Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux 2011 "Sleeper" Team

As you may have noticed, things have been a little busy in the land of Hippeaux.  I apologize for the fact that, at the time of year when many are itching for preseason predictions and analysis, I've been busy with my day job.  Over the weekend, I'll get out the "ouija board" and continue my series on Tout Wars.  I will obviously have an unfair advantage in my predictions, having already watched a game or two of Milwaukee v. Cincinnati.  In the meantime, here's a lineup of guys I'm "touting" for breakout campaigns in 2011.  I know it's belated, but there are still plenty of drafts on the horizon.

Russell Martin - C - New York Yankees

What's new, right?  Martin's always been among my favorites and it's going to pain me dearly to see him in pinstripes, but as a fantasy owner, this is a dream come true.  For one thing, Martin's popularity has absolutely tanked.  After his first three seasons, when Martin was averaging 14 HR and 16 SB a year, we probably got a little giddy, ranking him alongside the McCann's and V-Mart's of the world.  Now, coming off two seasons in which he was dogged by injuries, buried in a mediocre lineup, and discouraged by an unsupportive organization, he's been more or less forgotten (he's the 17th most popular catcher in ESPN standard leagues).  The argument for Martin goes like this:

1.) He's a high energy player and excellent defender who Joe Girardi is going to fall in love with.  So long as his hip is fully healthy, I think he's a synch to start 140 games.

2.) Even in his worst years, he's shown good plate discipline.  He's going to get on base.  Batting at the bottom of New York's lineup, that should mean solid runs and probably solid RBI as well (for his position).

3.) He's the only catcher in fantasy baseball who gives you any steals (double-digits in 4 out of 5 seasons and was on pace for that again last year before his injury).

4.) He's still just 28.

(P.S. In BLOGZKRIEG! I insured myself by adding Jesus Montero for a surprisingly cheap price.  I recommend this course of action in deep leagues.  If Martin goes down or fails to perform, you can bet Montero will be his replacement, either behind the plate or at DH, with Posada moving as well.)

Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansas City Royals

I've been promoting the Kila Monster for three seasons now, ever since he posted a 1085 OPS and a 104/67 BB/K ratio in the high minors in 2008.  The Royals, of course, would seem to have botched his development, flipping him back and forth between leagues and never giving him a prolonged look in the majors.  This year, he has until July (by which time Super Two eligibility will have expired and K.C. might be tempted to promote Eric Hosmer).  Ka'aihue showed how serious he was about taking advantage of his opportunity by hitting .397 with a 1307 OPS this spring.  Obviously, we can't read a ton into those numbers, but I think it suggests that he's chomping at the bit to show off his skills for teams who might free him from baseball purgatory.  Don't reach, but as a cheap corner infielder or utilityman, Kila has a lot of upside and not that much downside.

Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers

You're going to be reading quite a bit about the Brewers in these pages in the coming months, just as you did about the Rangers in 2010.  Hopefully, I can spur them to the same sort of luck.  Many will question Weeks ability to duplicate what he did last year (.269 AVG-112 R-29 HR-83 RBI-11 SB-830 OPS), but I think that's just the beginning.  It feels like Weeks has been around forever, but that's just because he was such a high profile prospect and got promoted at such a young age.  He's still just 28, with plenty of room for improvement, if he can just stay on the field.  Oh...you say...well, isn't that his problem?  Let me just name a few guys getting drafted ahead of him: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia.  You want a bastion of health at this thin position?  Get in line.

Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda's incredible offseason health regimen has turned him into a preseason favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.  In BBA BLOGZKRIEG! I had to go all the way to $19 to roster him, which I was more than willing to do.  Let's face it, you can't hit .330 with a 943 OPS over a full season at the age of 22 as a "fluke."  It just doesn't happen.  His belly has disappeared.  His skills haven't.

Mike Aviles - 2B, 3B, SS - Kansas City Royals

Aviles has a strong chance of being this season's Martin Prado.  Don't overestimate his value, but don't ignore the fact that he's hit .298 over three big-league seasons, despite hitting only .183 in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign.  Aviles is a legitimate .300+ hitter who throws in double-digit power and double-digit speed and, perhaps most importantly, will qualify at three shallow infield positions in most leagues.  Like Prado and Placido Polanco before him, he's great insurance against injury and batting average protection.  Buy with confidence.

Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers

There are different breeds of "sleepers."  Mike Aviles and Ryan Braun are definitely not of the same species.  That said, every year there is a premier player (or two) who consistently fall to far.  Last year's examples were Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton.  This year I think that distinction belongs to the two Brewers sluggers, Braun and Fielder.  A popular new crop of young, high-upside outfielders, led by Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, and Mike Stanton have seduced fantasy leaguers into believing there is a panoply of five-tool options in the outfield.  When you have to fill five slots, as is the case in most leagues, that's simply not the case.  If Braun is still around at the end of the first round or goes for less than $40 in a standard mixed league auction, you'll regret letting him go to somebody else.  This is a guys who's 162-game averages are .307 AVG-111 R-36 HR-118 RBI-18 SB-918 OPS.  Yes, please! Oh, and he just turned 27.

Delmon Young - LF - Minnesota Twins

For some reason, people hate Delmon Young.  I don't know exactly why it is.  Maybe it dates back to that minor-league fracas he got himself into.  Maybe it's because he often looks a little lackadaisical, even a little confused, in the spirit of J. D. Drew and B. J. Upton.  To me, he seems like a quiet unassuming kid.  I emphasize kid because last season, prior to which a whole lot of pundits were ready to declare the former #1 pick a bust, Delmon Young was 24-years-old.  Remember what you were doing when you were 24?  Who's the bigger "bust"?  Delmon proceeded to hit .298 and drive in 112 runs.  Now, I'm the first to admit, he got a lot of RBI chances.  I wouldn't expect him to match that total.  But I see no reason why he can't improve in every other category, as he continues to cut down on strikeouts and improve his power and discipline.  I'll guarantee you this, he's better than the 25th best outfielder in fantasy baseball.

Jay Bruce - RF - Cincinnati Reds

I know, I know: "BANDWAGON!!!"  Sometimes the conventional wisdom is simply wisdom.  Bruce has made strides in each of his first three seasons.  Everybody knows he's a industrial-strength toolbox.  Last year, he started to lay off pitches that even the catcher couldn't reach.  And, really, that's about all he can't hit.  Second half splits in 2010: .306 AVG-30 R-15 HR-34 RBI-0 SB-951 OPS.  Don't be the fool who takes him ahead of Ichiro or Shin-Soo Choo, but don't be the idiot who believes he'd be better off with Corey Hart.

The following pitchers I covered in the most recent edition of "21st Century Cys," so I won't belabor the point with more than a few additional words:

Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins

Say hello to the 2011 AL Cy Young.

Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Could be the Ubaldo of 2011, which doesn't mean he won't suffer from a second-half slide.

Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona D-Backs

Yankees fans will be cursing the trade that sent Kennedy to Arizona about every fifth day.

Here are the underrated veterans:

Carlos Zambrano - SP - Chicago Cubs

No more Lou Pinella.  No more Derrek Lee.  No more Carlos Silva.  No more Milton Bradley.  Perhaps Big Z will get pissed off be somebody else, but in the second half of 2010, he showed what he could do with a little anger management: 8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 K, 74 IP.  I'm obviously hoping for more of the same in 2011.  As an added bonus, Z's meltdown from a season ago has made him eligible as a relief pitcher in many leagues.  Depending upon your scoring system, that could dramatically increase his value.

Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians

In 2007, Carmona was the best pitcher on a staff that also featured C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee.  The following two seasons, things went terribly wrong.  Last year, Carmona recaptured some of that former glory and earned himself an All-Star bid (the truly pathetic quality of his teammates didn't hurt).  Carmona won't pile up strikeouts, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has the potential to pitch deep into games, giving you significant aid in ERA and even WHIP.  Victories may be few and far between in Cleveland, but even with some bad luck, he got 13 in 2010.  This is a very strong pitcher who is almost always available in the late stages of your auction or draft.

Fantastic Thoughts: "A. J. Pierzynski is no longer very good...if he ever was." (Fantasy Baseball Catcher Preview)

I'm going to keep things simple and leadoff with a quote from last year:


"There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop."


That .275-70-15-70 line was even more unattainable than usual for backstops in 2010.  Only one catcher topped 70 R (Mauer).  Only four topped 70 RBI (Mauer, McCann, Martinez, and Kurt Suzuki).  And only five hit upwards of .275 in 400 or more plate appearances (Mauer, Martinez, Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, and John Buck).  Which only further emphasizes my point that it's silly to pay for a middle-tier catcher when you could've had players like Buck, Ruiz, Posey, and Miguel Olivo for next to nothing.  Moreover, some of the usually "safe" middle-tier selections - Pierzynski, the Molinas, Hernandez - suffered significantly down seasons.  


The result is that we've got a pretty top-heavy class in 2011.  


1. Joe Mauer, MIN
2. Victor Martinez, DET
3. Brian McCann, ATL


Nothing's changed.  These were my top three in 2010 and have all been top five for most of their careers.  I do think McCann is somewhat of a distant third, just because he doesn't hit for a high average and doesn't have the luxury of getting some "off days" at DH, but he's also got more power than Mauer or V-Mart.  


4. Buster Posey, SFG
5. Geovany Soto, CHC
6. Carlos Santana, CLE


I've seen a lot of analysts ranking Posey as high as #1 or #2, but I just don't see any reason why we should believe he's immune to the sophomore slump.  Sure, his talent is superlative, but I'd like to see at least one more year of exceptional production before I'm ready to rank him alongside a three-time batting champ and a four-time All-Star.  I actually flirted with dropping him to fifth.  The reason?  Do you know who led all catchers (with 300+ AB) in OPS last season?  It wasn't Posey.  It wasn't Mauer, Martinez, or McCann.  It was Geovany Soto.  He only got 97 starts, but hit .280 with 17 HR and 53 RBI.  Now that Lou Pinella had fled Chicago, Soto will likely be in line for increased playing time and could be considered an elite catching option by this time next year.


7. Jorge Posada, NYY
8. Miguel Montero, ARZ
9. Matt Wieters, BAL
10. Mike Napoli, TEX


Sadly, this is what passes for "tried and true" among the 2011 catching corps: a 39-year-old DH with several trips to the DL in his recent past, a 27-year-old who's started upwards of 75 games only once in his career, a former blue-chip prospect who had a sub-700 OPS in 2010, and a defensively-challenged power-hitter who doesn't have a clear hold on at-bats with his new franchise.  I rank them this way because I assume at least two of the four will finish well inside the top ten in terms of production by the end of the season, but in a one-catcher league I wouldn't touch any of these guys unless they fell deep on draft day or came at a significantly reduced rate (i.e. under $10).


11. Russell Martin, NYY
12. J. P. Arencibia, TOR
13. John Buck, FLA


These are the most interesting late-round flier/sleeper candidates.  Martin used to be a stud, but after two down years, the Dodgers essentially gave up on him.  If he's healthy, he's a solid bet for comeback of the year in New York, playing alongside his childhood hero, Derek Jeter.  The Jays showed their faith in Arencibia by letting Buck walk and trading Napoli to Texas.  The rookie has serious power potential at the Skydome, but could be an average drain in 5X5 leagues.  Buck is coming off a spectacular breakout season in which he was a top-five fantasy catcher, but he'd look dangerously like a fluke even if he weren't moving to a much less friendly ballpark in Florida.  


14. Carlos Ruiz, PHI
15. Kurt Suzuki, OAK
16. Yadier Molina, STL
17. Miguel Olivo, SEA
18. A. J. Pierzynski, CWS


You probably aren't interested in any of these guys unless it's a two-catcher league, but in that format they are quite valuable.  All are "iron-men" types whose managers keep them in the lineup as much for defense as anything else, but all those starts lead to decent totals in the counting categories.  You just have to cross your fingers that they won't destroy your average.


19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS
20. Chris Iannetta, COL
21. Jason Castro, HOU
22. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL


This is the second tier of high-risk, high-reward candidates.  They're all fairly young.  They've all got some upside.  And they all seem in line for full-time jobs.  That could certainly change.  Both Saltalamacchia and Iannetta have been given chances before.  They've always bombed.  But this could be the year, right?


23. Jesus Flores, WAS
24. Ramon Hernandez, CIN
25. Ryan Doumit, PIT
26. John Jaso, TB
27. Chris Snyder, PIT
28. Ryan Hanigan, CIN
29. Kelly Shoppach, TB 


When it comes to catching platoons, it really comes down to how much room you have on your rosters and how much you're willing to work for it.  Last year in Cincinnati, Hernandez and Hanigan combined for 55 R, 12 HR, 88 RBI, and a .298 AVG.  If you were cagey enough to have the right guy in your lineup every night, that line would've been equivalent to drafting a top-five backstop.  Can you get Cincinnati's daily lineup delivered straight to your phone?  I bet you could.  Will you?


The more reasonable sleeper here is Flores, who, before losing nearly two years to surgery, seemed to be developing into a solid hitter.  He's still just 26.  The Nationals catching situation, which also involves Pudge Rodriguez (questing after 3000 hits) and top prospect Wilson Ramos, is crowded, so Flores is unlikely to get a lot of opportunities in D.C., but there are several team's that might be willing to give him an everyday job and will be watching he progress closely during Spring Training.


30. Hank Conger, LAA
31. Wilson Ramos, WAS
32. Jesus Montero, NYY
33. Tyler Flowers, CWS


These are baseball's best major-league ready catching prospects.  Unfortunately, there's a strong chance most of them won't see substantial time in 2011.  Mike Scioscia seems committed to a folly named Jeff Mathis in Anaheim.  The White Sox resigned A. J. Pierzynski, despite a poor showing in 2010.  Wilson Ramos is blocked by Flores and Pudge; Montero by Martin and Posada.  However, injury or ineffectiveness could supply them with opportunity.  Were that to happen, they would immediately be fantasy relevant, even worthy of consideration inside the top 12-15 catchers.  


34. Rod Barajas, LAD
35. Alex Avila, DET
36. Yorvit Torrealba, SD
37. Jason Kendall, KC
38. Ivan Rodriguez, WAS


Somewhere, somehow your draft must have gone horribly wrong.

GM Hot Seat: Ned Colletti, Los Angeles Dodgers

Clearly, Colletti's job is safe, so long as McCourt Divorcegate continues, which will likely be deep into the 2011 season, if not beyond.  But, at some point down the line, either Frank, Jamie, or a new owner is going to be looking to put this extremely unfortunate chapter in the Dodgers history in the rearview mirror and, at that point, everybody in the current administration will be put under the microscope.

Sure, Colletti's got a few things to hang his hat on.  The Dodgers have been to the playoffs three times in his five years as GM, and advanced all the way to the NLCS on two of those occasions.  He masterminded the acquisition of Manny Ramirez, which was wildly successful...until it wasn't, but he hardly could've foreseen Manny's suspension and rapid decline.  He brought in Joe Torre, who was the most popular Dodger manager since Tommy Lasorda.  And, he's proved himself an aggressive wheeler and dealer, trading for helpful players like Casey Blake, Ron Belliard, Jim Thome, Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, etc. at times when they were needed to fill key roles and he never gave up a whole lot in return.

Of course, underlying the solid track record of success on the field is the open secret among the Dodger faithful; most of the talent responsible for the deep runs in 2008 and 2009 came from the tenures of Coletti's predecessors, Dan Evans and Paul DePodesta.  Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Russell Martin, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Jonathan Broxton were all drafted (or signed) prior to Colletti's arrival in 2006.  It's probably too early to fairly evaluate Colletti's drafting and development record, but his only pick to pan out thusfar is Clayton Kershaw.

As for Colletti's record in free agency, that's very easy to address, and the results aren't good.  He's got four major busts - Manny, Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones - who together cost the organization well over $150 Million.  And, while Casey Blake, Hiroki Kuroda, and Rafael Furcal have all earned their money, they haven't exactly been bargains.

Colletti isn't going to survive close scrutiny by the "new" administration, whomever that is, unless he can demonstrate that 2010 was just a blip on the radar.  He needs to get competitive again, right away.  The flurry of activity in Los Angeles early in the Hot Stove season suggests Colletti's well aware of that fact.  It took him less than a month to shore up his 2011 rotation behind young power arms Billingsley and Kershaw.

First, he resigned midseason acquisition Ted Lilly to a three-year, $33 Million deal that will take the junkballing control specialist into his late 30s.  Lilly's prolonged durability (he's averaged 30 starts a season over the last eight years) and his soft-tossing style suggest he can continue to have success at that late age, much like Jamie Moyer has, so the length of the deal is defensible.  In fact, considering how thin the pitching ranks are this winter, there's a strong likelihood Lilly could've gotten more had he tested the market.

Same goes for Hiroki Kuroda, who Colletti resigned for one year at $12 Million. Kuroda, coming of a season in which he posted a 3.39 ERA, probably would've been viewed as the second or third best starter available, behind Cliff Lee, and certainly could've gotten a multiyear deal. However, Kuroda is comfortably in L.A. and seems to want to leave himself the option of returning to Japan in 2012, so he gave Colletti a hometown discount.

Finally, this past week Colletti finished an inexpensive deal for Jon Garland, coming off one of the best years of his career.  Again, it seems likely Garland could've gotten more money or more years had he waited for the pitching market to develop, but he wanted to stay near his home in SoCal, so he took a $5 Million deal with an $8 Million option.  The option kicks in automatically if Garland reaches 190 innings.  Dodgers fans should be warned, he's reached that target every season since 2002, so this should be presumed to be a two-year, $13 Million deal.

All things considered, assuming Billingsley and Kershaw continue to progress towards being tandem Aces, this is a solid corps of starters.  Garland and Lilly can definitely be termed "innings-eaters," as they've proved themselves extremely durable, which should help the Dodger bullpen, which has had a heavy workload the last couple seasons.

Colletti followed his rotational renovations with a somewhat controversial contract offer to veteran utilityman, Juan Uribe, who is coming off a resurgent tenure with the Dodgers archrival.  Uribe helped the Giants by playing solid defense at several infield positions and providing some power as well, but he's definitely a risky investment at three years, $21 Million, which more than doubles what he was making in 2010.  Uribe will probably start as the Dodgers everyday second-baseman, but could move to short or third in 2012, after Blake and Furcal are scheduled to become free agents.  Uribe has a little thunder in his bat.  He's a good bet for around 20 HR.  But his career .300 OBP could make him a bit of a liability, especially in a lineup that is already short on patient hitters.

Most recently, Colletti elected to non-tender longtime catcher, Russell Martin, and middle reliever, George Sherrill, rather than offer them arbitration that could've cost as much as $15 Million.  He replaced Sherrill with Blake Hawksworth, acquired in a trade with the Cardinals for Ryan Theriot.  And, rumor has it, will soon replace Martin with Rod Barajas, probably for something like $2 Million in 2011.  While Martin certainly has the talent to make the Dodgers regret this move, in the short-term it gives Colletti some flexibility.  Even after the signing outlined above and potentially expensive arbitration hearings with Billingsley, Loney, and Kuo, the Dodgers should still be $3-5 Million under their payroll from 2010.

As noted above, I believe Colletti is feeling the pressure to win in 2011, but, considering the Dodgers current investments (including around $20 Million still due to Ramirez, Jones, and Pierre next year) and the McCourt "situation" there is little chance they can get into the bidding on Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, or even Paul Konerko.  This leaves Colletti with a difficult decision.  The 2010 roster that finished in fourth place in the NL West was not that different from the one that went to the NLCS in each of the previous seasons.  Unfortunately, much of the young talent regressed substantially last year, especially Kemp, Loney, and Broxton.  One could very easily speculate that they will return to form in 2011, which could be enough to get the Dodgers right back in the thick of it.  However, it also could be that Ethier, Kemp, and Loney are not ready to carry the offense by themselves and need a veteran slugger (like Manny) to take some of the pressure off.

Colletti could probably go get such a player via trade, but it might mean mortgaging the future.  Prince Fielder would certainly fit the bill, but would definitely cost the team Loney and a couple of top prospects and he would almost certainly be unsignable a year from now.  But if the Dodgers go to the playoffs, thereby protecting Colletti's job, wouldn't it be worth it?  To Colletti at least?

On the other hand, Colletti could look to some of the riskier trade candidates like Carlos Beltran and Josh Willingham.  Such players could probably be had without decimating the farm system, but there is a much higher likelihood they could be busts, either due to injuries or ineffectiveness.

The fact is, time is running short for this incarnation of the Dodgers.  Kemp, Ethier, Broxton, Loney, Billingsley, and Kuo will all be free agents by the end of the 2012 season.  Considering how much success this cast of players had very early in their careers, anything short of a World Series appearance would have to be considered a failure.  If they don't get within striking distance of that goal in 2011, I expect the blame game to begin.  First-year manager Don Mattingly will probably get a pass.  Colletti will not.  It's time for him to prove that he's not just another example of Frank McCourt's incompetence.

Trane Leaving L.A.?

My man-crush on Russell Martin is no secret.  Honestly, what's not to like?  Martin plays the game with a tenacity unrivaled by his contemporaries.  His father is a busking saxophonist (thus, the middle-name Coltrane).  His mother is a French-Canadian lounge singer.  Drafted as an infielder in the 17th round (2002), Martin converted to catcher in 2003 and raced through the Dodgers minor-league system.  A flurry of fortuitous injuries helped him become the Dodgers everyday catcher in 2006, at the age of 23.  He played so well the Dodgers were forced to trade top prospect, Dioner Navarro, who they'd long expected to fill that roll.  Martin rewarded them with back-to-back All-Star campaigns in '07 and '08.  He also won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger and, by the age of 25, looked on track to be among the best players at his position for a very long time to come.  Two years ago we could've had a legitimate argument about who's future was brightest, his or Joe Mauer's?

Unfortunately, those days are long gone.  In '09 his production fell off the table, mainly due to a complete absence of power.  In his first three seasons, Martin had averaged 14 HR and a .433 SLG.  Not Mike Piazza, certainly, but enough pop to keep opposing pitchers honest.  In '09 his slugging percentage dropped to an abysmal .329 and he hit just seven dingers.  His offensive woes prompted speculation that he was playing through an injury.  Perhaps Grady Little and Joe Torre had leaned too hard on their young backstop.  Martin led major-league catchers in innings from '07 to '09, by a relatively wide margin.  Had his heavy workload and Charlie Hustle disregard for endangering his body caught up to him?

Such rumors gained steam this past year, when Martin failed to rebound offensively and then had his season cut short by a hip injury.  At this point there are those who suggest that Martin may be a candidate to be traded or even non-tendered prior to the arbitration hearing in the spring.  The Dodgers are notably cash-strapped by the McCourt divorce and face potentially expensive negotiations with Chad Billingsley, Hong-Chih Kuo, and James Loney.  Martin made just over $5 Million in 2010 and would probably be due for a small raise as well.  If the Dodgers aren't confident he can return to some semblance of his previous self, it may be fiscally safer to part ways, even if it means getting nothing in return for a two-time All-Star.

I certainly don't believe that to be the case.  Martin is still young (he'll be 28 in February) and catchers of his caliber, on both sides of the ball, are a truly rare commodity.  Yes, the Dodgers would have to commit $6 or $7 Million to an uncertain proposition in 2011, but they could very well end up with a player worth more than twice that much, who would then have an abundance of value leading into his contract season in 2012.  Sure, if Martin repeats his '09 and '10 performances, he'll have zero market next winter.  But trading him now would still be a dramatic case of "selling low."  Even teams desperate for catching aren't going to give the Dodgers anything more than spare parts for a player coming off of major surgery.  Best-case scenario they might be able to trade disappointments with a team like the Red Sox or White Sox, but they don't have a natural replacement for Martin waiting in the wings and they have too many other holes to fill this offseason to be creating them at positions where there are extreme market limitations.

It is much easier to find a competent left-fielder or third baseman than a competent catcher.  And Martin is, at worst, competent.  His WARs in '09 and '10 were consistent, 2.2 and 2.1 respectively, which is actually middle of the pack for everyday catchers (16 of 23 in '10, 11 of 23 in '09).  His defensive contributions, as well as his decent OBP, make him a virtual lock to outperform free agents like A. J. Pierzynski, Bengie Molina, and Rob Barajas, who would be the Dodgers other alternatives.  Martin remains a popular player among the Dodger faithful, at a time when support for the franchise is being tested.  He also possesses many of the qualities which new manager, Don Mattingly, also represented when he was a player, and their relationship is reportedly a strong one.

I certainly can see the cause for skepticism, but I think it's too early to throw in the towel on Russell Martin.  I hope to see him back in blue in 2011.  

UPDATE:  Apparently Ned Colletti didn't see it this way.  The Dodger did not offer Martin a contract for the 2011 season and he is now free to negotiate with other teams.  Colletti stated that L.A. "is pretty far down the road" in negotiations with a replacement.  The potential upgrade over Martin in the remaining free agent pool is Miguel Olivo.

I expect most GMs will view Martin neck and neck with Olivo.  With several teams still unsettled at catcher, he should generate plenty of interest.  Those who missed out on Victor Martinez will no doubt see some consolation in a younger, defensively superior backstop who has significant offensive upside.  Thus, Boston is a natural suitor, as are the Mariners, Mets, Astros, Padres, and even the Yankees, if they choose to delay the arrival of Jesus Montero.

OOTP Predicts Ubaldo's No-Hitter

In the third part of my OOTP simulation series I'm looking at a lineup of players who piqued my curiousity going into the season.  My primary interest had to do with their fantasy profiles, so the stats I tracked were 5 X 5 roto categories.

My Broke-Ass Ouija Board Says...The Rockies Hang Their First NL West Flag

The Rockies have an NL Pennant (from 2007) and have been to the postseason three time ('95, '07, '09), but they are the embodiment of the Wild Card era, having come into existence only two year prior to its invention, and utilizing it for every one of their playoff bids.  This is the year that Colorado finally surges to the front of the NL West.

I've been putting off making my western division predictions for both leagues, as I there are a number of reasonable contenders in each of west coast division.  In fact, while participating in the Inside Pulse Sports "30 Teams in 30 Days" roundtables, I think I ended up predicting that four teams in the NL West would finish in third place in order to prevent myself from having to make a strong case for any one of them.

Since those roundtables, there have been a few significant developments.  First, Russell Martin went down with a groin pull.  It isn't expected to cost 'Trane more than a couple weeks of regular season play, but knowing Martin's intensity, you have to wonder whether he will be patient with the rehabilitation process.  Groin injuries can dog a player for much longer than they should if not allowed to fully heal.  A bounceback season from Martin is absolutely key for the Dodgers if they hope to make Joe Torre three-for-three in NL West title attempts.

Also, after early progress, Brandon Webb's rehabilitation has stalled.  It now appears certain that he will begin the season on the DL, with no clear timetable for this return.  With Webb and Dan Haren as co-Aces, followed by Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, the D-Backs had a formidable rotation.  It looks much, much different with two gaping holes at the backend.

Most recently, the Rockies closer, Huston Street, has been diagnosed with a shoulder injury, which will almost certainly cost him a couple months, if not the whole season.  Franklin Morales is the early favorite to take over the closer role, but the Rockies also have two other pitchers with considerable closing experience, Rafael Betancourt and Manny Corpas.  There are also reports that the Rockies have been considering re-signing Joe Beimel or trading for Juan Cruz, although neither is likely to enter the competition for saves.

Giants camp hasn't been completely free of setbacks either.  Freddy Sanchez is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day and Mark DeRosa remains somewhat questionable.  Madison Bumgarner, the early favorite for the fifth spot in the rotation, showed a significant decline in velocity in his first couple outings, provoking worry.

All of this suggests, what probably should be assumed from the start, that with four very competitive teams, the NL West will be determined largely by health and depth.

Fantastic Thoughts: QuickNotes on Spring Training Injuries

Russell Martin - Los Angeles Dodgers - Catcher

It may sound odd, but I actually think this is good news.  It was clear that Trane was struggling with a lingering injury throughout 2009.  Obviously, he's probably the league's premier "gamer," a Charlie Hustle-type who resists taking even routine days off (he's average 150 games a season over the last three years, easily tops at his position).  As a result, his offensive production has suffered in the second half, even in his best seasons ('07 & '08).  If this injury allows Joe Torre to give him more frequent rest in April and May, I think fantasy owners will see dividends in his overall production.  Russell's definitely getting drafted like a top five catcher, despite his off year in '09.  Hopefully this news will push him down a rung, behind guys like Miguel Montero, Kurt Suzuki, and Mike Napoli.  At that price, I'd draft him with gusto.

Alex Gordon - Kansas City Royals - Third Base

Gordon was a tempting "sleeper" pick at a shallow position prior to breaking his thumb.  Now, he won't find his way onto any of my teams.  Hand injuries have lingering effects on production, even once the player is deemed fully healthy.  The upside for fantasy owners, especially in deep leagues, is that this assures that both Josh Fields and Alberto Callaspo get regular at-bats.  Callaspo was K.C.'s second most productive hitter in '09 (which is, granted, like being the second best show on TNT).  He's got multiple position eligibility and thankfully, in fantasy, the fact that he makes Skip Schumaker look like a natural infielder doesn't effect you.

Josh Hamilton - Texas Rangers - Outfield

Hamilton's shoulder issues are definitely driving down his price in many leagues.  I think you've got to treat him as you would Carlos Beltran, a guy who's likely to miss as much as half of the season, but who could provide elite production for an extended stretch.  I wouldn't be surprised if both Hamilton and Beltran make at least 120 starts.  If either of these guys is available 100 picks into your draft (or for $12-$15 in a standard auction), it's well worth the gamble, just make sure sure you also select a solid sixth outfielder.

Jose Reyes - New York Mets - Shortstop

If you were willing to gamble on Reyes last Friday, no reason to change your mind based on the recent news.  His thyroid condition, whatever it is, is highly unlikely to have any effect on his career, outside costing him a few Spring Training games.  You can only hope that it drives some other owner to caution and provides a small discount.  For my, personally, I wasn't willing to pay the premium on Reyes last week and unless he drops dramatically, I'll still be hesitant.

Fantastic Thoughts: "Bengie Molina ate one of my keepers." (Catcher Preview)

A couple weeks ago, it looked all but certain that the eldest Molina was headed to New York, but Brian Sabean swooped in at the last minute and saved Omar Minaya from further embarrassment.  Giants fans can look at the move with ambivalence.  Molina, despite his pathetic on-base percentages, is a decent contact hitter with good power (for a catcher), who is a dependable defensive presence and is familiar with the pitching staff.  When your success is deeply tied to the starting rotation, as San Francisco's so clearly is, it's hard to hand the catcher position to a rookie, no matter how promising he is.

From a fantasy perspective, this is bad, bad news.  Molina is a known commodity who doesn't excite anybody, because his decent power totals (20 HR, 80 RBI in '09) are offset by mediocre performances elsewhere (52 R, .265 AVG).  Molina is the kind of catcher you get stuck with late in a draft or auction because you unwisely spent your funds elsewhere.  Buster Posey, on the other hand, when he was slated as the Giants primary backstop, was the kind of high-upside rookie that fantasy owners get all tweeked about, especially in keeper leagues.  Splitting time between two minor-league levels last season, Posey hit .325 with 18 HR, 84 R, 80 RBI, 6 SB, and a 947 OPS in just 115 games.  Obviously, there will be a learning curve for the 23-year-old at the major-league level, but given 450+ at-bats, I'd be willing to bet that Posey could outhit Molina, even as a rookie.  Unfortunately, it looks like we'll never know.

The catcher position is, as usual, painfully thin.  There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop.

In leagues that require you to carry two active catchers, the strategy is much different.  In such leagues, the Molinas, Pierzynskis, and Ramon Hernandez's of the world are pure gold, merely because they are holding down regular ABs.  Only sixteen catchers got 400 plate appearances in 2009.  Only nine got as many as 500.  In a twelve-team league, that means more that half the owners were starting part-time players, perhaps juggling a couple of them, trying to guess which day Mike Scioscia would go with Jeff Mathis, or which day Jim Tracy would rest Yorvit Torrealba.  Needless to say, this can be a frustrating experience.  When Miguel Olivo goes yard on the Sunday afternoon you chose to start Jason Varitek, who ended up getting the night off, it's like leaving your windows down during a rainstorm the night after you paid full price for a car wash.  You're double fucked.

1. Joe Mauer (Twins)
2. Victor Martinez (Red Sox)
3. Brian McCann (Braves)
4. Russell Martin (Dodgers)

These are, obviously, the cream of the crop, and with the exception of Martin, you'll have to pay through the nose to get them, even though they probably won't register as many ABs as a starting first-baseman or outfielder.  Moreover, each of the big three have had injury issues at some point during the last two seasons, which makes that second or third round pick even more unsettling.

Martin was horrible in 2009 and many will, justifiably, knock him down into the second or third tier, but I'm choosing instead to focus on how consistently good he was in his two previous seasons, during which he averaged 87 R, 16 HR, 78 RBI, and 20 SB, with a .286 AVG.  Those totals, especially the steals, are exceedingly rare out of the catcher position, so I'll happily have another go-round with Trane this spring, rather than settle for somebody who's yet to prove they can get anywhere near such numbers.

Offseason Prospectus #14: The Los Angeles Dodgers

The conventional wisdom this offseason has been that L.A. has not and will not be a major player in the free agent market because of the messy divorce proceedings between owner, Frank McCourt, and his wife and former Dodger CED, Jamie McCourt. I don't care to speculate too much regarding this subject, except to say, it is probably in the best interests of the franchise if Jamie is awarded the team when all is said and done. She is clearly more familiar with the daily operations of the franchise and perhaps more dedicated to the teams success (as she has made it her sole priority since 2004). Since the McCourts took over, the Dodgers have had only one losing season and, under the leadership of Paul DePodesta (GM '04-'05) and Ned Colletti (GM '06-Present), as well as Jim Tracy (Manager '04-'05), Grady Little ('06-'07), and Joe Torre ('08-Present) they have made four playoff appearances and assembled perhaps the best collection of homegrown stars in all of baseball.

Ponder this list for a few moments:

RHSP Chad Billingsley (25) Drafted in 2003 (1st Round)

RF Andre Ethier (28) Drafted in 2003 (2nd Round)

OF Xavier Paul (25) Drafted in 2003 (4th Round)

CF Matt Kemp (25) Drafted in 2003 (6th Round)

SS Chin-Lung Hu (26) Signed in 2003 as Amateur Free Agent

1B James Loney (26) Drafted in 2002 (1st Round)

RHRP Jonathan Broxton (26) Drafted in 2002 (2nd Round)

LHSP James McDonald (25) Drafted in 2002 (11th Round)

C Russell Martin (27) Drafted in 2002 (17th Round)

IF Tony Abreu (25) Signed in 2002 as Amateur Free Agent

RHRP Ramon Troncoso (27) Signed in 2002 as Amateur Free Agent

RHRP Ronaldo Belisario (27) Signed in 1999 as Amateur Free Agent

LHRP Hong-Chih Kuo (28) Signed in 1999 as Amateur Free Agent

I think it's safe to say the Dodgers would not have gone to the NLCS the last two years without this collection of talent. Nobody on this list is older than 28, and yet there are four All-Stars, two Gold Gloves, and three Silver Sluggers. They make up a significant portion of the everyday lineup (Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin), provide arguably the Ace of the pitching staff (Billingsley), and almost the entirety of the bullpen, which was, in '09, the best in baseball.

So, the McCourts and Ned Colletti deserve some commendations right? Well, yes, they did have a significant hand in developing these players, but all of them were acquired prior to the McCourts purchasing the Dodgers, by the man they fired as GM, Dan Evans. Evans, who now heads up West Coast Sports Management, deserves a great deal of the credit for the Dodgers recent success and may be one of the more underrated general managers of the Moneyball era. In addition to the guys on this list, he was also responsible for drafting Edwin Jackson (who Colletti later traded to Tampa Bay for Lance Carter and Danys Baez) and for engineering several trades which gave the Dodgers a great deal on long-term financial flexibility (sending away Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, Eric Karros, Mark Grudzielanek, Paul Lo Duca, Juan Encarnacion, Devon White, etc.). Obviously, trading away veterans (or letting them walk, as he did with Chan Ho Park) didn't make Evans particularly popular with the Dodgers fan base, but it is hard to cite a case (except maybe Sheffield's) where he unloaded somebody who proved toe be worth what they were being paid over the next several seasons. And in the process, Evan stocked the farm system to the incredible degree which is paying dividends for his successors.

Then again, Evans also signed Darren Dreifort to five years and $55 Million.

Free Agents:

C Brad Ausmus (40)

2B Ron Belliard (34)

IF Juan Castro (37)

RHSP Jon Garland (30)

2B Orlando Hudson (32)

IF Mark Loretta (38)

RHRP Guillermo Mota (36)

LHRP Will Ohman (32)

RHSP Vicente Padilla (32)

RHSP Jason Schmidt (36)

DH Jim Thome (39)

RHSP Jeff Weaver (33)

LHSP Randy Wolf (33) [Signed w/ Brewers]

Arbitration Eligible:

Chad Billingsley (25) RHSP

Jonathan Broxton (26) RHCL

Andre Ethier (28) RF

Matt Kemp (25) CF

Hong-Chih Kuo (28) LHRP

James Loney (26) 1B

Russell Martin (27) C

Jason Repko (29) OF

George Sherrill (33) LHRP

ETA 2010?:

IF Ivan DeJesus Jr. (23)

IF Chin-Lung Hu (26)

RHRP Josh Lindblom (23)

RHRP Jon Link (26)

RHSP Ethan Martin (21)

C Lucas May (25)

OF Xavier Paul (25)

Although the Dodgers have a great core of players in place, one can see by the length of their free agency list that this isn't the best offseason to be standing pat. However, they may have no other choice. If that's the case, the continued success of the team will be dependent on the advancement of the prospects drafted by DePodesta and Colletti. So far, only Clayton Kershaw and Blake DeWitt have made any impression at the major-league level.

The primary source of anxiety for Dodgers fans is the rotation. Although the pitching staff was among the best in the league for the bulk of 2009, the young arms of Billingsley and Kershaw faded down the stretch and especially in the postseason. The most durable and consistent pitcher from the '09 rotation, Randy Wolf, is gone, having signed with Milwaukee, so the Dodgers need a fully healthy Hiroki Kuroda and more consistency from the young guns. At the back end, Joe Torre may be holding open auditions. Scott Elbert, James McDonald, and the knuckleballer, Charlie Haeger, were all starters throughout their minor-league careers, but adapted well to bullpen roles in '09. All are still in their mid-twenties, capable of making big strides. They will probably get long looks as starters during Spring Training. As will Ethan Martin. The 15th pick in the '08 draft hasn't pitched above A ball, but the Georgia alum should move relatively rapidly through the system, both due to maturity and the franchise's desperation.

The starting lineup is set at every position but second base, as both Orlando Hudson and Ron Belliard became free agents. Joe Torre seems comfortable handing a starting job to Blake DeWitt, a converted third baseman, who served the franchise well as a utility man in '08 and '09. If that experiment goes poorly, the Dodgers will turn to middle-infield prospects like Chin-Lung Hu and Ivan DeJesus Jr.

The Dodgers success in '09 depends most upon Billinsley and Kershaw, but they also need bounceback efforts from Manny Ramirez and Russell Martin. Manny's lack of production might be explained by his suspension, as he still managed an admirable 949 OPS for the season, but the Dodgers will no doubt be concerned by the fact that his OPS numbers declined in every month, from 1154 in April to 792 in the postseason. Russell Martin's precipitous decline is utterly without explanation. After being one of the best catchers in baseball from '06 to '08, Martin went into the tank in '09, managing only a 680 OPS, over a hundred points below his previous career low. Perhaps he was hiding an injury. Perhaps it was just a fluke. Whatever the reason, the Dodgers desperately need the All-Star to be back behind the plate in 2010.

Joe Torre has defied all his doubters since coming to L.A., taking the team to the brink of the World Series in each of his first two seasons. 2010 may be his greatest challenge yet.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

SS Rafael Furcal (S)

CF Matt Kemp (R)

LF Manny Ramirez (R)

RF Andre Ethier (L)

1B James Loney (L)

3B Casey Blake (R)

C Russell Martin (R)

2B Blake DeWitt (L)

SP Clayton Kershaw (L)

SP Chad Billingsley (R)

SP Hiroki Kuroda (R)

SP James McDonald (R)

SP Charlie Haeger (R)

CL Jonathan Broxton (R)

SU George Sherrill (L)

SU Ronaldo Belisario (R)

MR Ramon Troncoso (R)

MR Hong-Chih Kuo (L)

LOOGY Scott Elbert (L)

MOP Cory Wade (R)

C A. J. Ellis (R)

IF Jamey Carroll (R)

IF Chin-Lung Hu (R)

OF Xavier Paul (L)

OF Jason Repko (R)

Hippeaux endorses...(NL Infield)

I'm going to acknowledge my bias right here.  I will never endorse a caucasian player who plays for the perennially lily-white, holier-than-thou, confederate Braves or Astros.  So, sorry Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones, you're having great years, but I just can't bring myself to vote for you.  That said, here's me NL ballot.

1B - Derrek Lee - Chicago Cubs (.294-93-30-84-897-6)

I explained why Berkman's not an option and Albert Pujols is likely to still be on the D.L. come July, so the OPS leaders among NL first-basemen since the 2007 break are both out of the picture.  The top five is rounded out by Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and - would you believe it? - Conor Jackson!?!  Fielder and Howard have both suffered much publicized slumps early in this year's campaign, but their numbers are still mighty respectable.  Adrian Gonzalez, on fire the past month, is also a legitimate choice.  Counting Berkman, Texeira, and Prince Albert, eight NL first basemen deserve a trip to Yankee Stadium more than the best choice in the American League (Kevin Youkilis).  I endorse Lee, not only out of loyalty to the Cubs, but because besides being a huge catalyst for Chicago's offensive explosion this season, he saves runs consistently on defense, making spectacular "hot-corner" dives and harnessing the erratic arms of Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, Ronny Cedeno, and Mark DeRosa.

Runner-Up: Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies (.250-104-45-131-914-2)

2B - Chase Utley - Philadelphia Phillies (.317-96-29-97-997-9)

I'd love to make a case for Brandon Phillips, who remains among the most underrated players in baseball, but in truth, it's not even close.  Utley has been downright fantastic in the last eleven months, leading NL second-basemen in RBI, average, OBP, SLG, and OPS

(he leads by more than a hundred points).  He finishes a close second to Dan Uggla in HR and Runs Scored, and to Phillips in hits.  And, as the Baseball Tonight crew is constantly reminding us, he's made himself into quite an impressive fielder as well.

Runner-Up: Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds (.283-88-26-86-817-28)

3B - David Wright - New York Mets (.319-107-26-108-956-24)

It would be nice to vote for Aramis Ramirez, but I just can't.  Wright is superior in every statistical category, at least Ramirez' equal on defense, and he can run the bases.  Wright is pretty much the only Met who has maintained his production and focus throughout the unbelievably distracting witch-hunt which has consumed their season.  If New York can turn things around in the wake of Willie Randolph (I highly doubt it), Wright still finds himself primed to make a run at the MVP.  He's in the top 25 in the NL in runs, hits, homers, RBI, and OPS.

Runner-Up: Aramis Ramirez (.302-84-21-95-909-1)

SS - Jimmy Rollins - Philadelphia Phillies (.301-101-20-66-876-39)

This is one of the toughest decisions on the ballot.  You've got the reigning NL MVP, Jimmy Rollins; a guy who's hit thirty homers and stolen forty bases since the last All-Star Game, Hanley Ramirez; the leagues biggest stolen base threat and possibly most dynamic player, Jose Reyes; and a resurgent former AL MVP, Miguel Tejada.  For me, it really comes down to Ramirez and Rollins.  Ramirez has the slight edge statistically, but they may be largely due to Rollins DL stint in April.  For the most part they are nearly in a dead heat.  I give Rollins the advantage because he is definitely a better defender (2007 Gold Glove Winner) and he is a little more consistent (although when Ramirez is playing well, there really isn't any comparison offensively).

Runner-Up: Hanley Ramirez - Florida Marlins (.311-113-30-78-930-40)

C - Russell Martin - Los Angeles Dodgers (.293-70-14-59-830-11)

Geovany Soto deserves a trip to New York almost as much a Martin.  But while Sweet Lou has the luxury of plugging Soto into the six-hole every day, and can rest easy when he takes an 0-fer or needs a day of rest, because he's got Fonso, D-Lee, A-Ram, and Fukudome, Joe Torre depends on Coltrane to be his offensive and defensive catalyst, especially while Rafael Furcal is on the DL, Matt Kemp and James Loney adjust to the league, and Jeff Kent and Andruw Jones appear washed up.  Int the last year, Martin has significant at-bats second, third, cleanup, fifth, and sixth in the lineup, he's won a Gold Glove at catcher, but, oh yes, he plays third base on his "off days" because Torre needs his bat.  He's stolen three times as many bases as any catcher in the NL and masterfully handled a difficult pitching staff.   Dodger fans need to focus these next few weeks on sending the face of their franchise to his second consecutive All-Star start.

Runner-Up: Geovany Soto - Chicago Cubs (.303-37-14-50-926-0)

Fantasy Notes

• Don't Pay For Steals: A couple of early round options, Ryan Braun and Russell Martin, have both gotten hot at the plate after slow starts, but they are still falling short in the category that provoked many roto owners to take them in the top two or three rounds.  Martin has stolen only four bases, putting him on pace for ten on the year, still great for a catcher, but half as many as he nabbed in 2007.  Braun has stolen only two, after grabbing fifteen in two-thirds of a season last year.  Many owners went into 2008 thinking he would have a legitimate shot at 30/30.  Granted, both of these players are massively valuable, regardless of whether they are stealing bases, but both were selected higher because of their high five-category expectations.
• The Worst Offense of the Modern Era: Many pundits, including myself, predicted that the San Francisco Giants lineup would be among the worst we could remember.  Let me be clear, they haven't been good (14th in the NL and 27th in MLB in runs scored), but they have had some very pleasant surprises.  First off, Aaron Rowand, who appeared to be grossly overpaid, moving from the cozy confines of Philadelphia to the wide-open spaces of PNC Park, where you need superhuman Barry Bonds-like strength to hit the ball out from gap to gap.  The home-runs have not exactly been easy to come by (he's got 8), but he is tied for 4th in the league (with teammate Ben Molina) in hitting, at .328.  He's driven in 36 runs and has a 924 OPS.  Molina's numbers (.328-6-38) are also very strong for a player expected to be a low-round option.  However, both of these guys were probably selected in your draft, or picked up shortly thereafter.  The Giant who is still available in many leagues is hitting .279 with 37 runs scored.  He's been getting on base at an impressive .363 clip, has decent power (12 2B, 6 3B, 4 HR), and has stolen eleven bases, that's good for eighth in the National League.  Those steals make him extremely valuable in just about any format.  The player: Fred Lewis.  Keeper league owners especially need to start paying attention.  Lewis is in his second season and is 27, moving into his baseball prime.  It seem likely that, if the Giants are wise (big IF), Lewis will stabilize left field and the leadoff spot, allowing them to focus their off-season free agent search on right-fielders and corner infielders.
• Triple Crown in Texas?: There's been much discussion of the season Josh Hamilton is having, as their should be.  What nobody's mentioning is that while he was first in the AL in average, homers, and RBI, he's second in the AL and on his own team in OPS.  He has had the great benefit of hitting in front of the Toymaker, Milton Bradley, who is batting .328 with a dozen dingers, 38 RBIs, and a league-leading 1050 OPS.  Bradley's talent is beyond dispute and now, with the opportunity to DH at least part of the time, the Rangers can protect his injury-prone body.  Hamilton and Bradley both represent the beauty of recovering from adversity.  Ron Washington has appeared to be a calming presence on both of them.  If the Rangers approach .500, they both could be legitimate MVP contenders.   

Gone-zo

The Dodgers are 8-17 since July 20, during which they have fallen from a first place tie with San Diego to 7 games back of Arizona, in 4th place. Baseball analysts have been blaming the recent swoon on Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, and Juan Pierre. But, in fact, both Kent and Garciaparra are hitting well over .300 during the losing streak, and Pierre is hitting .287 with a .350 OBP, better than his overall 2007 numbers.

One of the problems has been Russell Martin, who has played 113 more innings than any catcher in the NL and is finally showing some fatigue at the plate. He carried the team while Garciaparra was slumping and Kent was hurt, but since July 20, he is hitting .208 with a 612 OPS, even including his 2 HR game a couple nights ago. Many critics foresaw this. Overuse has limited the production of similar (though perhaps not as talented) speedy, run-producing catchers like Paul Lo Duca and Jason Kendall. Hopefully, Grady Little will learn his lesson and give Coltrane more rest in the first half next year.

The biggest problem, however, is that Little refuses to entrust his young outfielders with everyday roles. Since June 28, Luis Gonzalez is batting .227 with 1 HR and an abysmal 558 OPS. The Dodgers are better off with Brad Penny (.271, 654 OPS) at the plate. They are definitely better off with Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, or Delwyn Young. During that same stretch, despite limited playing time, Ethier has hit .288 with 9 2B, 1 HR, and an 833 OPS. Kemp hasn't been quite as good, only .211 with a 632 OPS, but does have 3 HR, and might be expected to improve with regular at-bats. Young had seven hits in fourteen chances during his eight game cup of coffee. All three offer significant upgrades on defense. The Dodgers need to take a lesson from the division-leading D-Backs. The best solution lies within the organization.

The Dodgers have enough talent and pitching to climb back into the thick of the NL West race. But they need to shake things up immediately. Little won't do it, but they have the ideal lineup for the now-infamous La Russa maneuver of batting the pitcher 8th. I think their order should look like this:

Furcal - SS
Martin - C
Loney - 1B
Kent - 2B
Ethier - RF
Garciaparra - 3B
Kemp - LF
(Pitcher's Spot)
Pierre - CF

The theory here is that you should not be giving the most possible at-bats to a player with an OBP twenty points below the league average, Juan Pierre. However, if you bat Pierre in front of the pitcher you are less likely to get full advantage of the skills he does have, creating havoc on the basepaths and scoring runs, because the easy out behind him will kill a lot of opportunities. By batting him ninth, you give him the opportunity to do many of the things he would do as a leadoff man. When he does get on base, he will have dangerous hitters coming up after him and his pesky presence provides a distraction for the opposing pitcher.

The Real Golden Gloves

Who are truly the best defensive players in baseball in 2007?

Catcher NL : Russell Coltrane Martin - Los Angeles Dodgers

One of the rare occasions when popularity may benefit the deserving candidate. Martin has become known as one of the game's preeminent hustlers, he is easily the best offensive catcher in the NL, and the catch he made hanging onto the netting behind home plate will be on every highlight reel for years to come. Martin is a converted infielder who hasn't been catching for two full seasons yet, at any level. As such, baserunners have not been shy of him. He has given up more stolen bases than anybody but Jason Kendall and Jorge Posada. However, teams have slowed down as the season has gone on. Coltrane's CS% is 2nd in the NL among qualifying backstops. (He'll fall to third if Yadier Molina eventually accumulates enough innings.) He's picked off four of ten would-be basestealers in August. Seizing control of the running game is one thing, seizing control of the pitching staff is significantly more important. Martin has the best Catcher's ERA in the NL, second in all of baseball, even though the Dodgers pitching staff is 5th in the NL and 7th in the MLB. He also leads all catchers in Innings and Range Fielded. I don't dispute that a healthy Yadier Molina deserves the golden mitt on his mantelpiece annually, but this is the year to give it to the man who may be his only legitimate competition for the next decade.

Runner-Up: Molina, David Ross

Catcher AL: Kenji Johjima - Seattle Mariners

Kenji has made only one error all season. He's thrown out about 38% of basestealers, 2nd in the AL. And, most amazingly, has managed a pitching staff composed of raw youngsters and veteran castoffs into playoff contention. As with Martin, his notoriety as a valuable offensive catalyst doesn't hurt. I-Rod will probably win again on his much deserved reputation, but for the first year it appears his defensive skills are fading (24.5 CS%, 5 ER).

Runner-Up: A. J. Pierzynski, Jason Varitek

First Base NL: Todd Helton - Colorado Rockies

The National League is replete with solid, even exceptional, defensive players at a weak defensive position. The recent addition of Mark Teixeira only adds to the abundance. Teixeira, Derrek Lee, and Helton have all won the award on multiple occasions. Albert Pujols won his first last year. The fact that Lee and Helton both spent significant time on the DL should not diminish the accomplishment. This year Pujols is 2nd in Zone Rating, 2nd in Range Factor, and 2nd in Assists. But Helton deserves to win his 4th. He leads the league in Zone Rating, Range Factor, Fielding Percentage, and Double Plays. Plus, he captains a young infield that includes some loose canons.

Runner-Up: Pujols, Lee, Adrian Gonzalez

First Base AL: Kevin Youkilis - Boston Red Sox

In the AL, thanks to the loss of Teixeira, there is no first baseman with previous gold glove credentials. Guys like Lyle Overbay, Richie Sexson, and Sean Casey have solid reputations, but , amazingly, Youkilis, a converted third baseman has gone 820 innings without dropping a Mike Lowell lightning bolt or botching a tricky Fenway hop. He hasn't made a single error all season. It's hard to argue with that.

Runner-Up: Lyle Overbay

Second Base NL: Brandon Phillips - Cincinnati Reds

I'll lead with some statistics. He's first in Total Chances (574), Putouts (245), Double Plays (89), and Fielding Percentage (.990). He's second in assists (323). He's third in Range Factor (5.10) and Innings (1003). In those latter categories, he trails by only a narrow margin. But if you watch Baseball Tonight, you don't need these statistics. Phillips makes regular appearances on Web Gems, almost Omar Vizquel-regular, and his spectacular plays are often in game-saving situations. His athleticism will make him a perennial contender for this award.

Runner-Up: Orlando Hudson, Adam Kennedy

Second Base AL: Placido Polanco - Detroit Tigers

He's not got the best range in the league, but he just set a record for second basemen for the most chances and games without making an error. As I put forth for Youkilis, that kind of consistency makes for an easy case. And, it isn't like Polanco doesn't take any risks.

Runner-Up: Mark Ellis

Third Base NL: Pedro Feliz - San Francisco Giants

Sure, my Bonds obsession means I watch a lot of Giants games. One might conclude that my daily observance has given me a bias towards Feliz. Keep in mind, claiming that Feliz deserves a gold glove is not equivalent to claiming that Feliz deserves to be the Giants everyday third baseman. The statistics show that what I have been observing of Feliz' defensive gifts is no illusion. He leads the NL in Range Factor and Zone Rating. He is only behind Aramis Ramirez and Scott Rolen in Fielding Percentage by the slimmest of margins (.002). Those who would support the ever-popular David Wright should note that he isn't near the top in any of these categories.

Runner-Up: Rolen, Ryan Zimmerman

Third Base AL: Eric Chavez - Oakland Athletics

Eric Chavez' streak of six consecutive Gold Gloves is unlikely to come to an end this year. Not because Chavez has been very good, but because nobody else has been exceptional either. This race was opened up by the injury to Joe Crede, who was playing exceptionally, despite his bad back. Don't get me wrong, I think Brandon Inge, Mike Lowell, and Chavez are all great third basemen, but they have all had mediocre years on defense after great performances in 2006. Chavez and Lowell led the league with .987 Fielding Percentages in 2006. Chavez' .975 is good enough this year. Inge led the AL with a 3.45 Range Factor in 2006. Inge, Lowell, Crede, Adrian Beltre, and Chavez were all better last year than Melvin Mora's league-leading 2.97 in '07.

Runner-Up: Inge, Lowell

Shortstop NL: Omar Vizquel - San Francisco Giants

Not much explanation is needed here. Somebody may get a chance to start their own collection soon, but Omar has made an excellent case for his twelfth Gold Glove; 1st in Fielding Percentage, 1st in Zone Rating, 4th in Range Factor.


Runner-Up: Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitski

Shortstop AL: Orlando Cabrera - Los Angeles Angels

I will start by pointing out that Derek Jeter is 12th of thirteen eligible shortstops in Zone Rating, 9th in Range Factor, and 6th in Total Chances and Fielding Percentage, despite playing more innings than any other AL Shortstop. If he wins again this year, it will be the biggest travesty yet. It should be a four-way competition. At this point it is too close to call. The sure-handed Orlando Cabrera would be my bet.

Runner-Up: Jhonny Peralta, Micheal Young, Juan Uribe

Outfield NL: Carlos Beltran - New York Mets, Andruw Jones - Atlanta Braves, Aaron Rowand - Philadelphia Phillies

Another rare instance where the voters might get it right. Playing centerfield on an NL East contender apparently demands the best. Jones is, of course, a perennial winner, and Beltran won his first last year. Rowand is getting a lot of attention thanks to his highlight reel plays and his all-star appearance. They are 1, 2, and 3 among NL centerfielders in Fielding Percentage, none of them having made more than 2 errors. They are 1, 2, and 5 among NL outfielders in Range. Rowand is tied for 2nd in outfield assists. Beltran is 2nd in Zone Rating.

Runner-Up: Shane Victorino, Jeff Franceour, Corey Hart, Alfonso Soriano, Austin Kearns, Eric Byrnes

Oufield AL: Ichiro Suzuki - Seattle Mariners, Curtis Granderson - Detroit Tigers, Gary Matthews Jr. - Los Angeles Angels

Ichiro has been downright amazing during his conversion to centerfield. He hasn't made an error all year. He has 8 outfield assists and trails only Granderson in putouts. Granderson and Ichiro should be easy choices. However, after them, Matthews Jr, Torii Hunter, David DeJesus, and Coco Crisp all deserve consideration. And that's just among centerfielders! A special notice should be made of Micheal Cuddyer and Mark Teahan who, as converted infielders, are ranked 1 and 2 in outfield assists. Teahan has led all AL Rightfielders in Range.

Runner-Up: DeJesus, Hunter, Crisp, Teahan

Bold Predictions - NL West

Rafeal Furcal says, "Check this blog."

Unlike the divisions which feature bottom-feeders like the Royal, Orioles, Devil Rays, Nationals, and Pirates, the NL West is composed of five teams for which contention is a legitimate argument. Some critics will scoff at the elderly Giants, others at the pitching-poor Rockies, but even those teams have enough indisputable strengths that good luck (a.k.a. bad luck for their opponents) could provide enough momentum to jetison them into the playoffs. Last year the NL West sent two teams. Both of which got knocked out in the opening round. This year the Phillies and Mets seem like Wild Card favorites standing head and shoulders above the rest of the competition in the East, but it is not altogether unlikely that two teams could again slip in from the West.

There are no easy innings in the NL West. In a style more typical of the American League, this division is defined by its depth. Their are no elite 3-4-5 combinations (although Helton-Atkins-Holliday could become one), but unlike teams that have potent hitters in the middle of the order like Houston and St. Louis, no team in the NL West has a starting position player that is a glaring offensive liability. The Rockies may be an exception, depending upon the productivity they get from Kaz Matsui at 2B and Chris Iannetta at C, but both those players have upside and Colorado makes up for it with as much potency 1-6 as any team in the division.

It's a similar story with the rotations. The Dodgers have so much depth in starting pitching that they have had to convert top prospect Chad Billingsley into a reliever, even though he went 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA during the stretch run in 2006. The Diamondbacks have a quartet of perennial 200-inning horses, and five of the last eight Cy Young awards. The young, fast lineup behind them will have to prove that they are major leagure ready defenders, as none of these guys - even Randy Johnson - can depend heavily on the K. The Padres added David Wells and Greg Maddux as dependable, strike-throwing veterans behind the powerful young trio of Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and Clay Hensley. And the Giants bost a similarly diverse rotation with two of the greatest curveballers of the past decade - Barry Zito and Matt Morris - balanced by young power arms Matt Cain and Noah Lowry.

Division Champs - Los Angeles Dodgers

In a division as tight as this one (or similarly, the AL Central), unfortunately a lot hinges on luck. Or, to put a more positive spin on it, how one prepares for and recovers from bad luck. The Dodgers are in better shape than any team in their division (and maybe the league) to replace injured contributors with at least league-average capable backups. In some cases, Dodgers fans may be praying for injuries. I have a hard time believing that James Loney isn't already a better middle of the lineup option than Luis Gonzalez. Similarly, I would rather see a Chad Billingsley at the back end of my rotation than a Brett Tomko. Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, Jonathan Broxton, and Hong-Chih Kuo are all young players ready to step up when the opportunity presents itself. And with injury-prone veterans like Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, Jason Schmidt, and Brad Penny slated for key roles, there should be plenty of opportunities.

Key Player : Russell Martin - C

Be prepared to here a lot about Russell Coltrane Martin in this blog as he catupulted to the top of my most soulful players list with his impressive rookie campaign and his tear-jerking backstory. But, personal preference aside, this is the one position the Dodgers can't afford to turn over to the next in line. There was a time when Mike Lieberthal was a solid choice as an everyday starter and he's still an enviable offensive backup backstop, but even in his prime he never provided the combination of power, speed, discipline, and defense that Martin brings to the ballpark on a daily basis.

Runner-Up - San Francisco Giants

This is an unpopular choice. Besides the constant outrage towards the original Bay Area Barry, the Giants are now taking flak for paying too much for Barry Z. and generally not getting younger. I won't aim to invalidate those criticisms. Soon, very soon, San Francisco needs to shed the model which has brought it great success for over a decade and move in a new direction so they can keep filling those seats in that beautiful ballpark while Bonds is racking up a hundred or so homers in the American League. But this was not the year. The Zito signing aside, rebuilding your roster with free agents in the winter that Jason Marquis gets Jason Schmidt money, and Jason Schmidt gets Jason Giambi money is not a viable solution. The free agent crop next year includes Andruw Jones, Mark Texeira, and, possibly, Alex Rodriguez. Start with one of them.

The team they are putting on the field is mediocre at best on offense, but so was San Diego last year, and Oakland, and they both made the playoffs. The pitching staff, if the bullpen comes together, is potentially dominant. Cain & Zito are both Aces in 2007, mark my word. Zito will mow down unprepared NL hitters (and pitchers) in one of the hardest ballparks to hit home runs out of (unless you're you know who). Cain will make the next logical progressive step towards his inevitably strong-if-not-spectacular career and the Giants will get at least one unsuspected performance from either Noah Lowry, Brad Hennessy, or Jonathan Sanchez. There is too much talent there for none of them to step up. Granted, all this merely means getting a few games above .500, but in the NL, as St. Louis proved again last year, that may be enough.

Key Player : Matt Morris - SP

Obviously, the Barrys have to be the Barrys. But that goes without saying. If Bonds, Zito, or Cain goes down, that's the ballgame. See you next year. Morris is the key, because if Morris steps up the Giants posses among the best rotations in the league, that alone makes them a contender. I don't have any delusions of Morris becoming the pitcher that was in 2001 & 2002 for St. Louis. But how about the one he was in 2004 & 2005. If he can stabalize the back end of the rotation with another 200 innings and an ERA below 4.50, he has a legitimate shot at 15+ wins, and there are still some days when that 12:30 curveball is nearly unhittable (even last year he threw two complete games). He does that and it takes a hellavu lot of pressure off the newbies.

3rd Place - San Diego Padres

Yes, it's a good rotation. Yes, it could be a great rotation. But on the other side of the ball: Could it be a great lineup? No. Every starter would have to hit his ceiling for San Diego's offensive production, particularly at Petco Park, to look anything better than league average. Of course, they haven't even been that good and they've advanced to the playoffs two years in a row on the backs of their pitchers. The competition is stiffer this time around. Don't look for it to be a three-peat.

Key Player : Adrian Gonzalez - 1B

Other than Gonzalez, the sources of power in San Diego's lineup are swift-footed doubles hitters like Mike Cameron, Khalil Greene, and Brian Giles, none of which are likely to surpass 20 dingers (again, especially at Petco). Adrian Gonzalez bested all of them with 24 HR in 2006. There is no more Mike Piazza, so Gonzalez is going to have to step up and prove that he can be the big bopper position in San Diego's lineup.

4th Place - Arizona Diamondbacks

They have those four horsemen: Brandon Webb (2006 Cy Young), Randy Johnson (5 Cys, 3 Runner-Up, 280 W), Doug Davis (630 IP with Milwaukee '04-'06), and Livan Hernandez (7 straight seasons of 216+ IP). Every one of them was an opening day starter in 2006. They compiled a 57-43 record. Not bad. Take away Webb, it falls to 41-35. Still fine. Of course, Johson was pitching in front of one of the most potent lineups in baseball history, but...O. K. I digress. The problem here is not the pitching. The pitching will be reliable, possibly excellent. This is last year's Florida Marlins, but they won't get as much credit because they aren't exactly doing it on the cheap. I expect at least two or three players from the Diamondbacks to be in the running for Rookie of the Year honors, with center-fielder Chris Young the obvious favorite. It will be a fun team to watch. Besides the horsemen and the rookies, they have Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson, two potent young corner infielders coming into their prime. But, the D-Backs are still at least a year away from returning to the postseason.

Key Player : Eric Byrnes - LF

As the most veteran presence in the everyday lineup (at the ripe old age of 31), Byrnes will have to build off his own breakout year - in which, as a guest commentator during the playoffs, he coined the term "tickler" in reference to a peculiarly long soul patch - and keep his twenty-something teammates heads up during the inevitable dry stretches. We know the Big Unit isn't going to do it, but Byrnes is a suitable candidate, so long as he doesn't suffer through his own prolonged slump.

5th Place - Colorado Rockies

Last year, the pitching improved, drastically. Their 5.01 R/G was the best since their inception in 1993, by almost half a run! And, for the first time they were not among the two worst in the league. They continued to score runs even as their longtime centerpiece, Todd Helton, struggled with various ailments and offensive inconsistencies. If he returns to a moderate .320-25-90 plateau (moderate for him), the middle of the lineup will begin to rate among the best in the league, up with New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, and Houston. The pieces are falling into place in Colorado, especially if the swap of Jason Jenning to Houston for Willy Tavarez, Jason Hirsh, and Taylor Bucholz turns out to be the bonanza it appears to be. If the pitching makes another significant step forward, Colorado could be this year's Detroit Tigers.

Key Player(s) : Aaron Cook & Jason Hirsh - SP

Nobody believes that Colorado can put together a strong starting rotation, but they continue to try. The traded the winningest pitcher in franchise history for some additional pieces. Hirsh is apparently ready now and will be inserted the #4 slot, behind emerging Ace, Jeff Francis, journeyman, Rodrigo Lopez, and Aaron Cook. Lopez and whoever the #5 is, Josh Fogg or B. Y. Kim, will undoubtedly have difficulty keeping their ERAs around 5.00. Cook and Hirsh must do considerably better than that.