BBA Ballot: AL Connie Mack Award

Announcements of the second-annual BBA awards will begin later this week with the Connie Mack Award for managerial excellence.  Here's an explanation of my ballot for the American League:

American League:

Honorable Mentions: Ron Gardenhire (Twins), Ozzie Guillen (White Sox), & Joe Maddon (Rays)

Gardenhire is likely to get a lot of support this season, and much of it is deserved, but I would be remiss if I didn't point out that he was coaching the defending champion in the AL Central, a relatively weak division, and his front office blessed him with a 50% spike in payroll and brought in reinforcements like Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes for his depleted bullpen at the deadline.  Gardenhire did a pretty good job compensating for his team's defensive deficiencies and he got a lot out of his starting rotation, but I'm not sure the Twins dramatically exceeded expectations, which is arguably the best way of judging a manager.

Minnesota's rival, the White Sox, who stayed in the hunt until September, were probably a bigger surprise, as they were a losing team in 2009.  Guillen, as controversial as ever, might've won this award running away if he'd been able to mount a pennant-winning charge in the final month.  Even so, the Sox improved by nine wins, the third-biggest improvement in the AL, despite the fact that the roster had very little turnover.  I believe that Ozzie and GM Kenny Williams deserve at least a modest shout-out for that accomplishment.

It's hard to leave the winningest manager in the AL off my ballot, and I do believe Joe Maddon deserves a great deal of credit for the success the Rays have had the last three seasons.  He made some very deft moves this year.  As always, he managed his bullpen as efficiently and effectively as anybody in either league.  He was patient with his young pitchers and they rewarded him in spades.  He mixed and matched at four positions in order to keep everybody on his deep, talented bench involved.  The Rays played great defense, they got clutch hits (until recently), they held leads, and their starters pitched deep into games.  Impressive work, Joe.  It is, however, one of the most talent-laden rosters in recent memory and they went the entire season without a critical injury, so he had a pretty nice template to work from.  It would've been hard to manage this team out of the postseason.  So Maddon falls just a hair short of my ballot.

Third Place: Terry Francona (Red Sox)

Gardenhire's supporters will frequently cite the losses of closer, Joe Nathan, and All-Star first-baseman, Justin Morneau, but the Twins were the picture of health compared with Boston.  The Red Sox, who finished with just five fewer wins than Minnesota, in a significantly tougher division, suffered significant injuries to Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Josh Beckett, and Mike Cameron, yet they were still within striking distance of a playoff berth with less than a week remaining.  Francona got way more than anyone could've expected out of replacement-level journeymen like Darnell McDonald, Bill Hall, and Daniel Nava.  He continued to cobble together innings from an aging, overworked bullpen.  And he gingerly nursed the egos of his stars and they struggled with prolonged slumps, flukes, bad breaks, misdiagnoses, position battles, and quarrels, both on and off the field.  The Red Sox missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006, but one could easily argue that this was among Francona's most masterly performances.

Second Place: Cito Gaston (Blue Jays)

Last offseason, Toronto said a tearful goodbye to quite possible the greatest player in their franchise's history (only Carlos Delgado has a competitive claim), Roy Halladay.  They also gave away their most talented (and overpaid) hitter, Alex Rios.  Their two best hitters from 2009, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill, began the season mired in horrible slumps and finished with a combined drop of more than 400 pts. in OPS.  Yet, somehow, despite everything working against them, the Blue Jays improved their record by ten wins in 2010.  With no Halladay, what passed for an elder statesman on Toronto's staff was 28-year-old Shaun Marcum, who hadn't pitched in a single game during 2009, yet somehow four young Jays reached double-digit wins, and combined for a .627 winning percentage.

Gaston's much-maligned free-swinging approach helped Jose Bautista, John Buck, Fred Lewis, and Alex Gonzalez achieve career years, and former superstar Vernon Wells turned in his best season since 2006.  When the season began, this team was expected to be overwhelmed by the stiff competition of the AL East, but not only did they finish with a winning record, miles ahead of the Orioles, but they managed go 10-10 against the playoff-bound Yankees and Rays.  If you include Texas and Minnesota, Toronto was actually 23-16 against the best teams in the American League.  Gaston deserves at least some of the credit for this highly unexpected turnaround and his successor is going to have a very tough act to follow.

First Place: Ron Washington (Rangers)

Yes, I'm partial to Washington and the 2010 Rangers.  That's well-established by now.  However, the case for Washington goes well beyond his extremely high Narrative Likability Factor, buoyed in part by the adversity which marred the Rangers Spring Training and forced him into answering silly questions about cocaine.

The Rangers were not a charmed franchise this year, despite the fact that they turned in their best performance in over a decade.  For one thing, the fragile trio of Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler remained fragile (Hamilton made 116 starts, Cruz 101, Kinsler 102).  Likewise, Rich Harden and Scott Feldman, who entered the season #1 and #2 in the rotation, made a combined total of 40 starts, compiled a record of 12-16, and an ERA upwards of 5.50.  Texas also spent a significant portion of the season without incumbent closer Frank Francisco.  There was an ongoing clusterfuck at three different positions, as highly-touted youngsters Julio Borbon, Justin Smoak, Chris Davis, and Max Ramirez were all busts.  As a result, Texas ranked near the bottom of the league in OPS from catcher (28th), first base (27th), and center field (20th).  Clearly, not every move Ron Washington (and GM Jon Daniels) made worked out perfectly, but here are some crucial ones that did:

1.) Putting Elvis Andrus in the leadoff spot and leaving him there, even after Kinsler returned.  Andrus struggled a bit with a hamstring injury down the stretch, depressing his numbers, but his excellent first half (.361 OBP, 23 SB) helped Texas take control of the division.

2.) Putting Neftali Feliz in the closer role and leaving him there, even after Francisco returned.  Feliz notably set a rookie record for saves, with 40, threw 70 innings, and was among the most dominant closers in the AL (2.73 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 0.88 WHIP).

3.) Putting Alexi Ogando in the bullpen and leaving him there.  Ogando, another rookie, had not even thrown a pitch in A-ball prior to this season.  But the Rangers rushed him through the organization and Washington had the confidence to make him a late-inning reliever almost from the moment he reached the bigs.  In 44 innings, all coming after June 15, Ogando compiled a ridiculously low 1.30 ERA.

4.) Putting Tommy Hunter in the rotation and leaving him there.  With Harden, Feldman, Derrek Holland, and others clamoring for starts in the second half, the 23-year-old Hunter was not the favorite of many in the Dallas media.  But the Hoosier responded with eight straight wins in June and July.  He finished the season 13-4 with a 3.73 ERA and will take the ball in Game 4 of the ALDS.

As you can see, Washington never made the easy decision by going with the status quo or a mediocre veteran over ayoung player.  He had the audacity to go against the conventional wisdom, even though many local sportswriters were calling for his head even before the season began.  Even on the hot seat, Washington was always the picture of calm and never threw one of his players under the bus.  And, now, largely due to his example, the Rangers are a win away from their first ever ALCS (knock on wood).

The Spring Training Position Battle EVERYBODY'S Talking About: Blue Jays Catcher

I don't have to tell you that when Toronto announced the signing of Jose Molina this afternoon, the shockwaves reverberated around the world.  It was a press conference the baseball media had been anticipating for days and marked the resolution of a free agent storyline that had dominated the headlines of months.  What may especially surprise you is that the man known primarily as "the middle Molina," "the other Molina," or "the Molina that can't hit" may not be guaranteed a spot on Toronto's opening day roster.  The Blue Jays don't have many players with the "star power" of the former Yankee and Angels back-up, but Cito Gaston is renowned for his willingness to go with the hot hand, so Molina will have to earn his way, just like anybody else.

The Blue Jays rookie GM, Alex Anthropologist, has spent his first offseason in the typical fashion of a young administrator looking to make his mark, he's been collecting second and third string catchers.  He began on the 11th of December by signing John Buck, a product of the Kansas City farm system, that bastion of drafting and development.  Buck started each of the last five seasons as the Royals primary backstop and proceeded each time to lose at-bats to cagey veterans with household names like Paul Bako, Jason LaRue, and Miguel Olivo.  At the beginning of 2010, after nearly 600 major-league games, Buck still hasn't raised his OBP to .300

Thankfully, the Jays GM didn't stop there.  On the very next day he re-signed Raul Chavez, a 37-year-old journeyman, who in fourteen seasons has never been deemed worthy of as many as 200 major-league at-bats.  A week later, in the blockbuster trade of the offseason, when Anthopoulos sent Roy Halladay to Philadelphia, one of the prospects he got in return was a catcher named Travis d'Arnaud.  d'Arnaud hasn't advanced past A ball, but his 738 OPS at that level suggest he profiles as, well, Raul Chavez or, with a little luck, Ramon Castro.

Meanwhile, the Jays have two young, twenty-something catchers, J. P. Arencibia and Kyle Phillips, each of whom now have had considerable experience and moderate success at AAA.  There is absolutely no reason to believe the combo of Arencibia and Phillips would be any worse, at least offensively, than Buck and Molina, or Buck and Castro.  Even if they were, getting them experience in the big leagues during a season in which Toronto must be considered a rebuilding franchise, seems a worthwhile proposition...seem, in fact, very much like the definition of "rebuilding."  Even if Anthopoulos and Gaston have reservations about going with two rookie catchers, I still can't understand why they need THREE hopeless veterans.  What a nightmare the past year has been for Blue Jays fans.

Why the Jays are this year's Rays...

This can't be for real, right? It is just a matter of time until they fall back to fourth place, where they belong, right? Maybe the best fourth place team in baseball, but fourth place nonetheless. Nobody predicted this, right? Wrong.

If you check my column from March, "The Raging Jays," you'll find that I've been on the Blue Jays bandwagon for quite some time. In fact, last year I predicted that they would finish ahead of the Yankees (although I didn't figure that would still mean third place, behind the Rays). And I see no reason to second-guess myself now. In fact, it is quite possible that there is nowhere to go but up. After all, Toronto's AL-best record has been achieved without a single win from Jesse Litsch or David Purcey (the #2 and #3 starters going into the season). It was managed despite the fact that B. J. Ryan blew a pair of saves and couldn't find 90 MPH on the radar gun before he went to the D.L. and despite the fact that the team's best hitter, Alex Rios, has started the year hitting .248 with a 670 OPS.

Sure it may be fair to suggest that it is unlikely that Aaron Hill (.376, 5 HR, 989) and Adam Lind (.320, 5 HR, 957) will maintain their current paces. And 29-year-old rookie Scott Richmond (3-0, 2.70) isn't going to go undefeated. The Jays will suffer some cold streaks and they will be battling for a playoff spot down to the very end. But that's my point, they aren't going away. Yesterday they brought up Robert Ray and Brett Cecil to replace Purcey and Brian Burres, who had combined to go 0-4 with an 8.44 ERA in seven starts. Cecil hasn't exactly been gangbusters so far this season, but last year he went 8-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 129 K in 118 IP at three minor-league levels. He's only 22 and undoubtedly one of the top pitching prospects around. Ray is a little older (25) and not as dominant (132 K in 167 IP in 2008), but still a legitimate candidate for the back-end of a big-league rotation. It is reasonable to expect that they will be improvements on the pitchers they replace. Later this month Litsch, Ryan, and Ricky Romero will return from the D.L., further bolstering the pitching corps. Around the same time Shaun Marcum will begin a minor-league rehab assignment, putting him on course to rejoin the team in the second half. Marcum may not immediately be the pitcher he was before Tommy John (9-7, 3.39, 1.16 WHIP in '08), but he gives the Jays an additional option at the back-end of the rotation or in the middle innings. Similarly, Dustin McGowan, another major contributor in the staff that was best in baseball last season, could be ready to pitch sometime late in the year. It looked like a rag-tag bunch going into the year, now there appears to be some depth, although more injuries and/or setbacks could still be prohibitive.

Depth is of course essential to any team attempting to survive in the toughest division in baseball. Boston and Tampa Bay would not have made it to the postseason last year if it hadn't been for contribution by guys like Jed Lowrie, Willy Aybar, Justin Masterson, and Eric Hinske, all of whom stepped up and played well when major contributors missed time. The Jays bench will need to do the same and early indications are that they can. Kevin Millar has hit .350 in limited ABs. Jose Bautista is a hot prospect who never lived up to his billing in Pittsburgh, but could play 2B, 3B, or OF and hits for decent power. Right now he is hitting .310. John McDonald is, of course, one of the flashiest defenders around, more that an adequate replacement for Aaron Hill or Marco Scutaro defensively, which is critical.

Remember, the Rays were among the top defensive teams in baseball last year, led by great gloves up the middle. The Jays, currently leading the AL in Fielding Percentage, are similarly constructed. Rios (#2), Hill (#7), McDonald (#10), Rod Barajas (#4), and Scott Rolen (#5) are all rated as top ten fielders at their position according to John Dewan's FIELDING BIBLE, and Scutaro, Vernon Wells, and Lyle Overbay are just shy of being premier defenders as well. Only Travis Snider, well hidden in left field, can truly be considered a butcher.

Besides Cecil and Snider, their are a couple prospects to look out for later in the season. J. P. Arencibia is currently catching at AAA. In two stops last year the 23-year-old first-rounder out of Tennessee hit 27 HR with an 850 OPS. He could see time if Barajas struggles, or even at DH if Lind or Snider were to go down. Toronto's first-round pick from last year, David Cooper, also showed considerably skills in his half-season debut, hitting .333 with a 901 OPS. If he can continue at close to that clip at AA, he could make his debut in the second half.

Perhaps most importantly, after years of suffering under the ineptitude of John Gibbons, who was blessed with arguably better teams, the Jays have turned the reigns over to Cito Gaston, who has quite clearly improved the hitting approach throughout the lineup and has shown belief in his talented young players. First place is a familiar position for Gaston, who guided the Jays to their back-to-back championships in the early 90s. Like Joe Maddon of the Rays, he has captivated the entire clubhouse and has the Jays focusing on factors they can control and not thinking about the Yankees and Red Sox. That said, a major test comes in the middle of May when Toronto plays nine straight against the Yanks, Red Sox, and White Sox, arguably the three best clubs in the AL.

(Look, an entire column about the Jays and I didn't even mention Doc Halladay, who, in case you haven't heard, is the best pitcher in baseball.)