Fantastic Thoughts: "A. J. Pierzynski is no longer very good...if he ever was." (Fantasy Baseball Catcher Preview)

I'm going to keep things simple and leadoff with a quote from last year:


"There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop."


That .275-70-15-70 line was even more unattainable than usual for backstops in 2010.  Only one catcher topped 70 R (Mauer).  Only four topped 70 RBI (Mauer, McCann, Martinez, and Kurt Suzuki).  And only five hit upwards of .275 in 400 or more plate appearances (Mauer, Martinez, Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, and John Buck).  Which only further emphasizes my point that it's silly to pay for a middle-tier catcher when you could've had players like Buck, Ruiz, Posey, and Miguel Olivo for next to nothing.  Moreover, some of the usually "safe" middle-tier selections - Pierzynski, the Molinas, Hernandez - suffered significantly down seasons.  


The result is that we've got a pretty top-heavy class in 2011.  


1. Joe Mauer, MIN
2. Victor Martinez, DET
3. Brian McCann, ATL


Nothing's changed.  These were my top three in 2010 and have all been top five for most of their careers.  I do think McCann is somewhat of a distant third, just because he doesn't hit for a high average and doesn't have the luxury of getting some "off days" at DH, but he's also got more power than Mauer or V-Mart.  


4. Buster Posey, SFG
5. Geovany Soto, CHC
6. Carlos Santana, CLE


I've seen a lot of analysts ranking Posey as high as #1 or #2, but I just don't see any reason why we should believe he's immune to the sophomore slump.  Sure, his talent is superlative, but I'd like to see at least one more year of exceptional production before I'm ready to rank him alongside a three-time batting champ and a four-time All-Star.  I actually flirted with dropping him to fifth.  The reason?  Do you know who led all catchers (with 300+ AB) in OPS last season?  It wasn't Posey.  It wasn't Mauer, Martinez, or McCann.  It was Geovany Soto.  He only got 97 starts, but hit .280 with 17 HR and 53 RBI.  Now that Lou Pinella had fled Chicago, Soto will likely be in line for increased playing time and could be considered an elite catching option by this time next year.


7. Jorge Posada, NYY
8. Miguel Montero, ARZ
9. Matt Wieters, BAL
10. Mike Napoli, TEX


Sadly, this is what passes for "tried and true" among the 2011 catching corps: a 39-year-old DH with several trips to the DL in his recent past, a 27-year-old who's started upwards of 75 games only once in his career, a former blue-chip prospect who had a sub-700 OPS in 2010, and a defensively-challenged power-hitter who doesn't have a clear hold on at-bats with his new franchise.  I rank them this way because I assume at least two of the four will finish well inside the top ten in terms of production by the end of the season, but in a one-catcher league I wouldn't touch any of these guys unless they fell deep on draft day or came at a significantly reduced rate (i.e. under $10).


11. Russell Martin, NYY
12. J. P. Arencibia, TOR
13. John Buck, FLA


These are the most interesting late-round flier/sleeper candidates.  Martin used to be a stud, but after two down years, the Dodgers essentially gave up on him.  If he's healthy, he's a solid bet for comeback of the year in New York, playing alongside his childhood hero, Derek Jeter.  The Jays showed their faith in Arencibia by letting Buck walk and trading Napoli to Texas.  The rookie has serious power potential at the Skydome, but could be an average drain in 5X5 leagues.  Buck is coming off a spectacular breakout season in which he was a top-five fantasy catcher, but he'd look dangerously like a fluke even if he weren't moving to a much less friendly ballpark in Florida.  


14. Carlos Ruiz, PHI
15. Kurt Suzuki, OAK
16. Yadier Molina, STL
17. Miguel Olivo, SEA
18. A. J. Pierzynski, CWS


You probably aren't interested in any of these guys unless it's a two-catcher league, but in that format they are quite valuable.  All are "iron-men" types whose managers keep them in the lineup as much for defense as anything else, but all those starts lead to decent totals in the counting categories.  You just have to cross your fingers that they won't destroy your average.


19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS
20. Chris Iannetta, COL
21. Jason Castro, HOU
22. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL


This is the second tier of high-risk, high-reward candidates.  They're all fairly young.  They've all got some upside.  And they all seem in line for full-time jobs.  That could certainly change.  Both Saltalamacchia and Iannetta have been given chances before.  They've always bombed.  But this could be the year, right?


23. Jesus Flores, WAS
24. Ramon Hernandez, CIN
25. Ryan Doumit, PIT
26. John Jaso, TB
27. Chris Snyder, PIT
28. Ryan Hanigan, CIN
29. Kelly Shoppach, TB 


When it comes to catching platoons, it really comes down to how much room you have on your rosters and how much you're willing to work for it.  Last year in Cincinnati, Hernandez and Hanigan combined for 55 R, 12 HR, 88 RBI, and a .298 AVG.  If you were cagey enough to have the right guy in your lineup every night, that line would've been equivalent to drafting a top-five backstop.  Can you get Cincinnati's daily lineup delivered straight to your phone?  I bet you could.  Will you?


The more reasonable sleeper here is Flores, who, before losing nearly two years to surgery, seemed to be developing into a solid hitter.  He's still just 26.  The Nationals catching situation, which also involves Pudge Rodriguez (questing after 3000 hits) and top prospect Wilson Ramos, is crowded, so Flores is unlikely to get a lot of opportunities in D.C., but there are several team's that might be willing to give him an everyday job and will be watching he progress closely during Spring Training.


30. Hank Conger, LAA
31. Wilson Ramos, WAS
32. Jesus Montero, NYY
33. Tyler Flowers, CWS


These are baseball's best major-league ready catching prospects.  Unfortunately, there's a strong chance most of them won't see substantial time in 2011.  Mike Scioscia seems committed to a folly named Jeff Mathis in Anaheim.  The White Sox resigned A. J. Pierzynski, despite a poor showing in 2010.  Wilson Ramos is blocked by Flores and Pudge; Montero by Martin and Posada.  However, injury or ineffectiveness could supply them with opportunity.  Were that to happen, they would immediately be fantasy relevant, even worthy of consideration inside the top 12-15 catchers.  


34. Rod Barajas, LAD
35. Alex Avila, DET
36. Yorvit Torrealba, SD
37. Jason Kendall, KC
38. Ivan Rodriguez, WAS


Somewhere, somehow your draft must have gone horribly wrong.

Motown Ready For Rebound?

I've run hot and cold on the tenure of Dave Dombrowski.  I believe that the contract he gave Miguel Cabrera (8 yrs./$152 Mil.) may turn out to be one of the best and most value-driven nine-figure contracts in the game's history.  But that value has been more than offset by excessive contracts handed to Carlos Guillen, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis, among others.

I railed against the trading of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson last winter, but Austin Jackson and Max Scherzer gave Tigers fans lots to be optimistic about this season.  They're both young and inexpensive, and both showed flashes of brilliance.  Meanwhile, both Granderson and E-Jax had down years.  For now, it looks like Dombrowski bested both the Yankees and the D-Backs.  However, he turned around and made a predictably disastrous play for Johnny Damon.  Again, bad decisions offset good decisions.

Now, with Magglio Ordonez, Robertson, and Willis finally coming off the books, Dombrowski has more payroll space than he's had since the Tigers went to the World Series in 2006.  Dombrowski is one of the most active GMs every offseason, but this year he's taking it to a new level.  The Giants had barely finished their parade before the Tigers had announced half a dozen offseason moves.  Most notably, Dombrowski quickly resigned shortstop, Jhonny Peralta, and third baseman, Brandon Inge.  Then he snapped up free agent reliever, Joaquin Benoit.  And, most recently, he tabbed switch-hitting backstop, Victor Martinez.

V-Mart is easy to love.  He's one of the top five hitters at his position, possibly higher (only Joe Mauer is clearly better).  He's beloved by his teammates.  He's utterly consistent (OPS+ between 122 and 130 in every season except injury-plagued '08).  He's got a strong reputation as a game-caller and field general.  However, his age and his inability to control the running game in recent seasons suggest he is probably destined to be a first-baseman or DH by the end of this contract, at which point his production will merely be league-average for his position.

Benoit was arguably the best reliever in the American League last year.  However, $16.5 Million is a lot of money for a 33-year-old reliever who's coming off his best season, is only a year removed from a major injury, and isn't even your closer.  Dombrowski wasn't willing to go to $15 Million for Brandon Lyon last year, even though Lyon was significantly younger, had a better track record, and more closing experience.

In general, there seems to be an inconsistency of philosophy in Detroit's front office.  In '07 and '08 they spent wildly on offensive-minded players like Cabrera, Guillen, Edgar Renteria, and Gary Sheffield.  Then they reversed course and went with slick fielders like Adam Everett and Gerald Laird.  Now they've once again hired Iron Gloves at key defensive positions.  In every case, they've overpaid slightly for what they're prioritizing.  It's a hard pattern to get behind.

All this activity will promote speculation that the Tigers have moved within striking distance of the White Sox and Twins, both of whom have been utterly quiet thus far.  The division-leading Twins lost nearly their entire bullpen to free agency, as well as their winningest pitcher, their second baseman, and their beloved DH.  The Sox also lost a couple of key relievers, as well as their most productive hitter and their longtime catcher.  Plus Chicago still has question marks at third, in right, and at DH.  Until the offseason shakes out, we won't really know how much of the gap Dombrowski has closed.

That said, if he plans on making a serious run, not only at the AL Central title, but at a pennant, there is still a lot of work to be done.  The pitcher staff is very promising.  Justin Verlander, Scherzer, Rick Porcello, and Armando Galarraga comprise a youthful, high-upside rotation.  An additional innings-eater would certainly be nice, but shouldn't be Detroit's top priority.  The bullpen, led by Benoit and Jose Valverde, and supported by young power arms like Daniel Schlereth, Ryan Perry, and Joel "Cross Your Fingers" Zumaya, should also be a strength.  And V-Mart, combined with perennial MVP candidate, Cabrera, make for a legit middle-of-the-order tandem.

The rest of the regulars, however, provide cause for concern, both offensively and defensively. The Tigers outfield situation is very uncertain.  Both Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch had nice rookie campaigns, but their underlying stats suggest they are prime candidates for sophomore slumps.  Jackson's .293 average was boosted by a frankly unsustainable .396 average on balls in play.  His defense should keep him on the field, but he may struggle to be a competent tablesetter.  Boesch's production fell off the table in the second half of 2010, to an extent which suggests his hold on a starting position in 2011 is hardly guaranteed.  The other options currently at Dombrowski's disposal are no more encouraging.  Utilityman, Ryan Raburn, and September call-up, Casper Wells, both played well in limited exposure, but neither profiles as anything more than replacement level at a corner-outfield spot.

The infield defense, especially up the middle, where lead-footed veterans Carlos Guillen and Jhonny Peralta are expected to play, could be among the worst in the AL.  Inefficiency at converting outs could be dangerous for young arms like Scherzer and Porcello, not to mention frustrating for all involved.  As such, Dombrowski may be interested in a slick-fielding second-baseman like Orlando Hudson, which would allow Guillen to be the primary DH, which might help him stay healthy.  Other options could be resigning Magglio Ordonez or another, similar outfield/DH option who could come at a reasonable price.  Vladimir Guerrero, Lance Berkman, Pat Burrell, and Hideki Matsui are some free agents who might fit the profile.  Earlier in the week I also suggest Josh Willingham could be a trade target on the Tigers radar.

As busy as Dombrowski has been early in the Hot Stove season, I think he's still two or three moves away from contending with teams like the Rangers, Yankees, and Rays.

Where have all the sluggers gone? (Hot Stove Preview)

I'm going to assume that early reports that Hiroki Kuroda has signed a one-year, $12 Million contract to stay with the Dodgers are true.  If so, I think it's safe to say he gave them a home-town discount.  Kuroda was arguably the second-best starting pitcher on the market this winter.  With the exception of missing some time in 2009, Koruda has been extremely steady in the Dodger rotation over the last three seasons, posting a 3.60 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.  FanGraphs estimated his worth this past season at around $17 Million.  Even though he is 35, he probably could've sought at least two or three years at $8-$10 Million per, considering his recent performance and the relative sparsity of free agent pitchers this offseason.  Consider, as a comparable, that Randy Wolf got three years, $30 Million last season from Milwaukee.  

Wrapping up Koruda for less money than he made the last two seasons represents a minor coup for Ned Colletti, who will likely be cash-strapped again this winter, as the McCourt divorce doesn't seem anywhere near resolution.  The Dodgers are coming off a very disappointing season, but at least they have some stability in the rotation with Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw.  Colletti can concentrate solely on finding a middle-of-the-order presence to pair with Andre Ethier.  Considering his financial limitations, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he looks long and hard at potential trade targets like Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran, and Dan Uggla.  Los Angeles possesses a notoriously deep farm system, though Colletti is unlikely to mortgage his top talents unless he believes it will bring the kind of bat (like Fielder) who makes the Dodgers immediate favorites in the NL West.

Here's my first look at some of the other names you're likely to hear a lot in the next month...

Premium Free Agents:

1. Cliff Lee (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: New York Yankees, Texas Rangers

In the last fifteen months, Cliff Lee has sure made up for all those years he spent being underrated in Cleveland.  Some went so far as to call him the best postseason pitcher in history after two straight impressive Octobers with the Phillies and Rangers.  Now he's primed to chase his friend and former teammate's mark for the largest average annual value in a multiyear contract for a starting pitcher.  Since he's already in his thirties, teams may be reluctant to give Lee more than five years, but they may very well offer close to $25 Million per season.  Also, although Lee is a talent any team would be interested in, several of the deepest pocketbooks this winter - Boston, Seattle, Detroit, etc. - aren't likely to chase pitching, which means it could come down to a bidding war between the Yankees and Rangers.

Hippeaux's Prediction: New York Yankees (6 Yrs./$140 Million)

2. Carl Crawford (Left Field)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox 

Crawford is in the pleasant position of being clearly the best hitter among a relatively thin class in the offseason following a severe league-wide offensive backslide.  Crawford is the perfect player for team preparing to compete in a "pitcher's era."  Not only is he a .300 hitter with decent power, but he is also an excellent baserunner and basestealer who is probably the best defender in the sport at his position.  He's not yet thirty, but Crawford has already played nine full seasons, and only once did he fail to top 140 games.  And, as if that weren't enough, he's reputed for his intangibles as well: a clubhouse leader in Tampa with a tireless work ethic and the charisma to illicit the same from his teammates.  The bidding will be steep.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Boston Red Sox (7 Yrs./$130 Million)

3. Jayson Werth (Right Field)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals

Crawford may be "The Perfect Storm," but Werth is hardly short on tools.  He's got power, speed, discipline, range, and an excellent throwing arm.  He's also coming off easily the best year of his career and will be 32 in May of next year.  There is reason to be cautious.  We may have just witnessed his peak.  That isn't to say that he won't be fairly productive for several more years, but the team that chooses to give him a nine-figure contract could soon find themselves with an Soriano-sized albatross.  And who, besides the Cubs, has a penchant for such signings?

Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (6 Yrs./$100 Million)

4. Adrian Beltre (Third Base)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians

Beltre has his best season since 2004 and was a legitimate candidate for the AL MVP, which made Theo Epstein look like a bit a genius for signing him to a one-year, $9 Million deal.  However, it may have served to make him even more of an enigma.  Was his relatively modest production during his five years in Seattle really just a product of the ballpark?  Is it possible he's one of those players who only steps it up during contract years?  Was he inspired by playing for a contender (just as he did in '04)?  There's no easy answer to these questions, which makes it hard to ante up for the 2010 Beltre (worth over $28 Million according to FanGraphs), when you may end up with the 2009 Beltre (worth less than $12 Million).  Somebody will gamble, but not for more than three years.  

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$45 Million)

5. Adam Dunn (First Base/DH)

Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals

Never has a player with five consecutive forty-homer season garnered so little interest as Adam Dunn did in 2009.  His pathetic outfield defense and his massive strikeout totals scared all the contenders away, forcing Dunn to accept a two-year, $20 Million deal with the Nationals, even though he was a 29-year-old slugger.  I would say, the hate was too great.  Dunn has since moved to first base and, in all likelihood, is headed to DH at some point in the near future.  All the while he's continued to hit moonshots.  76 of them during his two years in Washington.  Only Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder had more.  With power numbers falling around in the league, teams might have a little more patience for Dunn's limitations this offseason.  The Big Donkey is not without his charms.  He's basically unbreakable, having never missed more than ten games, since 2003.  And he has a career OBP of .381, which is better than Mark Teixeira ($181 Million) or Ryan Howard ($125 Million), among others.

As a little sidenote, with 354 homers entering the 2011 season, Dunn may be the first "untainted" player to reach the 500 HR plateau and not gain entrance to the Hall of Fame.  Dunn has never been connected to steroids, though he played through the tailend of that "era," and his utter consistency in the power department has discouraged those who are otherwise prone to aimless speculation.  However, he's only garnered MVP consideration twice (perhaps this year is the third?) and has never finished with more than four points (1%).  He's been named to just one All-Star team (2002).  He hasn't been awarded any noteworthy hardware.  And, despite his consistently stellar power numbers, he's never led the league in anything except walks (once) and strikeouts (thrice).  For me, it's hard to sell him as one of the best players in the history of the game.  But barring catastrophe, he's almost sure to join the 500 HR club sometime in the next five years (he'll probably be its 27th member).  That will make him a very hard case for Hall of Fame voters.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Texas Rangers (3 Yrs./$36 Million)

6. Victor Martinez (Catcher/First Base)

Top Suitors: Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets

Matt Klaasen of Beyond the Box Score (among other things) recently released his Catcher Defense Rankings for the 2010 season.  To nobody's great surprise, V-Mart ranked near the bottom (#114 of 120, to be exact).  Being "better than Jorge Posada" may not be enough for Martinez's next employer, but V-Mart's value on the free agent market is much higher when tied to his ability to produce well above the standards for backstops.  To be fair, there are some things that Klassen's rankings cannot account for.  By all reports, V-Mart is a great field general, clubhouse leader, and game-caller.  Those things were certainly enough to keep marquee hitters like Posada, Jason Varitek, and Gary Carter behind the plate long after they stopped excelling at blocking balls and controlling the running game.  That said, I think it's in the best interests of V-Mart's next team to have a contingency plan, so I expect he won't be headed anywhere that has a long-range commitment at 1B and/or DH.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Detroit Tigers (4 Yrs./$50 Million)

7. Aubrey Huff (First Base/Outfield)

Top Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves

I'm a serious Huff fan.  I even went so far as to make his case for NL MVP this year.  But even I have to be a little wary of a 34-year-old with a history of back and knee injuries coming off a career year.  Huff looked fantastic in 2010.  He came to camp in great shape and showed no ill effects following his derailed '09 campaign.  He even played better than average defense at multiple positions and stole seven bases, the second highest total of his career.  Huff, who, to be honest, has been perennially underpaid, will cite these accomplishments and his playoff heroics while lobbying for the biggest contract of his career.  (His 3 Yr./$20 Million contract with Baltimore wasn't exactly a megadeal.)  So long as the buyer doesn't go much beyond that, I can't fault them.  The potential reward well outweighs the risk.

Hippeaux's Prediction: San Francisco Giants (3 Yrs./$25 Million)

8. Paul Konerko (First Base)

Top Suitors: Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals

Um...ditto?

Like Huff, Konerko is coming off the best year in his long, very solid career, the last dozen seasons of which have been spent in Chicago.  He's a year older than Huff and has made about $50 Million more over the course of his career so far.  I see little reason for him to look for a change of scenery and the White Sox don't exactly have a stable of young sluggers waiting in the wings.  Konerko may even give the ChiSox a moderate hometown discount, especially if they're willing to work in some incentives and/or mutual option years.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago White Sox (3 Yrs./$30 Million + mutual option)

9. Carl Pavano (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs

Note that it's a steep drop between the top starting pitchers on the market this winter, which only improves Cliff Lee's bargaining position.  I rate Pavano slightly ahead of Kuroda, de la Rosa, Jake Westbrook, and Javier Vazquez, but it's a really close call.  All have substantial risk with moderate upside.  Four things are working against all these guys.  1.) The really big-market clubs have their hearts set on Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, or hitters.  2.) Many mid-market franchises are running scared because of the obvious fiscal danger of signing middling free agent pitchers to lengthy contracts (see Suppan, Jeff; Silva, Carlos; etc.).  3.) Coming off "the year of the pitcher," fewer teams than usual are feeling pressed to make major changes in their rotations.  4.) Everybody and their mother has realized the importance of "young pitching," so teams are finding it easier to sell their fan bases on rookies like Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Minor, Kyle Drabek, and Brad Lincoln.

Having been one of those middling starters who got dramatically overpaid several year back, Pavano's probably not cursing the situation quite so much as his younger peers.

Hippeaux's Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals (3 Yrs./$25 Million)

10. Jorge de la Rosa (Starting Pitcher)

Top Suitors: Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Seattle Mariners

Jorge de la Rosa won't yet be 30 on Opening Day, which can be said of very, very few of the pitchers on the market this winter.  It's also very possible that we haven't yet seen the best of him.  His WHIP and his ERA have improved in each of the last four seasons, while his strikeout and walk rates have remained steady.  Also, he's been pitching in the very unfriendly confines of Coors Field.  One could certainly see how a desperate GM could talk himself into a lengthy, Gil Meche-type deal for southpaw.

On the other hand, de la Rosa has missed a lot of time.  He's managed 30+ starts only once, in '09.  He's had several stretches of brilliance, including the final six weeks of this year, but he's never been able to perform at that level for a whole season.  Maybe he never will.  If Jorge really wants to maximize his earnings in the long-term, he should probably take a one-year deal and prove he's the pitcher he looked like in August and September.  If he did that, he'd probably be looking at $40-$50 Million in the winter of 2011.  In not, he'll probably be setting for around $7 Million a year for the next three or four seasons.

Hippeaux's Prediction: Chicago Cubs (4 Yrs./$35 Million) Just because I fully expect Jim Hendry to do something stupid this winter and it might as well be this.

Later in the week I'll take a look at the primary trade targets...

Offseason Prospectus #11: The Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have been, as usual, one of the most active franchises of the offseason. Less than 24 hours after the official end of the season, Theo Epstein pulled off a somewhat surprising trade with the Florida Marlins that landed the Sox former "blue chip" prospect, Jeremy Hermida. Hermida has been a disappointment the past couple seasons (734 OPS), but is still only 26, perfectly capable of developing into a competent everyday player, though perhaps not the superstar scouts once imagined.

The same could be said of Boof Bonser, who Boston acquired last week for a player to be named later. Bonser missed the entirety of 2009 with a shoulder injury, but should be ready in time for 2010. Another former first-round pick, Boof never lived up to expectations in Minnesota, but he is only 28. Boston may see him as insurance for the rotation or as a potential reliever.

The Red Sox first free agent signing was Marco Scutaro, who inked a three-year deal (w/option) worth $14-17 Million. The framework of the deal suggests the Red Sox realize that by the end of his contract the 34-year-old infielder may be nothing more than a well-paid utilityman. Epstein hopes that Scutaro can equal what he did as Toronto's shortstop last season for at least one more year, while the front office monitors the health of Jed Lowrie and the maturation of Jose Iglesias.

Following Scutaro was a much more high profile prize, John Lackey, the best starting pitcher in the 2010 free agent class. Some, including myself, question whether Lackey is a true Ace, capable of leading the rotation of a contender, but in Boston he won't need to be. He will slot in behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, and alongside Daisuke Matsuzaka, giving Boston quite possibly the most intimidating front four in the American League. The addition of Lackey will take a little pressure off of a rehabilitating Dice-K and the youths who will likely compete for the final spot: Clay Buchholz (the front-runner after his fine conclusion to 2009), Bonser, and Michael Bowden.

On the same day the news of Lackey's signing broke, it was announced that the Red Sox were close to a deal with Mike Cameron, the veteran Gold Glove centerfielder. If his contract gets finalized, Cameron will become the Red Sox only right-handed outfielder. He should make an excellent, versatile platoon man. In all likelihood, he will even get a fair number of at-bats against righties, as he fills in during J. D. Drew's inevitable injuries and the equally inevitable cold streaks from the young and inconsistent tandem of Hermida and Jacoby Ellsbury. Cameron has been known throughout his career as a wonderful, charitable citizen and popular clubhouse presence, as well as a fine player, so he offers more than just production to a team that seemed to struggle with chemistry at time in 2009.

Finally, on the last day of the winter meetings Boston shocked the baseball world by announcing the trade of Mike Lowell (and $9 Million) to the Rangers for Max Ramirez, a prospect who is currently considered a catcher, but whose future with the Red Sox is likely as a first baseman or designated hitter. Lowell was one of the Red Sox most popular players and a clubhouse leader, but his value has been depressed by a hip surgery which limited him severely in 2009. Nonetheless, if the deal goes through (the deal has been delayed by Lowell's medical reports) Red Sox fans very well may regret it, especially this season, as they'll be paying three quarters of Lowell's salary so he can play for another team. This deal is probably more about coveting Max Ramirez than giving up on Lowell. Ramirez is only 25-years-old and has played only seventeen major league games, but has already been traded straight up for Bob Wickman (2006), Kenny Lofton (2007), and now Lowell. That's because, although Ramirez probably won't do much catching after 2010, he can rake. He is the kind of hitter who, if given an opportunity, could be very, very productive from the moment he enters the league (think Pablo Sandoval, Ryan Howard, etc.). The Ramirez trade and, indeed, all the work Theo Epstein has done so far this winter, anticipate major questions which the Red Sox will have to answer by this time next year.

Free Agents:

Rocco Baldelli (28) OF
Jason Bay (31) LF
Alex Gonzalez (33) SS [Signed with Toronto Blue Jays]
Billy Wagner (38) LHRP [Signed with Atlanta Braves]

Arbitration Eligible:

Brian Anderson (28) OF
Boof Bonser (28) RHSP
Manny Delcarmen (28) RHRP
Jeremy Hermida (26) OF
Casey Kotchman (27) 1B
Hideki Okajima (34) LHRP
Jonathan Papelbon (29) RHRP
Ramon Ramirez (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Michael Bowden (23) RHSP
Max Ramirez (24) C/DH
Josh Reddick (23) OF
Junichi Tazawa (24) RHSP

What's the price of nostalgia?

Currently, only three players from the 2004 World Series roster are still wearing Red Sox uniforms: David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, and Tim Wakefield. Next winter Papi and 'Tek will be free agents (Wakefield has two years left on his contract), as will Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez. There are a number of sentimental reasons to resign all four players, but Theo has proven himself to be largely immune to sentimentality; the Lowell trade being only the most recent example. This is a man who unceremoniously traded Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez, and who allowed wildly popular players like Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, and Pedro Martinez to walk because he didn't think they would be fiscally responsible signings. It is hard to find a fault with his track record. It is probably a foregone conclusion that Varitek will retire at the end of the season, but the other three are much more difficult to evaluate. Much is riding on there performances in 2010.

Was last spring a fluke or the shape of things to come?

In the first two months of 2009, David Ortiz hit .185 with one lonely home run. The Slump got so bad that even Red Sox fanatics like Bill Simmons were declaring Big Papi "done." However, from June 1st to the end of the season, Ortiz hit 27 HR, had 81 RBI, and posted an OPS of 904. Over the same four month period MVP candidates like Mark Texeira (23 HR, 78 RBI, 931 OPS), Miguel Cabrera (24 HR, 66 RBI, 921 OPS), and Kendry Morales (26 HR, 78 RBI, 964 OPS) posted very similar numbers. (I hate to say I told you so, but, well, I did.) If Big Papi produces at the latter rate in 2010, he will probably get the opportunity to sign a contract that assures he ends his career in a Red Sox uniform. However, if he again shows signs of premature decline, even over the short term, he will probably be next winter's version of Vladimir Guerrero, a legendary slugger who's currently being treated like a third-tier free agent.

Who is the face of the franchise for the "20-teens"?

With Manny gone, Varitek's departure imminent, and Papi in moderate decline, the Red Sox suffered from an obvious leadership vacuum in 2009, especially prior to the arrival of Victor Martinez. The competitive intensity of Kevin Youkilis often rubbed teammates the wrong way. Jonathan Papelbon and Josh Beckett appear too often as arrogant, self-involved, or, in Paps case, just a little dumb. Dustin Pedroia, the 2008 AL MVP, is the obvious answer, as his reputation for fierceness on the field is equaled by his good-humored disposition off of it. However, like Ortiz, Pedroia's influence seemed to fade as his stats came back to earth a little in 2009. The Red Sox really gelled upon the arrival of V-Mart, who possessed a similarly strong cohesive presence in Cleveland. If this trend continues, Boston's front office will be even more inclined to resign him next winter, though probably as a first-baseman, not a catcher.

Can Tito juggle all these All-Stars?

In the latter part of 2009, Terry Francona was faced with the daunting task of rotating Martinez, Varitek, Youkilis, Lowell, and Ortiz in a wild C/1B/3B/DH platoon. 2010 won't be any easier.

C: Ramirez, Martinez, Varitek

1B: Youkilis, Martinez, Kotchman

2B: Pedroia, Scutaro, Lowrie

3B: Youkilis, Scutaro, Lowrie

SS: Scutaro, Lowrie

OF: Ellsbury, Drew, Cameron, Hermida

DH: Ortiz, Ramirez, Martinez

Francona has the luxury of depth at almost every position, which gives him defense against the injuries which often hamper veteran clubs. But it will be a challenge of finding ample opportunities for thirteen position players who are all accustomed to playing everyday. There is also the question of 22-year-old Lars Anderson, the Red Sox top hitting prospect. If he doesn't get traded, he could be ready to enter the 1B/DH mix as early as midseason. At some point, having too many big talents and big egos fighting over the same positions could become a source of distraction and dissent in the Red Sox clubhouse. Or, if everything gels, it could make them a powerhouse offense equal to or surpassing the Yankees.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/24):

LF Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
2B Dustin Pedroia (R)
C Victor Martinez (S)
1B Kevin Youkilis (R)
DH David Ortiz (L)

RF J. D. Drew (L)
3B Adrian Beltre (R)
CF Mike Cameron (R)
SS Marco Scutaro (R)

SP Jon Lester (L)
SP Josh Beckett (R)
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (R)
SP John Lackey (R)
SP Clay Buchholz (R)

CL Jonathan Papelbon (R)
SU Daniel Bard (R)
SU Hideki Okajima (L)
MR Ramon Ramirez (R)
MR Manny Delcarmen (R)
LOOGY Dustin Richardson (L)
SWING Tim Wakefield (R)

C Jason Varitek (S)
1B/3B Mike Lowell (R)
IF Jed Lowrie (S)
OF Jeremy Hermida (L)

The Red Sox Special @ V-Mart

The BoSox may have made the most surprising acquisition of this trade deadline when they landed Victor Martinez for the package of Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price. Much has been made of the fact that the deal makes Terry Francona the operator of an unconventional merry-go-round of five proud veterans at six positions. That quintet of Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and Jason Varitek has combined for a somewhat astonishing 17 All-Star appearances, seven times have finished in the top five in MVP voting, and three of them own Gold Gloves (and Youkilis will probably make it four at some point in his young career). They'll make a cool $41.5 million this season.

To Francona falls the delicate task of telling one of these men each day that their name won't be on the lineup card. It's not all bad news. After all, with the exception of Youkilis, all are 30-years-or-older, so they could probably use a little rest. The BoSox manager will also be blessed with a great deal of variety as the quintet is comprise of one lefty, two righties, and two switch-hitters. Here are their platoon splits:

Mike Lowell (R) - vRHP: .294/.320/.450, vLHP: .315/.384/.584
Victor Martinez (S) - vRHP: .307/.373/.471, vLHP: .259/.363/.466
David Ortiz (L) - vRHP: .222/.320/.407, vLHP: .230/.294/.451
Jason Varitek (S) - vRHP: .223/.332/.406, vLHP: .250/.370/.539
Kevin Youkilis (L) - vRHP: .307/.408/.568, vLHP: .330/.464/.614

As you can see, only Varitek and Lowell show significant variations, and, as they are also the most senior citizens of Red Sox Nation, they will probably be getting the most days off. In truth, whether it happen now, in October, or at the beginning of next season, this trade probably means that, as John Kruk has suggested, Captain 'Tek is headed for a back-up role. Maybe he'll finally learn to catch Tim Wakefield. There are a few reasons for this. First, and foremost is, of course, that Victor Martinez is a legit middle-of-the-order hitter. Varitek wasn't V-Mart's offensive equal at any point in his career, but, while he's improved dramatically over his 2008 campaign, Varitek's current skill-set makes him undoubtedly the easiest out in the Red Sox lineup (bye-bye Julio Lugo and Nick Green), especially against right-handed pitching.

The faithful will say that 'Tek makes up for his offensive woes by being one of the game's greatest behind the plate. And this assertion, often followed by superlatives about "game-calling," is backed up of a 3.73 Catcher's ERA, best in the American League. His defense, however, does have one glaring flaw. While Varitek was never mistaken for a long-lost Molina brother, he threw out a respectable 24.7% of basestealers over his first eleven season. This year he's "gunned" down a mere 14%. This decline is contemporaneous with an much-noted increase in stolen base attempts around the league. As a result Varitek (and the Boston pitching staff, to be fair) is on pace to give up 120+ free bases in 2009. To put those numbers in perspective: Yadier Molina has a CS% of 41.0% and will fall victim to only around 30 successful attempts this season, despite playing in 15-25 more games.

It is no longer acceptable to ignore a catcher's throwing ability. It has been a growing trend since Mike Piazza tempted managers with the thought that they could get 30 HR and 100 RBI a season from their backstop. But Piazza never had to deal with those runnin' Rays. From 1993 to 2005, roughly the length of Piazza's catching career, only 27 players stole 50 or more bases and nobody stole more than 75. Moreover, only two teams, the '93 Expos and the '96 Rockies, stole more than 200 bases. The '96 Rockies were the only team to accomplish that feat from 1994 to 2006. Assuming the Rays maintain their current pace, both the '09 Rays and the '07 Mets will have joined the 200 SB club in the last three seasons. A dozen players have produced 50+ SB seasons in that time, assuming that the five new members from '09 maintain their current pace.

In the two game series between the Rays and Red Sox this week, the Rays nabbed six bases off Varitek in seven attempts. The only man he threw out was the not so fleet-footed Carlos Pena, which only further proves that Tampa Bay felt as though they could take extra bases with impunity.

Victor Martinez doesn't have the best arm in baseball, but in 2008 he threw out 37.1% and 32% in 2007. Though his legend may not be as thoroughly ingrained in the minds of the BoSox faithful, Martinez also has the reputation of a great "game-caller," and his career Catcher's ERA is 4.41 (Varitek's is 4.21), despite having managed some pretty poorly pitching staffs.

Martinez will be an improvement over Varitek both offensively and defensively, but Varitek will no doubt continue to catch two or three games a week (at which time V-Mart will often play first or DH) and this should help keep both of them fresher.

There is also one consideration which should not go unmentioned. Varitek has a player option for 2010. Considering the current market for veterans, it is unlikely he would find a job (or, at least, a million-dollar job) as a free agent with another team. That, and it seems unlikely he would want to leave Boston this late in his career. However, the Red Sox built his contract is such a way that if they were disappointed in his 2009 performance, his base salary would fall from $5 Million to $3 Million with bonuses based on games played ($400,000 for every ten starts past 80). It is very unlikely that the Red Sox will pay more than one of the bonuses in 2010. After all, Martinez has a club option for $7 Million, a steal for somebody of his talent.

We are nearing the end of a BoSox decade, and, fittingly, Varitek, Martinez, Ortiz, Lowell, and Josh Beckett all have contracts that expire at the end of 2010 (by which time J.D. Drew may become the longest tenured Red Sox). At that point, neither Varitek nor Martinez will probably be in Boston's plans, at least at catcher, especially if the trends toward speed and defense in the post-steroid era continue. And, on that note, you should check out the profile of Yadier Molina in this week's ESPN: The Magazine.

This season I've drafted no less than fifteen fantasy teams. Perhaps I will regret it, but my intention is to win every league, test the boundaries of my knowledge. I am playing in nearly every format: AL-only, NL-only, draft, auction, salary cap, H2H, 12-team, 16-team, roto, points, daily, weekly, yada-yada. As of this morning, my final draft has been completed. Here is a list of the players who appear on three or more of my rosters. These are obviously not exactly the players who I consider the finest at each position. I love Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera as much as the next guy, but they weren't always available when I wished them to be. More accurately, this list indicates which players I am ranking above the average fantasy player or analyst.

Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams

My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.

Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams

I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.

Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams

I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.

Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams

Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.

Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams

Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.

Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams

The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.

Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams

Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.

J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams

The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.

2009 Hi-Lo (Part One)

Having now completed 3 mock auctions, 4 actual auctions, and 3 drafts, I feel like I'm getting a sense of which players are being especially favored by owners this year and which are flying under the radar. Here are my overrated and underrated teams going into 2009.

Catcher:

+ Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez, Yadier Molina, Jeff Clement
- Matt Wieters, Geo Soto

It is safe to say the Russell Martin and Brian McCann should be the first backstops off the board and for the most part that seems to be happening. What's surprising is that V-Mart, once considered by far the best option at his position, has fallen considerably in many rankings, behind the likes of Martin, McCann, Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, and Ryan Doumit after an injury-plagued 2008 campaign. Martinez averaged 21 HR and 97 RBI in the four preceding season and I see no reason why he won't return to form, especially since he'll be seeing more time at 1B and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach. In September Martinez hit .288 with 14 RBI, even after a prolonged absence. Take him with confidence for $8-10 or in the middle rounds. Meanwhile, Geo Soto will cost as much as $15 or a pick in the first five rounds and is unlikely to perform any better than V-Mart. I like Soto, but following up on his Rookie of the Year campaign is going to be difficult. I wouldn't consider him an elite option until he proves he can do it two years in a row.

Matt Wieters is going to be a monster. Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer, but unless you're in a keeper league or you can get him for under $5 or in the late rounds, he's not worth the investment just yet. The Orioles will delay his arrival in order to keep him off the arbitration clock. Remember Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun, both of whom were held off until late May or early June for similar reasons, only got tickets to the show as early as they did because their clubs had made themselves contenders. Unless the Orioles are surprising everybody this spring (not likely), I don't see Wieters getting at-bats before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Jeff Clement will work his way into the lineup at C, 1B, or DH nearly everyday from the start of the year. He's just 25 and had a 1131 OPS at AAA in 2008.

Ramon Hernandez is a good power option (15 HR in '08) who's moving to the Great American Smallpark in Cincinnati. He's a solid late-round sleeper. Yadier Molina quietly hit above .300 last year. He's also just 25, but already has four seasons as a big-league regular. His offensive production has improved every year. These are the type of guys who come cheap and contribute at a couple of categories, which is much to be thankful for at a thin position.

First Base:

+ Justin Morneau
- Mark Texeira, Chris Davis

There aren't a lot of steals at this position. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are potentially to two most valuable players on the board and everybody knows it. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Lance Berkman aren't far behind. If any one of these fellows falls to the third round or goes for less than $25, you've gotten a heck of a deal. The same should be said of Justin Morneau, yet in two separate auctions I got him for $24. That seems strange for a guy who's a perennial MVP candidate. He's only 27 and he already has three years of at least 23 HR and 111 RBI. He may not have the upside of Howard or Fielder, but a season of .300 - 100 - 30 - 125 is a fairly safe bet.

Texeira is also a quality option, but I'm seeing him going early in the first-round and for upwards of $35 in the wake of his signing with New York. Maybe that will prove a reasonable estimation of his value, but you can have Pujols, Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, or Jose Reyes for around the same price. You be the judge.

Maybe I just arrived late on the Chris Davis bandwagon (unusual for me) and I understand that the 2008 numbers are pretty stratospheric (.305 -119-40-130-11 combined at AA/AAA/MLB), but I caution you to remember the likes of Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young. Chris Davis hasn't proven his pitch selection capability quite yet and until he does, I not willing to rank him ahead of Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, and James Loney (which is where Davis is getting drafted). Caution is warranted here.

Second Base:

+ Brandon Phillips, Orlando Hudson
- Mark DeRosa

I let others pay $30 for Dustin Pedroia (coming off career year), Chase Utley (coming off injury), and Ian Kinsler (coming off injury in a career year), I'll happily grab Brandon Phillips for around $20. He will put up quality stats in at least four categories and has the five-tool talent outperform the lot of him (see also, Alexei Ramirez, who has now moved to shortstop).

Based on my experience, Orlando Hudson is still going to be on the board in Round 25. You could do much worse with that pick, especially if you can slot him in as your third middle infielder. Between injuries the last two seasons Hudson has hit .300+ with an 800+ OPS, and that was on a team that expected him to bat in the three hole. Now he's likely to slot in between Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. As long as he's in the lineup he'll be a cheap producer in all five categories.

Mark DeRosa is coming off three consecutive seasons of improving production, capped off by a .285-103-21-87-6 year with the Cubs in '08 (kudos, Jim Hendry). Now he's 34 and heading back to the AL, to a team (Cleveland) which has a lot of young talent waiting in the wings. Don't be surprised if DeRosa loses his starting job and ends up as a veteran utility-man who only gets around 400 AB. We'll miss him in Chicago, but I'm quite skeptical.

Third Base:

+ Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman
- Evan Longoria

Maybe Longoria will equal or improve upon his rookie campaign, as Ryan Braun did last year, but I worry about the high ticket price. He's been going considerably ahead of guys like Aramis Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis, both of whom seem like safer options to me. His K/BB ratio (almost 3/1) worries me, especially since in was worst at the end of last year (20/3 in September, 20/5 in October). He still has to prove that he's capable of adjusting to the league and could be prone to some extended slumps which you are not likely to get from Ramirez or Youkilis.

Atkins is the prototype of the underrated player. He consistently lasts until the middle to late rounds, despite averaging .300-93-25-110 the last three seasons. He'll no longer benefit from the presence of Matt Holliday, but he still represents a top-quality choice at a surprisingly think position (especially now that A-Rod is questionable).

Nobody wants to touch Nationals hitters after they were among the worst in baseball last season, with no player exceeding 14 HR or 61 RBI. However, Zimmerman was limited to only 106 games in 2008 and stands to benefit the most from the addition of Adam Dunn, who will likely hit cleanup right behind him. Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Christian Guzman should be capable table-setters and, most importantly, Zimmerman will be only 24 in his fourth big-league season. He seems to be consistently available late in the draft or auction. Few players at that point have this much upside.

Shortstop:

+ Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitzki
- Derek Jeter

Remember, "intangibles" are not a fantasy category, so the fact the Jeter is going directly behind Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins is probably the most laughable aspect of this years draft. Jeter is still a solid middle-of-the-road shortstop, capable of providing you with .300-90-10-70-10, but similar guys are available late in the draft (i.e. Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta). If you're going to pay a premium price, take a gamble on Furcal, Tulowitzki, Alexei Ramirez, or Stephen Drew, all of whom could be competing with the trio of elite shortstops in years to come. Furcal will probably be the cheapest of the group (because he is the oldest and coming off an injury-plagued season). His combination of speed, plate discipline, and a threatening lineup behind him could allow him to challenge for a batting title and he has shown consistently improving power as his career has progressed. Two years of battling injuries may lead us to forget he is still in his prime.

My Stars

For the first time in recent memory, the fans may actually get it right. At least for the most part. There are a few races which are going down to the wire, but very few candidates who would be an absolute embarrassment if they took the field to begin the 2007 All-Star Game in San Francisco. No Boston 2B with a .738 OPS (a.k.a. Mark Loretta '06). No New York 1B batting .239 (a.k.a. Jason Giambi '04). No New York C with 3 HR (a.k.a. Paul Lo Duca '06). We can argue whether Prince Fielder deserves to beat out Prince Albert and Derrek Lee, but the fact is he leads the league in HR and is a completely valid choice, even if he doesn't yet scare you every AB the way those other two do. We can argue whether a place should've been found in the AL outfield for Gary Sheffield, or in the NL outfield for Matt Holliday. But for the most part, we'd be parsing hairs. All these players deserve notoriety, but there are only nine positions on each side, so not everybody gets to start. The good news is, Robinson Cano isn't going to start just because he plays for the Yankees, Jeff Kent isn't going to start just because he plays for the Dodgers, and Paul Lo Duca isn't going to start just because he plays for the Mets. Here though are a few hairs I'd like to parse, just for the fun of it.

First and foremost, this is the closest thing there is to a true slight this year, there is no way that Victor Martinez should be 5th in the voting for AL Catcher. Posada is having a renaissance of a season. I-Rod and Varitek are respected leaders on excellent teams. And Mauer is the reigning AL batting champ. But V-Mart should be at the top. He leads them all in HR (14), RBI (62), and Runs (40). He's behind only Posada in AVG (.313) and OPS (903). It looks like I-Rod is going to be the fan's choice, but hopefully V-Mart will join him and Jorge in San Francisco.

Now, here's a real hair-parser. It's hard to argue with David Wright. As of May 6 (30 G) he had a 691 OPS with 2 HR and 3 SB. In the 43 games since he has a 978 OPS with 10 HR and 13 SB, as well as 29 RBI and 25 R. However, as right as Wright is, there is clearly a better option. Miguel Cabrera hasn't stolen a base (perhaps because of his much-discussed "weight issues"), but he has accumulated a 998 OPS with 91 H, 17 HR, 46 R, and 54 RBI, easily best amongst NL Third Baseman. Get Miggy with it, NL voters!