Gold Gloves Meaningless, Laughable...As Usual

For those of you acquainted with the sabermetric argument for defensive statistics, there won't be much news here, but I want to make my annual rant about the Gold Glove voting, which serious students of the game stopped taking seriously a long time ago, but which is still used to incentivize contracts, on Hall of Fame plaques, and by a hoard of ignorant pundits annually.  Here's the basics.

Obviously, we all prefer the aspects of the game which can be measured with our own eyes.  Unfortunately, defense is something that can only effectively evaluated over the long term (even one season is kind of a small sample size).  Every athlete in the league is capable of the occasional web gem.  We can't allow ourselves to be conned into hyperbolic attestations based on a single play or short series of plays spanning a few games.  As a result, nobody can hope to see enough baseball each season to be capable of making reasoned judgements without consulting some form of statistic.  If you watch your team everyday, you probably know pretty confidently which of your defenders are good, great, fine, weak, and ugly, and you could probably get confirmation of those observations using statistics.  But you can't make a reasoned, objective judgment about how your shortstop or left-fielder stacks up against the rest of the league, because you watch the 29 other teams but rarely.  To make the Gold Glove a meaningful award, the voters have to rely of some conglomeration of statistics.  Otherwise they are, as I've stated ad nauseum, meaningless and laugable.  

I openly admit that no defensive metric is perfect.  Every position demands a variety of skills and every player brings a different tools to the table.  Vlad Guerrero still has an exceptional throwing arm, but as he showed during Game One of the World Series, he's no longer very flexible or fleet of foot.  Juan Pierre has exceptional speed, but has a noodle arm and the tendency to take meandering routes to balls in the gap.  Any defensive assessment is, at last, imperfect, regardless of how much observational and statistical data we bring to the table.  We should, however, recognize that the advanced metrics (UZR is the most readily available) are based upon the charting of every play that every player is involved in.  As such, they do a lot of work that our eyes cannot.  There are flaws in the charting systems, certainly, but they get better with every passing year.  And, if you are really geeked on defense, you can look at something like John Dewan's Fielding Bible, which will breakdown not only "overall" defensive performance, but analyze how players approach specific types of plays (coming in v. going out, up-the-middle v. in-the-hole, around the bag v. off the line, etc.).

Since no one stat tells the whole story (although UZR comes pretty close), certain comparisons are too close to call.  Rob Neyer might suggest that Brett Gardner was marginally better than Carl Crawford this year, but both were extremely good.  And Neyer would happily admit that the small difference between them could be related to their ballparks, pitching staffs, and the simple fact that they didn't get exactly the same set of potential chances.  As such, I don't think it's all that unreasonable to give Crawford the hardware.  He's been an elite defensive outfielder for far longer than Gardner, so we know there's nothing the least bit flukey about his 2010 numbers.  The same can honestly be said about the choice of Evan Longoria over Adrian Beltre and Kevin Kouzmanoff, the choice of Troy Tulowitzki over Brendan Ryan, the choice of Albert Pujols over Ike Davis, etc.

All told, I'd say 13 of the 18 Gold Glove recipients were at least modestly deserving this season, which is actually pretty good, so I'm going to reserve my comments for the ones who clearly weren't:

AL SS (9 Q):	UZR	RF	FPCT	ZR	OOZ	RngR	ErrR	INN	Errors
Derek Jeter	-4.7 (#7)	3.78 (#8)	.989 (#1)	6.63 (#2)	38 (#9)	-11.8 (#9)	6.5 (#1)	1303 (#4)	6 (#1)
Elvis Andrus	0.1 (#4)	4.48 (#4)	.976 (#4)	5.61 (#6)	46 (#6)	1.3 (#4)	-2.6 (#8)	1291 (#5)	16 (#4)
Cliff Pennington	9.9 (#2)	4.93 (#1)	.966 (#7)	5.01 (#9)	53 (#4)	9.4 (#1)	0.6 (#5)	1304 (#3)	25 (#9)
Alexei Ramirez	10.8 (#1)	4.89 (#2)	.974 (#6)	5.09 (#8)	67 (#1)	8.4 (#2)	1.0 (#4)	1376 (#1)	20 (#7)

Let's get this out of the way.  Derek Jeter won his fifth Gold Glove for his performance in 2010.  Jeter has become the posterchild for all that is wrong with the voting process.  There's no doubt, in fact, that the exposes which originated out of Baseball Prospectus a few years back actually spurred Jeter to rededicate himself to defense and in '08 and '09 he was better than he'd ever been (though still not nearly the best).  At this point, however, his age has merely caught up to him, and even stalwart Yankee fans will admit he's mediocre...at best.  He has hardly any mobility on either side and has one of the weakest arms at his position.

What he is, however, is very sure-handed on balls hit directly at him, which explains his league-leading fielding percentage.  It also explains why Alexei Ramirez created nearly twice as many outs outside the average shortstop zone and was involved in nearly 100 more plays.  According to FanGraphs, all that range (not to mention his incredible throwing arm) helped Ramirez to save his team approximately fifteen more runs than Captain Intangible over the course of the 2010 season.

Jeter's isn't the only Gold Glove causing accusations of Yankee bias...

Irrational Derek Jeter Love/Hate vs. Scott Rolen

The Yankee Captain's underwhelming 2010 season has made the controversy surrounding his impending free agency all the more stressful for Yankee fans...and entertaining for the rest of us.

Already the negotiations have begun in the media, with the House of Steinbrenner vowing not to pay for milestones and sentimentality, and Jeter's agent, Casey Close, reminding them that the Captain's "impact cannot be overstated."  In my view, the more rounds of shenanigans the better.  But there's really only one possible outcome, right?  Who else could be interested in a 37-year-old, defensively-challenged shortstop coming off the worst season of his career and demanding at least an eight-figure salary?  Not my team (I hope).

I am, of course, an avowed Jeter-hater.  My spite correlates more or less exactly in its excess to the hyperbolic man-love that originates from the Bronx and is spews almost daily from the mouths of self-righteous Jeter-ites like Joe Morgan and Joe Buck.  If there weren't such a willful ignorance on the part of the pro-Jeter camp, denying even his most glaring flaws and suggesting he ranks not only among the elite of his era, but is somehow among the best ever, I wouldn't feel obligated to write snarling anti-Jeter rants each and every year.

Can't we be reasonable?  I, at least, am willing to try.  What I want to know is, personal preferences aside, what is Derek Jeter's actual value on the open market?  In order to establish that, we'll need to start by looking at some similar players who've tested the free agent market in the decade since Jeter signed his last contract.

For starters, there's Miguel Tejada.  He's almost exactly the same age as Jeter.  He's been reluctant to accept the fact he's no longer a "Gold Glove" shortstop.  As recently as 2009 he had a year in which he was among the league leaders in hitting (.313) as well as several other categories.  But, in 2010, his production dropped off the table, as he posted a 692 OPS, the worst since his rookie season.  Sounds familiar, right?  Like Jeter, Tejada is a free agent and you can bet, whatever suitors he has (if any), they aren't going to be discussing anything bigger than the $6 Million, one-year deal he had in 2010.

Even I will grant, however, that Derek Jeter is worth more than Miguel Tejada, and not just because of his "intangibles."  Like Tejada, Jeter possesses great bat control, the ability to hit to all fields, sporadic power, and a great knack for situational hitting.  Unlike Tejada, he also has decent speed and a more selective approach, which will help him continue to be an acceptable top-of-the-order hitter, even as some other aspect of his game deteriorate.  Also, although the difference is probably minimal, and not supported by the limited sample size from this season, Jeter is still a noticeably better shortstop than Tejada, at least a more sure-handed one.  And Jeter's athletic skills, especially his speed and his instinct for tracking flyballs, suggest that when he's ready to accept a change of position, the Yankees will have options and Jeter have a better chance of adapting.  While I don't think the comparison is as unfair as Yankee fans would like to believe, Jeter has an apparent edge over Miggy on both sides of the ball.

With few other players playing shortstop at such a late stage in their career, it is necessary to look at other positions for comparable players.  It is at this point when we come to Scott Rolen.  I have to admit, this caught me completely off guard.  On the surface, it's kind of strange comparison.  The natural assumption is that these guys are opposites.  Jeter hits for average, Rolen for power.  Jeter steals bases, Rolen drives in runs.  Jeter is an ironman, Rolen is brittle.  Jeter is gregarious, Rolen is shy.  Jeter plays a mediocre shortstop (if we're being kind), Rolen plays an exceptional third base.  Jeter is a lifelong Yankee, Rolen's already got four franchises on his resume.  

However, when you look closer, you see they've been running more or less parallel as players for nearly two decades.  Jeter is nine months older than Rolen.  Both broke in at age 21, and both won the Rookie of the Year award (Jeter in the AL in '96.  Rolen in the NL in '97.).  They've both been frequent All-Stars (Jeter 11, Rolen 6).  They've both won Gold Gloves (Jeter 4, Rolen 7).  They've both come close to the MVP, but never won it.  They both played their prime seasons with the powerhouse franchise in their league.  And, although you may not have realized it, they are both amongst the premier players of their generation.

From '97 (Rolen's rookie season, Jeter's sophomore season) to the recently completed campaign, they rank #5 and #6 in Wins Above Replacement.  Those in front of them are of impressive ilk:

1. Alex Rodriguez 93.2 (6.7 per season)

2. Barry Bonds 86.5 (7.9)

3. Albert Pujols 83.8 (8.4)

4. Chipper Jones 71.5 (5.1)

5. Derek Jeter 67.9 (4.9)

6. Scott Rolen 66.6 (4.8)

Here's how the pair stack up in some other popular metrics:

                      AVG  OPS  OPS+ WPA

Derek Jeter    .314    837    119    31.6

Scott Rolen    .284    867    124    31.1

That's a pretty remarkable similarity.  And, it should also be noted, it's a pretty remarkable accomplishment to be rated in this class.  Some of the guys who fall just behind them are notable: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guererro, Jim Thome, etc.  You may not have realized that Rolen belonged in such company.  (And I was reluctant to admit that Jeter did.)  One might be tempted to suggest that Rolen has been more valuable than Jeter over the course of his career because he's gotten to nearly the same WAR, but with less playing time (mainly due to injuries).  Jeter's WAR per 162 game is 5.18, Rolen's is 5.85.  That's a specious argument, of course, considering Rolen's shortened seasons (particularly '05 and '07) came at a severe cost to the Cardinals.

But Rolen's fragility has been somewhat exaggerated.  He's only had one season with fewer than 100 games started and he's averaged over 550 plate appearances per season during his 14-year career.  Whatever lingering damage there is to his shoulder and back, it has only cost him a few weeks over the last two seasons and certainly hasn't kept him from being productive when he's in the lineup.

In 2010, Rolen was the cleanup hitter on a team that led the National League in almost every offensive category.  He was the protection for MVP-candidate, Joey Votto, making his role an especially crucial one for the Reds.  He was a clubhouse leader and again played exceptional defense at third base (his 10.6 UZR ranked third in the NL).  He made just over $11 Million, but, according to FanGraphs, was worth over $20 Million.  Perhaps, as Matt Klaassen has said of Jeter's 2009, this was the "Last Great Season from a great player."  If so, the Reds may live to regret the $13 Million extension they gave Rolen prior to his 2010 campaign.  But, at $6.5 Million per season, Walt Jocketty has left plenty of room to get his money's worth, even assuming a relatively rapid late-30s decline.

Jeter was, again, according to FanGraphs, worth less than $10 Million in 2010 (but more than $6.5).  But, I can already hear pinstriped protestations, "The things Jeter does cannot be quantified."  Okay, let's talk about some things which can't be quantified.  

1.) Jeter is, of course, Captain Intangible, but Rolen isn't exactly a clubhouse cancer.  Walt Jocketty surprised almost everybody in 2009 when he went to great lengths to acquire the aging cornerman and then extended him only a few months later.  Jocketty and Dusty Baker clearly wanted Rolen to be the veteran presence on their young team and thusfar that gamble has paid off handsomely, with the Reds first trip to the postseason in nearly two decades.  Also, Jocketty's avid pursuit of Rolen makes a big statement about who was at fault during the falling out between the third baseman and Tony La Russa when all were with St. Louis.  Jeter and Rolen are both clearly good "chemistry" guys.

2.) Rolen still plays third base at well above par.  There is no reason to believe he'll have to change positions anytime in the near future and probably will retire still at the hot corner.  He provides exactly what you expect from his position - some power, run production, and decent average.  On the other hand, the Yankees must know Jeter is going to stop being an everyday shortstop soon, probably should've happened already.  Not only is there an awkward "Cal Ripken situation" brewing in the Bronx, but even if Jeter eventually accepts a move, it could start a chain reaction of difficult decisions.  Where will he go?  Who else will need to be moved to accommodate the switch?  How will this effect morale?  How will it effect the Yankee defense?  Will he provide enough offense to be a corner infielder, corner outfielder, or DH?  If not, how with the Yankees compensate and how much will they have to spend on that compensation?  Resigning Jeter has potential costs well beyond just the value of the contract.

3.) Although it's quite clear based on the above WAR standings that Rolen has had an extremely impressive career, he's not developed the HOF-caliber cache of Jeter (or anybody else on that list).  Nobody come to the Great American Ballpark with the hopes of catching one last glimpse of Scott Rolen.  They don't ask for their money back when Baker gives Rolen a day off.  Nobody is going to be scalping tickets in order to profit from Rolen's pursuit of 2000 hits or 500 doubles.  When Rolen can no longer produce better than the Reds other options at third base, he will no longer be their third baseman.  At that point, he will either be forced to accept a reduced role or retire.  Can the same things be said of Jeter?  If Joe Girardi decides the Captain is best suited to a super-utility role which gives him three or four starts a week, will Jeter accept it?  Will New York fans?

4.) Steinbrennerdom might say they aren't interested in "milestones," but you can be damn sure they're interested in the millions of dollars in revenue Jeter's pursuit of 3,000 hits and beyond will inevitably generate.  Those "milestones" mean ticket sales, memorabilia sales, television ratings, advertising sales, etc., etc.  Jeter deserves to be compensated accordingly.  I may not understand why he's so popular, but I don't dispute that he is, and popular players are profitable players.  However, the profit motive in this case does not necessarily correlate with the Yankees oft-stated top priority: winning.  Moreover, if the Yankees have proved anything during the last two decades, it's that winning is profitable.  In fact, putting the best team on the field, even if it doesn't include Jeter, might be the quickest and most efficient way to profit.

Jeter's contractual negotiations bring a lot of factors to the table which Rolen's frankly did not.  Even if you are compelled to believe, as I do, that they are comparable offensive players and that Rolen is the superior defensive player, you still have to give Jeter a bonus for his durability and his "brand."  I believe, that if the baseball market were truly perfect, in the Milton Friedman sense, Jeter would get paid  20-25% more than Rolen, at most.  Of course, it isn't perfect, and based on this year's performance, there's a strong likelihood that Rolen is actually underpaid, as he has been for much of his career.

If Rolen had waited until now to negotiate his extension with the Reds, he could've reasonably ended up making about what he made each of the last four seasons ($11 Million/Yr.), probably for the next two, with some incentives and some sort of option for a third.  I think this makes Buster Olney's prediction of 3 yrs./$45 Million for Jeter seem pretty reasonable, perhaps even generous...if this were a perfect market situation.    

But, as one last comparison and point of curiosity, I'd like to know how much each player has made per Win Above Replacement up to this point:

Jeter: $2,930,528 / WAR
Rolen: $1,549,450 / WAR

I think that satisfactorily dispels any notion of a perfect baseball market.

"Narrative Likability Factor" & The New York Yankees

A Yankee win this evening would bring their playoff magic number to 1.  With both Tampa Bay and Minnesota neck-and-neck in terms of overall record, the Bombers still need a good week to assure themselves home-field advantage, but it seems a foregone conclusion, at least, that they'll once again be part of the drama of October baseball.

Earlier this week I discussed the invention of Narrative Likability Factor, a metric for baseball humanists.  NLF definitely gives priority to players and teams which have overcome obstacles and adversity, have suffered from perpetual underdog syndrome, have long-suffering fan-bases, and are replete with soulful, underrated players and coaches.

It probably goes without saying that the franchise which won last year's World Series, owns more championships than any team in professional sports history, consistently boasts the largest payrolls and revenues in the league, and caters primarily to the most affluent citizens of the nation's largest city does not score particularly high on the Narrative Likability scale.  In truth, the Evil Empire acts something like an inverse curvebreaker.  Their presence in the playoffs helps to raise everybody else's score.  Even the Phillies, two-time reigning NL Champs boasting multiple MVP winners and Cy Young candidates, seem like pesky underdogs compared to the team that ousted them just under a year ago.

Still, it seems necessary to set this bar, no matter how low.  The following narratives will probably only be appealing to that unfortunately preponderant sociopathic strain in American culture known as Yankee fandom, but here goes:

• The Boss Is Lost:  He is one of the great antiheroes of baseball history, but that doesn't necessarily make George Steinbrenner's career any less compelling.  We engorge ourselves on baseball villains as ravenously as on baseball's virtuous paragons.  In the event that - God Forbid! - the Yankees hoist another banner in 2010, there will undoubtedly be an entertaining postmodern perversity to the posthumous treatment of the curmudgeonly demagogue with "win-one-for-the-gipper" sentimentality.  His psychotic hellspawn - Hank and Hal - accept the trophy in his honor and blubber, through forced blood-tears, about their early years, hiding for weeks in tight, dark corners of the Steinbrenner mansion, quivering in response to the Boss' tendency towards filial cannibalism.  "We didn't know it then," Hank whinnies, "but he was just preparing us for the reality of the business world.  I will think of him most fondly every time we negotiate a new competitive-bargaining agreement."
• El Capitan:  Derek Jeter has been so uncharacteristically bad this year, posting by far the lowest OPS (707) of his fifteen-year career, that even his most rabid apologists have questioned the wisdom of resigning him to the kind of outlandish contract ($15-$20 Million/year) that seemed a foregone conclusion when the season began.  Several New York columnists, finding it more and more difficult to defend Jeter's performance, which has gotten progressively worse over the course of the season, have already resorted to commending him on rising to the occasion in October.  Captain Clutch, we all assume, will be right back to his old exploits (980 career OPS in ALDS) when the playoffs begin.  If this premonition proves accurate, prepare yourself for a even greater chokeload of Jeter love from Joe Buck and the rest mainstream media in the ALCS and World Series.  Jeter's postseason prowess is the well-placed dimple which provokes a father to call his plain-jane daughter "beautiful."
• Flipping the Script:  The Yankees biggest offseason acquisition, Javier Vazquez (10-9, 5.07 ERA) and Curtis Granderson (779 OPS), have had rather mediocre seasons, prompting the typical backlash from the coven of New York sportswriters who worship exclusively at the church of the trinity - Jeter, Rivera, Posada.  New guys suck, basically.  Granderson, who's been dogged by injuries much of the year, has quietly been very hot over the last month, with 8 HR, 22 RBI, and a 912 OPS.  Vazquez has continued to struggle, fueling the pervasive "can't hack it in New York" rants which began as soon as he was re-acquired.  Expect the tune to change if either or both of them step it up in October.  
• Spend, Baby, Spend:  In the wake of the MLB Confidential leaks at Deadspin, which suggest that teams like the Marlins may be making nearly as much in pure profit as the Yankees by merely pocketing their revenue-sharing dollars (many of which come directly out of the Yankee coffers), the "buying championships" argument is thinner than ever.  If there was ever a reason to root for the Yankees, this is it.  They're annually asked to subsidize their rivals, but then have to listen all year long to bitching about their $250 Million payroll while slimy owners like Jeffrey Loria trade away their best talents the moment they become eligible for arbitration.  At least the Yankees profit-model, as ugly as it may be, especially in the era of Yankee Stadium III, involves putting a competitive product on the field.  You'll need a sizable trust fund if you want to catch an obstructed view of that field, but you'll never have to worry about them starting Emilio Bonafacio is center-field in September.

At the end of last season, after the Yankees made relatively easy work of Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia, I was able to take solace in the fact that if the Yankees didn't win at least one championship every decade, we might lose our sense of evil in the world.  The offseason will be even darker this year if they manage to repeat.  

Narrative Likability Factor: F (uck the Yankees!)

An Idealistic All-Star Ballot (AL)

It's that time of year, when one could responsibly consider being an informed participant in the All-Star Voting.  Last year, we fans elected Josh Hamilton to start.  At the time, he was hitting .226 with 6 HR and had spent much of the previous three months on the D.L.  This is merely the most recent of many ridiculous selections.  From the much-publicized perspective that the All-Star game now "counts," because it determines home-field advantage for the World Series, the fact the game is still treated as an exhibition in terms of voting seems counter-intuitive.  One could, I suppose, rationalize voting for the worst players on  the AL ballot, if you favored team is from the NL.

We'll set the incongruities of the process aside for now, as I offer what I deem the most deserving candidates at each position, starting in the American League:

HippeauxNotes: On the verge of a Yankee implosion?

On Monday, the Yankees blew a five-run lead and needed two homers in the bottom of the ninth in order to walkoff against the Red Sox.  The following day they did the same thing, except this time it was their closer who gave up the go-ahead run in the ninth.  On Wednesday, they got stomped by Wade Davis and the Rays, yielding double-digit runs for the first time all season.  And yesterday Andy Pettitte had by far his worst outing of the season and the Rays once again piled it on, with four homeruns.

There is now more distance between the Yankees and the first-place Rays (5 games) than between the Yankees and the fourth-place Red Sox (3.5 games), and the Bombers have dropped eight out of twelve.  They are still on pace for 99 wins, so isn't necessarily time for desperate measures, but there are several causes for concern in the Bronx.

In the preseason, I got a lot of mileage out of the observation that the Yankees were the only team in 2009 who had eight regulars with 500+ plate appearances and four pitchers who made 30+ starts.  My point was that New York was likely to face more injuries this season and, unlike the Rays and Red Sox, I wasn't sure the Yankee roster was equipped to deal with such turmoil.

Already the Yanks have had to send Jorge Posada, Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson, Chan Ho Park, and Alfredo Aceves to the disabled list for extended stretches, while several other players, most notably Mariano Rivera, have dealt with minor injuries that have made them unavailable for a few games at a time.  As a result, Marcus Thames, Francisco Cervelli, Sergio Mitre, Randy Winn, Ramiro Pena, and Juan Miranda have all seen increased playing time.  The damage has been minimized by the fact that Thames (1001 OPS), Cervelli (904 OPS), and Mitre (3.32 ERA) have played exceptionally well, but the odds are certainly against them maintaining those numbers through prolonged exposure.

Injuries aren't the only cause of concern.  Prior to having three hits on Thursday, Derek Jeter had endured one of the rougher slumps of his career (.190 AVG over 18 games).  He has only four extra-base hits in May and his strikeout rate is way up, while his walk rate is way down.  It's probably just a slump, but with Granderson and Johnson out of the lineup, it's unfortunate timing.

Javier Vazquez has been a notorious disaster.  His 8.01 ERA leading to him being skipped on a couple occasions in recent weeks.  In his last start he managed seven strong innings against the Tigers, easily his longest outing of the season, evidence perhaps that he's on the mend, but the New York media has been quick to scapegoat him and his dreadful second half in 2004 remains an open wound for many Yankee fans.

A. J. Burnett was dominant in April and had a 1.99 ERA after six starts, but in his last three outings he's allowed sixteen earned runs in seventeen innings of work and walked as many batters as he's struck out. Burnett has always been prone to hot and cold streaks, so this is probably nothing more than that, but again, with Vazquez struggling, Pettitte nursing a minor injury, and even Sabathia turning in a couple of poor mid-May starts, the timing has been unfortunate.

Clearly, New York has some breathing room due to their hot start, but with Boston getting healthy and Detroit surging as well, they can't continue to lose two out of every three games for too much longer.  After a challenging road trip to Minnesota, the Yankees will play thirteen of their next sixteen games against Baltimore, Houston, and Cleveland, three of the four worst teams in baseball so far in 2010.  They'll have a chance to get healthy and pad their record a little before heading into a relatively challenging interleague schedule (v. Phillies, v. Mets, @ D-Backs, @ Dodgers).

The next six weeks could see New York and Tampa Bay distancing themselves from everybody else in the American League on the road to becoming the first duo of team to win 100+ games in the same division since the Mariners and Athletics did it in 2001.  Or, we could see the AL East's Wild Card dominance threatened.  Only one time in the last seven seasons (Detroit, '06) has the AL Wild Card come from another division.

Tejada's Dilemma

I mentioned in my free agent bargains post from earlier in the week that Miguel Tejada's negotiating position in the waning weeks of the offseason could be greatly improve if he is willing to consider becoming something other than a shortstop.  I want to point out, however, that there is more at stake than mere pride.  Tejada has been quietly climbing into the conversation of best hitting shortstops in the history of baseball.  His trails only Cal Ripken Jr. and A-Rod in homers hit as a shortstop during the integration era (I put very little stock in the numbers associated with a time during which a large cross-section of talent was not eligible to compete).  With another year at the position, Tejada would likely climb above 300 HR, at which point it would be hard to ignore him as part of the Hall of Fame debate.

Of course, mentions in the Mitchell Report will work against him, at least for the immediate future, but there is no denying Tejada's statistical credentials.  Sure, he's not quite in the league with Ripken, Rodriguez, and Ernie Banks, and he's never been great with the glove, but consider him in comparison to some of the other great shortstops who were most famous for their offensive contributions:

Miguel Tejada:
1871 G, 2114 H, 1116 R, 285 HR, 1185 RBI, 78 SB, .289 AVG, .341 OBP, .469 SLG
Robin Yount:
2856 G, 3142 H, 1632 R, 251 HR, 1406 RBI, 271 SB, .285 AVG, .342 OBP, .430 SLG
Pee Wee Reese:
2166 G, 2170 H, 1338 R, 126 HR, 885 RBI, 232 SB, .269 AVG, .366 OBP, .377 SLG
Alan Trammell:
2293 G, 2365 H, 1231 R, 185 HR, 1003 RBI, 236 SB, .285 AVG, .352 OBP, .415 SLG
Barry Larkin:
2180 G, 2340 H, 1329 R, 198 HR, 960 RBI, 379 SB, .295 AVG, .371 OBP, .444 SLG

All four of the above players were better than Tejada defensively, some by a wide margin, perhaps because they were all quicker, which also shows up in the steals department, but Tejada makes up for that weakness somewhat with his sizable power advantage.  With another couple years of merely mediocre production, he will eclipse all but Yount in most of the major counting categories, and Yount played a lot more total games (having entered the league when he was still a teenager) and played a lot fewer games at shortstop (his career was split almost perfectly down the middle between shortstop and centerfield).

Tejada also fairs pretty well in Bill James's "ink tests."  He won an MVP (in 2002) and received votes in eight different seasons (his highest finish outside of '02 was 5th)  He also earned two Silver Sluggers and made half a dozen All-Star appearances, including one in which he was awarded the All-Star MVP (in 2005).  He led the league in doubles twice and RBIs once, and has the fifth longest consecutive games streak in MLB history (1152 G).  Only Ripken and Steve Garvey have had longer ones since Gehrig.

The Gold Gloves are Meaningless, Laughable (Part 2)

As I discussed yesterday, it is often very difficult to distinguish between the top tier of defenders. That's why I'm not going to bicker with a choice like Jimmy Rollins or Michael Bourn, because while I might prefer Mike Cameron or Rafael Furcal, there is no denying that Bourn and Rollins are in the upper echelon of NL defenders at their respective positions. In other cases, unfortunately, bickering is not only possible, but relatively easy. Here are the five most unfortunate aspects of this week's Gold Glove announcements:

5. The Gold Gloves are not without material consequences.

Yesterday I argued that the Gold Glove voters are uniquely unqualified to make the evaluations the award asks of them. Sad as this may be, one could easily argue that the individual awards presented every November should be regarded generally as meaningless, as players should be focused on team achievements anyway. Before making that argument, however, consider that many of the veterans who routinely win Gold Gloves, despite mediocre production, cost their teams money in the process. Torii Hunter will make an extra $100,000 for each Gold Glove he earns as an Angel. If he brings one home in every year of his contract, and the voters seem prone to making his award routine, than the Angels will pay out half a million dollars, more than the league minimum for rookie players, to subsidize Hunter's trophy case, despite the fact that one could easily argue that they are actually paying for the defense the Hunter played during his years in Minnesota (Hunter hasn't posted a positive UZR since 2005 and hasn't been among the league leaders at his position since 2003).

4. Do we really need to exaggerate the quality of Derek Jeter?

For years, Derek Jeter has been at the center of controversies regarding fielding statistics. Baseball Prospectus led the way in demonstrating that not only was Jeter not worthy of his Gold Gloves, but was, in fact, from 2004 until 2007 (during which time he won three Gold Gloves), the worst everyday shortstop in all of baseball. Eventually, this incredible discovery made its way into the mainstream media and even to the proud ears of Jeter himself. Many started speculating that a position change would be demanded, and soon. Even the Gold Glove voters denied him the award in '07 and '08, although at least one of their choices, Michael Young in '08, was arguably even worse.

The Yankee captain should be commended, however, because instead of becoming angry and belittling the evidence, as players are prone to do, he set about making himself better. He hired personal trainers and dedicated his offseason to improving his agility, quickness, and range. In 2008 he was an average AL shortstop defensively, which, of course, combined with his superior offensive talents, made him a very valuable commodity. And in 2009, he was even better. His 6.6 UZR* was the best of his career, as was his .986 fielding percentage. We should all note this as persuasive evidence that Derek Jeter is, in fact, deserving of his "Captain Intangibles" legacy. What it doesn't make him, however, is the best defensive shortstop in the AL. As the answer to that question, I would have accepted Elvis Andrus (10.7 UZR, .968 F%), Cesar Izturis (10.8 UZR, .985 F%), Adam Everett (8.9 UZR, .969 F%), or Erick Aybar (7.8 UZR, .983 F%). Unlike Jeter, each of these guys gets paid primarily for his glovework. It would be nice to see their dedication to that facet of the game get acknowledgement. After all, Derek Jeter takes home plenty of other hardware (see, in 2009 alone, Roberto Clemente Award, Hank Aaron Award, World Series ring, and probable Silver Slugger).

3. If you thought Mark Texeira was good this year, wait until you see what he's actually capable of.

Remember when Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove at first base even though he'd spent the entire season at Designated Hitter. It wasn't quite that egregious, but it was a little odd that Texeira's fielding reputation grew to new proportions in the spotlight of New York, even though it appeared to anybody that had been paying attention to his career throughout his tenure with Texas, Atlanta, and Anaheim that Texeira was struggling (I guess this is what happens when you follow Jason Giambi). He posted career lows in assists, range factor, and UZR. Perhaps nursing some nagging injuries, he was reluctant to throw the ball or move away from the bag. His numbers actually and embarrassingly resembled those of well-known stick-in-the-muds and DH-types, Billy Butler and Russell Branyan. He recorded less assists as a first baseman (49) than Kevin Youkilis (52), despite the fact that Youk played less than half as many innings at the position. Albert Pujols played a similar number of innings and recorded 185 assists.

Texeira will probably get better and likely will earn some Gold Gloves over the course of his career. Too bad he stole one this season from Miguel Cabrera, Kendry Morales, or Lyle Overbay.

2. Why do NL managers hate Albert Pujols and Chase Utley?

One of the grand ironies of this year's Gold Gloves is that while Jeter, Texeira, Joe Mauer, and Shane Victorino earned Gold Gloves largely based on their offensive contributions, two MVP-caliber sluggers who were actually dominant on both sides of the ball missed out, yet again. Chase Utley has now led NL 2B in UZR (by a significant margin) for five consecutive seasons. Here are his stats compared with 2009 winner Orlando Hudson and 2008 winner Brandon Phillips (who also has a case for being gypped this season):

Utley - 1357 INN, .985 F%, 408 A, 86 DP, 10.8 UZR

Phillips - 1332 INN, .988 F%, 409 A, 95 DP, 6.9 UZR

Hudson - 1272 INN, .988 F%, 359 A, 68 DP, -3.3 UZR

Hudson, certainly not a bad defender, was probably at best the fifth or sixth best second-baseman in the NL this season. Utley was the best and Phillips has been his only near competition for a long time now. For anybody else to win is frankly atrocious.

The Pujols case isn't quite as bad. Adrian Gonzalez is a very solid defender, but Pujols has in some ways changed how first base is played. He has led the league in range by a long shot in each of the last two seasons, mainly because he continues to play deeper and further from the bag than anybody else, without giving up a greater number of hits down the line. He changes the whole infield dynamic by giving converted outfielder Skip Schumaker some leeway to protect up the middle. He also gives himself the opportunity to range deep into foul territory to catch pop-ups, thus allowing Ryan Ludwick to play deeper and further off the line. Pujols dominance shows up in range factor (10.4 when the next best guy is at 9.7), assists (185 when the next best guy is at 136), double plays (140 when the next best guy is at 135), and putouts (1473 when the next best guy is 1387), as well as the more substantial and complicated metrics. It's a wonder the NL voters haven't noticed.

1. There was no acknowledgement for the single most valuable defender in all of baseball, Franklin Gutierrez.

This is a true tragedy. My qualm is not some much with the fact the AL voters recognized Torii Hunter, Ichiro, and Adam Jones, all of whom are fine defenders, but that they failed to noticed Gutierrez is an absolute travesty. In his first year as a full-time centerfielder, Gutierrez posted a ridiculous 29.1 UZR, the best by any player since Andruw Jones posted a 30.0 in 2005. Like Jones, Gutierrez has deceptive speed, gliding effortlessly to balls which many, seemingly faster players have to dive for, and via extraordinary route choices expands his range to cover almost two thirds of the outfield. Unlike Jones, he will never hit 50 HR, and therefore may never catch the eye of Gold Glove voters.

Here are my Gold Glove choices:

NL:

C - Yadier Molina

1B - Albert Pujols

2B - Chase Utley

3B - Ryan Zimmerman

SS - Rafael Furcal

LF - Matt Kemp

CF - Mike Cameron

RF - Randy Winn

P - Adam Wainwright

AL:

C - Gerald Laird

1B - Miguel Cabrera

2B - Placido Polanco

3B - Evan Longoria

SS - Elvis Andrus

LF - Carl Crawford

CF - Franklin Gutierrez

RF - David DeJesus

P - Mark Buehrle

*Ultimate Zone Rating is a defensive metric from FanGraphs which combines for infielders analytical metrics for range, double play efficiency, and general efficiency (errors, etc.) and for outfielders arm strength, range, and general efficiency.

Bronx Tales

I'd like to admit from the very start that the Yankees are quite clearly the best team in baseball right now. They're playing confident, consistent baseball at home and on the road. They've got great depth in the lineup, decent depth on the pitching staff, and a solid defense (currently, they're 5th in the AL in fielding percentage). However, as is almost always the case when the Yankees are running hot, there are some audacious claims being made by the Yankee faithful which I'd like to address here.

1.) Derek Jeter is once again the best shortstop in the AL, both offensively and defensively.

There is no doubt that Jeter has made strides to improve his defense since declarations regarding his weakness in that facet of the game became something of a fad among sabermetricians. However, rumors of his resurgence have been greatly exaggerated. Jeter does have a positive Ultimate Zone Rating for the first time since the stat began being recorded in 2001 (quite possible for the first time in his career). However, he is still dead last among AL shortstop in range. His improvement is also assisted by the fact that his double-play partner, Robinson Cano, is also having a career year defensively. Jeter is still clearly inferior to Elvis Andrus and Marco Scutaro, and while his numbers are comparable, I would be reluctant to choose him over younger, quicker, better armed guys like Alexei Ramirez and Erick Aybar.

At the plate, Jeter is on pace for 20 HR for the first time since 2004. He's got his best OPS since he challenged for the MVP in 2006 and he's already got 20 SB, also his most since 2006. Again, notions of his resurgence should be tempered. Like most Yankees, he has been assisted dramatically by the friendly confines of their new ballpark. Jeter's OPS on the road (797) is only 20 points higher than his OPS for 2008. Only 3 of his 14 HR and 18 of his 50 RBI have come away from Yankee Stadium. Jeter remains, as he has been for the last couple years, an excellent contact hitter (.318 at home and on the road) with decent plate discipline and above average baserunning ability. Partially because the AL does not boast anybody on par with guys like Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jimmy Rollins, Jeter is among the cream of the crop. However, Jeter fans should note that he trails Jason Bartlett of the Rays in almost ever offensive category (AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, RBI, SB, SB%, 2B, 3B). His numbers are almost identical to Marco Scutaro's, who doesn't benefit from his home ballpark.

Jeter dedication to improving his defense may mean that he will be able to remain a reasonable starter at shortstop for a couple more seasons, which will save the Yankees from a tough decision, but Jeter is still clearly in the twilight of his career and no longer among the elite at his or really any position.

2.) Mark Texeira is obviously the AL MVP.

Tex is having a great season, especially considering how poor it started and the general pressure of joining the Yankees as a mega-free agent and "future of the franchise" type player. However, let's diffuse the hyperbolic nature of this claim quickly by comparing his numbers to fellow AL first-baseman, Justin Morneau.

Texeira: .288/.385/.565, 71 R, 30 HR, 86 RBI, -0.4 UZR
Morneau: .300/.388/.562, 79 R, 28 HR, 94 RBI, -0.9 UZR

I think it's apparent from these lines that Texeira is not running away from the field, and that's not even considering the fact that Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera belong in the conversation as well. When one looks closer at the comparison with Morneau, Texeira picks up another disadvantage. While Morneau has very comparable numbers home and away (988 OPS/13 HR @ Home, 905 OPS/15 HR on Road), Texeira is an entirely different player away from the infamous right-field pavilion at Yankee Stadium (1031 OPS/19 HR @ Home, 867 OPS/11 HR on Road). There's nothing wrong with an 867 OPS. However, if you're going to win an MVP with that number, you better be a Gold Glove winning middle infielder (a.k.a. Pedroia in '08, Tejada in '02).

Tex is an impressive MVP candidate, but it isn't quite time to start clearing room on the shelf.

3.) The starting rotation is the best in baseball.

Yankees starters are 13th in ML in ERA, 12th in innings pitched, and tied for 7th in wins, so clearly this isn't the best rotation statistically. However, clearly what Yankees fans are excited about is the potential postseason rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and (occasionally) Chamberlain. Sabathia is very quietly turning in another excellent season. His ERA (3.64) is higher than it's been since 2005, but he's on pace for 18 wins and 186 K, which are damn fine numbers. He's also currently on pace for nearly 240 IP. He's gone seven innings or more in 16 of his 25 starts. That's great news during the regular season. However, Sabathia also threw 240+ innings in '07 and '08. His heavy load may be one explanation why his postseason ERA is 7.92. New York would be well served to rest their Ace as much as possible down the stretch, a luxury it looks like they will have, so that Sabathia can enter the playoffs refreshed.

It should also be noted that their #2, A. J. Burnett, has never thrown a postseason pitch, which makes him a bit of a wild card. The Yankees top three is solid, but it isn't noticably better than the trios in San Francisco, Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia, and St. Louis.

Why do I hate Derek Jeter?

It has become cliche. More than a handful of essays and articles have been published exposing the flaws in Jeter's game: his defense, primarily, but also his lack of speed and power, his unwillingness to change positions or bat lower in the lineup, his mediocre pitch selection, etc. Everywhere outside the Bronx, Jeter-haters abound. I've despised Jeter with a passion for almost a decade, brought on first by his being the centerpiece of the Millennial Yankee Dynasty and later by his undeserved Gold Gloves in '04, '05, and '06 which stole the spotlight from underappreciated defensive contributers like Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, and Alex Gonzalez.

These days what rubs me the wrong way is not only Jeter's holier-than-thou attitude, but the awestruck tone taken on by baseball commentators when the talk about him. Cue Rick Sutcliffe, coloring the World Baseball Classic last night on ESPN2. Apparently, Captain Jeter had not been in the lineup prior to the USA's elimination game against the Netherlands, supplanted by Jimmy Rollins, he of the deserved Gold Gloves, MVP award, and 2008 World Series ring. A true Captain America, one would assume, would've taken the benching in stride, complimented his teammate, and prepared for whatever opportunity might present itself. Jeter, however, according to Sutcliffe, was in an unprecedented "foul mood" during batting practice. Strangely, Sutcliffe did not deride the captain for putting his own pride ahead of his support of the club, but rather took it as an indication that "things needed to change" in the US clubhouse. Throughout the game (Jeter was inserted in the lineup at DH when Chipper Jones was scratched) Sutcliffe continued to praise "Mr. November," saying at one point, "How could you not love him?" The problem was, while J-Roll went 2-for-4 with a triple, homer, and 4 RBI, as well as some run-saving defense plays, Jeter was an absolute rally-killer, finishing 0-for-3 with six men left on base.

Davey Johnson promised that he would stick with the "hot hand" going into the WBC. It will be interesting to see if he can stick to his guns even when it means giving a living legend the cold shoulder. The US team faces a much tougher elimination game against either Venezuela or Puerto Rico (both of whom have already beat the US once) on Tuesday.

2009 Hi-Lo (Part One)

Having now completed 3 mock auctions, 4 actual auctions, and 3 drafts, I feel like I'm getting a sense of which players are being especially favored by owners this year and which are flying under the radar. Here are my overrated and underrated teams going into 2009.

Catcher:

+ Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez, Yadier Molina, Jeff Clement
- Matt Wieters, Geo Soto

It is safe to say the Russell Martin and Brian McCann should be the first backstops off the board and for the most part that seems to be happening. What's surprising is that V-Mart, once considered by far the best option at his position, has fallen considerably in many rankings, behind the likes of Martin, McCann, Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, and Ryan Doumit after an injury-plagued 2008 campaign. Martinez averaged 21 HR and 97 RBI in the four preceding season and I see no reason why he won't return to form, especially since he'll be seeing more time at 1B and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach. In September Martinez hit .288 with 14 RBI, even after a prolonged absence. Take him with confidence for $8-10 or in the middle rounds. Meanwhile, Geo Soto will cost as much as $15 or a pick in the first five rounds and is unlikely to perform any better than V-Mart. I like Soto, but following up on his Rookie of the Year campaign is going to be difficult. I wouldn't consider him an elite option until he proves he can do it two years in a row.

Matt Wieters is going to be a monster. Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer, but unless you're in a keeper league or you can get him for under $5 or in the late rounds, he's not worth the investment just yet. The Orioles will delay his arrival in order to keep him off the arbitration clock. Remember Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun, both of whom were held off until late May or early June for similar reasons, only got tickets to the show as early as they did because their clubs had made themselves contenders. Unless the Orioles are surprising everybody this spring (not likely), I don't see Wieters getting at-bats before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Jeff Clement will work his way into the lineup at C, 1B, or DH nearly everyday from the start of the year. He's just 25 and had a 1131 OPS at AAA in 2008.

Ramon Hernandez is a good power option (15 HR in '08) who's moving to the Great American Smallpark in Cincinnati. He's a solid late-round sleeper. Yadier Molina quietly hit above .300 last year. He's also just 25, but already has four seasons as a big-league regular. His offensive production has improved every year. These are the type of guys who come cheap and contribute at a couple of categories, which is much to be thankful for at a thin position.

First Base:

+ Justin Morneau
- Mark Texeira, Chris Davis

There aren't a lot of steals at this position. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are potentially to two most valuable players on the board and everybody knows it. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Lance Berkman aren't far behind. If any one of these fellows falls to the third round or goes for less than $25, you've gotten a heck of a deal. The same should be said of Justin Morneau, yet in two separate auctions I got him for $24. That seems strange for a guy who's a perennial MVP candidate. He's only 27 and he already has three years of at least 23 HR and 111 RBI. He may not have the upside of Howard or Fielder, but a season of .300 - 100 - 30 - 125 is a fairly safe bet.

Texeira is also a quality option, but I'm seeing him going early in the first-round and for upwards of $35 in the wake of his signing with New York. Maybe that will prove a reasonable estimation of his value, but you can have Pujols, Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, or Jose Reyes for around the same price. You be the judge.

Maybe I just arrived late on the Chris Davis bandwagon (unusual for me) and I understand that the 2008 numbers are pretty stratospheric (.305 -119-40-130-11 combined at AA/AAA/MLB), but I caution you to remember the likes of Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young. Chris Davis hasn't proven his pitch selection capability quite yet and until he does, I not willing to rank him ahead of Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, and James Loney (which is where Davis is getting drafted). Caution is warranted here.

Second Base:

+ Brandon Phillips, Orlando Hudson
- Mark DeRosa

I let others pay $30 for Dustin Pedroia (coming off career year), Chase Utley (coming off injury), and Ian Kinsler (coming off injury in a career year), I'll happily grab Brandon Phillips for around $20. He will put up quality stats in at least four categories and has the five-tool talent outperform the lot of him (see also, Alexei Ramirez, who has now moved to shortstop).

Based on my experience, Orlando Hudson is still going to be on the board in Round 25. You could do much worse with that pick, especially if you can slot him in as your third middle infielder. Between injuries the last two seasons Hudson has hit .300+ with an 800+ OPS, and that was on a team that expected him to bat in the three hole. Now he's likely to slot in between Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. As long as he's in the lineup he'll be a cheap producer in all five categories.

Mark DeRosa is coming off three consecutive seasons of improving production, capped off by a .285-103-21-87-6 year with the Cubs in '08 (kudos, Jim Hendry). Now he's 34 and heading back to the AL, to a team (Cleveland) which has a lot of young talent waiting in the wings. Don't be surprised if DeRosa loses his starting job and ends up as a veteran utility-man who only gets around 400 AB. We'll miss him in Chicago, but I'm quite skeptical.

Third Base:

+ Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman
- Evan Longoria

Maybe Longoria will equal or improve upon his rookie campaign, as Ryan Braun did last year, but I worry about the high ticket price. He's been going considerably ahead of guys like Aramis Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis, both of whom seem like safer options to me. His K/BB ratio (almost 3/1) worries me, especially since in was worst at the end of last year (20/3 in September, 20/5 in October). He still has to prove that he's capable of adjusting to the league and could be prone to some extended slumps which you are not likely to get from Ramirez or Youkilis.

Atkins is the prototype of the underrated player. He consistently lasts until the middle to late rounds, despite averaging .300-93-25-110 the last three seasons. He'll no longer benefit from the presence of Matt Holliday, but he still represents a top-quality choice at a surprisingly think position (especially now that A-Rod is questionable).

Nobody wants to touch Nationals hitters after they were among the worst in baseball last season, with no player exceeding 14 HR or 61 RBI. However, Zimmerman was limited to only 106 games in 2008 and stands to benefit the most from the addition of Adam Dunn, who will likely hit cleanup right behind him. Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Christian Guzman should be capable table-setters and, most importantly, Zimmerman will be only 24 in his fourth big-league season. He seems to be consistently available late in the draft or auction. Few players at that point have this much upside.

Shortstop:

+ Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitzki
- Derek Jeter

Remember, "intangibles" are not a fantasy category, so the fact the Jeter is going directly behind Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins is probably the most laughable aspect of this years draft. Jeter is still a solid middle-of-the-road shortstop, capable of providing you with .300-90-10-70-10, but similar guys are available late in the draft (i.e. Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta). If you're going to pay a premium price, take a gamble on Furcal, Tulowitzki, Alexei Ramirez, or Stephen Drew, all of whom could be competing with the trio of elite shortstops in years to come. Furcal will probably be the cheapest of the group (because he is the oldest and coming off an injury-plagued season). His combination of speed, plate discipline, and a threatening lineup behind him could allow him to challenge for a batting title and he has shown consistently improving power as his career has progressed. Two years of battling injuries may lead us to forget he is still in his prime.

Hall of Fame Questions

Craig Biggio, Sammy Sosa, and Mike Piazza have officially announced their retirements.  Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds have been forced into exile.  John Smoltz, Ken Griffey Jr., Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux have expiring contracts and have been dropping occasional hints.  The heroes of my early teens will soon become managers, pitching coaches, bad broadcasters, and semi-anonymous multi-millionaires, so it seems like a good time to discuss the inevitable questions of Hall of Fame credentials.  

First of all, in my opinion, it is a given that all of the players mentioned above are shoo-in first ballot players.  As should be Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro.  It may be "The Steroid Era," and some of these guys may have benefitted for performance-enhancing drugs, but most, if not all, of them would've been enshrined regardless and I don't think there is anything more shameful about this "era" than "The Segregation Era," "The Anti-Semetism Era," "The Spitball Era," and "The Collusion Era" (has it ended?).  Unlike Bud Selig and the MLB marketing department, I am not attracted to baseball history by any illusion of Disney World purity.  Any good historian knows, accuracy is almost always more entertaining than myth.  

I would like to consider the cases of a few borderline players who are entering the twilight of their careers.

Derek Jeter - SS - New York Yankees

I am a board-certified Jeter-hater, as most of you know, but I am not so prejudiced as to be incapable of looking at him rationally.  If he gets to 3,000 hits, which seems a foregone conclusion, he deserves to get into the Hall.  Jeter is great contact hitter, I have never disputed that.  He is a postseason God, there can be no doubt.  What makes me think that he's dramatically overrated is his putrid defense and the fact that the infamous captain doesn't seem to have all that much positive sway in a clubhouse which is constantly in turmoil.  I also think that the fawning of commentators over his potential run at 4,000 hits is ridiculous.  Jeter is 34.  He would need more than 7 seasons of 200+ hits to get to 4,000.  He has only gotten to 200 hits in six of his first twelve full seasons.  Jeter's power is dramatically declining (fewer homers in each of the last four seasons), as is his speed (only 16 for 24 in stolen bases the last two years).  He will, naturally, be less of an iron-man as he ages, as demonstrated by a trip to the D.L. already this season (the first since 2003).  Jeter's future is uncertain in many ways.  His massive contract will expire after 2010.  One would expect he will remain a Yankee, though at a significant discount, but his role will have to be determined.  I think even Yankee fans and management are near to the realization that he won't be a shortstop for much longer.  His range and fielding percentage have declined every season since 2005.  He was arguably the worst in the AL in 2007 (last in Range Factor, last in Zone Rating, 6th in Fielding Percentage).  However, he doesn't profile as the kind of hitter the Yankees expect for their corner outfield positions.  They just signed a pretty good player to be their third baseman for the next decade.  So, are the Yankees going to let excellent young players like Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera become free agents so that they can free up space for a declining singles-hitting captain who may not be particularly good at second or in center.  We'll have to wait and see.

Chipper Jones - 3B - Atlanta Braves

The long-time face of the evil Braves isn't exactly my favorite player, but I have to agree with Rob Neyer's article arguing for Jones' inevitable enshrinement.  Like Jeter, Jones has led many of his teams to postseason appearances and performed well when there (13 HR and 870 OPS in 92 games).  Unlike Jeter, he hasn't exactly been indestructible.  He hasn't played upwards of 140 games since 2003.  However, when he's been in the lineup, there's been no sign of decline.  He doesn't steal bases anymore, but he hasn't since he turned 30 (he's 36 now), and he actually seems to be getting better as a hitter.  His OPS has improved every year since 2004.  So, it seems safe to say he will improve on numbers which are already pretty noteworthy.  Among third baseman, only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Matthews have hit more home runs, and if he hits 25+ for four more years (not impossible), he might catch Matthews.  His career OPS is the best ever (for 3B).  He'll certainly reach 1500 RBI (moving him into the top 50 all-time) and has an outside shot at 3,000 hits.  Chipper won't get any assistance from his defense, but he shouldn't need it.  And, it goes without saying, this discussion isn't even necessary if he hits .400 this season.

Jason Varitek - C - Boston Red Sox

Varitek is a great example of the kind of player who might be overlooked in an era of offensive production.  However, he is the first Red Sox catcher to capture two World Championships since Pinch Thomas (1915 & 1916) and his newsworthy record of being behind the plate for four no-hitters might help him garner some voter attention.  Varitek's talent behind the plate has been underestimated because he's played most of his career in the shadow of Pudge Rodriguez.  His only Gold Glove came in 2005.  His offensive numbers are nothing to be ashamed of.  Among players who have spent 90% of their careers behind the plate, Varitek is 8th in OPS.  Of the seven players in front of him, only Chris Hoiles has no shot at the Hall (4 are already in, Rodriguez is a shoo-in, and, speaking of catchers with handfuls of rings, Jorge Posada is another borderline selection).  If he were eligible tomorrow, I don't think I'd vote for him, but that doesn't mean a couple more BoSox championships wouldn't persuade me otherwise.

Mike Mussina - SP - New York Yankees

Moose hasn't been very good for the last few years, I know.  He's never won 20 games in a season or a Cy Young and a run at 300 wins isn't looking likely.  But he's got more strikeouts than Tom Glavine and only two players (Mickey Lolich & Frank Tanana) with as many strikeouts as the Moose are not in the Hall (or headed there).  He's got more wins than Curt Schilling and a better winning percentage than Schilling, Glavine, Smoltz, and Greg Maddux (!), all players from the same era who played for good teams and seem certainly headed for Cooperstown.  However, only one player (Red Ruffing) with an ERA as high as Mussina on his career (3.71) is in the Hall.  Mussina could be in the position to change the standards.  Baseball pundits seem confident that the 300 win plateau is going to be unrealistic for this generation's pitchers.  The 3.50 career ERA might be a similarly high expectation, considering the AL average in the last decade has been well above 4.50.  I'd say no to Mussina, but I bet a significant number of baseball writers will feel otherwise.

Trevor Hoffman - RP - San Diego Padres

I know, the game's all-time leader in saves should be a sure thing, right?  Well, it didn't work out that way for Lee Smith and he had more wins, more strikeouts, more innings pitched, and more All-Star appearances than Hoffman, with a similarly good career ERA (3.03 compared to 2.76) and several downright dominating seasons.  Like Smith, Hoffman never won a World Series and he only got there once.  More importantly, when Smith became eligible in 2002, he was still the reigning saves king, which would've seemed to help his case.  By the time Hoffman's name gets on the ballot, he probably will have been surpassed by Mariano Rivera, whose credentials are, frankly, much, much more impressive.  He already leads Hoffman in wins, ERA, innings, and All-Star appearances, not to mention that ridiculous postseason line: 8-1, 34 SV, 0.77 ERA, 91 K, 16 BB, 117 IP.  There are only four full-time relievers in the Hall, none of them with upwards of 400 saves.  They will be setting a new precedent when they enshrine a career closer.  Something tells me that Mo Rivera is destined to be that precedent (though Hoffman may follow him).