Fantastic Thoughts: "First base is deep, but not that deep." (Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings)

I've discussed the "three threes" strategy before, most recently in my 2010 BLOGZKRIEG! Auction Diary, but heres a quick refresher.

My theory is that first-baseman, besides consistently filling up the stat sheet, are less frequently injured than players who play more strenuous positions.  So, I aim to get as many 1B/DH types on my roster as possible, three at minimum: at first, corner infield, and utility.  If you have an instance, as we did in 2010, where a former third-baseman or outfielder is being moved to first (i.e. Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus, etc.), but still has eligibility at their old position, than that opens up the possibility of getting even more.

Here are the numbers, by position, of players who got at least 600 plate appearances in 2010:

C: 0
1B: 21
2B: 9
3B: 11
SS: 10
LF: 10
CF: 14
RF: 11
DH: 4

This was actually an even more pronounced distribution than I've seen in years past, but 1B is almost always the runaway leader.  Keeping your players on the field is one of the most important and least predictable aspects of playing fantasy baseball and this is one way I seek to exert a little bit of control.

This season, however, the class of first baseman is not as deep as it has been in the recent past.  There are a few reasons for this.  No fewer than ten teams are currently planning to go with young first-baseman, either rookies or sophomores.  Some of them are quite promising, but there is always risk involved with young players.  Furthermore, we have a couple of premier hitters - Justin Morneau and Kendry Morales - who are coming back from injuries and whose production, especially in the early months of the season, could be effected.  Several players who were formerly considered safe producers - Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, etc. - are coming off bad years.  It's hard to feel comfortable predicting a rebound.  And, on the other side, guys like Paul Konerko and Aubrey Huff just posted career highs.  What can we expect from them?

It's a tough crop to gauge, which is one reason why the elite first-baggers, always among the most expensive players on the board, may be even more sought-after.

1. Albert Pujols, STL
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET

Not only are they the clear leaders at the position, they are, in my mind at least, the two most valuable players in fantasy baseball.  If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably hear a lot more about the historical precedence of Miggy's seven-year stretching of averaging .317 - 100 - 34 - 117 - 4.  But, of course, Prince Albert's stretch runs to ten years at .331 - 119 - 41 - 123 - 8.  Sick.  Just sick.

3. Prince Fielder, MIL
4. Joey Votto, CIN
5. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
6. Ryan Howard, PHI

Many would scoff at putting Fielder ahead of the 2010 NL MVP, but remember we're not paying for last year's stats.  History has suggested, that short of legends like Pujols and Bonds, it's really hard to maintain MVP-type numbers from one year to the next.  I'm not saying Votto won't continue to be productive, but I expect a modest decline from a player who, to be honest, set career highs is basically everything in 2010.  Fielder is the same age as Votto, but with a much longer and more impressive overall track record and, coming off a slightly down season (.261-94-32-83-1), in a contract year, and playing for a serious contender, he's got everything to prove.

7. Mark Teixeira, NYY
8. Justin Morneau, MIN
10. Kendry Morales, LAA
11. Adam Dunn, CWS

Note that, absent from this group is Kevin Youkilis.  If he were here, I would probably rank him ahead of Teixeira, but as he will be spending most of the season at the hot corner, following the Adrian Gonzalez trade, that's where I'm going to rank him.  Again, it has to do with wanting to focus on the guys that have the luxury of playing baseball's least taxing position.  This is a class of players who are all clearly superb hitters and could very well end up out-producing several players in the tier above them, but all give us reason for pause.  Morales is coming off a broken leg that cost him almost all of 2010.  Morneau looked like he was heading for his second MVP award, but concussions cut he season short at the halfway point.  Teixeira dealt with minor injuries and still produced at a high level, except in terms of batting average, which fell to a career low (.256, is probably just a fluke, based on his .268 BABIP).  Batting average is also the concern for Dunn, who actually was above his career norms in his two years in Washington.  The move to Chicago could be good for his power totals, but changing leagues might cause him to backtrack in terms of average and strikeouts.  Again, it's possible any one of these guys could give you a top-five caliber performance, but there's some minor uncertainties.

12. Billy Butler, KC
13. Paul Konerko, CWS
14. Aubrey Huff, SFG
15. Adam Lind, TOR

This is where the first substantial dropoff happens.  All of these guys have certainly proved themselves capable of putting up big numbers, but their ability to do it consistently in the question.  After mediocre showings in '08 and '09 it looked like Konerko was entering his decline.  Then, just before his contract expired, he posted the best season of his career, at age 34.  Though a year younger, Huff's situation is similar.  2010 was, in many respects, his best showing since 2003 (although he also had a very respectable year in 2008).  Lind was an MVP candidate in '09, but fell apart last year.  In 2011 he'll be 27-years-old and playing a new position.  Could it spark a comeback?  With all these players, the issue is not whether you want them so much as what you have to pay for them.  In the early middle rounds of your draft or for around $20-$25, they're reasonable investment, but don't reach.  On the other hands, if one of them slips or can be had for under $20, get after him.

16. Matt LaPorta, CLE
17. Kila Ka'aihue, KCR
18. Justin Smoak, SEA
19. Daric Barton, OAK
20. James Loney, LAD

These players are defined by what I'd call "unrealized potential."  Matt LaPorta was the cornerstone in the C. C. Sabathia trade a few years back.  At the time he was presumed a future All-Star, but his performance thusfar has been frankly pathetic (596 OPS in 162 games).  He's still young.  Ka'aihue has hit at every minor-league level, but for some reason the Royals were reluctant to promote him.  Now, at age 27, he'll finally get a shot to prove himself, but the Eric Hosmer era is just on the horizon, so there's little room for error.  A year ago, everybody thought Smoak was "a sure thing," then he hit .218 in half a season with Texas and Seattle.  Still, he's a tailor-made post-hype sleeper.  Barton finally got a firm hold on the A's first base job last year, as many had long been expecting, but he still hasn't shown much power, and much of his "real" value comes from his OBP and his defense, neither of which shows up on most fantasy stat sheets.  Many predicted Loney to be a future batting champion after he hit .321 with a 915 OPS in his first two seasons (446 AB).  In the past three he's hit .279 with a 751 OPS (1759 AB) and patience is wearing thin in L.A.

As you can tell, this is why I have some skepticism about the depth of this year's first-base class.  There's plenty of talent in this tier and those that follow, but it is very, very unproven.

21. Brandon Allen, ARZ
22. Gaby Sanchez, FLA
23. Freddie Freeman, ATL
24. Ike Davis, NYM

Some will go a little gaga over Sanchez and Davis because they were considered Rookie of the Year candidates in 2010.  But, let's be honest, as far as fantasy first baseman go, their numbers sucked.

Sanchez: .273 AVG, 72 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB
Davis: .264 AVG, 73 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 3 SB

Base on their minor-league records, I'm not convinced either is going to rapidly improve.  If you're paying only a dollar or two, as you probably were last year, that's fine.  But for the $15+ you might need to pay this season, I'd rather wait and take a cheap flyer on one of this year's rookies.  Allen and Freeman are probably the best of the 2011 class.

26. Derrek Lee, BAL
27. Carlos Pena, CHC
28. Adam LaRoche, WAS
29. Lyle Overbay, TOR
30. Todd Helton, COL

Boring, boring, and more boring.  That said, each of these guys will end up outperforming several of the young players I've listed ahead of them.  They're basically 75 R, 20 HR, and 75 RBI in the bank (presuming health), but with potentially low averages.  That ain't great for a starting first-baseman, but then again, only 11 players did substantially better in 2010.  In a year light on "sure things," it might not be a bad idea to go boring with one of your low-end selections.

29. Mitch Moreland, TEX
30. Brett Wallace, HOU
31. Leslie Anderson, TBR
32. Brandon Belt, SFG
33. Chris Carter, OAK
34. Chris Davis, TEX
35. Yonder Alonso, CIN

The young player grab bag.  You know the deal.  Lots of upside.  No certainty.  No guaranteed playing time.  Moreland and Wallace get the upper hand only because they appear destined make Opening Day lineups.  Will they survive April?  That's harder to tell.

Where have all the sluggers gone? (Hot Stove Preview)

I'm going to assume that early reports that Hiroki Kuroda has signed a one-year, $12 Million contract to stay with the Dodgers are true.  If so, I think it's safe to say he gave them a home-town discount.  Kuroda was arguably the second-best starting pitcher on the market this winter.  With the exception of missing some time in 2009, Koruda has been extremely steady in the Dodger rotation over the last three seasons, posting a 3.60 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.  FanGraphs estimated his worth this past season at around $17 Million.  Even though he is 35, he probably could've sought at least two or three years at $8-$10 Million per, considering his recent performance and the relative sparsity of free agent pitchers this offseason.  Consider, as a comparable, that Randy Wolf got three years, $30 Million last season from Milwaukee.  

Wrapping up Koruda for less money than he made the last two seasons represents a minor coup for Ned Colletti, who will likely be cash-strapped again this winter, as the McCourt divorce doesn't seem anywhere near resolution.  The Dodgers are coming off a very disappointing season, but at least they have some stability in the rotation with Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw.  Colletti can concentrate solely on finding a middle-of-the-order presence to pair with Andre Ethier.  Considering his financial limitations, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he looks long and hard at potential trade targets like Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, and Dan Uggla.  Los Angeles possesses a notoriously deep farm system, though Colletti is unlikely to mortgage his top talents unless he believes it will bring the kind of bat (like Fielder) who makes the Dodgers immediate favorites in the NL West.

Here's my first look at some of the other names you're likely to hear a lot in the next month...

Premium Free Agents:

1. Cliff Lee (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: New York Yankees, Texas Rangers

In the last fifteen months, Cliff Lee has sure made up for all those years he spent being underrated in Cleveland.  Some went so far as to call him the best postseason pitcher in history after two straight impressive Octobers with the Phillies and Rangers.  Now he's primed to chase his friend and former teammate's mark for the largest average annual value in a multiyear contract for a starting pitcher.  Since he's already in his thirties, teams may be reluctant to give Lee more than five years, but they may very well offer close to $25 Million per season.  Also, although Lee is a talent any team would be interested in, several of the deepest pocketbooks this winter - Boston, Seattle, Detroit, etc. - aren't likely to chase pitching, which means it could come down to a bidding war between the Yankees and Rangers.

Hippeaux's Prediction: New York Yankees (6 Yrs./$140 Million)

2. Carl Crawford (Left Field)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox 

Crawford is in the pleasant position of being clearly the best hitter among a relatively thin class in the offseason following a severe league-wide offensive backslide.  Crawford is the perfect player for team preparing to compete in a "pitcher's era."  Not only is he a .300 hitter with decent power, but he is also an excellent baserunner and basestealer who is probably the best defender in the sport at his position.  He's not yet thirty, but Crawford has already played nine full seasons, and only once did he fail to top 140 games.  And, as if that weren't enough, he's reputed for his intangibles as well: a clubhouse leader in Tampa with a tireless work ethic and the charisma to illicit the same from his teammates.  The bidding will be steep.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Boston Red Sox (7 Yrs./$130 Million)

3. Jayson Werth (Right Field)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals

Crawford may be "The Perfect Storm," but Werth is hardly short on tools.  He's got power, speed, discipline, range, and an excellent throwing arm.  He's also coming off easily the best year of his career and will be 32 in May of next year.  There is reason to be cautious.  We may have just witnessed his peak.  That isn't to say that he won't be fairly productive for several more years, but the team that chooses to give him a nine-figure contract could soon find themselves with an Soriano-sized albatross.  And who, besides the Cubs, has a penchant for such signings?

Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (6 Yrs./$100 Million)

4. Adrian Beltre (Third Base)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians

Beltre has his best season since 2004 and was a legitimate candidate for the AL MVP, which made Theo Epstein look like a bit a genius for signing him to a one-year, $9 Million deal.  However, it may have served to make him even more of an enigma.  Was his relatively modest production during his five years in Seattle really just a product of the ballpark?  Is it possible he's one of those players who only steps it up during contract years?  Was he inspired by playing for a contender (just as he did in '04)?  There's no easy answer to these questions, which makes it hard to ante up for the 2010 Beltre (worth over $28 Million according to FanGraphs), when you may end up with the 2009 Beltre (worth less than $12 Million).  Somebody will gamble, but not for more than three years.  

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$45 Million)

5. Adam Dunn (First Base/DH)

Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals

Never has a player with five consecutive forty-homer season garnered so little interest as Adam Dunn did in 2009.  His pathetic outfield defense and his massive strikeout totals scared all the contenders away, forcing Dunn to accept a two-year, $20 Million deal with the Nationals, even though he was a 29-year-old slugger.  I would say, the hate was too great.  Dunn has since moved to first base and, in all likelihood, is headed to DH at some point in the near future.  All the while he's continued to hit moonshots.  76 of them during his two years in Washington.  Only Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder had more.  With power numbers falling around in the league, teams might have a little more patience for Dunn's limitations this offseason.  The Big Donkey is not without his charms.  He's basically unbreakable, having never missed more than ten games, since 2003.  And he has a career OBP of .381, which is better than Mark Teixeira ($181 Million) or Ryan Howard ($125 Million), among others.

As a little sidenote, with 354 homers entering the 2011 season, Dunn may be the first "untainted" player to reach the 500 HR plateau and not gain entrance to the Hall of Fame.  Dunn has never been connected to steroids, though he played through the tailend of that "era," and his utter consistency in the power department has discouraged those who are otherwise prone to aimless speculation.  However, he's only garnered MVP consideration twice (perhaps this year is the third?) and has never finished with more than four points (1%).  He's been named to just one All-Star team (2002).  He hasn't been awarded any noteworthy hardware.  And, despite his consistently stellar power numbers, he's never led the league in anything except walks (once) and strikeouts (thrice).  For me, it's hard to sell him as one of the best players in the history of the game.  But barring catastrophe, he's almost sure to join the 500 HR club sometime in the next five years (he'll probably be its 27th member).  That will make him a very hard case for Hall of Fame voters.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Texas Rangers (3 Yrs./$36 Million)

6. Victor Martinez (Catcher/First Base)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets

Matt Klaasen of Beyond the Box Score (among other things) recently released his Catcher Defense Rankings for the 2010 season.  To nobody's great surprise, V-Mart ranked near the bottom (#114 of 120, to be exact).  Being "better than Jorge Posada" may not be enough for Martinez's next employer, but V-Mart's value on the free agent market is much higher when tied to his ability to produce well above the standards for backstops.  To be fair, there are some things that Klassen's rankings cannot account for.  By all reports, V-Mart is a great field general, clubhouse leader, and game-caller.  Those things were certainly enough to keep marquee hitters like Posada, Jason Varitek, and Gary Carter behind the plate long after they stopped excelling at blocking balls and controlling the running game.  That said, I think it's in the best interests of V-Mart's next team to have a contingency plan, so I expect he won't be headed anywhere that has a long-range commitment at 1B and/or DH.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Detroit Tigers (4 Yrs./$50 Million)

7. Aubrey Huff (First Base/Outfield)

Top Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves

I'm a serious Huff fan.  I even went so far as to make his case for NL MVP this year.  But even I have to be a little wary of a 34-year-old with a history of back and knee injuries coming off a career year.  Huff looked fantastic in 2010.  He came to camp in great shape and showed no ill effects following his derailed '09 campaign.  He even played better than average defense at multiple positions and stole seven bases, the second highest total of his career.  Huff, who, to be honest, has been perennially underpaid, will cite these accomplishments and his playoff heroics while lobbying for the biggest contract of his career.  (His 3 Yr./$20 Million contract with Baltimore wasn't exactly a megadeal.)  So long as the buyer doesn't go much beyond that, I can't fault them.  The potential reward well outweighs the risk.

Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (3 Yrs./$25 Million)

8. Paul Konerko (First Base)

Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals

Um...ditto?

Like Huff, Konerko is coming off the best year in his long, very solid career, the last dozen seasons of which have been spent in Chicago.  He's a year older than Huff and has made about $50 Million more over the course of his career so far.  I see little reason for him to look for a change of scenery and the White Sox don't exactly have a stable of young sluggers waiting in the wings.  Konerko may even give the ChiSox a moderate hometown discount, especially if they're willing to work in some incentives and/or mutual option years.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$30 Million + mutual option)

9. Carl Pavano (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs

Note that it's a steep drop between the top starting pitchers on the market this winter, which only improves Cliff Lee's bargaining position.  I rate Pavano slightly ahead of Kuroda, de la Rosa, Jake Westbrook, and Javier Vazquez, but it's a really close call.  All have substantial risk with moderate upside.  Four things are working against all these guys.  1.) The really big-market clubs have their hearts set on Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, or hitters.  2.) Many mid-market franchises are running scared because of the obvious fiscal danger of signing middling free agent pitchers to lengthy contracts (see Suppan, Jeff; Silva, Carlos; etc.).  3.) Coming off "the year of the pitcher," fewer teams than usual are feeling pressed to make major changes in their rotations.  4.) Everybody and their mother has realized the importance of "young pitching," so teams are finding it easier to sell their fan bases on rookies like Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Minor, Kyle Drabek, and Brad Lincoln.

Having been one of those middling starters who got dramatically overpaid several year back, Pavano's probably not cursing the situation quite so much as his younger peers.

Hippeaux's Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (3 Yrs./$25 Million)

10. Jorge de la Rosa (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners

Jorge de la Rosa won't yet be 30 on Opening Day, which can be said of very, very few of the pitchers on the market this winter.  It's also very possible that we haven't yet seen the best of him.  His WHIP and his ERA have improved in each of the last four seasons, while his strikeout and walk rates have remained steady.  Also, he's been pitching in the very unfriendly confines of Coors Field.  One could certainly see how a desperate GM could talk himself into a lengthy, Gil Meche-type deal for southpaw.

On the other hand, de la Rosa has missed a lot of time.  He's managed 30+ starts only once, in '09.  He's had several stretches of brilliance, including the final six weeks of this year, but he's never been able to perform at that level for a whole season.  Maybe he never will.  If Jorge really wants to maximize his earnings in the long-term, he should probably take a one-year deal and prove he's the pitcher he looked like in August and September.  If he did that, he'd probably be looking at $40-$50 Million in the winter of 2011.  In not, he'll probably be setting for around $7 Million a year for the next three or four seasons.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago Cubs (4 Yrs./$35 Million) Just because I fully expect Jim Hendry to do something stupid this winter and it might as well be this.

Later in the week I'll take a look at the primary trade targets...

Notes on the Noughties

During the last few weeks the baseball media has been dominated by discussions of All-Decade rankings for players and teams. These discussions are, of course, founded upon an arbitrary window, which means they can lead to some odd conclusions. For instance, it has been generally accepted that Player of the Decade consideration comes down to A-Rod and Pujols, both of whom are certainly legitimate choices. However, imagine if we were including Barry Bonds' final two campaigns in the late '90s, or even had he been allowed to continue playing for two more seasons in his mid-forties (seasons which Bud Selig robbed from fans, a sin for which the commissioner should never be forgiven).

Bonds would, of course, lead Pujols and A-Rod in the vast majority of ratios and advanced metrics (OBP, SLG, OPS, WAR, Win Shares, etc.) and would be near the top in several counting categories as well (HR, BB, R, etc.). At the very least, it would have to be considered a three-horse race. A similar assumption can be made about Greg Maddux, who, despite retiring prior to the 2009 season, is still among the top ten starting pitchers of the decade in wins, starts, and innings, among other things.

However, despite the fact that All-Decade debates are purely academic, they operate as a mode for appreciating the recent history of the sport we love and, as such, are an enjoyable aspect of this Hot Stove season. As my contribution, I would like to levy praise upon a few people who have been under-represented in the All-Decade articles I've read so far. Most of these guys aren't worthy of being considered in the greatest players of the decade discussions at any position. In some cases, far from it. But their contributions nonetheless made an impact on the game and its fans, and in many cases, helped to define the way baseball was evolving in the decade of the 2000s.

Innings-Eater of the Decade: Livan Hernandez

The defining rotations of the 1990s were composed of three- and four-headed monsters: Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz in Atlanta; Nagy, Hershiser, & Martinez in Cleveland; and the revolving door of free agent Aces who joined with Andy Pettitte in the Bronx (Clemens, Cone, Wells, Gooden, Rogers, & El Duque). I'm not sure that the "innings-eating" #3 starter was purely an invention of the Noughties, but teams certainly valued such pitchers more than ever before. Jeff Suppan and Carlos Silva netted nearly $50 Million apiece on the promise of fulfilling that role. Jamie Moyer appears prepared to pitch into his fifties in that capacity. But for me, the quintessential innings-eater is Livan Hernandez.

Too often this decade, organizations like the Giants and Expos asked him to be their Ace and that was not his calling, but Livan Hernandez gobbles up innings at a rate unprecedented in the contemporary era. From 2000 until 2006, he never pitched less than 216 innings in a season, topping out at 255 in 2004. Three times he led the league in innings, twice in complete games, and four times in hits allowed. This decade he threw a total of 2201 innings, 38 more than his closest competitor (Javier Vazquez). In the process he went 129-124 and maintained essentially a league-average ERA (4.46). Only Roy Halladay accumulated more complete games.

Best Season: Expos 2003 (15-10, 3.20 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 178 K, 233 IP, 8 CG, 3.12 K/BB)

LOOGY of the Decade: Steve Kline & Ray King

The "left-handed one-out guy" got a fair amount of play in Michael Lewis's Moneyball and can safely be counted among the major innovations of the contemporary era, the credit going usually to Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan. And whether they discovered the LOOGY or not, they certainly possessed the most effective implementation of it, when, in 2004, on their way to 105 wins and the NL Championship with the Cardinals, they employed two LOOGYs, Steve Kline and Ray King, who combined for 153 appearances and 112 innings. King and Kline completely shut down opposing left-handed sluggers, allowing one lonely homer during the entire season and an opponent's OPS under 450.

Both King and Kline had relatively prolonged careers in this capacity. From 2001 to 2007 King made at least 67 appearances every year and maintained a 3.52 ERA. From 2000 to 2007 Kline made at least 66 appearances every year and maintained a 3.32 ERA. They rank #9 and #11 in relief appearances over the course of the decade, combining for 1173 appearances and 889 innings. But 2004 was the best for each.

Best Season: 2004 Cardinals (Kline: 1.79 ERA, King: 2.61 ERA)

TTO of the Decade: Adam Dunn

The "Three True Outcomes" hitter was another topic of discussion in Moneyball, referring to players who ended the vast majority of their at-bats with either a strikeout, a walk, or a home run. In the "Juiced Ball" era, such players were valuable, despite the high number of "unproductive outs" they were prone to make.

49.1% of all of Adam Dunn's plate appearances ended in one of those outcomes. Compare that to a more traditional RBI man like Mark Texeira, whose TTO rate is 33.9% or a more extreme opposing example like Albert Pujols, whose TTO is just 28.7%, despite the fact that he has similar homer and walk rates.

Dunn led the league in strikeouts on three occasions in the Noughties. He led in walks once. Most importantly, he had a truly impressive run of five straight 40 HR seasons, which ended last year, when he hit "merely" 38.

Best Season: 2004 Reds (46 HR, 108 BB, 195 K, 102 RBI, 105 R, 956 OPS, 51.2% TTO)

WAR-rior of the Decade: Franklin Gutierrez

The Wins Above Replacement statistic has become a favored metric of sabermetricians in recent years. It, like Bill James' Win Shares, attempts to balance offensive production with defensive efficiency and positional scarcity. The names at the top of the list usually aren't too surprising - Pujols, Mauer, Utley, etc. - but the performance of Franklin Gutierrez has continued to defy projections.

Over the last three seasons, the performance of the Mariners 26-year-old centerfielder went from 1.8 wins above replacement t0 5.9, ranking him twelfth among all hitters in 2009. Base on FanGraphs tabulations, that means Gutierrez is worth somewhere in the vicinity of $20 Million a year, even though in 2009, he made the league minimum.

Obviously, Gutierrez's performance is based largely on his off-the-charts defensive ratings. His only comparable is Andruw Jones in his prime. This coming arbitration season will be interesting on many accounts (Tim Lincecum, anybody?), not the least of which is whether Gutierrez's agent can make a case for a large award based on the new evolutions in defensive analytics.

Best Season: 2009 Mariners (.283 AVG, 18 HR, 85 RBI, 764 OPS, 27.1 UZR, 5.9 WAR)

Most Underrated Pitcher: Mark Buehrle

I was listening to a Baseball Today podcast earlier this week as they discussed their All-Decade selections and Eric Karabell and Peter Pascarelli scoffed when a listener suggested that Mark Buehrle might be part of the All-Decade rotation. I will admit, he's probably borderline, but if you don't think he's in the running, you haven't been paying attention. Only Livan Hernandez and Javier Vazquez threw more innings during the 2000s, despite the fact that Buehrle was just 20 when the decade began. Among pitcher who pitched in every season of the 2000s, he ranks eighth in ERA at 3.80. He's won 135 games during that span, also good for eighth. And has been the picture of consistency.

From 2001 to 2009 Mark Buehrle never made less than 30 starts. He has five seasons of 15+ wins and has netted double-digit wins in every year. He ERA has risen above the league average only once, in his rough 2006 campaign (12-13, 4.99), and on many occasions he has been among the league leaders (as low as 3.12 in 2005). He has a World Series ring, a Gold Glove, four All-Star nods, and, of course, a no-hitter and a perfect game.

Best Season: 2005 White Sox (16-8, 3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 149 K, 237 IP, 3.73 K/BB)

Most Underrated Hitter: Bobby Abreu

His performance in this year's ALDS went a long way towards raising people's awareness, but Abreu's extraordinary performance this decade was often overshadowed by his teammates in Philadelphia and the Bronx. Abreu got to the plate more times than anybody in baseball during the 2000s and he finished in the top ten in hits (#8), runs (#5), RBI (#10), stolen bases (#6), walks (#2), and OBP (#8). He was a 30/30 man twice and a 20/20 man in every season except '06 (15/30), '07 (16/25), and '09 (15/30).

Best Season: 2004 Phillies (.301 AVG, 118 R, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 40 SB, 971 OPS)

Most Underrated Fielder: Pedro Feliz

I'm certainly open to debating whether a man who has never posted an OPS of 800+ is worthy of being a major-league starter at the hot corner, as Feliz has been for most of the decade. I will strongly contend, however, that Feliz is one of the smoothest and most impressive glovemen to ever play that position. He fields the barehanded dribbler better than anybody I've ever seen, ranges well in all directions, and has a canon for an arm. Thankfully, the stats back me up. Over the course of the decade he compiled a UZR of 76.4 and a UZR/150 of 15.5. Here's how that compares to other third basemen from the top ten in games played during this decade.

UZR/150:

Pedro Feliz 15.5

Scott Rolen 15.5

Adrian Beltre 13.9

Brandon Inge 6.9

Mike Lowell -0.2

Aramis Ramirez -1.5

Alex Rodriguez -2.2

Melvin Mora -2.8

Chipper Jones -3.3

Troy Glaus -5.4

As you can see, Feliz deserves to be ranked on equal footing with Rolen and Beltre as the best defenders of the decade at their position, leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the field. That Feliz did not win a Gold Glove, while David Wright and Mike Lowell did, is among this decade's significant injustices.

Best Season: 2007 Giants (20 HR, 72 RBI, 708 OPS, 22.3 UZR, 2.8 WAR)

The Sporting Hippeaux's All-Decade Team:

C - Joe Mauer

1B - Albert Pujols

2B - Chase Utley

3B - Alex Rodriguez

SS - Miguel Tejada (This isn't just because I hate Jeter, stats back me up.)

LF - Barry Bonds

CF - Carlos Beltran

RF - Ichiro Suzuki

DH - David Ortiz

SP - Roy Halladay

SP - Randy Johnson

SP - Johan Santana

SP - Pedro Martinez

SP - C. C. Sabathia

RP - Mariano Rivera

RP - Billy Wagner

RP - Trevor Hoffman

RP - Francisco Rodriguez

RP - Joe Nathan

Honorable Mentions:

C - Victor Martinez

1B/3B - Carlos Delgado

2B/SS - Derek Jeter

OF - Vladimir Guerrero

OF - Andruw Jones

Vote For Kung Fu Panda

As I mentioned when I wrote up my preview last week, I don't envy Joe Maddon and Charlie Manuel. There are far more deserving candidates this season than there are roster spots for the All-Star game, even when you include the expanded pitching staff and the vote-in guys. The job is made even more difficult by the fact that the fans voted in Dustin Pedroia (whose 761 OPS ranks him as 8th out of the eleven AL second-basemen with 225 or more plate appearances) and Josh Hamilton (who has spent almost the entire first half on the D.L. and didn't play particularly well when he wasn't there).  And the players added a few likable veterans who are having decent seasons, but probably aren't the best choices.  I'm thinking of Michael Young, Orlando Hudson, and Ryan Zimmerman.  

One bit of good news. Charlie Manuel will essentially get two more chances to do right, since Carlos Beltran and Raul Ibanez, both deserving candidates, are unlikely to be healthy enough to participate.

Top 5 Snubs:

1.) Pablo Sandoval - 3B/1B/C - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda isn't just blossoming into a fan-favorite in the bay area, he is undeniably one of the ten or twelve best hitters in the N.L. this season.  He is fourth in the league in batting average (.332) and ninth in OPS (958).  And, among N.L. third-basemen (his primary position this season), he is the cream of the crop.  Here are his stats compared to David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman:

Sandoval - .332/.386/.564, 37 R, 12 HR, 44 RBI, 59.3 RC

Wright - .326/.414/.470, 51 R, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 59.7 RC

Zimmerman - .293/.361/.479, 55 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 53.1 RC

There are two things, however, which make Sandoval a more deserving candidate, beyond his impressive statistics.  First of all, he's been asked to play three different positions (and he hits regardless of where he plays).  Wouldn't that versatility (and that catcher eligibility) be valuable on a roster than is currently carrying four first-baseman and only two catchers?  And, most importantly in my mind, while Zimmerman's surge may have much to do with the addition of Adam Dunn (more on that later) and Wright has, despite the Mets rash of injuries, been surrounded by guys like Carlos Beltran, Gary Sheffield, and Jose Reyes for most of the year, Sandoval really is an island.  The Giants team OPS is 704, 15th in the N.L., compared to 740 for the Mets (6th) and 743 for the Nationals (5th).  Sandoval leads his team in AVG., OPS,  
OBP., SLG., H, 2B, HR, TB, RBI, and BB.  His lineup protection is Bengie Molina (706 OPS) and a carousel of guys like Travis Ishikawa, Andres Torres, and Nate Schierholtz.  The Giants, even with their spectacular pitching, simply would not be contenders if it wasn't for his monster season thusfar.  To me, that screams All-Star.

2.) Jered Weaver - SP - Los Angeles Angels

I'm as happy as anybody to see Tim Wakefield making his first All-Star appearance, but, really, it comes at Weaver's expense. He is by far the best pitcher left off the AL roster. The numbers are good (9-3, 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 95 K, 114 IP), but the other part of the story, as with Sandoval, is that the Angels would be nowhere near first place without him. When the Angels rotation (and roster, generally) was decimated by injuries early in the season, Weaver rose to the occasion and demonstrated the maturity of an Ace, something that many of us have been expected from him for the last couple years. He consistently went deep into games and ended losing streaks.  In seventeen starts Weaver has failed to go six inning only four times (never less than five) and has gone seven or more inning ten times, including three complete games (which ties him for 2nd most in MLB).  He deserves this accolade more than several of the pitchers who were chosen.

3.) Yovani Gallardo & Trevor Hoffman - SP & RP - Milwaukee Brewers

Yes, the Brewers are already represented by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but the fact is, nobody thought the Brewers would be anywhere near contenders this season, not because they didn't believe Prince and the Hebrew Hammer would be doing exactly what they're doing, but because they lost their three most valuable pitchers from last year's Wild Card winner: C. C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and Salomon Torres.  Gallardo (8-5, 2.75 ERA, 114 K, 1.15 WHIP) and Hoffman (18/19 SV, 1.93 ERA) have at least slightly ameliorated the sting of those losses and the Brew Crew is currently one game out of first place.  I know the math wouldn't allow for both of them to make the team.  But, I'll put it this way: Fuck Jason Marquis.

4.) Adam Dunn - OF - Washington Nationals

The Nats are the worst team in baseball, so, there wasn't much chance of them getting two representatives.  So, when Zimmerman was voted in by the players, Dunn was plum out of luck.  Although, somehow, Charlie Manuel decided that Christian Guzman deserved a place on the Final Vote ballot more than Dunn.  Dunn is very quietly having a career year, making many franchises who passed on him over the winter look a little silly.  He's currently on pace for 44 HR and 119 RBI, right in line with his usual totals, but he's also hitting 20 points above his career average.  Zimmerman has already nearly equaled his total output from 2008 and much of his production has to do with the fact that Dunn is hitting behind him.  

5.) Ian Kinsler - 2B - Texas Rangers

Kinsler just missed being elected by the fans, as a Boston bias prompted him to get passed in the final week, and he still has a chance to get in on the Final Vote. And, I would agree that if Maddon could only afford one more second-baseman (besides Pedroia), Aaron Hill was the right choice (Hill was added to the roster by his fellow players). Nonetheless, Kinsler is quite worthy among AL 2B, with 19 HR (2nd), 59 R (2nd), and 51 RBI (2nd) in the first half, as well as 16 SB (2nd) and an 825 OPS (2nd). Adding to his well-known offensive attributes is that fact that he's made significant strides on defense, leading the AL in Range Factor and second to Placido Polanco in Ultimate Zone Rating.

Honorable Mentions: Jermaine Dye - RF - Chicago White Sox, Scott Rolen - 3B - Toronto Blue Jays, Adam Lind - DH - Toronto Blue Jays, Zack Duke - SP - Pittsburgh Pirates, Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks

Top 5 Duds:

1.) Jason Marquis & Tim Wakefield - SP - Colorado Rockies & Boston Red Sox

I pair these two, not because they are anything alike as players or individuals (i.e. I like Wakefield), but because both were added based largely on gaudy win totals which were accumulated due to a significant amount of good fortune.  Both have been solid pitchers, but not All-Star caliber.  Wakefield's 4.30 ERA is good for only 27th in the A.L. (among starting pitchers) and Marquis' 3.61 is 21st in the N.L.  Add to that their abyssmal K/BB rates and their outstanding run support (8.85 R/9 for Wakefield [1st among pitchers in the A.L. with 100 IP], 6.67 R/9 for Marquis [6th in N.L.]) and we get a much more accurate sense of their seasons.   

2.) Hunter Pence - RF - Houston Astros

I don't know what to make of the fact that he was selected by his fellow players.  It is possible that they have seen something that I haven't.  Here's a point of contention:

A .302/.370/.492 - 44 R, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 8 SB

B .295/.344/.464 - 34 R, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 2 SB

C .270/.402/.526 - 43 R, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB

Player A is Hunter Pence.  Player B is Carlos Lee.  And Player C is Lance Berkman.  All three are having very similar seasons, but Lee and Berkman have much more star power and much longer track records of success.  What makes Pence a better choice to represent the Astros? Here's another comparison:

A .302/.370/.492 - 44 R, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 8 SB

B .266/.425/.546 - 38 R, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 0 SB

C .305/.369/.474 - 43 R, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 19 SB

D .263/.364/.491 - 56 R, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 11 SB

Again, A is Pence.  B is Dunn, C is Matt Kemp, and D is Jayson Werth.  It would appear to me that B, C, and D are all at least equal to A, probably superior, especially when you factor in that Kemp and Werth are better defenders.  Dunn is definitely the biggest star in the group, while Werth and Kemp both play for more successful franchises.  I just can't figure out what Pence is doing which commands so much support from his peers.  Perhaps his awkwardness just makes him more memorable.

3.) Michael Young - 3B - Texas Rangers

To begin with, one could argue that there are three guys on his own team - Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Kevin Millwood - who are more deserving. Mort importantly, there are at least two guys at his position who are obviously better choices. It isn't that Young is having a bad year, offensively, it's just that Brandon Inge and Scott Rolen are have demonstrably better seasons both at the plate and in the field, where Young has been especially putrid (-11.3 UZR, last in MLB).

4.) Brian Fuentes - RP - Los Angeles Angels

Maybe it says somewhere in a little black book that the manager's receive that the league leader in saves must be selected. Because, with the exception of that tidbit, which is largely due to the propensity of chances in Anaheim (remember that record-breaking performance by K-Rod last season), Fuentes hasn't been all that great.  He's pitched the fewest inning of any closer who was selected and his ERA (3.38) is more than half-a-run higher than the next All-Star closer (Broxton, 2.72). Certainly not as good as guys like David Aardsma (17/18, 1.41), George Sherrill (18/21, 2.43), and Joakim Soria (13/15, 1.66). And that's just to name some relievers. One might also argue that Fuentes' spot could've been more appropriately used on, say, his teammate, Jered Weaver, who has a significantly better ERA, despite pitching quadruple the innings.

5.) Freddy Sanchez - 2B - Pittsburgh Pirates

Part of his selection was All-Star math.  The Pirates needed to be represented.  But, in my opinion, Zack Duke is having a hell of a season (8-7, 3.28), certainly better than Jason Marquis, probably better than Francisco Cordero as well.  Could've bumped one of them and made room for Mark Reynolds, Pablo Sandoval, or Brandon Phillips.  Again, it isn't that Sanchez has been bad, it is just that he offers very little besides a high average (.316).  He doesn't hit for power or drive in runs, he doesn't steal bases, and he doesn't play particularly strong defense (which is the one quality that Orlando Hudson has over him).  

Dishonorable Mentions: Josh Hamilton - CF - Texas Rangers, Dustin Pedroia - 2B - Boston Red Sox, Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals