BBA Ballot: Walter Johnson Award

It was "The Year of the Pitcher" after all, so it should come as no surprise that this was easily the most difficult ballot to construct.  Not so much at the top, since each league featured a pitcher who was at least a notch or two above the rest of the competition, but the rest of the ballot was a real struggle.  In both leagues, there were at least a dozen players who I thought well worthy of consideration, but eventually, this is what I came up with.

American League:

Honorable Mention: Justin Verlander (Tigers), Francisco Liriano (Twins), Jon Lester (Red Sox), Trevor Cahill (Athletics), C. J. Wilson (Rangers), Gio Gonzalez (Athletics), Zach Greinke (Royals), Colby Lewis (Rangers)

5. Jered Weaver (Angels)

For the first time since his career began, the Angels were not a serious contender, so Weaver's breakout season, which we've been anticipating for at least two or three years, managed to fly under the radar.  He led the league in strikeouts (233), while also managing a career low walk rate.  He piled on the innings (224) and posted an ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.07) which in many years would make him the cream of the crop.  Not so in "The Year of the Pitcher."

4. David Price (Rays)

By going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six September starts, Price nearly pitched his way to the top of the ballot.  And, although he struggled against the mighty Rangers (and, really, who hasn't) in the ALDS, Price showed confidently in 2010 that all the hype surrounding the #1 pick in the '07 draft was completely justified.  The 25-year-old southpaw will probably be back on this ballot several times in the coming seasons, particularly if he manages another sparkling ERA (2.72) like this one.  What held Price back (slightly) this season was a clear limitation on his innings (he was almost 42 innings off the league lead) and moderate struggles with control (3.4 BB/9).  Nevertheless, he won 19 games for the league's best team (at least in terms of record).

3. C. C. Sabathia (Yankees)

Yes, he's a Yankee, so his teddy-bear personality doesn't play as well with the rest of the nation as it did when he was carrying underdogs like the Indians and the Brewers.  Yes, King Felix was clearly the better pitcher this season, and likely would have won more than 21 games if he'd had the luxury of pitching in front of the C.C.'s teammates.  However, there's been a lot of over-the-top player-hating on The Big Sleep, who, besides leading the league in wins, was #2 in innings (238), #6 in strikeouts (197), #7 in ERA (3.18), and #8 in WAR (5.1).  He absolutely owned Yankee Stadium (11-2, 3.00), which C. J. Wilson discovered this past week, isn't necessarily friendly to southpaws.  At 40-15 after two years, C. C. Sabathia is putting himself in the position to be the first pitcher to ever be undervalued with a $100+ Million contract.

2. Cliff Lee (Rangers/Mariners)

This vote actually has nothing to do with his historic postseason run.  Cliff Lee was, during the 2010 regular season, according to FanGraphs, the most valuable pitcher in all of baseball, posting a 7.0 WAR, which is 0.4 better than even Roy Halladay.  I'm not sure I would take Lee's season ahead of Halladay's, or for that matter King Felix's, but what WAR does make clear is that Lee's production goes well beyond his 12-9 record.  For starters, his ridiculous 10.28 K/BB ratio is the second best in the history of the sport for a pitcher who threw at least 150 innings (Bret Saberhagen, '94 is the trivia question answer, in case you were wondering).  Moreover, with seven complete games and 17 starts where he went at least eight innings, Lee averaged over 7 2/3 innings per start, better even than Halladay.  Basically, even though his win totals were underwhelming, Lee enters free agency with a very legitimate argument that he is "the best pitcher in baseball."

1. Felix Hernandez (Mariners)

You're probably sick of the explanations, as King Felix has been a posterchild for sabermetrics since the end of August.  Yes, if Felix wins a Cy Young, he would have easily the lowest win total and the worst winning percentage of any starting pitcher in the history of the award.  But, of course, his team boasted one of the worst offenses in the history of the game.  He led the AL in innings (250) by a significant margin, and also paced the league in ERA (2.27), QS% (0.88), Opponents Average (.212), and Opponents OPS (585), while finishing one strikeout behind Weaver.  It's very hard to imagine what more King Felix could've done.

National League:

Honorable Mention: Roy Oswalt (Phillies/Astros), Josh Johnson (Marlins), Brett Myers (Astros), Yovani Gallardo (Brewers), Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Mat Latos (Padres), Matt Cain (Giants)

5. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)

Carp has been so good for so long that he frequently gets overlooked, especially now that he has a teammate putting up equally gaudy numbers, but at age 35, he's still as dominant as ever, and showed it during his 35 starts in 2010, going 16-9 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

4. Tim Lincecum (Giants)

We were spoiled by the Freak in his first two full seasons, to such an extent that his 3.43 ERA this season seems like a major backslide.  However, it is unduly influenced by his first slump, which lasted much of August.  That month aside, Lincecum still managed to be one of the best pitchers in his league, again pacing the senior circuit in strikeouts and finishing fifth in the league in WAR (5.1).  Moreover, his 5-1 record in September (with a 1.94 ERA) powered the Giants into the playoffs, for which he gains a little boost on my ballot.

3. Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies)

This was probably the hardest decision on either side of ballot.  The performances of Wainwright and Jimenez were eerily similar:

Jimenez: 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 214 K, 222 IP
Wainwright: 20-11, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 213 K, 230 IP

Wainwright clearly has slight edges in most of the basic stat categories, but I chose to give in to the popular refrain coming out of Colorado in the second half: "If you punish CarGo for hitting at Coors, you've got to reward Ubaldo for pitching there."  I think there's a great deal of truth in this and for that reason (as well as my general affinity for watching Ubaldo pitch) I gave the edge to the Rockies Ace.

1. Roy Halladay (Phillies)

Most of you are probably sick of reading my lavish praise for Doc.  If you aren't, you can certainly check out the nineteen previous posts I've made in which he's featured prominently.  For the time being, I will simple point out again that the expectations were obscenely high when he was acquired by the Phillies this offseason and he lived up to them.  No easy feat.

Sunday Showdown Situation

It would have been easy for the Phillies to play complacently this weekend.  It has certainly been the habit of the other postseason-bound franchises.  Minnesota has been giving away games since the moment they clinched.  Even the Yankees and Rays, playing for home-field advantage and a division title, have seemed uninspired of late, as though it matters little to them where or whom they play in the ALDS.  Fair enough.  

Charlie Manuel and his Phillies, however, realized, facing a three-game finale with the division rival Braves, that if they didn't attempt to put the stake in Atlanta's heart, they might very well regret it.  They were, after all, just 8-7 against the Braves entering the weekend, and Atlanta has been near unbeatable in their home ballpark all season.  If the Braves managed to clinch the Wild Card they could very easily become a "team of destiny" playing in front of retiring manager Bobby Cox and be Philadelphia's opponent in the NLCS.

Though that scenario is still possible, big wins behind Kyle Kendrick and Antonio Bastardo made it significantly less likely, as the Phils send Cole Hamels and his 2.28 ERA in the second half to the mound on Sunday looking to send Atlanta home for good.  If the Braves lose and the Padres beat the Giants, Atlanta's season will be over, as both West Coast team will advance.  If the Padres and Braves both lose, they would be on track for a one-game Wild Card playoff.

Both Atlanta and San Francisco could've made the playoff picture a lot simpler by winning a single game this weekend, but their four losses combined have opened up the possibility of not only a Game 163, as we've had in each of the last three seasons, but possibly the first ever Game 164.  If the Braves and Padres both win tomorrow, than the Giants will have to remain in San Diego to play a fourth game to decide the NL West Champion on Monday.  The loser of that game would then have to travel to Atlanta for a one-game showdown on Tuesday for the NL Wild Card.

Obviously, as a baseball fan, I'm totally psyched about this, as these "win or go home" games have proved absolutely scintillating, but such a road would probably spell doom for the teams involved, as they would be unable to set their rotation for the NLDS, which begins on Wednesday.  The Giants, for instance, would probably throw Tim Lincecum on Monday, which would rule him out for the first two games of the NLDS and limit him to just one start in that series.  On Tuesday, the Braves would likely turn to Derek Lowe, who won every one of his September starts (5-0), thus making him similarly limited in the first round, were they to advance.

All three of these teams are built on pitching.  San Francisco and Atlanta are particularly dependent on their frontline starters.  If they are unable to take advantage of that strength, they are almost a synch to get rolled over by a superior, balanced team like the Phillies or Reds.

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As a brief aside, the correlation between wins and good fortune has been fervently debated lately, thanks to the truly ridiculous fact that Felix Hernandez has only 13 victories, despite being far and away the best pitcher in the AL this season.  We can add a little fuel to that fire by pointing to the year of Ubaldo Jimenez, which ended today with eight inning of three-hit ball against the Cardinals (he left the game tied at zero).  Because Jimenez had 15 victories at the All-Star Break, yet will finish with just 19, many will conclude he scuffled in the second half, perhaps even suggest his first three months were flukish.  A closer look however shows that Jimenez has made nine quality starts in his last thirteen outings, yet has only the four victories to show for it.  On three separate occasions he went 8 innings, yet took a loss or a no decision.  His strikeout rate has actually gone up in the second half, while his homerun rate has gone down.  Jimenez may have been a little lucky before the break, but he has more than made up for it with bad luck after the break.  Don't be fooled.      

R.I.P. 2010 Rockies?

Most obituaries for the Rockies season will probably lead with the fact that coming off a 13-2 stretch which helped them climb to within a game of the division lead, they dropped three in a row to the Arizona Diamondbacks, a last place team that is playing without their best hitter (Justin Upton) and has a decimated starting rotation (having lost Brandon Webb to injury and traded away Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson).

This is certainly a logical place to begin, however, I'm going to focus instead on the stretch in mid-July, just following the All-Star Break when the Rox dropped 11 of 13.  At that time, they had also just completed a hot stretch which had moved them to within a game of first place, but they proceeded to lose four straight series, not only to good teams like the Phillies and Reds, but also to bottom-feeders like the Marlins and Pirates.  We are reminded ad nauseum this time of year that "every game counts," and the Rockies will probably be haunted by that axiom this winter as much as any team.

When they were still hanging around .500 at the end of July, we were reminded again and again of the team's propensity for late-season heroics.  And, sure enough, when September began they reeled off a ten-game winning streak.  But, alas, that wasn't enough.  What really doomed the Rockies was not the D-Backs sweep or this past weekend's tough losses in a hard-fought series with the division-leading Giants.  What doomed the Rockies were those eight blown saves they posted in April and May while they were waiting for Huston Street to come off the D.L.   Also of crucial importance were those 15 starts that got handed to Greg Smith (6.23 ERA) and Esmil Rogers (6.47 ERA) while Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa, and Jeff Francis were on the shelf.   We might also point out that losing streak in July corresponded with Troy Tulowitzki's rather serious wrist injury.

So, the Rockies, who many, including myself, favored to win the NL West this season, will not be returning to the postseason.  Still, there are some good things to take away from their 2010 campaign:

Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez may qualify as the two biggest breakout players in the National League.  CarGo threatened to make a run at the Triple Crown before Albert Pujols took a commanding lead in homers during the final month.  He'll get MVP consideration, but will likely lose some votes to his teammate, Tulowitzki, and be penalized by some voters for his drastic home/road splits.  Nevertheless, he became a star during his age 24 season and won't even be eligible for arbitration until 2012.

Jimenez, who the Rockies wisely signed to a long-term deal prior to the season, will also get considerable support during the awards voting.  Presumably, those that believe that Coors Field was too friendly to Gonzalez will be mighty impressed by Ubaldo's 9-1 record, 1.26 WHIP, and 3.23 ERA in the thin air.  He was even better on the road (10-6, 2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP).

Tulowitzki is still making a run at the all-time record for homers in the month of September.  He's currently two back of Babe Ruth and Albert Belle (17).  His spectacular hot stretch - 1070 OPS, 18 HR, 61 RBI in 54 games since returning - must be a major relief to the Colorado brass, as wrist injuries often leave hitters sapped of their power for several seasons after they are fully healed (i.e. Derrek Lee, David Ortiz).  Tulo's was mild by comparison and he is clearly no longer feeling any ill effects.

Colorado has also found a solid young starter to plug in behind Jimenez and De La Rosa.  Since being promoted to the rotation permanently at the beginning of August, Jhoulys Chacin has gone 4-2 with a 1.98 ERA in 50 IP.

This was probably the first year that Colorado fans truly expected their team to be contenders, so it can't help but be disappointing to see them falling short in September, especially to teams with considerable flaws like San Diego and Atlanta.  However, there are many competitive season left for this incarnation of the Rox.  I expect to see them playing postseason baseball again very soon.  

Set the DVR, it's Duels Week

With a third of the season in the bag, there's a lot to talk about this coming week, but I'd like to start by pointing out that there are a disproportionate number of really exciting pitching matchups slated for the first week of June, so if you're like me and you love nothing more than a pitchers duel, here's how you should set your calender for the first half of the week:

Monday, 5/31:
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) 9-1, 0.88 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 61 K, 71 1/3 IP
Tim Lincecum (Giants) 5-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 80 K, 66 IP

We kick it off with what should really be billed as "the main event," the two-time reigning NL Cy Young against his heir apparent, both pitching for teams in the thick of the NL West race.  Lincecum is in a miniature slump (11 ER, 11 BB in last two starts), but I'm willing to bet he's primed to bounce back.  Jimenez has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start!

Tuesday, 6/1:
Cole Hamels (Phillies) 5-3, 3.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 63 K, 63 2/3 IP
Tim Hudson (Braves) 5-1, 2.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27 K, 64 1/3 IP

Again we've got a pair of division rivals, this time featuring a pair of rebounding Aces.  They also happen to represent two wildly different approaches.  Hudson has quietly been among the best pitchers in the NL, despite carrying one of baseball's lowest strikeout rates (3.78 K/9).  He attacks the strike zone and has hitters pounding his sinker into the ground.  His groundball rate (67.3%) is the highest in baseball and he's tied for tops in the NL at inducing double plays.  Hamels, on the other hand, has the ninth highest strikeout rate in the NL (8.91 K/9) and is far more prone to flyball, which is part of the reason he's already allowed ten dingers this season.  Hamels is also in the midst of a serious hot streak.  In May he went 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA.

Wednesday, 6/2:
David Price (Rays) 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 50 K, 66 2/3 IP
Shaun Marcum (Jays) 5-1, 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 60 K, 73 IP

The Jays and Rays are two of the most surprising teams in the American League, due in no small part to the performance of these two young Aces.  The 28-year-old Marcum returned from a season lost to injury and has been downright dominant from the outset.  He's second in the AL in innings, fifth in ERA, third in WHIP, seventh in batting average against, and eighth in strikeouts.  The 24-year-old Price has been his equal in almost every respect.  He leads the AL in wins, is second in batting average against, ninth in WHIP, tenth in innings, and fourth in ERA.  This matchup takes on an additional interest because both teams boast powerhouse offenses, ranked #2 and #4 in scoring.

Thursday, 6/3:
Jered Weaver (Angels) 4-2, 3.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 74 K, 68 2/3 IP
Zack Greinke (Royals) 1-5, 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 52 K, 65 IP

Greinke and Weaver have more experience than Price and Marcum, but are still both in their mid-twenties.  And, to a significant extent, they are similar pitchers, both on the level of talent and approach.  They balance a terrifying arsenal of pitches with tremendous control and, as a result, both are in the top five in the American League in K/BB rate.  They are also both extreme flyball pitchers, ranking #1 and #2 in the AL in that category.

OOTP Predicts Ubaldo's No-Hitter

In the third part of my OOTP simulation series I'm looking at a lineup of players who piqued my curiousity going into the season.  My primary interest had to do with their fantasy profiles, so the stats I tracked were 5 X 5 roto categories.

I told you so... (Ubaldo Jimenez)

In what I hope will be an ongoing series of nasty, sophomoric posts, I'd like to congratulate myself for jumping on the Ubaldo Jimenez bandwagon a long, long time ago.

It's not like I was the one and only, but we Ubaldophiliacs were few and proud in the early stages of his career, as he struggled with his control and the misfortune of pitching in the Mile-High City.

Ubaldo numbered among my top sleepers heading into last season and in May of '09 I enjoined readers to "pick him up pronto" following a trio of quality starts which I cited as "evidence that Ubaldo's moving toward consistent control of his arsenal" and claimed "he has a much, much higher ceiling than Wandy Rodriguez, and possibly as high and Zack Greinke."

From that point forward, including his first three starts in 2010, Ubaldo has gone 15-8 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 8.32 K/9.

The fact that he surrendered six walks during his no-hitter has prompted some ignorant pundits (a.k.a. those PTI dimwits) to call his performance "flukish."  That's patently ridiculous, on a couple levels.  First off, baserunners are baserunners.  A 1.17 WHIP does not lie.  And, as has been widely reported, Jimenez didn't allow a walk after he went to the stretch full time in the sixth inning, which helped to keep his pitch count reasonable, so that he was still throwing 98 MPH to the last batter of the game.  Jimenez's control problems, which were notable early in his career, have all but vanished at this point.  His BB/9 in 2009 was 3.5, the same as Andy Pettitte's and well within the range of expectation for a guy with his kind of stuff.

Now that I've finished shoulder-slapping, the question is, have we seen the limits of Ubaldo's upside?  Jim Tracy is convinced that he'll be on hand for another Jimenez no-hitter before his tenure with the Rockies is over.  (Tracy is signed through 2012 and Colorado controls Jimenez until 2014.)  A couple months ago I rated him among the "21st-Century Cys," pitchers who I believe, on the model of Greinke and Cliff Lee, could unexpectedly surge to the front of their profession in 2010.  Is there a catch?

I don't believe so, but if there is, it could have to do with fatigue.  Ubaldo racked up 230 inning in '09, including the postseason, which was 31 more than he threw in '07 and '08.  That's hardly a Hamels-esque spike and if he was feeling any ill effects from the workload, it likely would've registered this spring (as it did for Hamels and Ervin Santana in '09, and Jair Jurrjens this year).  It is nonetheless something to keep an eye on, especially considering his pitch counts.  During the Clint Hurdle administration, Ubaldo was on a pretty strict 110-pitch limit.  He surpassed that total only six times in his first sixty starts with the Rockies (that 10%, by the way), and never went above 115.  Since Jim Tracy took over, Ubaldo has topped 110 pitches in 59% of his starts, and has thrown upwards of 120 on three occasions, including last week, when he threw a career-high 128 pitches.

Only four pitchers threw more total pitches in 2009.  They were Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, and C. C. Sabathia.  What that suggests to me is the class of pitchers that Ubaldo ranks among.  But, one could equally claim that he has not proven his ability to sustain that workload to the extent those other pitchers have.  In 2008, Gil Meche, Edinson Volquez, and Ervin Santana ranked among that class and weren't the same thereafter (indeed, Meche and Volquez have yet to recover).  Jimenez's doubters will need to seem him repeat (and possibly improve upon) his 2009 campaign before they're willing to rate him among the elite starters.

If the National League weren't stacked with high-end pitching talent (Doc Halladay joins perennial Cy candidates Lincecum, Carpenter, and Santana) I might be tempted to more confidently proclaim his candidacy for the trophy.  Nevertheless, I do think he will earn his Cy eventually and certainly will not be among the those "flukish" pitchers like Bud Smith, Jose Jimenez, and Eric Milton who tossed no-hitter and then faded into obscurity.

Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux's 2010 Hot List

I wrapped up my last "real" draft of the season this afternoon, but I won't simply be twiddling my thumbs until Opening Day.  Below is a comprehensive list of players who ended up on several Hippeaux teams this March.  This doesn't necessarily mean this are my "favorite" players at any position, merely that they are players who I clearly have ranked at least a notch or two higher than most of my competitors.  If a player winds up on two of my eight teams it might be merely coincidence, but three or more seems to suggest a pattern...

21st-Century Cy

Not every year does a relatively unheralded pitcher come, as though from out of nowhere, to win his profession's most prestigious award.  It has happened, however, in each of the last two seasons, and seven times in the last decade (during which, of course, twenty Cy Youngs have been awarded.)

Way back in 2002, a 24-year-old Barry Zito won 23 games in what has proved to be the best season of his career.  The season prior to it he had been very good (17-8, 3.49 ERA), but certainly not superlative, and going into '02 he was still considered the #3 starter on his own team.

In 2004, Johan Santana "arrived."  Although his arm had been gaining him notoriety for a couple years, he had spent most of his career prior to '04 in the bullpen.  That year, however, he made 34 starts, won 20 of them, and led the league in strikeouts (265) and ERA (2.61).

The very next year, a 30-year-old Chris Carpenter, after seven seasons floundering with the Blue Jays and struggling with injuries and control, suddenly became one of the best pitchers in baseball, going 21-5 with a 2.83 ERA in his second year under the tutelage of Dave Duncan in St. Louis.

There was another first-time Cy Young vote-getter in 2006, when Brandon Webb won the award with his 16 wins and 3.10 ERA.

And, most recently, as you will remember, Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke finished their somewhat unlikely ascents to the top of the American League, and Tim Lincecum won the NL version of the award in his first full season in the majors in '08.

So, who's going to be the next unexpected Cy?  Here are some criteria for making the prediction.  With the exception of Cliff Lee, none of the pitchers discussed above had placed in the Cy Young voting prior to the year they won it, but all were coming off pretty solid seasons, in which they won at least 12 games and had an ERA lower than 3.80 (Lincecum didn't get enough starts to meet this criteria in his rookie year, but in all likelihood he would've easily matched it).

Although Lee had a notoriously bad run in '06 and '07, he had previously logged three seasons with 14 or more wins and finished as high as fourth in Cy Young voting in 2005.  So, what I'm looking for primarily, is a player who won 12-15 games in '09 and posted an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 with some positive trends in his other numbers.

I'm also looking for somebody in their mid-twenties who was, at one point or another, even if it was five or six years ago, considered a top prospect.  Four of my seven Cys were first-round picks and Santana certainly would have been (he signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela).  Five won the award for the first time between the ages of 24 and 27, while Lee won it at 29 and Carpenter was 30.  With those factors in mind, here are the top candidates:

Offseason Prospectus #17: The Colorado Rockies

In the fall of 2007, the Rockies used an eleven-game winning streak and an extraordinary extra-innings win against San Diego in game 163 to surge into the postseason and eventually to the World Series. They had five players with 90 or more RBI - Matt Holliday (137), Brad Hawpe (116), Garrett Atkins (111), Troy Tulowitzki (99), and Todd Helton (91) - and looked like a team built to win for several years to come.

Unfortunately for Colorado, like so many teams who make unexpected journeys deep into October, they had trouble duplicating that success, managing only 74 wins in '08 and beginning '09 by going 18-28, a performance bad enough to lead to the firing of long-time skipper, Clint Hurdle.

To everybody's surprise, soon after Hurdle was dismissed, the Rockies regained their swagger under Jim Tracy and '09 turned out to be the best regular season in the team's history (92 W, .568). They got manhandled by the Phillies in the NLDS, but there is once again optimism among the Coors Field faithful, as the team proved it could win without Matt Holliday.

In recent years, Colorado's front office, led by Dan O'Dowd, has made a consistent commitment to drafting, developing, and retaining their own players, and keeping themselves away from big free agents who haven't proven themselves in the distinctive environs of Colorado, like the ones that hamstrung the team earlier in the decade (Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle, most famously). Of the dozen men who got 100 or more at-bats for the Rockies in 2009, only Carlos Gonzalez and Yorvit Torrealba have ever played for another organization (in Gonzalez's case, that tenure was very brief). The starting rotation is also led by two pitchers who are career Rockies: Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook.

So far this offseason, O'Dowd has stuck to his guns. The Rockies offered arbitration to set-up man, Rafael Betancourt, but have otherwise been silent. In the early months of 2010, O'Dowd may look for a part-time catcher and minor bullpen or bench reinforcements, but the Rockies remain convinced that they already have the major pieces necessary to get them back to the promise land. And, with nobody in their division getting noticeably better so far this winter, they can make a pretty convincing case for being the preseason favorite in the NL West.

Free Agents:

Garrett Atkins (30) 3B/1B [Signed w/ Orioles]

Joe Beimel (33) LHRP

Jose Contreras (38) RHRP

Adam Eaton (32) RHSP

Alan Embree (40) LHRP

Josh Fogg (33) RHRP

Jason Giambi (39) PH

Matt Herges (40) RHRP

Jason Marquis (31) RHSP [Signed w/ Nationals]

Matt Murton (28) OF

Joel Peralta (34) RHRP [Signed w/ Nationals]

Juan Rincon (31) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Clint Barmes (31) 2B

Taylor Buchholz (28) RHRP

Jorge De La Rosa (29) LHSP

Jason Hammel (27) RHSP

Chris Iannetta (27) C

Ryan Spilborghs (30) OF

Huston Street (26) RHCL

ETA 2010?:

Jhoulys Chacin (22) RHSP

Samuel Deduno (26) RHSP

Edgmer Escalona (23) RHRP

Shane Lindsay (24) RHRP

Michael McKenry (25) C

Chaz Roe (23) RHSP

Esmil Rogers (24) RHSP

Eric Young (25) 2B/CF

While I think O'Dowd is an exceptionally competent GM, I see one area in which his conservative strategy might prove dangerous. While none of the free agent arms Colorado is losing were among the best pitchers in their bullpen, Alan Embree, Josh Fogg, Joel Peralta, Juan Rincon, Jose Contreras, and Joe Beimel did combine for over 150 innings. Down the stretch Contreras was among the Rockies most dependable relievers.

Colorado does have a nice selection of quality arms coming up through the system, but they will need to depend heavily on Manny Corpas, Franklin Morales, Randy Flores, and Taylor Buchholz, all of whom struggled with either injuries or ineffectiveness in '09. I wouldn't be surprised if O'Dowd finds one more "insurance plan" among the remaining crop of free agents, perhaps an inexpensive veteran like Guillermo Mota or David Weathers, or an return engagement for Contreras or Fogg.

By not offering arbitration to Garrett Atkins, a player who was once at the center of Colorado's offensive plans, the Rockies have committed full force to Ian Stewart as their everyday third baseman. Stewart was very impressive against right-handed pitching in his first full season (20 HR, 823 OPS), but struggled mightily against southpaws (5 HR, 664 OPS). The Rockies may see this as an avenue to free up at-bats for Eric Young, who is currently without an everyday role. Or, they may still be in the market for a right-handed cornerman who can also pinch-hit, somebody like Mark Loretta or Nomar Garciaparra.

It's truly odd to say it, but going into 2010, one of Colorado's strengths is the depth of their rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez hasn't yet reached the notoriety of a Lincecum, a Greinke, or a King Felix, but he belongs among that class of pitchers, a truly dominant Ace still in his mid-twenties. Ubaldo went 15-12 in '09 with a 3.47 ERA and 198 K in 218 IP. Most importantly, he seems to have harnessed his incredibly nasty stuff, dropping his walk rate from 4.7 to 3.5 every nine innings.

Lining up behind Jimenez the Rockies have the reliable veteran, Aaron Cook, who over the last four seasons has averaged 29 starts, 11 wins, and a 4.11 ERA, and the 2009 breakout lefty, Jorge de la Rosa, who went 16-3 for Colorado from June 1st until the end of the season.

The Rockies are also anticipating the return of Jeff Francis, who was considered their ace before injuries cost him much of 2008 and all of 2009. If Francis shows anything resembling his former talent, the Rockies will possess a front four which is among the best in the National League.

The final spot will go to Jason Hammel, at least to begin the year. Hammel was very solid in '09 (10-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 177 IP), good enough to get first dibs, but he will be pressed to perform by the advancement of young guns like Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, and Chaz Roe, all of whom look ready for major-league action. O'Dowd may choose to convert one or more of them into relievers, at least temporarily, as he did with Franklin Morales.

The star of the show in Denver will always be the offense. Even as production has decreased in recent seasons, thanks to the humidifier, Coors Field still consistently ranks among the top three parks for run production. What O'Dowd has improved at over the last few years, however, is putting together lineups which are dangerous in any climate and every stadium. He's still got the hard-swinging flyball specialists like Stewart and Chris Iannetta, but they are combined with speedy slap-hitters like Dexter Fowler and Eric Young, all-fields RBI men like Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe, and, most importantly, five-tool talents like Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

Especially if Iannetta bounces back from a sub-par '09 campaign that saw him eventually lose the starting role to Torrealba, the Rockies will have a lineup that rivals the depth of those in Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Milwaukee (no lineup in the NL is as complete as Philadelphia's at the moment). And, like each of those teams, they won't be satisfied by anything less than October baseball. No reason why they should be.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Dexter Fowler (S)

LF Carlos Gonzalez (L)

1B Todd Helton (L)

SS Troy Tulowitzki (R)

RF Brad Hawpe (L)

3B Ian Stewart (L)

C Chris Iannetta (R)

2B Clint Barmes (R)

SP Ubaldo Jimenez (R)

SP Jorge de la Rosa (L)

SP Aaron Cook (R)

SP Jeff Francis (L)

SP Jason Hammel (R)

CL Huston Street (R)

SU Rafael Betancourt (R)

SU Taylor Buchholz (R)

MR Manny Corpas (R)

MR Franklin Morales (L)

LOOGY Randy Flores (L)

SWING Jhoulys Chacin (R)

C Michael McKenry (R)

IF Mark Loretta (R) FA

IF/OF Eric Young (S)

OF Seth Smith (L)

OF Ryan Spilborghs (R)

Three Zeros

As of the start of play on Friday, 74 pitchers had thrown 40+ major-league innings so far this season. Of them, only three had yet to allow a home run. The first probably won't surprise you. Zack Greinke has surrendered only a dozen extra-base hits (eleven doubles and one triple) in 53 innings so far. The other two have been getting far less press.

Wandy Rodriguez - Houston Astros

Way-Rod has been a popular streaming option for a couple of seasons, mainly because of his home/road splits.

'07
H: 6-3, 2.94
R: 3-10, 6.37

'08
H: 5-5, 2.99
R: 4-2, 4.34

'09
H: 2-1, 0.67
R: 2-1, 3.24

As you can see, while Wandy continues to dominate at home, his numbers on the road have also been getting progressively better. He strikes out close to a batter an inning and has improved his ground-ball ratios in each of the last three years, no doubt assisting his limitation of the long ball. Here's the bad news. Houston has a mediocre offense (last in the NL Central in run production) and a bad bullpen (5.03 ERA) and Wandy has only pitched one shutout in his career, so he's not a safe bet to win 15 games, even if he continues to pitch excellently. Wandy is also, already, 30-years-old, so for him to improve dramatically upon his 3.54 ERA from last season would be highly unusual. On the other hand...

Ubaldo Jimenez - Colorado Rockies

With the exception of his HR Allowed, Ubaldo's stats for 2009 don't look that great. However, in his last three starts he is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 5.00 K/BB rate. The latter number is important because that has always been Jimenez's Achilles heel. Since he came up during Colorado's amazing stretch drive in 2007, Jimenez is 4-10 with a 5.24 ERA in games in which he walks four or more. In his other 37 starts he is 15-10 with a 3.65 ERA. That's an especially good ERA when you consider that Ubaldo has to make half his starts at Coors Field.

More importantly, Ubaldo is still only 25, has dynamic stuff, including a fastball that touches triple digits and a classic Darryl Kile curveball. If this is evidence, as I believe it is, that Ubaldo moving towards consistent control of his arsenal, he has a much, much higher ceiling than Rodriguez, and possibly as high as Greinke.

In the end my point is this: THESE GUYS ARE STILL AVAILABLE IN MOST LEAGUES. Pick them up pronto. They have the kind of high-reward potential that is necessary to win championships.

Down on the Upton

As I was watching Ubaldo Jimenez mow through D-Backs today, I had the distinct displeasure of listening to a couple of homer-happy Colorado broadcasters lay into Justin Upton, who, to be fair, looked just as bad as anybody in the Arizona lineup against what may be the best stuff in the NL (98 MPH heater, 85 MPH change, nasty slider and curve). Arizona may have done a disservice in bringing Justin to the bigs at the age of 19 with the hype that he was the second-coming of Ken Griffey Jr. However, I not so sure that he isn't. One must remember that Upton is still only 21. At an age when most "top prospects" are just beginning to climb the minor league ladder, Upton is in his third major-league season. When Griffey Jr. was 20, he had an 847 OPS. Upton's OPS last season was 814. Upton showed could plate discipline in his brief minor-league career, but has not quite translated it to the big leagues. Last season he struck out 121 times in just over 400 plate appearances. But he was also dealing with injuries, and he still hit 15 HR and had a respectable .353 OBP (that was third-highest among D-Back regulars, by the way). We're going to see some slumps still and I'm not sure he's ready to match the 100 RBI and 926 OPS Junior Griffey put up in his "junior" season, but Upton is very much on the verge of his breakout campaign. He may benefit from Eric Byrnes, Conor Jackson, Tony Clark, and Chad Tracy cutting into his playing time because it encourages Bob Melvin to give him occasional days off, especially against tough righthanders. Look for Upton to hit around .275 this year, with a .375 OBP, 20+ HR, and an OPS around 850. That's pretty good for a guy bought his first beer less than eight months ago.