Fantastic Thoughts: Hippeaux 2011 "Sleeper" Team

As you may have noticed, things have been a little busy in the land of Hippeaux.  I apologize for the fact that, at the time of year when many are itching for preseason predictions and analysis, I've been busy with my day job.  Over the weekend, I'll get out the "ouija board" and continue my series on Tout Wars.  I will obviously have an unfair advantage in my predictions, having already watched a game or two of Milwaukee v. Cincinnati.  In the meantime, here's a lineup of guys I'm "touting" for breakout campaigns in 2011.  I know it's belated, but there are still plenty of drafts on the horizon.

Russell Martin - C - New York Yankees

What's new, right?  Martin's always been among my favorites and it's going to pain me dearly to see him in pinstripes, but as a fantasy owner, this is a dream come true.  For one thing, Martin's popularity has absolutely tanked.  After his first three seasons, when Martin was averaging 14 HR and 16 SB a year, we probably got a little giddy, ranking him alongside the McCann's and V-Mart's of the world.  Now, coming off two seasons in which he was dogged by injuries, buried in a mediocre lineup, and discouraged by an unsupportive organization, he's been more or less forgotten (he's the 17th most popular catcher in ESPN standard leagues).  The argument for Martin goes like this:

1.) He's a high energy player and excellent defender who Joe Girardi is going to fall in love with.  So long as his hip is fully healthy, I think he's a synch to start 140 games.

2.) Even in his worst years, he's shown good plate discipline.  He's going to get on base.  Batting at the bottom of New York's lineup, that should mean solid runs and probably solid RBI as well (for his position).

3.) He's the only catcher in fantasy baseball who gives you any steals (double-digits in 4 out of 5 seasons and was on pace for that again last year before his injury).

4.) He's still just 28.

(P.S. In BLOGZKRIEG! I insured myself by adding Jesus Montero for a surprisingly cheap price.  I recommend this course of action in deep leagues.  If Martin goes down or fails to perform, you can bet Montero will be his replacement, either behind the plate or at DH, with Posada moving as well.)

Kila Ka'aihue - 1B - Kansas City Royals

I've been promoting the Kila Monster for three seasons now, ever since he posted a 1085 OPS and a 104/67 BB/K ratio in the high minors in 2008.  The Royals, of course, would seem to have botched his development, flipping him back and forth between leagues and never giving him a prolonged look in the majors.  This year, he has until July (by which time Super Two eligibility will have expired and K.C. might be tempted to promote Eric Hosmer).  Ka'aihue showed how serious he was about taking advantage of his opportunity by hitting .397 with a 1307 OPS this spring.  Obviously, we can't read a ton into those numbers, but I think it suggests that he's chomping at the bit to show off his skills for teams who might free him from baseball purgatory.  Don't reach, but as a cheap corner infielder or utilityman, Kila has a lot of upside and not that much downside.

Rickie Weeks - 2B - Milwaukee Brewers

You're going to be reading quite a bit about the Brewers in these pages in the coming months, just as you did about the Rangers in 2010.  Hopefully, I can spur them to the same sort of luck.  Many will question Weeks ability to duplicate what he did last year (.269 AVG-112 R-29 HR-83 RBI-11 SB-830 OPS), but I think that's just the beginning.  It feels like Weeks has been around forever, but that's just because he was such a high profile prospect and got promoted at such a young age.  He's still just 28, with plenty of room for improvement, if he can just stay on the field.  Oh...you say...well, isn't that his problem?  Let me just name a few guys getting drafted ahead of him: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia.  You want a bastion of health at this thin position?  Get in line.

Pablo Sandoval - 3B - San Francisco Giants

Kung Fu Panda's incredible offseason health regimen has turned him into a preseason favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.  In BBA BLOGZKRIEG! I had to go all the way to $19 to roster him, which I was more than willing to do.  Let's face it, you can't hit .330 with a 943 OPS over a full season at the age of 22 as a "fluke."  It just doesn't happen.  His belly has disappeared.  His skills haven't.

Mike Aviles - 2B, 3B, SS - Kansas City Royals

Aviles has a strong chance of being this season's Martin Prado.  Don't overestimate his value, but don't ignore the fact that he's hit .298 over three big-league seasons, despite hitting only .183 in his injury-shortened 2009 campaign.  Aviles is a legitimate .300+ hitter who throws in double-digit power and double-digit speed and, perhaps most importantly, will qualify at three shallow infield positions in most leagues.  Like Prado and Placido Polanco before him, he's great insurance against injury and batting average protection.  Buy with confidence.

Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers

There are different breeds of "sleepers."  Mike Aviles and Ryan Braun are definitely not of the same species.  That said, every year there is a premier player (or two) who consistently fall to far.  Last year's examples were Miguel Cabrera and Josh Hamilton.  This year I think that distinction belongs to the two Brewers sluggers, Braun and Fielder.  A popular new crop of young, high-upside outfielders, led by Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, and Mike Stanton have seduced fantasy leaguers into believing there is a panoply of five-tool options in the outfield.  When you have to fill five slots, as is the case in most leagues, that's simply not the case.  If Braun is still around at the end of the first round or goes for less than $40 in a standard mixed league auction, you'll regret letting him go to somebody else.  This is a guys who's 162-game averages are .307 AVG-111 R-36 HR-118 RBI-18 SB-918 OPS.  Yes, please! Oh, and he just turned 27.

Delmon Young - LF - Minnesota Twins

For some reason, people hate Delmon Young.  I don't know exactly why it is.  Maybe it dates back to that minor-league fracas he got himself into.  Maybe it's because he often looks a little lackadaisical, even a little confused, in the spirit of J. D. Drew and B. J. Upton.  To me, he seems like a quiet unassuming kid.  I emphasize kid because last season, prior to which a whole lot of pundits were ready to declare the former #1 pick a bust, Delmon Young was 24-years-old.  Remember what you were doing when you were 24?  Who's the bigger "bust"?  Delmon proceeded to hit .298 and drive in 112 runs.  Now, I'm the first to admit, he got a lot of RBI chances.  I wouldn't expect him to match that total.  But I see no reason why he can't improve in every other category, as he continues to cut down on strikeouts and improve his power and discipline.  I'll guarantee you this, he's better than the 25th best outfielder in fantasy baseball.

Jay Bruce - RF - Cincinnati Reds

I know, I know: "BANDWAGON!!!"  Sometimes the conventional wisdom is simply wisdom.  Bruce has made strides in each of his first three seasons.  Everybody knows he's a industrial-strength toolbox.  Last year, he started to lay off pitches that even the catcher couldn't reach.  And, really, that's about all he can't hit.  Second half splits in 2010: .306 AVG-30 R-15 HR-34 RBI-0 SB-951 OPS.  Don't be the fool who takes him ahead of Ichiro or Shin-Soo Choo, but don't be the idiot who believes he'd be better off with Corey Hart.

The following pitchers I covered in the most recent edition of "21st Century Cys," so I won't belabor the point with more than a few additional words:

Francisco Liriano - SP - Minnesota Twins

Say hello to the 2011 AL Cy Young.

Chad Billingsley - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Could be the Ubaldo of 2011, which doesn't mean he won't suffer from a second-half slide.

Ian Kennedy - SP - Arizona D-Backs

Yankees fans will be cursing the trade that sent Kennedy to Arizona about every fifth day.

Here are the underrated veterans:

Carlos Zambrano - SP - Chicago Cubs

No more Lou Pinella.  No more Derrek Lee.  No more Carlos Silva.  No more Milton Bradley.  Perhaps Big Z will get pissed off be somebody else, but in the second half of 2010, he showed what he could do with a little anger management: 8-0, 1.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 64 K, 74 IP.  I'm obviously hoping for more of the same in 2011.  As an added bonus, Z's meltdown from a season ago has made him eligible as a relief pitcher in many leagues.  Depending upon your scoring system, that could dramatically increase his value.

Fausto Carmona - SP - Cleveland Indians

In 2007, Carmona was the best pitcher on a staff that also featured C. C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee.  The following two seasons, things went terribly wrong.  Last year, Carmona recaptured some of that former glory and earned himself an All-Star bid (the truly pathetic quality of his teammates didn't hurt).  Carmona won't pile up strikeouts, but he keeps the ball on the ground and has the potential to pitch deep into games, giving you significant aid in ERA and even WHIP.  Victories may be few and far between in Cleveland, but even with some bad luck, he got 13 in 2010.  This is a very strong pitcher who is almost always available in the late stages of your auction or draft.

Plowing The Depths of the Designated Hitting Market

When the week began, the only question remaining for the Hot Stove season was how to sort out the plethora of defensively-challenged veterans still looking for work.  You could've had your pick of players with Hall of Fame (or, at least, borderline Hall of Fame) credentials, including Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Johnny Damon.  As the week comes to a close, it looks like they've all been signed (or are on the verge of signing) and several teams are faced with the need to creatively distribute at-bats.

Tampa Bay Rays:

Only a handful of the self-anointed "idiots" who broke the Curse of the Bambino in 2004 are still bouncing around the major leagues.  Two of the most recognizable players from that legendary team, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, brought their talents back to the AL East this morning by signing one-year deals with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Both are coming off severely disappointing seasons:

Damon: .271/.355/.401, 145 G, 81 R, 8 HR, 51 RBI, 11 SB
Ramirez: .298/.409/.460, 90 G, 38 R, 9 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB

However, the Rays can certainly find evidence of remaining skills (especially in the OBP department) and may hope that giving them the opportunity to stick it to their former teams will further motivate the former superstars.

ESPN is speculating that Damon, coming of a year in which he spent the majority of his time at DH for the Tigers, will get the bulk of the innings in left field, while Manny concentrates exclusively on his hitting.  It is certainly true that, while both are suspect fielders, Damon is the preferable option.

However, what has gone largely uncommented upon, at least thusfar, is the extent to which this complicates Tampa Bay's roster math.  There has been some dramatic turnover on the Rays since they got knocked out of the playoffs last October.  Among hitters, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rocco Baldelli, and Willy Aybar have all been jettisoned.  Only a few things about the 2011 Rays lineup seem certain.  Evan Longoria, presuming his health, will start every game at third base.  Ben Zobrist will also play nearly everyday, wherever he is asked.  John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach will share the catching duties.

The remaining six lineup spots will presumably be shared by some combination of Ramirez, Damon, B. J. Upton, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce, Dan Johnson, and Leslie Anderson.  That's right, there may not be enough roster spots for all these guys, especially of the Rays need to carry extra relievers in the early weeks of the season.  The Spring Training competition could get pretty heated.

If you've read this blog at all, you're aware that I consider depth to be one of the foremost necessities of a competitive franchise, so Andrew Friedman has clearly done his manager a great service with these cost-effective signings.  Joe Maddon has a great track record for finding a sizable share of at-bats for everybody on his bench and he like to play matchup baseball.  It's worth pointing out, the above list of players features four lefties and five righties.

I wouldn't assume that Damon (L) and Ramirez (R) are everyday players.  Tampa Bay has generally put a high priority on defense, and there's no doubt that their best defensive alignment features Upton, Jennings, and either Zobrist or Joyce in the outfield.

This move should, however, light a fire under Jennings.  Most had assumed Jennings would open 2011 as a starter, but Tampa has frequently looked to slow down the arbitration clock on their top prospects by promoting them in May or June.

I'd also direct your attention to these splits from 2010:

Brignac (2B/SS): .224 AVG/654 OPS v. LH, .263 AVG/701 OPS v. RH
Rodriguez (2B/SS/OF): .282 AVG/824 OPS v. LH, .231 AVG/629 OPS v. RH
Joyce (1B/OF/DH): .190 AVG/774 OPS v. LH, .246 AVG/843 OPS v. RH
Johnson (1B/DH): .343 AVG/1068 OPS v. LH, .170 AVG/.696 OPS v. RH

Now, these are young players (except Johnson) who had only limited playing time in 2010, so the sample sizes are small and therefore suspect, but you can see the possibility of Maddon exploring platoons (good news for Rays fans, bad news for fantasy owners).

Toronto Blue Jays:

Alex Anthopoulos appears to have pulled off the biggest swindle since A. J. Pierzynski spent an unhappy year in San Francisco.  Yesterday, he sent Vernon Wells and $75 Million of remaining salary to the Los Angeles Angels (of Desperation Valley) for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.  The evisceration of Tony Reagins commenced the moment this deal was announced.  Anthopoulos couldn't have given Wells away to any of the other 28 GMs.  But, instead of lingering over the creative destruction of one of the most successful franchises of the last decade (in 2011, the Angels owe approximately $60 Million, which is the Blue Jays entire payroll, to Wells, Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, and Gary Matthews Jr.), I want to concentrate on the somewhat odd situation this creates for Toronto.

The Jays now feature five players - Napoli, Rivera, Adam Lind, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion - who are, to put it mildly, defensive liabilities.  Anthopolous has basically fielded an entire roster of DHs.  And I'm not even considering the fact that early scouting reports are very skeptical about the glovework of young Travis Snider and J. P. Arencibia.

The Jays are sluggers (#1 in HR, SLG% in 2010), but they are also slugs (28th in SB), and the loss of Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, and John Buck (actually some of their better defensive players) isn't going to change that.  Lind, who made 120 starts at DH last year, is slated to be their new first-baseman (he's logged a total of 76 innings there in his career).  Bautista will reprise his role as a utilityman of the Paul Molitor variety (a.k.a. he plays many positions poorly).  The Jays manager will daily debate whether he prefers Rivera and his -7.5 UZR in LF or Encarnacion and his -11.5 UZR at 3B.  Napoli (24% CS) and Arencibia (28% CS in minors) will take turns letting AL speedsters run wild.

None of this is intended as derision toward Anthopoulos.  He's pumped up the offense while slashing the payroll.  One can easily imagine the Jays and their solid corps of young talent developing into contenders while somebody else is still paying the outrageous contracts of Wells and Alex Rios (both through 2014!).

Up the middle, the Jays have actually improved via the quiet acquisitions (during the 2010 season) of Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar. Nevertheless, there will probably be some Bad New Bears reenactments as Toronto tries to find someplace on the field to hide all their brawny bashers.

Minnesota Twins:

The good news for Twins fans is that Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, both of whom played major roles in last year's 94-win campaign, are back for another go-round.  The bad news is that means Jason Kubel will be forced to reprise his role as "outfielder."  Anybody who watched the Twins play with any regularity last season will not be surprised to discover these stats:

Denard Span: 1349 INN, 6.3 UZR (#4 among 15 AL CF)
Delmon Young: 1277 INN, -9.7 UZR (#13 among 14 AL LF)
Jason Kubel: 670 INN, -8.8 UZR (#15 among 16 AL RF)
Michael Cuddyer: 539 INN, -8.5 UZR (#14 among 16 AL RF)

Yes, their corner outfield defense was abyssmal, easily the worst in either league.

Last year, this shortcoming was balanced, at least in part, by the fact that J. J. Hardy (#3 among AL SS in UZR) and Orlando Hudson (#2 among AL 2B in UZR) were outstanding middle-infielders.  Minnesota must hope they can get similar defense from Alexi Casilla (-7.9 UZR/150 in 1998 career innings at 2B) and rookie shortstop, Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

"Narrative Likability Factor: A Metric For Humanities Majors" & The Minnesota Twins

Any of you who have read this blog before are well aware that I have no problem being conversive in sabermetrics.  This is not a intended as an anti-SABR diatribe or parody.  All I intend to suggest is that at times, and especially in the romantic seasons (i. e. spring and fall), it is easy to become immersed in baseball humanism.  Baseball humanism is the perception that the game possesses a metanarrative, something akin to a parable, or a synechdoche of American history, which makes it more than just a mechanism for enabling gamblers.

Certainly, at its worst, baseball humanism inspires crass nostalgia, old-fogeyism, and self-righteousness.  It is the undercurrent of belligerent steroid conspiracy theories, short-sighted assertions that baseball's "Golden Age" happened prior to integration, basically the entire body of Murray Chass' forgettable canon, and the abundant moralizing of other half-wit sportswriters.  Being a good baseball humanist does not, as Chass believes, mean you hate statistics and stubbornly believe that the abject coincidences of your own experience are necessarily equivalent to "truth."  Bill James and Rob Neyer, two of the most notorious voices of sabermetrics, are both apparent baseball humanists.  The power of baseball humanism (like all humanisms, for that matter) is in our hope that the game, governed by a fairly knowable system of laws, conventions, and politics, is analogous to everything else, that broiling, festering knot of opaque inconsistency and unfathomable immensity we call life.

Some of the heroes of baseball humanism are obvious: Jackie Robinson, Roberto Clemente, Curt Flood.  The powerful social implications of their careers are inestimable.  Likewise, there are antiheroes - Ty Cobb, Pete Rose, Jose Canseco - whose stories, though not to be emulated, are equally compelling.  One of the reasons we adore sport is that the lives of such athletes unfold in front of us as though they were the protagonists of a serialized fiction.  And we have great patience for every variation within the genre.  We are equally amused by the heroic ascensions of Horatio Alger (i.e. Hank Greenberg) and the absurdist tragedies of Franz Kafka (i.e. Milton Bradley).  Omniscience is limited, obviously, but not as much as proponents of privacy would expect.  Thus, we are guided along by an anonymous author whose incredible skill is his ability to write as eloquently as Michael Lewis and Buzz Bissinger, when the occasion demands, but also as amateurishly as Gene Wojciechowski and Mark Fainura-Wada, when his aims are satirical.  It's a dexterity not even John Dos Passos could equal.

One of the great joys of the postseason is joining narratives in media res.  For those players who advance deep into October, especially, a major episode is being written, one which, when we reflect on their "story," will likely help to guide our interpretation. (Clemente's story is soulful, regardless, but is made so much sweeter by his performance in the 1971 postseason.  Similar claims can be made for Bob Gibson, Reggie Jackson, Brooks Robinson, etc.)  In this season's postseason primer, I preview each team based not on their talent, but on their dramatic potential.  What narratological traits have guided them so far, what kind of stories could be yielded by a deep run in October.  Let's begin with a look at the narrative potential of the first team to officially punch their postseason ticket, the Minnesota Twins.

• Retribution Songs (Verse 1): In order to reach the World Series, the Twins will need to upset at least one and likely both of the AL East juggernauts.  New York upended Minnesota with relative ease in the ALDS a year ago, so that sting is relatively fresh for several Twinks, but the personal scars run deeper for Carl Pavano.  Pavano spent four years in the Bronx as part of the largest contract of his career ($40 Million).  During that time he managed to make only 26 starts and compiled a 5.00 ERA.  Through a combination of flukish injuries, off-the-field antics, and clubhouse scuffles, he became one of the most ridiculed figures in New York sports and a major scapegoat for the Yankees inability to get past the Division Series from '05-'08.  Last year, Pavano pitched an outstanding game (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K) against his former team in Minnesota, but the Yankees still won, finishing off their sweep.  This year, Pavano will likely get the chance to pitch in Yankee Stadium, in front of fans who unmercifully booed him for most of his tenure in New York.  Beating the Yankees is always sweet, but for Carl Pavano it would be even sweeter.
• Retribution Songs (Verse 2): If the Twins matchup with Tampa Bay in either the ALDS or the ALCS, their lead singer will be Delmon Young.  The Devil Rays made Young the #1 draft pick in 2003 and in 2007, at the age of 21, he played all 162 games and finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year balloting.  As reward, he was traded to the cold Northwest for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.  The following season, the team exorcized the "Devil" from their name and went to the World Series.  The underlying narrative was quite simple.  The entitled, bat-tossing Young had been the bad egg amongst a group of outstanding prospects, including Josh Hamilton, B. J. Upton, and Elijah Dukes.  For two seasons Young floundered for the Twins, struggling to even hold onto a starting role, while Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett were key players for the Rays.  This year, however, in the parlance of our times, the "script has been flipped."  Young was on the Final Vote ballot for the All-Star game.  He leads his team in doubles (42) and RBI (105), and he just turned 25 last week, while Bartlett is in danger of losing his starting position to Reid Brignac and Garza has posted the worst ERA of his career (4.01, not that bad).  If Young can help the Twins eliminate the Rays, it would be a cold, raw plate of revenge.  This is the window of opportunity for the Rays team as it is currently constructed, featuring many of Young's longtime compadres.  Next year, Tampa will lose many key players, slash their payroll, and begin the rebuilding process.  They'd like to do so on the back of their first championship.  Standing in their way is their former top prospect.
• Overcoming Adversity: If Justin Morneau cannot recover from his concussion in time for the playoffs, the Twins will take the field without two of their three highest-paid and most popular players.  Minnesota lost long-time closer, Joe Nathan, before the season even began and Morneau, who was an MVP candidate in the first half, hasn't played since the All-Star Break.  Nevertheless, the Twins are in the running for the best record in baseball, fueling Ron Gardenhire's candidacy for Manager of the Year.  
• Dome Sweet Dome?:  This is the Twins first year in a new waterfront stadium, Target Field, which is, by all reports I've gathered, a lovely place to see a ballgame.  Moreover, its opening inspired Twins management to raise their payroll by $30 Million and resign the face of the franchise, Joe Mauer.  Nevertheless, there is still a small but vocal minority who believe the Twins sacrificed a franchise icon and one of the keys to their prolonged success by leaving the florescent glare of the Metrodome, and they can back their arguments up with a pretty potent home-field advantage demonstrated over many seasons.  Bringing home the first Twins championship since 1991 would be the most effective way of putting a sock in the naysayers.  
• Sweet Ole' Jim:  The Twins DH, Jim Thome, is high on the list of greatest players who have never won a World Series.  He hasn't even been to a World Series since 1997, and, at 40, he's not got a lot of chances left.  By all accounts, Thome is an all-around nice guy and a superb teammate.  He's also put the team on his Paul Bunyan shoulders for much of the second-half, following Justin Morneau's concussion, so he's more than just a familiar face.  In terms of "win one for the gipper"-type sentimentality, Thome is pretty easy to get behind.  

As with just about any team, you can point to several other soulful players - Orlando Hudson, Francisco Liriano, J. J. Hardy, Matt Capps - who have something to prove in the bright lights of the postseason.  The likely pairing of the Twins with the Yankees makes them feel like a natural underdog.  However, we should point out that they will have the third highest payroll of any team in this year's playoffs (regardless of how it all plays out in the NL).  And, frankly, does MLB need anymore fuel for their "if you build it, they will come" mantra?  Especially since, by "they," MLB means "the affluent."  New York and St. Louis both won championships in the opening season at their gaudy new stadiums, each within the last five years.  It's kind of a tired premise.  Still, of all the teams battling for a playoff bid, only the Reds (1990) and Rangers (19-never) have gone longer without representing their league in the World Series.

Narrative Likability Factor: B+

Fantastic Thoughts: Bossman Jr.'s Got His Groove Back?

There are perhaps no more tantalizing talents in major-league baseball than the Upton brothers.  They've got it all: the sweet, smooth swings which translate into awesome power, gliding, seemingly effortless speed, shoulder-mounted outfield canons, and Grade A boy-next-door handsomeness.  To the great frustration of fantasy owners who've been seduced by their "tools," however, neither Upton has yet posted anything resembling an MVP-caliber season.  Most of the milestones we associate with top-flight players - 30 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R, 900+ OPS - have not yet been reached by either of them, to our great dismay.

Justin Upton can, perhaps, be forgiven, since, at the ripe old age of 22, his "most similar batters" by age list (according to Baseball Reference) still includes guys like Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Miguel Cabrera.  Already nearing the completion of his third full season in the majors, his maturing process is still light-years ahead of the average "top prospect."

His elder brother, however, though hardly past his prime at the age of 26, has logged more than four full seasons and suffered through consecutive years of declining production in 2008 and 2009.  When B. J. Upton was hitting just .226 with 8 HR and a 703 OPS on August 1, many were ready to declare him a one-dimensional player with a skill set somewhere between Juan Pierre and Willy Taveras.  Upton was again on pace to be among the league leaders in steals and remained one the best defensive centerfielders in the league, but his overall offensive production had reconciled him to the very bottom of the Rays lineup, and he was again looking a possible declines in most of the counting categories.  This was a far cry from the guy who mashed 7 HR and drove in 15 runs in just 11 games during Tampa Bay's 2008 run to the World Series or the guy who batted .300 with 26 HR and 82 RBI in just 129 games in 2007.

B. J. has been prone to streakiness throughout his career, so one cannot read too much into this limited sample size, but for the last six weeks, Upton has again been showing the skills which made him the #2 pick in the draft way back in 2002.  Since the beginning of August he's hit 9 HR, including four in his last five games, meaning that, with 17 HR on the season, this is his best power year since '07.  Over that span he's also hitting .273 with an 897 OPS, while continuing to run like crazy, with 11 steals in 12 attempts.

Unfortunately, his K/BB ratio is still a major source of concern.  B. J. is probably always going to be somewhat prone to the whiff, something common for a guy with some serious power, but over the first two seasons of his career, his K/BB rate was a respectable 1.78 and his OBP was excellent (.384).  In the last two years, he has struck out more, while walking substantially less, causing his K/BB ratio to rise to 2.53, while his OBP has fallen all the way to Jason Kendall territory (.319).  Even during his recent hot streak, Upton has not dramatically improved in this department, striking out 44 times in 37 games and walking only 16.  As such, I fear this production may not be representative of him "figuring things out" finally, as Delmon Young clearly has in 2010, but rather he might be benefitting from the fact that pitchers stopped respecting him.  When they are reminded of what he can do with balls in his wheelhouse (i.e. four homers in five days) they will go back to throwing everything off the plate and, unless he then demonstrates a newfound ability to lay off that junk, his power will go right back into remission.

Those who remember Minnesota's loss to the Yankees in last season's division series, will recall that New York's pitchers seemed to be able to retire Young on command.  He struck out five times in a dozen at-bats and left seven men on base in three games.  He certainly wasn't the only weak link in Minnesota's lineup, but he was the most glaring one, because unlike Nick Punto and Brendan Harris, he was supposed to be in there for his superior abilities at the plate (it certainly wasn't for his glovework).  This very public humiliation clearly stuck with Young and he came into camp this season not only in better shape, but with a more refined approach.

Hitters the caliber of Young and Upton do not necessarily need to be walk machines like Adam Dunn.  Quite to the contrary, players like Miguel Cabrera, Vladimir Guerrero, and Carlos Gonzalez have proven that the hyper-aggressive approach can work, if you've got the superior skills for it.  But, nobody can consistently hit balls well outside the strike zone.  When Young realized that, he didn't dramatically increase his walk rate.  This year he's walking 4.2% of the time, compared to 4.0% from '06-'09.  However, he did dramatically decrease his strikeout rate, down from 22.1% in '09 (and 18.8% on his career) to 12.7% in 2010.  Every time I see Delmon lay off a two-strike breaking ball in the dirt or a fastball at his eyes, I get a little amped about the possible rematch between the Yankees and Twins this October.  He could change the face of that series.

I certainly hope that Delmon Young's breakout season has proven that it's silly to declare top prospect "done" in his mid-twenties. B. J. Upton, I believe, will eventually return, at the very least, to the modicum of discipline he displayed in the early stages of his professional career.  However, he needs to keep producing for another couple months before I'm ready to believe he's finally figured that out.

This season I've drafted no less than fifteen fantasy teams. Perhaps I will regret it, but my intention is to win every league, test the boundaries of my knowledge. I am playing in nearly every format: AL-only, NL-only, draft, auction, salary cap, H2H, 12-team, 16-team, roto, points, daily, weekly, yada-yada. As of this morning, my final draft has been completed. Here is a list of the players who appear on three or more of my rosters. These are obviously not exactly the players who I consider the finest at each position. I love Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera as much as the next guy, but they weren't always available when I wished them to be. More accurately, this list indicates which players I am ranking above the average fantasy player or analyst.

Victor Martinez (Indians) C/1B - 6 teams
Russell Martin (Dodgers) C/3B - 3 teams
Yadier Molina (Cardinals) C - 3 teams

My passion for Russell Martin began before he took his first major-league at-bat and is part of public record. Victor is merely a year removed from being widely considered the finest fantasy catcher in either league. His power was sapped by injury last season, but he had 3 HR in spring training and will see a larger share of ABs at first base and DH after the breakout of Kelly Shoppach and the breakdowns of Travis Haftner and Ryan Garko. Yadier Molina is a strikeout-free .300 hitter who is only 24 and already plays like a veteran. He's the definition of a catcher who won't hurt you.

Prince Fielder (Brewers) 1B - 6 teams
Albert Pujols (Cardinals) 1B - 5 teams
David Ortiz (Red Sox) 1B - 5 teams
James Loney (Dodgers) 1B - 3 teams
Jason Giambi (Athletics) 1B - 3 teams

I gathered Pujols in more leagues than usual because so many have strangely ranked him behind the likes of Hanley Ramirez and even A-Rod in drafts which happened prior to his injury. For me, Prince Albert is still the #1 player in fantasy baseball. Prince Fielder is, like Russell Martin, among my man-crushes. His mere 38 HR last year, after 50 in 2007, had him falling to me in the second or even third round in drafts and at under $30 in auctions. Big Papi is a steal this year, so long as the wrist injury hasn't permanently sapped his power (see Derrek Lee). Giambi and Loney both offer significant potential with only moderate risk.

Brandon Phillips (Reds) 2B - 5 teams
Howie Kendrick (Angels) 2B - 4 teams
Rickie Weeks (Brewers) 2B - 4 teams
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) 2B - 4 teams

I, personally, rank Phillips ahead of Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler because he is not an injury-risk and he has yet to reach the limit of his tremendous talents. He is truly a five-tool player. Thankfully, he's usually still around several rounds after those fellows. The other are just talented players who may be on the verge of breakout seasons...or they may not.

Garrett Atkins (Rockies) 3B/1B - 4 teams
Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) 3B - 4 teams
Scott Rolen (Blue Jays) 3B - 3 teams

Atkins won't have the luxury of hitting behind Holliday, but I don't expect him to dip much form the .280-25-100 plateau that he has consistently reached the last few years. He is probably among the most undervalued commodities in fantasy baseball, routinely putting up numbers which rival Aramis Ramirez, but coming nowhere near his price. Zimmerman and Rolen represent high-risk, high-reward options coming off injury-plagued campaigns and hitting in the middle of significantly improved lineups.

Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) SS - 4 teams

Furcal missed most of last season, but during April and May he was as good as any player in baseball. He looked strong in the postseason as well, even though he was probably only at about 90%. After the Big Three (Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins) the field of shortstops drops off drastically. Furcal is arguably the best of the rest, in competition with Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, and Michael Young.

Chris Young (D-Backs) CF - 6 teams
Justin Upton (D-Backs) RF - 6 teams
Delmon Young (Twins) LF - 5 teams
Adam Dunn (Nationals) LF - 5 teams
Alex Rios (Blue Jays) RF - 4 teams
Milton Bradley (Cubs) RF - 4 teams
Adam Lind (Blue Jays) LF - 4 teams
Carl Crawford (Rays) LF - 3 teams
Elijah Dukes (Nationals) RF - 3 teams

The outfield is the place where my "soul brothers" formula is most apparent. Justin Upton, Christ Young, and Delmon Young were very hot commodities a year ago, but all had moderately disappointing seasons in 2008. However, Chris Young is the oldest of the trio at 25 and each is entering their third season in the big leagues. I expect all to endure cold stretches, but also sizzle for weeks at a time as well. Even if none outperforms his '08 numbers, they will have been decent value buys. The same can be said for Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Elijah Dukes. Dunn dropped into the middle rounds after moving to the Nationals. Even if he only hits 35 HR this year (after hitting 40+ the last three seasons), he'll be a bargain. Dukes and Bradley will spend time on the D.L., but they are absolute monsters when they're in the lineup. I also look for rebounds from Rios and Crawford, who was rated as the best outfielder in fantasy by many only a year ago.

Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) SP - 6 teams
Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays) SP - 6 teams
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) SP - 5 teams
Anthony Reyes (Indians) SP/RP - 5 teams
Roy Halladay (Blue Jays) SP - 4 teams
Matt Cain (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Jonathan Sanchez (Giants) SP - 4 teams
Ryan Dempster (Cubs) SP - 4 teams
A. J. Burnett (Yankees) SP - 3 teams
Brett Myers (Phillies) SP - 3 teams
Aaron Harang (Reds) SP - 3 teams
Bronson Arroyo (Reds) SP - 3 teams
James McDonald (Dodgers) SP/RP - 3 teams
Jeff Niemann (Rays) SP - 3 teams

Pitching is deep this year, so I took the tactic of never drafting a pitcher in the early rounds, unless Roy Halladay was still available for my third pick (Zambrano was consitently on the board as late as the 7th or 8th, and could be had for as little as $10 in auctions). As a result, my staffs are composed mainly of young breakout candidates: Jimenez, Reyes, Litsch, and Sanchez. I also liked Kevin Slowey, Hiroki Kuroda, Manny Parra, and Koji Uehara, but wasn't able to nab them as often.

J. J. Putz (Mets) RP - 4 teams
Matt Lindstrom - 3 teams

The fact that I bought into only two relief pitchers consistently indicates the extent to which I refuse of pay for saves. I will say that I bought seven mid-range closers in two leagues apiece. They were B. J. Ryan, Bobby Jenks, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, and Mike Gonzalez. I never paid more than $12 for a closer or took one in the first dozen rounds of a draft. Waiver-wire option are going to be plentiful this year with the save situations in St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Colorado, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Chicago (NL) still very much up for grabs. I will say that I like Putz as a late-round flier because he will provide strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, a few saves, and stands to benefit if K-Rod's decline becomes more noticeable this season.