Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux 2011 "Sleeper" Team

As you may have noticed, things have been a little busy in the land of Hippeaux.  I apologize for the fact that, at the time of year when many are itching for preseason predictions and analysis, I've been busy with my day job.  Over the weekend, I'll get out the "ouija board" and continue my series on Tout Wars.  I will obviously have an unfair advantage in my predictions, having already watched a game or two of Milwaukee v. Cincinnati.  In the meantime, here's a lineup of guys I'm "touting" for breakout campaigns in 2011.  I know it's belated, but there are still plenty of drafts on the horizon.

Russell Martin - C - New York Yankees

What's new, right?  Martin's always been among my favorites and it's going to pain me dearly to see him in pinstripes, but as a fantasy owner, this is a dream come true.  For one thing, Martin's popularity has absolutely tanked.  After his first three seasons, when Martin was averaging 14 HR and 16 SB a year, we probably got a little giddy, ranking him alongside the McCann's and V-Mart's of the world.  Now, coming off two seasons in which he was dogged by injuries, buried in a mediocre lineup, and discouraged by an unsupportive organization, he's been more or less forgotten (he's the 17th most popular catcher in ESPN standard leagues).  The argument for Martin goes like this:

1.) He's a high energy player and excellent defender who Joe Girardi is going to fall in love with.  So long as his hip is fully healthy, I think he's a synch to start 140 games.

2.) Even in his worst years, he's shown good plate discipline.  He's going to get on base.  Batting at the bottom of New York's lineup, that should mean solid runs and probably solid RBI as well (for his position).

3.) He's the only catcher in fantasy baseball who gives you any steals (double-digits in 4 out of 5 seasons and was on pace for that again last year before his injury).

4.) He's still just 28.

(P.S. In BLOGZKRIEG! I insured myself by adding Jesus Montero for a surprisingly cheap price.  I recommend this course of action in deep leagues.  If Martin goes down or fails to perform, you can bet Montero will be his replacement, either behind the plate or at DH, with Posada moving as well.)

Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansas City Royals

I've been promoting the Kila Monster for three seasons now, ever since he posted a 1085 OPS and a 104/67 BB/K ratio in the high minors in 2008.  The Royals, of course, would seem to have botched his development, flipping him back and forth between leagues and never giving him a prolonged look in the majors.  This year, he has until July (by which time Super Two eligibility will have expired and K.C. might be tempted to promote Eric Hosmer).  Ka'aihue showed how serious he was about taking advantage of his opportunity by hitting .397 with a 1307 OPS this spring.  Obviously, we can't read a ton into those numbers, but I think it suggests that he's chomping at the bit to show off his skills for teams who might free him from baseball purgatory.  Don't reach, but as a cheap corner infielder or utilityman, Kila has a lot of upside and not that much downside.

Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers

You're going to be reading quite a bit about the Brewers in these pages in the coming months, just as you did about the Rangers in 2010.  Hopefully, I can spur them to the same sort of luck.  Many will question Weeks ability to duplicate what he did last year (.269 AVG-112 R-29 HR-83 RBI-11 SB-830 OPS), but I think that's just the beginning.  It feels like Weeks has been around forever, but that's just because he was such a high profile prospect and got promoted at such a young age.  He's still just 28, with plenty of room for improvement, if he can just stay on the field.  Oh...you say...well, isn't that his problem?  Let me just name a few guys getting drafted ahead of him: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia.  You want a bastion of health at this thin position?  Get in line.

Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda's incredible offseason health regimen has turned him into a preseason favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.  In BBA BLOGZKRIEG! I had to go all the way to $19 to roster him, which I was more than willing to do.  Let's face it, you can't hit .330 with a 943 OPS over a full season at the age of 22 as a "fluke."  It just doesn't happen.  His belly has disappeared.  His skills haven't.

Mike Aviles - 2B, 3B, SS - Kansas City Royals

Aviles has a strong chance of being this season's Martin Prado.  Don't overestimate his value, but don't ignore the fact that he's hit .298 over three big-league seasons, despite hitting only .183 in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign.  Aviles is a legitimate .300+ hitter who throws in double-digit power and double-digit speed and, perhaps most importantly, will qualify at three shallow infield positions in most leagues.  Like Prado and Placido Polanco before him, he's great insurance against injury and batting average protection.  Buy with confidence.

Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers

There are different breeds of "sleepers."  Mike Aviles and Ryan Braun are definitely not of the same species.  That said, every year there is a premier player (or two) who consistently fall to far.  Last year's examples were Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton.  This year I think that distinction belongs to the two Brewers sluggers, Braun and Fielder.  A popular new crop of young, high-upside outfielders, led by Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, and Mike Stanton have seduced fantasy leaguers into believing there is a panoply of five-tool options in the outfield.  When you have to fill five slots, as is the case in most leagues, that's simply not the case.  If Braun is still around at the end of the first round or goes for less than $40 in a standard mixed league auction, you'll regret letting him go to somebody else.  This is a guys who's 162-game averages are .307 AVG-111 R-36 HR-118 RBI-18 SB-918 OPS.  Yes, please! Oh, and he just turned 27.

Delmon Young - LF - Minnesota Twins

For some reason, people hate Delmon Young.  I don't know exactly why it is.  Maybe it dates back to that minor-league fracas he got himself into.  Maybe it's because he often looks a little lackadaisical, even a little confused, in the spirit of J. D. Drew and B. J. Upton.  To me, he seems like a quiet unassuming kid.  I emphasize kid because last season, prior to which a whole lot of pundits were ready to declare the former #1 pick a bust, Delmon Young was 24-years-old.  Remember what you were doing when you were 24?  Who's the bigger "bust"?  Delmon proceeded to hit .298 and drive in 112 runs.  Now, I'm the first to admit, he got a lot of RBI chances.  I wouldn't expect him to match that total.  But I see no reason why he can't improve in every other category, as he continues to cut down on strikeouts and improve his power and discipline.  I'll guarantee you this, he's better than the 25th best outfielder in fantasy baseball.

Jay Bruce - RF - Cincinnati Reds

I know, I know: "BANDWAGON!!!"  Sometimes the conventional wisdom is simply wisdom.  Bruce has made strides in each of his first three seasons.  Everybody knows he's a industrial-strength toolbox.  Last year, he started to lay off pitches that even the catcher couldn't reach.  And, really, that's about all he can't hit.  Second half splits in 2010: .306 AVG-30 R-15 HR-34 RBI-0 SB-951 OPS.  Don't be the fool who takes him ahead of Ichiro or Shin-Soo Choo, but don't be the idiot who believes he'd be better off with Corey Hart.

The following pitchers I covered in the most recent edition of "21st Century Cys," so I won't belabor the point with more than a few additional words:

Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins

Say hello to the 2011 AL Cy Young.

Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Could be the Ubaldo of 2011, which doesn't mean he won't suffer from a second-half slide.

Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona D-Backs

Yankees fans will be cursing the trade that sent Kennedy to Arizona about every fifth day.

Here are the underrated veterans:

Carlos Zambrano - SP - Chicago Cubs

No more Lou Pinella.  No more Derrek Lee.  No more Carlos Silva.  No more Milton Bradley.  Perhaps Big Z will get pissed off be somebody else, but in the second half of 2010, he showed what he could do with a little anger management: 8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 K, 74 IP.  I'm obviously hoping for more of the same in 2011.  As an added bonus, Z's meltdown from a season ago has made him eligible as a relief pitcher in many leagues.  Depending upon your scoring system, that could dramatically increase his value.

Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians

In 2007, Carmona was the best pitcher on a staff that also featured C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee.  The following two seasons, things went terribly wrong.  Last year, Carmona recaptured some of that former glory and earned himself an All-Star bid (the truly pathetic quality of his teammates didn't hurt).  Carmona won't pile up strikeouts, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has the potential to pitch deep into games, giving you significant aid in ERA and even WHIP.  Victories may be few and far between in Cleveland, but even with some bad luck, he got 13 in 2010.  This is a very strong pitcher who is almost always available in the late stages of your auction or draft.

OOTP Predicts Ubaldo's No-Hitter

In the third part of my OOTP simulation series I'm looking at a lineup of players who piqued my curiousity going into the season.  My primary interest had to do with their fantasy profiles, so the stats I tracked were 5 X 5 roto categories.

The Costas Confessional & Other January Musings

• The most important quote to take from McGwire's much-publicized statement on Monday is this one: "I had good years when I didn't take any, and I had bad years when I didn't take any.  I had good years when I took steroids, and I had bad years when I took steroids."  Although it doesn't necessarily excuse his actions, it is important to recognize that steroids do not create the superhuman baseball players.  Perhaps they kept him on the field more often or prolonged his career, but I honestly believe that McGwire's power was, as he puts it, a "gift."  That doesn't mean that his massive homer totals weren't somewhat pharmaceutically-assisted.  Certainly, keeping a player of his caliber healthy makes a big difference (see Ken Griffey Jr., Milton Bradley, etc.).  However, let's also remind ourselves that hulking muscles are not the only, nor even the most critical ingredient for baseball power.  Alfonso Soriano hits more homers than Kevin Youkilis.  Rail-thin guys like Alexei Ramirez and Khalil Greene have awesome power strokes.  The stigma associated with steroids is a by-product of its illegality, which is mainly a by-product of the dangerous abuse of early versions of such drugs by weightlifters, swimmers, football players, etc. in the 1970s and 1980s.  It is not far-fetched to believe that within the next decade or so, athletes in many sports will use a new generation of "safe" pharmaceuticals for exactly the purposes McGwire describes...and nobody will care.  After all, it is in the best interest of the league and the fans to have healthy, productive stars.  At that point, the backwards geezers who currently dominate the BBWAA will be too senile or too dead to continue their crusade against "cheating," and all our favorite "juicers" will be rightfully enshrined.  We will also probably discover that the pharmaceuticals they used during the first decade of the 20th century were mostly "safe" as well.  I'm not claiming that "makes it alright," but those partisans who have been demanding confessions from McGwire, A-Rod, Bonds, and Clemens need to get on the honesty train as well and admit that the "Juiced Ball" era did not destroy the game, quite to the contrary, the game is healthier than ever, and, despite the crusade about steroid-related health risks, so are the "juicers."
• McGwire's confession dominated Monday's Hot Stove session, overshadowing
  the Giants signing of Aubrey Huff.  It strikes me as a somewhat odd signing in that San Francisco is already replete with players whose best positions are first and third (Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, Jesus Guzman, Matt Downs, etc.).  However, it is hard to find a bad one-year deal, especially for a player who certainly has the potential to be the much-needed middle-of-the-order presence that the Giants sorely need.  Huff is coming off the worst year of his career, but at 33, there is the strong possibility that was just a fluke.  Two years ago, in Baltimore, he was one of the AL's premier power-hitters, leading the league in extra-base hits (82) and finishing fifth in OPS (912), sixth in RBI (108), and eighth in homers (32).  If he can return to near that form, it could be enough to put the Giants over the top in the NL West.  After all, they managed 88 wins in 2009 with a truly paltry offense, and neither the Dodgers nor the Rockies have made any splashes over the offseason.  Huff and DeRosa (who will presumably play left field) should inspire at least a modest offensive improvement.  The key, of course, is for the San Francisco rotation to repeat it's dominating '09 performance and for Sandoval to prove that he is the kind of hitter you can build a lineup around (something which I firmly believe).
• I haven't yet posted my Offseason Prospectus for the Texas Rangers, who added Vladimir Guerrero over the weekend, but I will tell you that the Rangers are one of the franchises I'm most excited about heading into 2010.  I'm a big fan of Ron Washington and I was impressed by the Rangers performance in '09, especially considering they actually back-tracked offensively.  The health of Guerrero and Josh Hamilton will, of course, by crucial.  As will the development of young pitches like Neftali Feliz, Tommy Hunter, Matt Harrison, and Derek Holland.  With Millwood gone, the Rangers rotation is without a veteran presence (no, Rich Harden doesn't count), which could be ingenious or disastrous.  Either way, I'm looking forward to watching.  The Rangers are expecting a return to form from Vladdy, whose lifetime numbers at Arlington are pretty encouraging.  In fifty games in the Rangers home ballpark, Guerrero has 14 HR, 33 RBI, a .394 average, and 1175 OPS.  As far as the Rangers see it, even if Vlad is a disappointment, at least he won't be destroying them every time they play the rival Angels.  The only downside of the Guerrero signing is that it could impede the playing time of three breakout players from the 2009 squad.  In all likelihood, injuries will solve this problem, but there are currently two outfield spots available for Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, and Julio Borbon.  Cruz was one of the big stories of the first half, earning himself an All-Star selection, and finished with 33 HR, 20 SB, and an 856 OPS.  Murphy started slow, but from June on, he managed an 814 OPS with 15 HR.  The 23-year-old Borbon didn't join the team until August, but in the final two months he hit .316 with 29 runs scored, 19 stolen bases, and a 802 OPS.  I imagine Borbon will leadoff and play centerfield on Opening Day, with Hamilton and Cruz on either side and Guerrero at DH.  Murphy will spell Cruz against especially tough right-handers and bide his time waiting for one of the veterans to come up lame. 
  

Offseason Prospectus #7: The San Francisco Giants

The Giants had not achieved more than 75 wins since 2004, which was, coincidently, the last time Barry Bonds won the MVP. So, despite a third-place finish, notching 88 wins has to be considered a major step forward for the franchise, and, whether you like it or not, it probably means both Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy will be around at least until their contracts expire at the end of the 2011 season. I've voiced me skepticism about Sabean in the past (here and here, most notably) and there is no denying he handed out three of the worst contracts in the game (to Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and Edgar Renteria), but San Francisco's drafting and development have improved by leaps and bounds in the last couple seasons, so there is reason to be positive about his administration as well.

The question about the 2010 Giants is whether they can make the small step forward which would probably result in a playoff bid, or whether they will suffer the backslide which so often follows a surprising sixteen-win swing like this one (see '07 Tigers, '08 Rockies, '09 Rays, etc., etc.). Although it would undoubtedly stick in the craw of Giants fans to see their team stand pat again this offseason, when there offensive liabilities are so evident, I will argue that is exactly the right course of action for the long term viability of the franchise. They cannot afford to be saddled by another contractual albatross, and the impact free agents this offseason (Holliday, Bay, Lackey, etc.) have the potential to become exactly that. If Sabean and Peter Magowan are preparing to make another nine-figure investment, it would be better to wait until next winter and commit that money to Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, or Roy Halladay. Or, they could try to get Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Pablo Sandoval under contract for many years to come. Or, they might consider testing the availability of guys like Crawford, Halladay, Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder come June or July. The fact of the matter is, the Giants have several decisions to make before they can even accurately assess their most dire needs.

Free Agents:

Bobby Howry (36) RHRP

Randy Johnson (46) LHSP

Bengie Molina (35) C

Brad Penny (32) RHSP

Juan Uribe (30) IF

Randy Winn (36) OF

Arbitration Eligible:

Ryan Garko (29) 1B

Tim Lincecum (26) RHSP

Brandon Medders (30) RHRP

Jonathan Sanchez (27) LHSP

Brian Wilson (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Madison Bumgarner (20) LHSP

Matt Downs (26) 2B/3B/OF

Jesus Guzman (26) 1B/3B

Waldis Joaquin (23) RHRP

Brett Pill (25) 1B

Buster Posey (23) C

Kevin Pucetas (25) RHSP

Ryan Rohlinger (26) 3B

Dan Runzler (25) LHRP

Henry Sosa (24) RHSP

Obviously, the Giants will again lean heavily on their pitching staff, led by Lincecum and Cain. Atlanta and St. Louis also had excellent rotations in 2009, but San Francisco led the NL in strikeouts, WHIP, complete games, opponent's average and OPS. There is no reason to believe the Giants will be any worse in 2010. Barry Zito (32) is the only member of the rotation older than 27 and Jeremy Affeldt (31) is the only pitcher in bullpen over thirty. Moreover, and this is where Sabean deserves a great deal of commendation, there is more homegrown talent on the way. Madison Bumgarner, though only twenty, will almost certainly join the rotation this spring. He has very little to prove in the minors after his most recent campaign:

Bumgarner (A/AA) 12-2, 1.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 92/34 K/BB, 131 IP

Kevin Pucetas took a step backward at AAA in '09, but he and Henry Sosa are also top prospects who could join the rotation later this season, if necessary. Their presence make Randy Johnson and Brad Penny expendable, although Sabean may disagree. Similarly, the Giants should be able to quickly compensate for the loss of Bobby Howry by promoting Waldis Joaquin and Dan Runzler, and giving more innings to Sergio Romo and Joe Martinez. Both in the rotation and the bullpen, the Giants staff is not only dominant, but deep as well.

Unfortunately, quite the opposite is true of the everyday lineup. If we took San Francisco's current starting eight down Highway 1 and gave them to Joe Torre and the Dodgers, Pablo Sandoval and Freddy Sanchez would be the only guys with starting positions. And, again, unlike the pitching staff, there aren't many reinforcements on the way. The Giants best positions prospects, guys like Angel Villalona, Conor Gillaspie, and Darren Ford, won't be ready for the big leagues until 2012 at the earliest. What they have an abundance of in the high minors are players who look destined for AAAA or limited major-league roles; outfielders like Nate Schierholtz, John Bowker, Joe Borchard, Andres Torres, and Fred Lewis; and infielders like Emmanuel Burriss, Kevin Frandsen, Ryan Garko, and Travis Ishikawa.

The same may also be true of Brett Pill, Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, and Jesus Guzman, rookies who will all fight for at-bats at third, first, and probably in the outfield as well, during Spring Training and the early months of 2010. This is one of the reasons I urge the Giants to be cautious on the free agent market this offseason. While none of these players appear to possess the talent to provide serious protection for Sandoval, a couple of them (the best bets are probably Guzman, Downs, and Eugenio Velez) could develop into legitimate starters. Bochy is going to have a major challenge finding enough opportunities for all his youngsters to show what they are capable of, but until he does so, it will be difficult for the Giants front office to identify their most pressing need. Certainly, they need a power-hitter to plug in behind Sandoval in the middle of lineup, but whether it would be better for that slugger to play first base, third base, or outfield, remains to be seen.

To that effect, San Francisco needs to decide relatively soon whether they are going to continue to use Kung Fu Panda at the hot corner, or give in to the fact that his weight makes him more logically suited for first base. I can understand their reluctance. Sandoval has been passable on defense thusfar (-2.3 UZR) and it is easier to find a free agent slugger at first than at third, but in '09 he hit .320 with a 921 OPS when playing third and .385 with a 1071 OPS in his more limited appearances at first, suggesting that the Panda's production might benefit slightly from an alleviation of defensive anxiety. Clearly, fans pay to see Sandoval hit, so maybe it's best to let him concentrate on that. I expect he will continue to bounce back and forth in '10 as Bochy finds at-bats opposite him for Guzman, Downs, Ishikawa, Frandsen, Garko, etc., but by '11 he should be settled at a permanent position, to which he can give his full attention (as an analogy, Albert Pujols benefitted both offensively and defensively when the Cardinals finally settled him at first base after several seasons of bouncing between first, third, and left field).

Sabean faces another difficult decision this offseason with his backstops. Bengie Molina became one of the most popular players in San Francisco during the last three seasons, and one can argue that he has been a significant part of the pitching staff's success. However, he has also become a serious offensive liability, netting an atrocious .285 OBP (!) in '09. One could argue that he might improve if he were able to hit lower in the order, in less pressure situations, but regardless of batting position, he doesn't have nearly the upside of Buster Posey, the 2008 first-rounder who pounded his way through the minor leagues in just over a year. So, there are, in fact, two catching questions:

1.) Can a 23-year-old, regardless of his reported maturity, handle catching the nastiest pitching staff in the game on a nightly basis?

2.) Can Bengie Molina handle a backup role, or even a 50/50 timeshare, after three seasons of starting 120+ games?

If the Giants decide the answer to the first question is yes, but the answer to the second question is no (and those, I believe, are the right answers), than they will be in the market for a veteran backstop who had adjusted to limited playing time, but who has wisdom to impart to the rookie. Jose Molina would be the obvious choice, but he will likely return to the Bronx and may be reluctant to follow in his brother's footsteps. Other decent options could be Jason Kendall, Miguel Olivo, Gregg Zaun, Brad Ausmus, or Ivan Rodriguez.

Finally, the Giants need to decide what they expect out of Aaron Rowand. He got off to a solid start last season, but faded fast, from July 5th forward he managed only a 594 OPS. The Giants again bounced him around the order, even experimenting, relatively successfully, with using him as a leadoff hitter. Rowand's offensive woes aren't the only problem. His range in center appears to be declining as well. For a team which depends heavily on its outfield defense in the spacious confines of AT&T Park, it may be wise to consider moving Rowand to right field, although as a corner outfielder, his poor hitting becomes even more auspicious.

The Giants should again exhibit many reasons for optimism in 2010, but San Francisco may need to be patient for yet another year before they can anticipate a serious contender.

Here is my projected 2010 Opening Day Roster (Revised 1/1):

CF Aaron Rowand (R)

2B Freddy Sanchez (R)

1B Pablo Sandoval (S)

3B Mark DeRosa (R)

LF Eugenio Velez (S)

C Buster Posey (R)

RF Andres Torres (S)

SS Edgar Renteria (R)

P Tim Lincecum (R)

SP Matt Cain (R)

SP Barry Zito (L)

SP Jonathan Sanchez (L)

SP Madison Bumgarner (L)

CL Brian Wilson (R)

SU Brandon Medders (R)

SU Jeremy Affeldt (L)

MI Sergio Romo (R)

MI Waldis Joaquin (R)

MI Dan Runzler (L)

MU Joe Martinez (R)

C Miguel Olivo (R) FA

IF Matt Downs (R)

IF Juan Uribe (R)

IF Kevin Frandsen (R)

OF Fred Lewis (L)

BBA Awards Ballot: MVP (NL)

There have been some nice moments in the BBA Awards so far. Voters have shown a strong inclination to look past the standings. Of the four player awards thusfar, none has gone to a player on a playoff team. Most recently, Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke grabbed the highest honor for pitchers, despite the fact that neither won more than sixteen games.

The MVP, however, is the one award I believe should take into account team success, as well as individual numbers. This isn't to say that Ryan Braun and Adam Lind aren't legitimate candidates just because they played on losing teams, merely that when they are compared to men with similar statistics on winning teams, they fall slightly behind.

I also believe that the MVP award should go to a position player. Not that Greinke and Lincecum aren't extraordinarily "valuable," but pitcher's have their own award and there needs to be some credit given to those guys that grind it out every day, both at the plate and in the field. As such, defense is also a major factor when it comes to my MVP voting, which is why I favor stats like WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which account for fielding as well as hitting.

Unfortunately, the MVP races aren't very close this year. Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer are, deservedly, runaway favorites. I believe that, were anybody else to win, it would be a bit of a travesty, so the main question for me was how to fill out the rest of my ballot and which league provided the most interesting group of second and third tier candidates to discuss. There were some very interesting arguments to be made on both sides, but my discussion of the AL is just going to have to wait until November. Here is my NL ballot:

10. Adrian Gonzalez - 1B - San Diego Padres
.277/.407/.551, 90 R, 40 HR, 99 RBI, 1 SB, 4.3 UZR, 6.4 WAR
9. Derrek Lee - 1B - Chicago Cubs
.306/.393/.579, 91 R, 35 HR, 111 RBI, 1 SB, 3.4 UZR, 5.3 WAR
8. Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals
.292/.364/.525, 110 R, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 2 SB, 17.9 UZR, 7.1 WAR

The bottom third of my ballot was reserved for players whose teams were bad, but whose seasons weren't. The Padres, Cubs, and Nats would've been much worse off without the efforts of these gentlemen. Z-pack and D-Lee both bounced back to prove they were still superstar-caliber players after mediocre, injury-plagued seasons in '08. Zimmerman deserves Gold Glove consideration for his efforts at the hot corner. Gonzo improved his power numbers for the fourth consecutive season, despite playing in spacious Petco Park (28 of his dingers came on the road). He's still just 27. The Padres have him signed through 2011 for an amazingly affordable rate ($11.25 Million total for the next two seasons). He will likely be the cream of the 2012 free agent class.

7. Matt Kemp - CF - Los Angeles Dodgers
.297/.352/.490, 97 R, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 34 SB, 3.2 UZR, 5.1 WAR
6. Troy Tulowitzki - SS - Colorado Rockies
.297/.377/.552, 101 R, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 20 SB, -0.6 UZR, 5.5 WAR
5. Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants
.330/.387/.556, 79 R, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 5 SB, -4.6 UZR, 5.1 WAR

Three superb youngsters hold down the middle third of my ballot. Tulowitzki and Kemp are just 25, while Kung Fu Panda is merely 23. All three elevated their already impressive games in '09. Andre Ethier had slightly better power number and some memorable walk-off hits for the Dodgers, but Kemp was really what made their offense tick. He's probably a lock for 30/30 for the next several years and he has become one of the league's finest centerfielders. Tulowitzki defensive wizardry wasn't quite up to the standard he set in 2007, but he still made just nine errors, trailing only Jimmy Rollins. He took a major step forward on offense, however, becoming the Rockies top hitter. He joins three Rs - Rollins, Ramirez, and Reyes - among premier shortstops going into 2010. The depth of the Giants offensive problems are probably best demonstrated by the fact that Pablo Sandoval batted third in the order, got over 600 plate appearances, racked up an OPS of 943 (7th best in the NL), and still scored only 79 runs. New San Francisco mantra: "Strand-a Pand-a."

4. Hanley Ramirez - SS - Florida Marlins
.342/.410/.543, 101 R, 24 HR, 106 RBI, 27 SB, 0.3 UZR, 7.3 WAR
3. Chase Utley - 2B - Philadelphia Phillies
.282/.397/.508, 112 R, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 23 SB, 12.0 UZR, 7.7 WAR
2. Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers
.299/.412/.602, 103 R, 46 HR, 141 RBI, 2 SB, 0.2 UZR, 6.7 WAR

These guys have all been in this position before and, probably, will be again, looking up at King Albert.

Ryan Howard got a lot of press this year for slimming down and playing better defense, but Prince Fielder did the exact same thing, bringing his UZR up to average from -8.5 in 2008 (which was the best of his career until this season). Howard and Fielder appear, superficially, to be very similar players, but Fielder walks more and strikes out less, perhaps contributing to his much higher averages, and he doesn't suffer the annual month-long growing pains in April. Fielder is still just 25 and is consistently underrated. In my mind, he is already a superior player to Howard, Texeira, Gonzalez, and Morneau.

1. Albert Pujols - 1B - St. Louis Cardinals
.327/.443/.658, 124 R, 47 HR, 135 RBI, 16 SB, 1.2 UZR, 8.4 WAR

What more needs be said? He's the best player in baseball, has been for about five seasons now and it doesn't look like he's becoming the least bit complacent.

Honorable Mention: Ryan Braun LF (MIL), Ryan Howard 1B (PHI), Andre Ethier LF (LAD), Jayson Werth RF (PHI), Justin Upton RF (ARZ)

AL MVP Ballot (had I swung that way): 10. Franklin Gutierrez CF (SEA), 9. Derek Jeter SS (NYY), 8. Mark Texeira 1B (NYY), 7. Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B (BOS), 6. Victor Martinez C/1B (BOS), 5. Chone Figgins 3B (LAA), 4. Ben Zobrist 2B/SS/RF (TAM), 3. Evan Longoria 3B (TAM), 2. Miguel Cabrera 1B (DET), 1. Joe Mauer C (MIN)

Vote For Kung Fu Panda

As I mentioned when I wrote up my preview last week, I don't envy Joe Maddon and Charlie Manuel. There are far more deserving candidates this season than there are roster spots for the All-Star game, even when you include the expanded pitching staff and the vote-in guys. The job is made even more difficult by the fact that the fans voted in Dustin Pedroia (whose 761 OPS ranks him as 8th out of the eleven AL second-basemen with 225 or more plate appearances) and Josh Hamilton (who has spent almost the entire first half on the D.L. and didn't play particularly well when he wasn't there).  And the players added a few likable veterans who are having decent seasons, but probably aren't the best choices.  I'm thinking of Michael Young, Orlando Hudson, and Ryan Zimmerman.  

One bit of good news. Charlie Manuel will essentially get two more chances to do right, since Carlos Beltran and Raul Ibanez, both deserving candidates, are unlikely to be healthy enough to participate.

Top 5 Snubs:

1.) Pablo Sandoval - 3B/1B/C - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda isn't just blossoming into a fan-favorite in the bay area, he is undeniably one of the ten or twelve best hitters in the N.L. this season.  He is fourth in the league in batting average (.332) and ninth in OPS (958).  And, among N.L. third-basemen (his primary position this season), he is the cream of the crop.  Here are his stats compared to David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman:

Sandoval - .332/.386/.564, 37 R, 12 HR, 44 RBI, 59.3 RC

Wright - .326/.414/.470, 51 R, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 59.7 RC

Zimmerman - .293/.361/.479, 55 R, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 53.1 RC

There are two things, however, which make Sandoval a more deserving candidate, beyond his impressive statistics.  First of all, he's been asked to play three different positions (and he hits regardless of where he plays).  Wouldn't that versatility (and that catcher eligibility) be valuable on a roster than is currently carrying four first-baseman and only two catchers?  And, most importantly in my mind, while Zimmerman's surge may have much to do with the addition of Adam Dunn (more on that later) and Wright has, despite the Mets rash of injuries, been surrounded by guys like Carlos Beltran, Gary Sheffield, and Jose Reyes for most of the year, Sandoval really is an island.  The Giants team OPS is 704, 15th in the N.L., compared to 740 for the Mets (6th) and 743 for the Nationals (5th).  Sandoval leads his team in AVG., OPS,  
OBP., SLG., H, 2B, HR, TB, RBI, and BB.  His lineup protection is Bengie Molina (706 OPS) and a carousel of guys like Travis Ishikawa, Andres Torres, and Nate Schierholtz.  The Giants, even with their spectacular pitching, simply would not be contenders if it wasn't for his monster season thusfar.  To me, that screams All-Star.

2.) Jered Weaver - SP - Los Angeles Angels

I'm as happy as anybody to see Tim Wakefield making his first All-Star appearance, but, really, it comes at Weaver's expense. He is by far the best pitcher left off the AL roster. The numbers are good (9-3, 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 95 K, 114 IP), but the other part of the story, as with Sandoval, is that the Angels would be nowhere near first place without him. When the Angels rotation (and roster, generally) was decimated by injuries early in the season, Weaver rose to the occasion and demonstrated the maturity of an Ace, something that many of us have been expected from him for the last couple years. He consistently went deep into games and ended losing streaks.  In seventeen starts Weaver has failed to go six inning only four times (never less than five) and has gone seven or more inning ten times, including three complete games (which ties him for 2nd most in MLB).  He deserves this accolade more than several of the pitchers who were chosen.

3.) Yovani Gallardo & Trevor Hoffman - SP & RP - Milwaukee Brewers

Yes, the Brewers are already represented by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but the fact is, nobody thought the Brewers would be anywhere near contenders this season, not because they didn't believe Prince and the Hebrew Hammer would be doing exactly what they're doing, but because they lost their three most valuable pitchers from last year's Wild Card winner: C. C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and Salomon Torres.  Gallardo (8-5, 2.75 ERA, 114 K, 1.15 WHIP) and Hoffman (18/19 SV, 1.93 ERA) have at least slightly ameliorated the sting of those losses and the Brew Crew is currently one game out of first place.  I know the math wouldn't allow for both of them to make the team.  But, I'll put it this way: Fuck Jason Marquis.

4.) Adam Dunn - OF - Washington Nationals

The Nats are the worst team in baseball, so, there wasn't much chance of them getting two representatives.  So, when Zimmerman was voted in by the players, Dunn was plum out of luck.  Although, somehow, Charlie Manuel decided that Christian Guzman deserved a place on the Final Vote ballot more than Dunn.  Dunn is very quietly having a career year, making many franchises who passed on him over the winter look a little silly.  He's currently on pace for 44 HR and 119 RBI, right in line with his usual totals, but he's also hitting 20 points above his career average.  Zimmerman has already nearly equaled his total output from 2008 and much of his production has to do with the fact that Dunn is hitting behind him.  

5.) Ian Kinsler - 2B - Texas Rangers

Kinsler just missed being elected by the fans, as a Boston bias prompted him to get passed in the final week, and he still has a chance to get in on the Final Vote. And, I would agree that if Maddon could only afford one more second-baseman (besides Pedroia), Aaron Hill was the right choice (Hill was added to the roster by his fellow players). Nonetheless, Kinsler is quite worthy among AL 2B, with 19 HR (2nd), 59 R (2nd), and 51 RBI (2nd) in the first half, as well as 16 SB (2nd) and an 825 OPS (2nd). Adding to his well-known offensive attributes is that fact that he's made significant strides on defense, leading the AL in Range Factor and second to Placido Polanco in Ultimate Zone Rating.

Honorable Mentions: Jermaine Dye - RF - Chicago White Sox, Scott Rolen - 3B - Toronto Blue Jays, Adam Lind - DH - Toronto Blue Jays, Zack Duke - SP - Pittsburgh Pirates, Mark Reynolds - 3B - Arizona Diamondbacks

Top 5 Duds:

1.) Jason Marquis & Tim Wakefield - SP - Colorado Rockies & Boston Red Sox

I pair these two, not because they are anything alike as players or individuals (i.e. I like Wakefield), but because both were added based largely on gaudy win totals which were accumulated due to a significant amount of good fortune.  Both have been solid pitchers, but not All-Star caliber.  Wakefield's 4.30 ERA is good for only 27th in the A.L. (among starting pitchers) and Marquis' 3.61 is 21st in the N.L.  Add to that their abyssmal K/BB rates and their outstanding run support (8.85 R/9 for Wakefield [1st among pitchers in the A.L. with 100 IP], 6.67 R/9 for Marquis [6th in N.L.]) and we get a much more accurate sense of their seasons.   

2.) Hunter Pence - RF - Houston Astros

I don't know what to make of the fact that he was selected by his fellow players.  It is possible that they have seen something that I haven't.  Here's a point of contention:

A .302/.370/.492 - 44 R, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 8 SB

B .295/.344/.464 - 34 R, 12 HR, 47 RBI, 2 SB

C .270/.402/.526 - 43 R, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB

Player A is Hunter Pence.  Player B is Carlos Lee.  And Player C is Lance Berkman.  All three are having very similar seasons, but Lee and Berkman have much more star power and much longer track records of success.  What makes Pence a better choice to represent the Astros? Here's another comparison:

A .302/.370/.492 - 44 R, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 8 SB

B .266/.425/.546 - 38 R, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 0 SB

C .305/.369/.474 - 43 R, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 19 SB

D .263/.364/.491 - 56 R, 17 HR, 50 RBI, 11 SB

Again, A is Pence.  B is Dunn, C is Matt Kemp, and D is Jayson Werth.  It would appear to me that B, C, and D are all at least equal to A, probably superior, especially when you factor in that Kemp and Werth are better defenders.  Dunn is definitely the biggest star in the group, while Werth and Kemp both play for more successful franchises.  I just can't figure out what Pence is doing which commands so much support from his peers.  Perhaps his awkwardness just makes him more memorable.

3.) Michael Young - 3B - Texas Rangers

To begin with, one could argue that there are three guys on his own team - Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Kevin Millwood - who are more deserving. Mort importantly, there are at least two guys at his position who are obviously better choices. It isn't that Young is having a bad year, offensively, it's just that Brandon Inge and Scott Rolen are have demonstrably better seasons both at the plate and in the field, where Young has been especially putrid (-11.3 UZR, last in MLB).

4.) Brian Fuentes - RP - Los Angeles Angels

Maybe it says somewhere in a little black book that the manager's receive that the league leader in saves must be selected. Because, with the exception of that tidbit, which is largely due to the propensity of chances in Anaheim (remember that record-breaking performance by K-Rod last season), Fuentes hasn't been all that great.  He's pitched the fewest inning of any closer who was selected and his ERA (3.38) is more than half-a-run higher than the next All-Star closer (Broxton, 2.72). Certainly not as good as guys like David Aardsma (17/18, 1.41), George Sherrill (18/21, 2.43), and Joakim Soria (13/15, 1.66). And that's just to name some relievers. One might also argue that Fuentes' spot could've been more appropriately used on, say, his teammate, Jered Weaver, who has a significantly better ERA, despite pitching quadruple the innings.

5.) Freddy Sanchez - 2B - Pittsburgh Pirates

Part of his selection was All-Star math.  The Pirates needed to be represented.  But, in my opinion, Zack Duke is having a hell of a season (8-7, 3.28), certainly better than Jason Marquis, probably better than Francisco Cordero as well.  Could've bumped one of them and made room for Mark Reynolds, Pablo Sandoval, or Brandon Phillips.  Again, it isn't that Sanchez has been bad, it is just that he offers very little besides a high average (.316).  He doesn't hit for power or drive in runs, he doesn't steal bases, and he doesn't play particularly strong defense (which is the one quality that Orlando Hudson has over him).  

Dishonorable Mentions: Josh Hamilton - CF - Texas Rangers, Dustin Pedroia - 2B - Boston Red Sox, Ryan Zimmerman - 3B - Washington Nationals