Cubs Optimism Is In The Air; Infecting Even Jaded Sabremetricians

On his podcast earlier this week, Jonah Keri asked Rob Neyer what was going to be the biggest surprise of the 2011 season and his answer was...the Chicago Cubs.

I'll allow a moment for the shock to subside.

His rationale is interesting.  Simply put, he expects the Cubs to get better production out of at least five or six positions.  And, he believes the addition of Matt Garza and the return of Carlos Zambrano will make up for the loss of Ted Lilly and the general uncertainty at the backend of the rotation.

Not bad points.  Here's what Rob is talking about in more detailed terms:

Cubs C '10: .257 AVG, 70 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 774 OPS (#4 in NL)
Cubs 1B '10: .254 AVG, 91 R, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 722 OPS (#14)
Cubs 2B '10: .257 AVG, 69 R, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 644 OPS (#13)
Cubs 3B '10: .262 AVG, 85 R, 25 HR, 96 RBI, 771 OPS (#7)
Cubs SS '10: .303 AVG, 78 R, 3 HR, 56 RBI, 744 OPS (#5)
Cubs LF '10: .261 AVG, 83 R, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 795 OPS (#6)
Cubs CF '10: .286 AVG, 93 R, 14 HR, 75 RBI, 770 OPS (#7)
Cubs RF '10: .250 AVG, 82 R, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 789 OPS (#8)

That's truly abysmal production.  Conventional stats aren't the greatest indicators, obviously, but it's never good when no position produces either 100 R or 100 RBI and only two positions manage an average above .265.  No position provided 30 HR.  No position managed an OPS above 800 (32 NL players had 800+ OPS in 2010, two per team).

I'm willing to take for granted that a full year of Aramis Ramirez, who was plenty productive when he got back from the DL, will give the Cubs at least one sizable upgrade.

I'm also excited to see more of Geovany Soto.  Soto was great in 2010 (890 OPS), but Lou Pinella severely limited his ABs against right-handed pitchers and his splits show why (796 OPS v. RHP, 1072 OPS v. LHP).  Still, he's a hell of a lot better than Koyie Hill, no matter which way the ball is coming from, though his '10 rates might be slightly misleading.

Beyond that, there is a lot of uncertainty.  One hopes that Starlin Castro will be even better in his first full season, but sophomore slumps are hardly unusual, especially when we're talking about a 21-year-old who played a grand total of 57 games at AA and zero at AAA.  The Cubs actually got decent production from shortstop last year, because Castro was very good in the second half and Ryan Theriot was pretty good early in the season, prior to Castro's promotion.  I certainly wouldn't guarantee an improvement in 2011.

One expects that free-agent acquisition Carlos Pena will give the Cubs some pop at first base, something they were sorely lacking in 2010.  But, Pena actually posted a 732 OPS last year, worse than Derrek Lee, to go along with his sub-Mendoza batting average.  He was reportedly nursing injuries, so I'm willing to embrace an optimistic position towards his 2011, but he's hardly a sure thing.

Alfonso Soriano is actually coming off one of his best seasons since he joined the Cubs.  He got more plate appearances than he has since 2007 and seemed more comfortable after finally being moved down in the order.  However, now 35, Soriano's 30/30 potential has all but vanished and the Cubs should probably be thankful if he merely repeats his 2010 line for a couple more years.

For Marlon Byrd, it was a tale of two seasons.  He made the All-Star team based on a first half in which he hit .317 with an 845 OPS.  After the break he hit .261 with a 682 OPS.  Is Marlon Byrd really better than a league-average hitter, which is more or less what his overall production made him in 2010?  I don't believe so.

In 2010, four replacement-level players shared second base: Theriot, Blake DeWitt, Mike Fontenot, and Jeff Baker.  This spring the Cubs are working out DeWitt, Baker, Darwin Barney (708 career OPS in the minor leagues), and a smattering of non-roster invitees, the most recognizable of which is Augie Ojeda, a 36-year-old journeyman who most recently posted a 486 OPS (not a misprint) with the D-Backs.  Seeing potential for improvement here is like betting on a coin flip.

The biggest wild card for the Cubs in 2011 has to be in right field, where Chicago is presumably prepared to go with Tyler Colvin full-time, after the rookie earned his way into the starting lineup over the course of last season.  The scouting reports are extremely mixed on Colvin.  Like Castro, he spent very little time in the high minors.  He showed great power right off the bat in the majors (20 HR, .500 SLG), but his plate discipline is very suspect (100 K in 358 AB, .316 OBP).  If Colvin matures quickly he could be Adam LaRoche or even Adam Lind, but he could also be a forgotten flash-in-the-pan by this time next year.

Of the rotation, I'm cautiously optimistic.  I'd say Garza has a really strong chance of becoming Ted Lilly upon his transition to the NL.  In three-and-a-half seasons with the Cubs, Lilly went 47-34 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.  He averaged 31 starts and 196 innings per season, providing stability, but not brilliance.  As I've said before, Garza is young enough that he may still prove himself to be more than that, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Assuming Garza makes up for the loss of Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells hold steady, and everybody stays healthy, a full year from the revitalized Zambrano, who went 8-0 with a 1.41 ERA after returning to the rotation down the stretch, should make the rotation substantially better in 2011.  And it wasn't that bad last year.

Our problem was the bullpen.  Even with a truly outstanding seasons from Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall, the Cubs bullpen ERA was the second worst in the National League.  Jim Hendry addressed this problem this offseason by rehiring Kerry Wood.  Undoubtedly, he's expecting greater contributions from youngsters like Esmalin Caridad, Andrew Cashner, and Casey Coleman as well.  Again, the best I can muster is "perhaps."

Keep in mind, Neyer did not say he expected the Cubs to win the NL Central, merely that they were capable of making a 10-12 win improvement on last season's 75-87 record.  That's not beyond the realm of possibility.  The Cubs had some seriously bad luck in 2010.  Ramirez missed time.  Zambrano melted down.  Lee fell off the table.  Byrd disappeared in the second half.  Had they been spared a few of these misfires, one could easily see them as a .500 team.

The Cardinals, a team who's lack of depth cost them dearly in 2010, failed to competently address their glaring holes this offseason, then lost their Ace in the opening week of Spring Training.  So, the perennial NL Central juggernaut is plenty vulnerable.  However, both the Brewer and the Reds are balanced, stacked franchises.  I just can't see the Cubs making a run at either of them.  Would a .500 record really be surprising?  For a team boasting a $135 Million payroll?  For some reason, I can't even summon my usual springtime sanguineness.

A few potential All-Stars who might surprise you...

There are certain to be a few first-time All-Stars this season.  Ubaldo Jimenez, who has to be the current favorite to start the game for the NL, will certainly get his first selection thanks to a couple of history-making months.  Rookie outfielder, Jason Heyward, is currently among the leading vote-getters in the NL outfield, and should be destined for selection even if he isn't voted in by the fans.  Also much-lauded is the AL co-leader in homeruns, Jose Bautista.

There are, naturally, also a few superb performers who have been largely overlooked by the media.  I offer a handful of unsung heroes who certainly won't be starters and in some cases would be borderline selections, but who definitely deserved consideration and increased publicity based on what they're doing in 2010.

Jose Valverde - RP - Detroit Tigers

Several balked at the size of the contract he received during the offseason, but thusfar he has made Dave Dombrowski look like a genius, saving 16 games in 17 opportunities, and compiling a ridiculously low 0.59 ERA through his first thirty appearances.  Those supposedly much tougher AL lineups have managed to hit just .105 off Valverde, who had spent his previous seven seasons in the National League.    He got roughed up in his second appearance of the season, but has allowed one lonely run since.  Despite being one of the best closers in baseball during the last four season, Valverde has just one previous All-Star selection, in 2007, when he led the NL in saves with 47.

Aubry Huff - 1B/OF - San Francisco Giants


Many fantasy owners gave up on Huff after a shabby April.  Since then, he has been among the top hitters in the National League, batting .342 with 9 HR, 28 RBI, and 1052 OPS in his last forty-some games.  Considering how bad the rest of the Giants have been offensively, Huff has to be given a great deal of the credit for keeping them in the thick of the NL West race.  He move to the outfield certainly helps his chance of selection, as there is a logjam at first base.


Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona Diamondbacks

I know, I know...I've beat this horse to death, but Ian Kennedy has been damn good this season, especially in the last two months.  His record is merely 3-5, largely because of very modest run support.  Kennedy's shot at selection increases because of his team.  The D-Back's top two players, Justin Upton and Dan Haren, are both having sup-par first halves, and other relatively big-name candidates, Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds, haven't been spectacular either.  Kennedy's major competition as Arizona's rep comes from resurgent hitters, Kelly Johnson and Chris Young.  His disadvantage is that so many NL starting pitchers are having strong seasons that his avenue to selection may be much more difficult than that of his position-playing teammates.

Marlon Byrd - CF - Chicago Cubs

The Cubs stink.  They stink in no small part because their biggest salaried players - Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, etc. - are all simultaneously having career-worst seasons.  Marlon Byrd, however, the 32-year-old outfielder who was supposed to regress following a breakout season in Texas, has actually gotten better...way better.  All that stands between him an his first All-Star appearance is the equally inexplicable Carlos Silva.

Rafael Furcal - SS - Los Angeles Dodgers

Furcal is very quietly having the season many expected him to have last year.  He has again missed some time, but in 167 at-bats is hiting .305 with a .354 OBP, 9 SB, and, of course, stellar defense.  He has been the Dodgers catalyst at the top of the lineup.  With Troy Tulowitzki and Jimmy Rollins lost to the NL with injuries, there's a good chance Furcal could get the nod as Han-Ram's back-up.

Chris Young - CF - Arizona Diamondbacks

Only eight major-leaguers have double-digit steals and double-digit homers at this juncture in the season.  The group includes superstars like Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Ryan Braun, and  David Wright.  It also includes Chris Young, who after two horrible seasons of regression is finally fulfilling the promise of his rookie year.  He's currently on pace for 28 HR and 28 SB, so the 30/30 potential once heralded is still very much a possibility.  Crucially, Young has cut down on his strikeout rate and raised his average.  He's on base more often and is running far more frequently than he did in the past.  He's also been especially good in RBI situations (906 OPS with men in scoring position).

The Definition of Insanity

Einstein famously mused that "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Fans of the Chicago Cubs can't help but ask, based on this justification, if the men in charge of their favored franchises haven't fallen clear off their rockers.

On the final day of 2009, Jim Hendry of the Cubs announced the signing of Marlon Byrd to a three-year, $15 Million contract. First off, I grant that figure is well shy of the $36 Million he gave Milton Bradley almost exactly a year ago, but it is nonetheless a sizable amount to pay an outfielder in his early thirties with an extensive injury history who is coming off a career year...playing at the Ballpark in Arlington, a stadium famous for offensive inflation.

Consider a few precedents...

Gary Matthews Jr.:

In 2006, at the age of 30, Matthews Jr. scored 102 runs, hit 19 HR, and posted a 866 OPS while playing for the Rangers. He had 164 more plate appearances (690) than in any other season of his career. His 2006 performance, combined with his consistent defensive prowess, led the Angels to sign him to an enormous contract (5 yr./$50 Mil). Over the first three seasons of that contract he has averaged 59 R, 10 HR, and 56 RBI, with an OPS of 708. His plate appearances have declined in every season, to just 360 in '09 and he is now considered nothing more than a very expensive fourth outfielder.

David Dellucci:

In 2005, at the age of 31, Delluci slammed 29 HR for the Rangers, 12 more than in any other season of his career. That season he also posted career highs in plate appearances (518), runs (97), hits (109), RBI (65), and walks (76), as well as an 879 OPS, prompting the Indians to sign him to a three-year, $11.5 Million deal. In two full seasons with the Tribe, he managed only 514 at-bats and a 700 OPS, 15 HR, and 66 runs scored.

Kevin Mench:

Mench posted two straight seasons of 25 HR and 70 RBI with the Rangers in '04 and '05, prompting the Brewers to demand that he be a key component in the trade that netted the Rangers Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz. With the Rangers, Mench had been good for a long ball about once every 23 at-bats. With the Brewers that rate doubled, and he managed just nine more homers in '07 and '08, before dropping out of baseball entirely.

Milton Bradley:

And then, of course, there is Milton Bradley. Sure, Bradley showed a lot more promise throughout his career before his stop in Texas than most of these jokers, but 2008 was nonetheless a serious anomaly. Bradly, at the age of 30, posted career highs in runs (78), HR (22), RBI (77), walks (80), batting average (.321), on-base percentage (.436), and slugging percentage (.563). Hopefully, Jim Hendry can remember what happened next. Upon arriving in Chicago, despite making almost exactly as many trips to the plate (473 compared to 509 in Texas), his OPS dropped by more than 200 points, from 999 to 775.

Perhaps the Cubs front office is really convinced that the reason for the drastic drop in production demonstrated by these examples is not the exit from the friendly confines of Arlington, but rather the separation from Rudy Jaramillo, the former Ranger hitting coach they recently acquired. Don't drink that Kool-Aid. Here is the rank of Rangers Ballpark in Arlington for Home Run and Run Production the last two seasons:

2008 - #1 in R, #5 in HR

2009 - #7 in R, #3 in HR

Now Wrigley Field isn't exactly a pitcher's paradise, but...

The thing that angers me most about this signing is that the Cubs are pretending that this solves the "centerfield problem" which has been plaguing the club for at least the last decade (some would probably argue that the Cubs have had a centerfield problem ever since they traded Rick Monday to the Dodgers prior to the '77 season). Marlon Byrd ain't no goddamn centerfielder. Yes, over the course of his career, Marlon Byrd has played more innings in center than anywhere else, but his teams have been constantly trying to change that. The Rangers put him out there last year in desperation, because Josh Hamilton was injured and Byrd was the next best option (at least until Julio Borbon came along). Marlon Byrd has never posted a range factor anywhere near the league average. In 2009, out of the twenty centerfielders who played as many innings as he did, Byrd finished 12th in range and 15th in UZR at -6.0. FanGraphs rated his arm as the worst among AL centerfielders.

While the rest of baseball is prioritizing defense, the Cubs have a left-fielder in center, a second-baseman at shortstop, and the adventurous Alfonso Soriano in left. Hendry has added another lengthy contract which simultaneously makes the team older, slower, and more right-handed. What a mess.