The Payoff Part Deux (Milwaukee Brewers)

In case it hasn't already become clear, you can expect to see a lot of Brewers coverage this season.  The Crew, who have been among my favorite franchises ever since Doug Melvin took over as GM, have an especially high Narrative Likability Factor in 2011.  As I discussed this offseason, with the free agency of Prince Fielder imminent, the Brewers are "going for it," as was clearly evidenced by the mortgaging of the farm system for the short-term services of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.

One of the reasons to root for Milwaukee in 2011 is that, led by Melvin, the Brewers are among the franchises who have been "doing it right" according to the conventional wisdom regarding success in smaller markets.  The core of the team is homegrown.  With the exception of the ill-timed signing of Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee has avoided buying up free agents at a premium, instead extending young players from their own system at discount rates (Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, etc.) and handing out low-risk deals to veteran role players (Randy Wolf, Trevor Hoffman, Nyjer Morgan, etc.).

As a result, the Brewers not only have an impressive cast of talent, but they have an identity, as most of the core players have been together since they were minor-leaguers.  That identity isn't only good for clubhouse camaraderie, but is also appealing to the fan base, which has quietly become one of the most supportive in the National League.  Since Melvin took over in 2003, Brewers attendance has gone from 50% of capacity to over 80% of capacity, an increase of nearly 15,000 fans per game. 

As was revealed by the Opening Day payroll numbers released earlier this week, Melvin's strategy for building a contender in Milwaukee has emphasized commitments from ownership, as well as deft drafting and player development, timely acquisitions, and improved marketing.  The 2011 Brewers represent the largest percentage increase in payroll of any team in baseball since 2004, which happens to be Melvin's second year on the job.  Unlike ownership in many other markets, the Brewers owners met improved support from the community with a deeper investment in the long term competitiveness in the team.  Milwaukee's $85.5 Million Opening Day payroll puts them in the middle of the pack (#17) among all MLB franchises, but it represents a 211% increase since '04.  Melvin grew this payroll gradually (in step with attendance) until he reached the plateau he's maintained pretty consistently since 2008.

Pundits like myself can commend Melvin all we want for his personnel decisions and his deft economizing, but the fact remains, he is nearing the point where he will be judged by his results.  As fun as this collection of Brewers players are to watch, they've got only two winning seasons and one playoff appearance during Melvin's tenure.  With the face of the franchise in his final season, it's imperative the Brewers improve upon that record.  During the Opening Weekend against the reigning NL Central champs, the Cincinnati Reds, you could see that the pressure was on.  The Brewers hit just .223 against the Reds, with an abysmal 26/5 K/BB ratio.  Their bullpen got roughed up, including a painful three-run walkoff homer against closer John Axford on Opening Day.

But the Brewers bounced back in a major way this week, taking three in a row from Atlanta, another presumed NL powerhouse.  Gallardo asserted his Ace status by stopping the losing streak with a dominant complete-game two-hitter and Axford netted saves in back-to-back appearances.  The Brewers need to carry this momentum forward, as their performance in the season's first two months will say a lot about this team.  They will have to face Atlanta and Cincinnati again, as well as Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Los Angeles before Greinke's anticipated return.  If they can stay above .500 during this opening stretch, Greinke's comeback could provide them with a little confidence going into interleague play.

(Greinke is due back sometime around the middle of May.  Considering his injury is similar to that which delayed the start of Cliff Lee's season in 2010, I don't worry too much about his ability to stay on the field and pitch well once he returns.  Lee, after all, was one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball last year, despite his late start.)

The biggest challenge for the Brewers comes in June, when they open a 15-game tussle with some of the best teams in the American League.  The schedule-makers did not do Milwaukee any favors.  They will face the Yankees and the Red Sox on the road, as well as the Rays at home, and their "interleague rival," the AL Central Champion Twins, home and away.  Four AL teams, all of which won 85 or more games in 2010 and all of whom are expected to perform at close to that level, if not better, in 2011.  Compare that to Cincinnati, who gets the Yankees at home, skips the Red Sox entirely, and gets to play their rivalry series against the lowly Indians.  Or the Cardinals, who somehow manage to avoid both New York and Boston, plus get six games against arguably the worst team in all of baseball, the Royals.  It would be a substantial accomplishment for the Brewers to get near .500 against their AL opponents, while their primary rivals will have a significantly easier time of it.

It's important to note that, even when the Brewers lose Fielder to free agency this coming offseason, they will not be going back to the drawing board.  Somewhat ingeniously, Melvin has gotten Braun, Weeks, and Gallardo under team control through 2015.  Greinke, Marcum, and Corey Hart remain under contract through at least 2012.  As such, it would be a mistake to argue that if they miss the playoffs in 2011 their window will absolutely be closed.  However, their is no reason to believe the Reds will be getting any worse, while 2012 will bring the Cubs some much-needed salary relief, they could be major players in the free agent market this coming winter.  While the NL Central is already a rather deep, competitive division, it could get even tougher in coming years.  Yet another reason Milwaukee's management clearly feels their time is now.

Fantastic Thoughts: "First base is deep, but not that deep." (Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings)

I've discussed the "three threes" strategy before, most recently in my 2010 BLOGZKRIEG! Auction Diary, but heres a quick refresher.

My theory is that first-baseman, besides consistently filling up the stat sheet, are less frequently injured than players who play more strenuous positions.  So, I aim to get as many 1B/DH types on my roster as possible, three at minimum: at first, corner infield, and utility.  If you have an instance, as we did in 2010, where a former third-baseman or outfielder is being moved to first (i.e. Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus, etc.), but still has eligibility at their old position, than that opens up the possibility of getting even more.

Here are the numbers, by position, of players who got at least 600 plate appearances in 2010:

C: 0
1B: 21
2B: 9
3B: 11
SS: 10
LF: 10
CF: 14
RF: 11
DH: 4

This was actually an even more pronounced distribution than I've seen in years past, but 1B is almost always the runaway leader.  Keeping your players on the field is one of the most important and least predictable aspects of playing fantasy baseball and this is one way I seek to exert a little bit of control.

This season, however, the class of first baseman is not as deep as it has been in the recent past.  There are a few reasons for this.  No fewer than ten teams are currently planning to go with young first-baseman, either rookies or sophomores.  Some of them are quite promising, but there is always risk involved with young players.  Furthermore, we have a couple of premier hitters - Justin Morneau and Kendry Morales - who are coming back from injuries and whose production, especially in the early months of the season, could be effected.  Several players who were formerly considered safe producers - Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, etc. - are coming off bad years.  It's hard to feel comfortable predicting a rebound.  And, on the other side, guys like Paul Konerko and Aubrey Huff just posted career highs.  What can we expect from them?

It's a tough crop to gauge, which is one reason why the elite first-baggers, always among the most expensive players on the board, may be even more sought-after.

1. Albert Pujols, STL
2. Miguel Cabrera, DET

Not only are they the clear leaders at the position, they are, in my mind at least, the two most valuable players in fantasy baseball.  If it weren't for Pujols, we'd probably hear a lot more about the historical precedence of Miggy's seven-year stretching of averaging .317 - 100 - 34 - 117 - 4.  But, of course, Prince Albert's stretch runs to ten years at .331 - 119 - 41 - 123 - 8.  Sick.  Just sick.

3. Prince Fielder, MIL
4. Joey Votto, CIN
5. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
6. Ryan Howard, PHI

Many would scoff at putting Fielder ahead of the 2010 NL MVP, but remember we're not paying for last year's stats.  History has suggested, that short of legends like Pujols and Bonds, it's really hard to maintain MVP-type numbers from one year to the next.  I'm not saying Votto won't continue to be productive, but I expect a modest decline from a player who, to be honest, set career highs is basically everything in 2010.  Fielder is the same age as Votto, but with a much longer and more impressive overall track record and, coming off a slightly down season (.261-94-32-83-1), in a contract year, and playing for a serious contender, he's got everything to prove.

7. Mark Teixeira, NYY
8. Justin Morneau, MIN
10. Kendry Morales, LAA
11. Adam Dunn, CWS

Note that, absent from this group is Kevin Youkilis.  If he were here, I would probably rank him ahead of Teixeira, but as he will be spending most of the season at the hot corner, following the Adrian Gonzalez trade, that's where I'm going to rank him.  Again, it has to do with wanting to focus on the guys that have the luxury of playing baseball's least taxing position.  This is a class of players who are all clearly superb hitters and could very well end up out-producing several players in the tier above them, but all give us reason for pause.  Morales is coming off a broken leg that cost him almost all of 2010.  Morneau looked like he was heading for his second MVP award, but concussions cut he season short at the halfway point.  Teixeira dealt with minor injuries and still produced at a high level, except in terms of batting average, which fell to a career low (.256, is probably just a fluke, based on his .268 BABIP).  Batting average is also the concern for Dunn, who actually was above his career norms in his two years in Washington.  The move to Chicago could be good for his power totals, but changing leagues might cause him to backtrack in terms of average and strikeouts.  Again, it's possible any one of these guys could give you a top-five caliber performance, but there's some minor uncertainties.

12. Billy Butler, KC
13. Paul Konerko, CWS
14. Aubrey Huff, SFG
15. Adam Lind, TOR

This is where the first substantial dropoff happens.  All of these guys have certainly proved themselves capable of putting up big numbers, but their ability to do it consistently in the question.  After mediocre showings in '08 and '09 it looked like Konerko was entering his decline.  Then, just before his contract expired, he posted the best season of his career, at age 34.  Though a year younger, Huff's situation is similar.  2010 was, in many respects, his best showing since 2003 (although he also had a very respectable year in 2008).  Lind was an MVP candidate in '09, but fell apart last year.  In 2011 he'll be 27-years-old and playing a new position.  Could it spark a comeback?  With all these players, the issue is not whether you want them so much as what you have to pay for them.  In the early middle rounds of your draft or for around $20-$25, they're reasonable investment, but don't reach.  On the other hands, if one of them slips or can be had for under $20, get after him.

16. Matt LaPorta, CLE
17. Kila Ka'aihue, KCR
18. Justin Smoak, SEA
19. Daric Barton, OAK
20. James Loney, LAD

These players are defined by what I'd call "unrealized potential."  Matt LaPorta was the cornerstone in the C. C. Sabathia trade a few years back.  At the time he was presumed a future All-Star, but his performance thusfar has been frankly pathetic (596 OPS in 162 games).  He's still young.  Ka'aihue has hit at every minor-league level, but for some reason the Royals were reluctant to promote him.  Now, at age 27, he'll finally get a shot to prove himself, but the Eric Hosmer era is just on the horizon, so there's little room for error.  A year ago, everybody thought Smoak was "a sure thing," then he hit .218 in half a season with Texas and Seattle.  Still, he's a tailor-made post-hype sleeper.  Barton finally got a firm hold on the A's first base job last year, as many had long been expecting, but he still hasn't shown much power, and much of his "real" value comes from his OBP and his defense, neither of which shows up on most fantasy stat sheets.  Many predicted Loney to be a future batting champion after he hit .321 with a 915 OPS in his first two seasons (446 AB).  In the past three he's hit .279 with a 751 OPS (1759 AB) and patience is wearing thin in L.A.

As you can tell, this is why I have some skepticism about the depth of this year's first-base class.  There's plenty of talent in this tier and those that follow, but it is very, very unproven.

21. Brandon Allen, ARZ
22. Gaby Sanchez, FLA
23. Freddie Freeman, ATL
24. Ike Davis, NYM

Some will go a little gaga over Sanchez and Davis because they were considered Rookie of the Year candidates in 2010.  But, let's be honest, as far as fantasy first baseman go, their numbers sucked.

Sanchez: .273 AVG, 72 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB
Davis: .264 AVG, 73 R, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 3 SB

Base on their minor-league records, I'm not convinced either is going to rapidly improve.  If you're paying only a dollar or two, as you probably were last year, that's fine.  But for the $15+ you might need to pay this season, I'd rather wait and take a cheap flyer on one of this year's rookies.  Allen and Freeman are probably the best of the 2011 class.

26. Derrek Lee, BAL
27. Carlos Pena, CHC
28. Adam LaRoche, WAS
29. Lyle Overbay, TOR
30. Todd Helton, COL

Boring, boring, and more boring.  That said, each of these guys will end up outperforming several of the young players I've listed ahead of them.  They're basically 75 R, 20 HR, and 75 RBI in the bank (presuming health), but with potentially low averages.  That ain't great for a starting first-baseman, but then again, only 11 players did substantially better in 2010.  In a year light on "sure things," it might not be a bad idea to go boring with one of your low-end selections.

29. Mitch Moreland, TEX
30. Brett Wallace, HOU
31. Leslie Anderson, TBR
32. Brandon Belt, SFG
33. Chris Carter, OAK
34. Chris Davis, TEX
35. Yonder Alonso, CIN

The young player grab bag.  You know the deal.  Lots of upside.  No certainty.  No guaranteed playing time.  Moreland and Wallace get the upper hand only because they appear destined make Opening Day lineups.  Will they survive April?  That's harder to tell.

The Payoff (2011 Milwaukee Brewers)

A couples weeks back, Brewers GM, Doug Melvin, stunned the mainstream sportswriting world by landing the top pitcher in this year's trade market, Zack Greinke (I can't help but point out that I predicted this move a month ago, because it just made so much sense).  The Greinke acquisition, combined with an underrated trade for Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays, represents what Melvin hopes will be among the crowning moves of a Championship strategy eight years in the making.

When the 50-year-old Melvin took over the Milwaukee front office in the fall of 2002, the Brewers were coming off a season in which the team had lost 106 games, far and away the most in franchise history.  That team was built around young men - Richie Sexson, Geoff Jenkins, and Ben Sheets, particularly -who are now retired (probably, Sheets may still get one more shot).  The '02 Brewers were a long, long way from contending.  Melvin realized as much and chose to take a longview, building from within through the draft and trading big league talents like Sexson and Eric Young for promising prospects.

Early in his tenure Melvin netted the core of the Brewers current roster - Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, and Ryan Braun - all drafted between '02 and '05.  Buoyed by young talent, but never with a payroll above $40 Million, the Brewers slowly made the climb back to .500, reaching that benchmark in '05 for the first time in thirteen seasons.  Melvin recognized, however, that the '05 team was still a long way from being a true contender.  Rather than trade from his increasingly deep farm system or squander his limited funds on a mid-tier free agent in a desperate, short-sighted run at the pennant, he deconstructed Milwaukee's most popular team in over a decade, allowing Jenkins and Carlos Lee to walk, and trading away Lyle Overbay and Doug Davis.

At the time these were unpopular decisions, in retrospect we see Melvin's prescience.  Jenkins was never the same player after leaving Milwaukee and was out of baseball entirely within three years.  Carlos Lee also relatively quickly became a shadow of his former self.  He remains a tremendous drain on the Astros payroll.  Lyle Overbay never matured beyond what Melvin saw from him in '04 and '05.  He was a huge disappointment during his five seasons with Toronto.  Likewise, Doug Davis' best season remains his '05 campaign, although he has been a decent innings-eater over the past half-decade...when he's been able to stay healthy.

While this minor dismantling meant it would take two more seasons for Milwaukee to get the winning record they'd be looking for since the early 90s, once they got there they were solidified as a team to be reckoned with for several years to come.  In 2008 Melvin finally got them to the promised land, as the team led by Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Sheets, and Corey Hart, and buoyed by the midseason acquisition of C. C. Sabathia, won 90 games and the NL Wild Card.  It was the Brewers first trip to the postseason since Harvey's Wallbangers took the AL Pennant way back in 1982.

The Sabathia trade marked a change of strategies.  Melvin traded away '07 first-rounder, Matt LaPorta, one of the top-rated hitting prospects in all of baseball at the time, in order to rent The Big Sleep, who delivered as much as anybody could've asked of him, going 11-2 for his new team, including several big wins on short rest down the stretch.   Melvin may have hoped that his carefully crafted homegrown roster would have enough the challenge the top teams in the league with needing expensive reinforcements, ala the Tampa Bay Rays, but after two mildly disappointing follow-up campaigns, in which starting pitching became a major Achilles heel, he has been forced to put all his chips on the table.

In order to get Greinke and Marcum, Melvin had to give up three more first-round picks - including highly acclaimed prospects Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Lawrie - as well as the young, slick-fielding shortstop, Alcides Escobar.  While Milwaukee's farm system is among the deepest in baseball, and the Melvin administration has rarely missed with their draft picks, this still represents a major drain on their talent pool and could have ramifications for the roster in 2012 and beyond.  Also, at the end of 2011 Fielder, Weeks, and Hart will all be eligible for free agency.  What all this seems to suggest is that this is the year the Brewers have chosen to go for it.  Ever since the ascension of Fielder and Braun, Milwaukee has had one of the most potent offenses on the senior circuit.  With the addition of a Cy Young winner and a promising young workhorse, now they may have the pitching to match.  Buster Olney tentatively predicts that the Brewers will have the third best rotation in the National League, behind only Philadelphia and San Francisco, the NLCS contestants of 2010.

Unfortunately, a few things still stand in the way of the Crew.  Foremost, their division.  In 2010, another long dormant franchise, the Cincinnati Reds, surged to the front of the NL Central, in much the same fashion the Brewers had in 2008, led by a deep young lineup.  There's little reason to believe they'll be any worse in 2011.  The St. Louis Cardinals, though aging and lacking depth, still have the fabulous foursome of Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, and Chris Carpenter.  To discount the ability of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan to mix and match around that quartet would be unwise.  The Cubs are a bloated mess of mismanagement and underperformance, but bounceback campaigns from Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Zambrano could easily get them back to between 80 and 85 wins.  Even the Astros had a resurgent stretch after they cleaned house in the middle of 2010 and the Pirates have a youthful core that is only a few years away from making their opponents very uncomfortable.  Put all this together and you have what may well be the second strongest division in baseball (behind the AL East).  The Brewers will need to have a few good breaks in 2011 in order for Melvin's all-in hand to yield another trip to the playoffs from the dogfight in the NL Central.

What once was a weakness, the rotation, is now the Brewers strength.  The strong front four of Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Randy Wolf will be aided by a relatively promising group of youngsters, including former first-rounder Mark Rogers, Manny Parra, and Chris Narveson.  However, some of the other aspects of the team are not as certain as they were in previous seasons.  The bullpen has a little more depth following the signings of Takashi Saito and Sean Green, but they are leaning heavily on second-year closer, John Axford, and 23-year-old setup man, Zach Braddock.  We are all well aware of the danger of banking on the consistency of sophomore relievers.

More worrisome, however, is a lineup that is shallower than it has been since early in Melvin's tenure.  The Greinke trade also saddled the Brewers with the Royals albatross, Yuneisky Betancourt, arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues since 2005.  I have a hard time imagining Melvin would match Dayton Moore's incompetence by allowing the defensively and offensively challenged Betancourt to be Milwaukee's starter, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a clear replacement in the system.  40-year-old Craig Counsell will return as a primary utilityman, but coming off a season in which he posted the worst OBP of his career, he's not much of an upgrade over Betancourt.  Melvin might be tempted to take a long look at mildly promising younsters like Luis Cruz and Zelous Wheeler, or could be entertaining the idea of signing a cheap veteran like Edgar Renteria, Cristian Guzman, or Orlando Cabrera.  Another outside the box option may be converting Casey McGehee to shortstop in order to make room for the potent bat of Mat Gamel at third base.  This Brewers infield defense, already fairly abyssmal, might suffer even more, but Gamel is among the top hitting prospects in the National League and McGehee scuffled down the stretch in 2010.  He wasn't the same player from June onward, posting just a 767 OPS, more than a hundred points off his pace from the first two months.  As far as I'm concerned, any of these would be an upgrade over Betancourt, whose WAR since 2008 is -0.7.  That's right, according to FanGraphs, there are several players at AAA who almost certainly would've been better than Betancourt the past three seasons.  

Centerfield is also cause for concern in Milwaukee.  25-year-old Carlos Gomez, the fruit of the J. J. Hardy trade, is a defensive wizard, but in three full seasons in the majors has yet to look like anything more than an automatic out at the plate.  He hasn't been able to break the .300 mark in OBP in any year, which limits his ability to take advantage of his main asset, speed.  The best option to replace him, Lorenzo Cain, who showed considerable promise during a brief stint at the end of 2010, was a key piece in the Greinke trade, so Gomez's only competition comes from Brandon Boggs and Chris Dickerson, players cast off by their former franchises...probably for good reason.  Gomez's ability to develop into at least a replacement-level major-league hitter is perhaps the underestimated key to the Brewers success in 2011.

Finally, the Brewers have another sizable hole to fill at catcher.  Jonathan Lucroy was a hell of a hitter up through AA, but at AAA and in half a season in the bigs his OPS was just 628.  Veteran backups like George Kottaras and Wil Nieves would be lucky to manage even that much offense, so the Brewers need Lucroy or Angel Salome to rise to the challenge.  If Lucroy can find that combo of power and patience which allowed him to excel in the low minors in '08 and '09, the Crew will be considerably deeper.

On paper, I think it is reasonable to view Milwaukee as a serious threat to the Reds, but if the Brewers can't find at least a couple decent bats to slot into the back half of the lineup, it will be much easier for pitchers to work around the murderers row at the top of the order.  If Melvin intends to make a run at not only the division, but a NL Pennant as well, he better not be finished with his wheeling and dealing.  As mentioned before, the Brewers have plenty of budget to go after a veteran shortstop, especially considering such players would probably be enticed by Milwaukee's opportunity to contend.  At the end of this season the Brewers are likely in for a long rebuilding process, no matter how successful they are.  Melvin may consider unloading even more of the farm system to acquire somebody like Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, or Kurt Suzuki, either now or closer to the trade deadline.  I don't expect him to be shy, his job may very well be on the line.    

...Oh, here's where all the sluggers are hiding. (Hot Stove Preview)

As promised, a peak at the most mouthwatering Hot Stove trade targets...

1. Justin Upton - OF - Arizona D-Backs

Potential Suitors: Everybody & Nobody

Perhaps the greatest indication yet of Upton's superlative talent is the extent to which all other Hot Stove storylines - Cliff Lee's free agency, Derek Jeter's squabble with the Yankees, the Dan Uggla trade, etc. - have been put on the backburner since Kevin Towers announced his willingness to listen to offers for the D-Backs 23-year-old outfielder.  Towers, in his first year as Arizona's GM, is probably just trying to raise awareness for his organization and facilitate conversations with his fellow execs.

It's true that he may also see a very real opportunity for the D-Backs in the immediate future, even though they share a division with the reigning World Champs.  There's certainly good cause to believe the Giants were a bit fortunate this year and they've got a lot of rebuilding to do on offense this winter.  I would go so far as to say the Padres weren't only fortunate, but fluky, and are likely to get worse before they get better.  The Dodgers have quite a bit of stockpiled talent, but the McCourt divorce has been keeping them hamstrung.  The Rockies are the only franchise in the NL West that is truly primed to contend in 2011 and beyond, regardless of what happens this offseason.

With that picture in mind, I can understand how Towers might believe that with a few cagey maneuvers he could get the D-Backs in the postseason as soon as next year.  However, I don't see why that plan wouldn't include one of the game's most promising young players.  If, in 2011, Upton develops into the superstar we all assume he will eventually become, he's almost certain to be worth more than anything he could yield in a trade right now, following a disappointing season in which he was slowed by injuries.  The D-Backs have Upton wrapped up for five more seasons, the next three of which come at an extremely reasonable price.  They also have already made a significant time investment.  They promoted him quickly and allowed him to mature at the major-league level under the assumption it would expedite his development as both a player and a leader.  Even though Towers wasn't in charge when those decisions were made, I think he'd be remiss to squander that time and energy for anything short of an absolute fleecing (we're talking a Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, & Matt Joyce type of fleecing). None of the organizations who have the depth of talent Towers would be interested are going to fall for his ruse, not for a guy who hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season since he reached the majors.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.

2. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B - San Diego Padres

Potential Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers

A year ago this time pretty much everybody was convinced Gonzo would be in Boston in time for the 2010 pennant race.  However, the Padres surprised everybody (including themselves?) by staying the hunt for the NL West title all the way to the season's final day.  It may have been a curse disguised as a blessing.  In the end, San Diego didn't get to play in October, and now Gonzalez is less than a year from free agency and his trade value is diminishing with each passing day.  If they Padres deal him, they'll still probably get at least two solid prospects in return, but they'll be essentially throwing in the towel for 2011.  It's a hard admission to make to their fan base.

Gonzo is likely destined for a Mark Teixeira-sized contract, which is why San Diego can't hope to retain him.  It could also limit his trade market.  Many teams will be interested, but few will be willing to offer top prospects merely for a one-year rental.  Typical free-spenders like the Yankees and Phillies will sit this one out because they've already got long-term commitments at first base.

If and when Gonzo is made available, I expect Boston will make every effort to acquire him, but their farm system will have a hard time competing with those of Texas, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, or Baltimore, if those teams do get involved.  San Diego's GM, Jed Hoyer, no doubt knows this, so he'll wait until later in the offseason to make a deal, hoping to identify more desperate franchises, and fueling a few more ticket sales as an added bonus.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Boston Red Sox for Casey Kelly, Lars Anderson, & Josh Reddick

3. Zack Greinke - SP - Kansas City Royals

Potential Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona D-Backs, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds

I think there's real fuel for this Hot Stove fire.  While I don't agree with their diagnosis, Kansas City's front office clearly believes the Royals are just a few years away from contention.  Unfortunately for them, their Cy Young-winning Ace is just two years from free agency.  Frankly, for everybody involved, a trade makes sense.  Greinke gets to spend his prime years pitching for a team that has a chance and in return the Royals save some money and get a couple of players whose ETA is in line with their 2013 target.

Obviously, there's no shortage of teams in the market for a young, dominant starter.  And, because he's got two full years remaining under contract, his suitors won't necessarily be limited to teams with a chance of signing him to an extension.  I do think, however, Greinke's history of anxiety and depression will play a role, perhaps limiting the interest from franchises in large and/or unfriendly media markets.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Milwaukee Brewers for Brett Lawrie, Carlos Gomez, & D'Vontrey Richardson

4. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers

Potential Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers

I think we can say with relative certainty that Fielder is going to test the market next offseason.  For starters, his agent is Scott Boras.  We all know how much Boras likes to set precedents and Fielder is a potential precedent-setting player.  There's a strong chance Fielder will hit his 200th homer before his 27th birthday.  In five full seasons in the majors he's averaged 38 homers and 105 RBI.  He's dramatically improved his plate discipline (led the NL in walks in 2010) and his defense (it's still not great, but its better).  He's kept his weight in check.  He's shown great leadership.  And, perhaps most importantly, he's missed a grand total of 13 games...in five seasons!

He's got a long and impressive track record, especially for a player his age, and you can be certain Boras will make somebody pay for it.  He will surely get a contract larger than any in the history of his position...so far (there's a good chance Pujols is going to set a new record before Fielder hits the market).  So, while Fielder is a middle-of-the-order presence rivaled by only a handful of players in the entire game, few GMs will be willing to mortgage the farm knowing that either a.) they'll lose him in 2012 or b.) they'll have to pay him something near $200 Million.

Milwaukee will certainly shop him all winter long, but if they can solve their pitching woes some other way (enter Greinke), I expect they'll stick with Prince until the end and settle for a couple of compensation picks a year from now.  

Hippeaux's Prediction: Stays put.

5. Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona D-Backs

Potential Suitors: Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Atlanta Braves, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants,

Imagine this: You're a major-league GM (pretty good start, right?).  For the last week, you've been contemplating whether you're ready to commit a couple of your hard-won prospects to a trade for Justin Upton.  At last, you're ready to pull the trigger.  You're still anxious, but you figure, risks like this are a necessary part of doing business.  So you punch up Arizona's GM, Kevin Towers, and you lay out your offer in no uncertain terms...

...and then he tries the ole bait-and-switch!  "I don't know if I ready to part with Justin," he says, "but have you considered Mark Reynolds?"

Pros: Nobody can deny Mark Reynolds has legitimate 40 HR power.  When healthy, he's also got surprising speed and he's made dramatic progress on defense, posting his first positive UZR (2.2) in 2010.  He's got four years of major-league experience, but he just turned 27, so there's a high likelihood his best years are still in front of him.  He's under contract for three more seasons at a fairly reasonable price (roughly $8 Mil./yr.).

Cons: He's led the National Leage in strikeouts for three years running.  In 2010, he became the first National League player in three decades get enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, but finish below the Mendoza line (.198). (By the way, trivia answer is Ivan de Jesus, Cubs, 1981.)  He's spent his entire career so far playing in a launching pad (his career SLG% is 46 points higher at home).  He missed some games last season with hamstring problems and his stolen base totals suffered dramatically.  And, last but not least, he's not Justin Upton.

Towers "shopping" of Upton may actually diminish the market for Reynolds.  But the main thing diminishing the market for Reynolds is that he's coming off the worst year of his young career.  Perhaps this is an ideal opportunity to "buy low"?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Bell & Brandon Wood

Here's some quick hits to round out the Top Ten...

6. Carlos Beltran - CF/RF - New York Mets

Beltran and Mets both looking for a fresh start.  It's a contract year for the 34-year-old outfielder, so he's motivated.  Is he healthy?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Kansas City Royals for Chris Getz, Juan Cruz, & cash

7. Heath Bell - CL - San Diego Padres

Padres have a boatload of relievers ready to move into the 9th.  Bell's market will never be better than it is right now.  Sell!  Sell!  Sell!

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Atlanta Braves for Kyle Rose & Zeke Spruill

8. Josh Willingham - OF - Washington Nationals

Wills quietly had a couple of very strong seasons with the Nats and has been much better than you realize over the course of his career.  He's got one more year before free agency.  This could be a low-risk, high-reward rental.  Hey, Brian Sabean, THIS ONE'S FOR YOU!!!

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Detroit Tigers for Wilkin Ramirez & Scott Sizemore

9. Mike Napoli - C - Los Angeles Angels

He's never gotten on well with Scioscia, because of his defensive limitations, but there's no denying the kid can hit, and he's still young.  Could make a great C/DH combo for teams looking to add power.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to Toronto Blue Jays for Fred Lewis & Casey Janssen

10. Jason Bartlett - SS - Tampa Bay Rays

Reid Brignac & Tim Beckham are demanding playing time and Bartlett is coming off the worst year of his career.  He can be had for a song.  The question is, even then, is he worth it?

Hippeaux's Prediction: Traded to San Francisco Giants for Dan Runzler

Fantastic Thoughts: "Albert Pujols is good. No, really." (First Base Preview)

First base has always been the deepest position in fantasy baseball, but this year's class is exceptional, with a dozen or more players who will go in the first five rounds, even in relatively shallow leagues.  That number gets even bigger if you include guys like Pablo Sandoval and Mark Reynolds, who are also eligible at first in most leagues, but who I don't include here because their primary position is third base (which is much, much shallower). 


There are conflicting views on how this excess of riches should effect your draft strategy.  Some believe that the prevalence of big bats at the position means you should load up on other positions in the early rounds and grab a guy like Paul Konerko or James Loney who might fall deep into the draft or be available for very little money in an auction.  Others would contend that with this many studs, it's even more imperative that you get one or even two of them on your roster.  


Although I think both strategies have validity, I tend more towards the latter, because I think it leaves you will slightly more room for error.  If you pass on a Prince Fielder, a Mark Texeira, or an Adrian Gonzalez, you had better be damn sure that the player you pick in his place is going to put up premium stats, regardless of what position he plays.  First baseman are productive, not only because the position tends to attract burly sluggers, but also because it tends to be slightly less toilsome than most of the other positions on the diamond.  23 first baseman, including every one of my top eighteen, played 130 or more games in 2009.  Compare that to 16 shortstops, 18 third baseman, and 10 catchers, and you get an idea why it's not a bad idea to grab a first-bagger early on.    


1. Albert Pujols (Cardinals)

Much as was the case with Bonds early last decade, for the last several years fantasy pundits have been trying to find a reason why Prince Albert shouldn't be the first player off the board.  After making a serious run at the Triple Crown in 2009, I think he's finally proven the such a reason doesn't exist.  It's hard to predict a duplication of his ridiculous '09 numbers (.327 AVG, 124 R, 47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB, 1101 OPS).  But, at the same time, Pujols is still in the midst of his prime, has never had an "off" year, and, with the signing of Matt Holliday, finally has some lineup protection, so (hazard this thought if you root for another NL Central franchise) there may actually be room for improvement (gulp).

2. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
3. Prince Fielder (Brewers)
4. Ryan Howard (Phillies)
5. Mark Texeira (Yankees)
6. Justin Morneau (Twins)
7. Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
8. Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)

These are the lions.  In each of the mock drafts I've looked at thusfar, although the order might be altered slightly, all of these guys are off the board by the middle of the third round, sometimes earlier.  When choosing your stud, you should think carefully about your leagues rules.  In a standard 5X5 roto league you might bump Howard up a slot because of his propensity for massive HR and RBI totals.  If you league counts OBP or OPS, you might prefer Youkilis over a couple of the guys I've listed in front of him.  If you get negative points for strikeouts, that'll work against Howard and benefit Morneau and A-Gonz.

My favorite from this group is definitely Prince Fielder.  It's primarily because I just love watching him play, which is nothing more than an aesthetic justification, but I'll also point out that at 25, he's the youngest of the group and there is reason to believe that he may still be maturing (same goes for Cabrera, who is 26).  In '09 he dramatically improved his walk rate and the improved discipline not only translated into a better OBP, but also more hits and a higher average.

If there is a weak link, I think it's Mark Texeira.  Tex's hype legitimately corresponds to his contract and the fact that he helped bring a championship to New York in his first year with the club, but those who are predicting even bigger things in 2010 need to temper their expectations.  In some leagues he's getting drafted ahead of Cabrera, Fielder, and Howard.  As good as he is, his numbers don't quite stack up to that company.

BBA Awards Ballot: MVP (NL)

There have been some nice moments in the BBA Awards so far. Voters have shown a strong inclination to look past the standings. Of the four player awards thusfar, none has gone to a player on a playoff team. Most recently, Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke grabbed the highest honor for pitchers, despite the fact that neither won more than sixteen games.

The MVP, however, is the one award I believe should take into account team success, as well as individual numbers. This isn't to say that Ryan Braun and Adam Lind aren't legitimate candidates just because they played on losing teams, merely that when they are compared to men with similar statistics on winning teams, they fall slightly behind.

I also believe that the MVP award should go to a position player. Not that Greinke and Lincecum aren't extraordinarily "valuable," but pitcher's have their own award and there needs to be some credit given to those guys that grind it out every day, both at the plate and in the field. As such, defense is also a major factor when it comes to my MVP voting, which is why I favor stats like WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which account for fielding as well as hitting.

Unfortunately, the MVP races aren't very close this year. Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer are, deservedly, runaway favorites. I believe that, were anybody else to win, it would be a bit of a travesty, so the main question for me was how to fill out the rest of my ballot and which league provided the most interesting group of second and third tier candidates to discuss. There were some very interesting arguments to be made on both sides, but my discussion of the AL is just going to have to wait until November. Here is my NL ballot:

10. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B - San Diego Padres
.277/.407/.551, 90 R, 40 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, 4.3 UZR, 6.4 WAR
9. Derrek Lee - 1B - Chicago Cubs
.306/.393/.579, 91 R, 35 HR, 111 RBI, 1 SB, 3.4 UZR, 5.3 WAR
8. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals
.292/.364/.525, 110 R, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 2 SB, 17.9 UZR, 7.1 WAR

The bottom third of my ballot was reserved for players whose teams were bad, but whose seasons weren't. The Padres, Cubs, and Nats would've been much worse off without the efforts of these gentlemen. Z-pack and D-Lee both bounced back to prove they were still superstar-caliber players after mediocre, injury-plagued seasons in '08. Zimmerman deserves Gold Glove consideration for his efforts at the hot corner. Gonzo improved his power numbers for the fourth consecutive season, despite playing in spacious Petco Park (28 of his dingers came on the road). He's still just 27. The Padres have him signed through 2011 for an amazingly affordable rate ($11.25 Million total for the next two seasons). He will likely be the cream of the 2012 free agent class.

7. Matt Kemp - CF - Los Angeles Dodgers
.297/.352/.490, 97 R, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 34 SB, 3.2 UZR, 5.1 WAR
6. Troy Tulowitzki - SS - Colorado Rockies
.297/.377/.552, 101 R, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 20 SB, -0.6 UZR, 5.5 WAR
5. Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants
.330/.387/.556, 79 R, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 5 SB, -4.6 UZR, 5.1 WAR

Three superb youngsters hold down the middle third of my ballot. Tulowitzki and Kemp are just 25, while Kung Fu Panda is merely 23. All three elevated their already impressive games in '09. Andre Ethier had slightly better power number and some memorable walk-off hits for the Dodgers, but Kemp was really what made their offense tick. He's probably a lock for 30/30 for the next several years and he has become one of the league's finest centerfielders. Tulowitzki defensive wizardry wasn't quite up to the standard he set in 2007, but he still made just nine errors, trailing only Jimmy Rollins. He took a major step forward on offense, however, becoming the Rockies top hitter. He joins three Rs - Rollins, Ramirez, and Reyes - among premier shortstops going into 2010. The depth of the Giants offensive problems are probably best demonstrated by the fact that Pablo Sandoval batted third in the order, got over 600 plate appearances, racked up an OPS of 943 (7th best in the NL), and still scored only 79 runs. New San Francisco mantra: "Strand-a Pand-a."

4. Hanley Ramirez - SS - Florida Marlins
.342/.410/.543, 101 R, 24 HR, 106 RBI, 27 SB, 0.3 UZR, 7.3 WAR
3. Chase Utley - 2B - Philadelphia Phillies
.282/.397/.508, 112 R, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 23 SB, 12.0 UZR, 7.7 WAR
2. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers
.299/.412/.602, 103 R, 46 HR, 141 RBI, 2 SB, 0.2 UZR, 6.7 WAR

These guys have all been in this position before and, probably, will be again, looking up at King Albert.

Ryan Howard got a lot of press this year for slimming down and playing better defense, but Prince Fielder did the exact same thing, bringing his UZR up to average from -8.5 in 2008 (which was the best of his career until this season). Howard and Fielder appear, superficially, to be very similar players, but Fielder walks more and strikes out less, perhaps contributing to his much higher averages, and he doesn't suffer the annual month-long growing pains in April. Fielder is still just 25 and is consistently underrated. In my mind, he is already a superior player to Howard, Texeira, Gonzalez, and Morneau.

1. Albert Pujols - 1B - St. Louis Cardinals
.327/.443/.658, 124 R, 47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB, 1.2 UZR, 8.4 WAR

What more needs be said? He's the best player in baseball, has been for about five seasons now and it doesn't look like he's becoming the least bit complacent.

Honorable Mention: Ryan Braun LF (MIL), Ryan Howard 1B (PHI), Andre Ethier LF (LAD), Jayson Werth RF (PHI), Justin Upton RF (ARZ)

AL MVP Ballot (had I swung that way): 10. Franklin Gutierrez CF (SEA), 9. Derek Jeter SS (NYY), 8. Mark Texeira 1B (NYY), 7. Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B (BOS), 6. Victor Martinez C/1B (BOS), 5. Chone Figgins 3B (LAA), 4. Ben Zobrist 2B/SS/RF (TAM), 3. Evan Longoria 3B (TAM), 2. Miguel Cabrera 1B (DET), 1. Joe Mauer C (MIN)

This season I've drafted no less than fifteen fantasy teams. Perhaps I will regret it, but my intention is to win every league, test the boundaries of my knowledge. I am playing in nearly every format: AL-only, NL-only, draft, auction, salary cap, H2H, 12-team, 16-team, roto, points, daily, weekly, yada-yada. As of this morning, my final draft has been completed. Here is a list of the players who appear on three or more of my rosters. These are obviously not exactly the players who I consider the finest at each position. I love Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera as much as the next guy, but they weren't always available when I wished them to be. More accurately, this list indicates which players I am ranking above the average fantasy player or analyst.

Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams

My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.

Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams

I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.

Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams

I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.

Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams

Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.

Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams

Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.

Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams

The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.

Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams

Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.

J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams

The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.

See C.C.'s Crew

As a Cubs fan, I must say this through clenched teeth, but the Brewers may be the most soulful team in baseball, and their great team chemistry, bolstered by the additions of C. C. Sabathia and Ray Durham, combined with enormous talent, has made them into the most dangerous team in the National League the second half of the season.  Since acquiring the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner, the Brew Crew has gone 9-4 (and they're leading the Cardinals in the third game of a four-game set as I write this).  Sabathia has been no mere confidence booster.  He is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 24 K in 24 innings coming into tonight, and has yet to allow a hit in five innings this evening.  However, his "confidence-boosting" may be even more critical.  Since he arrived in Milwaukee on July 6th, these are the numbers for some of the critical Brewers, not all of whom were running hot throughout the second half.  

Bill Hall (3B): .361, 9 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 1 SB, 1117 OPS

Ryan Braun (LF): .339, 9 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 1087 OPS

Prince Fielder (1B): .327, 6 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 1054 OPS

J. J. Hardy (SS): .321, 11 R, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 956 OPS  

Rickie Weeks (2B): .295, 14 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB, 881 OPS

I would like to draw special attention to Bill Hall, who lost his starting role to Russell Branyan in June, but is now back to playing every day and hit game-winning homers in each of the first two days of the critical Cardinals series, putting the Brewers alone in second place in the NL Central.  Hall, apparently a close friend of Sabathia, is looking like this year's version of Jacque Jones (whose huge second-half improvement bolstered the Cubs into last year's playoffs).  

This is also a good time to salute Doug Melvin, Ned Yost, and the Milwaukee Brewers organization, who now have six African-American players on their active roster.  Sadly, that's the most of any team in baseball.  Undoubtedly you will be reading in the coming months that the Brewers rely on "natural athletes," get by purely "on talent," won't be able to "handle the pressure," and are "disrespecting the game" by untucking their shirts when they shake hands after a win, the aphorisms which expose the not-so-subtle racism which is still very much a part of the baseball sportswriting and broadcasting establishment.  Don't be misled!  The Brewers "untucked" tradition is a testament to Mike Cameron's father, symbolic of a hard day's work and a job well done.  Cameron, Hall, and Ray Durham are grizzled veterans who have made long big league careers thanks in large part to their work ethic, diligence, studiousness, and willingness to do whatever necessary to help their team.  None of them was drafted higher than the 5th round.  Hall has play four different positions (2B, 3B, SS, CF) in the last three seasons, all of them demanding.  Cameron is a three-time gold-glover winner, esteemed around the league both for his personality and contributions on and off the field.  His Cam4Kids foundation, established in 2001 is dedicated to helping inner-city kids.  He is active is several other charity organizations as well.  Many though Durham's career was over after he hit .218 with the Giants in 2007, but he has brought is average back above .290 and his OBP above .380 in '08, right in line with his career numbers.  Despite spending his entire career as a starter, he immediately accepted his role as utility infielder and pinch hitter for the Brewers, embracing the opportunity to mentor Rickie Weeks and get long sought-after opportunity to go deep into the playoffs.  Since Durham arrived, Weeks is batting .400 with 6 runs, 2 extra-base hits, and 4 RBI, in four games.  

I've sung the praises of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun for almost two years now, so you already know I consider them the most talented duo in all of baseball.  But there are now many more reasons to Beware the Brewers!

The New Nightmare

This weekend two of the best sluggers in baseball will be in Boston, taking aim at the Green Monster.  It's a 3-4 combo featuring a lanky, defensively-challenged, somewhat surly right-handed left-fielder and an intimidatingly large, but ever-smiling, defensively-challenged left-handed first baseman.  It might be one of the best hitting pairs in baseball history.  I know, you may be asking yourself, "Don't these guys play in Boston, like, every weekend?"

Well, no, because I'm talking about Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers.  Since Braun arrived in the majors just less than a year ago, he and Fielder have combined for 84 HR and 232 RBI, significantly more than Manny and Big Papi over the same span (55 HR, 196 RBI).  More than any 3-4 combo in baseball, for that matter, combos like A-Rod/Abreu (58 HR, 227 RBI), Berkman/El Cabayo (74 HR, 225 RBI), and D-Lee/Ramirez (50 HR, 176 RBI).  Moreover, while each of those pairs features two mature players, every one of them over the age of 30, Fielder and Braun have a combined age of 48 years, 6 months, and 3 days.

In other words, together they are younger than recently retired Julio Franco.  

Like Manny and Papi, they have a very strong supporting cast, especially on offense, most of whom are also quite young.  What the Brew Crew doesn't have, is pitching depth, which is why they are likely to get pummeled this weekend by the superior Red Sox team, who will send Beckett, Dice-K, and Wakefield to the mound to face Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and Carlos Villanueva.  Despite a dramatically overhauled mercenary bullpen (Gagne, Riske, Torres, and Mota all signed this past offseason), the Brewers are among the league's worst in blown saves and bullpen ERA (8 BS, 4.37 ERA).  Strangely, despite the continued dominance of Papelbon (2.41, 11 SV) and Okajima (0.93, 9 HLD, 1 SV), Boston's relief corps have been pretty putrid as well (8 BS, 4.56 ERA).  If starting pitching fails to contain these two potent offenses, we could see some real slugfests.  

MVP? (or NYC)

I like David Wright. I certainly like him a lot more than Derek Jeter. But with all the promotion of him for NL MVP, I'd have to say he's benefiting from the Jeter treatment (or, if you prefer, "the New York media bias"). Wright is more deserving of consideration than Jeter was last year, but he should by no means be the favorite.

It is essentially a four-horse race for the NL's premier award (much more intriguing than the one-horse race in the AL). The injury to Albert Pujols and the Cardinals collapse eliminates a perennial MVP favorite. Ryan Howard made a push to defend his 2006 crown, but a 7-for-45 stretch at the beginning of September probably put his campaign to rest. Hanley Ramirez will no doubt garner some much-deserved votes, but it is difficult to get elected league MVP when your team's record is worse than the Washington Nationals. That leaves Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Jimmy Rollins, and Wright. All four play for teams that are still in contention with a week to play, although it is reasonable to suspect that only Wright's Mets will actually advance, which may be his biggest advantage.

If you're looking for offensive statistics, Holliday is clearly your man. The 2007 winner of the Jay Buhner look-alike contest leads the NL in average (.341), RBI (131), Hits (205), and 2B (48). He is 2nd is SLG (.616), 3rd in OPS (1.017), 4th in HR (36) and Runs (112). Whether it is fair or not, those gaudy numbers will be viewed with suspicion because of Colorado's notoriously hitter-friendly conditions. It is true that Holliday pace away from Coors Field is a little more modest, though still admirable (.303-22 HR-108 RBI-867 OPS).

Milwaukee's Prince Fielder, the runaway 2007 NL HR-King, is powerful everywhere he goes, with 24 homers in his friendly confines and 23 on the road. He's batted a respectable .291 with 117 RBI, 107 R, and a 1.007 OPS. I've heard several commentators suggest that Fielder's MVP chances ride upon Milwaukee getting into the playoffs. I find this logic somewhat flawed, seeing as players like Wright and Rollins take already potent offenses and make them into powerhouses, while Fielder makes an at-best league average offense into a serious contender. Every year, MVP discussions revolve around the success of a player's franchise. Notably, last year Albert Pujols criticized voters for electing Howard because the Phillies didn't make it into October. If Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Colorado all scuffle this week, does that mean Wright should be the default MVP, even if he takes a ten-day O-fer? Personally, I agree that players like Hanley Ramirez can be ruled out of the equation (unless they have truly superlative seasons) because they never played a meaningful game after July, but anybody who is tested by the pennant race, whether their team makes it or not, deserves equal consideration.

Fielder will also be criticized because he is a defensive hack. That's absolutely valid. Defense should be taken into consideration when MVP awards are being handed out, by definition. However, if you're ready to anoint David Wright on those grounds, you need to look past reputation. Sure, Wright makes some spectacular highlight-reel plays (much like that Yankee shortstop). But, those of us who keep watching Baseball Tonight after we see the New York scores know that he isn't the only third baseman in the NL capable of creating Web Gems. Moreover, he isn't nearly as consistent as Scott Rolen, Aramis Ramirez, Chipper Jones, and Pedro Feliz. Wright is a league-average third baseman. Granted, in a league of very good third basemen. Should he receive some credit for that? Sure. Is it equivalent to 10 HR and 20 RBI? No way. (By the way, it should be noted that Matt Holliday has been a very solid outfielder this year. In fact, if Gold Gloves were still handed out to left-fielders, he would probably be running neck-and-neck with Arizona's Eric Byrnes.)

In another aside, Bill James invented a fashionable statistic a few years back, Runs Created. It is supposed to assess a players overall worth. I don't understand how it works exactly, but it seems to be a pretty competent method of assessment. It is interesting to note that Wright, Fielder, and Holliday rank 4, 5, and 6 in the NL in Runs Created per 27 Outs. (They rank behind Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones, and Chase Utley, all of whom would be in this discussion if they didn't miss so many games) All of them have been worth between 8.43 and 8.48 RC/27, which is a good indication of how close this race really is.

That brings us to the long-shot case for Jimmy Rollins. Rollins has a lot going against him. In the last 25 years, only three position players have won the MVP who weren't prototypical middle-of-the-order/power hitters: Ichiro Suzuki (2001), Rickey Henderson (1990), and Willie McGee (1985). Making his road more difficult is the fact that only three MVPs in the last fifteen years have come from teams on which another player finished in the top 5 in voting: Ichiro (2001), Jeff Kent (2000), and Ivan Rodriguez (1999). Rollins will undoubtedly lose a few critical votes to teammates Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Rollins will not have a top-ten finish in average (.293), HR (28), RBI (88), OPS (869), or RC/27 (6.73). However, when you add some of his peripheral numbers to very respectable totals in those core categories, you realize that his season has truly been something special. He leads the league in runs (129) and 3B (18) by a sizable margin. He's second in hits (197). He will get serious consideration for the Gold Glove at shortstop. And he's stolen 37 (5th in NL) bases in 43 attempts. Much has been made of Curtis Granderson's 20-20-20-20 season, as should be the case seeing as it is only the third in baseball history. Nobody seems to have noticed that Rollins needs only two more triples and two more homers to go 30-20-30-30. Not a single player has ever done that.