Fantastic Thoughts: "A. J. Pierzynski is no longer very good...if he ever was." (Fantasy Baseball Catcher Preview)

I'm going to keep things simple and leadoff with a quote from last year:


"There are two logical approaches, in my opinion, assuming you're in a league that uses only one catcher.  Either you spend one of your first three picks on Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, or Brian McCann, or you wait until the very end of the draft and hope to strike gold with a flyer and some diligent waiver wire work.  Most everything in between - the Molinas, the A. J. Pierzynski's, etc. - aren't worth the money or draft position you will have to waste on them.  There will be a couple catchers who emerge this season with comparable stats (.275, 70 R, 15 HR, 70 RBI).  The key is identifying the potential candidates so you can jump on them in April or May, because in all likelihood, you won't be the only one combing the waiver wire for a better backstop."


That .275-70-15-70 line was even more unattainable than usual for backstops in 2010.  Only one catcher topped 70 R (Mauer).  Only four topped 70 RBI (Mauer, McCann, Martinez, and Kurt Suzuki).  And only five hit upwards of .275 in 400 or more plate appearances (Mauer, Martinez, Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, and John Buck).  Which only further emphasizes my point that it's silly to pay for a middle-tier catcher when you could've had players like Buck, Ruiz, Posey, and Miguel Olivo for next to nothing.  Moreover, some of the usually "safe" middle-tier selections - Pierzynski, the Molinas, Hernandez - suffered significantly down seasons.  


The result is that we've got a pretty top-heavy class in 2011.  


1. Joe Mauer, MIN
2. Victor Martinez, DET
3. Brian McCann, ATL


Nothing's changed.  These were my top three in 2010 and have all been top five for most of their careers.  I do think McCann is somewhat of a distant third, just because he doesn't hit for a high average and doesn't have the luxury of getting some "off days" at DH, but he's also got more power than Mauer or V-Mart.  


4. Buster Posey, SFG
5. Geovany Soto, CHC
6. Carlos Santana, CLE


I've seen a lot of analysts ranking Posey as high as #1 or #2, but I just don't see any reason why we should believe he's immune to the sophomore slump.  Sure, his talent is superlative, but I'd like to see at least one more year of exceptional production before I'm ready to rank him alongside a three-time batting champ and a four-time All-Star.  I actually flirted with dropping him to fifth.  The reason?  Do you know who led all catchers (with 300+ AB) in OPS last season?  It wasn't Posey.  It wasn't Mauer, Martinez, or McCann.  It was Geovany Soto.  He only got 97 starts, but hit .280 with 17 HR and 53 RBI.  Now that Lou Pinella had fled Chicago, Soto will likely be in line for increased playing time and could be considered an elite catching option by this time next year.


7. Jorge Posada, NYY
8. Miguel Montero, ARZ
9. Matt Wieters, BAL
10. Mike Napoli, TEX


Sadly, this is what passes for "tried and true" among the 2011 catching corps: a 39-year-old DH with several trips to the DL in his recent past, a 27-year-old who's started upwards of 75 games only once in his career, a former blue-chip prospect who had a sub-700 OPS in 2010, and a defensively-challenged power-hitter who doesn't have a clear hold on at-bats with his new franchise.  I rank them this way because I assume at least two of the four will finish well inside the top ten in terms of production by the end of the season, but in a one-catcher league I wouldn't touch any of these guys unless they fell deep on draft day or came at a significantly reduced rate (i.e. under $10).


11. Russell Martin, NYY
12. J. P. Arencibia, TOR
13. John Buck, FLA


These are the most interesting late-round flier/sleeper candidates.  Martin used to be a stud, but after two down years, the Dodgers essentially gave up on him.  If he's healthy, he's a solid bet for comeback of the year in New York, playing alongside his childhood hero, Derek Jeter.  The Jays showed their faith in Arencibia by letting Buck walk and trading Napoli to Texas.  The rookie has serious power potential at the Skydome, but could be an average drain in 5X5 leagues.  Buck is coming off a spectacular breakout season in which he was a top-five fantasy catcher, but he'd look dangerously like a fluke even if he weren't moving to a much less friendly ballpark in Florida.  


14. Carlos Ruiz, PHI
15. Kurt Suzuki, OAK
16. Yadier Molina, STL
17. Miguel Olivo, SEA
18. A. J. Pierzynski, CWS


You probably aren't interested in any of these guys unless it's a two-catcher league, but in that format they are quite valuable.  All are "iron-men" types whose managers keep them in the lineup as much for defense as anything else, but all those starts lead to decent totals in the counting categories.  You just have to cross your fingers that they won't destroy your average.


19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, BOS
20. Chris Iannetta, COL
21. Jason Castro, HOU
22. Jonathan Lucroy, MIL


This is the second tier of high-risk, high-reward candidates.  They're all fairly young.  They've all got some upside.  And they all seem in line for full-time jobs.  That could certainly change.  Both Saltalamacchia and Iannetta have been given chances before.  They've always bombed.  But this could be the year, right?


23. Jesus Flores, WAS
24. Ramon Hernandez, CIN
25. Ryan Doumit, PIT
26. John Jaso, TB
27. Chris Snyder, PIT
28. Ryan Hanigan, CIN
29. Kelly Shoppach, TB 


When it comes to catching platoons, it really comes down to how much room you have on your rosters and how much you're willing to work for it.  Last year in Cincinnati, Hernandez and Hanigan combined for 55 R, 12 HR, 88 RBI, and a .298 AVG.  If you were cagey enough to have the right guy in your lineup every night, that line would've been equivalent to drafting a top-five backstop.  Can you get Cincinnati's daily lineup delivered straight to your phone?  I bet you could.  Will you?


The more reasonable sleeper here is Flores, who, before losing nearly two years to surgery, seemed to be developing into a solid hitter.  He's still just 26.  The Nationals catching situation, which also involves Pudge Rodriguez (questing after 3000 hits) and top prospect Wilson Ramos, is crowded, so Flores is unlikely to get a lot of opportunities in D.C., but there are several team's that might be willing to give him an everyday job and will be watching he progress closely during Spring Training.


30. Hank Conger, LAA
31. Wilson Ramos, WAS
32. Jesus Montero, NYY
33. Tyler Flowers, CWS


These are baseball's best major-league ready catching prospects.  Unfortunately, there's a strong chance most of them won't see substantial time in 2011.  Mike Scioscia seems committed to a folly named Jeff Mathis in Anaheim.  The White Sox resigned A. J. Pierzynski, despite a poor showing in 2010.  Wilson Ramos is blocked by Flores and Pudge; Montero by Martin and Posada.  However, injury or ineffectiveness could supply them with opportunity.  Were that to happen, they would immediately be fantasy relevant, even worthy of consideration inside the top 12-15 catchers.  


34. Rod Barajas, LAD
35. Alex Avila, DET
36. Yorvit Torrealba, SD
37. Jason Kendall, KC
38. Ivan Rodriguez, WAS


Somewhere, somehow your draft must have gone horribly wrong.

R.I.P. 2010 White Sox

Way back in March, I very tentatively predicted the White Sox to win a tight AL Central race.  As it turned out, I wasn't terribly far off, but in early June I was feeling pretty silly.  At the start of play on June 9th, the Sox were 9.5 games back, trailing both the Twins and Tigers and 9 games under .500.  They looked a lot like their crosstown rivals - old legs, slow bats, and tired arms - and Ozzie's preseason promise, that they would return to the style that led to their championship in 2005, seemed like mere posturing.  But Ozzie kept telling the naysayers, "There's a lot of season left."

From the middle of June all the way to the All-Star Break, the White Sox became, to everybody's great surprise, the best team in baseball.  First they had a modest four-game winning streak, their first of the year. Than they reeled off eleven in a row.  Than, only a week later, nine more.  All told, from the 9th of June to the 15th of July they went 25-5 and they took over first place, where they remained for more than a month.

However, with the exception of a seven-game winning streak earlier in the month, the wheels have completely come off down the stretch.  The Sox have played pretty much .500 ball for the last six weeks and you can't make up ground on a good team like the Twins playing .500 ball.  And you especially can't keep losing to that team, as the Sox have done all year long, capped off by a three-game sweep at the Cell this week.  All told, Chicago went 5-14 this season against their division rival, easily their lowest winning percentage against any team.

Although they aren't heading back to the postseason, I think Ozzie, Ken Williams, and the rest of the franchise can be very pleased with their performance in 2010.  They will certainly finish with a winning record, and may approach 90 wins.  "Ozzie-ball," loosely characterized as the emphasis on durable starting pitching, aggressive baserunning, and swinging for the fences, has had the predicted Renaissance.  Juan Pierre currently leads the major leagues with 55 steals, Alex Rios is 10th with 33, and   Omar Vizquel, Alexei Ramirez, and Andruw Jones will all finish in the double digits.  Paul Konerko has had a resurgent, MVP-caliber season, hitting .322 with 36 HR and 104 RBI.  Rios, Ramirez, Jones, and Carlos Quentin have also chipped in considerably in the power department.  The Sox accomplished a relatively rare feat, finished in the top five in the AL in both homers (4th) and steals (3rd).

Perhaps more important than anything they do on offense, however, is the fact that the ChiSox staff consistently pitches deep into games.  The front three of Mark Buehrle, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd, though not among the league leaders in wins or ERA, having all been solid workhorses.  None have missed starts and all are on pace for 200+ innings.  The ability of this rotation to keep their team in games is evidenced by the fact they are fourth in the AL in relief wins, even though they twelfth in the league in relief innings.

Ken Williams once again proved himself to be one of the most creative, competitive, and effective GMs in the game.  Last season he gambled on Alex Rios, taking the outfielder's massive contract off waivers from Toronto.  Rios played horribly for the Sox down the stretch during '09, but this year he has been among their biggest contributors and, at 29, he future once again looks pretty bright.  Pierre, Vizquel, and Jones were added for a combined salary under $5 Million and all have played key roles.  The White Sox would not have hung around the race for this long without them.  A similar claim could be made for the cheap veteran pitchers Williams brought onboard last season, but who really paid off this year, J. J. Putz and Freddy Garcia.  As the pennant race neared, Williams was aggressive, as usual, netting Edwin Jackson, who has been outstanding since his arrival (3-1, 2.94 ERA) and Manny Ramirez, who hasn't been able to rekindle the September magic his brought with him to L.A. in 2008.

Sure, Williams wasn't perfect.  Mark Teahen and Mark Kotsay were marked busts.  As was Jake Peavy. But, as is common with Williams, he hedges his bets well enough that the franchise will not be sabotaged heading forward, even though the current roster is fairly expensive and fairly old.  The Sox have almost a $105 Million payroll this season, but only $75 Million committed next year.

As such, it will be a busy offseason for Kenny.  The Sox have a solid core to build around.  The rotation is set (Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, Jackson, Peavy [hopefully]).  Rios, Quentin, Ramirez, and Gordon Beckham give the lineup a solid young foundation.  Bobby Jenks, Chris Sale, and Matt Thornton will continue to pitch the late innings.  There are, however, three big decisions:

1.)  Paul Konerko will be a free agent.  The White Sox longest tenured player will probably finish in the top five in MVP voting this season, for the first time in his career.  Such production was a steal at $12 Million for 2010.  Konerko is, however, 35-years-old.  He's never been particularly good in the field and the footraces between him and Jim Thome are the stuff of South Side legends.  How much can the White Sox commit to the "face of the franchise" when he is coming off what will almost surely be the best year of his career.  Maybe the Yankee's can pay Jeter for "what he's meant to the franchise," as many are predicting they will, but with less than half as much payroll, the Sox don't have such a luxury.

2.)  J. J. Putz will also be going on the free agent market.  After a disastrous year with the Mets, Putz regained his form in Chicago.  In all likelihood, he will be looking to get another opportunity to close, as he did with great success for the Mariners from '06-'08.  He is the only player in the Sox bullpen with closing experience, beside Bobby Jenks, the current closer, whose performance has declined dramatically over the last three seasons.  The rotund fireballer, Jenks, was once a fan-favorite in Chicago, as he got the last out in the 2005 World Series and had a record-setting streak of perfect innings a couple years later.  He needs only 28 more saves to become the franchise leader, passing Bobby Thigpen.  Don't be surprised, however, if Kenny Williams makes the unsentimental decision of trading (or even releasing) Jenks this offseason, rather than paying an expensive arbitration award for a relief pitcher whose ERA is 4.44.  That could free him up to negotiate with Putz.

3.)  Konerko and Jenks are obviously more talented, but no single player encompasses the soul of White Sox baseball during the Ozzie Guillen era quite like A. J. Pierzynski.  Pierzynski clearly gets off a little on being "the most hated player in the game" and his energy and doggedness are clearly contagious.  And, he is the picture of consistency: good defense, decent power, decent average, and, most importantly, utterly dependable, never making a trip to the D.L.  When the season began, it looked all but certain that it would be Pierzynki's last as a White Sox.  Chicago's top prospect, Tyler Flowers, was coming off a monstrous season at AA.  However, Flowers progress slowed dramatically at AAA, as his OPS dropped more than 200 points, and now one has to question whether he's ready to fill A. J.'s shoes in 2011.  

Fantastic Thoughts: "Trade for Aaron Harang. No, seriously."

With approximated 20% of the season in the books, it's time to start sizing up your fantasy roster.  Many owners, at this juncture, make one of two mistakes:

1.) Because they are sitting at the bottom of the table, they decide to punt, either completely abandoning their team or, in keeper leagues, starting to play exclusively for next year.

2.) Because they've gotten off to a hot start, they superstitiously sit on their roster, denying any potential for improvement.

With so much season left, it's pretty much guaranteed that you've got a hot streak and a cold streak still in front of you, perhaps a prolonged one.  If you do get hot after a bad start and you end up finishing in second or third place, you're going to really regret unloading Placido Polanco for a prospect in May or sitting on Chris Davis when you could've picked up Brennan Boesch.  Similarly, if you blow that double-digit lead, your decision to stubbornly stick with Ben Sheets could really burn you.

At this point, you're looking for the classic "buy low, sell high" candidates.  Below, I'll provide you with some of my favorites, but first let me offer some strategies for identifying your own:

BABIP:
Batting Average on Balls in Play is the Hansel of statistics.  It's so hot right now.  It's main benefit is identifying "luck" on both sides of the ball.  If a hitter has a BABIP way higher than his career norms, he's finding holes at an unsustainable rate.  Everything is dropping in.  If his BABIP is unusually low, he's probably hit his fair share of "at 'em" balls and could be due for a hot streak.  For pitchers, the opposite applies.  High BABIP suggests bad luck, low BABIP suggests the potential for regression.

FIP:
Fielder Independent Pitching measures outcomes that a pitcher can "control."  That is, strikeouts, walks, and homers.  The resulting number looks like a standard ERA.  So, what we can do is compare the FIP, which judges exclusively the pitcher, to the ERA, which is effected by several other factors.  Over time, these numbers will tend to move toward each other.  In 2009, no team had a separation between ERA and FIP of more than half a run.  So, when you see disjunctions of a run or more, you can assume that pitcher is getting burned either by bad defense or bad luck.

Game Logs:  
This is the most effective, but also the most time-consuming method for analyzing players.  At this point in the season, one bad week for a hitter or one bad outing for a pitcher can have a dramatic effect on their ratio statistics (AVG, OPS, ERA, WHIP, etc.).  It's impossible to check these for every player, but for those who you're considering adding, dropping, or trading, it's a must.

HR/FB:
Another stat that goes both ways.  HR/FB works best for veteran players having out of character years because, like BABIP, it's most effective when judged against career norms.  For a hitter, a significantly higher HR/FB rate might suggest inflated power numbers, gained either by playing in homer-friendly parks or just catching some breaks down the lines.  For pitcher, a high HR/FB rate suggests, again, some bad luck or, perhaps, a flurry of unfavorable matchups.

K/BB:
As those who visit the Hippeaux consistently are probably already aware, this is probably my favorite catch-all statistic on both sides of the ball.  In the early going, a particularly high strikeout rate (for a hitter) worries me, because it means he has much less chance for positive outcomes (because getting lucky pretty much requires that you at least put the ball in play) and is thus more susceptible to extended cold streaks.  A low walk rate, although not as detrimental, also limits the opportunity for things like runs and stolen bases, so I'm particularly aware of it in relation to top of the order/speed type players.  On the flip side, a low strikeout rate limits a pitcher's ability to get out of tough situations and makes him more enslaved to his defense.  Therefore, it you're considering a low strikeout rate pitcher (there are plenty of good ones), you should pay close attention to the team behind him.  A high walk rate, particularly in combination with a low strikeout rate, makes run-scoring situations significantly more frequent.

Now, for the cast of the Bi-Lo All-Stars...