Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues). If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to another post. I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN. Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active. However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league. Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.
For the first time in 2010, every team is playing seven games this week, so we can look forward to a lot of baseball, as well as lots of interesting matchups, as interleague play begins Friday...
Showing posts with label Justin Masterson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Masterson. Show all posts
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Sunday, May 09, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: "Trade for Aaron Harang. No, seriously."
With approximated 20% of the season in the books, it's time to start sizing up your fantasy roster. Many owners, at this juncture, make one of two mistakes:
1.) Because they are sitting at the bottom of the table, they decide to punt, either completely abandoning their team or, in keeper leagues, starting to play exclusively for next year.
2.) Because they've gotten off to a hot start, they superstitiously sit on their roster, denying any potential for improvement.
With so much season left, it's pretty much guaranteed that you've got a hot streak and a cold streak still in front of you, perhaps a prolonged one. If you do get hot after a bad start and you end up finishing in second or third place, you're going to really regret unloading Placido Polanco for a prospect in May or sitting on Chris Davis when you could've picked up Brennan Boesch. Similarly, if you blow that double-digit lead, your decision to stubbornly stick with Ben Sheets could really burn you.
At this point, you're looking for the classic "buy low, sell high" candidates. Below, I'll provide you with some of my favorites, but first let me offer some strategies for identifying your own:
BABIP:
Batting Average on Balls in Play is the Hansel of statistics. It's so hot right now. It's main benefit is identifying "luck" on both sides of the ball. If a hitter has a BABIP way higher than his career norms, he's finding holes at an unsustainable rate. Everything is dropping in. If his BABIP is unusually low, he's probably hit his fair share of "at 'em" balls and could be due for a hot streak. For pitchers, the opposite applies. High BABIP suggests bad luck, low BABIP suggests the potential for regression.
FIP:
Fielder Independent Pitching measures outcomes that a pitcher can "control." That is, strikeouts, walks, and homers. The resulting number looks like a standard ERA. So, what we can do is compare the FIP, which judges exclusively the pitcher, to the ERA, which is effected by several other factors. Over time, these numbers will tend to move toward each other. In 2009, no team had a separation between ERA and FIP of more than half a run. So, when you see disjunctions of a run or more, you can assume that pitcher is getting burned either by bad defense or bad luck.
Game Logs:
This is the most effective, but also the most time-consuming method for analyzing players. At this point in the season, one bad week for a hitter or one bad outing for a pitcher can have a dramatic effect on their ratio statistics (AVG, OPS, ERA, WHIP, etc.). It's impossible to check these for every player, but for those who you're considering adding, dropping, or trading, it's a must.
HR/FB:
Another stat that goes both ways. HR/FB works best for veteran players having out of character years because, like BABIP, it's most effective when judged against career norms. For a hitter, a significantly higher HR/FB rate might suggest inflated power numbers, gained either by playing in homer-friendly parks or just catching some breaks down the lines. For pitcher, a high HR/FB rate suggests, again, some bad luck or, perhaps, a flurry of unfavorable matchups.
K/BB:
As those who visit the Hippeaux consistently are probably already aware, this is probably my favorite catch-all statistic on both sides of the ball. In the early going, a particularly high strikeout rate (for a hitter) worries me, because it means he has much less chance for positive outcomes (because getting lucky pretty much requires that you at least put the ball in play) and is thus more susceptible to extended cold streaks. A low walk rate, although not as detrimental, also limits the opportunity for things like runs and stolen bases, so I'm particularly aware of it in relation to top of the order/speed type players. On the flip side, a low strikeout rate limits a pitcher's ability to get out of tough situations and makes him more enslaved to his defense. Therefore, it you're considering a low strikeout rate pitcher (there are plenty of good ones), you should pay close attention to the team behind him. A high walk rate, particularly in combination with a low strikeout rate, makes run-scoring situations significantly more frequent.
Now, for the cast of the Bi-Lo All-Stars...
1.) Because they are sitting at the bottom of the table, they decide to punt, either completely abandoning their team or, in keeper leagues, starting to play exclusively for next year.
2.) Because they've gotten off to a hot start, they superstitiously sit on their roster, denying any potential for improvement.
With so much season left, it's pretty much guaranteed that you've got a hot streak and a cold streak still in front of you, perhaps a prolonged one. If you do get hot after a bad start and you end up finishing in second or third place, you're going to really regret unloading Placido Polanco for a prospect in May or sitting on Chris Davis when you could've picked up Brennan Boesch. Similarly, if you blow that double-digit lead, your decision to stubbornly stick with Ben Sheets could really burn you.
At this point, you're looking for the classic "buy low, sell high" candidates. Below, I'll provide you with some of my favorites, but first let me offer some strategies for identifying your own:
BABIP:
Batting Average on Balls in Play is the Hansel of statistics. It's so hot right now. It's main benefit is identifying "luck" on both sides of the ball. If a hitter has a BABIP way higher than his career norms, he's finding holes at an unsustainable rate. Everything is dropping in. If his BABIP is unusually low, he's probably hit his fair share of "at 'em" balls and could be due for a hot streak. For pitchers, the opposite applies. High BABIP suggests bad luck, low BABIP suggests the potential for regression.
FIP:
Fielder Independent Pitching measures outcomes that a pitcher can "control." That is, strikeouts, walks, and homers. The resulting number looks like a standard ERA. So, what we can do is compare the FIP, which judges exclusively the pitcher, to the ERA, which is effected by several other factors. Over time, these numbers will tend to move toward each other. In 2009, no team had a separation between ERA and FIP of more than half a run. So, when you see disjunctions of a run or more, you can assume that pitcher is getting burned either by bad defense or bad luck.
Game Logs:
This is the most effective, but also the most time-consuming method for analyzing players. At this point in the season, one bad week for a hitter or one bad outing for a pitcher can have a dramatic effect on their ratio statistics (AVG, OPS, ERA, WHIP, etc.). It's impossible to check these for every player, but for those who you're considering adding, dropping, or trading, it's a must.
HR/FB:
Another stat that goes both ways. HR/FB works best for veteran players having out of character years because, like BABIP, it's most effective when judged against career norms. For a hitter, a significantly higher HR/FB rate might suggest inflated power numbers, gained either by playing in homer-friendly parks or just catching some breaks down the lines. For pitcher, a high HR/FB rate suggests, again, some bad luck or, perhaps, a flurry of unfavorable matchups.
K/BB:
As those who visit the Hippeaux consistently are probably already aware, this is probably my favorite catch-all statistic on both sides of the ball. In the early going, a particularly high strikeout rate (for a hitter) worries me, because it means he has much less chance for positive outcomes (because getting lucky pretty much requires that you at least put the ball in play) and is thus more susceptible to extended cold streaks. A low walk rate, although not as detrimental, also limits the opportunity for things like runs and stolen bases, so I'm particularly aware of it in relation to top of the order/speed type players. On the flip side, a low strikeout rate limits a pitcher's ability to get out of tough situations and makes him more enslaved to his defense. Therefore, it you're considering a low strikeout rate pitcher (there are plenty of good ones), you should pay close attention to the team behind him. A high walk rate, particularly in combination with a low strikeout rate, makes run-scoring situations significantly more frequent.
Now, for the cast of the Bi-Lo All-Stars...
Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Six)
Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues). If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to another post. I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN. Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active. However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league. Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.
Monday, May 03, 2010
Fantastic Thoughts: The Stream Team (Week Five)
Just as I did for much of last season, each Sunday I will provide a look ahead at favorable pitching matchups for fantasy owners who utilize the "streaming" method (pulling mediocre starters off the waiver wire in an effort to win counting categories in H2H leagues). If the preceding parenthetical makes no sense to you, you should probably move on to another post. I use the player pool from a 12-team 5X5 mixed league at ESPN. Since all the owners in the league have previously won ESPN leagues (a qualification for entry), the competition is at least fairly stiff and the teams fairly active. However, just because a player is available in that league, doesn't necessarily mean he'll be available in your league. Remember, the idea of "streaming" is to win strikeouts and wins, while remaining as competitive as possible in ERA and WHIP.
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