Wandy Rodriguez Is This Year's Cliff Lee?!?

This found its way into by inbox yesterday:

"Last year Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt helped to carry teams into the postseason after being traded at midseason.  Which potential aces could be on the market at this year's deadline?" - Jerry

Thanks, Jerry.  It's an interesting question.

Yes, last year Roy Oswalt was traded from Houston to Philadelphia and his dominance during a stretch of a dozen starts (7-1, 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) was a significant factor in the Phillies late-season push.

Ruben Amaro made a very similar move for Cliff Lee in 2009 and Lee famously went 11-4 for his new franchise, including four wins in the postseason.  Last year, however, Lee's story was slightly different.  He actually struggled (by his standards) in his fifteen regular season starts for the Rangers (4-6, 3.98 ERA), but did manage to make Jon Daniels look pretty good in October.

In 2008, it was C. C. Sabathia who was the mercenary former Indian.  He absolutely carried his new team, the Brewers, into the playoffs with a 17 start run in which he was 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 7(!) complete games.

In the very same year, Rich Harden moved from Oakland to Chicago and went 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 12 starts, helping to guide the Cubs to their best season since the Roosevelt administration.

The upshot of all this is that, like Jerry, we've come to treat the trading of a "mercenary Ace" as a necessary part of the baseball narrative, when, in fact, history shows that the examples cited above are very much outliers.  Could it be that this is a new trend in the 21st-century game that will continue indefinitely?  Perhaps.  But it's also very possible that we see little or no movement of premier starters at the 2011 deadline.

One thing that leads me to this conclusion is that the class of free agent starting pitchers next offseason doesn't feature a marquis name like Cliff Lee or C. C. Sabathia.  Mark Buehrle is probably the best pitcher scheduled to become a free agent to 2012.

Buehrle is certainly capable of having an Oswalt-esque stretch of dominance.  However, the other factor that makes this question hard to answer is that the availability of a Buehrle or a Chris Carpenter is largely dependent on whether their current franchises are still in the playoff mix.  Kenny Williams has certainly managed his offseason like a man who expects to be playing for the AL Central crown in August and September.  If that's the case, the face of the franchise, Mark Buehrle, ain't goin' nowhere.

If there's going to be a "mercenary Ace" in 2011, Carpenter is probably the odds-on favorite.  Carp's current contract features a $15 Million option for 2012.  As good as Carpenter is when he's on the mound, that's a big number for what will be a 37-year-old pitcher with a long injury history.  St. Louis, as you may have heard, has some other very expensive priorities, so it may be sensible for John Mozeliak to leave the tough decision about Carpenter's option to somebody else.

On the other hand, Carpenter is very, very popular in St. Louis.  He's owes a great deal to Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa.  And he has "no-trade" protection.  If he believes St. Louis has a chance of getting themselves back in the playoff picture in the next couple years, he may simple decline to move.

It's not always impending free agents who are involved in these deals.  Lee (in '09) and Oswalt both had additional years when they were traded.  There are certainly scenarios in which one could see Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, Matt Cain, or Tim Hudson being shopped, but all of their teams are entering the season with sincere playoff aspirations.  Even if they were to go on the market, each would command a relatively massive package in return and could end up, like Roy Halladay in 2009, being beyond the reach of interested clubs.

The other possibility is that their is a "once and future Ace" who is on the verge of having a Renaissance season.  Candidates for that mantle would include Jake Peavy, James Shields, and Scott Kazmir.  If they were to return to their former levels of production AND their current franchise fell out of the playoff picture by midseason, you could definitely see them being traded at a price which wasn't wholly insurmountable.

Finally, this gives me opportunity to tout one of the favorite sleeper candidates for 2011.  Wandy Rodriguez of the Houston Astros will be a free agent in 2012.  Certainly, at this moment, nobody thinks of him as analogous to Cliff Lee or C. C. Sabathia, but just two years ago Wandy put up Ace numbers (14-12, 3.02 ERA, 206 IP, 193 K).  His overall performance in 2010 was disappointing (11-12, 3.60 ERA), but don't make the mistake of overlooking his second half.  From June 24th on, a stretch of 18 starts, Way-Rod went 8-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 126 K in 120 IP.  One can imagine how much more press he would've gotten had he been pitching like that for a contender.  The Astros are in rebuilding mode, and at 32, Wandy isn't exactly the kind of guy you build around.  He'll be in motion by the deadline and if he begins 2011 in the fashion he ended 2012, there could be a bidding war.

Offseason Prospectus #18: The Houston Astros

Houston's general manager, Ed Wade, made perhaps his biggest splash of the winter this weekend by signing free agent right-hander, Brett Myers, for $5 Million.  Although Wade has been busy throughout the Hot Stove season, Myers is the most reputable addition he's made.  Wade chose, instead of chasing John Lackey, Chone Figgins, or any of the other big-ticket free agents who would've been good fits in Houston, to pursue a handful of less notable complimentary players.  He renovated the bullpen by signing Brandon Lyon (3 yrs./$15 Mil.) and trading for Matt Lindstrom.  He improved his infield defense by adding Pedro Feliz (1 yr./$4.5 Mil.) and allowing Miguel Tejada to walk, so that he could cede shortstop to some combination of Jeff Keppinger and prospects.  Finally, he signed Myers, who despite struggling to stay out of trouble and on the field in Philadelphia, pitched quite well as both a starter and a late-inning reliever.  The Astros would like him to join the rotation, which was their Achillies heel in 2009.

Free Agents:

Brandon Backe (32) RHSP

Doug Brocail (43) RHRP

Chris Coste (37) C [Signed w/ Mets]

Darin Erstad (36) 1B/OF

Geoff Geary (33) RHRP

Mike Hampton (37) LHSP

Latroy Hawkins (37) RHRP [Signed w/ Brewers]

Miguel Tejada (36) SS

Jose Valverde (30) RHCL  

Arbitration Eligible:

Michael Bourn (27) CF

Tim Byrdak (36) LHRP

Jeff Keppinger (30) UT

Hunter Pence (27) RF

Humberto Quintero (30) C

Wandy Rodriguez (31) LHSP

Chris Sampson (32) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Chris Johnson (25) 3B

Tommy Manzella (27) SS

Wladimir Sutil (25) SS

Polin Trinidad (25) LHSP

Unfortunately for the Astros and their fans, Houston posted one of its worst seasons of the decade in 2009, despite having the franchise's largest ever payroll ($103 Million).  Astros County expects Houston will try to roll back that payroll slightly in 2010, to somewhere between $90-95 Million.  The 'Stros do have a fair number of veterans coming off their books, but they still have enormous commitments to Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Lee, as well as sizable arbitration awards coming for Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn.  Astros County thoughtfully argues that the Houston fan base can't expect the franchise to make another commitment this offseason of anything more than $3 Million.  That means even if Ed Wade uses that remaining cash very efficiently, the 2010 Astros are still going to have some gaping holes, especially for a team that hopes to compete with at least three divisional contenders: the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs.


I'll start with some good news.  The Astros rotation will be better than it was in '09.  Granted, it couldn't be much worse.  The '09 'Stros finished with a rotational ERA of 4.79, 14th in the NL.  But there's cause for hope going forward.  Roy Oswalt had the worst season of his career (8-6, 4.12 ERA).  At only 32, he's almost sure to bounce back.  Wandy Rodriguez (14-12, 3.02) continued to trend in the right direction, developing into a solid #2 starter.  He has improved his ERA, WHIP, and K/BB rate in each of the last three seasons, but continues to struggle on the road (4.05 ERA, compared to 2.08 at Minute Maid), which means there's still room for improvement.  Rodriguez remains a somewhat unheralded pitcher and could be a breakout player in '10.


Myers will likely slot into the rotation at #3, followed by Bud Norris.  Norris made ten starts as a rookie, going 6-3 with a 4.53 ERA.  He finished especially strong by going 3-0 in four September starts witha 1.57 ERA, 24 K, and only 6 BB in 23 innings.  Compare that to an August in which he walked 18 batters in 30 innings, causing his ERA to skyrocket (6.98).  If he has indeed solved those control issues, he could be a very solid back-end starter this coming season and a future star.


Yorman Bazardo, Felipe Paulino, Brian Moehler, and Polin Trinidad will also be fighting for starts, and with the exception of Moehler there is reason to believe that all of them have fairly bright futures.  Paulino was very inconsisten in '09, but is still only 26 and showed a solid strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) and was even dominant for brief stretches.  Bazardo and Trinidad are youngsters who have proven themselves in the minors and will look for the opportunity to reach the bigs for good in 2010.


The Astros lineup reminds me a great deal of the '09 Twins.  At the top, their is some serious thunder.  Michael Bourn has developed into solid archetypal center-fielder/leadoff-hitter, whose speed makes him an asset on both sides of the ball, an in '09 he raised his OBP by 70 points, to a respectable .354.  Behind him are Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Hunter Pence, a commendable trio of sluggers who have combined for 75+ HR in each of the last three seasons.  However, as in Minnesota, the bottom of the Astros lineup is a barren wasteland.  Kaz Matsui's OPS dropped to 659 in '09.  Pedro Feliz was only slightly better, at 694, and that was when he was hitting in that mechanism of pitcher fatigue, the lineup of the Philadelphia Phillies.  Behind them there will be J. R. Towles (609 OPS in 234 MLB AB) and either Keppinger (707 OPS in '09) or one of the defensively-minded prospects, Tommy Manzella (756 OPS at AAA in '09) or Wladimir Sutil (673 OPS at AA in '09).  Followed by a pitcher, that means there are five "easy outs" in a row, which will also make it easier for pitchers to avoid Berkman and Lee or attack Bourn and Pence as necessary.  If the Astros are going to have a chance this season, they need one of those "easy outs" to exceed expectations.  The most likely candidates are Matsui, who had a 781 OPS as recently as '08, and Towles, who posted strong OBP numbers throughout the minor leagues.  


The other possibility is that Ed Wade will be able to secure an additional cheap bat from among the disappointed free agents who are still looking for work come Spring Training.  I'm guessing he's keenly following negotiations with Orlando Cabrera and Rod Barajas. 


While the Astros did add two solid relievers this offseason (Lyon and Lindstrom), they also lost one of baseball's best closers (Jose Valverde) and their top set-up man (LaTroy Hawkins).  It will be a major challenge for Lyon and Lindstrom to replace that pair, who combined in '09 for 117 innings, 36 saves, 20 holds, and a 2.21 ERA.  The Astros bullpen was hardly lights out even with Valverde and Hawkins (4.13 ERA in '09), so Houston needs somebody to make a BIG step forward and protect leads for their improved rotation.  Jeff Fulchino (3.40 ERA in 82 IP) and Tim Byrdak (3.23 ERA in 61 IP) will need to build on their solid '09 performances and somebody from the group of young, promising arms will need to become a late-inning guys, either Wesley Wright, Alberto Arias, or one of the three prospects listed above who aren't in the rotation.


I'm guessing a lot of casual fans will look at the Astros this spring and think they are serious contenders in the NL Central. The middle of their lineup and their front four starters match up fairly well with many of their rivals.  However, those who follow this blog know that I consider roster depth among the most important aspects of building a competitive team for the six-month haul.  Frankly, the Astros are just plain thin, and their several weaknesses are going to be exposes over and over again by the middle of summer, especially if they suffer even one injury among that core group.  It would only take a small amount of bad luck for the Astros to actually sink below the Pirates and finish in last place for the first time since 1991.


Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:


CF Michael Bourn (L)
2B Kaz Matsui (S)
1B Lance Berkman (S)
LF Carlos Lee (R)
RF Hunter Pence (R)
3B Pedro Feliz (R)
C J. R. Towles (R)
SS Jeff Keppinger (R)
SP Roy Oswalt (R)


SP Wandy Rodriguez (L)
SP Brett Myers (R)
SP Bud Norris (R)
SP Yorman Bazardo (R)


CL Brandon Lyon (R)
SU Matt Lindstrom (R)
SU Jeff Fulchino (R)
MR Tim Byrdak (L)
MR Alberto Arias (R)
LOOGY Wesley Wright (L)
SWING Felipe Paulino (R)


C Humberto Quintero (R)
1B/3B Geoff Blum (S)
SS Tommy Manzella (R)
OF Jason Michaels (R)
OF Jason Bourgeois (R)

The Stream (Week Seven)

[Each Sunday Hippeaux provides suggestions for spot starters for the coming week. The suggestions are based on players available for 2 Legit 2 Not Acquit, in a 10-team, H2H 5 X 5 mixed league hosted by ESPN. If these players are available there, there's a decent chance they're available in your league as well. Keep in mind that the strategy of "streaming," introducing a waiver wire starter every day of the week, is designed to help you in categories like Wins and Strikeouts, but can be disastrous for your ERA and WHIP. It is best used in H2H leagues, where a few bad choices won't haunt you all year long, and should be abandoned in weeks when your top starters make enough appearances to carry the counting categories.]

All the rainouts this past week could effect the projected rotations in the days to come, but here's how I'm forecasting:

MON: Randy Wolf (LAD) v. New York Mets (Tim Redding)

One of the Nats top prospects, Ross Detwiler, is coming up to make a spot start against the lowly Pirates, but I've definitely got more faith in Randy Wolf, even though he faces a pretty hot offense. Wolf hasn't allowed more than one earned run in each of his last four starts and he's got a 2.60 ERA at Dodger Stadium this season. Plus, while Detwiler faces somebody who's been pitching well so far this season (though I don't trust him), Ross Ohlendorf, Wolf squares off with Tim Redding in his first start coming off injury. Unless he's had a total arm transfusion, I don't think we can expect very much from Redding.

TUE: Barry Zito (SFG) @ San Diego Padres (Chris Young)

I may live to regret this, but I'm going to jump back on the bandwagon now that Zito has made five straight quality starts. It helps that San Diego's home OPS is 683, easily the worst in the NL, so even if Young outpitches Zito, I doubt he'll disastrously effect my WHIP and ERA. Shairon Martis pitches at home against Pittsburgh. That would be my #2 option.

WED: Paul Maholm (PIT) @ Washington Nationals (John Lannan)

There are several good pitchers on Wednesday, but not a lot of good matchups. Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Cecil, and Matt Harrison are all pitching well, but Way-Rod is matched up with Yovani Gallardo, Harrison gets super-hot Justin Verlander in Detroit, and Cecil is a rookie lefthander pitching at Fenway for the first time. Therefore, I'm going with Mr. Maholm against the Nats. I should point out that the Nats have a pretty good offense, comparable to the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, and Cardinals thusfar, and John Lannan has a respectable 4.00 ERA, so this is not exactly a slam dunk pick. (If he is available in your league, you might note that Chris Carpenter is coming off the D.L. against Ryan Dempster and the Cubs. It's risky, obviously, because he might be rusty and the Cubs are very hot right now, but worth noting.)

THU: Bartolo Colon (CWS) v. Minnesota Twins (Nick Blackburn)

Big Fat Bartolo Colon is having himself a respectable season so far, especially in Chicago. He's 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA at Cellular Field. He blanked the Twins for six innings the first time he faced them, though their offense has improved since then with the return of Joe Mauer and hot streaks from Kubel, Cuddyer, and Crede.

FRI: Rich Hill (BAL) @ Washington Nationals (Jordan Zimmerman)

In intraleague matchups it's usually preferable to have the AL player pitching in NL park. Although I don't know that this qualifies, since Rich Hill has made exactly one start in the AL. He looked pretty good in it, beating Kansas City, so I'm willing to take a flyer on him. (Neither is available in my league [partly because I own one of them full-time], but Rick Porcello faces off with Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. Both are young studs in the midst of hot streaks. Porcello has allowed only two earned runs in his last three starts, while Ubaldo has allowed only six earned over his last four starts. These guys are still available in many shallow leagues.)

SAT: Kyle Lohse (STL) v. Kansas City Royals (Luke Hochevar)

This is another tough one. Armando Galarraga is at home against the Rockies, but although he started the year very well, he's pitched in four straight disasters and may be in danger of losing he spot in the rotation when Jeremy Bonderman returns. I'm moderately fond of both Koji Uehara and Shairon Martis, but they match up against each other, which probably favors Uehara, but only slightly. Instead, I'm going to roll the dice on Kyle Lohse, who's had two straight disasters against strong offenses on the road, but is a solid 3-1, with a 3.20 ERA at home.

SUN: Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) v. Texas Rangers (Brandon McCarthy)

I'm tempted to go with Joel Pineiro, who, like Lohse, has been very good at home (2.46 ERA). There are arguments for both Randy Wolf, agains, and Matt Palmer (4-0, 3.38), who square off against each other in L.A., as well as for Dave Bush (2-0, 3.83) in Minnesota. But I'm going to gamble again on Wandy Rodriguez (4-2, 1.90), who probably shouldn't even be available (and may not be by Sunday). I'm hoping that his 0.67 ERA at home outweighs the fact that he will be facing one of the league's hottest teams. However, if I have a relatively safe lead on Saturday night, I don't make this start.

Swimming Upstream [How did last week's choice's fare?]

MON: Bronson Arroyo (7 IP, W, 6.43/1.43, 5 K)

TUE: Manny Parra (6 IP, W, 4.50/1.33, 8 K)

WED: Brian Bannister (5.2 IP, L, 3.18/1.06, 3 K)

THU: Wandy Rodriguez (7 IP, W, 2.57/0.71, 11 K)

FRI: Brett Cecil (6 IP, W, 4.50/1.33, 3 K)

SAT: Brett Myers (7 IP, W, 2.57/0.71, 8 K)

SUN: Koji Uehara (5 IP, ND, 7.20/1.60, 3 K)

Week 6 Totals: 5-1, 43 2/3 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 41 K

This is about as good as you get via streaming. If you were in a good position and refrained from using Uehara on Sunday, it's even better. Something tells me that Way-Rod, Cecil, Parra, and Myers may not be a part of the free agent player pool for a whole lot longer.

Three Zeros

As of the start of play on Friday, 74 pitchers had thrown 40+ major-league innings so far this season. Of them, only three had yet to allow a home run. The first probably won't surprise you. Zack Greinke has surrendered only a dozen extra-base hits (eleven doubles and one triple) in 53 innings so far. The other two have been getting far less press.

Wandy Rodriguez - Houston Astros

Way-Rod has been a popular streaming option for a couple of seasons, mainly because of his home/road splits.

'07
H: 6-3, 2.94
R: 3-10, 6.37

'08
H: 5-5, 2.99
R: 4-2, 4.34

'09
H: 2-1, 0.67
R: 2-1, 3.24

As you can see, while Wandy continues to dominate at home, his numbers on the road have also been getting progressively better. He strikes out close to a batter an inning and has improved his ground-ball ratios in each of the last three years, no doubt assisting his limitation of the long ball. Here's the bad news. Houston has a mediocre offense (last in the NL Central in run production) and a bad bullpen (5.03 ERA) and Wandy has only pitched one shutout in his career, so he's not a safe bet to win 15 games, even if he continues to pitch excellently. Wandy is also, already, 30-years-old, so for him to improve dramatically upon his 3.54 ERA from last season would be highly unusual. On the other hand...

Ubaldo Jimenez - Colorado Rockies

With the exception of his HR Allowed, Ubaldo's stats for 2009 don't look that great. However, in his last three starts he is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 5.00 K/BB rate. The latter number is important because that has always been Jimenez's Achilles heel. Since he came up during Colorado's amazing stretch drive in 2007, Jimenez is 4-10 with a 5.24 ERA in games in which he walks four or more. In his other 37 starts he is 15-10 with a 3.65 ERA. That's an especially good ERA when you consider that Ubaldo has to make half his starts at Coors Field.

More importantly, Ubaldo is still only 25, has dynamic stuff, including a fastball that touches triple digits and a classic Darryl Kile curveball. If this is evidence, as I believe it is, that Ubaldo moving towards consistent control of his arsenal, he has a much, much higher ceiling than Rodriguez, and possibly as high as Greinke.

In the end my point is this: THESE GUYS ARE STILL AVAILABLE IN MOST LEAGUES. Pick them up pronto. They have the kind of high-reward potential that is necessary to win championships.