Fantastic Thoughts: Perception v. Deception in the Outfield

The first round of fantasy mags has hit the stands and mainstream sources like ESPN, CBS, etc. have started publishing their preseason rankings.  Obviously, much will change between now and Opening Day, but I'd like to highlight some relative injustices I'm seeing in my early perusal of these resources.  You can also check out my preseason rankings.

Brett Gardner, LF (Yankees) v. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF (Red Sox)

After posting a WAR of 5.4 in his first full season - that's good for 5th among AL outfielders, by the way - I don't think anybody would deny that Brett Gardner is a better all-around player than Jacoby Ellsbury.  I'll acknowledge, however, that in fantasy there are occasions when it doesn't pay to take the better player and those occasions usually do involve guys like Ellsbury who have the potential to pile up stolen bases at a league-leading clip.  This isn't one of those occasions.

Ellsbury is nearly unanimously ranked as a top twenty outfielder (top five in the AL) while Gardner barely breaks the top 50.  The Sporting News has Ellsbury valued at double the price of Gardner ($30 v. $15) in AL-only auctions.  Here's a few reason why that's ludicrous, starting with the stats for each of their best seasons:

Jacoby Ellsbury '09: .301/.355/.415 - 94 R - 8 HR - 60 RBI - 70 SB - 624 AB
Brett Gardner '10: .277/.383/.379 - 97 R - 5 HR - 47 RBI - 47 SB - 477 AB

As you can see, Gardner's OBP skills aid him in piling up runs at a significantly higher rate than Ellbury, while his HR, RBI, and SB rates are comparable (if Gardner had gotten 624 AB he was on pace for 7 HR, 62 RBI, 62 SB).

600+ ABs are not assured for either of these players, but if I had to bet on one of them reaching that mark, I'd actually take Gardner.  Coming off a year in which Ellsbury was riddled with injuries and immersed in clubhouse controversies, there is no guarantee he remains an everyday player.  Mike Cameron is still hanging around.  Darnell McDonald will be looking to steal at-bats.  And Ryan Kalish is a superior offensive talent who proved in the second-half of 2010 that he's on the verge of being major-league ready.  While many assume Gardner will again be submitted to a platoon (presumably with Andruw Jones), he actually fared okay against lefties in 2010 (725 OPS).  In all likelihood, Jones will frequently spell Curtis Granderson, Jorge Posada, or Nick Swisher instead.

What you're looking at is a pair of speedy 27-year-old outfielders, both of whom hit in loaded lineups and have the permanent green light.  I can certainly imagine Ellsbury having a solid season and returning to his '09 production, but I think Gardner is, at the very least, comparable and could be available for as little as half the price.

Hippeaux's Rankings: Gardner #29, Ellsbury #30

Curtis Granderson, CF (Yankees) v. Austin Jackson, CF (Tigers)

Remember last winter's blockbuster.  Here's how that worked out, based on 2010 WAR:

Yankees: Curtis Granderson (3.6)
Tigers: Austin Jackson (3.8), Max Scherzer (3.7), Daniel Schlereth (0.1)
D-Backs: Ian Kennedy (2.4), Daniel Hudson (2.0), Edwin Jackson (1.8)

Yes, the early returns have been much better for Arizona and Detroit, especially when you consider that the combined salaries of Scherzer, Kennedy, Hudson, and Schlereth are less than what Granderson will make in 2011.

That aside, however, it does not make any sense to rank Austin Jackson ahead of Curtis Granderson on your fantasy draft board.  Let's take a look at their second-half splits for 2010, after Grandy got healthy and the league adjusted to the Detroit rookies:

Granderson: .253/.338/.523 - 44 R - 17 HR - 43 RBI - 5 SB - 241 AB
Jackson:  .285/.336/.397 - 51 R - 3 HR - 21 RBI - 13 SB - 305 AB

Jackson posted the highest BABIP in the majors (.396) and the 5th highest strikeout rate in the AL (27.5%), both of which suggest he's a prime candidate for the dreaded sophomore slump.  Meanwhile, Granderson will hit in the midst of a thunderous lineup in a ballpark tailored for left-handed power.  Given a fully healthy 2011 campaign, he's 30 HR and 90 RBI in the bank, with the potential for more.  

Hippeaux's Rankings: Granderson #19, Jackson #52

Garrett Jones, 1B/OF (Pirates) v. Basically Anybody (Anywhere)

He's consistently making the top 60 among outfielders (the Sporting News has him as high as #40) even though he was hardly a replacement level player in 2010 (0.1 WAR).  His power (21 HR) makes him fantasy relevant, but only if he's in the lineup...and Pittsburgh seems to have realized his limitations.  They signed Lyle Overbay and Matt Diaz during the offseason and they'll bring younger, more versatile players like John Bowker, Steve Pearce, Jeff Clement, and Alex Presley to camp.  The only way Garrett Jones gets 500 AB this year is if he gets traded to the Mariners.

Meanwhile, guys like Josh Willingham, Pat Burrell, Matt Joyce, Jonny Gomes, Brad Hawpe, and Cody Ross are cheap sources of power with similar skill sets and substantially more upside.

Hippeaux's Rankings: Willingham #45, Gomes #67, Joyce #72, Ross #74, Burrell #76, Jones #90

Chris Young, CF (D-Backs) v. Drew Stubbs, CF (Reds)

Nobody knows what to do with these guys, both of whom are coming off 20/20 seasons and have real 30/30 potential, but are also batting average drains.  I've seen them both ranked as high as 12-15 and as low as 40-45.

Finally in the "post-hype" stage of his career, Young was very quietly a top 15 fantasy outfielder in 2010.  Entering his fifth full season, Young is that magical age: 27.  The age alone is certainly not enough to assure his ascendence among the elite fantasy outfielders.  However, there are other positive indicators.  He posted a career low strikeout rate in 2010, while keeping his walk rate at a decent level (11.1%), which led to a substantial improvement in OBP (.341).  Young will probably always be a free swinger and may never hit .280, but his other talents can shine so long as he maintains this level of patience.

Stubbs started the 2010 season slow and nearly lost his job, but he came on very strong after the break and was on fire for most of the last two months.  Over a 47 game stretch he hit .305 with 9 HR, 11 steals, and a 944 OPS.  I see more streakiness in Stubbs future.  It's a fairly common problem for young power hitters.  Like the young Young, Stubbs has not figured out the strikezone.  Only Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds struck out at a greater rate (32.7%) among NL hitters and they, of course, hit more homers and drew a lot more walks.

Stubbs played college ball and then spent several seasons in the minors, so he's only about a year younger than Young and shouldn't suffer as drastic growing pains (Young's development included a short return to AAA in 2009), but there will be some.

Hippeaux's Rankings: Young #14, Stubbs #28

Motown Ready For Rebound?

I've run hot and cold on the tenure of Dave Dombrowski.  I believe that the contract he gave Miguel Cabrera (8 yrs./$152 Mil.) may turn out to be one of the best and most value-driven nine-figure contracts in the game's history.  But that value has been more than offset by excessive contracts handed to Carlos Guillen, Nate Robertson, and Dontrelle Willis, among others.

I railed against the trading of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson last winter, but Austin Jackson and Max Scherzer gave Tigers fans lots to be optimistic about this season.  They're both young and inexpensive, and both showed flashes of brilliance.  Meanwhile, both Granderson and E-Jax had down years.  For now, it looks like Dombrowski bested both the Yankees and the D-Backs.  However, he turned around and made a predictably disastrous play for Johnny Damon.  Again, bad decisions offset good decisions.

Now, with Magglio Ordonez, Robertson, and Willis finally coming off the books, Dombrowski has more payroll space than he's had since the Tigers went to the World Series in 2006.  Dombrowski is one of the most active GMs every offseason, but this year he's taking it to a new level.  The Giants had barely finished their parade before the Tigers had announced half a dozen offseason moves.  Most notably, Dombrowski quickly resigned shortstop, Jhonny Peralta, and third baseman, Brandon Inge.  Then he snapped up free agent reliever, Joaquin Benoit.  And, most recently, he tabbed switch-hitting backstop, Victor Martinez.

V-Mart is easy to love.  He's one of the top five hitters at his position, possibly higher (only Joe Mauer is clearly better).  He's beloved by his teammates.  He's utterly consistent (OPS+ between 122 and 130 in every season except injury-plagued '08).  He's got a strong reputation as a game-caller and field general.  However, his age and his inability to control the running game in recent seasons suggest he is probably destined to be a first-baseman or DH by the end of this contract, at which point his production will merely be league-average for his position.

Benoit was arguably the best reliever in the American League last year.  However, $16.5 Million is a lot of money for a 33-year-old reliever who's coming off his best season, is only a year removed from a major injury, and isn't even your closer.  Dombrowski wasn't willing to go to $15 Million for Brandon Lyon last year, even though Lyon was significantly younger, had a better track record, and more closing experience.

In general, there seems to be an inconsistency of philosophy in Detroit's front office.  In '07 and '08 they spent wildly on offensive-minded players like Cabrera, Guillen, Edgar Renteria, and Gary Sheffield.  Then they reversed course and went with slick fielders like Adam Everett and Gerald Laird.  Now they've once again hired Iron Gloves at key defensive positions.  In every case, they've overpaid slightly for what they're prioritizing.  It's a hard pattern to get behind.

All this activity will promote speculation that the Tigers have moved within striking distance of the White Sox and Twins, both of whom have been utterly quiet thus far.  The division-leading Twins lost nearly their entire bullpen to free agency, as well as their winningest pitcher, their second baseman, and their beloved DH.  The Sox also lost a couple of key relievers, as well as their most productive hitter and their longtime catcher.  Plus Chicago still has question marks at third, in right, and at DH.  Until the offseason shakes out, we won't really know how much of the gap Dombrowski has closed.

That said, if he plans on making a serious run, not only at the AL Central title, but at a pennant, there is still a lot of work to be done.  The pitcher staff is very promising.  Justin Verlander, Scherzer, Rick Porcello, and Armando Galarraga comprise a youthful, high-upside rotation.  An additional innings-eater would certainly be nice, but shouldn't be Detroit's top priority.  The bullpen, led by Benoit and Jose Valverde, and supported by young power arms like Daniel Schlereth, Ryan Perry, and Joel "Cross Your Fingers" Zumaya, should also be a strength.  And V-Mart, combined with perennial MVP candidate, Cabrera, make for a legit middle-of-the-order tandem.

The rest of the regulars, however, provide cause for concern, both offensively and defensively. The Tigers outfield situation is very uncertain.  Both Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch had nice rookie campaigns, but their underlying stats suggest they are prime candidates for sophomore slumps.  Jackson's .293 average was boosted by a frankly unsustainable .396 average on balls in play.  His defense should keep him on the field, but he may struggle to be a competent tablesetter.  Boesch's production fell off the table in the second half of 2010, to an extent which suggests his hold on a starting position in 2011 is hardly guaranteed.  The other options currently at Dombrowski's disposal are no more encouraging.  Utilityman, Ryan Raburn, and September call-up, Casper Wells, both played well in limited exposure, but neither profiles as anything more than replacement level at a corner-outfield spot.

The infield defense, especially up the middle, where lead-footed veterans Carlos Guillen and Jhonny Peralta are expected to play, could be among the worst in the AL.  Inefficiency at converting outs could be dangerous for young arms like Scherzer and Porcello, not to mention frustrating for all involved.  As such, Dombrowski may be interested in a slick-fielding second-baseman like Orlando Hudson, which would allow Guillen to be the primary DH, which might help him stay healthy.  Other options could be resigning Magglio Ordonez or another, similar outfield/DH option who could come at a reasonable price.  Vladimir Guerrero, Lance Berkman, Pat Burrell, and Hideki Matsui are some free agents who might fit the profile.  Earlier in the week I also suggest Josh Willingham could be a trade target on the Tigers radar.

As busy as Dombrowski has been early in the Hot Stove season, I think he's still two or three moves away from contending with teams like the Rangers, Yankees, and Rays.

BBA Ballot: AL Willie Mays Award

Playing time was already a sizable factor when considering the differences on the NL side of ballot between Jason Heyward and Buster Posey, and between Jaime Garcia and Jhoulys Chacin.  On the AL side, it becomes an even more crucial aspect of the conversation, as only two AL rookies got enough at-bats to qualify for a batting title, and two more qualified for the ERA title.

Honorable Mention: Austin Jackson (Tigers), John Jaso (Rays), Brian Matusz (Orioles), Brennan Boesch (Tigers)

Third Place: Wade Davis (Rays)

Davis' season did not get off to a great start.  At the All-Star Break he was 5-9 with a 4.86 ERA and rumors swirled that he might soon be replaced by the Rays phenom, Jeremy Hellickson.  Whether something or someone lit a fire under him, or Davis merely adjusted after his first tour through the AL, he solidified his job in the second half by going 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.

Second Place: Danny Valencia (Twins)

Valencia didn't come to Minnesota until June, but his presence solidified a position which had been the Achilles heel for the Twins since 2005.  Valencia had the highest OPS (799) of any AL rookie who got more than 200 plate appearances.  He also led the way in batting average, by a long shot, with a .311 clip.  It is true that Austin Jackson got more than twice as many at-bats and was therefore superior to Valencia in most of the counting categories, but Jackson's extraordinary good fortune (.396 BABIP), extremely high strikeout rate (27.5%), and precipitous second-half slide (86 OPS+ in August and September) made him difficult to vote for.

First Place: Neftali Feliz (Rangers)

Andrew Bailey won the AL Rookie of the Year last season with 26 saves and a 1.84 ERA in 83 innings.  22-year-old phenom, Neftali Feliz, has not been quite as good, but on a superior ballclub, he's piled up nearly twice as many saves, setting a new rookie record with 40.  His other numbers were none too shabby either.  Feliz's triple-digit heat helped him strike out 71 in 69 innings.  His 0.88 WHIP was bested by only Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, and Joaquin Benoit among AL relievers.  It's not particularly exciting to vote for a reliever, but Feliz is a pretty special pitcher, so I feel somewhat better about it.

Offseason Prospectus #28: The Detroit Tigers

It's been an interesting offseason for Dave Dombrowski and the Tigers.  After a heartbreaking 163rd game the franchise looked destined for an overhaul.  And, that was exactly what appeared to be happening when Dombrowski traded away Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson, then allowed Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, and Fernando Rodney to walk.  The Tigers had lost the face of their franchise, their two most reliable relievers, an All-Star starter, and a Gold Glove infielder.

A funny thing happened in the last two months.  The "rebuilding" Tigers suddenly look like a team with a realistic shot of competing for the AL Central.  It's not so much what they've done - although the additions of Max Scherzer and Jose Valverde are nothing to sneeze at - as what their primary competitors have failed to do.

The Twins improved themselves offensively and defensively with the additions of J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson, but the rotation, which was their primary Achilles heel last season, remains a mystery.  If Francisco Liriano and Kevin Slowey become the frontline pitcher many expect, the division will be the Twins to lose, but that's by no means a safe bet.  Meanwhile, the White Sox have a solid rotation, but their lineup is old (Paul Konerko, A. J. Pierzynski, etc.) and inconsistent (Alex Rios, Carlos Quentin, etc.).

The Tigers are, likewise, a flawed team.  But their flaws are not significantly greater than their main competitors and their strengths are noteworthy.  They still boast what are quite possibly the division's best hitter and pitcher, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander (I haven't forgotten about the reigning MVP and Cy Young, but, honestly, these Tigers were right there with them and are, perhaps, more proven commodities).  They've still got a solid defense, although they will be hard-pressed to replace Polanco and Granderson, and they have a nice infusion of youth on both sides of the ball in the form of Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Austin Jackson, and Alex Avila.  I think the oddsmakers are right to rate Detroit third in their division, but it isn't hard to see how they might overcome.

Detroit Trades Entire Motown Catalogue; Receives Rights to Oak Ridge Boys, Jennifer Love Hewitt

I'll admit from the start, I'm having a hard time looking at this trade objectively. For the second year in a row, there is some serious coal in my stocking. Last December, C. C. Sabathia, the big, black Buddha known for his spine-shattering clubhouse embraces as much as his incredible pitching repertoire, signed a monster contract to become just another Storm Trooper on the flight deck of the Deathstar. Coming off a performance in Milwaukee that was so soulful (and so dominant) that it conjured up thoughts of "Pops" Stargell and the late '70s Pirates, it was very painful to see "Command & Control" Sabathia grinning while holding up XXL pinstripes.

Now, exactly a year later, another handsome, charismatic brother is headed to the Bronx. Since entering the majors, Curtis Granderson has been one of my favorite players. He inspires immense joy every time he chases a liner in the gap, turns a double into a triple, smacks a ankle-high fastball into the cheap seats, or melts a sideline reporter's heart with his radiant smile. But, as with Sabathia, my enjoyment of his exploits will be seriously diminished by the fact that they will henceforth assist in spreading evil across the land. I can't help but wonder whether Brian Cashman's main objective every holiday season is pissing in my egg nog.

That said, this is a very interesting trade for all the teams involved:

Detroit

IN: RHSP Max Scherzer (25), CF Austin Jackson (23), LHRP Daniel Schlereth (24), LHRP Phil Coke (27)

OUT: CF Curtis Granderson (29), RHSP Edwin Jackson (26)

Unfortunately, the guiding factor in this trade, from the Tigers perspective, is monetary. They signed Granderson to a back-loaded contract just prior to the '08 season. The last two years he cost them only $4.5 Million. Over the next four seasons he'll cost $36.75 Million. For the Yankees, that probably looks like a relative steal. For the Tigers, who desperately need payroll flexibility, Granderson's was a contract they could actually move. Although it is a self-inflicted wound, it's hard not to feel sorry for Tigers fans who are going to spend next year watching a whole flock of albatrosses. Here are some of the commitments Detroit has in 2010.

Jeremy Bonderman [$12.5 M]

Dontrelle Willis [$12 M]

Nate Robertson [$10 M]

Carlos Guillen [$13]

Magglio Ordonez [$18 M]

Brandon Inge [$6.6 M]

That's more than $70 Million going to half a dozen players, all of whom have shown dramatic decreases in production over the last two years and present serious injury risks. There's a strong possibility half of these players hardly see the field in '10. It's hard to fault Dave Dombrowski for trying to keep together and build from the core of players who helped the Tigers go to a World Series in 2006. But right now, that seems like a long time ago.

In exchange for Granderson and Jackson (who will probably earn at least $5 Million in arbitration), the Tigers get four players who will make the league minimum for at least another year, in some cases more. Every one of these players should fit into Detroit's immediate plans. Max Scherzer is one of the most promising power pitchers in the game. He struck out 174 batter in 170 innings in '09 and posted a very respectable 4.12 ERA for Arizona. His main problem was the long ball (20 HR), which may have been exacerbated by the intimate confines of his home ballpark. Detroit is a much better place for flyball pitchers. Combined with Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello, the Tiger have the makings of an excellent rotation.

Austin Jackson is never going to have the extra-base power that Granderson offers, but other aspects of his game may be comparable. He hit .300 at AAA in '09 and features very good speed and defense. He isn't going to intimidate the way Granderson could when he was streaking, but Jackson could turn into a competent leadoff hitter.

Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth are solid first steps towards fixing the bullpen depth issues which were a major Achilles Heel for the Tigers last season. With the two most talented relievers from '09, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon, hitting the free agent market, Detroit still has a long way to go, but Coke and Schlereth are very suitable for the middle innings and could develop into more. Schlereth had a miserly 1.13 ERA in the minors and struck out a whopping 13.6 batters per nine innings.

Yankees

IN: C. Granderson

OUT: A. Jackson, P. Coke, RHSP Ian Kennedy (25)

Although I obviously appreciate the quality of Granderson as much as anybody, this looks like a very strange decision to me from New York's perspective. First and foremost, the only thing the Yankees really had an excess of this offseason were promising young centerfielders. The one thing that seemed certain about the Yankees 2010 outfield, was that it would feature at least one of the trio of Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and Austin Jackson. All three of these youngsters, like Granderson, are excellent defenders, so their value is tied somewhat to their position. Cabrera and Gardner, though respectable hitters, don't offer the kind of power one would expect from Yankee corner outfielders.

My greatest fear is that this "blockbuster" is just Cashman's prequel to a deal that will net the Yankees Roy Halladay (or another big-name starting pitcher). Such a deal would undoubtedly feature Gardner, Cabrera, or both. Cabrera is younger, more experienced, has more upside, and a more complete skillset than Gardner, who is pretty much a pure slap-hitter, so Melky should be the more coveted player. However, Cabrera's switch-hitting and particularly his ability to hit left-handed pitching make him a more natural fit in the Yankees outfield/DH rotation. Granderson stuggles mightily against lefties (484 OPS in '09), so it would be nice for the Yanks to have a solid right-handed centerfielder available.

D-Backs

IN: E. Jackson, I. Kennedy

OUT: M. Scherzer, D. Schlereth

This move will draw a fair amount of criticism from scouts and fans who believe Scherzer is on the verge of becoming an legitimate Ace. The D-Backs front office, however, is clearly concerned with the violence of his delivery, and are opting instead for the reliability of Jackson, who has made 30+ starts in every season since he became a full-time starter.

The overlooked piece in the analysis of this deal is Ian Kennedy. It is easy to forget that only a couple years ago the Yankees saw Kennedy as the equal, perhaps even the better, of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, a centerpiece of their staff for years to come. Although it didn't work out that way in '08, when he posted an 8.17 ERA in nine starts and ended up having Tommy John surgery, Kennedy's potential, when healthy, remains as high as anybody involved in this trade. The Yankees have chosen to give up on him. For a team that has continually struggled to develop and maintain starting pitchers over the last decade, that may prove to be very unwise. During his minor league career, Kennedy made 43 starts and posted a miniscule 1.95 ERA with 273 K in 249 IP and a 0.99 WHIP. If Kennedy retains all his skills and Jackson merely maintains his status quo, Arizona could be the big winner in this deal.