardner, who is pretty much a pure slap-hitter, so Melky should be the more coveted player. However, Cabrera's switch-hitting and particularly his ability to hit left-handed pitching make him a more natural fit in the Yankees outfield/DH rotation. Granderson stuggles mightily against lefties (484 OPS in '09), so it would be nice for the Yanks to have a solid right-handed centerfielder available.

D-Backs

IN: E. Jackson, I. Kennedy

OUT: M. Scherzer, D. Schlereth

This move will draw a fair amount of criticism from scouts and fans who believe Scherzer is on the verge of becoming an legitimate Ace. The D-Backs front office, however, is clearly concerned with the violence of his delivery, and are opting instead for the reliability of Jackson, who has made 30+ starts in every season since he became a full-time starter.

The overlooked piece in the analysis of this deal is Ian Kennedy. It is easy to forget that only a couple years ago the Yankees saw Kennedy as the equal, perhaps even the better, of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, a centerpiece of their staff for years to come. Although it didn't work out that way in '08, when he posted an 8.17 ERA in nine starts and ended up having Tommy John surgery, Kennedy's potential, when healthy, remains as high as anybody involved in this trade. The Yankees have chosen to give up on him. For a team that has continually struggled to develop and maintain starting pitchers over the last decade, that may prove to be very unwise. During his minor league career, Kennedy made 43 starts and posted a miniscule 1.95 ERA with 273 K in 249 IP and a 0.99 WHIP. If Kennedy retains all his skills and Jackson merely maintains his status quo, Arizona could be the big winner in this deal.