We've been hearing it ad nauseum for a month now: it's the "year of the pitcher." Tomorrow, however, that impression will be made even more tangible by the All-Star Selection Show, airing on TBS. So many pitchers are having dynamite seasons that a large percentage of fans are going to be surprised and horrified when their local Ace doesn't get the call, despite excellent totals. It's almost certain that Joe Girardi and Charlie Manuel will be forced to leave off at least one guy with double-digit wins, at least one guy on pace for 200+ K, and probably several with ERAs under 3.00.
One way to dull the sting of this, at least slightly, is a creative use of MLB's "Final Vote," through which the fans choose the 34th player on each side. The last two seasons, both managers have used that ballot exclusively for position players. This year, it would be nice to give kudos to a few more arms by making it a pitching ballot. Another possibility is going with fewer relievers. All-Star managers have generally reserved five or six out of their thirteen pitching slots for their league's top relievers. This year, it might be wise to pare that back to four or five, as the "year of the pitcher" has not been as kind to relievers as it has to starters (the average starter's ERA is down 0.27 runs from '09, the average reliever's is down only 0.01).
Here are some of the most interesting selection storylines to watch for tomorrow:
Nepotism or Anti-Nepotism?
Almost every year one of the All-Star managers gets accused of choosing one too many of his own players. This season, certainly, Joe Girardi could face such criticism if he went for Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira, Jorge Posada, or Alex Rodriguez over other more deserving candidates. Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano have been voted in by the fans. Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte are also shoo-ins at their positions. Phil Hughes and C. C. Sabathia also have legitimate claims. How many All-Stars can one team have?
Don't be surprised if you see both managers erring in the other direction. The Yankees and Phillies primary goals are getting back to the World Series. If possible, these managers may seek to give their own player a much-needed midseason vacation. I expect either Hughes or Sabathia will pitch on the last day of the first half, thus preventing them from being available for the All-Star game. Even if they are both selected, one will almost certainly be replaced.
To Stras or Not to Stras?
It's been the big debate at ESPN for the last week or so. I certainly understand the temptation from the perspective of marketing. The Golden Arm going head to head with the AL's best would make for good television, but take a long look at just a few of the NL's other borderline starting pitching candidates and tell me who off this list you would tell to stay at home because you prefer showcase a 21-year-old with half a dozen major-league starts. Reigning two-time Cy-Young winner, Tim Lincecum? Perennial Cy Young candidate and nine-game winner, Chris Carpenter? The major-league strikeout leader, Yovani Gallardo?
The Other Rooks
Strasburg isn't the only rookie who could be headed to Anaheim. Jaime Garcia is a pretty sure bet, as he is second in the NL in ERA. Brennan Boesch is similarly among the AL leaders in several categories and should have his ticket punched. Neftali Feliz leads the AL in saves. Jason Heyward will likely be voted in, although injury will keep him out of the lineup. Gaby Sanchez and Mike Leake are also worth of a long look.
Battling To Back-Up
Because of the fans tendency to elect at least a couple of infielders based on name recognition alone and the fact that each manager will likely carry only one back-up for most of the infield positions, there are often tough choices to be made for those spots. Here are the most difficult this year:
NL C: Mike Napoli v. Jorge Posada
Both of these guys are probably more suited to DH, but with Victor Martinez on the DL, no other AL catchers are even close enough in the running to make defense a deciding factor. I think Girardi goes with Napoli, both to satisfy the hosts in Anaheim and to give Posada more rest. Such a choice will only fuel speculation of their feud in the New York papers.
AL SS: Elvis Andrus v. Alex Gonzalez
Alex Gonzalez leads AL shortstops in homers, RBI, and OPS, but he's slumped significantly since April, and faces stiff competition from Elvis Andrus, who leads AL shortstops in runs, AVG, OBP, and stolen bases. Both are accomplished glovemen. I expect, if it comes to it, Girardi will opt for the veteran. Andrus, at just 21-year-old, is going to have many, many more shots at selection.
NL 3B: Scott Rolen v. Ryan Zimmerman
Z-Pack's recent slump combined with the fact that Rolen plays for a first-place teams will probably tilt this in favor of the Red, but both are excellent defensive players have outstanding campaigns.
So, an Indian, a Pirate, and an Oriole walk into a bar...
Many oppose the rule that every team must be represented at the All-Star Game, but I think it's great, because it rewards players who have little else to look forward to after their teams have been eliminated in May. And, we get to see talents like Andrew McCutchen, who will be the Pirates lone representative, that don't get a lot of national recognition. It also makes the roster math super complicated. Here are some teams that will probably only get one roster spot, but have two or more equally deserving players.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Justin Upton v. Chris Young
They are both outfielders, their numbers are nearly identical, and they are clearly the best candidates on their team, so this one is going to be especially difficult for Charlie Manuel. Upton has more cache and a better chance of hitting the best pitching the AL has to offer, but Young is a spectacular defensive center-fielder, something the NL roster may be otherwise lacking.
Baltimore Orioles: Nick Markakis v. Ty Wigginton
Neither separates himself dramatically from the other by pure numbers (and, really, Luke Scott would be right there with them if he wasn't a DH). Nick Markakis is clearly the better player, but he is having a down year by his standards, with almost no power. Wigginton, on the other hand, raised his modest game when given the opportunity to play everyday due to the injury to Brian Roberts. His biggest advantage over Markakis and Scott is his ability to play all over the diamond, flexibility that could come in handy for the AL.
Chicago Cubs: Carlos Marmol v. Carlos Silva
A depth of NL outfielders will probably keep Alfonso Soriano and Marlon Byrd out of the running at that position, forcing Charlie Manuel to take a Cubs pitcher. Silva is having a great season, but not in comparison to guys like Mat Latos, Tim Hudson, and Mike Pelfrey, one of whom he could be ousting. There is a much stronger argument that Marmol has been one of the four or five best closers in the NL, though Francisco Rodriguez and Francisco Cordero might disagree.
Cleveland Indians: Fausto Carmona v. Shin-Soo Choo
Although both are having solid seasons, if it were based on pure performance, neither would rank among the top ten at their position (Choo would be borderline). Because the outfield crop is not as deep as the starting pitching field, I think Choo has the upper hand.
Houston Astros: Matt Lindstrom v. Roy Oswalt
Take a look at the Astros hitting stats. Wow. They don't have a single player with an OPS even near 800. This is probably a chance for Oswalt to audition for his potential suitors.
Oakland Athletics: Andrew Bailey v. Trevor Cahill
Both are plenty deserving and there is a slim chance they could both make the squad, but I think Cahill has the leg up. He's been absolutely dynamite since joining the rotation a month into the season, with 8 wins in just 13 starts and the league's fourth best ERA (2.74).
Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Bautista v. Vernon Wells
The resilient Blue Jays really deserve to be better represented, but I just don't see how it's going to happen. Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum are both having excellent seasons, but will be thrown amongst a host of borderline candidates that have very similar numbers. I mentioned Gonzalez's situation above. So, it comes down to Bautista and Wells, both having very good seasons, especially in the power department. I think Bautista gets the call, both because he's the AL leader in HR, making him a potential derby contestance, and because he could fill in as an infielder if necessary.
The Dangers of Co-Depency
With so many pitchers deserving consideration, it's going to be very difficult to take multiple pitchers from the same staff if they aren't head and tails above the other competition. Here are some teams with co-Aces who might be suffering from separation anxiety.
Minnesota Twins: Francisco Liriano v. Carl Pavano
Mauer and Morneau will were voted in, so Girardi doesn't need another Twin, but Pavano and Liriano have both been excellent, well worth of selection. Something tells me that Girardi will prefer the man who wasn't being referred to as "American Idle" by the New York press during Girardi's tumultuous first year as manager.
New York Yankees: Phil Hughes v. C. C. Sabathia
Both have double-digit wins and solid, though not spectacular, overall numbers. The Yankees much-publicized desired to keep Hughes inning down might be a contributing factor here, but they also may be looking to reward him with his first All-Star nod. It is equally tempting to try to keep The Big Sleep, renowned for this second half dominance, fresh for the pennant race.
San Francisco Giants: Matt Cain v. Tim Lincecum
Lincecum leads in strikeouts and victories, and he has that whole back-to-back Cy Young think going for him, but Cain has actually been the more consistent pitcher this year, as he 2.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP attest. A truly tough call, and it's possible they both could be left off. Imagine that.
So, if I picked the rosters, this is what they'd look like (assuming voting closed with the same results as were posted at the beginning of the week):
Showing posts with label Stephen Strasburg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stephen Strasburg. Show all posts
Saturday, July 03, 2010
Friday, June 04, 2010
Super Two, Super For Who? (Part Deux)
This past Wednesday, I contributed a guest blog for Inside Pulse Sports, renewing my quasi-familiar rant against the "Super Two" rule in response to disingenuous public diatribes by Brian Sabean and Mike Rizzo in the week preceding their announcements of the promotions of Buster Posey and Stephen Strasburg. Today I offer some additional notes regarding "Super Two."
- As if on cue, the Pirates GM, Neal Huntington, responded to questions about Pedro Alvarez and Brad Lincoln on Tuesday by saying, "They're just not ready yet. We're essentially through the arbitration window, so the reality is we're waiting for some finer finishing touches on all these guys. We're still a ways away." Alvarez had a 982 OPS in May. He's third in the International League with 11 HR on the season. Lincoln had a 2.38 ERA in May, with a ridiculous 31/4 K/BB rate. When a GM describes player development using ambiguous terms like "finer finishing touches," it's usually because he's blowing smoke up your ass. If the pattern holds, based on the similar masquerades by Rizzo and Sabean, we can expect Alvarez and Lincoln to both make their debuts before the end of June.
- In the last two offseasons, the cut-off for "Super Two" status has been either 139 (Carlos Gomez, '09) or 140 (Taylor Buchholz, '08) days. Based on that timeline, we could assume that the cut-off this season will be somewhere in the middle of May. In order to get 140 days of service this season, a player would have to be promoted by May 17. However, this is a little misleading. When discussion the '09 and '10 arbitration classes, we are referring to players who (in most cases) made their major-league debuts in '05, '06, and '07. Team have become much more cognizant of the "Super Two" designation in the intervening years and their reticence would suggest that the date will get progressively later (as fewer teams are willing to promote players in the opening months).
- In each of the last two offseasons, fifteen players qualified for "Super Two" status. But, of course, it isn't as easy as counting the first fifteen promotions of 2010. Many fans don't realize how often some players, especially young relievers and back-of-the-rotation starters, are shuffled back and forth to AAA. Twins reliever Jeff Manship was recently promoted and demoted twice in less than three weeks. Of the 146 rookies who appeared in a big-league games during the first two months of the season, 62 have already made at least one trip back to their minor-league affiliate, and many more will ride that bus before the end of June. The roster math is made more complicated by the fact that some players who still have rookie status, have several weeks of service time accumulated from a previous season.
- When the season began, their were 60 rookies on MLB rosters. 23 of them have already been returned to the minors, at least temporarily, meaning they won't get a full year of service time in 2010. Of the remaining 47, less than 20 have played well enough in significant roles to make themselves safe bets to last on the MLB roster for the full season.
- 86 rookies have been promoted since Opening Day. 39 of them have already suffered another demotion. Of the remaining 47, at least 20 are filling expressly temporary roles (i.e. replacing injured regulars) and will almost certainly be returned to the minors for much of the remaining year.
- So, in conclusion, I provide you with a list of the players with the best chances of securing "Super Two" status...
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Are the Nationals fooling anybody?
In the wake of Stephen Strasburg's latest round of dominance - he's allowed one lonely single in twelve innings at AAA - it may be time for the Nationals to reevaluate their course of action. When Washington send him down at the beginning of the season, they insisted it has nothing to do with his arbitration clock. They wanted him to develop his arm strength in low-pressure situations. They wanted him to work on a third pitch, his changeup, which had been utterly irrelevant during his college career. And they wanted him to increase the speed of his delivery in the stretch and work on holding runners.
At this point, however, one has to wonder whether there is any utility for Strasburg pitching in the minors. Assuming he's throwing his changeup consistently - and the scouts say that he is - it must be working pretty well, because he's got 40 strikeouts in 34 innings. Presumably, they aren't too worried about developing his arm strength any further, considering they're pulling him after six innings, even when he has a no-hitter going. And it's damned hard for him to work on holding runners when he's only allowing about three per start.
Strasburg's given up only one extra-base hit (a double) and has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 4-to-1. I'm certainly not ready to argue that he'll immediately dominate the National League the way he's dominated the Eastern and International Leagues, but I just don't see how we can call what he's doing at AAA "development." Pitchers "develop" by working out of jams, by responding to adversity, by facing hitters who are capable of beating them when they make even the slightest mistake, perhaps even when they don't. None of those things are happening in Syracuse.
So, at this point, the only logical reason for Strasburg remaining in the minors is fiscal. Don't get me wrong: that's a good reason! The Nationals are not a probably not a contending team this season, despite their respectable record thusfar, and, learning from the Rays, Rangers, and Rockies, they are no doubt aware that team with their budget cannot make fly-by-night promotional decisions. As soon as the Nationals are comfortable that Strasburg won't be making Super Two status, he'll be in the big leagues. But for fans, both in Washington and across the country, that's really not soon enough.
What I see here is a problem that's going to need to be addressed at the next round of collective bargaining. The Super Two rule was clearly put into effect in order to get more players to the arbitration earlier in their careers. But one has to question at this point whether it is having that effect. More and more teams delay the arrival of top prospects in order to get an extra four months of cheap labor. Sure, the Cubs, who constantly throw money at their problems, can afford to promote Starlin Castro in May. And the Rangers, seeing a division title very much in their grasps, are willing to bring Justin Smoak to the majors in April, future costs be damned. In recent memory, however, there are a number of instances when a late promotion damaged a team's shot at contention.
For instance...
At this point, however, one has to wonder whether there is any utility for Strasburg pitching in the minors. Assuming he's throwing his changeup consistently - and the scouts say that he is - it must be working pretty well, because he's got 40 strikeouts in 34 innings. Presumably, they aren't too worried about developing his arm strength any further, considering they're pulling him after six innings, even when he has a no-hitter going. And it's damned hard for him to work on holding runners when he's only allowing about three per start.
Strasburg's given up only one extra-base hit (a double) and has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 4-to-1. I'm certainly not ready to argue that he'll immediately dominate the National League the way he's dominated the Eastern and International Leagues, but I just don't see how we can call what he's doing at AAA "development." Pitchers "develop" by working out of jams, by responding to adversity, by facing hitters who are capable of beating them when they make even the slightest mistake, perhaps even when they don't. None of those things are happening in Syracuse.
So, at this point, the only logical reason for Strasburg remaining in the minors is fiscal. Don't get me wrong: that's a good reason! The Nationals are not a probably not a contending team this season, despite their respectable record thusfar, and, learning from the Rays, Rangers, and Rockies, they are no doubt aware that team with their budget cannot make fly-by-night promotional decisions. As soon as the Nationals are comfortable that Strasburg won't be making Super Two status, he'll be in the big leagues. But for fans, both in Washington and across the country, that's really not soon enough.
What I see here is a problem that's going to need to be addressed at the next round of collective bargaining. The Super Two rule was clearly put into effect in order to get more players to the arbitration earlier in their careers. But one has to question at this point whether it is having that effect. More and more teams delay the arrival of top prospects in order to get an extra four months of cheap labor. Sure, the Cubs, who constantly throw money at their problems, can afford to promote Starlin Castro in May. And the Rangers, seeing a division title very much in their grasps, are willing to bring Justin Smoak to the majors in April, future costs be damned. In recent memory, however, there are a number of instances when a late promotion damaged a team's shot at contention.
For instance...
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Stephen Strasburg v. Aroldis Chapman
Whether fairly or not, these phenoms are going to be inextricably linked, at least for the next couple years, if not for the entirety of their careers. For starters, both were born in 1988. Both rose to notoriety more than a year before they signed major-league contracts: Chapman as an enigma in Cuba's bullpen during the '09 WBC and Strasburg as an absolutely unhittable Ace during his final two seasons playing for Tony Gwynn's team at San Diego State.
They ascended into the public consciousness for much the same reason. They both are capable of not only touching triple digits on the radar gun, an ability that sends tingles down the spine of the most jaded baseball men, but appear to be able to live there for innings at a time on their best days. Justin Verlander and Ubaldo Jimenez are the only starting pitchers currently in the major leagues who climb into that range even occasionally, and the ability to do it consistently was the exclusive territory of Joel Zumaya in 2009.
This ability to light up the radar gun, combined with the impression that both have excellent pitches with which to balance the dominating fastball, led both to enter unprecedented contractual territory. The Nationals took Strasburg with the #1 pick in '09 and will pay him $15 Million over the next four seasons. The biggest contract ever extended to an American amateur player. A few months later Chapman set a new precedent for amateur internationals by signing a six-year, $30 Million deal with the Reds.
Naturally, as both have joined franchises who have almost nothing to show for the last decade, fans of the Reds and Nats are clamoring to see these wunderkinds pitch. And so far this spring, neither has disappointed. Chapman has yet to allow a run in two outings. He's thrown four innings, struck out five, and allowed three hits and a walk. He has, as promised, had several 100 MPH deliveries. Strasburg, also, has not yet allowed a run, striking out four and walking one in five innings of work.
The immediate future, however, seems set in stone for Stephen Strasburg. He will make one or two more starts before being optioned to the minor-leagues, where, depending on how he fairs, he will remain until at least June, so that the Nationals can set his arbitration clock back a year. Although it's may be a disappointment to Washington fans, and baseball fans generally, it's a savvy move.
The Nats aren't going anywhere in 2010. They play in a division which includes their league's reigning behemoth, the Phillies, as well as three other teams with aspirations of contending (whether realistic or not). Two of Washington's most promising young pitchers, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler, are out for at least the first half of the season, as is their promising young backstop, Jesus Flores. The Nats know that Strasburg, so long as he stays healthy, will be part of their rotation for many years to come. They aren't so sure about guys like Scott Olsen, Craig Stammen, J. D. Martin, and Garrett Mock. Now is good time to see what those fellows can do.
On the other hand, the Cincinnati Reds have reason to believe that their time is now. They went 27-13 down the stretch in 2009. On paper at least, they match up fairly well with all three of the teams the finished ahead of them in 2009. Their manager, Dusty Baker, is in the final year of his contract, at the beginning of which he promised to end Cincinnati's playoff drought, dating back to 1995. If he wants to be rehired in 2011, he'll need to at least deliver the club's first winning season since 2000.
There is no tangential benefit to leaving Chapman behind at the start of the season, if he seems ready. The other options for the rotation, Justin Lehr and Micah Owings, are veteran players who have had several seasons in the major-leagues already. There is almost no chance they will be anything better than replacement-level starters. Also, because of how Chapman's contract is structured, the Reds have already bought out most of his arbitration years, so their isn't any financial incentive to keeping him in the minor leagues for an extra couple months. If they believe he's ready (and indications so far are that he is), he should be their fifth starter.
They ascended into the public consciousness for much the same reason. They both are capable of not only touching triple digits on the radar gun, an ability that sends tingles down the spine of the most jaded baseball men, but appear to be able to live there for innings at a time on their best days. Justin Verlander and Ubaldo Jimenez are the only starting pitchers currently in the major leagues who climb into that range even occasionally, and the ability to do it consistently was the exclusive territory of Joel Zumaya in 2009.
This ability to light up the radar gun, combined with the impression that both have excellent pitches with which to balance the dominating fastball, led both to enter unprecedented contractual territory. The Nationals took Strasburg with the #1 pick in '09 and will pay him $15 Million over the next four seasons. The biggest contract ever extended to an American amateur player. A few months later Chapman set a new precedent for amateur internationals by signing a six-year, $30 Million deal with the Reds.
Naturally, as both have joined franchises who have almost nothing to show for the last decade, fans of the Reds and Nats are clamoring to see these wunderkinds pitch. And so far this spring, neither has disappointed. Chapman has yet to allow a run in two outings. He's thrown four innings, struck out five, and allowed three hits and a walk. He has, as promised, had several 100 MPH deliveries. Strasburg, also, has not yet allowed a run, striking out four and walking one in five innings of work.
The immediate future, however, seems set in stone for Stephen Strasburg. He will make one or two more starts before being optioned to the minor-leagues, where, depending on how he fairs, he will remain until at least June, so that the Nationals can set his arbitration clock back a year. Although it's may be a disappointment to Washington fans, and baseball fans generally, it's a savvy move.
The Nats aren't going anywhere in 2010. They play in a division which includes their league's reigning behemoth, the Phillies, as well as three other teams with aspirations of contending (whether realistic or not). Two of Washington's most promising young pitchers, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler, are out for at least the first half of the season, as is their promising young backstop, Jesus Flores. The Nats know that Strasburg, so long as he stays healthy, will be part of their rotation for many years to come. They aren't so sure about guys like Scott Olsen, Craig Stammen, J. D. Martin, and Garrett Mock. Now is good time to see what those fellows can do.
On the other hand, the Cincinnati Reds have reason to believe that their time is now. They went 27-13 down the stretch in 2009. On paper at least, they match up fairly well with all three of the teams the finished ahead of them in 2009. Their manager, Dusty Baker, is in the final year of his contract, at the beginning of which he promised to end Cincinnati's playoff drought, dating back to 1995. If he wants to be rehired in 2011, he'll need to at least deliver the club's first winning season since 2000.
There is no tangential benefit to leaving Chapman behind at the start of the season, if he seems ready. The other options for the rotation, Justin Lehr and Micah Owings, are veteran players who have had several seasons in the major-leagues already. There is almost no chance they will be anything better than replacement-level starters. Also, because of how Chapman's contract is structured, the Reds have already bought out most of his arbitration years, so their isn't any financial incentive to keeping him in the minor leagues for an extra couple months. If they believe he's ready (and indications so far are that he is), he should be their fifth starter.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Offseason Prospectus #15: The Washington Nationals
Bud Selig was so sure about moving the Expos out of Montreal. He was so sure that he forcefully promoted the relocation and even contraction for years, despite protests from fans and the players union, dissent from other teams and MLB executives, and even massive lawsuits, some which charged him with racketeering. In an unprecedented and ethically dubious arrangement, MLB actually owned and operated the Expos for three seasons from 2002 until 2004, after which they became the Washington Nationals. In Washington, where there would soon be a new stadium (opened in 2008), Selig assured us that the franchise would become popular, competitive, and profitable.
2009, the fifth full season of Washington Nationals baseball, was the worst yet. Not only did the Nats post their worst winning percentage (.364) since moving to D.C., it was the franchises worst performance since 1976. And the putrid on-field performance paled in comparison to the shenanigans of the front office. Before the season even began a scandal with there South American scouting led to a host of firings and the resignation of the General Manager. At midseason, the Nats also fired their field manager, Manny Acta, who has since signed on to manage the Cleveland Indians. Frustration with the direction of the team caused an alarming rate of fan attrition, as attendance dropped to its lowest rate ever. Only 1.8 million fans paid for Nats tickets in 2009, that's over a million less than in their first season of existence. On one particularly sad day in early June, Randy Johnson picked up his 300th win in front of a crowd so small that the Nationals refused to release the attendance figures. This, my friends, is not a franchise headed in the right direction.
Free Agents:
Livan Hernandez (35) RHSP
Mike MacDougal (33) RHRP
Austin Kearns (30) RF
Saul Rivera (32) RHRP
Ron Villone (40) RHRP
Arbitration Eligible:
Jason Bergmann (28) RHSP
Sean Burnett (27) RHRP
Jesus Flores (25) C
Wil Nieves (32) C
Scott Olsen (26) LHSP
Josh Willingham (31) LF
ETA 2010?:
Ian Desmond (24) SS
Justin Maxwell (26) OF
Stephen Strasburg (21) RHSP
Drew Storen (22) RHRP
Aaron Thompson (23) LHSP
Despite having one of the worst overall seasons in the franchise's history, there was one bright spot in 2009. Washington had earned the #1 pick in the June draft. With it, they selected what many believe to be the best pitching prospect of all time, the triple-digit phenom from San Diego State, Stephen Strasburg. Most scouts believe Strasburg is ready to pitch in the majors immediately. The fan base could use the thrill of seeing a massive talent every fifth game, but the Nats may choose to be cautious and slow his movement towards free agency by keeping him in the minors for a least a couple months (as the Rays did with Evan Longoria in '08 and Orioles did with Matt Wieters last season).
For much of the Nationals existence they have had to field a rotation of cast-offs and also-rans, relying heavily on guys like Shawn Hill, Matt Chico, and Tim Redding, pitchers who epitomize the AAAA player. Thankfully, after a number of high draft picks, the Nationals are ready to field a rotation with a lot of talent, though not a lot of experience. Strasburg (21) heads a group of freshman and sophomores which also includes Jordan Zimmerman (24), Ross Detwiler (24), Shairon Martis (23), Craig Stammen (25), and Aaron Thompson (23). All of these pitchers have the talent to become quality starters. It may not happen in 2010, but at least the potential is there and Nats fans can indulge a little hope every time out.
The veteran leadership will be provided by John Lannan (only 25), Scott Olsen (only 26), and recent, somewhat inexplicable free agent signing, Jason Marquis (31). What Marquis possesses is a rubber arm. He hardly every misses a start and he'll keep his team within striking distance for six innings a start. When the rest of the staff, including the bullpen, is young, such durability and consistency is valuable, even if the quality is, at best, league average. Lannan, on the other hand, is among the most unsung pitchers in the game. In two full seasons he has made 64 starts and posted a 3.89 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, very quality production for a player who just turned 25 and plays for a decrepit franchise. His upside is Mark Buehrle-esque.
The Nationals bullpen became a running joke during the first half of 2009, and it was one of the main reasons Manny Acta got himself fired. The Nats converted only 57% of their save opportunities in 'o9 (worst in MLB), and that number was even lower before they acquired Mike MacDougal, who went 20 for 21 from June 17 to the end of the season. They were also last in the majors in bullpen ERA (5.09). So, it makes sense that they performed a full overhaul, trading, releasing, or not re-signing eight players who pitched 25 or more relief innings in '09, including MacDougal. The question now is, who's going to eat those innings.
The Nats signed Matt Capps, presumably to close, but though he is younger and has more upside than MacDougal, he is also more expensive and was among the least efficient closers in all of baseball for Pittsburgh last year. Washington also added Doug Slaten and Brian Bruney to fill out the bullpen corps (and will have a look a Eddie Guardado during Spring Training), but will probably rely most heavily on the development of Tyler Clippard (2.69 ERA, 67 K in 60 IP in '09), Garrett Mock, Jason Bergmann, Collin Balester, and their "other" 2009 first-rounder, Drew Storen.
Washington actually outscored traditional powerhouses like the Mets, Cubs, and Astros in '09, finishing in the middle of the pack in the NL. Adam Dunn did what he was paid to do, crushing 38 HR and driving in 105 runs. Ryan Zimmerman benefitted greatly from the improved protection, and at 24 posted his biggest season to date (.292, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 110 R, 888 OPS). Additionally, the Nats had to be pleasantly surprised by the production of Josh Willingham (24 HR, 863 OPS) and Nyjer Morgan (.369 OBP, 42 SB). If the Nats are to take a step forward offensively in '10, they will need those four to hold steady, and they will need improved production from Elijah Dukes and whoever is playing second base. It is unclear whether Washington has any more money to spend, but if they do, they could be bidders on the remaining middle-infielders, guys like Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, and Kelly Johnson. Or, more likely, they could go after a utilityman, perhaps Chad Tracy, Jerry Hairston, or Adam Kennedy.
The signing of Marquis and Capps surprised pundits this winter, but the biggest surprise was the signing of 38-year-old legendary backstop, Pudge Rodriguez, to a two-year, $6 Million contract. Pudge's numbers have been in consistent decline since 2006, which isn't surprising, considering his age and the toll of his position. In '09 he managed just a 663 OPS, but he still manages the running game (35% CS in '09) and handles the pitching staff. The logic of this signing will come down to how the Nats use him. If he is primarily Jesus Flores' backup, tutoring a youngster who is, at 25, one of the better young catching prospects in the game (he posted an 877 OPS in limited action in '09), than the signing makes a lot of sense. If Pudge cuts into Flores' development by demanding the bulk of the playing time, than his presence is counterproductive.
I think that the Washington faithful can look forward to small step in the right direction in 2010, but the Nats are a long way from flowering the way that Tampa Bay has in recent years. They have accumulated a nice selection of pitching prospects, but they need to promote their offense as well. Next offseason will be critical, as Adam Dunn and Christian Guzman will enter free agency, freeing up a lot of cash. What the front office does with it may determine whether the Nats head towards becoming the Rays or the Royals.
Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:
CF Nyjer Morgan (L)
SS Christian Guzman (S)
3B Ryan Zimmerman (R)
1B Adam Dunn (L)
LF Josh Willingham (R)
RF Elijah Dukes (R)
C Jesus Flores (R)
2B Willie Harris (R)
SP John Lannan (L)
SP Scott Olsen (L)
SP Jason Marquis (R)
SP Stephen Strasburg (R)
SP Jordan Zimmerman (R)
CL Matt Capps (R)
SU Tyler Clippard (R)
SU Drew Storen (R)
MR Brian Bruney (R)
MR Sean Burnett (L)
LOOGY Doug Slaten (L)
MOP Jason Bergmann (R)
C Ivan Rodriguez (R)
2B/SS Alberto Gonzalez (R)
2B/3B Adam Kennedy (L) FA
IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R)
OF Justin Maxwell (R)
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