21st Century Cys (2011 Edition)

Last season about this time, in response to "out of nowhere" Cy Young award-winners like Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee, I offered a method for identifying the next set of pitchers who could climb suddenly to the elite Ace status.  You can read the original for more on my rationale, but the basic premise is to identify pitchers who haven't garnered Cy Young attention in previous seasons, but are in their mid-twenties, have at one time or another been considered blue-chip prospects, and are coming off respectable, but not dominant, seasons.  This was the 2010 class:

Chad Billingsley - Los Angeles Dodgers (25-years-old in '10, 1st-Rnd. Pick in '03)
12-11, 3.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 171 K, 192 IP, 4.6 WAR (+1.4), '10 All-Star

John Danks - Chicago White Sox (25, 1st-Rnd. '03)
15-11, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 162 K, 213 IP, 4.3 WAR (+1.4)

Yovani Gallardo - Milwaukee Brewers (24, Baseball America #16 Prospect in '07)
14-7, 3.84 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 200 K, 185 IP, 4.6 WAR (+1.9)

Edwin Jackson - Chicago White Sox (26, BA #4 '04)
10-12, 4.47 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 181 K, 209 IP, 3.8 WAR (+0.3), No-Hitter

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies (25, Entered League at 22)
19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP, 6.3 WAR (+0.6), '10 All-Star Starter, #3 NL Cy Young Voting, #23 NL MVP Voting, No-Hitter

John Lannan, Washington Nationals (25, Entered League at 22)
8-8, 4.65 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 71 K, 143 IP, 1.2 WAR (-0.3)

Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (27, Entered League at 23)
14-9, 4.51 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 147 K, 158 IP, 2.5 WAR (-1.8)

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels (27, 1st-Rnd. '04)
13-12, 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 233 K, 224 IP, 5.9 WAR (+2.0)

As you can see, although none won the Cy Young award (both leagues chose a player who was a perennial favorite), two pitchers, Jimenez and Weaver, were legitimate contenders, six of our eight pitchers improved upon their '09 campaigns (according to WAR), and five of the eight set career highs in WAR.  In total, the "21st Century Cy" class of 2010 combined for a 5.5 win improvement.  The only two backtrackers, Lannan and Nolasco, were derailed mainly by early season slumps.  After a month-long demotion, Lannan actually bounced back to go 6-3 with a 3.42 ERA in the second half.   Nolasco had his season ended early, but not before he put together a solid sixteen start stretch in which he went 10-5 with a 4.05 ERA and 9.7 K/9.

I used the "21st Century Cy" designation as part of my BLOGZKRIEG! draft stategy, landing Jimenez, Weaver, Gallardo, Danks, Jackson, and Lannan, and they were a big part of my eventual championship. Was this merely good fortune?  Well, there's only one way to find out.  Using the same formula as last season, I've identified a new class of "21st Century Cys."  It's signficantly larger than the 2010 class, indicating the dearth of good young pitching in the major leagues right now.  Three players from last season's class - Billingsley, Danks, and Gallardo - still qualify based upon all my criteria, but I won't bother profiling them again.  Here are the other candidates:

Cubs Optimism Is In The Air; Infecting Even Jaded Sabremetricians

On his podcast earlier this week, Jonah Keri asked Rob Neyer what was going to be the biggest surprise of the 2011 season and his answer was...the Chicago Cubs.

I'll allow a moment for the shock to subside.

His rationale is interesting.  Simply put, he expects the Cubs to get better production out of at least five or six positions.  And, he believes the addition of Matt Garza and the return of Carlos Zambrano will make up for the loss of Ted Lilly and the general uncertainty at the backend of the rotation.

Not bad points.  Here's what Rob is talking about in more detailed terms:

Cubs C '10: .257 AVG, 70 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 774 OPS (#4 in NL)
Cubs 1B '10: .254 AVG, 91 R, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 722 OPS (#14)
Cubs 2B '10: .257 AVG, 69 R, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 644 OPS (#13)
Cubs 3B '10: .262 AVG, 85 R, 25 HR, 96 RBI, 771 OPS (#7)
Cubs SS '10: .303 AVG, 78 R, 3 HR, 56 RBI, 744 OPS (#5)
Cubs LF '10: .261 AVG, 83 R, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 795 OPS (#6)
Cubs CF '10: .286 AVG, 93 R, 14 HR, 75 RBI, 770 OPS (#7)
Cubs RF '10: .250 AVG, 82 R, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 789 OPS (#8)

That's truly abysmal production.  Conventional stats aren't the greatest indicators, obviously, but it's never good when no position produces either 100 R or 100 RBI and only two positions manage an average above .265.  No position provided 30 HR.  No position managed an OPS above 800 (32 NL players had 800+ OPS in 2010, two per team).

I'm willing to take for granted that a full year of Aramis Ramirez, who was plenty productive when he got back from the DL, will give the Cubs at least one sizable upgrade.

I'm also excited to see more of Geovany Soto.  Soto was great in 2010 (890 OPS), but Lou Pinella severely limited his ABs against right-handed pitchers and his splits show why (796 OPS v. RHP, 1072 OPS v. LHP).  Still, he's a hell of a lot better than Koyie Hill, no matter which way the ball is coming from, though his '10 rates might be slightly misleading.

Beyond that, there is a lot of uncertainty.  One hopes that Starlin Castro will be even better in his first full season, but sophomore slumps are hardly unusual, especially when we're talking about a 21-year-old who played a grand total of 57 games at AA and zero at AAA.  The Cubs actually got decent production from shortstop last year, because Castro was very good in the second half and Ryan Theriot was pretty good early in the season, prior to Castro's promotion.  I certainly wouldn't guarantee an improvement in 2011.

One expects that free-agent acquisition Carlos Pena will give the Cubs some pop at first base, something they were sorely lacking in 2010.  But, Pena actually posted a 732 OPS last year, worse than Derrek Lee, to go along with his sub-Mendoza batting average.  He was reportedly nursing injuries, so I'm willing to embrace an optimistic position towards his 2011, but he's hardly a sure thing.

Alfonso Soriano is actually coming off one of his best seasons since he joined the Cubs.  He got more plate appearances than he has since 2007 and seemed more comfortable after finally being moved down in the order.  However, now 35, Soriano's 30/30 potential has all but vanished and the Cubs should probably be thankful if he merely repeats his 2010 line for a couple more years.

For Marlon Byrd, it was a tale of two seasons.  He made the All-Star team based on a first half in which he hit .317 with an 845 OPS.  After the break he hit .261 with a 682 OPS.  Is Marlon Byrd really better than a league-average hitter, which is more or less what his overall production made him in 2010?  I don't believe so.

In 2010, four replacement-level players shared second base: Theriot, Blake DeWitt, Mike Fontenot, and Jeff Baker.  This spring the Cubs are working out DeWitt, Baker, Darwin Barney (708 career OPS in the minor leagues), and a smattering of non-roster invitees, the most recognizable of which is Augie Ojeda, a 36-year-old journeyman who most recently posted a 486 OPS (not a misprint) with the D-Backs.  Seeing potential for improvement here is like betting on a coin flip.

The biggest wild card for the Cubs in 2011 has to be in right field, where Chicago is presumably prepared to go with Tyler Colvin full-time, after the rookie earned his way into the starting lineup over the course of last season.  The scouting reports are extremely mixed on Colvin.  Like Castro, he spent very little time in the high minors.  He showed great power right off the bat in the majors (20 HR, .500 SLG), but his plate discipline is very suspect (100 K in 358 AB, .316 OBP).  If Colvin matures quickly he could be Adam LaRoche or even Adam Lind, but he could also be a forgotten flash-in-the-pan by this time next year.

Of the rotation, I'm cautiously optimistic.  I'd say Garza has a really strong chance of becoming Ted Lilly upon his transition to the NL.  In three-and-a-half seasons with the Cubs, Lilly went 47-34 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.  He averaged 31 starts and 196 innings per season, providing stability, but not brilliance.  As I've said before, Garza is young enough that he may still prove himself to be more than that, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Assuming Garza makes up for the loss of Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells hold steady, and everybody stays healthy, a full year from the revitalized Zambrano, who went 8-0 with a 1.41 ERA after returning to the rotation down the stretch, should make the rotation substantially better in 2011.  And it wasn't that bad last year.

Our problem was the bullpen.  Even with a truly outstanding seasons from Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall, the Cubs bullpen ERA was the second worst in the National League.  Jim Hendry addressed this problem this offseason by rehiring Kerry Wood.  Undoubtedly, he's expecting greater contributions from youngsters like Esmalin Caridad, Andrew Cashner, and Casey Coleman as well.  Again, the best I can muster is "perhaps."

Keep in mind, Neyer did not say he expected the Cubs to win the NL Central, merely that they were capable of making a 10-12 win improvement on last season's 75-87 record.  That's not beyond the realm of possibility.  The Cubs had some seriously bad luck in 2010.  Ramirez missed time.  Zambrano melted down.  Lee fell off the table.  Byrd disappeared in the second half.  Had they been spared a few of these misfires, one could easily see them as a .500 team.

The Cardinals, a team who's lack of depth cost them dearly in 2010, failed to competently address their glaring holes this offseason, then lost their Ace in the opening week of Spring Training.  So, the perennial NL Central juggernaut is plenty vulnerable.  However, both the Brewer and the Reds are balanced, stacked franchises.  I just can't see the Cubs making a run at either of them.  Would a .500 record really be surprising?  For a team boasting a $135 Million payroll?  For some reason, I can't even summon my usual springtime sanguineness.

Fantastic Thoughts: The Year After The Year Of The Pitcher

It's almost upon us.  The first round of fantasy baseball magazines will start hitting the shelves next week.  In anticipation, I want to analyze some fantasy-relevant players who have changed franchises this offseason.  There are still a few outstanding free agents.  Rafael Soriano and Billy Wagner (assuming he returns) are likely worth owning, assuming they land closing jobs.  Carl Pavano has been a solid contributer in recent seasons.  Veteran power-hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome will provoke a little interest at the tail-end of standard league drafts.  If they find a favorable situations, I might be tempted to take a flyer on Jeremy Bonderman, Jeff Francis, or Justin Duchscherer...in deep leagues.  For the most part, however, the fantasy-relevant players have found there new homes.  Let begin with those pitchers who have moved to friendlier confines:

Zack Greinke - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

I've already commended the Greinke trade.  The only downside to in, in my opinion, is that it put the 2009 Cy Young winner back on the fantasy radar.  Greinke wasn't bad in 2010, but those who expected him to be a fantasy Ace were severely disappointed by his 10-14 record and his 4.17 ERA.  It became clear late in the year that Greinke was sick of playing in meaningless games and getting atrocious run support.  Had he remained in Kansas City, I think few owners would've been interested in him prior to the middle rounds.  The move to Milwaukee, however, to a clubhouse with great chemistry and a real opportunity to contend, should be invigorating.  Not only that, but the move to the NL will almost certainly result in an ERA well under 3.50 and strikeout totals greater than 200.  He isn't going to sneak up on anybody now.  You'll have to pay for that production.

Javier Vazquez - SP - Florida Marlins

Vazquez, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season of his career and a very public humiliation at the hands of the New York media.  He will attempt to rebuild his market with the Marlins.  With the exception of Javy's ever-advancing age (he will be 35 in 2011), almost everything about his new situation is advantageous.  He moves to a pitcher's park in a pitcher's league.  It's a low-pressure environment, pitching at the back end of the rotation on one of the league's least popular teams.  The Marlins have a solid offense.  And, perhaps most importantly, the last time Vazquez played in the NL East he posted a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting.  I don't necessarily expect him to do that again, but solid contributions across the board are very possible, especially when you consider he will probably be completely ignored in most standard drafts.

Jake Westbrook - SP - St. Louis Cardinals

Westbrook isn't technically changing teams, but if you weren't paying close attention at the end of last season, you may not have noticed that the 33-year-old sinkerballer posted a 3.48 ERA in a dozen starts with the Redbirds.  Dave Duncan is famous for turning middling veterans like Westbrook into All-Stars, so this is an extremely likable flyer.

Shaun Marcum - SP - Milwaukee Brewers

Marcum followed up an under-the-radar season in 2010 by being involved in an under-the-radar trade to Milwaukee.  Like Matt Garza, he's leaving the AL East and he couldn't be happier.  In 2010, Marcum was 1-6 against Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay.  He went 12-2 against everybody else.  At 29, with three full seasons under his belt, now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and pitching in the National League, Marcum has all the makings of a breakout candidate.

Matt Garza - SP - Chicago Cubs

I like Garza.  I like the fact that he'll be 27-years-old in 2011.  I like the fact that he's moving away from the AL East.  I really like the fact that he's got a rubber arm.  However, I'm concerned about his falling strikeout rate.  I'm concerned about his propensity for giving up homers.  And, most of all, I'm concerned that he'll be pitching for one of the most accursed franchise in baseball.  Garza should contribute a boatload of innings.  His ERA and WHIP should be very solid.  And, hopefully, his strikeouts will rebound.  I don't believe, however, even in the best case scenario, that he's a strong candidate for 15+ wins.  Garza is a nice pitcher, but don't make Jim Hendry's mistake by casting him as an Ace.

Aaron Harang - SP - San Diego Padres

It seems like a long time ago that Aaron Harang was considered a legitimate Ace, but he was, undeniably, one of the best and most dependable pitchers in the National League from '05 to '07.  Since then, he's gone 18-38 in three injury-plagued seasons.  In 2011, at the ripe old age of 33, he's going to try to rebuild his career in pitching's Valhalla, Petco Park.  He will follow in the footsteps of reborn starters like Jon Garland, Tim Stauffer, Woody Williams, and David Wells.  Adding to the potential redemptive flavor is the fact the Harang grew up in San Diego and pitched at San Diego State.  It might be worth betting a dollar on his homecoming.

J. J. Putz - RP - Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-Backs were 6th in the NL in save opportunities last season, but they were second in blown saves, which made for the worst save percentage (59%).  Putz is their solution and he isn't an unreasonable one.  In '06 and '07, Putz closed out 91 game for the Mariners and posted a measly 1.98 ERA.  Injuries plagued his next two seasons, but he returned to something near dominance last season as set-up man for the White Sox (7-5, 2.83 ERA, 54 IP, 65 K).  For those who hate "paying for saves," Putz is low-risk, high-reward type of option.

Here are some pitcher's who may not be completely comfortable in their new homes:

Vin Mazzaro - SP - Kansas City Royals

Mazzaro was a premier prospect who looked damn good in the second half of 2010.  He posted a 3.97 ERA from June 23rd on and, at 24 years young, might seem primed to take another sizable step forward.  Unfortunately, that step must come in Kansas City, where he won't be buoyed by one of the league's best pitching ballparks or one of the league's best defenses, as he was in Oakland.  Nor will he get to beat up on horrible offenses like those of the 2010 Mariners and Angels.  Moreover, he'll probably be expected to pitch near the front of K.C.'s young rotation.  All things considered, Mazzaro has tons of promise, but I think fantasy relevance is still a year or two away.

Cliff Lee - SP - Philadelphia Phillies

Many are on the verge of anointing Philadelphia's '11 rotation the greatest of all time and I won't deny it has that potential.  According to WAR, Lee was the best pitcher in baseball last season, despite his modest record, and we all know how dominant he was in the postseason, as well as the last time he pitched for the Phillies.  I'm a huge Lee fan, so I'm certainly not denying his potential to post another Cy Young quality season.  However, the price will be steep, and, in fantasy, postseason glory is irrelevant.  Lee will undoubtedly be among the five most expensive pitchers in fantasy, perhaps one of the top three, but, at the age of 32, he's posted only one season in which he really provided elite fantasy production.  Only twice has he topped 14 wins.  He's never had more than 185 strikeouts.  And, of course, for a premier pitcher, he's a little homer-prone.  All that said, I like Lee.  I just don't like the price.

Jon Garland - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

What Garland did last season was the definition of a mirage.  His walk rate went way up.  His K/BB rate  went way down.  He homer rate stayed in line with his career rate.  And yet, he posted a career best ERA and his lowest WHIP since 2005.  Certainly, Petco Park worked in his favor.  As did the prolonged stretch when it appeared that every bounce was going San Diego's way.  This becomes evident when you see that Jon Garland's .267 BABIP was among the lowest in baseball.  Moving to L.A. isn't necessarily a bad thing.  He'll still be in a pitcher's park and he'll have a better offense and defense surrounding him.  Still, I think the "real" Jon Garland is probaby the guy who averaged 12 W, 4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 99 K from '07 to '09, not the guy who went 14 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 136 K in 2010.

Bobby Jenks - RP - Boston Red Sox

From 2006 to 2010 only four pitchers had more saves than Bobby Jenks.  Unfortunately, it will probably be a couple years before Jenks gets a chance to reprise the role in which he had such prolonged success.  A rough conclusion to the 2010 season prompted an unsavory parting between Jenks and the White Sox.  Theo Epstein and the BoSox saw value in Jenks's over-exaggerated fall from grace.  But, for fantasy purposes, Jenks is now all but irrelevant.  Jonathan Papelbon is still toeing the mound in Boston and he's one of the four closers who outperformed Jenks since '06.  Daniel Bard is very much his heir apparent.  In very deep leagues, Jenks may still be a source for strikeouts, holds, and perhaps an occasional scavenged save in middle relief, but he's waiver wire fodder in almost every format.

Zach Duke - SP - Arizona D-Backs

Was among the most homer-happy pitchers in the NL while playing for Pittsburgh.  Moves to the most homer-happy ballpark in the NL.  Not a favorable combination.

Matt Garza is Not Your Savior, Cubs Fans. Sorry.

The Chicago Sun Times is reporting that the Cubs are close to acquiring Matt Garza from the Tampa Bay Rays.  Jordan Campbell of Cubbies Crib thinks this is a move that makes the Cubs serious contenders again in the NL Central.  I caution all Cubs fans against such enthusiasm.

Here's the good news.  Garza is a pitcher in his prime.  He'll be 27-year-old for the duration of the 2011 season and 27 is often a magical age for baseball players.  Garza is a premium talent.  He was a first-round draft pick in 2005 and several times over the course of his young career he has put together dominant stretches.  In '08 he was so good against Boston that he won the ALCS MVP.  He's been quite durable thusfar as well, pitching over 200 inning in each of the past two seasons.  He has yet to make a trip to the disabled list since he was permanently promoted by the Twins in 2007.  Though he's already eligible for some sizable awards in arbitration, he'll be under Chicago's control for three more seasons before he reaches free agency, so this is no one-year rental.  And, finally, of course, he's a pitcher from the AL East coming to the NL Central.  That move should be good for at least half a run dip in ERA and possibly even greater improvements across the board.  Last season, for instance, Garza had to make nine starts against the Red Sox and Yankees in which he went 2-3 with an ERA well over 6.00.

It hasn't yet been reported who the Cubs are giving up in order to retain Garza's services, but so long as the package doesn't include Starlin Castro, it's probably not an unreasonable bounty.  A solid starting pitcher with considerable upside who won't be a free agent until 2014 represents considerable leverage.  And I'm not opposed to this trade because it provides a potential rotational lynchpin for several seasons to come.  However, I urge Cubs fans to temper their expectation for 2011.  Matt Garza is no Zack Greinke.  And, even if he does take a long-anticipated step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation type starter, it may not be enough to surge Chicago past the other, much deeper teams in their division.

Garza is coming off a disappointing season and his overall numbers (15-10, 3.91 ERA, etc.) don't actually tell the full story.  From May 26 to September 20, a span of 21 starts, Garza posted a rather dismal 4.86 ERA.  Worse yet, for a guy whose promise is tied largely to his durability, he left 10 of those games without surviving six innings, including four straight short outings in September.  Now, Garza did conclude his season with two dominant starts, but they were against the Mariners and the Royals, arguably the two worst offenses in the American League.  More compelling for Cubs GM, Jim Hendry, is the fact that Garza pitched very well against Texas in the Division Series, though he ended up taking a hard loss.  My point is, too many Cubs fans will see his basic statline, which includes career highs in wins and innings, and think he's clearly on the verge of a becoming a true Ace.  That could be true.  Maybe his 2010 campaign will be character building, but there are also serious causes for concern.  His strikeout rate dropped dramatically (8.4 K/9 to 6.6 K/9).  He gave up a career high in homers (28), hits (193), and wild pitches (12).  According to Baseball Reference's ERA+ stat, Garza was basically a league-average pitcher in 2010 (101 ERA+, 100 is Average).  There's certainly nothing wrong with adding a league-average pitcher, especially one with Garza's potential to develop, but unless that development happens extremely rapidly, it's highly unlikely such a move can get the Cubs back into the playoff picture.

Again, none of this is meant to deny that Garza is a decent investment for the franchise long-term.  In fact, coming off his 2010 performance, Tampa Bay, a franchise committed to tightening its pursestrings in 2011, might actually be undervaluing Garza.  He just isn't a difference-making pitcher like Greinke or Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.

More importantly, although there is certainly no such thing as "too much pitching" and the Cubs did need a replacement for Ted Lilly, the Cubs real problems do not lie in their rotation.  Prior to Lilly's departure last August, Chicago's rotation was, in fact, among the best in the National League, and even after that, when the front office had thrown in the towel and were experimenting with young arms, the Cubs starters remains better than average.  Their relievers, on the other hand, posted the second worst ERA (4.72) and Winning Percentage (.357) in the National League, despite having one of the league's best closers, Carlos Marmol, and a premium set-up man, Sean Marshall.  Hendry's solution to this problem is Kerry Wood.  Is that really a solution?  Maybe, maybe not.  On offense, the Cubs had the league's worst strikeout-to-walk rate, were last in stolen bases, and were near the bottom in batting average and on-base percentage.  Replacing Derrek Lee with Carlos Pena does nothing to remedy those shortcomings.  In fact, it probably exacerbates them.

Yes, the Cubs suffered some season-changing losses in 2010, especially Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, but unfortunately, I think the acquisition of Garza represents, at best, a chance to get back to something like the 83-win team they had in '09.  Meanwhile, all the other NL Central contenders have moved forward.  Most notably, the Brewers added Greinke and bullpen depth.  The Cardinals added Jake Westbrook and Lance Berkman.  The Reds, built around young players who could still be developing (hazard the thought), retained all the important pieces of their 2010 division-winning roster.

I wish I could say differently, but for Cubs fans willing to be honest with themselves, Matt Garza represents, at best, hope for 2012.

UPDATE: The title of this post may be appropriate on a couple levels.  MLB.com, ESPN, and WGN have all alleged that negotiation between Chicago and Tampa Bay are not as close to fruition as the Sun Times suggested.

HippeauxNotes: Rays on the verge of burying Red Sox?

We're smack in the middle of a great week of baseball.  With every team playing every day this week, we've got access to 105 games in seven days.  It's also an odd week because each team will face three different competitors, thanks to the two-game sets featured from Monday through Thursday.  I can understand why the players wouldn't be thrilled by the proposition of so much travel on so little rest, but for the fans, it's a kind of baseball heaven.

This afternoon we begin the first interleague series of the season; the most interesting matchups being Boston at Philadelphia, the Yankees at the Mets, the Angels in St. Louis, and two of the hottest teams in baseball, the Dodgers and Tigers, squaring off in L.A.  It's seems as good a time as any to register some thoughts about the season so far, beginning with best team in the league.

The Tampa Bay Rays looked primed to make a major statement this week.  They pulled off a two-game sweep of the Yankees in New York and have won six straight and eight of their last nine, giving them a five-game lead heading into their weekend series in Houston.  That's the largest lead of any first-place team in baseball.  And, while the Rays are taking on the lowly Astros, the Red Sox will have to face the powerful Phillies on the road and the Yankees will "travel" to Citi Field to face the Mets, who have a 14-8 record at home this season.  The real opportunity for the Rays comes early next week, when the Red Sox come to Tampa for a three-game set.  Depending on what happens this weekend, it's very possible that a sweep could raise the Red Sox deficit to double digits, perhaps putting even the Wild Card out of reach.  ESPN2 will broadcast the series opener, which pits Wade Davis (4-3, 3.35 ERA) against Clay Buchholz (5-3, 3.26 ERA) in a battle of promising young righthanders.  The Aces take the hill in game two, as James Shields (5-1, 3.08 ERA) matches up with Jon Lester (4-2, 3.47 ERA).  And on Wednesday the quiet Cy Young candidate, Matt Garza (5-1, 2.38 ERA), looks to prolong the misery of the Red Sox big free agent acquisition, John Lackey (4-2, 4.86 ERA), who has surrendered eleven earned runs in his last thirteen innings.

Offseason Prospectus #22: The Tampa Bay Rays

Underdogs are exceedingly rare in baseball.  That is, teams that come as if from out of nowhere and make a serious run at the playoffs.  Even rarer are underdogs who get to the very brink of being champions, as the Rays did in 2008.  And rarest of all is an underdog who can duplicate such a performance from one season to the next.

It was almost inevitable that the 2009 Rays would backtrack, at least nominally.  But let me remind you that finishing in third place, with a winning record, in the AL East is no small accomplishment.  The 2009 Rays were fifth in the AL in runs scored and starter's ERA.  With 84 wins and a +49 run differential in the toughest division in baseball, one could make a strong case that the 2009 Rays were one of the top four teams in the American League (trailing the Red Sox, Yankees, and Angels).

Prognosticators have already resumed business as usual, treating the AL East as the two-horse race it has been for most of the last decade (since 1997, only once has a team other than Boston or New York won the division, and only one other time did a team other than Boston or New York finish second).  Rest assured, however, neither Terry Francona nor Joe Girardi view the Rays as underdogs any longer, and Tampa Bay is only a few good breaks away from being right back in the race for the AL pennant.