R.I.P. 2010 Cardinals?

In one of the first crucial series of September, the Rockies pulled off a four-game sweep over the Reds, who were the top team in the NL when the week began.  Cincinnati's five-game losing streak could have breathed new life into the second-place Cardinals, had they managed to capitalize on their softer schedule, but they managed to lose two out of three against the Brewers, and with 23 games remaining, the Reds magic number is 19, lowest in the National League, and the Cardinals have slid to 5.5 games (and, perhaps more importantly, three teams) back in the Wild Card.

This is not an insurmountable margin, certainly, and the Redbirds got off to a good start in their weekend series against the Wild Card leaders, the Braves, who have also scuffled lately.  But with San Francisco and Colorado playing well, the race for playoff berths has become a jumbled one and it is difficult to see a scenario where at least three of the six NL clubs who are ahead of St. Louis go into the tank.  Also, sad as it is for me to say, it is hard for me to see this club as capable of mounting the late-season blitzkrieg necessary to overcome that margin.  On May 3rd the Cardinals beat the Phillies to move to 18-8 and secure there largest lead of the season, five games.  Since then, they are 55-57, a thoroughly mediocre team, and in recent weeks they've been even worst, winning only five of their last fifteen contests, including series losses to Pittsburgh, Washington, Houston, and Milwaukee.  When you can't beat those teams in September, it's time to throw in the towel and start talking about what went wrong.

In March I believed it would be the Brewers who won the NL Central.  In retrospect, it was one of my sillier predictions of the preseason.  I did contend, however, that the Reds "could become a version of the '08 Rays" and, most presciently, I was compelled to predict that St. Louis would suffer from their apparent lack of depth.  "Playing without a parachute at several positions" was perhaps the most succinct description of the Cardinals flaws.

What has happened has been, in fact, rather more egregious than I would have expected.  The Cardinals key quartet - Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainwright, and Jaime Garcia - are all in the running for their league's highest individual honors, yet even they could not carry the lead balloon which is the remainder of the St. Louis roster.  The front three in the Cardinals starting rotation have won 45 games.  Nobody else on the St. Louis roster has won more than six.  And, to the even greater humiliation of the remaining roster, that six-game winner is the Cardinals closer, Ryan Franklin.

On offense, St. Louis faces a similar problem.  In limited playing time, Jon Jay, Colby Rasmus, and David Freese have all been respectable, but the rest of the Cardinals roster is filled with players with sub-700 OPSs.  Second-baseman, Skip Schumaker (672 OPS), and catcher, Yadier Molina (655 OPS), have been disappointing, but not nearly so much as the rotating cast of career minor-leaguers, defensive replacements, and other team's crumbs who have manned the left side of the Cardinal infield.  Following a season-ending injury to Freese, the Cardinals handed third to veteran utility-man Felipe Lopez (638 OPS).  When he failed, they picked up Astros castaway Pedro Feliz (528).  The result: since May 30th, the Cardinals have gotten one, that's right, one lonely homer from the hot corner.  That actually looks fairly good compared to what they've gotten from Brendan Ryan (563 OPS), the St. Louis shortstop who holds the dubious honor of being the least productive player in the National League.  Out of the 91 players who have been handed 400+ plate appearance so far in 2010, he ranks dead last in Hits, OPS, OBP, and SLG.  He's 90th in batting average, 89th in RBI, and 87th in Runs and HR.

To sum things up, here's a look at the production the Cardinals get from 1B (a.k.a. Albert Pujols) compared to what they get combined from 3B & SS.

Albert Pujols: .311/.403/.590, 137 G, 522 AB, 99 R, 162 H, 36 HR, 102 RBI, 83 BB, 65 K
3B & SS: .241/.309/.334, 274 G, 1011 AB, 122 R, 246 H, 13 HR, 98 RBI, 91 BB, 189 K

In the second half things have gotten even worse for their offense. Since the All-Star Break, only Pujols and Holliday have more than 20 RBI.  Only Pujols and Holliday have hit more than 3 HR.  Only Pujols, Holliday, and Randy Winn have managed to keep their OPS above 780.  It's not hard to imagine how opposing managers might strategize.  Since the break, eleven of Prince Albert's sixteen homers are solo shots.  Seven of Holliday nine have come with either the bases empty or just Albert standing at first base.    Unsurprisingly, the rank first and second on the team in free passes.  Clearly, opposing teams are not pitching to the dynamic duo in situation where they can put a game out of reach.

Sadly, the Cardinals now face a scenario not unlike that which derailed the once-promising Cubs, just over a year ago.  Having won the division in '09, the Cards were heavily favored to win it again in 2010.  Most believed that this was a team designed to go deep in October.  At the Inside Pulse roundtable in March, I was the only one of six contributers who didn't pick them to win the division.  This was supposed to be "their year."  But their season was not derailed by particularly bad luck.  They did not have a rash of key injuries.  In the form of Jaime Garcia and Jon Jay, in fact, they even had a couple of pleasant surprises.

Basically, this team isn't good enough as it's currently constituted.  With a payroll approaching $95 Million, that's a problem.  John Mozeliak has some tough negotiations in his future.  At the end of the season, Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan will once again be free agents.  They've had an amazing tenure in St. Louis, but in recent years have had some vocal disputes with the front office.  This offseason there will be openings in L.A., Chicago, and Atlanta, maybe elsewhere.  Could they be persuaded to take on a new challenge?

In truth, piloting the Dodgers may be less challenging than nursing this Cardinals roster.  If the Cardinals had gone to the World Series this year, as many expected, I think it is safe to say LaRussa and Pujols would have both taken extensions this offseason.  But the failure to qualify for the playoffs and the uncertainty regarding LaRussa's tenure may convince Albert that he needs to test the free agent market in the offseason of 2011.  For St. Louis fans, that's a nightmare akin to Lebron's exodus, and it would almost certainly precipitate the departure of Yadier Molina and Chris Carpenter when their contracts expire the following year.  The window is closing on this incarnation of Cardinals.  In an effort to pry it open for a few more years, Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt are going to need to be willing to resort to drastic measure this offseason.

Offseason Prospectus #27: The St. Louis Cardinals

If you want to know how crazy innovative Tony La Russa really is, check out this article from the Riverfront Times in 2004.  Like any steadfast progressive, La Russa has laid a few eccentric eggs.  But, that said, it is becoming increasingly difficult to argue against his case for greatest manager of all time.  MLB Network's "Prime 9" ranked him at #4, behind Casey Stengel, Joe McCarthy, and John McGraw.  But, of those three, only Stengel managed after integration (most of my readers know, I don't dignify much that happened prior to 1947), none of them managed during the free agent era, and all of them had the luxury of managing the most profitable and talent-laden franchise in the league for the bulk of their careers (the Yankees for McCarthy and Stengel, the New York Giants for McGraw).

La Russa has certainly had his fair share of talent, having managed Pujols, Rickey Henderson, Dave Parker, Eckersley, McGwire, Canseco, etc., but he's also guided his share of overachieving franchises, most notably the '06 Champs.  The Cardinals, which La Russa has managed since 1996 certainly aren't the stingiest team in the league, but they've never had a payroll over $100 Million (according to Cot's Contracts). In fourteen seasons under La Russa, they've made eight playoff appearance and have only three losing campaigns.  La Russa currently trails only Joe Torre and Bobby Cox in playoff appearances, and, of course, we know each of them to have been blessed with significantly larger budgets.

La Russa, alongside the other greats of his generation (especially Torre and Cox) has succeeded by being a "players manager."  Former players like Eckersley and McGwire speak of him in reverential tones.  And, of course, he and longtime pitching coach, Dave Duncan, are responsible for a long list of pitching Renaissances, including Eckersley, Chris Carpenter, Woody Williams, Tom Seaver, Joel Pineiro, Jeff Suppan, Mike Moore, and the late, great Daryl Kile, to name just a few.  Many also credit La Russa and Duncan with revolutionizing the use of situational relievers, especially the LOOGY.

His most recent attack on conventional wisdom, moving the pitcher into the eighth spot in the lineup, hasn't caught on particularly quickly.  Ned Yost picked it up in Milwaukee, briefly, in 2008.  Shortly thereafter, he got fired.  I haven't seen a whole lot of material evidence for or against the move, but I appreciate the logic, separating the "easy out" from the statistical haymaker known as Albert Pujols.

I could go on, but for now I will simply recommend Buzz Bissinger's lovely book, Three Nights in August, and add that La Russa's case could get dramatically better with another championship.  He would join Torre and Sparky Anderson as the only men in the free agents era with more than two, and Torre as the only man in the free agent era with six or more pennants.

In '09 I expected the Cardinals to make a deep playoff run.  It didn't happen, but all the pieces which inspired that prediction are still in place.  St. Louis has a lethal one-two punch at the top of the rotation, serious thunder in the middle of the order,  a fairly deep bullpen, and a nice infusion of youth.  My only hesitancy, one expressed frequently in these pages, is fueled by their lack of depth.  Prince Albert has proven himself nigh invincible, but the same cannot be said of many of the other Cardinal regulars.  If John Mozeliak doesn't make a few more "inventory" moves in the coming months, La Russa and his staff will need to invest in every rabbit's foot, dreamcatcher, and four-leaf clover they can get their hands on.

The Season For Suits: NL Central

It wasn't that long ago that the offseason work of baseball's General Managers was confined to about an eight-week stretch, running from the Winter Meetings sometime around the beginning of December to the end of January. But in recent years, it seems, their work begins even before the playoffs are over (Atlanta has apparently resigned Tim Hudson, both Houston and Cleveland have announced new managers) and extends deep into Spring Training (at the beginning of 2009, you may recall, several key players - Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, etc. - didn't sign until after pitchers and catchers had reported). In a series of "Season For Suits" articles, I hope to preview what you can expect over the next five months from your favorite well-dressed men who act as baseball's middle management. I begin, for no particular reason, in the NL Central:

THE CONTENDERS:

St. Louis Cardinals (John Mozeliak)

Mozeliak inherited the GM role from the very popular Walt Jocketty and, as such, was faced with some early criticism from those who expected he would never be able to fill Jocketty's shoes. The Cardinals success in 2009 should quiet his critics, if only for a time. Mozeliak greatly improved his squad over the course of the season, acquiring Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, John Smoltz, and Julio Lugo, seemingly perfectly positioning the Cards for a run deep into the postseason. Although it didn't work out that way, Cards fans have to be very proud of the team their organization fielded for them.

Unfortunately, Mozeliak won't have any time to rest on his laurels. He already accomplished his first order of business, wrapping up Tony LaRussa for another year, putting to rest rumors that the legendary manager was feuding with the organization and considering a move. Now, there is the question of personnel, starting with those guys he signed in July and August. Holliday, DeRosa, and Smoltz are all headed to free agency, as are Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel, and Joel Pineiro, leaving St. Louis with more unanswered questions than either of their primary rivals, the Cubs and the Brewers. At the very least, between now and April they will need to designate a left-fielder, a third-baseman, and two starting pitchers. They have promised to actively pursue resigning Holliday. If they could accomplish that, they could probably get away with an in-house solution at third, as David Freese tore up Triple-A and looked good in his September audition. But if Holliday, who will likely have two suitors in New York and one in Boston, proves too expensive, Mozeliak's winter could be very challenging.

As usual, the Cardinals will look for inexpensive reclamation projects to send to Dave Duncan's school for thirty-something castaways. Smoltz may be interested in attending a second semester and Braden Looper looks like he could use a refresher course after a significantly down performance in Milwaukee. Other good matches include Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Justin Duchscherer, and Carl Pavano.

Chicago Cubs (Jim Hendry)

High expectations going into the season overshadowed the fact that the Cubs accomplished something they had not done since 1972, securing at least three consecutive winning seasons. Last winter, Hendry made two major acquisitions, Kevin Gregg and Milton Bradley. Both were unmitigated disasters in 2009, while the very popular Mark DeRosa, sent to Cleveland for prospects, ended the season on the Division Champion Cardinals.

There weren't many bright spots for the Cubs this season. Derrek Lee had his best season since 2005. Randy Wells contended for Rookie of the Year. Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, and Ryan Dempster all pitched fairly well, but all missed time with injuries, and none won more than twelve games.

The good news is, the Cubs have a lot of talent signed for next year. It's expensive talent and, this season at least, it was underperforming talent. But the odds would suggest that they will be better in 2010, even if they just stand pat. The only significant free agent they stand to lose is Rich Harden. Assuming the new ownership has pockets as deep as what Hendry has grown accustomed to, he will have some serious flexibility for pursuing his needs. He will have to decide whether to prioritize center field, second base, the back-end of the rotation, or middle-inning relief. In each and every case, the Cubs have modest in-house options (Kosuke Fukudome, Mike Fontenot, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeff Samardzija, etc.), so Hendry shouldn't be pressured if ideal candidates don't present themselves. He needs to resist the temptation to add more big, bad contracts to the collection the Cubs have already stockpiled.

As a Cubs fan, I can say I would really like to see them reel in a true center-fielder, but there aren't many on the market. Mike Cameron might make a good fit, if they could sign him to a one-year deal (with an option). A relatively cheap, defense-oriented guy like Coco Crisp might also be tempting.

Late in the season everybody assumed that the Cubs would dump the unpopular Bradley prior to next season, but the signing of hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo may indicate that they are considering giving the highly-talented switch-hitter a second chance. Certainly, his value on the trade market has never been lower.

Milwaukee Brewers (Doug Melvin)

The Brewers have been, over the last five years, one of the best run franchises in the league, and they enter 2010 with many solid pieces in place. However, Melvin's window for chasing a championship with the current core of players won't be open for a whole lot longer. The Brewers best player, Prince Fielder, will be a free agent after 2011, as will Rickie Weeks, J. J. Hardy, and Dave Bush, followed by Corey Hart in 2012.

From my perspective, it looks like the time is now. The only hole in the Brewers lineup going into 2010 is center-field, where Mike Cameron is becoming a free agent. Cameron loves Milwaukee and is a popular clubhouse presence, so re-upping is hardly out of the question. They may also consider promoting somebody like Lorenzo Cain or Chris Duffy.

The point is, Melvin needs to focus his attention this offseason on pitching. Things are not as bad as they seem. Although the Brewers were last in the National League in rotational ERA this season, they will enter 2010 with a healthy David Bush and (hopefully) Chris Capuano. Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, and Carlo Villanueva will all have an additional year under their belts. Several prospects, most notably Jeremy Jeffress, are rising rapidly through the ranks. And, for what it's worth, they still have Jeff Suppan.

What the Brewers really need (as C. C. Sabathia proved in 2008) is a veteran workhorse to insert into the front of their rotation, taking the pressure off Gallardo, especially, and everybody on down. Easier said than done, right? There aren't a whole lot of those pitcher in the game and John Lackey is the only one on the free agent market this season. As a Boras client, he's probably out of their price range.

However, what Milwaukee does have is a plethora of young talent, both major-league ready and in the lower rungs of the system. As it stands, Weeks, Hardy, Casey McGehee, Alcides Escobar, and Mat Gamel will be fighting for three starting positions on the infield. Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy may be ready to share major-league catching duties as soon as next spring. Scouts around baseball are fawning over the raw skills of Jeffress, Brett Lawrie, and Cutter Dykstra. Melvin could part with two or three top prospects (and other couple middle-tier guys) without totally gutting the system, and that might be all it takes to land Roy Halladay.

Run, River, Run

The St. Louis Cardinals are 15-6 (.714) since the acquisition of Matt Holliday, who, by the way, is hitting .453 with 22 RBI and a 1257 OPS in the National League. You know who else has been pretty good? Julio Lugo. Manny Ramirez's former sidekick is hitting .354 with a 987 OPS. He's made one error in his first ten games. And Mark DeRosa. He's hit eight homers and driven in fifteen runs since the All-Star Break. The team has won every one of Joel Pineiro last eight starts, during which time he has a 2.91 ERA.

What do all these players have in common? They were all acquired via trade by the Cardinal's relatively new GM, John Mozeliak.

Sure, the Cards also still have some guys from that Championship team in 2006: the Ace, Chris Carpenter, his protege, Adam Wainwright, the immovable backstop, Yadier Molina, and, of course, the Machine, Mr. Pujols. You get the picture. Mozeliak didn't exactly start with an empty canvas. But he has, with the rather extraordinary help of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan, turned what was likely a borderline playoff team into a legitimate contender.

For the past two seasons he, LaRuss, Duncan, and Marty Mason have assembled a piecemeal bullpen from career minor leaguers and other team's castoffs. Currently, the St. Louis 'pen is home to seven guys who make less than six million dollars combined. Or, to put that in perspective, they make $2.5 Million less than K-Rod does by himself. That 36-year-old desperation closer, Ryan Franklin, who Mozeliak signed to an inexpensive three-year contract before last season, has saved 29 games, blown just one, and has a ridiculous 1.17 ERA. The bullpen has a respectable 3.96 ERA on the season and has been even better since the All-Star break.

Sure, Mozeliak has had a few clunkers - Khalil Greene and Troy Glaus come to mind - but he has been aggressive, his mistakes have been relatively rare and, more importantly, cheap, and he has regained the trust of St. Louis fans who felt burned by the firing of Walt Jocketty, the organizations disputes with LaRussa, and the departure of popular veterans like Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, and Jason Isringhausen. I would argue that, with the possible exception of Rolen, who left in a trade for Glaus, Mozeliak made a difficult but nonetheless wise baseball decisions. Isringhausen's aging arm has not felt any better in Tampa Bay. Rolen has had a resurgent season, but his back has kept him out of the lineup regularly and sapped his power. Edmonds was perhaps preemptively retired, having proved a useful platoon player for the Cubs in 2008, but he no longer had the legs to be an everyday centerfielder.

The Cardinals, with quite a bit of help from a milktoast Cubs team, could run away with the NL Central if this current hot streak persists through their West Coast roadtrip. When they return home, the will have fifteen straight games against teams with records under .500. There is a lot to be said for the Phillies and Dodgers, and even for the Giants and Rockies, but in a playoff series against any of those teams, the Cardinals will have the two best hitters on the diamond. Also, both of the starters at the front of their rotation have World Series rings, something none of those teams can boast. And their manager has more wins than anybody in the integrated era, which may or may not give him the edge on Joe Torre.