BBA Ballot: NL Connie Mack Award

Stay tuned at the BBA for the unveiling of the winners later this week.  Here's my ballot for the senior circuit:

Honorable Mentions: Bud Black (Padres) & Bobby Cox (Braves)

I spent all season predicting both these teams to bend over like wet noodles and, in the end, I was only half right about each, so I'm here to say that their collective "overperformance" should be a feather in the cap of their managers.  That said, it was only by virtue of the fact that their late-season flounderings were synchronized with those of the Cardinals and Rockies, as well as each other, that either one of them backdoored their way into playing baseball in October.  Black worked a minor miracle with his young pitching staff, but he also gave away a few critical wins by being too loyal for too long to guys like David Eckstein, Nick Hundley, and the Hairston brothers.  Cox overcame a bevy of injuries and coaxed career years out of Omar Infante and Martin Prado, but he also worked his pitchers to the bone, especially Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens, both pushed too far too fast following their injuries.  It was an outstanding season for both franchises, but one that might actually have leveraged future performance for only modest immediate returns.

Third Place: Charlie Manuel (Phillies)

Eric Karabell has been making the case for Manuel for most of the past month and it's a pretty good one. His entire infield, and therefore his one through four hitters, all missed substantial time.  At one point in late July, when the attrition was particularly high, the two-time reigning NL champs fell as far as seven games back of the Braves and were only three games above .500.  Yet, somehow, even though they were never a full strength, the Phils came raging back over the last two months and finished with the best record in baseball and their best record since 1993.  Karabell is correct.  This is among Manuel's finest accomplishments.  However, he was blessed with an unflappable veteran roster, the core of which has been through this gambit for each of the last four seasons.  He is overseeing a dynasty on rival with Big Red Machine, the "We Are Family" Pirates, and the late-'60s Cardinals, the standard-bearers for National League baseball.  And, this season, he also had the best pitcher in baseball, who threw a perfect game, brought home 21 victories, and recorded more outs than anybody since Livan Hernandez in 2004.  Was there ever a chance this team would finish anywhere except atop the National League?  Probably not.

Second Place: Bruce Bochy (Giants)

In his fourth year with San Francisco, Bochy got the Giants back to the postseason for the first time since the "Bonds Years" ('00-'03).  He was blessed with an extraordinary rotation, but as has been the case in every season since his arrival, Bochy had to fret and stress for every run.  I've already covered San Francisco's dubious, but extremely entertaining "expendables" strategy at length.  It's not easy choosing between Jose Guillen, Nate Schierholtz, and Cody Ross, when that's all you have available.  It's not easy benching two likable veterans (Edgar Renteria & Aaron Rowand) who are making over $20 Million, but can't hit a lick.  It's not easy turning the left side of your infield over to two men who weigh about 250 lbs. apiece (Pablo Sandoval & Juan Uribe) when you are team built around pitching.  Bochy was faced with numerous tough decisions and almost all of them worked out perfectly.  You can give some of the credit to Brian Sabean or to luck, which may be the same thing, but you can't argue with the result.

First Place: Dusty Baker (Reds)

Cincinnati's 13 win improvement is the largest of any team in the majors between '09 and '10.  There only significant offseason acquisitions were a 20-year-old Cuban lefty who didn't make his debut until late August and a 35-year-old journeyman shortstop who finished the season at 0.4 wins above replacement.  When Baker came to Cincinnati in '08 promising to get them back to the postseason, many probably believed he would do it with a ton of veterans acquired through free agency, as he had with Chicago and San Francisco.  Quite to the contrary, this team is built on a foundation of youth and primed to compete for several years to come.  Baker clearly had a plan from the moment he joined the organization.  As usual, he gained the trust of his players.  And, as usual, he kept his promises.  It doesn't take a whole lot of stats to prove that Baker is worthy of his fourth Manager of the Year trophy, tying him with Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox for the most all time.  But there are these.  The Reds led the NL in runs, hits, homers, total bases, RBI, average, slugging percentage, and OPS.  They also tied for the fewest errors and the highest fielding percentage.  In my opinion, it's enough to make Baker deserving of his first Connie Mack award.

"Narrative Likability Factor" & The Cincinnati Reds

I'm continuing my ongoing assessment of playoff-bound franchise based upon their dramatic appeal with a look at the Cincinnati Reds.  Here's what's to like:

• The Cleveland of Southern Ohio: We generally make a big deal out of cities with tortured fan-bases, but for some reason, Cincinnati rarely makes that list, even though the city went a decade (from '95-'05) without even sniffing the playoffs in either football or baseball.  The last time they celebrated a championship was 1990.  Certainly, their drought is miniature in comparison with some of the other teams in the league, but of all the remaining contenders, the Reds are the franchise that has waited the longest for the opportunity to play baseball in October.
• A Big Middle Finger To Billy DeWitt, Jr.:  The Cardinals aren't exactly the "Evil Empire," but they are the most successful franchise in the history of the N.L. and they were heavily favored to runaway with the Central division again when the season began.  But former St. Louis GM, Walt Jocketty, has run roughshod over his former club.  To considerable astonishment, Cardinal's owner, Bill DeWitt, fired Jocketty only a year after the Cardinals won the 2006 World Series, despite the fact that he'd taken the Redbirds to the postseason eight times in the previous twelve seasons.  The Reds jumped at the opportunity to land Jocketty, immediately hiring him as a consultant and inserting him as GM less than a year later.  One of his first orders of business was the acquisition of another disgruntled former Cardinal, Scott Rolen, who has had a resurgent season at the center of the Reds lineup.  Rumors swirled last offseason that Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan might soon follow.  Getting back to the promised land before DeWitt would by the capstone of Jocketty's calculated revenge.
• Baker's Curse: Dusty Baker is, by all accounts, one of the most likable managers in the sport.  He's adored by his players, convivial with the media, and never squabbles with his front office.  He has also been very successful.  This will be his fourth division title, with his third different team.  He's been named Manager of the Year three times, and could make it four with this year's performance.  He also took the Wild Card Giants to within eight outs of a Championship in 2002 and the lowly Cubs to within five outs of the World Series in 2003.  His 1400+ victories rank him 25th all-time and within a couple years he will have moved well inside the top 20.  Of the 24 managers currently in front of him, sixteen are in the Hall of Fame, and Joe Torre, Bobby Cox, Ton LaRussa, and Jim Leyland are almost certainly headed there sooner or later.  However, all those who gained induction as managers had won at least one World Series.  Baker has never gotten his team to the podium and, at 62, he may be running out of chances.  We can be certain, if the Reds have a lead in the late innings of a deciding game, Baker's gonna be sucking on that toothpick like it was his last cigarette before storming the beach at Normandy in 1944. 
• The Lucky Charm: Orlando Cabrera is no longer the player he was in the prime of his career, when he was a Gold Glove middle infielder and top-of-the-order hitter, who could surprise you with his power.  However, O.C. has been to the postseason six times in the last seven years and with six different franchises.  Last year, the Charm hit a crucial homer in Game 163 to lift the Twins into the playoffs, but other than that, he's struggled in October, with just a 609 OPS.

The primary appeal of the Reds is that they are a team which very few fans outside of Cincinnati will have any familiarity with.  They have an MVP candidate, Joey Votto, who was best know, prior to this season, for having missed time due to anxiety.  Cabrera, Rolen, and Bronson Arroyo have considerable postseason experience, but few other Reds do.  Those who haven't had the opportunity to watch them play are going to be wildly surprised by how players like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and   Edinson Volquez are.  They will be even more of an underdog in perception than they are in reality just because they have so few household names.  That's exactly the kind of thing that pumps up your NLF.

Narrative Likability Factor: A

Offseason Prospectus #19: The Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have gotten an uncharacteristic flurry of national press this week (I highly recommend this article at MLB.com), thanks in large part to their surprise signing of Cuban phenom, Aroldis Chapman.  Aroldis may not be a household name, but he's gotten about as much buzz as any 21-year-old pitcher not named Stephen Strasburg.  Like Strasburg, he can throw in the triple digits, as he proved last spring during the World Baseball Classic.  Unlike Strasburg, there is very little evidence by which to predict Chapman's potential or longevity.  While scouts and even average fans got the chance to see every college start Strasburg made during his exceptional 2009 season at San Diego State, Chapman has pitched the majority of his innings behind the Iron Curtain, as Cuba used him sparingly in international play, perhaps as a way of preventing his defection...which seemed, nonetheless, inevitable.  Although he was hardly spectacular during the Classic (0-1, 5.68 ERA), buzz about him dominated coverage of the event, much as buzz about Dice-K dominated the 2006 version.

Chapman is just the latest high-ceiling Latino prospect to join the Reds pitching corps.  In 2008 Cincinnati acquired Dominican right-hander, Edinson Volquez, as part of the Josh Hamilton trade and he immediately rewarded them with a 17-win season in his rookie year.  He was joined by his countryman, Johnny Cueto, a veteran of the Reds system, who has managed solid, if not spectacular, numbers through his first two seasons (20-25, 4.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 290 K, 345 IP).  Cueto will turn 24 in February.  Volquez is 26.

Also on the horizon in Cincinnati are two more Dominicans.  Enerio del Rosario is a 24-year-old reliever who owned the minor leagues in '09, posting a 1.68 ERA in fifty appearance across three levels.  Pedro Viola is a hard-throwing left-hander who has struggled a bit in the high minors, but who the Reds still see as a potential future closer.

The Reds renewed dedication to international development seems to have had them on the verge of a breakthrough season for the last couple of years, but injuries to guys like Volquez, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Aaron Harang stymied the transition.  In 2010, the Reds again look like a promising squad on paper, but possess very few proven commodities.

Free Agents:

Jonny Gomes (29) OF
Kip Wells (32) RHRP

Arbitration Eligible:

Jared Burton (29) RHRP
Nick Masset (28) RHRP

ETA 2010?:

Yonder Alonso (23) 1B
Aroldis Chapman (22) LHSP
Todd Frazier (24) 2B/LF
Enerio del Rosario (24) RHRP
Pedro Viola (26) LHRP

The Reds look to me like an organization which is a bit in disarray, being pulled in different directions.  The administration of Wayne Krivsky, who preceded Walt Jocketty as GM, did a fairly good job drafting and developing, and the Reds have produced a string of solid in-house run-producers, including Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce.  On the other hand, Krivsky also hired a manager, Dusty Baker, who, though widely respected, also has a widely publicized Achilles heel when it comes to dealing with young players, often either distrusting them or, in the case of pitchers, exhausting them (the most famous example, of course, is Mark Prior).  Thus, Jocketty's main goal in his first year as GM was balancing the roster with some veteran presences that Baker could identify with, most notably Scott Rolen and Arthur Rhodes.

In his first two seasons as the Reds manager, Baker has again been accused of pushing his top starting pitcher too hard, as both Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez suffered injuries and ineffectiveness after heavy workloads.  Baker, it is apparent, will not be changing his approach after almost two decades as a big-league manager, so the front office (assuming they plan on retaining him) will need to provide him with durable veteran arms for the rotation and the bullpen, in order to protect their young investments.

Bronson Arroyo is the prototype.  Arroyo is a rubber-armed as any pitcher in baseball, having logged 200+ innings in each of the last five seasons, generally improving as the year unfolds (4.81 career ERA before the All-Star break, 3.66 after).  He's notched the Reds fifteen victories in each of the last two seasons and last year was among the most underrated pitchers in baseball.  After a typically inconsistent first six weeks, Arroyo managed a 3.11 ERA in his final 26 starts, and piled up 220 innings.  If he can find a way to hit the ground running in April, he might finally be recognized as one of the better pitchers in the National League.

Aaron Harang has been the most noticeable casualty of the Baker era in Cincinnati.  The former Ace, who won 32 games and pitched 466 innings in '06 and '07, had Dusty's mouth watering when he arrived prior to '08 and in April and May of that year Harang average 106 pitches per start.  And that's before Baker brought him out to pitch four innings of relief on two days rest!  At that moment Harang's ERA was 3.32.  Since that time, Harang has gone 10-25 with a 4.87 ERA.  He's planning on starting a support group with the other victims of Dusty Baker's overconfidence: Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, Bill Swift, John Burkett, Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz, and Carlos Zambrano.

The Reds season rides on the health of the rotation.  When Arroyo, Harang, Volquez, and Cueto are at the top of their game, they are among the better front fours in the NL, and Chapman, Homer Bailey, and Micah Owings are high-octane options at #5.  However, the risk that two or more of these guys will spend the majority of 2010 on the DL is very, very high.

Unfortunately, the Reds production on offense will also be largely a matter of health.  Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Ramon Hernandez were among the many Reds who missed time in '09, and they are the core of the lineup, along with underappreciated second-basemen, Brandon Phillips.  There is reason to believe that Votto is on the verge of becoming one of the premier hitters in the National League, as he posted a 981 OPS in 131 games in '09.  If everybody comes back healthy and the rotation can reasonably limit the damage other teams do in the Great American Smallpark, the Reds have enough thunder to keep pace with most of their NL Central opponents.

There will be some interesting Spring Training battles at Reds camp, as Cincinnati doesn't have anybody locked in at shortstop, in center, or left field.  There are several interesting candidates for the outfield.  Chris Dickerson got off to a slow start in his rookie year, but was on a bit of a role, hitting .318 in a 43 game stretch during the summer, before an injury ended his season early.  He'll be fully healthy in 2010 and is likely to get a long look as the Reds leadoff man.

His primary competition will be the man who was expected to fill that role last year.  Willy Taveras, who also spent an extended stretch on the disabled list, had the worst year of his largely mediocre career, posting an downright anorexic OPS of 559.  Taveras lives on his speed, as represented by his league-leading 68 steals in '08 and he is a quality defender, but in the last two years his OBP has been only .293 (his slugging is even lower!), indicating that until he can create more opportunities for himself, he will probably be limited to pinch-running and defensive replacement duties.

The Reds long-term outfield plans include both of the 25-year-olds who will get long looks this spring.  If Drew Stubbs proves he has the range for centerfield, he may best both Taveras and Dickerson.  Stubbs stole 46 bases at AAA in '09, then nabbed ten more in a limited audition with the Reds, also showing surprising power, with 8 HR in 180 AB.  His plate discipline is decent, as his BB/K rate improved every year in the minors, but he will have to make another moderate step at the major league level if he hopes to become a premier leadoff man.
 
Walt Jocketty landed Wladimir Belentien from the Mariners for surprisingly little (Robert Manuel, a 26-year-old relief pitching prospect).  Belentien has "light-tower power," as he displayed when he hit the longest homer of the 2009 season, and he mashed 122 HR in the minor leagues, before the age of 24 (17.4 AB/HR).  But, like many young power-hitters, he has weaknesses which have been exploited at the big-league level.  If this youngster starts getting regular at-bats and makes adjustments, he has cleanup hitter potential.

At shortstop the Reds options are not quite as promising.  Paul Janish is the prototypical good-field, no-hit kind of middle infielder that usually doesn't fly on a team that doesn't already possess spectacular offensive depth.  Adam Rosales is a fairly promising hitter, but the fact that the Reds spent much of '08 and '09 trying him at every other position on the infield suggests they don't have much faith in him as their everyday shortstop.  The same can be said of Drew Sutton, who's shown some pop (20 HR, 931 OPS at AA in '08), but is best-suited for second base, where he's currently buried behind the Reds most established player.  The 24-year-old Chris Valaika will also get an audition, as his defensive consistency improved dramatically at AAA (only 7 errors in '09, after making 24+ in each of the two previous seasons), but that corresponded to a dramatic season-long slump at the plate (his OPS dropped by 228 points).

In the end, this may be a good opportunity for Jocketty to bring in another veteran presence.  Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, and Jerry Hairston remain unsigned.  Or, as he did with Belentien, he could chase a solid prospect who has fallen out of favor with his current organization, as Jed Lowrie has in Boston and Emmanuel Burris has in San Francisco.

This is an important season for Cincinnati.  Baker's contract expires at the end of the year, as do those for Harang and Arroyo.  If the Reds can turn in their first winning season since 2000, I expect all will be brought back (though the pitchers may have to settle for smaller salaries).  If they don't, I expect none will, and the rebuilding project will begin afresh with Jocketty as sole architect.

Projected 2010 Opening Day Roster:

CF Chris Dickerson (L)
SS Orlando Cabrera (R FA
2B Brandon Phillips (R)
1B Joey Votto (L)
RF Jay Bruce (L)
3B Scott Rolen (R)
LF Wladimir Belentien (R)
C Ramon Hernandez (R)
SP Bronson Arroyo (R)

SP Edinson Volquez (R)
SP Aaron Harang (R)
SP Johnny Cueto (R)
SP Homer Bailey (R)

CL Francisco Cordero (R)
SU Nick Masset (R)
SU Danny Herrera (L)
LOOGY Arthur Rhodes (L)
MR Jared Burton (R)
MR Enerio del Rosario (R)
SWING Micah Owings (R)

C Ryan Hanigan (R)
IF Paul Janish (R)
IF Adam Rosales (R)
OF Willy Taveras (R)
OF Drew Stubbs (R)