Fantastic Thoughts: "Bill Hall is Jose Oquendo with power." (Fantasy Baseball Second Base Preview)

Although the depth at second has improved dramatically in the last few years, it is still a relatively sparse fantasy position.  Shortstop is shallower.  Catcher is by a slim margin.  And third base is close to neck-and-neck.  The sparsity of the infield "skills" positions leads fantasy owners to overpay for the guys at or near the top of the pile.  We'll routinely treat Hanley Ramirez as fantasy royalty, even though he has only one season of 30+ HR, only one season of 100+ RBI, and only two seasons batting above .301.

I, personally, rarely pay premiums at scarce positions.  So, in the middle infield I generally look for "sleepers" and value plays...as well as flexibility.

Especially in deeper leagues, when you take a moderate risk by making Aaron Hill or Neil Walker your primary second-baseman, with similar players at SS and/or 3B, you want to back them up with some low-risk options off the bench, preferably guys who play several positions.  Here's a quick look at some interesting "eligibility" guys for this coming season

Bill Hall - Houston Astros - 2B, 3B, SS, OF

Depending on what your league regulations are, Hall may have as many as four position eligibilities.  He actually played seven different positions for the Red Sox last season, including one appearance at pitcher.  More importantly, he currently looks like an everyday player for his new team.  While he's not going to do your team average any good, he should be good for 20+ homers and double-digit steals over a full season and shouldn't cost much more than $1 bid or a late round flyer.

Sean Rodriguez - Tampa Bay Rays - 2B, 3B, SS, OF

Again, you league's eligibility requirements will determine what he gets (5+ games at all the positions listed above), but he'll definitely qualify at 2B and OF.  Rodriguez is only 25-years-old, slated for pretty much full-time at-bats in a loaded lineup, and had a AAA slugging percentage of .620 in 750 plate appearances.  He's got premium power, decent speed (13 SB in '10), and shouldn't decimate your average (.298 at AAA).  Unlike Hall, he won't come free, especially in deep leagues, but might be worth chasing nonetheless.

Jed Lowrie - Boston Red Sox - 1B, 2B, SS

It wasn't that long ago that the Red Sox considered Lowrie their top prospect, ahead of guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and even Jon Lester.  In 2010, he finally showed a flicker of that promise at the major-league level.  From July 26 to the end of the season he got relatively regular playing time and hit .294 with a 936 OPS.  He closed off the year by hitting a pair of homers against the Yankees, pushing them into second place (and the Wild Card) behind the Rays.  It was a small victory, but one that surely didn't go unnoticed in Red Sox nation.  There's no clear place for Lowrie in Boston, but Marco Scutaro may be on a short leash and, of course, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia don't haven't the greatest track records for staying healthy (nor does Lowrie).  He's worth stashing in deep leagues and worth following in shallower ones.  I expect him to be a starter by August.  

Now, on to the rankings...

1. Robinson Cano, NYY
2. Chase Utley, PHI
3. Rickie Weeks, MIL
4. Ian Kinsler, TEX
5. Dan Uggla, ATL
6. Brandon Phillips, CIN
7. Dustin Pedroia, BOS

It's actually a pretty crowded field at the top of the second-base rankings.  Following an MVP-caliber 2010 season, which coincided with injury-plagued campaigns from Utley and Pedroia, Cano is the clear #1 option at the position, but don't fret if you miss out.  Utley had a excellent stretch run at the end of last year and should be primed to bounce back in 2011, at a slightly reduced price.  There's also little reason to believe Pedroia and Kinsler aren't capable of returning to form, but be aware, in terms of 5X5 fantasy production, Brandon Phillips is very nearly their equal and comes without the injury risk, having played 140+ games in each of the last five seasons.

8. Kelly Johnson, ARZ
9. Ben Zobrist, TBR
10. Aaron Hill, TOR
11. Martin Prado, ATL
12. Neil Walker, PIT

This group can be summarized by the phrase "one good year."  For Johnson, Prado, and Walker it was 2010.  For Zobrist and Hill, 2009.  All of the players from this group have surprisingly power potential, especially for the middle-infield, but otherwise their strengths vary.  Zobrist and Johnson can get you stolen bases.  Prado hits for a high average.  Walker is young enough that there may still be room for development.  Unfortunately, there's not a lot of safety here and it will probably be at least another year before we can confidently say which of them was a fluke.

13. Brian Roberts, BAL
14. Chone Figgins, SEA

Speedsters a renowned for their expeditious declines.  Roberts and Figgins, both 33-years-old, are coming off disappointing seasons which could signal that descent has begun.  On the other hand, in limited opportunity following his return from the D.L., Roberts still showed good speed (10 for 12 in SB attempts), though absent his usual power (.405 SLG).  Figgins managed to pile up the steals (42), even though his season was in nearly every other capacity the worst of his career.  Advantage goes to Roberts primarily because he'll be hitting atop a revitalized lineup, whereas Figgins plays in the offensive wasteland of Seattle.  Both are heavy in the risk department, but they should come much cheaper than they have in the past and therefore might be worth the gamble.

15. Gordon Beckham, CWS
16. Howie Kendrick, LAA
17. Mike Aviles, KCR
18. Sean Rodriguez, TBR
19. Eric Young Jr., COL
20. Danny Espinosa, WAS
21. Ryan Raburn, DET

The next class of potential breakout second-baseman is led by two highly-touted prospects who, as yet, haven't put it all together at the major-league level.  Beckham got off to a horrid start in 2010, but had two strong months in July and August (.332 AVG, 941 OPS) before his season was cut short by injury.  Rodriguez and Young won't get as much attention, because they don't offer a divers toolset, but Young has premium speed and Rodriguez premium power, so you could do worse in deep leagues.  The diamond in the rough here is Mike Aviles, who could be this year's version of Martin Prado.  In most leagues he'll be eligible at three infield positions (2B, 3B, SS) and has the ability to hit over .300 with 10-15 HR and 20+ steals, if he can hold down an everyday job.  Wilson Betemit and Mike Moustakas are waiting in the wings, so Aviles needs to get off to a hot start.

22. Orlando Hudson, SDP
23. Freddy Sanchez, SFG
24. Omar Infante, FLA
25. Juan Uribe, LAD
26. Ty Wigginton, COL
27. Bill Hall, HOU
28. Mark Ellis, OAK
29. Carlos Guillen, DET

In most league you won't want anything to do with these guys, but in deep leagues, one has to plow the depths of the middle-infield ranks.  Infante had a "breakout" season in 2010 which prompted his selection to the All-Star game, but his excellent average (.321) didn't bring much along with it (65 R, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 7 SB) and I have serious doubts there is any upside at age 29.  Wigginton, who has legit power, could benefit from his move to Colorado, except that there is no clear place for him to play.  If a Colorado infielder suffers an injury, he could jump up the list.

30. Dustin Ackley, SEA
31. Daniel Murphy, NYM
32. Luis Valbuena, CLE
33. Alexi Casilla, MIN
34. Jeff Baker, CHC

This is the deep sleeper contingent.  Seattle seems prepared to hand a full-time gig to their top prospect following his dynamite Arizona Fall League performance, but his full season totals from AA and AAA were less than thrilling (775 OPS).  I'm not convinced he's ready, but if you can get him on the cheap there is obviously tons of upside.  The Mets Daniel Murphy experiment is probably destined for failure.  It is the Mets after all.  But if Murphy does prove himself able to handle the position switch, he has the offensive talent to be a top 15 fantasy second-baseman.

Fantastic Thoughts: "O-Dog would probably sign with your fantasy team, if you're willing to give him a three-year contract." (Second Base Preview)

I've been bemoaning it for months, but I'll be damned if it doesn't continue to infuriate me that Orlando Hudson doesn't have a job, in February, for the second year in a row.  He is, nonetheless, included on my list, along with fellow unsigned free agent, Felipe Lopez.

1. Chase Utley (Phillies)
2. Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
3. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
4. Brandon Phillips (Reds)

Not long ago, the big question at second base was, "Who don't I take if I don't get Jeff Kent?"  The pickings were slim.  But in recent years, the field has gotten progressively better, led, of course, by Chase Utley, a perennial MVP candidate who should be among the top five players off the board and will cost you close to $40 in an auction.

Some will be surprised that I rank Phillips among the elite options, but I like the consistency of his across-the-board production and, at 28, I think his best season may still be in front of him.  He's been 20/20 for three years running and with more lineup protection has a legit shot at going 30/30 (as he did in '07), to go along with at least 80 R and 90 RBI.  Phillips is the picture of health, with 550+ plate appearances in each of the last four seasons.

5. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
6. Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)
7. Ben Zobrist (Rays) [also eligible at SS and OF in many leagues]

There is a very strong argument for passing on the elite guys and jumping on the second tier this season, as each of these options has the potential to perform at the elite level.  What keeps them out of the first tier is merely consistency.  Hill and Zobrist had breakout seasons in '09, but they need to prove themselves more than "one-hit wonders."  Personally, I think both are legit, as they showed consistent progression in both power and discipline throughout the minor leagues and in their first few big-league seasons.

Cano offers a slightly different quandary.  He put up the biggest season of an already impressive career in '09 directly following his atrocious '08 campaign, so many will wonder what to trust.  I think he's about to blossom into a batting champ.  Obviously, you can't complain about his situation, hitting in the middle of a loaded lineup at a ballpark built for left-handed hitters.  Cano will continue to see lots of good pitches and have plenty of run-producing opportunities.  Also, as good as his '09 was as a whole, he was even better in the second half.  In the final three months he hit .341 with a 925 OPS.

8. Brian Roberts (Orioles)
9. Dan Uggla (Marlins)
10. Ian Stewart (Rockies) [actually plays 3B, but eligible at 2B in most leagues]
11. Jose Lopez (Mariners)

These are your "category" options in roto leagues, each of whom excels at some aspect of the game, but could hurt you in others.  Roberts hit 16 HR last season, which was the second-highest total of his career, and drove in 79 runs, which was a career high.  I don't expect him to reach or exceed those totals in 2010.  However, he will once again be among the league leaders in runs scored, with excellent stolen base totals and a decent average.

The other three are inversions of Roberts.  Each has unusual power for the positions, but they are "all or nothing" kinds of hitters, who don't reach base often and don't offer much speed when they do.  Lopez will hit for a slightly higher average than Uggla or Stewart, but '09 was his first 25 HR season, where Uggla has hit 30+ for three years running.  Stewart is the high-risk/high-reward option here.  He's only 25-years-old and spent much of '09 as a platoon player, so there's plenty of room for improvement, but there's also room for a sophomore slump, as he's a free swinger with plenty of holes (see Chris Davis).  The Rockies just added Melvin Mora to their bench, suggesting that Stewart may only be one bad month from finding himself back in a platoon, and two bad months from Colorado Springs.

12. Howie Kendrick (Angels)
13. Gordon Beckham (White Sox) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]
14. Rickie Weeks (Brewers)
15. Martin Prado (Braves) [also eligible at 3B and 1B in many leagues]
16. Casey McGehee (Brewers) [also eligible at 3B in most leagues]

This tier is all about "upside."  Unless you're in a very deep league, you'd prefer that none of these guys be your first-string middle infielder, but at a utility spot, or otherwise provide depth, they offer tons of potential.  One of the great tragedies of '09 was Rickie Weeks wrist injury.  In the seasons opening weeks he looked like he was headed for the monster season that his owners have been expecting for years.  Hopefully, that breakout is just on a ten month delay.  Be cautious though.  It can take a player more than a full season to re-strengthen he wrist after a major injury (see Derrek Lee and David Ortiz), so Weeks power, the quality which makes him so tempting, may not return until 2011.

McGehee replaced Weeks in Milwaukee and his performance (.301, 16 HR, 66 RBI) helped keep the Brewers in contention much longer than if they'd turned second base over to Craig Counsell.  As such, McGehee earned a starting position going into 2010, at third base.  I doubt, however, that he will be able to keep it.  McGehee's '09 numbers look extraordinarily flukish.  He never had an average above .300 or an OPS above 800 in the minors.  Maybe he "discovered" his stroke upon being promoted, but I'd bet that he's just as likely to "lose" it again.  The Brewers top hitting prospect, Mat Gamel, will be nipping at his heels, so he probably doesn't have much leash.  By midseason, McGehee will be a utilityman.

17. Placido Polanco (Phillies) [will be eligible at 3B early in the season]
18. Orlando Hudson (Nationals?)

A couple of oldies, but goodies.  If you need a stable presence, I would actually recommend taking O-Dog or Polly ahead of some of the guys in the previous tier, because though unspectacular, each is dependable.  Oddly, I might even argue that Polance has a little upside, at the age of 34, because he'll be hitting somewhere in the middle of the loaded Phillies lineup (I'm guessing either second or seventh).  I think he's a safe bet for .300-80-10-80-5, which isn't exactly mouth-watering, but is solid production from a guy who you can get as your third or fourth infielder.

My passion for Hudson is well-documented, but I'll simply remind everybody that he was damn good in the first half of '09 (All-Star worthy, in fact) and not nearly as bad as people think in the second half.  Recent rumors have him headed to D.C., which would be a good fit for his fantasy owners, as he'd be a lock for everyday at-bats and would probably hit near the top of the order, right in front of Z-Pack and Big Donkey (Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn).

Offseason Prospectus #19: The Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have gotten an uncharacteristic flurry of national press this week (I highly recommend this article at MLB.com), thanks in large part to their surprise signing of Cuban phenom, Aroldis Chapman.  Aroldis may not be a household name, but he's gotten about as much buzz as any 21-year-old pitcher not named Stephen Strasburg.  Like Strasburg, he can throw in the triple digits, as he proved last spring during the World Baseball Classic.  Unlike Strasburg, there is very little evidence by which to predict Chapman's potential or longevity.  While scouts and even average fans got the chance to see every college start Strasburg made during his exceptional 2009 season at San Diego State, Chapman has pitched the majority of his innings behind the Iron Curtain, as Cuba used him sparingly in international play, perhaps as a way of preventing his defection...which seemed, nonetheless, inevitable.  Although he was hardly spectacular during the Classic (0-1, 5.68 ERA), buzz about him dominated coverage of the event, much as buzz about Dice-K dominated the 2006 version.

Chapman is just the latest high-ceiling Latino prospect to join the Reds pitching corps.  In 2008 Cincinnati acquired Dominican right-hander, Edinson Volquez, as part of the Josh Hamilton trade and he immediately rewarded them with a 17-win season in his rookie year.  He was joined by his countryman, Johnny Cueto, a veteran of the Reds system, who has managed solid, if not spectacular, numbers through his first two seasons (20-25, 4.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 290 K, 345 IP).  Cueto will turn 24 in February.  Volquez is 26.

Also on the horizon in Cincinnati are two more Dominicans.  Enerio del Rosario is a 24-year-old reliever who owned the minor leagues in '09, posting a 1.68 ERA in fifty appearance across three levels.  Pedro Viola is a hard-throwing left-hander who has struggled a bit in the high minors, but who the Reds still see as a potential future closer.

The Reds renewed dedication to international development seems to have had them on the verge of a breakthrough season for the last couple of years, but injuries to guys like Volquez, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Aaron Harang stymied the transition.  In 2010, the Reds again look like a promising squad on paper, but possess very few proven commodities.

Free Agents:

Jonny Gomes (29) OF
Kip Wells (32) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Jared Burton (29) RHRP
Nick Masset (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Yonder Alonso (23) 1B
Aroldis Chapman (22) LHSP
Todd Frazier (24) 2B/LF
Enerio del Rosario (24) RHRP
Pedro Viola (26) LHRP

The Reds look to me like an organization which is a bit in disarray, being pulled in different directions.  The administration of Wayne Krivsky, who preceded Walt Jocketty as GM, did a fairly good job drafting and developing, and the Reds have produced a string of solid in-house run-producers, including Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce.  On the other hand, Krivsky also hired a manager, Dusty Baker, who, though widely respected, also has a widely publicized Achilles heel when it comes to dealing with young players, often either distrusting them or, in the case of pitchers, exhausting them (the most famous example, of course, is Mark Prior).  Thus, Jocketty's main goal in his first year as GM was balancing the roster with some veteran presences that Baker could identify with, most notably Scott Rolen and Arthur Rhodes.

In his first two seasons as the Reds manager, Baker has again been accused of pushing his top starting pitcher too hard, as both Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez suffered injuries and ineffectiveness after heavy workloads.  Baker, it is apparent, will not be changing his approach after almost two decades as a big-league manager, so the front office (assuming they plan on retaining him) will need to provide him with durable veteran arms for the rotation and the bullpen, in order to protect their young investments.

Bronson Arroyo is the prototype.  Arroyo is a rubber-armed as any pitcher in baseball, having logged 200+ innings in each of the last five seasons, generally improving as the year unfolds (4.81 career ERA before the All-Star break, 3.66 after).  He's notched the Reds fifteen victories in each of the last two seasons and last year was among the most underrated pitchers in baseball.  After a typically inconsistent first six weeks, Arroyo managed a 3.11 ERA in his final 26 starts, and piled up 220 innings.  If he can find a way to hit the ground running in April, he might finally be recognized as one of the better pitchers in the National League.

Aaron Harang has been the most noticeable casualty of the Baker era in Cincinnati.  The former Ace, who won 32 games and pitched 466 innings in '06 and '07, had Dusty's mouth watering when he arrived prior to '08 and in April and May of that year Harang average 106 pitches per start.  And that's before Baker brought him out to pitch four innings of relief on two days rest!  At that moment Harang's ERA was 3.32.  Since that time, Harang has gone 10-25 with a 4.87 ERA.  He's planning on starting a support group with the other victims of Dusty Baker's overconfidence: Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, Bill Swift, John Burkett, Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz, and Carlos Zambrano.

The Reds season rides on the health of the rotation.  When Arroyo, Harang, Volquez, and Cueto are at the top of their game, they are among the better front fours in the NL, and Chapman, Homer Bailey, and Micah Owings are high-octane options at #5.  However, the risk that two or more of these guys will spend the majority of 2010 on the DL is very, very high.

Unfortunately, the Reds production on offense will also be largely a matter of health.  Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Ramon Hernandez were among the many Reds who missed time in '09, and they are the core of the lineup, along with underappreciated second-basemen, Brandon Phillips.  There is reason to believe that Votto is on the verge of becoming one of the premier hitters in the National League, as he posted a 981 OPS in 131 games in '09.  If everybody comes back healthy and the rotation can reasonably limit the damage other teams do in the Great American Smallpark, the Reds have enough thunder to keep pace with most of their NL Central opponents.

There will be some interesting Spring Training battles at Reds camp, as Cincinnati doesn't have anybody locked in at shortstop, in center, or left field.  There are several interesting candidates for the outfield.  Chris Dickerson got off to a slow start in his rookie year, but was on a bit of a role, hitting .318 in a 43 game stretch during the summer, before an injury ended his season early.  He'll be fully healthy in 2010 and is likely to get a long look as the Reds leadoff man.

His primary competition will be the man who was expected to fill that role last year.  Willy Taveras, who also spent an extended stretch on the disabled list, had the worst year of his largely mediocre career, posting an downright anorexic OPS of 559.  Taveras lives on his speed, as represented by his league-leading 68 steals in '08 and he is a quality defender, but in the last two years his OBP has been only .293 (his slugging is even lower!), indicating that until he can create more opportunities for himself, he will probably be limited to pinch-running and defensive replacement duties.

The Reds long-term outfield plans include both of the 25-year-olds who will get long looks this spring.  If Drew Stubbs proves he has the range for centerfield, he may best both Taveras and Dickerson.  Stubbs stole 46 bases at AAA in '09, then nabbed ten more in a limited audition with the Reds, also showing surprising power, with 8 HR in 180 AB.  His plate discipline is decent, as his BB/K rate improved every year in the minors, but he will have to make another moderate step at the major league level if he hopes to become a premier leadoff man.
 
Walt Jocketty landed Wladimir Belentien from the Mariners for surprisingly little (Robert Manuel, a 26-year-old relief pitching prospect).  Belentien has "light-tower power," as he displayed when he hit the longest homer of the 2009 season, and he mashed 122 HR in the minor leagues, before the age of 24 (17.4 AB/HR).  But, like many young power-hitters, he has weaknesses which have been exploited at the big-league level.  If this youngster starts getting regular at-bats and makes adjustments, he has cleanup hitter potential.

At shortstop the Reds options are not quite as promising.  Paul Janish is the prototypical good-field, no-hit kind of middle infielder that usually doesn't fly on a team that doesn't already possess spectacular offensive depth.  Adam Rosales is a fairly promising hitter, but the fact that the Reds spent much of '08 and '09 trying him at every other position on the infield suggests they don't have much faith in him as their everyday shortstop.  The same can be said of Drew Sutton, who's shown some pop (20 HR, 931 OPS at AA in '08), but is best-suited for second base, where he's currently buried behind the Reds most established player.  The 24-year-old Chris Valaika will also get an audition, as his defensive consistency improved dramatically at AAA (only 7 errors in '09, after making 24+ in each of the two previous seasons), but that corresponded to a dramatic season-long slump at the plate (his OPS dropped by 228 points).

In the end, this may be a good opportunity for Jocketty to bring in another veteran presence.  Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, and Jerry Hairston remain unsigned.  Or, as he did with Belentien, he could chase a solid prospect who has fallen out of favor with his current organization, as Jed Lowrie has in Boston and Emmanuel Burris has in San Francisco.

This is an important season for Cincinnati.  Baker's contract expires at the end of the year, as do those for Harang and Arroyo.  If the Reds can turn in their first winning season since 2000, I expect all will be brought back (though the pitchers may have to settle for smaller salaries).  If they don't, I expect none will, and the rebuilding project will begin afresh with Jocketty as sole architect.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Chris Dickerson (L)
SS Orlando Cabrera (R FA
2B Brandon Phillips (R)
1B Joey Votto (L)
RF Jay Bruce (L)
3B Scott Rolen (R)
LF Wladimir Belentien (R)
C Ramon Hernandez (R)
SP Bronson Arroyo (R)

SP Edinson Volquez (R)
SP Aaron Harang (R)
SP Johnny Cueto (R)
SP Homer Bailey (R)

CL Francisco Cordero (R)
SU Nick Masset (R)
SU Danny Herrera (L)
LOOGY Arthur Rhodes (L)
MR Jared Burton (R)
MR Enerio del Rosario (R)
SWING Micah Owings (R)

C Ryan Hanigan (R)
IF Paul Janish (R)
IF Adam Rosales (R)
OF Willy Taveras (R)
OF Drew Stubbs (R)

April showers...

Over the last couple of days in various leagues I have acquired Brandon Phillips, Chris B. Young, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.  One may assume this suggests I've been very actively seeking trades, when in fact all I've had to do is make my daily trip to the waiver wire.  These are some pretty exceptional players to find in the free agent pool and their previous owners will undoubtedly be kicking themselves a few months from now.  Although Brandon Phillips is the extremest example I've every seen, every spring I find myself staring in wonderment at the booty available to me because some sap is too impatient to wait for the inevitable warm weather hot streak from his high-round draft pick.  First and foremost, don't be that guy!!!  Secondly, even if you can't pick up one of these players for the paltry price of Mike Fontenot or Fred Lewis, you may be able to exploit a competitor's impatience via trade.  Here are a few slow-starters I would recommend targeting.

David Ortiz - DH - Boston Red Sox

There is a whole lot of hubbabaloo over at the world-wide leader about how scouts are concerned about David Ortiz.  Those of us with memories longer than six weeks, however, recall a similar stream of Big Papi pessimism last April and May.  In his first 16 games in 2008 Ortiz his .111 with one lonely long ball.  However, from mid-April until he hurt his wrist at the beginning of June, Papi hit .313 with a dozen bombs and 39 RBI in 38 games.  Throughout his career April has been Ortiz's weakest in both AVG and OPS.  Although he still hasn't gone deep in 2009, he is 5-for-12 with four extra-base hits and 4 RBI in the last three games.  The numbers are going to be there in August, which means that now is the best possible time to go get him.

Alexei Ramirez - SS - Chicago White Sox

Let's face it, winter in Cuba and winter in Chicago are very different seasons.  Last April the White Sox mysterious off-season acquisition had a laughable 354 OPS.  He took over as the starter at second on May 16.  From that point on he hit .304 with an 833 OPS.  There are probably owners out there who are prepared to declare Alexei a fluke.  The way I see it, his April OPS in 2009 is 60 points higher than in '08 and I think that's a reasonable improvement to expect in the month which follow.

Brandon Phillips - 2B - Cincinnati Reds

I've never disguised my man-crush for Phillips, so my faith shouldn't be a surprise to anybody.  One thing particularly stands out to me about his statistics so far.  He's already taken eleven walks.  In the entirety of '08 he had 39 walks, which was a career high!  When a hitter dedicates himself to working counts he often suffers a slump, but in the long run it facilitates major improvements.  As such, this slump could actually be a good sign for Phillips owners.

    

This season I've drafted no less than fifteen fantasy teams. Perhaps I will regret it, but my intention is to win every league, test the boundaries of my knowledge. I am playing in nearly every format: AL-only, NL-only, draft, auction, salary cap, H2H, 12-team, 16-team, roto, points, daily, weekly, yada-yada. As of this morning, my final draft has been completed. Here is a list of the players who appear on three or more of my rosters. These are obviously not exactly the players who I consider the finest at each position. I love Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera as much as the next guy, but they weren't always available when I wished them to be. More accurately, this list indicates which players I am ranking above the average fantasy player or analyst.

Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams

My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.

Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams

I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.

Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams

I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.

Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams

Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.

Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams

Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.

Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams

The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.

Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams

Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.

J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams

The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.

2009 Hi-Lo (Part One)

Having now completed 3 mock auctions, 4 actual auctions, and 3 drafts, I feel like I'm getting a sense of which players are being especially favored by owners this year and which are flying under the radar. Here are my overrated and underrated teams going into 2009.

Catcher:

+ Victor Martinez, Ramon Hernandez, Yadier Molina, Jeff Clement
- Matt Wieters, Geo Soto

It is safe to say the Russell Martin and Brian McCann should be the first backstops off the board and for the most part that seems to be happening. What's surprising is that V-Mart, once considered by far the best option at his position, has fallen considerably in many rankings, behind the likes of Martin, McCann, Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, and Ryan Doumit after an injury-plagued 2008 campaign. Martinez averaged 21 HR and 97 RBI in the four preceding season and I see no reason why he won't return to form, especially since he'll be seeing more time at 1B and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach. In September Martinez hit .288 with 14 RBI, even after a prolonged absence. Take him with confidence for $8-10 or in the middle rounds. Meanwhile, Geo Soto will cost as much as $15 or a pick in the first five rounds and is unlikely to perform any better than V-Mart. I like Soto, but following up on his Rookie of the Year campaign is going to be difficult. I wouldn't consider him an elite option until he proves he can do it two years in a row.

Matt Wieters is going to be a monster. Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer, but unless you're in a keeper league or you can get him for under $5 or in the late rounds, he's not worth the investment just yet. The Orioles will delay his arrival in order to keep him off the arbitration clock. Remember Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun, both of whom were held off until late May or early June for similar reasons, only got tickets to the show as early as they did because their clubs had made themselves contenders. Unless the Orioles are surprising everybody this spring (not likely), I don't see Wieters getting at-bats before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Jeff Clement will work his way into the lineup at C, 1B, or DH nearly everyday from the start of the year. He's just 25 and had a 1131 OPS at AAA in 2008.

Ramon Hernandez is a good power option (15 HR in '08) who's moving to the Great American Smallpark in Cincinnati. He's a solid late-round sleeper. Yadier Molina quietly hit above .300 last year. He's also just 25, but already has four seasons as a big-league regular. His offensive production has improved every year. These are the type of guys who come cheap and contribute at a couple of categories, which is much to be thankful for at a thin position.

First Base:

+ Justin Morneau
- Mark Texeira, Chris Davis

There aren't a lot of steals at this position. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are potentially to two most valuable players on the board and everybody knows it. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Lance Berkman aren't far behind. If any one of these fellows falls to the third round or goes for less than $25, you've gotten a heck of a deal. The same should be said of Justin Morneau, yet in two separate auctions I got him for $24. That seems strange for a guy who's a perennial MVP candidate. He's only 27 and he already has three years of at least 23 HR and 111 RBI. He may not have the upside of Howard or Fielder, but a season of .300 - 100 - 30 - 125 is a fairly safe bet.

Texeira is also a quality option, but I'm seeing him going early in the first-round and for upwards of $35 in the wake of his signing with New York. Maybe that will prove a reasonable estimation of his value, but you can have Pujols, Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, or Jose Reyes for around the same price. You be the judge.

Maybe I just arrived late on the Chris Davis bandwagon (unusual for me) and I understand that the 2008 numbers are pretty stratospheric (.305 -119-40-130-11 combined at AA/AAA/MLB), but I caution you to remember the likes of Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young. Chris Davis hasn't proven his pitch selection capability quite yet and until he does, I not willing to rank him ahead of Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, and James Loney (which is where Davis is getting drafted). Caution is warranted here.

Second Base:

+ Brandon Phillips, Orlando Hudson
- Mark DeRosa

I let others pay $30 for Dustin Pedroia (coming off career year), Chase Utley (coming off injury), and Ian Kinsler (coming off injury in a career year), I'll happily grab Brandon Phillips for around $20. He will put up quality stats in at least four categories and has the five-tool talent outperform the lot of him (see also, Alexei Ramirez, who has now moved to shortstop).

Based on my experience, Orlando Hudson is still going to be on the board in Round 25. You could do much worse with that pick, especially if you can slot him in as your third middle infielder. Between injuries the last two seasons Hudson has hit .300+ with an 800+ OPS, and that was on a team that expected him to bat in the three hole. Now he's likely to slot in between Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. As long as he's in the lineup he'll be a cheap producer in all five categories.

Mark DeRosa is coming off three consecutive seasons of improving production, capped off by a .285-103-21-87-6 year with the Cubs in '08 (kudos, Jim Hendry). Now he's 34 and heading back to the AL, to a team (Cleveland) which has a lot of young talent waiting in the wings. Don't be surprised if DeRosa loses his starting job and ends up as a veteran utility-man who only gets around 400 AB. We'll miss him in Chicago, but I'm quite skeptical.

Third Base:

+ Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman
- Evan Longoria

Maybe Longoria will equal or improve upon his rookie campaign, as Ryan Braun did last year, but I worry about the high ticket price. He's been going considerably ahead of guys like Aramis Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis, both of whom seem like safer options to me. His K/BB ratio (almost 3/1) worries me, especially since in was worst at the end of last year (20/3 in September, 20/5 in October). He still has to prove that he's capable of adjusting to the league and could be prone to some extended slumps which you are not likely to get from Ramirez or Youkilis.

Atkins is the prototype of the underrated player. He consistently lasts until the middle to late rounds, despite averaging .300-93-25-110 the last three seasons. He'll no longer benefit from the presence of Matt Holliday, but he still represents a top-quality choice at a surprisingly think position (especially now that A-Rod is questionable).

Nobody wants to touch Nationals hitters after they were among the worst in baseball last season, with no player exceeding 14 HR or 61 RBI. However, Zimmerman was limited to only 106 games in 2008 and stands to benefit the most from the addition of Adam Dunn, who will likely hit cleanup right behind him. Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Christian Guzman should be capable table-setters and, most importantly, Zimmerman will be only 24 in his fourth big-league season. He seems to be consistently available late in the draft or auction. Few players at that point have this much upside.

Shortstop:

+ Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitzki
- Derek Jeter

Remember, "intangibles" are not a fantasy category, so the fact the Jeter is going directly behind Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins is probably the most laughable aspect of this years draft. Jeter is still a solid middle-of-the-road shortstop, capable of providing you with .300-90-10-70-10, but similar guys are available late in the draft (i.e. Orlando Hudson, Orlando Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta). If you're going to pay a premium price, take a gamble on Furcal, Tulowitzki, Alexei Ramirez, or Stephen Drew, all of whom could be competing with the trio of elite shortstops in years to come. Furcal will probably be the cheapest of the group (because he is the oldest and coming off an injury-plagued season). His combination of speed, plate discipline, and a threatening lineup behind him could allow him to challenge for a batting title and he has shown consistently improving power as his career has progressed. Two years of battling injuries may lead us to forget he is still in his prime.

The Real Golden Gloves

Who are truly the best defensive players in baseball in 2007?

Catcher NL : Russell Coltrane Martin - Los Angeles Dodgers

One of the rare occasions when popularity may benefit the deserving candidate. Martin has become known as one of the game's preeminent hustlers, he is easily the best offensive catcher in the NL, and the catch he made hanging onto the netting behind home plate will be on every highlight reel for years to come. Martin is a converted infielder who hasn't been catching for two full seasons yet, at any level. As such, baserunners have not been shy of him. He has given up more stolen bases than anybody but Jason Kendall and Jorge Posada. However, teams have slowed down as the season has gone on. Coltrane's CS% is 2nd in the NL among qualifying backstops. (He'll fall to third if Yadier Molina eventually accumulates enough innings.) He's picked off four of ten would-be basestealers in August. Seizing control of the running game is one thing, seizing control of the pitching staff is significantly more important. Martin has the best Catcher's ERA in the NL, second in all of baseball, even though the Dodgers pitching staff is 5th in the NL and 7th in the MLB. He also leads all catchers in Innings and Range Fielded. I don't dispute that a healthy Yadier Molina deserves the golden mitt on his mantelpiece annually, but this is the year to give it to the man who may be his only legitimate competition for the next decade.

Runner-Up: Molina, David Ross

Catcher AL: Kenji Johjima - Seattle Mariners

Kenji has made only one error all season. He's thrown out about 38% of basestealers, 2nd in the AL. And, most amazingly, has managed a pitching staff composed of raw youngsters and veteran castoffs into playoff contention. As with Martin, his notoriety as a valuable offensive catalyst doesn't hurt. I-Rod will probably win again on his much deserved reputation, but for the first year it appears his defensive skills are fading (24.5 CS%, 5 ER).

Runner-Up: A. J. Pierzynski, Jason Varitek

First Base NL: Todd Helton - Colorado Rockies

The National League is replete with solid, even exceptional, defensive players at a weak defensive position. The recent addition of Mark Teixeira only adds to the abundance. Teixeira, Derrek Lee, and Helton have all won the award on multiple occasions. Albert Pujols won his first last year. The fact that Lee and Helton both spent significant time on the DL should not diminish the accomplishment. This year Pujols is 2nd in Zone Rating, 2nd in Range Factor, and 2nd in Assists. But Helton deserves to win his 4th. He leads the league in Zone Rating, Range Factor, Fielding Percentage, and Double Plays. Plus, he captains a young infield that includes some loose canons.

Runner-Up: Pujols, Lee, Adrian Gonzalez

First Base AL: Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox

In the AL, thanks to the loss of Teixeira, there is no first baseman with previous gold glove credentials. Guys like Lyle Overbay, Richie Sexson, and Sean Casey have solid reputations, but , amazingly, Youkilis, a converted third baseman has gone 820 innings without dropping a Mike Lowell lightning bolt or botching a tricky Fenway hop. He hasn't made a single error all season. It's hard to argue with that.

Runner-Up: Lyle Overbay

Second Base NL: Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds

I'll lead with some statistics. He's first in Total Chances (574), Putouts (245), Double Plays (89), and Fielding Percentage (.990). He's second in assists (323). He's third in Range Factor (5.10) and Innings (1003). In those latter categories, he trails by only a narrow margin. But if you watch Baseball Tonight, you don't need these statistics. Phillips makes regular appearances on Web Gems, almost Omar Vizquel-regular, and his spectacular plays are often in game-saving situations. His athleticism will make him a perennial contender for this award.

Runner-Up: Orlando Hudson, Adam Kennedy

Second Base AL: Placido Polanco - Detroit Tigers

He's not got the best range in the league, but he just set a record for second basemen for the most chances and games without making an error. As I put forth for Youkilis, that kind of consistency makes for an easy case. And, it isn't like Polanco doesn't take any risks.

Runner-Up: Mark Ellis

Third Base NL: Pedro Feliz - San Francisco Giants

Sure, my Bonds obsession means I watch a lot of Giants games. One might conclude that my daily observance has given me a bias towards Feliz. Keep in mind, claiming that Feliz deserves a gold glove is not equivalent to claiming that Feliz deserves to be the Giants everyday third baseman. The statistics show that what I have been observing of Feliz' defensive gifts is no illusion. He leads the NL in Range Factor and Zone Rating. He is only behind Aramis Ramirez and Scott Rolen in Fielding Percentage by the slimmest of margins (.002). Those who would support the ever-popular David Wright should note that he isn't near the top in any of these categories.

Runner-Up: Rolen, Ryan Zimmerman

Third Base AL: Eric Chavez - Oakland Athletics

Eric Chavez' streak of six consecutive Gold Gloves is unlikely to come to an end this year. Not because Chavez has been very good, but because nobody else has been exceptional either. This race was opened up by the injury to Joe Crede, who was playing exceptionally, despite his bad back. Don't get me wrong, I think Brandon Inge, Mike Lowell, and Chavez are all great third basemen, but they have all had mediocre years on defense after great performances in 2006. Chavez and Lowell led the league with .987 Fielding Percentages in 2006. Chavez' .975 is good enough this year. Inge led the AL with a 3.45 Range Factor in 2006. Inge, Lowell, Crede, Adrian Beltre, and Chavez were all better last year than Melvin Mora's league-leading 2.97 in '07.

Runner-Up: Inge, Lowell

Shortstop NL: Omar Vizquel - San Francisco Giants

Not much explanation is needed here. Somebody may get a chance to start their own collection soon, but Omar has made an excellent case for his twelfth Gold Glove; 1st in Fielding Percentage, 1st in Zone Rating, 4th in Range Factor.


Runner-Up: Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitski

Shortstop AL: Orlando Cabrera - Los Angeles Angels

I will start by pointing out that Derek Jeter is 12th of thirteen eligible shortstops in Zone Rating, 9th in Range Factor, and 6th in Total Chances and Fielding Percentage, despite playing more innings than any other AL Shortstop. If he wins again this year, it will be the biggest travesty yet. It should be a four-way competition. At this point it is too close to call. The sure-handed Orlando Cabrera would be my bet.

Runner-Up: Jhonny Peralta, Micheal Young, Juan Uribe

Outfield NL: Carlos Beltran - New York Mets, Andruw Jones - Atlanta Braves, Aaron Rowand - Philadelphia Phillies

Another rare instance where the voters might get it right. Playing centerfield on an NL East contender apparently demands the best. Jones is, of course, a perennial winner, and Beltran won his first last year. Rowand is getting a lot of attention thanks to his highlight reel plays and his all-star appearance. They are 1, 2, and 3 among NL centerfielders in Fielding Percentage, none of them having made more than 2 errors. They are 1, 2, and 5 among NL outfielders in Range. Rowand is tied for 2nd in outfield assists. Beltran is 2nd in Zone Rating.

Runner-Up: Shane Victorino, Jeff Franceour, Corey Hart, Alfonso Soriano, Austin Kearns, Eric Byrnes

Oufield AL: Ichiro Suzuki - Seattle Mariners, Curtis Granderson - Detroit Tigers, Gary Matthews Jr. - Los Angeles Angels

Ichiro has been downright amazing during his conversion to centerfield. He hasn't made an error all year. He has 8 outfield assists and trails only Granderson in putouts. Granderson and Ichiro should be easy choices. However, after them, Matthews Jr, Torii Hunter, David DeJesus, and Coco Crisp all deserve consideration. And that's just among centerfielders! A special notice should be made of Micheal Cuddyer and Mark Teahan who, as converted infielders, are ranked 1 and 2 in outfield assists. Teahan has led all AL Rightfielders in Range.

Runner-Up: DeJesus, Hunter, Crisp, Teahan